Forex News Live Today: The Ultimate Source for Forex News ☀️

Those wide spreads you are seeing in yen crosses are a feature, not a bug

May 1, 2024 | 13:53 pm

I posted here as the first wave of intervention was hitting on why this is a cheap time of day to do it:USD/JPY slammed lowerIf you are unaware of how the forex market works today has been an excellent lesson. Its touted as as a 24 hour market, and it is, but some times of day are characterised by stupidly-thin liquidity. Like, right now its:8:48am in New Zealand, FX desks are fully open6:48am in Sydney - too early to be fully open for interbank trade5:48am in Tokyo4:48am in Singapore and Hong Kong 4:48pm in New York - finished for the day bar a few stagglers9:48pm in LondonYes, the algos are still active, but without interbank liquidity they are beating each other up. This is a very cheap time of day for intervention to get 'bang for the buck' - it doesn't take too much to move FX compared to the thicker liquidity time of day. USD/JPY update, wild swings:Up a big figure from its low - that's only a few spreads in this market. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Broader stock indices snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

May 1, 2024 | 13:09 pm

The broader stock indices have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. The S&P and NASDAQ are ending the day down about -0.34% each. Those declines came after each of the indices were up solidly as Powell finished his press conference.At session highs:Dow Industrial Average average was up 533.27 points. It is ending the day up -87.35 points or 0.23% at 37903.28S&P index was up 60.42 point at session highs. It is ending the day down -17.30 points or -0.34% at 5018.40.NASDAQ index was up 268.40 points at session highs. It is ending down -52.34 points or -0.33% at 15605.48.The small-cap Russell 2000 was up 43.79 points at session highs. It is ending the day up 6.32 points or 0.32% at 1980.22.Some of the individual winners and losers:Meta Platforms rose $8.93 or 2.08%Amazon rose $3.86 or 2.21%Nvidia fell $-33.99 or -3.93%Google rose $1.01 or 0.62%Microsoft rose $5.80 or 1.49% Apple fel $1.03 or -0.60% ahead of earnings after the close tomorrowTesla fell $-3.28 or -1.79% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Fed pushes back against rate hike fears

May 1, 2024 | 13:05 pm

FOMC decision: Interest rates unchanged, Fed cites lack of further progress on inflationPowell opening statement: Further progress on inflation not assured, path uncertainPowell Q&A: I do think policy is restritive and weighing on demandThe full statement from the May 2024 FOMC rate decision.What we learned from Powell and the Federal Reserve interest rate decisionUS April ISM manufacturing 49.2 vs 50.0 expectedJOLTs job openings for March 8.488M versus 8.686M estimate. Lowest since Feb 2021US March construction spending -0.2% versus +0.3% expectedUS April ADP employment +192K vs +175K expectedECB's de Cos: Eurozone inflation will fluctuate this year then fall to 2% next yearAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 growth estimate dips to 3.3% from 3.9%US weekly EIA oil inventories +7265K vs -1100K expectedUS April S&P Global final manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 49.9 prelimQuarterly refunding announcement: Will increase TIPS and bill auction sizesMarkets:Gold up $29 to $2314US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 4.63%WTI crude oil down $2.83 to $79.10Bitcoin down 4.4%S&P 500 down 0.1%NZD leads, USD lagsThe market was anxious ahead of the FOMC decision, particularly in light of Monday's hot wage data. That was compounded by some poor earnings numbers from chipmakers, Starbucks and CVS.Still, the US dollar retraced some of the gains from earlier in the week before settling into a range ahead of the announcement. The statement was largely a non-event but didn't contain any kind of hawkish shift and surprised somewhat with a QT taper of $35B instead of $30B expected.The larger round of dollar selling came after Powell pushed back against repeated attempts to bait him into a hawkish shift. He made it clear that the Fed's base-case is either to cut rates or wait longer for greater confidence in inflation falling. He said also said that a couple ticks higher in the unemployment rate wouldn't be enough for cuts.The dollar fell across the board as he spoke but towards the end of the press conference, that move reversed. Equities also gave back all the gains and more. The market may be increasingly convinced that inflation isn't going to come down, or there could be fears about the economy or overheated AI tech trades.Generally though, it takes a day or so to sort through the FOMC and it might be particularly tough this time because of the turn of the month and looming non-farm payrolls report.Quotable from Powell:“I think it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike. I do think it’s clear that policy is restrictive. We believe, over time, it will be sufficiently restrictive.” This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, 2 May 2024, Bank of Japan minutes

May 1, 2024 | 12:58 pm

The Bank of Japan minutes are from the meeting held on March 18 and 19. Given we had a more recent meeting (the one on April 25 and 26) these minutes are not expected to provide much fresh insight.As for the yen, its been given a little respite by the market (sell the USD fact) response to the expected FOMC and Powell (a little less dovish and on hold for longer - as expected and as discounted into market prices). But, respite is all it is, buy the dip will be the background for USD/JPY again today. This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican Peso climbs after Powell’s comments, FOMC decision

May 1, 2024 | 12:58 pm

The Mexican Peso recovered some ground against the US Dollar on Wednesday as traders braced for a busy economic docket in the United States (US).

