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*Japan M2 Money Stock +2.7% On Year In May
Live Forex news Jun 8, 2023 | 21:51 pmJapan M2 Money Stock +2.7% On Year In May The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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South Korea Has $0.79 Billion Current Account Shortfall
Live Forex news Jun 8, 2023 | 21:17 pmSouth Korea posted a current account deficit of $0.79 billion in April, the Bank of Korea said on Friday. That exceeded expectations for a shortfall of $1.38 billion following the downwardly revised $0.16 billion surplus in March (originally $0.27 billion).[…]
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*South Korea Current Account Deficit $0.79 Billion In April
Live Forex news Jun 8, 2023 | 21:06 pmSouth Korea Current Account Deficit $0.79 Billion In April The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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China Inflation Data Due On Friday
Live Forex news Jun 8, 2023 | 20:00 pmChina will on Friday release May numbers for consumer and producer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In April, consumer prices were down 0.1 percent on month and up 0.1 percent on year, while producer prices sank[…]
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U.S. Dollar Moves Notably Lower On Jobless Claims Data
Live Forex news Jun 8, 2023 | 18:20 pmAfter turning in a relatively lackluster performance over the past few days, the value of the U.S. dollar has shown a notable move to the downside during trading on Thursday. Currently, the U.S. dollar index is just off its worst[…]
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Forex News
Forex News - Instaforex
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Australia Wage Price Index Rises 0.8% In Q422/02/2023 04:44:00The wage price index in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Australia Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the three months prior. On a yearly basis, wages climbed 3.3 percent - also missing forecasts for 3.5 percent but up from 3.1 percent in the previous quarter. Private sector wage growth was up 0.8 percent on quarter and 3.6 percent on year, while public sector wage growth added 0.7 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Australia Construction Work Done Slips 0.4% In Q422/02/2023 04:39:00The value of total construction work done in Australia was down a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2022, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$55.272 billion. That missed expectations for an increase of 1.4 percent following the 2.2 percent gain in the three months prior. On a yearly basis, construction was up 1.0 percent. Building work was down 1.6 percent on quarter and 1.4 percent on year at A$30.578 billion, while engineering work rose 1.0 percent on quarter and 4.3 percent on year to A$24.693 billion. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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*Australia Wage Price Index +0.8% On Quarter, +3.3 On Year In Q422/02/2023 04:32:00Australia Wage Price Index +0.8% On Quarter, +3.3 On Year In Q4 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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*Australia Construction Work Done -0.4% On Quarter In Q422/02/2023 04:31:00Australia Construction Work Done -0.4% On Quarter In Q4 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Japan Producer Prices Climb 1.6% On Year In January22/02/2023 04:05:00Producer prices in Japan were up 1.6 percent on year in January, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday, after rising 1.5 percent in December. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.3 percent after rising 0.1 percent in the previous month. Excluding international transportation, prices climbed 1.5 percent on year and fell 0.2 percent on month. That follows the 1.2 percent yearly increase and the 0.2 percent monthly gain a month earlier. Prices for financial services fell 0.3 percent on month and gained 2.0 percent on year, while prices for real estate services slid 0.5 percent on month and climbed 1.4 percent on year. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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*Japan Producer Prices -0.3% On Month, +1.6% On Year In January22/02/2023 03:51:00Japan Producer Prices -0.3% On Month, +1.6% On Year In January The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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New Zealand Rate Decision On Tap For Wednesday22/02/2023 02:23:00The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. The RBNZ is expected to hike its Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points, from 4.25 percent to 4.75 percent. Japan will release January figures for producer prices, with forecasts suggesting no change at 1.5 percent on year. Australia will provide Q4 numbers for construction work and wage prices. Construction work done is expected to rise 1.5 percent on quarter, slowing from 2.2 percent in the previous three months. Wage prices are called higher by 1.0 percent on quarter and 3.5 percent on year after rising 1.0 percent on quarter and 3.1 percent on year in Q3. Hong Kong will see Q4 data for gross domestic product, with forecasts calling for a flat quarterly reading and a 4.2 percent annual decline. That follows declines of 2.6 percent on quarter and 4.6 percent on year in the previous three months. Taiwan will release Q4 numbers for gross domestic product, with forecasts calling for a decline of 086 percent on year following the 4.01 percent expansion in the three months prior. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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U.S. Dollar Showing Modest Move To The Upside22/02/2023 01:22:00Following the lackluster performance seen during the Presidents Day holiday on Monday, the value of the U.S. dollar has moved modestly higher during trading on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar index is currently up 0.32 points or 0.3 percent at 104.18 after reaching its best intraday level in well over a month. The buck is trading at 134.97 yen compared to the 134.25 yen it fetched on Monday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.0647 compared to yesterday's $1.0686. The dollar continued to benefit from its appeal as a safe haven amid concerns about the outlook for interest rates. Recent economic data has led to worries the Federal Reserve may raise rates higher than currently anticipated and keep rates at an elevated level for an extended period. On Wednesday, the Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which could shed additional light on the outlook for interest rates. Traders largely shrugged off a report from the National Association of Realtors showing existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased for the twelfth consecutive month in January. NAR said existing home sales slid 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.00 million in January after tumbling by 2.2 percent to a revised rate of 4.12 million in December. The continued decline surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 1.5 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Crude Oil Closes Modestly Lower Following Volatile Session22/02/2023 00:26:00Following the steep drop seen last Friday, the price of crude oil saw considerable volatility over the course of the trading session on Tuesday. In its last day as the front-month contract, crude for March delivery edged down $0.16 or 0.2 percent to $76.16 a barrel after jumping as high as $77.51 a barrel and falling as low as $75.69 a barrel. The more actively traded crude for April delivery dipped $0.19 or 0.3 percent to $76.29 a barrel after reaching a high of $77.74 a barrel and a low of $75.90 a barrel. With the modest decrease on the day, the price of crude oil closed lower for the fifth consecutive session. The volatility on the session came as traders weighed concerns about the impact of higher U.S. interest rates against optimism about increased demand from China. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which could shed additional light on the outlook for interest rates. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Ten-Year Yield Surges To Three-Month Closing High22/02/2023 00:15:00Treasuries showed a substantial move to the downside during trading on Tuesday, more than offsetting the modest rebound seen last Friday. Bond prices regained some ground after seeing early weakness but moved back to the downside as the day progressed. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, surged 12.7 basis points to 3.955 percent. The ten-year yield extended the downward trend seen throughout February, reaching its highest closing level in well three months. Concerns about the outlook for interest rates continued to weigh on treasuries, with recent economic data leading to worries the Federal Reserve may raise rates higher than currently anticipated and keep rates at an elevated level for an extended period. On Wednesday, the Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which could shed additional light on the outlook for interest rates. Traders largely shrugged off a report from the National Association of Realtors showing existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased for the twelfth consecutive month in January. NAR said existing home sales slid 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.00 million in January after tumbling by 2.2 percent to a revised rate of 4.12 million in December. The continued decline surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 1.5 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. Trading activity on Wednesday may be somewhat subdued ahead of the release of the Fed minutes relatively late in the session. