At 03:00 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected that the regulator will adjust the figure from 4.25% to 4.75%. The accompanying statement and subsequent press conference may contain an assessment of the current situation and immediate economic prospects in the face of geopolitical tensions and hints at further actions by the financial authorities. Read more

At 23:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish January data on the trade balance – an indicator that consolidates the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. In January, the deficit is expected to increase from –14.460M New Zealand dollars to –14.887M New Zealand dollars YoY and from –0.475M New Zealand dollars to –1.405M New Zealand dollars MoM. Implementation of the forecast is likely to put pressure on the positions of the national currency. Read more

At 17:00 (GMT+2), January data on sales in the US secondary housing market will be released. The indicator captures the number of existing residential buildings for which deals were made during the past month and is one of the most important indicators of the national construction market. The figure is expected to rise from 4.02M to 4.10M homes. Implementation of the forecast may support the US national currency. Read more

At 16:45 (GMT+2), the February data on business activity indices in the US manufacturing and services sector will be released. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing industry and the service sector and are calculated based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and the prospects for its further development. It is expected that the index in the manufacturing sector will increase from 46.9 points to 47.3 points and for the service sector – from 46.8 points to... Read more

At 15:30 (GMT+2), January data on the consumer price index in Canada will be released. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country and determines the change in retail prices for a certain "basket" of goods and services (food, transport, utilities, healthcare, etc.), and it also has a significant impact on the decisions of the authorities on monetary policy. The index is expected to fall from 6.3% to 6.1% YoY, and rise from –0.6% to 0.7% MoM, while the core value will correct from –0.6% to –0.1% MoM and from 5.4% to 5.5% YoY. Read more

At 15:30 (GMT+2), December retail sales data will be released in Canada. The indicator captures the volume of all goods sold by retailers based on a sample of retail stores of various types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and significantly impacts the gross domestic product. The indicator is expected to correct from –0.1% to 0.5% in December, and the core value from –0.6% to –0.1%. Implementation of the forecast may support the quotes of the Canadian currency. Read more

At 13:00 (GMT+2), in the UK will be published data on the index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI). The indicator is calculated based on a survey of representatives of leading British enterprises and is an important indicator of the state of business in the country. The continuation of the negative dynamics from –17.0 points to –14.0 points is predicted, which, in turn, will act as a catalyst for the pound's decline. Read more

At 12:00 (GMT+2), the February index of current economic conditions in Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the prevailing mood among financial analysts in Germany, and the subject of the study is the most important indicators: inflation, interest rates, stock indices, exchange rates, and oil prices. The indicator is expected to slow down the negative dynamics from –58.6 points to –50.0 points, which may still pressure the euro quotes. Read more

At 11:00 (GMT+2), February data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU countries will be released. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing industry and the service sector and are calculated based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and the prospects for its further development. It is expected that the index in the manufacturing sector will rise from 48.8 points to 49.3 points and in the service sector – from 50.8... Read more

At 10:30 (GMT+2), the February data on business activity indices in Germany's manufacturing and service sectors will be released. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries and are calculated based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and the prospects for its further development. It is expected that the index in the manufacturing sector will grow from 47.3 points to 47.8 points and in the service sector – from 50.7 points to 51.0... Read more

At 09:00 (GMT+2), the January data on the trade balance in Switzerland will be published. This indicator captures the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. Its increase is a positive factor for the Swiss currency. If the growth of the indicator from the current 2.827B francs continues, this may support the national currency of Switzerland. Read more

At 17:00 (GMT+2), February data on the consumer confidence index in the euro area will be published. The indicator is calculated based on a survey of 2.3K households that assesses the economic prospects. It is a leading indicator for consumer spending: high readings indicate consumer optimism and vice versa. The negative dynamics are forecast to continue from –20.9 points to –18.3 points, likely to pressure the positions of the single European currency. Read more

At 09:00 (GMT+2), the January data on the German PPI will be published. The indicator is one of the most important indicators of inflation in the economy since it measures the price change for goods sold by manufacturers at the wholesale level. It is expected that the value will correct from the current 21.6% to 20.8% YoY, and it will accelerate the negative dynamics from –0.4% to –1.2% MoM, which may contribute to the downward dynamics of the euro quotes. Read more

At 20:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report captures the change in the number of oil production capacities in the US. The last time the number of towers rose to 609 pieces, the continuation of this trend may put pressure on the quotes of "black gold." Read more