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 2 May, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

May 1, 2024 | 12:57 pm

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

A review of the price action in the major markets before, during and after

May 1, 2024 | 12:42 pm

An Executive Summary of Fed Chair Powell's CommentsFederal Reserve Policy and Regulatory Framework:Powell emphasized the significance of completing the Basel 3 process, underscoring it as a critical regulatory priority for the Federal Reserve. The Fed remains committed to carrying out the Basel 3 endgame, although no specific policy or process decisions have been made yet.Interest Rates and Monetary Policy:The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious and patient approach towards any potential rate cuts. Powell highlighted that significant economic markers, such as meaningful rises in unemployment or persistent inflation trends, would be necessary triggers for considering rate adjustments. He noted that while some global counterparts might be considering rate cuts due to slower growth, the U.S. economic strength affords the luxury of patience.Inflation and Economic Growth:Powell remains optimistic about managing inflation sustainably without causing labor market dislocations. He acknowledged the challenges of achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target, attributing current inflationary pressures partly to wage increases outpacing productivity. Despite recent progress, Powell indicated that inflation remains above the desired level, and the path to reducing it is uncertain and likely longer than previously anticipated.Labor Market:The labor market’s condition is a crucial factor in the Fed's policy decisions. Powell expressed confidence in the possibility of reducing inflation without significant labor market upheavals. He also noted the ongoing tightness in the labor market, with nominal wage growth easing but still posing potential inflationary risks.Political Influence:Powell explicitly stated that pending elections and political events do not influence the Fed’s policy decisions. The focus remains strictly on economic indicators and maintaining the dual mandate of controlling inflation and sustaining employment.Policy Stance and Future Outlook:The Federal Reserve plans to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance as long as necessary to bring inflation down to its target. The decision-making will continue to be data-driven, focusing on new economic information and its implications for inflation and growth. Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to its long-term goals, underscoring the importance of not adjusting policy prematurely based on fluctuating economic signals.Overall Economic Conditions:Powell noted the difficulty in forecasting economic conditions, acknowledging the unexpected persistence of certain inflationary pressures and the unpredictability of productivity trends. He remains committed to adjusting policies as more data becomes available, with a careful balance to avoid disrupting financial markets or economic stability.In the markets:The US stocks moved higher through the decision to the end of the press conference, but is moving back lower post presser:Dow industrial average up 460.62 points versus a gain of 120.36 points just prior to the decision. The current price is up 275 pointsS&P index 50.37 points points versus -11.64 points just prior to the decision. The current prices up 14.99 pointsNASDAQ index 239.91 points versus -37.37 points just prior to the decision. The current prices up 79 pointsUS yields move lower from the start to the end, and is modestly higher post presser. :4.964%, -8.2 basis points versus 5.0206% just prior to the decision. The current yield is at 4.953%.4.649%, -7.3 basis points versus 4.697% just prior to the decision. The current yield is at 4.646%.4.630%, -5.4 basis points versus 4.651%, just prior to the decision. The current yield is at 4.6 to 8%4.744%, -4.5 basis points versus 4.744%, just prior to the decision. The current yield is at 4.746%In the forex: The EURUSD moved higher through (lower USD) through most of his speech, but once it reached the upper swing area between 1.0722 and 1.07346, sellers have entered and pushed the price back toward the 1.0700 level and the 100 hour moving average and 200 hour moving average between 1.06908 and 1.07024.USDJPY: The USDJPY could not get below the 100 hour MA target at 157.00 area. The price has moved back above the swing area at 157.232. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian Dollar rides market churn as dust settles post-Fed

May 1, 2024 | 12:36 pm

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is largely flat on Wednesday as broader markets await a key appearance from the US Federal Reserve.

Gold prices surge as Federal Reserve holds rates and modifies balance sheet policy

May 1, 2024 | 12:29 pm

Gold price reclaimed the $2,300 milestone on Wednesday after dropping to a two-week low of $2,281, sponsored by a rise in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) in April.

US Dollar stumbles following Chair Powell's remarks

May 1, 2024 | 12:28 pm

The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to 105.45 on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to hold rates at 5.25-5.50% and Chair Powell’s cautious comments.

Forex Today: The Dollar lost its grip after a steady Fed

May 1, 2024 | 12:17 pm

The Greenback gave away Tuesday’s advance amidst declining US yields across the curve, all after the Fed left its interest rates unchanged, as expected, and Chief Powell ruled out an interest rate hike as the Fed’s next move.

Powell speech: Pending elections are not part of our thinking

May 1, 2024 | 12:11 pm

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

Powell speech: Restrictive monetary policy needs more time to do its job

May 1, 2024 | 12:04 pm

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

Jerome Powell speaks on policy outlook after keeping interest rate steady

May 1, 2024 | 12:02 pm

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions following the April 30 - May 1 policy meeting on Wednesday.

Powell speech: Economy has been very hard for forecasters to predict

May 1, 2024 | 11:58 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks higher as Fed talks down lack of inflation progress

May 1, 2024 | 11:54 am

After this week's backslide, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is stuck in a rut, dragging the index below 38,000.00 as investors buckle down for another rate call from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Dollar moves lower. Stocks higher as markets react positively to Powell's comments

May 1, 2024 | 11:51 am

The markets are reacting favorably to the initial comments from Fed's Powell at his press conference. It Powell says that it would be unlikely that the next policy move will be a hike taking that risk out of the equation at least for now. :The NASDAQ index is now up close to 1.13%. The Dow industrial average is also up 1.23% while the S&P index is up 0.84%.Rates have also moved lower with the 2-year now down nine basis points at 4.956%. 10 year yield is down nine basis points at 4.595%in the Forex market:EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved about the 100-day moving average 1.07018, tilting the technical passport to the upside. The next target is being tested between the swing area at 1.0722 – 1.07346. Above that is the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.07425USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved down toward its 100-day moving average at 156.994. The low price has just reached 157.065. Prices also below the swing level at 157.232. That is now close risk for traders.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has moved above its 100-day moving average at 1.25125, and next looks toward its 200-day moving average at 1.25519 and it to a bar moving average at 1.25656. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Powell speech: No obvious connection between easing in financial conditions and inflation

May 1, 2024 | 11:51 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

EUR/USD climbs after Fed reaffirms policy outlook, QT taper on the cards

May 1, 2024 | 11:47 am

EUR/USD bumped slightly higher after the Federal Reserve (Fed) released its latest rate outlook, with the US central bank citing an improvement in inflationary conditions, though targets remain unhit.