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Gold Shows Another Modest Move To The Downside21/02/2023 23:54:00After ending last Friday's trading slightly lower, the price of gold showed another modest move to the downside during trading on Tuesday. Gold for April delivery slipped $7.70 or 0.4 percent to $1,842.50 an ounce after edging down $1.60 or 0.1 percent to $1,850.20 an ounce in the previous session. The dip by gold prices came amid a modest increase in the value of the U.S. dollar, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.3 percent. A surge by treasury yields also weighed on the precious metal amid ongoing concerns about the outlook for interest rates following recent U.S. economic data. The benchmark ten-year yield has more than offset the dip seen last Friday, reaching its highest intraday level in over three months. On Wednesday, the Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting, which could shed additional light on the outlook for interest rates. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Two-Year Note Auction Attracts Average Demand21/02/2023 22:19:00Kicking off this week's series of announcements of the results of its long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department revealed Tuesday that this month's auction of $42 billion worth of two-year notes attracted average demand. The two-year note auction drew a high yield of 4.673 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61. Last month, the Treasury also sold $42 billion worth of two-year notes, drawing a high yield of 4.139 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.94. The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold. The ten previous two-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63. The Treasury is due to announce the results of this month's auctions of $43 billion worth of five-year notes and $35 billion worth of seven-year notes on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Canadian Dollar Retreats As Annual Inflation Slows21/02/2023 19:23:00The Canadian dollar eased against its major counterparts in the New York session on Tuesday, as the nation's annual inflation slowed more than expected in January. Data from Statistics Canada showed that the CPI rose 5.9 percent year over year in January, following a 6.3 percent increase in December. Economists had expected consumer prices to increase by 6.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 4.9 percent on a yearly basis in January, following a gain of 5.3 percent in the previous month. Economists had expected a 5.5 percent increase. The CPI rose 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis in January, following a flat reading in December. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, eased to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent in the previous month. The loonie retreated to 99.84 against the yen and 1.4403 against the euro, from its early fresh 2-month high of 100.30 and a 5-day high of 1.4327, respectively. The loonie retraced its early gains against the greenback and touched a 4-day low of 1.3508. The loonie eased to 0.9278 against the aussie, off an early 4-day high of 0.9237. This may be compared to a 6-day low of 0.9311 seen in the Asian session. The loonie is seen finding support around 98.00 against the yen, 1.45 against the euro, 1.36 against the greenback and 0.94 against the aussie. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline For Twelfth Straight Month In January21/02/2023 19:22:00Existing home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased for the twelfth consecutive month in January, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday. NAR said existing home sales slid 0.7 percent to an annual rate of 4.00 million in January after tumbling by 2.2 percent to a revised rate of 4.12 million in December. The continued decline surprised economists, who had expected existing home sales to inch up by 0.1 percent compared to the 1.5 percent slump originally reported for the previous month. "Home sales are bottoming out," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Prices vary depending on a market's affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines." The unexpected decrease reflected weakness in the Northeast and Midwest, where existing home sales plunged by 3.8 percent and 5.0 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the report said existing home sales in the South jumped by 1.1 percent, while existing home sales in the West surged by 2.9 percent. NAR also said total housing inventory at the end of January was 980,000 units, up 2.1 percent from 960,000 units in December and up 15.3 percent from 850,000 a year ago. The unsold inventory represents 2.9 months of supply at the current sales pace, unchanged from December but up from 1.6 months in January 2022. "Inventory remains low, but buyers are beginning to have better negotiating power," Yun said. "Homes sitting on the market for more than 60 days can be purchased for around 10% less than the original list price." The report said the median existing home price was $359,000 in January, down 2.1 percent from $366,500 in December but up 1.3 percent from $354,300 a year ago. On Friday, the Commerce Department is scheduled to release a separate report on new home sales in the month of January. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Currency Markets Remain Tethered To Monetary Policy Cues21/02/2023 19:05:00Data showing stubborn inflation in the U.S and the hawkish central bank commentary it triggered, dictated U.S. Dollar's movements through most of the week ended February 17. Market movements in other currencies too were dominated in some way or the other by sentiment surrounding the respective central bank's inflation combat and the expectations thereof. Anxiety ahead of the release of the U.S. CPI data and geopolitical tensions lifted the Dollar at the commencement of the week. Amidst expectations that the annual CPI in January would fall to 6.2 percent from 6.5 percent earlier, readings showed CPI at 6.4 percent. Year-on-year core inflation, which was seen falling to 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent earlier, also dropped to 5.6 percent only. The report by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed that in the month of January, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.5 percent, after increasing 0.1 percent in December. The negative inflation surprise, the assessment that disinflation less widespread than originally thought of, and the hawkish commentary by Fed officials that followed, provided enough ammunition to the Dollar. An unexpected jump in retail sales, an acceleration in producer price inflation as well as a less-than-expected number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits reinforced the resilience of the U.S. economy and exacerbated the Dollar's rally. Amidst calls for a 50-basis points rate hike in the next review, the Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the Dollar's strength against a basket of 6 currencies, touched a high of 104.67 on Friday, a level last seen in the first week of January. The DXY's low point during the week was 102.59 touched on Tuesday. Though the week saw a surge in the U.S. Dollar, the weekly addition to the Dollar Index was relatively modest. The DXY gained only 0.22 percent in the past week, strengthening from 103.63 on February 10 to 103.86 by February 17. Aggressive warnings by officials of the European Central Bank on the risk of investors underestimating the persistence of inflation, given the strength of underlying price pressures and faster wage increases provided support to the euro during the week. The common currency of the Euro Zone gained 0.18 percent against the Dollar, strengthening to 1.0694 on February 17, from 1.0675 a week earlier. The EUR/USD pair ranged between a high of 1.0805 and a low of 1.0612 in the past week. The British pound however depreciated 0.19 percent against the U.S. Dollar over the course of the week. The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.2035 on February 17 from 1.2058 a week earlier. The pair touched a high of 1.2270 on Tuesday before touching a six-week low of 1.1914 by the end of the week, amidst data that showed retail sales in the U.K. rising by 0.5 percent in January. Markets were expecting it to drop by 0.3 percent. The Australian Dollar weakened more than half a percent to the U.S. Dollar during the week amidst a weak jobs data report that showed unemployment rising to 3.7 percent versus expectations of 3.5 percent. The weakness in the job market which is seen reducing the headroom available for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates further, dragged the Australian Dollar lower. The unexpected decline in the Westpac consumer sentiment index also dampened sentiment despite hopes of a demand boost from China. From the level of 0.6916 on February 10, the AUD/USD pair dropped to 0.6879 by February 17. The pair touched a high of 0.7030 on Tuesday and a low of 0.6811 on Friday. The most significant movement was the Japanese yen's 2.1-percent depreciation against the U.S. Dollar. The USD/JPY pair finished the week ended February 17 at 134.15 versus 131.41 a week earlier amidst uncertainty over the monetary policy path likely to be pursued by the new head of Bank of Japan, rising inflation, and falling growth. During the course of the week the pair ranged between a low of 131.30 on Monday and a high of 135.13 on Friday. Though the yen had benefitted at the appointment of an economist to the top role at Bank of Japan, the rally fizzled over reports that he expressed support for the central bank's current position. Data released during the course of the week that showed the Japanese economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter as well as the rise in U.S. treasury yields added to the yen's weakness. Currency markets continue to be tethered to monetary policy cues. The release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday as well as the inflation readings from Japan on Thursday and the PCE-based inflation readings from the U.S on Friday could provide further guidance on what lies ahead. Based on up-to-date expectations, the Dollar Index is currently at 104.21. The EUR/USD pair is hovering near 1.06 whereas the GBP/USD pair is close to 1.208. The USD/JPY pair is at 135.08. The Australian Dollar is currently trading at $0.6872. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Forex News Headlines - ForexLive