At 09:00 (GMT+2), the January data on the German Producer Price Index will be published. The indicator is one of the most important indicators of inflation in the economy. It measures the change in prices of goods sold by manufacturers at the wholesale level. It is expected that the value will correct from the current 21.6% to 16.4% YoY and accelerate the negative dynamics from –0.4% to –1.6% MoM, which may contribute to the downward dynamics of the euro quotes. Read more

<p>With US growth seemingly not abating, <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/i/inflation/" class="terms__main-term" id="ad51a5a2-1afc-4f42-9e62-ea6faf6f90fa" target="_blank">inflation</a> still a concern, and the US dollar coming off a more than 50% correction adding to potential inflationary forces, does the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/u/us-dollar/" class="terms__secondary-term" id="fddda8f4-d5f8-4ee4-8e34-3760ed062f3c" target="_blank">US dollar</a> have to continue the move back higher to get things back in balance?</p><p>It makes sense and indeed the dollar has been stepping higher.</p><p>Looking at the daily chart of the DXY (dollar index), it bottomed earlier this month (February 2) at 100.82. The DXY price traded for most of January, above and below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2021 low at 101.994. Sellers had their shot below the 50% retracement but momentum could not be sustained. The price has been moving back higher since bottoming on February 2. </p><p>The fundamental catalyst for the move back higher? </p><p>The US jobs report which saw a gain of 517K jobs and the unemployment rate which fell to 3.4% - the lowest level since 1969. .</p><p>The move higher in the DXY was also helped by the move higher in rates. Looking at the 10 year yield chart below, it too bottomed on February 2nd. Technically, the low on that day dipped below the 200 day MA for the first time since December 2021, but could not gather downside momentum. </p><p>The US jobs report also helped to put the kibosh on that yield lower idea, and the 10 year yield has moved up some 62 basis points since that low. </p><p>So with yields and the dollar moving higher, what would hurt the DXY in the short term?</p><p>Looking at the hourly chart below, technically the 103.767 to 103.837 area has been home to recent lows (see red circles 8 - 11). The price also bottomed against that level in the early NY session. Going back farther, it was a swing defining area either as support or resistance. </p><p>That swing area between 103.768 and 103.837 is now close support going forward. </p><p>Stay above keeps the buyers in firm control. Move below it - followed closely by the rising 200 hour MA (green line) currently at 103.687 - would throw cold water on the bullish technical bias (at least in the short term). </p><p>Until then, however, the story for a higher dollar from a technical and fundamental perspective remains intact. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>With US growth seemingly not abating, inflation still a concern, and the US dollar coming off a more than 50% correction potentially adding to potential inflationary forces, does the dollar have to move back higher to get things back in balance?</p><p>It makes sense and indeed the dollar has been stepping higher.</p><p>Looking at the daily chart of the DXY (dollar index), it bottomed earlier this month (February 2) at 100.82. The DXY price traded for most of January, above and below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the January 2021 low at 101.994. Sellers had their shot below the 50% retracement but momentum could not be sustained. </p><p>The fundamental catalyst for the move back higher? </p><p>The US jobs report which saw a gain of 517K jobs and the unemployment fall to 3.4%.</p><p>The move higher in the DXY was also helped by the move higher in rates. Looking at the 10 year yield chart below, it too bottomed on February 2nd. Technically, the low on that day dipped below the 200 day MA for the first time since December 2021, but could not gather downside momentum. The US jobs report also helped to put the kibosh on that yield lower idea, and the 10 year yield has moved up some 62 basis points since then. </p><p>So with yields and the dollar moving higher, what would hurt the DXY in the short term?</p><p>Looking at the hourly chart below, technically the 103.767 to 103.837 area has been home to recent lows (see red circles 8 - 11). The price also bottomed against that level in the early NY session. Going back farther, it was a swing defining area either as support or resistance. </p><p>That swing area between 103.768 and 103.837 is now close support going forward. </p><p>Stay above keeps the buyers in firm control. Move below it - followed closely by the rising 200 hour MA (green line) currently at 103.687 - would throw cold water on the bullish technical bias (at least in the short term). </p><p>Until then, however, the story for a higher dollar from a technical and fundamental perspective remains intact. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The inflation data out of Canada was weaker than expectations helping to push the CAD lower (the USDCAD higher. Now with US yields moving higher (and stocks getting hammered), the USD is finding a bid, forcing the USDCAD higher in the process.</p><p>Technically, the pair is also getting a boost after running away (higher) from a pair of key technical levels on the daily chart:</p><ol><li>The price moved above the 100 day MA at 1.35124 (See blue line on the chart above),</li><li>The price moved above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October high</li></ol><p>That level is now a risk defining level for the pair. Stay above is more bullish. Move back below and there could be disappointment on the failed break.