Powell speech: Unlikely that next policy rate move would be a hike

May 1, 2024 | 11:42 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

Powell speech: Gaining greater confidence on inflation moving toward 2% will take longer than expected

May 1, 2024 | 11:40 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

Pan American Silver rally in impulsive structure [video]

May 1, 2024 | 11:40 am

Pan American Silver (PAAS) is a well-established Canadian silver mining company operating globally.

Nikkei blue box offered another buying opportunity

May 1, 2024 | 11:39 am

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of the 1-hour Elliott Wave Charts of Nikkei.

Pound Sterling fluctuates as Federal Reserve hold rates, plans to slow balance sheet reduction

May 1, 2024 | 11:36 am

GBP/USD fluctuates as Federal Reserve hold rates, plans to slow balance sheet reduction The GBP/USD seesaws after the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged but announced that it would slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction beginning in June.

Powell speech: Further progress on inflation is not assured

May 1, 2024 | 11:35 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explains the decision to leave the policy rate, federal funds rate, unchanged at the range of 5.25-5.5% and responds to questions in the post-meeting press conference.

Powell opening statement: Further progress on inflation not assured, path uncertain

May 1, 2024 | 11:32 am

Economy has made considerable progress toward dual goalsIn recent months inflation has shown a lack of progress and we remain highly attentiveInflation still too high, further progress not assuredPrivate domestic final purchases were as strong as the second half of last year, that is an underlying signal for demandSupply and demand for labor has come into better balanceStrong job creation has been met with increased supply but demand still exceeds supplyEconomic outlook is uncertainWe do not expect it will be appropriate to cut until we gain greater confidence inflation moving towards 2%It is likely that gaining greater confidence will take longerWe are prepared to hold rates longer We are also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor marketWe will make decision meeting by meetingSlowing pace of balance sheet runoff will ensure a smooth transitionSlowing pace does not mean balance sheet will shrink to less than it would otherwiseThere's nothing pointing to rate hikes here and that's been enough to spark a relief rally in risk assets and a dip in the US dollar. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD fluctuates as Federal Reserve hold rates, plans to slow balance sheet reduction

May 1, 2024 | 11:21 am

The GBP/USD seesaws after the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged but announced that it would slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction beginning in June.

USD/JPY holds losses after Fed decision

May 1, 2024 | 11:16 am

The USD/JPY trades at 157.42 holding daily losses on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to hold rates at 5.25%-5.5%.

Dollar eases slightly, stocks edge up, yields dip after FOMC

May 1, 2024 | 11:10 am

The initial reaction to the FOMC rate decision is for a marginally lower dollar:EURUSD: The EURUSD moved to a new session high and in the process extended above the 200-hour moving out of 1.06902, but still remains below its 100-hour moving average of 1.07018. As noted in the video before the decision, getting about both the 200 and 100-hour moving averages are needed to increase the bullish bias. So far that has not happened.USDJPY: The USDJPY is modestly lower, but remains above the swing area outlined in the video prior to release. That swing area comes in at 157.23. The 100-hour moving average at 156.994 is also a level that would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has moved higher and has moved up to test its 100-hour moving average at 1.25125. However, buyers have not been able to push through that first target. It would take a move above that level to increase bullish bias at least in the short term.A snapshot of the stock market nine minutes after the rate decision:Dow industrial average up 146 points versus a gain of 120.36 points just prior to the decisionS&P index -5.92 points versus -11.64 points just prior to the decisionNASDAQ index -7.7 points versus -37.37 points just prior to the decisionIn the US debt market yields are down a couple of basis points 11 minutes after the rate decision:5.001%, -4.4 basis points versus 5.0206% just prior to the decision4.678%, -4.5 basis points versus 4.697% just prior to the decision4.636%, -4.8 basis points versus 4.651%, just prior to the decision4.737%, -5.1 basis points versus 4.744%, just prior to the decisionThe market sees 32 basis points of cuts vs 30 bps before the release This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

United States Fed Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (5.5%)

May 1, 2024 | 11:00 am

United States Fed Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (5.5%)

Morgan Stanley expects US CPI to surprise to the downside in April

May 1, 2024 | 09:55 am

This is worth thinking about as we await the FOMC decision. From Morgan Stanley:We expect inflation data “to reverse to downside surprises in April. .. Several data series indicate a rapid deceleration in rents. .. Financial Services inflation is linked with stock market returns, and the reversal in the S&P 500 in April will likely push this volatile component of inflation indices down .. Continued China deflation should keep US goods prices broadly in deflation ..”Also notable is the ongoing decline in oil prices. They're down 3.4% so far today, which is a good start for May inflation. That comes after a slight decline in April oil prices, though it was back-weighted in the month, so won't offer much help until May anyway. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Starbucks Earnings News: Caffeine crash hits investors as SBUX slides 16%

May 1, 2024 | 09:23 am

Starbucks (SBUX) stock has collapsed on Wednesday following quarterly earnings that show a major slowdown in consumer spending in the US and China.

US Dollar declines after mixed data, Fed in sight

May 1, 2024 | 09:20 am

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading mildly lower on the day at 106.2 ahead of the highly-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decision.

European equity close: UK slides with the continent on holiday

May 1, 2024 | 08:33 am

It's May Day in Europe and that kept most markets closed but not the UK. The FTSE 100 ultimately ended the day at the lows, down 0.3%. The index touched a record yesterday but eventually gave it all back and has now stalled. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Surge in construction job openings comes to an end with a sharp tumble lower in March