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Hong Kong Exchange is examining ways to continue trading during typhoons22/02/2023 04:55:00<p>Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing usually shuts down the stock market when the city is hit by severe weather such as typhoons. </p><p>Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the plan in his budget speech today the exchange is considering to continue trading under severe weather circumstances, citing a desire to continue to facilitate investor transactions utilisiing trends of remote working in the finance industry.</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan - Toyota will fully accept union demands for wage hike (did so last year also)22/02/2023 04:27:16<p>Info via Reuters, citing unnamed sources. </p><p>No further details. </p><p>The Bank of Japan and government are both keen on higher wages in Japan, arguing this would help stabilise inflation around target. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD and NZD, divergent moves22/02/2023 04:00:36<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/hong-kong-will-hand-out-hkd5000-consumption-vouchers-to-those-18-years-and-older-20230222/">Hong Kong will hand out HKD5,000 consumption vouchers to those 18 years and older</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/jpmorgan-strategists-say-equities-damage-has-been-done-fallout-is-likely-still-ahead-20230222/">JPMorgan strategists say equities "damage has been done ... fallout is likely still ahead"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-rate-hike-news-confernce-says-still-forecasting-a-recession-9-to-12-months-period-20230222/">RBNZ rate hike news conference, says still forecasting a recession 9 to 12 months period</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-data-january-credit-card-spending-44-mm-prior-16-179-yy-124-20230222/">New Zealand data: January credit card spending +4.4% m/m (prior -1.6%) +17.9% y/y (+12.4%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-tamura-says-appropriate-to-maintain-monetary-easing-20230222/">BOJ's Tamura says appropriate to maintain monetary easing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nzdusd-higher-after-the-hawkish-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-20230222/">NZD/USD higher after the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-mid-point-today-at-68759-20230222/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8759</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-hikes-cash-rate-by-50bp-as-widely-expected-20230222/">RBNZ hikes cash rate by 50bp, as widely expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-data-q4-construction-work-completed-a-huge-miss-at-04-qq-expected-15-20230222/">Australian data - Q4 construction work completed a huge miss at -0.4% q/q (expected +1.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-wages-data-q4-2022-08-qq-vs-expected-1-20230222/">Australian Wages data Q4 2022: +0.8% q/q (vs. expected +1%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/us-exchange-iex-talks-with-coinbase-aim-is-federally-approved-digital-asset-marketplace-20230222/">US exchange IEX talks with Coinbase, aim is federally approved digital asset marketplace</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/markets-are-waking-up-expecting-more-central-bank-rate-hikes-as-inflation-proves-sticky-20230222/">Markets are waking up, expecting "more central bank rate hikes as inflation proves sticky"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-services-producer-price-index-jan-16-yy-expected-15-20230221/">Japan Services Producer Price Index (Jan.) +1.6% y/y (expected +1.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/westpacs-australian-leading-index-is-stuck-in-negative-territory-20230221/">Westpac's Australian Leading Index is "stuck in negative territory"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-100-barrel-oil-forecast-is-getting-trotted-out-again-20230221/">Goldman Sachs $100 / barrel oil forecast is getting trotted out again</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-reuters-tankan-february-manufacturing-index-5-prior-6-20230221/">Japan Reuters Tankan (February): Manufacturing index -5 (prior -6)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/jpmorgans-kolanovic-says-thinks-could-see-more-downward-pressure-on-equites-20230221/">JPMorgan’s Kolanovic says thinks could see more downward pressure on equities</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-wages-data-due-today-likely-to-keep-the-pressure-on-rba-20230221/">Australian wages data due today, likely to keep the pressure on RBA</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-january-trade-balance-nzd-195-prior-636m-20230221/">New Zealand January trade balance NZD -1.95bn (prior -636m)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-wednesday-22-february-2023-20230221/">Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 22 February 2023</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-close-near-lows-20230221/">Stocks close near lows</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-strong-data-keeps-the-us-dollar-bid-canadian-cpi-slips-20230221/">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Strong data keeps the US dollar bid, Canadian CPI slips</a></li></ul><p class="western"> The Australian dollar lost ground during the session after Q4 wage growth data came in softer than expected, at +0.8% q/q vs. the +1% expected. The y/y on wage growth figure was +3.1% which is far below the current official inflation rate at 7.8%. Negative real wage growth is not supportive of wage-price spiralling inflation and takes some of the heat off the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates. Some, but not much. The cash rate is 3.35% against that 7.8% headline CPI. There is thus still work for the RBA to do with a March 7, the next policy meeting date, looking to be another ‘no brainer’ rate hike. </p><p class="western">The New Zealand dollar, on the other hand, has net moved higher for the session, although it off its high. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand ‘looked through’ the ‘short term’ cyclone devastation impacts and hiked rates by the widely expected 50bp. More details on their reasoning, and their warning that there are higher rates yet to come, in the bullet points above. </p><p class="western">USD/JPY had a trip to the downside, losing 30-odd points before recovering to more or less flat on the day. We had public comments from Bank of Japan policy board member Tamura, who supports a review of BOJ policy but nevertheless affirmed that it is appropriate to maintain monetary easing. The Bank of Japan was in the JGB market today, on the bid, as yields rose once again. this is often described as "emergency bond buying" despite being a regular occurrence. </p><p class="western">Offshore yuan (CNH) fell to its lowest since around January 4 this year, basically fully retracing all of its January gains. </p><p class="western">Asian equity markets:</p><ul> <li><p class="western"> Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.3%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> China’s Shanghai Composite -0.25%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.1%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> South Korea’s KOSPI -1.3%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.4% </p> </li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD and NZD, divergent moves22/02/2023 04:00:36<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/hong-kong-will-hand-out-hkd5000-consumption-vouchers-to-those-18-years-and-older-20230222/">Hong Kong will hand out HKD5,000 consumption vouchers to those 18 years and older</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/jpmorgan-strategists-say-equities-damage-has-been-done-fallout-is-likely-still-ahead-20230222/">JPMorgan strategists say equities "damage has been done ... fallout is likely still ahead"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-rate-hike-news-confernce-says-still-forecasting-a-recession-9-to-12-months-period-20230222/">RBNZ rate hike news conference, says still forecasting a recession 9 to 12 months period</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-data-january-credit-card-spending-44-mm-prior-16-179-yy-124-20230222/">New Zealand data: January credit card spending +4.4% m/m (prior -1.6%) +17.9% y/y (+12.4%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-tamura-says-appropriate-to-maintain-monetary-easing-20230222/">BOJ's Tamura says appropriate to maintain monetary easing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nzdusd-higher-after-the-hawkish-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-20230222/">NZD/USD higher after the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-mid-point-today-at-68759-20230222/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8759</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-hikes-cash-rate-by-50bp-as-widely-expected-20230222/">RBNZ hikes cash rate by 50bp, as widely expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-data-q4-construction-work-completed-a-huge-miss-at-04-qq-expected-15-20230222/">Australian data - Q4 construction work completed a huge miss at -0.4% q/q (expected +1.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-wages-data-q4-2022-08-qq-vs-expected-1-20230222/">Australian Wages data Q4 2022: +0.8% q/q (vs. expected +1%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/us-exchange-iex-talks-with-coinbase-aim-is-federally-approved-digital-asset-marketplace-20230222/">US exchange IEX talks with Coinbase, aim is federally approved digital asset marketplace</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/markets-are-waking-up-expecting-more-central-bank-rate-hikes-as-inflation-proves-sticky-20230222/">Markets are waking up, expecting "more central bank rate hikes as inflation proves sticky"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-services-producer-price-index-jan-16-yy-expected-15-20230221/">Japan Services Producer Price Index (Jan.) +1.6% y/y (expected +1.