</p><p>Looking at the US debt market:</p><ul><li>2 year 4.731%, up 8 bps</li><li>10 year 3.954%, up 11.2 bps</li><li>30 year 3.976%, up 10.5 bps</li></ul><p>The US stock indices are showing:</p><ul><li>Dow -689 points or -2.04%</li><li>S&P -82.77 points or -2.03%</li><li>Nasdaq -282 points or -2.39%</li></ul> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USDCHF has had its shares of ups and downs today, but:</p><ul><li>The 200 hour moving average based the pair on one of the downs (green line) and the price extended higher.</li></ul><p>On the topside,</p><ul><li>The pair moved above the broken 38.2% and recent swing area between 0.9259 and 0.9262 (see green numbers circles), but</li><li>Found sellers near the low of a swing area ceiling between 0.9278 and 0.9290 (see red numbers circles)</li></ul><p>The high price stalled at 0.92815</p><p>The price is currently trading at 0.9262. That is back back down near the swing area between 0.9259 and 0.9262 along with the 38.2% retracement at 0.9256. </p><p>Sellers from above would want to see that area broken, followed by the 100 hour MA at 0.92506 to give more control back to the sellers. </p><p>Conversely, if this area can hold right here, the hope would be for another run to the topside, and the high of the swing area above at 0.92904.</p><p>Key area for both buyers and sellers intraday.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/g/gbp-jpy/" class="terms__main-term" id="106e2726-79b2-46c0-bc1f-f8a5fd3fa985" target="_blank">GBPJPY</a> is one of the bigger movers today. The pair is up 1.10% on the day.</p><p>That move to the upside has seen the price extend above the 200 day MA at 163.287, and also above the 100 day MA at 163.60. Finally the 50% retracement of the move down from the October 31 high was reached - and briefly breached - at 163.727. The high price for the day reached 163.745 just 2 pips above the midpoint level, and has backed off. </p><p>That gauntlet of resistance targets were key for the bias going forward. Certainly, if the price could get and stay above those level, the buyers would be in firm control on the daily chart, and traders would be looking for more upside momentum. Our </p><p>However, that did not happen and now with the price backing off and trading back toward the lower 200 day MA at 163.28, the market is on the edge between </p><ul><li>Going back higher from here and breaking through to topside targets, OR </li><li>Seeing buyers turn more to sellers and correcting more of the gains.</li></ul><p>Drilling to the 5 minute chart, the run higher is below earlier highs between 163.44 and 163.503. Traders can watch that area for sellers now. If the price moves above that area, there is more upside hope. </p><p>On the downside the rising 100 bar <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/terms/m/moving-average/" class="terms__secondary-term" id="d39a8864-434f-487e-bd1e-f9b895111210" target="_blank">moving average</a> currently at 163.019 would be another downside target that if broken would take some of the bullishness away from the run higher today AND give the sellers above some comfort in the short term technically. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The USDJPY ran higher with the higher USD this morning, and the pair reached - and breached - the high from last week at 135.111, along with the old topside trend line just above that level at 135.14. However, after reaching 135.22, the momentum faded, and the price started to rotate back lower. Buyers started to turn to sellers. </p><p>The corrective low has now reached 134.66. The current price is at 134.78.</p><p>What next?</p><p>The low off the high has reached back into the swing area between 134.492 to 134.76 (see blue numbered circle). That area was home to swing lows and highs going back to December and early January. The price moved above that area last Friday (and failed) </p><p>Can the price now stay above that swing area? </p><p>For buyers, staying above that swing area will keep the buyers in play with hopes for bigger move back to the upside. </p><p>As for the sellers from the trend line above (and the highs), they now want to see a rotation back below that swing area. Doing so will increase the sellers confidence, that the break to the upside was once again a big failure. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The run back to the downside in the US dollar after the flash PMI run higher, has now taken the EURUSD above the 100 hour MA at 1.06755 and up to the 200 hour moving average once again. That moving average comes in at 1.06972. The high price reached 1.06976 and backed off.</p><p>Last Thursday, yesterday and now today, the 200 hour MA has found willing seller's. The hope for the buyers today looking for more, is that the price now stays above the 100 hour moving average below at 1.06755, gathers itself, and rockets through the 200 hour moving average. Getting above 1.07243 would give buyers more confidence on a break of the 200 hour MA. </p><p>Conversely, a move back below the 100 hour moving average (blue line) would be another dagger into the heart of the buyers hoping for more upside, and give the sellers against the 200 hour MA joy.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The run back to the downside in the US dollar after the flash PMI run higher, has now taken the EURUSD above the 100 hour MA at 1.06755 and up to the 200 hour moving average once again. That moving average comes in at 1.06972. The high price reached 1.06976 and backed off.</p><p>Last Thursday, yesterday and now today, the 200 hour MA has found a willing seller's. The hope for the buyers today looking for more, is that the price now stays above the 100 hour moving average below at 1.06755, gathers itself, and rockets through the 200 hour moving average. Getting above 1.07243 would give buyers more confidence on a break of the 200 hour MA. Conversely and will below the 100 hour moving average would be another dagger into the heart of the buyers.