The Latest Forex News Live Today:
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China stockmarkets leaping higher on reopening: CSI300 benchmark index +9%
Oct 7, 2024 | 18:36 pmAfter the week long break Chinese equity marekts are opening super-strong.Shanghai Composite is up over 8%.- ADDED - as I post further gains making a liar out of me. Add another1 or more percent to those numbers above. Hong Kong is trading lower. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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China holiday trips +4.1% y/y
Oct 7, 2024 | 18:31 pmGlobal Times with the info:China's total cross-regional flow of people during the weeklong National Day holidays from October 1 to 7 is estimated to be about 2.008 billion trips, with an average daily year-on-year growth of 4.1%, preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Transport show on Tuesday.ps. markets in China are opening:China's A-share market Shanghai Composite Index up 10.1% Shenzhen Composite Index up 12.7% Tech-heavy Chinext Price Index up 18.44% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australian Dollar gathers strength after RBA Minutes
Oct 7, 2024 | 18:29 pmThe Australian Dollar (AUD) trades on a stronger note on Tuesday, snapping the three-day losing streak.
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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0709 vs. 7.0794 Reuters estimates
Oct 7, 2024 | 18:16 pmOn Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0709, as compared to last Monday's fix of 7.0074 and 7.0794 Reuters estimates.
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Japan’s Akazawa: Drop in real wages is not good news
Oct 7, 2024 | 18:11 pmJapan economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Tuesday that a decline in real wages for the first time in three months is not good news.
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Japan economy minister Akazawa says drop in real wages is not good news
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:48 pmJapan economy minister Akazawa: Decrease in real wages for first time in three months is not a good newsGovt will create environment where real wages continue to riseReferring to the data earlier:Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August (expected +3.1%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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RBA minutes: Board discussed scenarios for both lowering and raising interest rates
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:41 pmThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its September monetary policy meeting on Tuesday, highlighting that the board members discussed scenarios for lowering and raising interest rates in the future.
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Australian September business confidence -2 (prior -5)
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:32 pmNational Australia Bank business survey September 2024Business confidence -2prior -5Business conditions +7prior +4NAB commentary: "Some of last month's fall in confidence was reversed in September but confidence remains well below average," "Interestingly, as we think we are passing through the weakest point in economic growth for this cycle, business conditions have broadly tracked around average through mid-2024." Conditions sub-measure employment +5 after +1 in AugustLabour costs slightly eased to +1.7 from +1.8 in AugustPurchase costs fell to +1.2 from +1.6 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence increased to -2 in September from previous -4
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:30 pmAustralia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence increased to -2 in September from previous -4
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Australia ANZ Job Advertisements rose from previous -2.1% to 1.6% in September
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:30 pmAustralia ANZ Job Advertisements rose from previous -2.1% to 1.6% in September
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Australia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased to 7 in September from previous 3
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:30 pmAustralia National Australia Bank's Business Conditions increased to 7 in September from previous 3
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WTI gains ground above $76.50 amid fears of Middle East oil production disruptions
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:12 pmWest Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.85 on Thursday.
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Aussie dollar holds steady above US$0.67
Oct 7, 2024 | 17:00 pmAUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6755 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar continued its losing streak on Monday as the US dollar gained further after September's upbeat United States (US) employment data. This has forced traders to unwind the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut for the upcoming policy meeting in November. Instead of continuing to decline, the Australian dollar (AUD) is more likely to trade in a sideways range between US$0.6725 and US$0.6825. Looking ahead today, we will see the release of both the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will also release the latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. The Minutes are a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. The RBA kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% and didn’t offer any timeline to kickstart the rate-cut cycle. Key Movers The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, witnessed a calm Monday session with mild losses, holding steady despite elevated levels near last week's highs. Key events this week to look out for is the release of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The probability now of a 50 bps cut in November or December is unlikely according to market investors which still anticipates 125 bps of total easing in the next 12 months. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The major indexes closed sharply higher on Friday after a better-than-expected September jobs report reinforced the idea that the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing. The Dow finished last week at an all-time closing high, while the S&P 500 was just shy of a record of its own when trading kicked off this week. The yield on 10-year Treasury's, which is sensitive to expectations around where interest rates are headed, moved above 4% on Monday for the first time in two months. The 10-year yield was at 4.02% recently, up from 3.98% on Friday. Gold futures were little changed at around $2,660, while bitcoin was up 1% around $63,300. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6650 - 0.6850 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9100 - 0.9300 ▼
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Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis increased to ¥-377.9B in August from previous ¥-482.7B
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:50 pmJapan Trade Balance - BOP Basis increased to ¥-377.9B in August from previous ¥-482.7B
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Japan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3803.6B, above forecasts (¥2921.9B) in August
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:50 pmJapan Current Account n.s.a. came in at ¥3803.6B, above forecasts (¥2921.9B) in August
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Australian October Consumer confidence +6.2% to 89.8
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:41 pmWestpac-Melbourne Institute index of consumer sentiment for October 2024, up 6.2% m/m from September, to 89.2.5 year highBelow 100 is net negative, but its not as bad as it was at least. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan labor cash earnings +3.0% y/y in August (expected +3.1%)
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:37 pmWages data Japan for August 2024.Total cash earnings +3.0% y/yexpected +3.1%, prior +3.6%Inflation adjusted real wages -0.6% y/y, falling after 2 months of gains due to bonusesOvertime pay +2.6% y/y Disappointing data on wages on balance and not as yen positive as it could be, at the margin (BOJ wants higher wagers to drive inflation. Sustained wage growth is what the Bank of Japan wants in order to to raise interest rates again after its first hike in 17 years in March and follow-up hike in July.) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan data - Household spending +2.0% m/m (expected +0.5%)
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:34 pmJapan data - Household spending for August 2024+2.0% m/m expected +0.5%, prior -1.7%-1.9% y/yexpected -2.6%, prior +0.1%A decent improvement m/m and not as bad y/y. A yen positive at the margin. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at -1.9%, above forecasts (-2.6%) in August
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:30 pmJapan Overall Household Spending (YoY) came in at -1.9%, above forecasts (-2.6%) in August
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Japan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below expectations (3.1%) in August: Actual (3%)
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:30 pmJapan Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) below expectations (3.1%) in August: Actual (3%)
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USD/CAD extends upside above 1.3600 on stronger US Dollar
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:21 pmThe USD/CAD pair extends the rally to near 1.3620 during the early Asian session on Tuesday.