May 1, 2024 | 08:21 am

The JOLTs job openings declined by -325K in the month of March. Within that report, there was an oversized decline in the Construction sector. More specifically, the construction sector showed a decline of -182K job openings for March. That took the job openings from 456K in February to 274K in March. That is quite a sharp move to the downside (see chart above) from an absolute level and also on a % basis (the decline was -40%). We know rates have moved higher in 2024, but at the end of March (the JOLTS report was for March), the 10-year yield was at 4.21%. Rates in the 10-year sector (and across the curve) have since moved to a high last week of 4.739%, up about 53 basis points (10 year yield is now at 4.68%) . That's a 12.5% increase. Will that hike in rates have a further dampening impact on the construction industry and job openings as rates dampen demand? You can argue that it was a one-off. Maybe seasonals impacted in a negative way. Maybe the spring weather will lead to a rebound regardless of the higher rates. What we know is the supply of homes is still too low. That infrastructure build is still in the pipeline. As a result, a softening of job openings in construction is a head-scratcher especially ahead of the run higher in rates. . However, with the Fed focused on the economy, this is potentially one piece in the puzzle which shows a softening economy in an interest rate-sensitive sector worth noting.The Fed rate decision will be announced at 2 PM ET today. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Oil prices fall to a six-week low after US inventory data

May 1, 2024 | 08:03 am

US oil inventories are filling ahead of driving season.May is typically the strongest month of the year for WTI crude oil prices as the industry switches from building inventories to drawing them as Americans hit the road. Today's numbers showed there will be more oil in storage than thought with crude stockpiles up 7.265 million barres per day compared to a 1.1 million draw expected.Crude oil prices had been climbing ahead of the release but slumped afterwards to the lowest since March 14. Eyes are on the key $80 level now but this looks like a head-and-shoulders top to me.The measured target of the head-and-shoulders would be $74. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling remains vulnerable amid caution ahead of Fed policy decision

May 1, 2024 | 07:48 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its downside below the psychological support of 1.2500 against the US Dollar (USD) during Wednesday’s early American session.

EUR/USD holds mildly up after US data, Fed looms

May 1, 2024 | 07:42 am

The EUR/USD pair is trading mildly higher at 1.0682, with a daily variation of 0.12% on Wednesday’s session.

Gold price edges slightly higher with eyes on Fed's policy decision

May 1, 2024 | 07:41 am

Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds slightly to $2,300 in Wednesday’s early New York session.

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Wavers below 1.2500 as bearish harami looms

May 1, 2024 | 07:33 am

The Pound Sterling is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar following the release of mixed Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from S&P Global and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 7.265M, above expectations (-2.3M) in April 26

May 1, 2024 | 07:30 am

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change came in at 7.265M, above expectations (-2.3M) in April 26

US weekly EIA oil inventories +7265K vs -1100K expected

May 1, 2024 | 07:30 am

Prior was -6368KGasoline +344K vs -1060K expectedDistllates -732K vs -225K expectedRefinery utilization -1.0% vs +0.5% expectedImplied mogas demand vs 8.42 mbpd priorUS production 13.1 mbpd vs 13.1 mbpd priorPrivate oil data from late yesterday:Crude +4906KGasoline -1480KDistillates -2187KCushing +1479KOil prices ticked lower on these numbers though not as much as I would have guessed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces back to $26.60 after weak US Manufacturing PMI report

May 1, 2024 | 07:24 am

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers strongly from four-month low of $26.30 as the United States Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has reported a weak Manufacturing PMI report for April.

Gold buyers make a stand but they'll need a cooperative Fed

May 1, 2024 | 07:22 am

Gold yesterday fell below last week's low and looked like it could be in store for a deeper correction but buyers reappeared today, lifting it $21 to $2306.Naturally, the focus is on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision later. There is angst throughout markets that they could be more-hawkish and potentially put a rate hike on the table.I think that's a low-probability outcome and Powell has a habit of being reassuringly dovish. If that continues, gold could rebound further. If so, the $2340 high from yesterday followed by last week's high of $2352 are levels to watch. A break above those would probably also require something like a soft non-farm payrolls report on Friday but would be a strong signal for the bulls.Beyond that, eyes remain on China for hints of central bank and retail buying. I was also surprised to see buying so strong from Turkey on this chart but it makes sense given the currency instability. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US JOLTs Job Openings misses consensus in March

May 1, 2024 | 07:09 am

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Wednesday that on the final business day of March, the number of job openings reached 8.488 million.

JOLTs job openings for March 8.488M versus 8.686M estimate. Lowest since Feb 2021

May 1, 2024 | 07:01 am

Prior month 8.813M revised from 8.756MJob openings came in at 8.488 million down 1.1 million over the year. The rate was little change to 5.1% in March. The level is the lowest since February 2021. construction jobs fell -182Kfinance and insurance -158Klocal government education +68KQuits rate falls to 2.1% from 2.2% last month.. The total quits for little changed at 3.3 million but was down by 480,000 over the year.Hires was little change of $5.5 million down by 455,000 over the year. The rate at 3.5% is little changed from MarchSeparations including quits, layoffs, and discharges and other separations decreased to 5.2 million (-339,000) the rate change little at 3.3%Overall, the fall in the job openings suggests a weaker employment picture. There has been some uncertainty regarding this release. Are companies inflating their job openings in order to keep the pipeline open for essential workers.Regarding the quits rate, it's decline is also a tilt to a softer jobs picture. In March 2023 the quits rate was higher at 2.5%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US April ISM manufacturing 49.2 vs 50.0 expected