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The major US stock indices are sliding to a new session lows:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average is down -482 points or -1.43% at 33338.52</li><li>S&P index is down -56.4 points or -1.38% at 4022.70</li><li>NASDAQ index is down -202.22 points or -1.72% at 11584.50</li></ul><p>Looking at the S&P index, it fell below its 200 hour moving average of 4047.27 and has now dipped below its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the December 22 low at 4030.82. The next target comes in at the swing low from January 30 at 4015.55. The 200 hour moving average is now a close risk defining level for sellers. Stable is more bearish. Last time they price traded below the 200 day moving averages back on January 19.</p><p>US yields are higher but off their highest levels:</p><ul><li>2 year 4.699% +7.6 basis points</li><li>5 year 4.129% +9.4 basis points</li><li>10 year 3.909% +8.2 basis points</li><li>30 year 3.935% +4.7 basis points</li></ul><p>The 2 year yield traded briefly above the high yield from last week at 4.718%. The high yield reached 4.725% at session highs today. That yield is the highest since November 8.</p><p>With stronger data in the US, the risks of a tighter Fed policy going forward is entering the market. Keeping the terminal rate at 5.25% as per the Fed's game plan might be more difficult given the still robust spending.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The RBNZ has a predicament as they decide whether to raise rates by the expected 50 basis points or come in lower (pause?) as a result of the devastation from cyclone Gabrielle. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/nz-treasury-says-cyclone-reconstruction-will-boost-economic-activity-rbnz-implications-20230220/" target="_blank" rel="follow">NZ treasury chimed in overnight</a> saying that the reconstruction efforts would raise inflationary pressures and will likely keep the RBNZ higher for longer. The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-shadow-board-recommend-50bp-interest-rate-hike-this-week-at-monetary-policy-meeting-20230220/" target="_blank" rel="follow">Shadow Board</a> also recommended 50 bps. </p><p>Counter arguments (perhaps humanitarian influenced) argue for a pause (see <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/rbnz-meet-this-week-flooding-cyclone-events-bolster-the-case-for-a-pause-20230220/" target="_blank" rel="follow">post here</a>).</p><p>Looking at the NZDUSD , the pair has been pushing to the downside over the last week or so of trading, with the pair bottoming on Friday. Yesterday and today, the price has seen up and down trading. That has allowed the 100 hour MA (blue line) to catch up to the price (see blue line). The Asian high and the London morning high both found willing sellers against the MA level, keeping the sellers in control. A move above would be a modest bias shift to the upside in the short term, but with more work to do.</p><p>ON the topside getting above the highs from yesterday and today at 0.6361 would be an initial step toward more buyer control, followed by a move above the 38.2% of the move down from high last week at 0.62677. Ultimately a move above the 200 hour MA (and 50% of the same move lower) at 0.62909 would be needed if the buyers are to assume more control. </p><p>Until then, the sellers are more in control, with a move below the low from last week at 0.61929, the next key target to get to and through. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>It is a mixed bag in the forex market to start the trading day. The dollar is higher versus the EUR, but lower vs the GBP. Against the JPY the greenback is higher and because of lower CPI in Canada, the dollar is also moving to the upside vs. the loonie. </p><p>For a technical look at the those currencies watch the morning forex technical report for February 21 2023. </p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>The GBP is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The GBP got a boost after flash manufacturing and services PMI came in stronger than expected (<a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/uk-february-flash-services-pmi-533-vs-492-expected-20230221/" target="_blank" rel="follow">click here</a>). The AUD wandered lower helped by sellers near the AUDUSD's 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below). The price has dipped below the 100 hour MA and is trying to keep below that MA in early NA trading (see blue line in the chart below). </p><p>The GBP strength today is also being driven by the EURGBP which is tumbling lower after waffling between the 100/200 hour MAs ahead of the UK PMI data. The low briefly moved below the low from last week near 0.8797, but there is some "stall" against that level now. The 0.88195 will be eyed above for intraday clues. Stay below keeps the sellers in control. Move above and there may be more corrective momentum (after support held). </p><p>US stocks are back from the President's Day holiday, and are moving to the downside as fears of a stronger recovery/more Fed tightening, and increased tension in Ukraine as Putin spoke and upped the ante on his war with Ukraine and the west. Yields are also higher on the growth and inflation fear. In the US the S&P/Global flash PMI indices will be released at 9:45 AM ET (47.4 manufacturing 47.3 services expected). The existing home sales will be released at 10 AM ET (4.10 million estimate).