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/westpacs-australian-leading-index-is-stuck-in-negative-territory-20230221/">Westpac's Australian Leading Index is "stuck in negative territory"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-100-barrel-oil-forecast-is-getting-trotted-out-again-20230221/">Goldman Sachs $100 / barrel oil forecast is getting trotted out again</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-reuters-tankan-february-manufacturing-index-5-prior-6-20230221/">Japan Reuters Tankan (February): Manufacturing index -5 (prior -6)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/jpmorgans-kolanovic-says-thinks-could-see-more-downward-pressure-on-equites-20230221/">JPMorgan’s Kolanovic says thinks could see more downward pressure on equities</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-wages-data-due-today-likely-to-keep-the-pressure-on-rba-20230221/">Australian wages data due today, likely to keep the pressure on RBA</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-january-trade-balance-nzd-195-prior-636m-20230221/">New Zealand January trade balance NZD -1.95bn (prior -636m)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-wednesday-22-february-2023-20230221/">Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 22 February 2023</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-close-near-lows-20230221/">Stocks close near lows</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-strong-data-keeps-the-us-dollar-bid-canadian-cpi-slips-20230221/">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Strong data keeps the US dollar bid, Canadian CPI slips</a></li></ul><p class="western"> The Australian dollar lost ground during the session after Q4 wage growth data came in softer than expected, at +0.8% q/q vs. the +1% expected. The y/y on wage growth figure was +3.1% which is far below the current official inflation rate at 7.8%. Negative real wage growth is not supportive of wage-price spiralling inflation and takes some of the heat off the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates. Some, but not much. The cash rate is 3.35% against that 7.8% headline CPI. There is thus still work for the RBA to do with a March 7, the next policy meeting date, looking to be another ‘no brainer’ rate hike. </p><p class="western">The New Zealand dollar, on the other hand, has net moved higher for the session, although it off its high. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand ‘looked through’ the ‘short term’ cyclone devastation impacts and hiked rates by the widely expected 50bp. More details on their reasoning, and their warning that there are higher rates yet to come, in the bullet points above. </p><p class="western">USD/JPY had a trip to the downside, losing 30-odd points before recovering to more or less flat on the day. We had public comments from Bank of Japan policy board member Tamura, who supports a review of BOJ policy but nevertheless affirmed that it is appropriate to maintain monetary easing. The Bank of Japan was in the JGB market today, on the bid, as yields rose once again. this is often described as "emergency bond buying" despite being a regular occurrence. </p><p class="western">Offshore yuan (CNH) fell to its lowest since around January 4 this year, basically fully retracing all of its January gains. while on China, Goldman Sachs wrote in a report that its non-Chinese hedge fund clients boosted their holdings of Chinese stocks from 7% to 14% in the past quarter. 14% is a record high. </p><p class="western">Asian equity markets:</p><ul> <li><p class="western"> Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.3%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> China’s Shanghai Composite -0.25%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.1%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> South Korea’s KOSPI -1.3%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.4% </p> </li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: AUD and NZD, divergent moves22/02/2023 04:00:36<ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/hong-kong-will-hand-out-hkd5000-consumption-vouchers-to-those-18-years-and-older-20230222/">Hong Kong will hand out HKD5,000 consumption vouchers to those 18 years and older</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/jpmorgan-strategists-say-equities-damage-has-been-done-fallout-is-likely-still-ahead-20230222/">JPMorgan strategists say equities "damage has been done ... fallout is likely still ahead"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-rate-hike-news-confernce-says-still-forecasting-a-recession-9-to-12-months-period-20230222/">RBNZ rate hike news conference, says still forecasting a recession 9 to 12 months period</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-data-january-credit-card-spending-44-mm-prior-16-179-yy-124-20230222/">New Zealand data: January credit card spending +4.4% m/m (prior -1.6%) +17.9% y/y (+12.4%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bojs-tamura-says-appropriate-to-maintain-monetary-easing-20230222/">BOJ's Tamura says appropriate to maintain monetary easing</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nzdusd-higher-after-the-hawkish-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-20230222/">NZD/USD higher after the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/pboc-sets-usd-cny-mid-point-today-at-68759-20230222/">PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8759</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-hikes-cash-rate-by-50bp-as-widely-expected-20230222/">RBNZ hikes cash rate by 50bp, as widely expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-data-q4-construction-work-completed-a-huge-miss-at-04-qq-expected-15-20230222/">Australian data - Q4 construction work completed a huge miss at -0.4% q/q (expected +1.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-wages-data-q4-2022-08-qq-vs-expected-1-20230222/">Australian Wages data Q4 2022: +0.8% q/q (vs. expected +1%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/us-exchange-iex-talks-with-coinbase-aim-is-federally-approved-digital-asset-marketplace-20230222/">US exchange IEX talks with Coinbase, aim is federally approved digital asset marketplace</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/markets-are-waking-up-expecting-more-central-bank-rate-hikes-as-inflation-proves-sticky-20230222/">Markets are waking up, expecting "more central bank rate hikes as inflation proves sticky"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-services-producer-price-index-jan-16-yy-expected-15-20230221/">Japan Services Producer Price Index (Jan.) +1.6% y/y (expected +1.5%)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/westpacs-australian-leading-index-is-stuck-in-negative-territory-20230221/">Westpac's Australian Leading Index is "stuck in negative territory"</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-100-barrel-oil-forecast-is-getting-trotted-out-again-20230221/">Goldman Sachs $100 / barrel oil forecast is getting trotted out again</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/japan-reuters-tankan-february-manufacturing-index-5-prior-6-20230221/">Japan Reuters Tankan (February): Manufacturing index -5 (prior -6)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/jpmorgans-kolanovic-says-thinks-could-see-more-downward-pressure-on-equites-20230221/">JPMorgan’s Kolanovic says thinks could see more downward pressure on equities</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-wages-data-due-today-likely-to-keep-the-pressure-on-rba-20230221/">Australian wages data due today, likely to keep the pressure on RBA</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/new-zealand-january-trade-balance-nzd-195-prior-636m-20230221/">New Zealand January trade balance NZD -1.95bn (prior -636m)</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/trade-ideas-thread-wednesday-22-february-2023-20230221/">Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 22 February 2023</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-close-near-lows-20230221/">Stocks close near lows</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-strong-data-keeps-the-us-dollar-bid-canadian-cpi-slips-20230221/">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Strong data keeps the US dollar bid, Canadian CPI slips</a></li></ul><p class="western"> The Australian dollar lost ground during the session after Q4 wage growth data came in softer than expected, at +0.8% q/q vs. the +1% expected. The y/y on wage growth figure was +3.1% which is far below the current official inflation rate at 7.8%. Negative real wage growth is not supportive of wage-price spiralling inflation and takes some of the heat off the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates. Some, but not much. The cash rate is 3.35% against that 7.8% headline CPI. There is thus still work for the RBA to do with a March 7, the next policy meeting date, looking to be another ‘no brainer’ rate hike. </p><p class="western">The New Zealand dollar, on the other hand, has net moved higher for the session, although it off its high. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand ‘looked through’ the ‘short term’ cyclone devastation impacts and hiked rates by the widely expected 50bp. More details on their reasoning, and their warning that there are higher rates yet to come, in the bullet points above. </p><p class="western">USD/JPY had a trip to the downside, losing 30-odd points before recovering to more or less flat on the day. We had public comments from Bank of Japan policy board member Tamura, who supports a review of BOJ policy but nevertheless affirmed that it is appropriate to maintain monetary easing.