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EUR/USD holds steady as bidders eye return 1.1000
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:18 pmEUR/USD churned on the low side of 1.1000 on Monday, failing to spark a meaningful pullback after dipping past the key physiological last week, but also not falling any further despite a slight miss in European Retail Sales figures.
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Unconfirmed reports of explosions in Iran, Isfahan (nuke site)
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:18 pmUnconfirmed reports of explosions in Iran, Isfahan. Isfahan is the site of key Iranian nuclear facilitiesIranian Media and Channels are continuing to deny any attack /incident in the Isfahan Province. Govt media has quickly linked it to a military exercise This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Colombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (5.83%) in September: Actual (5.81%)
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:07 pmColombia Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (5.83%) in September: Actual (5.81%)
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Colombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.26%) in September: Actual (0.24%)
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:03 pmColombia Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (0.26%) in September: Actual (0.24%)
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South Korea Current Account Balance: 6.6B (August) vs previous 9.13B
Oct 7, 2024 | 16:00 pmSouth Korea Current Account Balance: 6.6B (August) vs previous 9.13B
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Fed's Musalem: More rate cuts likely but data will drive policy choices
Oct 7, 2024 | 15:48 pmFederal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said on Monday that he supports additional interest rate cuts as the economy moves forward.
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GBP/USD finds fresh lows as Greenback climbs
Oct 7, 2024 | 15:43 pmGBP/USD sunk another one-quarter of one percent on Monday, easing into a fresh four-week low and closing below the 1.3100 handle for the first time since mid-September.
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NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls await near-term break, neutral outlook
Oct 7, 2024 | 15:11 pmThe NZD/JPY pair pulled back on Monday, declining by 0.80% to 90.70, but it continues to side-ways trade between 91.00 and 90.00.
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Gold struggles as US yields rise, big rate cut hopes wane
Oct 7, 2024 | 15:00 pmGold price edges down during Monday’s North American session, yet it remains within the $2,630 - $2,659 range as US Treasury bond yields capped the yellow metal advance, while the escalation of the Middle East conflict keeps the precious metal from falling further.
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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD sinks below $32.00 on rising US yields
Oct 7, 2024 | 14:59 pmSilver price reversed course on Monday, tumbled over 1.60% as rising US yields dented appetite for the precious metal, which failed to cling to $32.00 a troy ounce.
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BNP like the the US dollar ahead of the US election, especially with geopolitical risk
Oct 7, 2024 | 14:39 pmBNP like the euro but ahead of the US election assess that its prudent to add USD hedges:risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East, geopolitical risk underpricedahead of US electionsinvestors positioned short USD BNP like the USD, especially against currencies with weaker fundamentals. Room to run higher for the US dollar? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australian Dollar soft as a cautious market mood benefits the USD
Oct 7, 2024 | 14:26 pmThe AUD/USD pair declined by 0.50% to 0.6765 on Monday, pressured by a stronger US Dollar and concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
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US Dollar declines as markets gear for CPI data
Oct 7, 2024 | 14:25 pmThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, witnessed a calm Monday session with mild losses, holding steady despite elevated levels near last week's highs.
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NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears take the reins, technical outlook signals further losses
Oct 7, 2024 | 14:23 pmIn Monday's session, the NZD/USD pair extended its recent decline, falling by 0.60% to 0.6125.
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Mexican Peso depreciates as risk aversion grows due to escalating Middle East strife
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:46 pmThe Mexican Peso begins the week on the back foot and falls some 0.50% against the Greenback amid a risk-on impulse that keeps the US Dollar trading near seven-week highs.