</p><p>Canada CPI will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The USDCAD is sitting on its 100 hour MA near 1.3440 ahead of the release and awaiting the next shove from the data (est. 0.7% MoM and 6.1% YoY). Retail sales in Canada will also be released at 8:30 AM ET (0.5% est). </p><p>In the new trading day (at 8 PM ET) the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce her interest-rate decision. There is some uncertainty as result of the devastating impact of cyclone Gabrielle, with some calling for the central bank to hold off on tightening. The central bank was expected to tighten by 50 basis points. Technically, the NZDUSD is so far holding below its 100 hour MA at 0.6250 after a couple of tests today. </p><p>A snapshot of the markets are showing:</p><ul><li>Spot gold is trading down $-9.60 or -0.52% at $1831.30</li><li>Spot silver is trading down eight cents or -0.37% at $21.71</li><li>WTI crude oil is trading up $0.47 at $77.02</li><li>Bitcoin is trading a bit lower $24,612 </li></ul><p>In the premarket for US stocks, the major indices are taken on the chin:</p><ul><li>Dow Industrial Average -285 points after Friday's 129.84 point rise</li><li>S&P index is trading down -31 points after Friday's -11.32 point decline</li><li>NASDAQ index is -127 points after Friday's -68.56 point decline</li></ul><p>Walmart earnings to came out better than expected, but it's not helping the averages (EPS $1.71 versus $1.51 expected, revenues $164.05 billion versus $159.76 billion expected. They also raise the dividend 2% to $2.28 per share. They did guide lower that $1.25 – $1.30 versus $1.36 expected. Shares are down -3.37% in premarket trading.</p><p>In the European equity markets, the major indices are also trading lower. Yesterday the UK FTSE 100 closed at a record high level (although the intraday high was short of the all-time high):</p><ul><li>German DAX, -0.33%</li><li>France's CAC, -0.26%</li><li>UK's FTSE 100, -0.21%</li><li>Spain's Ibex, -0.3%</li><li>Italy's FTSE 100 -0.6%</li></ul><p>in the Asian-Pacific markets:</p><ul><li>Japan's Nikkei 225 index, -0.21% </li><li>Hang Seng index -1.71%</li><li>Shanghai composite index +0.49%</li><li>Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index -0.21%</li></ul><p>In the US a debt market, yields are marching to the upside. The 10 year yield is up 5.1 basis points to 3.879%:</p><p>In the European debt markets, yields are higher as well with the better PMI data out of the UK lifting their tenure yield up 11.6 basis points</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can see that after the break of the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a>, the price is having a hard time breaking lower as the strong <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">support</a> at 0.6860 halted the selling momentum. </p><p>The bearish bias remains though as we have the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving averages</a> pointing south. The USD is supported fundamentally as the market is repricing a higher terminal rate from the Fed and no cuts for this year. This repricing started with the very strong <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-nonfarm-payroll-517k-vs-185k-estimate-unemployment-rate-34-vs-35-estimate-20230203/">NFP</a> report and hot economic reports afterwards. The market is probably just waiting for some catalyst before pushing lower. </p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the selling momentum waned as the price tried a breakout of the support at 0.6860 as depicted by the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">divergence</a> with the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a>. It’s possible that we will see first a pullback to the downward trendline before another attempt from the sellers to break the support. </p><p>The buyers will need first to break the trendline to the upside to start targeting higher highs and the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">resistance</a> at the 0.70 handle, which will be the key spot for both sides.</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that there’s <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-confluence-20220318/">confluence</a> with a 61.8% <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-using-fibonacci-retracements-20220421/">Fibonacci retracement</a> level at the trendline. That may be a target for the buyers and a good spot to lean on for the sellers as they will have a defined risk and can fold fast if the price starts breaking the trendline to the upside. </p> This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can see that the price failed to break the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/">triangle</a> last week. The price found sellers at the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-trendlines-20220406/">trendline</a> and the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">resistance</a> at 1.3520. USD/CAD is one of the ugliest major pairs in terms of price action as it’s been ranging for a long time now. This is a signal of uncertainty and strength of both currencies. </p><p>The USD is supported by a repricing higher in interest rates expectations and the CAD has been doing good thanks also to high oil prices. Buyers will need a clear breakout to the upside to start piling in and target the top of the triangle at 1.3950. On the other hand, sellers will need a breakout to the downside to target lower lows.</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can see more closely the rangebound price action that’s been going on for over a month now. We have the tight range between the resistance at 1.3450 and the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">support</a> at 1.3350 with the high at 1.3520 and the low at 1.3265. </p><p>If the price falls back into the range, then we should expect a further fall to the support at 1.3350. As of now, the resistance of the range at 1.3450 turned support and may be the area where buyers will pile in to retry another breakout of the triangle. </p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that after bouncing from the resistance turned support at 1.3450, the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving averages</a> switched to a bullish bias. This signals that the buyers are in control for now and they should fold only if the moving averages turn bearish and the price falls back into the range. </p><p>We have <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/EconomicCalendar">US PMIs today</a> and given that good news is bad news now for risk sentiment, we may see the USD being bid in case the PMIs surprise to the upside. Anyway, the breakouts of the key technical levels mentioned previously will give the direction.</p> This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