</p><p class="western">Offshore yuan (CNH) fell to its lowest since around January 4 this year, basically fully retracing all of its January gains. </p><p class="western">Asian equity markets:</p><ul> <li><p class="western"> Japan’s Nikkei 225 -1.3%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> China’s Shanghai Composite -0.25%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.1%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> South Korea’s KOSPI -1.3%</p> </li><li><p class="western"> Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.4% </p> </li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Hong Kong will hand out HKD5,000 consumption vouchers to those 18 years and older22/02/2023 03:27:34<p>An item in Hong Kong's budget. The government will give out HK$5,000 consumption vouchers to those 18 or above. </p><ul><li>Financial Secretary Paul Chan with the announcement. It comes as 2022 GDP was announced at -3.5% on the year. </li><li>Q4 GDP flat q/q and minus 4.4% y/y. Huge shrinkage. </li></ul><p>Chan provided forecasts:</p><ul><li>HK economy is expected to grow 3.5%-5.5% in 2023</li><li>Headline inflation projected at 2.5%</li><li>core, underlying, inflation expected at 2.9%</li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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New Zealand data: January credit card spending +4.4% m/m (prior -1.6%) +17.9% y/y (+12.4%)22/02/2023 02:05:56<p>New Zealand credit card spending for January 2023</p><p>+4.4% m/m </p><ul><li>prior -1.6%</li></ul><p>+17.9% y/y </p><ul><li>prior +12.4%</li></ul><p>----</p><p>Earlier from NZ:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-hikes-cash-rate-by-50bp-as-widely-expected-20230222/" rel="follow" target="_self" class="article-link vertical-align-baseline">RBNZ hikes cash rate by 50bp, as widely expected</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nzdusd-higher-after-the-hawkish-reserve-bank-of-new-zealand-decision-20230222/" rel="follow" target="_self" class="article-link">NZD/USD higher after the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision</a></li></ul><p>--</p><p>NZD update:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australian data - Q4 construction work completed a huge miss at -0.4% q/q (expected +1.5%)22/02/2023 00:49:17<p>This data was overshadowed by this:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/australian-wages-data-q4-2022-08-qq-vs-expected-1-20230222/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Australian Wages data Q4 2022: +0.8% q/q (vs. expected +1%)</a></li></ul><p>ps the prior for Construction Word Done has been revised to +3.78% (from that +2.2 shown in the pic), which takes some of the sting out of the Q4 result. </p><p>AUD/USD is a little lower on the data releases:</p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australian Wages data Q4 2022: +0.8% q/q (vs. expected +1%)22/02/2023 00:30:10<p>Australian Q4 2022 Wage Price Index</p><p>+0.8% q/q</p><ul><li>expected 1%, prior 1%</li></ul><p>+3.3% y/y</p><ul><li>expected +3.5%, prior +3.1%</li></ul><p>The lower-than-expected result will be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, who are fearful of a wage-price inflation spiral higher. The bank will hike its cash rate on March 7 regardless. The rate is deeply negative and the Bank is way behind in its race to control <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/" class="terms__main-term" id="ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa" target="_blank">inflation</a>. </p><p>The cash rate is not the only thing deeply negative. With y/y CPI at 7.8% (or 8.4% if you prefer the latest monthly result) and wage growth at +3.3% real wages are also negative. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Australian Wages data Q4 2022: +0.8% q/q (vs. expected +1%)22/02/2023 00:30:10<p>Australian Q4 2022 Wage Price Index</p><p>% q.q</p><ul><li>expected 1%, prior 1%</li></ul><p>more to come </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan Services Producer Price Index (Jan.) +1.6% y/y (expected +1.5%)21/02/2023 23:54:22<p>Japan Services Producer Price Index (January) +1.6% y/y </p><ul><li>expected +1.5%, prior +1.5%</li></ul><p>For the m/m -0.3%</p><ul><li>prior +0.1%</li></ul><p>Not generally too much of a yen mover. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Westpac's Australian Leading Index is "stuck in negative territory"21/02/2023 23:45:47<p>Another dour reading from the leading index. </p><p>WPAC:</p><ul><li>The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, was -1.04% in January, largely unchanged on the -1.09% read in December.</li><li>The growth rate in the Leading Index held at a weak –1.04%.</li><li>This points to below trend growth through most of 2023.</li><li>The growth rate has now been negative for six consecutive months.</li><li>The Index is indicating that the economy’s growth rate will remain below trend through most of 2023 – consistent with Westpac’s forecast.</li><li>Global factors, monetary policy and, recently, hours worked have weighed heavily on the Index.</li></ul><p>Still to come from Australia later:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/australian-wages-data-due-today-likely-to-keep-the-pressure-on-rba-20230221/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Australian wages data due today, likely to keep the pressure on RBA</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Goldman Sachs $100 / barrel oil forecast is getting trotted out again21/02/2023 23:28:51<p>I seem to be posting the 'Goldman Sachs forecast $100 oil' around once a week or so. </p><p>This, for example from February 5:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/goldman-sachs-says-oil-demand-to-outstrip-supply-later-in-2023-a-serious-problem-in-2024-20230205/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Oil will rise back above $100 a barrel this year</a></li></ul><p>They're at it again, same dollar number forecast. Not that there is anything wrong with that, just don't treat it as new news. </p><p>In a nutshell, crude prices should rise to $100/bbl by the end of the year due to </p><ul><li>underinvestment </li><li>shale constraints </li><li>OPEC discipline </li><li>and strong Chinese demand</li></ul><p>From the horse's mouth, GS say $100 by the end of the year is on the radar:</p><ul><li>“as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand”</li></ul><p>---</p><p>Its been heavy going for the stuff:</p><p>While the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-close-near-lows-20230221/" target="_blank" rel="follow">slide </a>for equities on Tuesday had fingers pointing at strong economic data likely to incite further Federal Reserve rate hikes the moribund oil price has fingers pointing at a weaker economy weighing on demand. Go figure. </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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Japan Reuters Tankan (February): Manufacturing index -5 (prior -6)21/02/2023 23:02:21<p>The non-Manufacturing index +17, falling back for a second month (was at +25 in December 2022, a 3 year high)</p><ul><li>prior +20</li></ul><p>The monthly Reuters <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/t/tankan/" class="terms__main-term" id="df7cc29b-c201-4e17-ae04-4b4dbd811390" target="_blank">Tankan</a> tracks the Bank of Japan's (<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/b/boj/" class="terms__secondary-term" id="c1f60108-4283-4827-911e-95f01607c737" target="_blank">BOJ</a>) tankan quarterly survey.</p><p>More:</p><ul><li>Many firms also complained about rises in energy and commodity prices and weakness of the yen, both factors that have driven up import bills, increasing the cost of doing business, the poll showed. "We have not been able to transfer rising costs of materials, gas and electricity to our customers. On top of that, wages are rising, all of which squeezes the business environment," a manager of a metal processing firm wrote in the survey. </li><li>"The environment surrounding logistics and manufacturing remains severe due to coronavirus, chip shortages, yen weakness, price rises in raw materials, the Ukraine crisis and shortages of fuel and crops." </li></ul><p>---</p><p>This is not painting a picture of a booming economy is it? the Bank of Japan may be under pressure to cut back on accommodative policy, but economic indicators are not supporting such a move. </p><p>We'll hear from the new incoming BOJ Governor on Friday:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/incoming-boj-governor-ueda-speaks-this-week-for-the-first-time-since-his-nomination-20230220/" target="_blank" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">Incoming BOJ Governor Ueda speaks this week for the first time since his nomination</a></li></ul> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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JPMorgan’s Kolanovic says thinks could see more downward pressure on equities21/02/2023 22:54:28<p>A quickie video interview with JP Morgan’s Kolanovic following the down day for US equities:</p><ul><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/stocks-close-near-lows-20230221/" rel="follow" target="_self" class="article-link vertical-align-baseline">Stocks close near lows</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/forexlive-americas-fx-news-wrap-strong-data-keeps-the-us-dollar-bid-canadian-cpi-slips-20230221/" rel="follow" target="_self" class="article-link vertical-align-baseline">Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Strong data keeps the US dollar bid, Canadian CPI slips</a></li></ul><p>Kolanovic (paraphrased):</p><ul><li>as yields rise multiples tend to go down., you will have moves out of equities into bonds</li><li>even if bond yields pull back there is still a very big gap in what equities are pricing</li></ul><p>(ps if the embed is not working, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/02/21/you-could-see-5-percent-more-downward-pressure-on-the-markets-says-jpms-kolanovic.html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">link here</a> for 2 minute video) </p> This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
Forex News - FXStreet
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EUR/USD trims gains near 1.0650 ahead of FOMC Minutes, Fed vs. ECB divergence is in focus22/02/2023 05:43:34EUR/USD extends pullback from intraday high to 1.0650 during the first positive day in three amid the early Wednesday. That said, The Euro pair’s init
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Applied materials is in the semiconductor sweet spot22/02/2023 05:28:13Applied Materials reported better than expected results and guidance, shares steady. The company is in the sweet spot regarding trends in the semicond
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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Retreats towards one-week-old support near 0.925022/02/2023 05:15:36USD/CHF seesaws around 0.9265 as it consolidates the previous day’s gains with mild losses heading into Wednesday’s European session. In doing so, the