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China reopens today after the long holiday - with a "stimulus" press conference @ 10am
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:46 pmI posted info on this yesterday. ICYMI:A press conference has been scheduled for Tuesday (when mainland Chinese markets reopen after the week-long holiday) by the state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC). It’ll cover the topic of “systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies, the solid promotion of upward trend of the economy and structural improvement, and the sustained improvement in the development trend”, and answer questions from journalists. Scheduled for 10am Beijing time (0200 GMT, 2200 US Eastern time). This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/JPY Price Forecast: Snaps three-day rally, tumbles below 148.50
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:43 pmThe USD/JPY retreated after rallying for three straight days, even though the US 10-year Treasury noy yield rose five basis points.
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Walt Disney stock closes 2.9% lower on Monday
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:42 pmWalt Disney (DIS) closed at $92.37 on Monday, 2.91% lower on the day.
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JNJ should continue higher at least to complete a pullback
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:38 pmJohnson & Johnson (JNJ) is an American multinational corporation founded in 1886 that develops medical devices, pharmaceuticals, and consumer packaged goods.
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Goldman Sachs has raised its target for S&P 500 again, as high as 6300
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:31 pmICYMI, via a Goldman Sachs note on Friday, the firm raised its targets for the US benchmark S&P 500 index:6000 by end 2024 (their prior forecast was 5600)6300 within 12 months (prior 6000)add that these targets may be 'too low'GS cite:"our economists' forecast for U.S. GDP growth is above consensus"higher margin growth steady macroeconomic outlook through next year, "remains conducive to modest margin expansion"2024 EPS estimate unchanged at $2412025 EPS estimate to $268 (from $256)expect a recovery in the semiconductor cycle as well as ongoing strength for mega-cap techsGoldman Sachs like Chinese equities also:Goldman Sachs upgraded its call on Chinese stocks to overweight This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average accelerates into the low end on Monday
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:12 pmThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) shed around 250 points on a shaky market Monday, with risk appetite shriveling on the back of decreased rate cut expectations and tensions in the Middle East running on the hot side.
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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Oil continues to rally as Middle East response awaited
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:09 pmFed's Kashkari: The balance of risks has shifted towards higher employmentUS September employment trends 108.48 vs 109.04 priorBank of Italy: Small deviations in gov't budget could jeopardize deficit plansHurricane Milton rapidly intensifies into Category 5 hurricaneECB's Holzman: Inflation fight is far from overFTX liquidation plan receives court approvalReports of explosions in central IsraelUS offered Israel "compensation-temptation package" if they avoid certain targets in IranMarkets:Gold down $8 to $2643WTI crude oil up $2.95 to $77.33US 10-year yields up 4.9 bps to 4.03%S&P 500 down 0.8%JPY leads, NZD lagsThe prospect of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iran continues to weigh on sentiment and lift oil prices. Bonds sold off once again but with 10s rising above 4%, it's shifted from a 'no recession' trade into a 'reflation' trade that isn't so positive for stock markets. The shape of the rally was odd with the recent drivers in AI and China both strengthen with everything else outside of energy struggling. In FX, it was a classic 'risk off' trade with the yen bid and the US dollar close behind. That pulled AUD/USD down for the third day in four and a three-week low. It's a far cry from what looked like a breakout early last week.The newsflow was light as eyes are now on Florida and the potential for a massive hurricane in the Tampa Bay area late on Wednesday. The reports of an 'imminent' strike on Iran continued for the fifth day but that's yet to happen. Despite that, oil shorts appear to be scrambling to get out of the way, with crude up strongly for the fourth time in five days and now at a six-week high.The Fed calendar was busy but there was nothing consequential or insightful. Instead, the market is being guided by the data with the odds of no move in November up to 15%. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Major US indices retrace gains from Friday
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:08 pmThe major US stock indices retraced their gains from Friday's trade. On Friday,Dow rose 341 pointsS&P index rose 51.13 pointsNASDAQ rose 219.37 point.In trading today, Dow industrial average fell -398.51 points or -0.94% at 41954.24S&P index fell -55.13 points or -0.96% at 5695.94.NASDAQ index fell minus 2.3.95 points or -1.18% at 17923.90.The small-cap Russell 2000 fell -19.70 points or -0.89% at 2193.09Despite the declines, Nvidia still rose 2.29%, and Super Micro Computer's rose 15.79%. But the balance of the magnificent seven fell sharplyMeta Platforms (Facebook)-1.86%Apple, -2.25%Amazon, -3.02%Alphabet (Google), -2.44%Microsoft, -1.57%Tesla, -3.70% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 8 October, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Oct 7, 2024 | 13:00 pmGood morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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FTX liquidation plan receives court approval
Oct 7, 2024 | 12:27 pmGood news for FTX customers as they will be fully repaid as nearly $16 billion in assets have been recovered.That's also great news for vulture funds that were buying up bankruptcy claims for around 10-cents on the dollar. That has to sting with around $425m in claims changing hands. Bitcoin was trading at about $16,000 at the time of bankruptcy so that has to be factored in as well.From this report it's not clear if customers will get more than their initial deposits, as was previously reported.The biggest sting in all of it could be that FTX had a majority stake in the AI star Anthropic. Given that it's close behind OpenAI -- which just raised money at a $150 billion valuation -- the stake in that company alone could eventually be worth more than $16 billion alone. That stake was sold earlier this year for $884 million in what suspect will prove to be a shrewd investment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Reports of explosions in central Israel