<p>On the daily chart below, we can see that the price is getting near the neckline of the possible <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/chart-patterns-guide-20220125/">double top</a> formation at 1.2444. The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-divergence-20220429/">divergence</a> between the two tops and the <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-macd-20220427/">MACD</a> increases the odds of the pattern working out. The neckline at 1.1839 for now is the natural target and a clear break lower would open the door for a possible fall to 1.1250. </p><p>The <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-understanding-moving-averages-20220425/">moving averages</a> are pointing south and the red long period moving average acted as <a href="https://www.forexlive.com/Education/technical-analysis-support-and-resistance-20220405/">resistance</a> along with the 1.2265 level. As long as the moving averages maintain the bearish bias, we can expect the price to break the neckline</p><p>On the 4 hour chart below, we can see that the selling momentum is fading. The price is moving lower very slowly, probably waiting for some fundamental catalyst as the market is still uncertain on what’s next. Remember that good news is bad news now for the pair. We can see there’s another divergence, which in this instance can signal a pullback to the trendline before another push lower</p><p>On the 1 hour chart below, we can see that there’s a possible inverted head and shoulders pattern, which would have the trendline as target. That looks good if everything lines up this perfectly. Buyers will need to wait for a breakout of the neckline though before finding conviction for a rally. </p><p>The moving averages are still tilted lower and it would be another extra confirmation for the buyers if they tilt higher. For the sellers, the 1.20 handle is key in the near term. A clear break below and the selling momentum should resume till the neckline at 1.1839. Otherwise, we should start to see them piling in at the trendline. </p> This article was written by ForexLive at www.forexlive.com.