May 1, 2024 | 07:00 am

Prior was 50.3Prices paid 60.9 vs 55.8 priorEmployment 48.6 vs 47.1 priorNew orders 49.1 vs 51.4 priorInventories 48.2 vs 48.2 priorProduction 51.3 vs 54.6 priorThis is a slowdown but the market reaction will be tempered by the hotter prices paid number. I don't find the rise in prices to be a shock given commodity prices, particularly oil.Comments in the report:“Conditions are improving as demand is starting to recover. Costs continue to be a major concern as suppliers that rapidly increased prices in the follow-up from COVID-19 are slow to return to pre-pandemic levels.” [Chemical Products]“Sales continue to exceed expectations in 2024. The forecasted dip in commercial vehicle production volumes appears to be avoided. Operational output is still strong, and the supply chain has the capacity to support. International supply chain risks have been minimized, but the frequency of supplier insolvencies or bankruptcies appears to be increasing.” [Transportation Equipment]“Order flow has stabilized. It took some customers longer to replenish their supply chain network after the fourth-quarter rush we commonly have. Order rates are expected to remain stable through August.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]“Some small indications of market improvement in China for our instruments and technology. Recovery is still slower than we had hoped, and macroeconomic uncertainty remains in Europe and the Middle East, as well as domestically in the U.S. with ongoing inflationary pressures and anticipation for the (upcoming) election.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Market conditions have definitely softened. Thankfully, our backlog is strong and will get us through the year. When conditions improve as expected later this year, we will be in a good position to continue building the business. We are a manufacturer of automated packaging equipment for the food and beverage industry, and with a continued shortage of workers, our customers are requiring more and more automation.” [Machinery]“Business is slowing down — it has been a gradual decline for the last several months. We are not seeing new orders at last year’s level, or at this year’s budgeted levels.” [Fabricated Metal Products]“There has been a lot of volatility in sales. On average, our sales look flat, but the volatility is concerning.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]“Business remained strong through the first quarter and has started strong for the second quarter. Commercial construction is still going well but on a regional basis, with the Southeast the strongest.” [Nonmetallic Mineral Products]“The major factor affecting our business is the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s handling of interest rates, which will affect our customers’ businesses, thereby affecting ours.” [Plastics & Rubber Products]“Business is stable, and orders have been consistent. We’re quoting new business for the factory, and automotive builds continue at averages but not near maximum outputs. Workforce is stable, with the turnover ratio dropping considerably. Salaries and hourly rates increasing to meet inflationary pressures.” [Primary Metals] This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US March construction spending -0.2% versus +0.3% expected

May 1, 2024 | 07:00 am

Prior was -0.3%Spending up 9.6% y/ySpending up 10.6% y/y in Q1The impacts of US stimulus and IRA spending continues boost spending and help to keep the economy running hot. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US stocks are little changed in early US trading

May 1, 2024 | 06:46 am

US stocks 13 minutes into the open art showing mixed results (but little changed):Dow industrial average is up 14.54 points or 0.04% at 37830.47S&P index is down -10.65 points or -0.21% at 5025.05NASDAQ index is down -0.25 points at 15657.57.The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading at 3.27 points or 0.17% at 1977.17.A lot of companies are lower after their earnings late yesterday or this morning. Amazon shares are trading up $5.72 or 3.31% at $180.78 after eating expectations.Super Micro Computers are down sharply by $112 or -13.12% at $746 after revenues came in short of expectations. The company blamed supply chains for the shortfall. It's EPS came in higher at $6.65 versus $5.74 expected (beating estimates by 15.76%)Starbucks shares are down -15.75% at $74.52 after missing on their top and bottom lines.Stryker shares are also under pressure by -3.05% after its earningsCVS shares are down -18.39%Kraft Heinz shares of down -5.78%Yum Brands are down -3.75%Marriott International are down -2.03%Pinterest shares are bucking that negative trend with a gain of 17.5%. ADP is also higher by 2.53% and Pfizer shares are up 4.76%.Looking at other stocksNvidia shares are also lower by $-12.34 or -1.4% at $851.39 despite many companies insistence on additional capital expenditures for AI.Alphabet shares are up 0.71%Microsoft shares are up 0.75%Apple shares are unchanged ahead of earnings tomorrow after the closeMeta Platforms shares are up $1.56 or 0.4% at $431.96. The price remains below its 100-day moving average of $439.62 after its sharp decline last week on its disappointing expenses.Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower despite the stronger ADP numbers this morning. Of course yours moved higher yesterday after the employment cost index data was stronger than expectations:2 year yield 5.012%, -3.4 basis points5-year yield 4.681% -4.0 basis points10 year yield 4.648%, -3.7 basis points30-year yield 4.747%, -4.2 basis pointsLooking at other markets:Crude oil is trading down $1.19 or -1.45% at $80.73.Gold is trading up $16.50 or 0.72% at $2302.Silver is trading up $0.16 or 0.61% at $26.44.Bitcoin is lower on the day at $57,520. It's low price reached $56,500. The high price was up at $60,786 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US April S&P Global final manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 49.9 prelim

May 1, 2024 | 06:45 am

Prelim was 49.9Prior was 51.9The ISM manufacturing report is due at the top of the hour.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “Business conditions stagnated in April, failing to improve for the first time in four months and pointing to a weak start to the second quarter for manufacturers. Order inflows into factories fell for the first time since December, meaning producers had to rely on orders placed in prior months to keep busy. “However, there are some encouraging signs. The drop in orders appears to have been largely driven by reduced demand for semi-manufactured goods – inputs produced for other firms – as factories adjust their inventories of inputs. In contrast, consumer goods producers reported a further strengthening of demand, hinting that the broader consumer-driven economic upturn remains intact. “Producers on the whole also seem confident enough in the business outlook to continue adding to payroll numbers at a pace that compares well with the average seen over the past two years, investing further in operating capacity. “From an inflation perspective, it was also reassuring to see prices charged for goods rise at a slower rate than the 11-month high seen in March. The rate of increase nevertheless remains elevated by historical standards – and well above the average seen in the decade prior to the pandemic – as firms continued to pass higher commodity prices on to customers.” This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Canada April S&P Global manufacturing PMI 49.4 vs 49.8 prior

May 1, 2024 | 06:30 am

Prior was 49.8New orders fell for a fourteenth successive month. Although modest, the decline was the steepest since January amid reports that high prices and soft market demand were weighing on sales.firms took on additional staff for a third month in a rowSuppliers were also reported to have raised their prices, and this helped to explain another round of input cost inflation in AprilFull reportCommenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: "April’s survey data revealed another relatively subdued performance of Canada’s manufacturing sector, with both output and new orders both falling since March – and perhaps most disappointedly at slightly faster rates. This led firms to again cut their buying activity, and focus on the utilisation of existing inventory, which several panellists noted remain too high. "Inflation rates are also frustratingly sticky, with supply- side delays noted as a factor pushing up input costs. However, manufacturers’ pricing power is being limited by market competition and subdued demand. Firms are subsequently looking to the Bank of Canada to ease interest rates soon given elevated borrowing costs remain a key factor weighing on the outlook."USD/CAD is down 18 pips to 1.3759 today after a jump yesterday. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US equity futures pare losses