Oct 7, 2024 | 12:00 pmThese explosions could be what's weighing on sentiment at the moment. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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US stocks trade to lows for the day
Oct 7, 2024 | 11:37 amThe major US stock indices are trading to lows for the day. The Dow industrial average is leading with a decline of -1%. The declines are led by Travelers, Amazon, Walt Disney. The low for the tail reached 41891.81. Earlier, the price fell below its 100 hour moving average of 42071.77. The low price from last week reached 41837.07 and is a next target.The S&P index is also trading lower and trading to new session lows. The current price is down -0.76% at 5707.41. That has taken the price below its 100 hour moving average of 5712.14. Stay below that moving average level would tilt the technical bias to the sellers in a short-term. The next target comes against the low from last week at 5673.99. The low price today has reached 5699.52.The NASDAQ index is also taking a peek below its 100-hour moving average of 17987.51. It fell to a low of 17970.59 but is bouncing modestly. It is currently down -144 points or 0.79% and 17995.70.Meta Platforms (Facebook), -1.49%Apple, -1.53%Microsoft, -1.09%Alphabet (Google), -1.94%Amazon, -2.97%Tesla,-3.09%Meanwhile, Nvidia is blocking the trend with a gain of 3.81%. Super Micro Computer is trading up 15.57% is a company said they are currently shipping more than 100,000 graphic processors per quarter and unveiled a new suite of liquid cooling: products..Yields are steady with the:2-year 3.986%, +5.5 basis points5-year 3.856%, +4.3 basis points10 year 4.015%, +3.5 basis points30 year 4.296%, +2.8 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Credit Agricole: AUD surges to largest long position in G10 FX; CAD remains largest short
Oct 7, 2024 | 10:43 amCredit Agricole reports that the Australian dollar (AUD) has become the largest long position in G10 FX, while the Canadian dollar (CAD) continues to hold the largest short position, according to their latest FX positioning model.Key Points:AUD Positioning:The AUD has overtaken other currencies to become the largest long position in G10 FX, driven by increased buying interest last week primarily from IMM (Intercontinental Exchange) flows.Data indicates significant inflows from corporates and real money investors, while banks and hedge funds have experienced outflows.Despite this strong positioning, the AUD is now considered to be in overbought territory.CAD Positioning:The CAD continues to hold the largest short position in the G10 FX landscape, even amidst some buying interest noted last week.This short positioning is largely attributed to flows from Crédit Agricole CIB.The FX flow data suggests inflows from hedge funds and real money investors, countered by outflows from banks and corporates.Conclusion:Credit Agricole's analysis highlights a significant shift in G10 FX positioning, with the AUD emerging as the most favored long currency, while the CAD remains the most shorted. These dynamics reflect varying investor sentiments and market flows, with the AUD facing potential overextension in its current valuation.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Brent crude oil rises above $80 as Middle East war fears intensify
Oct 7, 2024 | 09:03 amThe reports are continuing of an 'imminent' Israel attack on Iran and no one is willing to fade oil until it's clear what is being hit. In all likelihood there will be a further spike if/when the strikes start followed by a 'sell the fact' trade so long as the damage to export facilities isn't catastrophic.Also keep in mind that if refineries are struck, that could actually lead to more exports as oil is sent out of the country instead of processed locally.Of course, there are second-order implications to consider as well along with the possibility that Iran could strike back at Israel or deliver on its promise to hit oil production elsewhere in the Middle East. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Hurricane Milton rapidly intensifies into Category 5 hurricane
Oct 7, 2024 | 08:58 amHurricane Milton is now blowing at 135 kt, which is a Categoy-5 storm, according to the US NHC and has flight-level wind peaks at 146 kt.It has intensified faster than expected and a small eye has now developed."By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger," the NHC says.The good news is that some shear and dry air are developing and that should further slow it before landfall in Florida."The system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida," the NHC says. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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European equity close: Stocks show mixed movements as new week begins
Oct 7, 2024 | 08:38 amThe moves were mostly minor to start the week but generally to the upside after a poor week last week.On the day:Stoxx 600 +0.2%Germany DAX flatFrance CAC +0.5%UK FTSE 100 +0.2%Spain IBEX +0.5%Italy FTSE MIB +0.6% This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Morgan Stanley: What we expect from the US September CPI report on Thursday
Oct 7, 2024 | 08:20 amMorgan Stanley forecasts that the September CPI report will show core inflation rising by 0.26%, slightly exceeding consensus expectations. While goods inflation is expected to improve due to used cars and airfares, services inflation is projected to decelerate. The report's implications for headline and core inflation will guide expectations for the Fed's monetary policy stance.Key Points:Core CPI Expectations:Morgan Stanley expects core CPI prices to rise by 0.26% in September, compared to a consensus of 0.2%. The year-over-year core CPI is projected to remain at 3.2%.Goods inflation is expected to show positive movement, driven by used cars, while airfares inflation also remains positive.Services Inflation Dynamics:Services inflation is anticipated to decelerate, primarily as shelter inflation steps down. The firm believes that the recent upswing in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) may have been influenced by temporary seasonal factors and