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US stock indices: S&P 500, Nasdaq technical outlook [Video]22/02/2023 05:07:34Welcome back to Joeli's trade setup and alerts for the US Major Stock Indices Wednesday, 22 Feb 2023. In this video, we examine the current trend in t
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NVDA pullback in expanded flat Elliott Wave structure [Video]22/02/2023 05:00:44Since bottoming on October 13, 2022 at 108.16, the stock has so far rallied in 3 swing. The rally from there is proposed to be unfolding as a nest whe
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USD/TRY eases to $18.80 amid sluggish markets ahead of FOMC Minutes, CBRT22/02/2023 04:52:49USD/TRY slides to $18.81, retreating from the all-time high marked the previous day, as the US Dollar eases ahead of the key Federal Open Market Commi
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GBP/USD stabilizes above 1.2100 as risk-on impulse rebounds, FOMC minutes eyed22/02/2023 04:37:32The GBP/USD pair is building the auction platform above the round-level support of 1.2100 in the Asian session. The Cable is getting some strength as
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USD/CAD Price Analysis: Bulls and bears jostle below 1.3555 hurdle22/02/2023 04:25:42USD/CAD grinds near a 1.5-month high during early Wednesday, after crossing the key moving average and resistance line the previous day. That said, th
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD dribbles within $30 range as Fed Minutes loom22/02/2023 03:55:07Gold price (XAU/USD) probes two-day downtrend as it treads water around $1,835 during early Wednesday. In doing so, the bright metal remains inside th
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USD/INR Price News: Upside looks favored amid overnight jump in US yields22/02/2023 03:52:04The USD/INR pair is attempting to surpass the immediate resistance of 82.80 in the Asian session. The asset is expected to yet discount the impact of
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EUR/USD Price Analysis: Extends recovery above 1.0660 as investors’ risk-taking capacity improves22/02/2023 03:11:50The EUR/USD pair has sensed a buying interest after dropping to near 1.0640 in the Asian session. The major currency pair has rebounded as the risk ap
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AUD/USD bears approach 0.6800 amid dicey markets ahead of Fed Minutes22/02/2023 02:50:40AUD/USD drops 0.6835 as it stays on the bear’s radar for the second consecutive day ahead of the all-important Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC)
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USD/JPY Price Analysis: Retreats towards 134.00 key support22/02/2023 02:34:19USD/JPY bulls take a breather as the quote drops to 134.70 while printing the mild losses, the first in four days, during early Wednesday. In doing so
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NZD/USD pares RBNZ-led gains above 0.6170 support confluence as Governor Orr utters recession22/02/2023 02:17:19NZD/USD retreats to 0.6225 as it consolidates the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) inspired gains on Governor Adrian Orr’s unimpressive presser duri
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RBNZ’s Orr: We are still predicting a recession over a 9-12 month period22/02/2023 02:10:32Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr is speaking at the February post-monetary policy meeting press conference this Wednesday, stick
Forex News - Investing
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Dollar clings to modest gains as strong U.S. data lends support22/02/2023 05:17:17
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Rouble weakens on sanctions fears as Putin issues nuclear warning21/02/2023 22:40:57
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Pound Soars as Traders Amp Up Rate Hike Bets After Strong UK PMI21/02/2023 19:18:32
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Russian rouble weakens ahead of Putin address to parliament21/02/2023 15:56:26
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Dollar edges lower; on course for first monthly gain since September20/02/2023 16:14:09
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Asia FX moves little, dollar steady as Fed-heavy week looms20/02/2023 14:29:06
Forex News - GCI
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Crude Oil: Oil trading higher ahead of Baker Hughes weekly rig count data21/08/2020 02:38:15Crude Oil Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.16% against the USD and closed at USD42.82 per barrel, following major oil producers’ commitments to hold back output. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair … Continue reading →
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Silver; White metal trading on a weaker footing this morning21/08/2020 02:38:09Silver Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 2.11% against the USD and closed at USD27.64 per ounce. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 27.6, with silver trading 0.14% lower against the … Continue reading →
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Gold: Yellow metal reverses it gains in the Asian session21/08/2020 02:38:04Gold Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at USD1956.6. per ounce, as weak US jobs data stoked worries about slow economic recovery. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair … Continue reading →
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AUD/USD: Australia’s retail sales climbed in July21/08/2020 02:37:59AUDUSD Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 0.7199. LME Copper prices declined 1.1% or $72.5/MT to $6,594.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.5% or $9.0/MT to $ ,755.5/MT. In the … Continue reading →
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USD/CAD: Loonie trading on a stronger footing this morning21/08/2020 02:37:54USDCAD Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.24% against the CAD and closed at 1.3179. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3168, with the USD trading 0.08% lower against the … Continue reading →
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USD/CHF: Switzerland’s trade surplus widened in July21/08/2020 02:37:48USDCHF Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.80% against the CHF and closed at 0.9072. In economic news, Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF3.4 billion in July, compared to a revised surplus of CHF3.2 billion … Continue reading →
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USD/JPY: Japanese Yen trading higher in the morning session21/08/2020 02:37:43USDJPY Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.27% against the JPY and closed at 105.74. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 105.67, with the USD trading 0.07% lower against the … Continue reading →
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GBP/USD: British Pound extends its gains in the Asian session21/08/2020 02:37:38GBPUSD Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.83% against the USD and closed at 1.3221. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3231, with the GBP trading 0.08% higher against the … Continue reading →
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EUR/USD: Eurozone’s construction output rose in June21/08/2020 02:37:32EURUSD Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.15% against the USD and closed at 1.1867. On the macro front, Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted construction output advanced 4.0% on a monthly basis in June, compared to a … Continue reading →
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Crude Oil: Oil trading on a weaker footing this morning20/08/2020 01:08:48Crude Oil Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.16% against the USD and closed at USD42.75 per barrel, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that crude oil inventories fell by 1.6 million barrels to … Continue reading →
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Silver: White metal trading higher in the Asian session20/08/2020 01:08:44Silver Movement For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver declined 3.63% against the USD and closed at USD27.07 per ounce, tracking losses in gold prices. In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 27.12, with silver … Continue reading →
Forex News - DailyForex
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Forex Today: RBA Minutes Confirm Coming Rate Hikes Likely - 21 February 202321/02/2023 07:56:34RBA Notes Cash Rate Remains Relatively Low; Stocks Lower, US Dollar Higher; US Treasury Yields Climb
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Forex Today: Fed Members Debate 50bps Hike - 20 February 202320/02/2023 08:00:49Two FOMC Members Suggest Stronger Hike; Yen Awaits Ueda Testimony; Aussie Opens Week Stronger
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Forex Today: Fed Members Debate 50bps Hike20/02/2023 08:00:49Two FOMC Members Suggest Stronger Hike; Yen Awaits Ueda Testimony; Aussie Opens Week Stronger
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Forex Today: Stocks, US Dollar Firmer16/02/2023 09:23:17Strong US Retail Sales; UK Inflation Drops; Australian Unemployment Worsens
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US Annualized Inflation Falls by Only 0.1%15/02/2023 10:53:51Annualized inflation in the US has fallen for the seventh consecutive month in January to 6.4%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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Forex Today: Higher Than Expected US Inflation Sends Dollar Higher, Stocks Lower15/02/2023 07:57:48US CPI Declines to Only 6.4%; Fed’s Williams Says “Work Not Yet Done”; US Dollar Firm; Stock Markets Mostly Lower in Asian Session.
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Forex Today: US Dollar Continues to Climb13/02/2023 07:41:49US Dollar Near 5-Week High on Expected Rate Hikes; Markets Nervous About US CPI Data; Stock Markets Mostly Lower in Asian Session
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Forex Today: FOMC’s Williams Indicates Terminal Rate of 5.1% Likely09/02/2023 08:09:05Hawkish Comments from Fed Members Boost Rate Expectations; US Treasury Yields Remain High and Rising; Stock Markets Recover in Asian Session.