May 1, 2024 | 06:26 am

US equities are still set to open lower but the selling pressure has eased in the past hour. S&P 500 futures are now down just 8 points at 5058 after falling as low as 5037.Shares of Amazon are up almost 4% while AI stock SMCI is down 8.6% premarket. Starbucks is a big loser, falling 13% along with pharmacy CVS, which is also down 13%.Pfizer shares are also up 3% after raising its profit outlook.Ultimately though, the broader market will be guided by the Fed. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US dollar edges lower on a busy Fed day

May 1, 2024 | 06:07 am

The US dollar yesterday got wrapped up in the idea of a hawkish Fed but today it's given a smidge of that back as we count down to the FOMC at 2 pm ET.The euro has made some headway in the past few hours, rising to 1.0684 from a low of 1.0650. It's fared better than most over the past two days.In contrast, the Australian dollar was beaten up yesterday and has only recouped 12 pips today.I'm inclined to be USD-negative through the Fed. The market often gets wrapped up in the idea of a hawkish shift but going all the way back to Bernanke, it's rare that the fears materialized. Instead, the Fed takes a patient stance on rate hikes and I expect that again today. I think so long as Powell doesn't squarely put rate hikes on the table, the dollar will slacken further.Before then, we get data on ISM manufacturing, JOLTS and construction spending: all at 10 am ET. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Quarterly refunding announcement: Will increase TIPS and bill auction sizes

May 1, 2024 | 05:33 am

Total refunding of $125billion in May-July quarter, including $17.2b of new cashWill sell $58 billion in 3s, $42b in 10s and $25b in 30sTo increase 5y TIPS by $1b to $21bTo keep 10y TIPS at $16bPrudent to continue incremental increase in TIPS in May-July quarterExpects to increase 4, 6, and 8 week bill auctions in coming daysThrough July plans to hold weekly liquidity support buybacks of up to $2b per quarterYields are at the lows of the day after the announcement. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

US April ADP employment +192K vs +175K expected

May 1, 2024 | 05:15 am

Prior was +184K (revised to 208K)Goods producing +47KService providing +145KThe median change in annual pay:Job stayers 5.0% versus 5.1% last monthJob changers 9.3% versus 10.1% last monthHiring was broad-based in April,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Only the information sector – telecommunications, media, and information technology – showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021.”This is the highest reading since July (excluding the revision) but the reaction in the FX market was muted. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Forex Today: Stocks Bearish as Markets Await Fed Meeting - 01 May 2024

Apr 30, 2024 | 23:22 pm

Equity Markets See Quite Strong Losses Over Past Day; Japanese Yen Trade Remains Lively; US Dollar Advances to Near 6-Month High

AUD slides on stronger US wages and waning risk sentiment

Apr 30, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar underperformed through trade on Tuesday, giving up gains hard won last week amid stronger than expected US wage data and a decline in risk sentiment. The AUD tracked lower through the domestic session after retail sales data for March printed lower than expected. While inflation and labour market performance continue to outperform market expectations sluggish consumer demand will afford the RBA some confidence they are making progress in working toward correcting price pressures. With markets paring expectations for a final rate hike, with just a 25% likelihood of further hikes priced in the AUD tracked back toward US$0.65. Stronger than expected US employment cost data then forced the Aussie dollar toward intraday lows near US$0.6480. Our attention now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee policy update. While we expect rates will not change Fed President Powell’s accompanying press conference could provide guidance as to the timing and trajectory of future rate hikes. With inflation and wage inflation sticky we will be keen to see if the Fed continues to characterize the stronger data as a momentary blip or the beginnings of a tricky path back to target. Key Movers The US dollar rebounded through trade on Tuesday, outperforming major counterparts following stronger than anticipated wage data and a jump in treasury yields. Risk sentiment faltered and equities fell near 1% on the day after the Employment Cost Index report (the Fed’s preferred measure of wage inflation) rose by 1.2% in quarter one. With market estimates pricing in just a 1% increase the robust print elevated concerns sticky wages and price pressures could further delay the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle and may force policy makers to proffer one final rate hike. US treasury yields spiked with 2-year yields back over 5%, while 10-year yields jumped 5 basis points. The DXY index rose 0.5% on the day with the euro performing well compared with other majors amid higher than expected GDP data while the yen was weaker against the dollar marking intraday highs at ¥157.82. Our attentions turn now US labour market data ahead of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee policy update. We expect the Fed will leave rates on hold and will likely reiterate concerns surrounding upside inflation shocks. With no new economic projections anything short of a surprise shift in sentiment should mean price action remains well contained. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6420 - 0.6580 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6020 - 0.6130 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8880 - 0.8980 ▼

Forex Today: Markets Weigh Suspected BoJ Yen Intervention

Apr 29, 2024 | 23:45 pm

Japanese Yen Makes Huge Swings After 34-Year Lows; Bank of Japan Refuses to Comment; US Dollar Consolidates; Copper Futures Rise to 2-Year High.