expects a partial correction in this metric.Headline CPI Forecast:Morgan Stanley projects headline CPI to be lower than core CPI, estimating a rise of 0.09% month-over-month, with the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) headline CPI index expected at 314.718.This decline in headline inflation is attributed to lower gasoline prices, which are expected to push headline inflation below core inflation.Core PCE Inflation Implications:The CPI forecast aligns with expectations for core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation at 0.19% month-over-month, compared to 0.13% in August.Used cars, despite their lower weight in the core PCE calculation, are expected to accelerate in inflation, but their impact on PCE will be limited compared to the CPI.Additional PCE Component Expectations:Morgan Stanley anticipates an acceleration in health services CPI following two months of weak performance, while expecting softer inflation in financial services and airfares.Conclusion:Morgan Stanley's analysis indicates a nuanced outlook for the September US CPI report, with expectations of a modest rise in core inflation amidst mixed trends in goods and services prices. The anticipated lower headline inflation, driven by falling gasoline prices, could shape market perceptions regarding the Fed's monetary policy direction. Overall, the report will be pivotal in assessing inflation trends and potential impacts on future interest rate decisions.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Bank of Italy: Small deviations in gov't budget could jeopardize deficit plans
Oct 7, 2024 | 08:00 amSome headlines from the Bank of ItalyISTAT revision implies downward mechanical correction of 0.2 pp of GDP from estimate of 1.0%Small deviations from govt' budget plans could make it difficult to bring deficit below EU's 3% of GDP limit in 2026Sees slight GDP expansion in Q3Do European budget rules even matter anymore? They battered Italy, Greece and Spain for years now the core of Europe is pretending like there were never any rules and the plans to meet deficit targets are in the distant future. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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US September employment trends 108.48 vs 109.04 prior
Oct 7, 2024 | 07:00 amFriday's non-farm payrolls report has some people rethinking the path of rates but this chart is a reminder that jobs data is undoubtedly slacking. The employment trends data is a composite of already-released data and it's now slightly below pre-pandemic levels.“The ETI has been on an extended downtrend that mirrored the decline in job vacancies over the past two years, yet the overall employment picture has remained strong through much of that time,” said Mitchell Barnes, Economist at The Conference Board. “And while hiring has slowed in recent months from its former rapid pace, last week’s Employment Report showing outsized gains in September should alleviate some concerns—right at the time the Fed has started its rate-cutting cycle. Despite falling steadily from its peak, the ETI remains around 2018-19 levels.”“With many companies fully restaffed to prior levels, jobseekers have begun experiencing challenges entering the market at this stage,” added Barnes. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Goldman Sachs: GBP outlook remains constructive despite recent setbacks
Oct 7, 2024 | 06:57 amGoldman Sachs has exited its long GBP/CHF position with a small profit last week, noting that Sterling has underperformed its usual risk beta. Despite recent tactical setbacks influenced by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey’s comments and geopolitical developments, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive outlook on the British pound, supported by structural drivers and a positive global risk environment.Key Points:Exiting GBP/CHF Position:Goldman Sachs exited its long GBP/CHF position last week, realizing a small profit.Sterling has underperformed its typical risk beta this week, influenced by strong signals from BoE Governor Bailey.BoE Communications and Policy Outlook:Governor Bailey suggested that continued disinflation could lead the BoE to become “a bit more aggressive on rate cuts.”Despite Bailey’s comments, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill emphasized a gradual approach and cautioned against cutting rates “too far or too fast,” aligning with the Bank’s recent policy stance.Goldman Sachs remains cautious about interpreting Bailey’s remarks as a definitive shift in the BoE’s policy direction without additional context.Relative Performance and Market Dynamics:While GBP has been a favored long position in G10 currencies, it has recently underperformed against AUD, which has benefited from the repricing of China’s growth outcomes.Goldman Sachs was also stopped out of its long GBP/CHF recommendation on a small profit due to a risk-off move triggered by geopolitical developments in the Middle East.Strategic Outlook and Structural Drivers:Goldman Sachs views the recent setbacks to Sterling as tactical factors rather than indicative of a fundamental shift.The firm maintains a constructive outlook on GBP, supported by a risk-on global backdrop and positive domestic growth momentum.Despite short-term volatility, the structural drivers for a strong GBP remain intact, reinforcing the long-term positive outlook.Conclusion:Despite recent tactical setbacks and underperformance against AUD, Goldman Sachs maintains a positive and constructive outlook on the GBP. The firm attributes this confidence to underlying structural factors and a supportive global risk environment, while remaining vigilant of potential volatility stemming from central bank communications and geopolitical risks. Investors are encouraged to consider these factors when positioning their GBP trades, recognizing the resilience and long-term strength of sterling.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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Forex Today: US Dollar, Yields Strong on “No Landing” Speculation - 07 October 2024
Oct 6, 2024 | 23:26 pmFriday Saw Strong US Jobs & Earnings Data, Boosting Greenback; US Treasury Yields Soar; Japanese Currency Ambassador Monitoring Market
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Aussie dollar trades below US$0.67