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Forex Today: Stocks Rally on Powell Inflation Decline Remarks08/02/2023 07:08:17Powell Sees Inflation Lowering, But Open to More Hikes; Stocks Rally, NASDAQ 100 Makes 4-Month High Close
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The Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Interest Rates to 3.35%07/02/2023 15:30:01RBA makes a hawkish rate hike.
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Forex Today: RBA Hikes Rates, Sees “Further Increases”07/02/2023 06:53:01Aussie Gains on RBA Hawkish Tilt; Stocks Firmer Ahead of Powell Speaking.
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Forex Today: Yen Falls on Amamiya Governorship Rumour06/02/2023 06:51:33Yen Tumbles on Report Dove Amamiya to be BoJ Governor; Stocks Lower as Sentiment Persists; RBA Expected to Hike Rates
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United States Slows Rate Rises to 0.25%02/02/2023 12:57:00The FED raised its interest rate by 0.25% yesterday, leaving benchmark borrowing costs at 4.75%, in what was the smallest rate rise since March 2022.
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Forex Today: Powell Triggers Bullish Sentiment02/02/2023 08:19:37FOMC Hikes by 0.25%; FOMC Statement Slightly Hawkish; Powell Talks Down US Dollar in Presser; S&P 500 Golden Cross; Gold, Euro Reach Highs; ECB, BoE 0.50% Hikes Expected Today.
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Forex Today: Fed Expected to Hike by 0.25% Today01/02/2023 07:00:23Markets Await FOMC and Expected Rate Rise; Stock Markets Higher; US Dollar Consolidates.
Forex News - OFX
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Australian dollar stabilises below US$0.6922/02/2023 00:00:00AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the US dollar. The AUD/USD pair comes under some renewed selling pressure on Tuesday and reverses a major part of the previous day's positive move. The pair remains depressed below the US$0.6900 mark through the first half of the European session. Market sentiment remains fragile amid growing worries about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs which are also tempering investors' appetite for riskier assets of which the Australian is one. It was widely anticipated that Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe would be advocating for more interest rate hikes as Australian inflation is critically stubborn. The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) has refreshed its multi-decade of 7.8% and is showing no signs of softening ahead in spite of the fact that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) has been already pushed to 3.35%. The message from the RBA minutes was clear that more interest rates are warranted as strong consumer demand is not allowing Australian inflation to soften from its peak. According to the RBA minutes, policymakers also considered the option of 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike considering the persistence of inflation. Looking ahead today on the data front and the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarterly Wage Price Index which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation, when businesses pay more for labour the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. We will also see the release of the quarterly Construction Work Done. It's an important gauge of the construction industry, which has a sizable impact on overall employment and spending and gives insight into the GDP data which is released about a week later. On Thursday RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock is due to testify before the Parliamentary Joint Committee on Corporations and Financial Services, in Sydney. She's responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members who decide where to set the nation's key interest rates on matters relating to economics, and her public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts. Key Movers Business activity in the US services sector expanded in early February following January's contraction with S&P Global Services PMI rising to 50.5 from 46.8 in January. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 47.2. Additionally, the Manufacturing PMI edged higher to 47.8 from 46.9, compared to analysts' estimate of 47.3, and the Composite PMI improved to 50.2 from 46.8. As a result, the US dollar gathered strength against its rivals with the initial reaction and the US Dollar Index was last seen rising 0.35% on the day at 104.22. In other news, U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom. The report from the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday also showed the smallest increase in annual house prices since 2012, which should help to improve affordability. It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns the corner. The housing market has been the biggest casualty of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening. Residential investment has contracted for seven straight quarters, the longest such stretch since 2009. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to an average of 6.32% last week from 6.12% the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. The second straight weekly increase reflected a spike in U.S. Treasury yields. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6750 - 0.6950 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.7550 - 1.7750 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9150 - 0.9350 ▼
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Aussie dollar rallies above 69 US cents21/02/2023 00:00:00AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. Overnight the AUDUSD pair managed to stage a recovery after dropping to a new YTD low at US$0.6811, which consequently cracked the 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). However, the AUDUSD pair reclaimed the 0.6900 figure and is trading at 0.6919, above its opening price by 0.53%. Key drivers for the Aussie dollar some optimism over a potential recovery in China and support to Copper prices benefited the resources-linked Australian dollar. In addition, a subdued US dollar price action turns is a key factor acting as a tailwind for the AUDUSD pair. The fundamental backdrop still seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful upside. Looking ahead today and it's quite a busy schedule. We will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. We will also see the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting minutes. A detailed record of the RBA board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. Looking ahead for the rest of the week and tomorrow the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarterly Wage Price Index which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation, when businesses pay more for labour, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Key Movers There were no scheduled releases in the US overnight as they celebrated Presidents' Day or officially Washington's Birthday. Last week the bets were reaffirmed by the US CPI and PPI data, which showed that inflation isn't coming down quite as fast as hoped. Moreover, several FOMC officials recently stressed the need to keep lifting rates gradually to fully gain control of inflation. The markets seem convinced that the US central bank will stick to its hawkish stance and have been pricing in at least a 25 bps lift-off at the next two FOMC meetings in March and May. The prospects for further policy tightening by the Fed continue to act as a tailwind for the US dollar. The Great British pound corrected from the low 1.19s on Friday, denting the bear's dominance ahead of a US holiday on Monday as traders squared up into the long weekend. At the time of writing, GBPUSD is trading near 1.2050 and remains in consolidation between the day's low of 1.2014 and 1.2056. Looking ahead in the UK this week the PMI for February is the pick of the UK data calendar tomorrow. We forecast a modest improvement to 49.2. This may not be enough to lift GBPUSD with investors instead bracing for the FOMC minutes and US PCE inflation. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6800 - 0.7000 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.7300 - 1.7500 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1150 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9200 - 0.9400 ▲
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Aussie dollar trades below 69 US cents20/02/2023 00:00:00AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. The Australian dollar finished the week on a lower note, after hitting a daily high of 0.6884. The AUD/USD pair remains under heavy selling pressure for the third successive day and drops to its lowest level since January 6 heading into the North American session on Friday. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD exchanges hands at 0.6859. Spot prices seem poised to weaken further below the 0.6800 round-figure mark and accelerate the fall toward the next relevant support near the 0.6740-0.6735 region. This is followed by the 100-day SMA, currently around the 0.6715-0.6710 zone, which if broken decisively should set the stage for a further near-term depreciating move for the AUD/USD pair. Looking ahead this week and on Monday there are no scheduled releases. On Tuesday we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) a survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. We will also see the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. A detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates. On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the quarterly Wage Price Index which is a leading indicator of consumer inflation, when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Key Movers The key headlines on Friday in the UK the GBP/USD is staging a recovery after diving to fresh February lows around 1.1914 in the mid-North American session, bolstered by overall US Dollar (USD) weakness. The UK Retail Sales arrived at 0.5% over the month in January vs. -0.3% expected and -1.2% previous. The Core Retail Sales, stripping the auto motor fuel sales, rose by 0.4% MoM vs. 0% expected and -1.4% previous. On an annualized basis, the UK Retail Sales tumbled 5.1% in January versus -5.5% expected and -6.1% prior while the Core Retail Sales slumped 5.3% in the reported month versus -5.3% expectations and -6.5% previous. Data from both sides of the Atlantic kept the GBP/USD pressured, which finally dropped below the 200-day EMA. A UK inflation report on Tuesday contributed to speculations that the Bank of England (BoE) would not hike rates as aggressively as expected. That, alongside softer than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January in the US, which exceeded estimates by bank analysts, incremented the likelihood of further tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). On the downside, GBP/USD could stretch lower toward 1.1900 (psychological level) and 1.1850 (static level) once 1.1930 support fails. The GBP/USD pair is slightly higher this morning currently trading at 1.2008. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6750 - 0.6950 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6300 - 0.6500 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.7350 - 1.7550 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.1050 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9150 - 0.9350 ▼