AUD extends recovery amid weaker US dollar

Apr 29, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar tracked higher through trade on Monday, buoyed by an increased risk appetite and a weaker US dollar. A string of positive headlines from China and a stronger-than-anticipated CNY fix spilled into AUD value, extending gains through US$0.6550 and toward intraday highs at US$0.6585. Reports of imminent policy support for China’s embattled property sector helped boost demand for property stocks and underpinned gains across key commodities. After the AUD found support last week on stronger-than-anticipated domestic inflation data, we were keenly watching for any signs of a retracement through trade on Monday. Having consolidated gains, our attention now turns to China PMI data and Australian Retails Sales numbers ahead of Euro area CPI and a US employment cost index report for direction through trade on Tuesday, while the prospect of JPY intervention will continue to weigh on markets and likely govern major moves. Key Movers The USD is broadly weaker this morning, while the JPY was the day's big mover amid signs officials have finally intervened to protect the embattled yen. With Japanese markets closed for a national holiday, the yen tumbled through early trade, breaking through 160 for the first time since 1990. Starting Friday, markets extended moves after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda suggested the current JPY value was not impacting underlying price trends and appeared to show little concern for the weaker yen. Whether or not that was a tactic to distract markets, the yen rallied sharply after breaking 160, forcing the USD back below 155, before the US dollar pushed back toward 157 and finally settled around 156. The speed and scope of the volatility suggest officials have finally stepped in to prevent further losses with 160 perhaps the marker for intervention. With Japan’s Ministry of Finance refusing to be drawn on whether it was responsible for the recovery, markets will likely remain jittery for some time. In other moves, the NZD traded as high as 95, while the AUD tested a break above 104 before correcting lower. Our attention remains on JPY direction while China PMI, Euro area CPI and US employment cost data, the Fed’s preferred wage inflation measure, dominate the macro docket ahead of FOMC and US payroll data. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6480 - 0.6620 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6080 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8930 - 0.9030 ▲

Aussie dollar holds above US$0.65

Apr 28, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6524 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar strengthened further on the back of rising yields in Australian government bonds, with the 10-year yield hitting a 21-week high of 4.59%. On the data front last week Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the March quarter as rents and education costs increased, dimming hopes the cost-of-living crunch was easing and lessening chances of a 2024 cut in official interest rates. The consumer price index for the first three months of 2024 was 3.6% higher than a year earlier, slowing from the 4.1% annual pace in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists had tipped CPI growth would drop to 3.5%. The March quarterly inflation rate was 1%, compared with the 0.6% pace in the December quarter. Economists had tipped it would rise to 0.8%. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly Retail Sales figures. On Wednesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the yearly Index of Commodity Prices measuring the average selling price of the nation's main commodity exports are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of monthly Building Approvals and Goods Trade Balance. Key Movers In the United States last week US Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q1) expanded at a slower pace of 1.6% compared to the previous reading of 3.4%, falling short of market expectations of 2.5%. This slowdown suggests potential headwinds or slowdowns in various sectors of the economy. However, US consumer prices have shown resilience, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ) Price Index for Q1 increasing at a 3.7% annual rate. This exceeded both market expectations of 3.4% and the previous reading of 2.0%, indicating prevailing inflationary pressures that could influence Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions. The Pound Sterling (GBP) faced selling pressure near 1.2500 against the US dollar on Friday. The GBP/USD pair drops as firm expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will start reducing interest rates from the June meeting. BoE policymakers see inflation receding sharply in upcoming months but still refrain from providing a concrete time frame for interest-rate cuts. In the press conference after the last monetary policy meeting, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said market expectations for two or three rate cuts this year are not “unreasonable”. Also, BoE policymakers have remained worried about high service inflation. Currently, the UK annual service inflation is at 6%, higher than what is required to be consistent for bringing down inflation to the 2% target. The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2494 at the time of writing. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9000 - 1.9200 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▼

Aussie dollar continues to trade above US$0.65

Apr 25, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6518 at time of writing. AUD/USD rallied strongly on Wednesday following the release of stickier-than-expected Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Q1. Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in the March quarter as rents and education costs increased, dimming hopes the cost-of-living crunch was easing and lessening chances of a 2024 cut in official interest rates. The consumer price index for the first three months of 2024 was 3.6% higher than a year earlier, slowing from the 4.1% annual pace in the December quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists had tipped CPI growth would drop to 3.5%. The March quarterly inflation rate was 1%, compared with the 0.6% pace in the December quarter. Economists had tipped it would rise to 0.8%. Looking ahead today and the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest quarterly Import Price Index. We will also see the release of the quarterly Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers On the data front, in the United States overnight real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that is incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on May 30, 2024. Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, and a downturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated. Other relevant data for the US dollar showed Initial Jobless Claims falling slightly to 207K from 212K, despite an expected rise to 214K, and Pending Home Sales coming in at 3.4% in March, easily beating estimates of 0.3% and February’s 1.6%. The Dow Jones declined 1.82% top-to-bottom on Thursday, hitting a seven-day low of 37,745.54 and turning negative for the week. Despite the major equity index reclaiming nearly half of the day’s declines, the DJIA remains well back from the day’s peaks at 38,446.43. Looking ahead and today we will see the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The Federal Reserve (Fed) remains firm on its stance and doesn't seem in a rush to start easing and market hawkish adjustments provide a cushion to the USD. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data from March will likely affect those investors’ expectations. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6200 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▼

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.65

Apr 23, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6480 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar continues its upward trajectory for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, buoyed by improved risk appetite. On the data front yesterday Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Composite rose to a 24-month high of 53.6 in April compared to the previous month's 53.3. The Australian private sector ticked up into an accelerated pace of growth in the second quarter bolstered primarily by Services sector growth. Australia's Manufacturing PMI Output rose to an eight-month high of 49.1 compared to March's 45.7, brushing off a 2-month low of 54.2 in the Services Business Activity compared to March's 54.4. Looking ahead today the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). There will be no commentary tomorrow due to the Anzac Day public holiday. Key Movers The pound bounced back from US$1.2300 in Tuesday’s early session as the S&P Global/CIPS posted stronger-than-expected United Kingdom preliminary Services PMI data for April. Surprisingly, the Services PMI jumped to 54.9 from the prior reading of 53.1. Investors forecasted the Services PMI to drop slightly to 53.0. The preliminary Manufacturing PMI, surprisingly contracted, remains below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction after expanding in March. The factory PMI falls sharply to 48.3 from expectations and the prior reading of 50.3. Looking ahead to the rest of this week investors will shift focus to the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The monthly core PCE Price Index is estimated to grow steadily by 0.3%. Annually, the underlying inflation data is expected to soften to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading softly at 105.70 tallying daily losses on Tuesday's session. Investors will be keeping an eye on vital economic reports due this week, including the preliminary figures of Q1’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index from March to gain further insight into the economy's health. During Tuesday’s session, S&P PMIs came in lower than expected and made the USD face selling pressure. US Treasury bond yields are dwindling with the 2-year yield at 4.93%, the 5-year yield at 4.61%, and the 10-year yield at 4.58%. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

Forex Today: Stocks Tumble – Sell in May and Go Away?