Oct 6, 2024 | 17:00 pmAUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6773 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar dropped during the North American session after September’s jobs report in the United States (US), suggesting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) at the November meeting. Aside from this, Australia’s data witnessed a solid Retail Sales report, and the Balance of Trade in August printed a surplus. Although those conditions could prevent the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from cutting rates, business activity in the manufacturing sector, via the Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI, contracted for eight straight months. There are no scheduled releases today on the bank holiday. Looking ahead to this week on Tuesday we will see the release of both the Westpac Consumer Sentiment and NAB Business Confidence. The RBA will also release the latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes a detailed record of the RBA board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. Key Movers The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed into a fifth consecutive bullish day on Friday, driven higher by better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls figures. American employers added 254,000 jobs last month in the penultimate jobs report before the US election, defying fears of a slowdown in the labour market. Job creation unexpectedly accelerated in September, while the headline unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% from 4.2% in August. Economists had forecast a non-farm payrolls reading of around 132,500 for September, after a cooler summer of employment growth. Annual wage growth also firmed up in September, rising 4.0% YoY from the previous 3.9%. Investors had expected September’s Average Hourly Earnings growth to ease back to 3.8%. With wages and net jobs additions blowing well past expectations across the board, rate market expectations of a higher pace of rate cuts have taken a huge hit to round out a middling-at-best trading week. Stocks advanced on Friday after an expectation-defying jobs report gave investors confidence in the health of the economy. The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 5,751.07, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.22% to 18,137.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 341.16 points, or 0.81%, to notch an all-time closing high of 42,352.75. The S&P 500 finished up 0.22% on the week, while the Dow inched higher by 0.09%. The Nasdaq added 0.1% for the week, a major turnaround given the tech-heavy index came into Friday’s session down more than 1%. The next week will bring closely watched inflation data and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. A handful of major corporate earnings reports are also due. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6700 - 0.6900 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6050 - 0.6250 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9100 - 1.9300 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9050 - 0.9250 ▼
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Aussie dollar continues to trade lower due to risk aversion sentiment
Oct 3, 2024 | 17:00 pmAUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6836 at time of writing. AUD/USD saw its selling bias gather extra steam on Thursday. That said, the pair broke below the key 0.6900 support to hit new multi-day lows near 0.6830. Extra losses could see AUD/USD drop to the interim 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 0.6699 and 0.6685, respectively, prior to the September low. On the local front yesterday, the Balance of Trade in Australia printed a surplus in August, which exceeded estimates of AU$5.5 billion, coming at AU$5.64 billion, up from July’s AU$5.636 billion. Besides that, Australia’s Judo Bank Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decelerates from 52.5 to 50.5 in September. This could refrain the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) from adopting a hawkish stance amid concerns that the economy is cooling. Looking ahead today and the Australian economic docket will feature Home Loans and Investment Lending for Homes in August. Key Movers The US dollar traded higher on Thursday after former president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley commented on Bloomberg television that a 25 basis point rate cut is the only healthy way forward. This diminishes chances of another large interest-rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. On the local front, there were 225,000 initial jobless claims in the week ending September 28, the weekly data published by the US Department of Labor (DOL) showed on Thursday. This print followed the previous week's print of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and came in slightly worse than the market expectation of 220,000. September S&P Global Services PMI was recorded at 55.2, slightly below the expected and previous value of 55.4. Additionally, the U.S. September S&P Global Composite PMI was finalised at 54, which is lower than the anticipated 54.3 and the prior value of 54.4. Looking ahead, investors are anticipating Friday’s upcoming Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) jobs print. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6750 - 0.6950 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6300 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9100 - 1.9399 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9150 - 0.9350 ▲
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Aussie dollar continues to trade below 69 US cents
Oct 2, 2024 | 17:00 pmAUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6879 at time of writing. The Australian dollar (AUD) registered minimal losses against the USD late into Wednesday’s North American session after hitting a daily high of US$0.6915. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has remained wary that inflation is too high, failing to provide hints of the beginning of its easing cycle. Earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that Retail Sales on Tuesday were better than expected, justifying the RBA’s stance to hold rates higher. Today, we will see the release of the Goods Trade Balance. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers. Key Movers AUDJPY retraces its recent losses registered in the previous day, trading around 99.40 during Wednesday’s European session. The Japanese yen (JPY) received downward pressure as the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions from September’s Monetary Policy Meeting indicates no immediate plans for additional rate hikes. The BoJ intends to maintain its accommodating stance but remains open to adjustments if economic conditions show significant improvement. The USD recovered against the yen on Wednesday, rallying over 2% after Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba commented the economic environment is not ready for additional rate hikes. USDJPY has picked up traction again above 144.00, trading 0.50% higher at 144.27. In the US Private sector, employment rose 143,000 in September, and annual pay was up 4.7% year-over-year, according to Wednesday's Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report. The jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained anonymised and aggregated payroll data to provide a representative picture of the private-sector labour market. Market participants have placed the odds of the Fed cutting rates by 25 bps at 64%, while the chances for a more significant 50 bps cut have diminished to 36%, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6800 - 0.7000 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6150 - 0.6350 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0900 - 1.1100 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9200 - 0.9400 ▼
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Forex Today: Stocks Fall & Dollar Firms on Iranian Military Escalation
Oct 1, 2024 | 23:46 pmIran Attacks Israel With Hundreds of Missiles, Entire Israeli Population Shelters for an Hour; US Dollar Rises, Stocks Fall Except in China; Crude Oil Firms on Fears of Escalating Mideast Conflict
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Aussie dollar falls below US$0.69
Oct 1, 2024 | 17:00 pmAUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6880 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar faces slight selling pressure as the Greenback bounces back strongly after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell pushed back market speculation for another interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) in November. Meanwhile, the near-term appeal of the Australian dollar remains firm as Australia’s economic outlook has been improved by China’s massive liquidity stimulus. On the local data front yesterday ABS data showed that total dwellings approved last month fell 6.1% to 13,991. That partially reversed the 11% increase in July (up from 10.4% previously). Private-sector house approvals rose 0.5% to 9,338 in August following a 0.9% rise in July. Private house approvals are now up 20% from the unexpected low of 7,713 in January of this year. The totals for July and August were the highest monthly figures since late 2022. Excluding houses, private-sector dwellings fell 16.5% to 4,418, as approvals for apartments, units, townhouses and the like dropped. That was half the 32.5% jump in July as a backlog of approvals in local government was cleared. Looking forward to the rest of the week and on Thursday we will see the release of the Goods Trade Balance. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and domestic manufacturers' prices. Key Movers Overnight the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises sharply to near 101.00. However, 10-year US Treasury yields tumble to near 3.75%. The US Dollar bounced back strongly after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell pushed back market speculation for another interest rate cut of 50 basis points (bps) in November. US manufacturing held steady in September. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 47.2 last month. Despite holding steady, the reading still came in weak, as a PMI below 50 indicates a contraction in the manufacturing sector. The data sets investors up for Friday's September jobs report, the highlight in a week full of closely watched economic data. Investors are watching for confirmation that the US economy is cooling, rather than crumbling. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the declines, shedding around 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved about 0.4% lower, while the benchmark S&P 500 finished the day down roughly 0.9%. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6800 - 0.7000 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6100 - 0.6300 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.0950 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9200 - 0.9400 ▼
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Forex Today: Powell’s More Hawkish Tone Boosts Greenback
Sep 30, 2024 | 23:33 pmFed Chair Powell Signals No Rush To Cut Rates ; US Dollar & Treasury Yields Advance; German Preliminary CPI Lower Than Expected
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Forex Today: China Soars, Japan Slumps
Sep 29, 2024 | 23:52 pmJapanese Nikkei 225 Index Plunges by Over 4%, Chinese HSI Up By 4%; AUD, NZD Advance in Forex Market, Yen Surges Further on Ishiba Win
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Forex Today: S&P 500 Index, Euro, British Pound Retreat from Highs
Sep 25, 2024 | 23:33 pmS&P 500 Closes at New Record High; GBP/USD Briefly Breaks $1.3400, EUR/USD Trades at 1-Year High; Gold Remains Bullish; Markets Await SNB Policy Meeting, US Final GDP
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Forex Today: Gold Reaches New Record High of $2,670
Sep 25, 2024 | 00:09 amGold Trades at $2,670 Record in Tokyo Session; S&P 500 Closes at New Record High; GBP/USD Powers to 2.5 Year High; Australian CPI Falls to 2.7% as Expected
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Australian Central Bank Maintains Cash Rate at 4.35%
Sep 24, 2024 | 03:27 amThe Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35% following the latest meeting of the Bank’s Board on Tuesday. RBA’s Bullock says no cuts expected for “near term”. Australian dollar shows limited reaction as the RBA decision was expected.
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Forex Today: RBA Leaves Rated Unchanged at 4.35%
Sep 23, 2024 | 23:35 pmRBA Has Little Effect on Aussie; Gold Trades at $2,638 Record in Tokyo Session; Stock Markets Remain Bullish as S&P 500 Closes at New Record; Markets Await Australian CPI Data
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Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High
Sep 22, 2024 | 23:18 pmGold Trades at $2,631 in Tokyo Session; Stock Markets Remain Bullish; Markets Await Flash Manufacturing & Services Data
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United States Federal Reserve Chops Rates by 0.50%
Sep 19, 2024 | 01:36 amThe Federal Reserve lowered interest rates on Wednesday by 0.50%, or 50 basis points, bringing the benchmark interest rate to a target range of 4.75 percent to 5.50 percent.