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AUD plumbs new 2023 low following uptick in US inflation17/02/2023 00:00:00AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar plumbed fresh 2023 lows through trade on Thursday following weaker than anticipated domestic employment data and stronger than anticipated US PPI inflation data. Employment growth slowed in January and the unemployment rate lifted to 3.7%. The second consecutive miss in monthly jobs growth and the marginal uptick in unemployment can likely be explained by seasonal adjustments, however the softer print has raised some concerns the steam is now running out of the labour market. The AUD and domestic rates fell in the wake of the data update setting the trend for the rest of the day. While traditionally considered a second tier data set, US PPI inflation is typically ignored with markets preferring to focus on the traditional Consumer Price Index, however January saw both headline and core PPI figures jump significantly, continuing the surprise reversal in trend across US macroeconomic data points. The upswing in producer prices further cemented expectations the path toward the Fed’s inflation target of 2% could be a long and drawn out one. US yields and rates pushed higher following the data update and the AUD fell to intraday lows at US$0.6840. There appears little sign the Fed will pause or slow the pace of rates hikes through the next two months with the likelihood of a third hike now being priced into near term yield curves. The AUD managed to claw back some ground through the latter part of the overnight session yet remains below US$0.69 on open this morning. With a largely empty macro ticket closing out the week our attentions turn to Fed speakers for direction. Key Movers The US dollar advanced through trade on Thursday, buoyed by stronger than anticipated inflation across Producer Prices. While traditionally ignored, January’s upswing in PPI was too large to dismiss and further underpins the recent shift in narrative surrounding inflation and central bank policy. The USD tracked downward through January yet a series of stronger than anticipated domestic data sets through February has since raised questions as to the timing of any pause in Fed policy. Inflation pressures, while easing, remain stickier than first thought while consumer activity appears seemingly impervious to the unprecedented string of rate hikes. With the path toward the Fed 2% inflation target lengthening by the day, momentum is again firmly behind the US dollar. With global rates higher the USD pushed toward 134.50 against the Japanese yen, while the euro slipped toward 1.0650, and the GBP poked its nose below 1.20. With little of note on today’s ticket our attentions remain with Fed commentators for direction into the weekly close. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6830 - 0.7000 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6380 - 0.6480 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.7280 - 1.7520 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1020 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9200 - 0.9300 ▲
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AUD closes in on new yearly low16/02/2023 00:00:00AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar fell through trade on Wednesday giving up US$0.69 amid souring risk sentiment and a broadly stronger US dollar. Having opened near US$0.70 the AUD fell steadily through the domestic session as risk demand faltered and investors appeared reluctant in extending gains amid a backdrop of higher global rates and near-term monetary policy uncertainty. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe spoke at a senate hearing and offered little new guidance, instead reiterating the banks hawkish commitment to controlling inflation. With little else of note on the domestic ticket attentions turned to the keenly anticipated US retail sales data update. Consumer spending jumped 3% in January, suggesting consumer demand in the US remains strong. The upturn in activity surpassed consensus estimates and helped drive GDP expectations, bond yields and rate estimates higher. Sustained strength across the labour market, key services and consumer demand have elevated expectations for Fed policy as market adjust forecasts expecting rates to remain elevated for longer. The AUD slid below US$0.69 touching intraday lows south of US$0.6870 before finding support. Down 1.5% on the day the AUD has found some backing and opens this morning right on US$0.69. Our attentions turn now to local labour market data where we anticipate steady jobs growth and an unemployment rate of 3.5%. A robust read will underpin expectations for more hawkish RBA policy while any signs of fragility could see the currency test year to date lows and break toward US$0.6850. Key Movers The US dollar outpaced all majors through trade on Wednesday elevated by stronger than anticipated domestic data and a souring in risk demand. US retail sales lurched upward in January surpassing consensus estimates and defying suggestions consumer sentiment is wavering. Retail spending jumped 3% while housing data improved and manufacturing tracked higher. The balance of stronger data has prompted analyst to lift US GDP expectations, fueling an uptick in bond yields and rates. The narrative has shifted and there is now a broadly held expectation interest rates will remain elevated for longer. 2 and 10 year yields rose forcing a downturn across key equity indices and risk assets. The negative risk backdrop and higher global rates hurt commodity currencies and the Yen. The JPY gave up more ground to the USD as the worlds base currency pushed through 134 JPY. The Euro slipped below US$1.07 while the GBP was one of the days worst performers down 1.4% on the day. UK CPI inflation fell more than markets anticipated but still remains shockingly high at 10.1% While there is a expectation The Bank of England will need to maintain interest rate pressure in order to control inflation through the medium term UK yields fell on the day, widening the yield differential and exacerbating the GBP downturn. Having given up US$1.21 and US$1.2050 the GPB found support on moves below 1.20 and opens this morning marginally above 1.2025. With little of note on today’s macroeconomic ticket our attentions turn to commentary from key Fed policy makers. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6830 - 0.7000 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6430 - 0.6520 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.7320 - 1.7580 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0950 - 1.1050 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.9180 - 0.9320 ▼
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AUD steady as market reaction to US inflation update muted15/02/2023 00:00:00AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar opens this morning marginally higher as investors move beyond the much-anticipated US CPI inflation update and toward commentary from RBA governor Lowe as he addresses a senate committee on Monetary Policy. The AUD maintained a narrow trading handle through the domestic session bouncing between US$0.6950 and US$0.6980 as investors looked to sideline major bets until after the US CPI inflation data was released. The monthly release showed both headline and core measures of inflation had moderated in line with consensus estimates. The AUD lurched higher as investors hoped the sustained decline in price pressures might prompt a correction in Fed monetary policy expectations, however, closer analysis showed inflation remains sticky and even though leading indicators suggest weaker inflation ahead prices are taking much too long to moderate. Fed commentators speaking after the data seemed content in seeing pressures ease but reiterated the need to raise rates higher than first expected. Tighter fed policy expectations drove the USD and US rates higher and forced the AUD toward intraday lows at US$0.6930. Having found support the AUD worked to claw back losses and opens this morning slightly above its pre-data level buying US$0.6991. Attentions turn now to RBA Governor Lowe as he addresses a senate hearing on Monetary Policy. Given last week’s hawkish RBA surprise and rising peak interest rate estimates we are keenly attuned to any forward guidance that will help shape rate expectations. Key Movers Price action across major currencies was largely subdued with most majors moving within the 0.2% range leading into and out of much anticipated US inflation data. Prices moderated in line with consensus estimates while Fed commentators reiterated the need for steady and consistent monetary policy. Despite moderating inflation pressures remain too high and the pace of disinflation to slow for key policy makers. Having tempered monetary policy expectations through January markets are now resigned to the reality of more near-term rate hikes. With two additional Fed rate hikes now priced in the USD index edged upward on the day led by gains won against the JPY while the euro and the GBP offered little to excite investors. In other news, UK labour market data showed wage growth remains strong as labour market conditions continue to tighten. Fears of a wage-price as wages attempt to keep up with inflation will likely trouble the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee as it battles to stave off recession while driving down persistent price pressures. Our attentions turn now to UK CPI data and US retail sales. We anticipate an uptick in spending through January as consumers that delayed purchases leading into the holidays look to take advantage of post-holiday sales. Robust consumer activity will only affirm the Fed’s commitment to higher rates and likely underpin recent USD gains. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6880 - 0.7020 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6420 - 0.6520 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.7280 - 1.7580 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0940 - 1.1080 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.9250 - 0.9350 ▲
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