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:27 am

Stocks Make Deepest Pullback in Months; Precious Metals Remain Strong; Dollar Weakens After G7 Statement; Several Trends May Be Reversing

Bitcoin Halving: Will it Trigger a Market Frenzy?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:41 am

Bitcoin is all over the news, as “Bitcoin halving” is expected to occur on Friday, April 19. What is Bitcoin halving and how will it affect the price of Bitcoin?

Forex Today: US Yields Rise on Powell Cut Delay Signal

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation Falling Too Slowly; Israel Hints at Soft Retaliation, Crude Oil Weaker; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.79; UK CPI Higher Than Expected; Bitcoin Close to Halving

Forex Today: Stock Markets See Strong Selling

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:10 pm

Global Stock Markets Firmly Lower; Israel Signals Retaliation Likely Soon; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.44; Energies, Precious Metals Firm; Markets Await Canadian CPI Data

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Improves as Mideast Tension Lowers

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:51 am

Immediate Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely; USD/JPY Breaks Out to New 34-Year High Near ¥154; Market Await US Retail Sales Data

Forex Today: US Monthly CPI Unchanged, Triggers Hawkish Shift on Rate Cuts

Apr 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

US CPI data released yesterday showed the annualized rate rising higher than expected to 3.5%.

US Inflation Higher Than Expected, Accelerates to 3.5%

Apr 10, 2024 | 09:37 am

US inflation for March rose 3.5% year-on-year. This was higher than expected and the US dollar is higher following the inflation release.

Forex Today: US CPI Expected to Show Slower Monthly Increase

Apr 9, 2024 | 23:43 pm

US CPI data will be released today, with the market expecting a slower pace of monthly increase.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,354

Apr 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Metals Rise Strongly to New Highs; USD/JPY Likely to Retest 34-Year High at ¥152; Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Pull Back From Highs

Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Apr 4, 2024 | 00:08 am

Spot Gold has continued to rise to new all-time high prices.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,288

Apr 2, 2024 | 22:27 pm

Precious Metals Rise Firmly to New Highs; Fed’s Daly Expects 3 Rate Cuts in 2024; USD/JPY Remains Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

German Inflation Eases to 3-Year Low

Apr 2, 2024 | 07:54 am

Germany’s CPI climbed 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.7% in February and matching expectations. This is the lowest inflation rate since May 2021.

Forex Today: Yen Nears Record Low, Markets Await Possible BoJ Intervention

Apr 1, 2024 | 23:20 pm

USD/JPY Advances Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; US Dollar Stronger on Firm US Manufacturing Data; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

Forex Today: Gold Hits $2265 Per Ounce

Mar 31, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Reaches Record High in Asian Session; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Strong Chinese Manufacturing Data; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4%

Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

Forex Today: Cocoa Futures Break $9,000 for Record High

Mar 26, 2024 | 00:38 am

Cocoa Futures Gain 8% in a Day; US Stocks, Gold Remain Bullish; Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Bitcoin Rises Above $70k Despite Record Crypto Fund Outflows

United States Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates, Remains Cautious

Mar 21, 2024 | 04:26 am

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time at its meeting on March 20. The US dollar fell against the major currencies following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed Says 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Stocks, Gold Boom

Mar 21, 2024 | 00:07 am

Fed Gives Dovish Surprise by Forecasting 3 Cuts in 2024; Markets Await BoE, SNB; Gold, Stock Markets Reach Record Highs; Japanese Yen Regains Ground; Bitcoin Pares Losses; UK CPI Falls

Forex Today: Markets Await FOMC Meeting

Mar 20, 2024 | 00:06 am

FOMC Expected to Leave Rate at 5.50%; Japanese Yen Continues to Fall After BoJ; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await UK Inflation Data, New Zealand GDP

Forex Today: Bank of Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Mar 19, 2024 | 00:26 am

BoJ Makes First Rate Hike Since 2007, Japanese Stocks Rally, Yen Weakens; RBA Leaves Rates at 4.35%; Cocoa Futures Slightly Lower After Record High Yesterday; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await Canadian Inflation Data

Forex Today: Markets Expecting First BoJ Rate Hike in 17 Years

Mar 18, 2024 | 00:19 am

90% Expect BoJ to Ditch Negative Rates Policy Tuesday, Japanese Stocks Rallying; Bitcoin Rising After Another Record High Thursday; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead With Dramatic Gains

Forex Today: Markets Await US PPI

Mar 14, 2024 | 00:24 am

US PPI Expected at 0.2%; Bitcoin Makes Another Record High Above $73,000; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead.

Forex Today: US Inflation Ticks Higher to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 23:29 pm

US CPI Rises Unexpectedly; S&P 500 Makes Record High Close; Bitcoin Makes All-Time High Above $73,000

US Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 07:02 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% year-on-year in February, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of 3.1%.

Forex Today: Markets Expecting Unchanged US Inflation Data

Mar 12, 2024 | 01:03 am

US CPI Seen at 3.1%; Bitcoin Hits New Record Below $73,000; Gold’s Bullish Momentum Starts to Pause

Forex Today: Gold, Bitcoin Looking Bullish Near Friday’s Record Highs

Mar 11, 2024 | 00:17 am

Gold, Bitcoin Advancing Again; Yen Higher on Japanese Rate Hike Bets and GDP Growth

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