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Forex Today: Stock Markets Rising Again After Fed Volatility
Sep 18, 2024 | 23:22 pmUS Fed Cuts by 0.50%, Promises 0.50% More By 2025; Risky Assets Decline Then Rebound on “Sell the Fact”; Gold, S&P 500 Index Trade at New All-Time Highs; Markets Await Bank of England, Bank of Japan
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Forex Today: S&P 500 Touches Record Ahead of Fed Meeting Today
Sep 17, 2024 | 23:20 pmS&P 500 Closes Lower After Touching All-Time High; CME FedWatch Tool Shows 65% Expect Deep Rate Cut; Markets Mostly Consolidate Ahead of Fed Meeting; Canadian Inflation Dips; UK Inflation Data Awaits
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Forex Today: Markets Expecting 0.50% Fed Rate Cut
Sep 16, 2024 | 23:32 pmCME FedWatch Tool Shows 67% Expect Deep Rate Cut Tomorrow; US Dollar Loses More Ground; US Treasury Yields Fall to Fresh Long-Term Lows; Gold, Yen Decline After Making New Highs
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Forex Today: Gold, Japanese Yen Rise to New Highs
Sep 15, 2024 | 23:13 pmGold Trades Near $2,600 During Asian Session; USD/JPY Reaches New 1-Year Low Below ¥140; Trump Survives Assassination Attempt; Markets Await Fed; Bank of Canada Seemingly Open To Cutting Rates Faster
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Forex Today: US Inflation Falls to 2.5%
Sep 11, 2024 | 23:12 pmUS Core CPI Data a Touch Hot; New Consensus Fed Won’t Cut by 0.50% This Month; Stock Markets Make Strong Gains; ECB Expected to Cut Main Refinancing Rate Today; Betting Markets See Small Swing to Harris After Presidential Debate
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US Inflation Drops to 2.5% in August
Sep 11, 2024 | 11:18 amUS inflation for August rose 2.5% year-on-year, in line with the market estimate. The US dollar posts gains against the major currencies today. Market odds of a 25 basis-point cut this month increase to 85%.
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Forex Today: US Dollar, Stocks, Yields Fall Ahead of CPI Data
Sep 10, 2024 | 22:40 pmUS CPI Data Keenly Awaited; Japanese Yen Rallies on BoJ Comments, USD/JPY Reaches 9-Month Low; Betting Markets See Small Swing to Harris After Presidential Debate
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Forex Today: US Dollar, Stocks Make Small Recovery
Sep 9, 2024 | 23:08 pmUS Dollar and Stock Markets Gain Some Ground; Spectre of Chinese Deflation Subdues Asian Stocks; Yellen Says “No Red Light” for US Economy
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Forex Today: Markets Fear Fed Cutting Too Slowly
Sep 9, 2024 | 00:00 amFears Persist Fed Not Done Enough to Prevent Hard Landing; Asian Stocks Continue Decline, But US Futures, Yields Advance; Quiet Monday Likely
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Bank of Canada Cuts Interest Rate to 4.25%
Sep 5, 2024 | 00:09 amThe Bank of Canada lowered rates on Wednesday by 25 basis points, lowering its key interest rate to 4.25%.
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Forex Today: Fears Grow of Hard Landing for US Economy
Sep 4, 2024 | 22:26 pmUS Yield Curve Dis-inverts; Global Stocks Continue Decline; Japanese Yen Advances Strongly; Most Commodities Continue Decline; Disappointing US Jobs Data
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Forex Today: Stocks, Commodities Fall Strongly, Yen Advances
Sep 3, 2024 | 23:02 pmGlobal Stocks Trade Sharply Lower; Japanese Yen Advances Firmly; Most Commodities Continue Decline; Aussie Lower on Poor GDP Numbers
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Forex Today: Markets See Weak Risk-Off Sentiment
Sep 2, 2024 | 22:33 pmGlobal Stocks Trade Lower; Japanese Yen and US Dollar Strongest in Forex; Most Commodities Decline
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Forex Today: Japanese Yen Strengthening Again
Sep 1, 2024 | 23:18 pmStronger Yen as More Institutions Forecast USD/JPY Below ¥140; Hawkish Rate Comment from RBA; Commodities Lower in Early Trading
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United States GDP Revised Upwards to 3%, Unemployment Claims Drop Marginally
Aug 29, 2024 | 09:27 amAccording to the BEA, United States second-estimate GDP for the second quarter, released earlier today, indicated that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.0%.
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Inflation in Canada Drops to 2.5% in July
Aug 20, 2024 | 23:12 pmCanada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.5% year-on-year in July, down from 2.7% and the lowest level since March 2021.
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Forex Today: Lower US Inflation Boosts Risk, Knocks Greenback
Aug 14, 2024 | 23:36 pmUS CPI Drops From 3.0% to 2.9%, Stock Markets Edge Higher; US Dollar Looking Heavy on Support; Gold Flirts With Record High; EUR/USD Reaches 2024 High at $1.1050
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US Inflation Dips to 2.9%, Lowest Level in Over Three Years
Aug 14, 2024 | 23:24 pmUS inflation for July rose 2.9% year-on-year, close to expectations. The US Dollar is showing little reaction to the inflation report.
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Forex Today: Surprise New Zealand Interest Rate Cut
Aug 13, 2024 | 23:17 pmRBNZ Cuts Rates by 0.25%; Markets Await US, UK CPI Data; Stock Markets Continue Recovery; Gold Flirts With Record High; EUR/USD Tests $1.1000
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Forex Today: Crude Oil Rises Strongly on Middle East Tension
Aug 12, 2024 | 23:42 pmCrude Oil Rises by Over 3% as Iran Expected to Attack Israel; Stock Markets Continue Recovery; Gold Flirts With Record High
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