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Ed Moya reviews the latest market news with Jonny Hart. They discussed the Walmart and Home Depot earnings, President Putin’s State of the Nation address, and cryptos.

The Canadian dollar has weakened on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3517, up 0.48%. Inflation drops, retail sales mixed Canada’s inflation rate dropped in January. Headline inflation dropped to 5.9%, compared to 6.3% in December and below the 6.1% estimate. The core rate, which is considered a more reliable indicator, […]

Oil Crude prices are struggling as global growth concerns return after soft European manufacturing activity data is accompanied by a surge in global bond yields. Central banks globally are about to take policy into even more restrictive levels and that is countering China’s reopening momentum. WTI crude is finding a home between the mid-$70s and […]

The Australian dollar is in negative territory on Tuesday. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6876, down 0.50%. RBA minutes indicate concern over inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia keeps getting in the way of the Australian dollar. RBA Governor Lowe appeared before a parliamentary committee last Wednesday and confirmed that further rate hikes […]

US stocks are declining after retail earnings suggest margin worries are here and it will only get worse as the Fed is likely to deliver more tightening into early summer. Treasury yields are surging here as a tight labor market will force the Fed to do more tightening.  Retailer earnings are suggesting it is going […]

The New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD declined over 0.50% earlier but has pared most of these losses and is trading at 0.6240, down 0.20%. RBNZ expected to hike by 50 bp The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, its first policy meeting this year. The Bank last met […]

Choppy trading continues Oil remains choppy this week with Brent and WTI slipping around 1% in early trade on Tuesday, wiping out similar gains at the start of the week. There is undoubtedly more optimism around the Chinese economy which will stimulate more demand this year but at the same time, sentiment is cooling on […]

It hasn’t been the most thrilling start to the week but the good news is that it should improve from here as the US rejoins and the economic calendar fills out. We were basically treading water on Monday which is often the case on a US bank holiday. The fact that the calendar was as […]

Craig Erlam joins Jonny Hart to discuss how financial markets are trading at the start of the week, why China outperformed following the LPR decision, and the week ahead.

USD/JPY has started the week quietly as it continues to trade at the 134 line. It was a rough week for the yen, which declined by 2% and dropped as low as 135.11, its lowest level this year. The US dollar has received a tailwind from a host of strong economic releases. Retail sales surprised […]

Choppy trade continues Oil prices are bouncing back a little after slipping throughout the last week from their recent highs. The optimism around China today may be responsible for the gains we’re seeing in crude which would make a lot of sense given it’s the world’s largest importer and expected to recover strongly from the […]

Stock markets in Europe are treading water in thin trade at the start of the week amid a light economic calendar and a US bank holiday. It was always likely to be a slow day under the circumstances and that’s exactly what it’s turning out to be. Stock markets remain in a surprisingly strong position […]

The euro showed some volatility at the start of last week but since then it has been in calm waters and has stayed close to the 1.0.7 line.We’ll get a look at eurozone and German PMIs on Tuesday. ECB signals another 50 bp hike The ECB has been criticized for sending mixed messages to the […]

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest moves in AUD/USD and questions whether we’re seeing a head and shoulders breakout.

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses how cable has responded to the change in US and UK interest rate expectations over the last couple of weeks, and what he believes the key levels to watch are.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3470; (P) 1.3509; (R1) 1.3577; More…. USD/CAD’s rally resumed after brief retreat and intraday bias is back on the upside. Outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 1.3967 should have completed at 1.3261. Further rally should now be seen to 1.3684 resistance first. Break there will pave the way back to retest […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 133.97; (P) 134.25; (R1) 134.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 135.09 will resume the rise from 127.20 to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Strong resistance could be seen there to complete the corrective rebound. On the downside, break of […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9213; (P) 0.9238; (R1) 0.9255; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral. On the upside, break of 0.9331 will resume the rebound from 0.9058 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474. However, break of 0.9135 will indicate that the rebound has completed and bring retest of 0.9058 low. In the […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0669; (P) 1.0687; (R1) 1.0703; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and risk stays on the downside with 1.0803 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0610 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1032 and 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support should be seen around there to […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2018; (P) 1.2037; (R1) 1.2060; More… GBP/USD’s rebound from 1.1914 extends higher today but stays well below 1.2269 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral and another fall could still be seen. Below 1.1914 will resume the fall from 1.2446, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2445, to 1.1840 support and […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8879; (R1) 0.8888; More… EUR/GBP’s fall from 0.8977 resumed by breaking through 0.8802 today. The development now argues that whole rebound from 0.8545 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8720 support first. Break there will bring deeper decline to retest 0.8545. For now, risk will stay […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.32; (P) 161.53; (R1) 161.88; More… GBP/JPY’s rebound from 155.33 finally accelerates higher and the development argues that whole correction from 172.11 has completed with three waves down to 155.33. 163.02 support turned resistance was taken out too. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. For now, further […] The post GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8867; (P) 0.8879; (R1) 0.8888; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8802 support holds. Above 0.8927 will target 0.8977 resistance. Firm break there will confirm resumption of whole rally from 0.8545. However, break of 0.8802 will now be a sign of […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5409; (P) 1.5488; (R1) 1.5540; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.5650 resistance will revive that case that correction from 1.5976 has completed at 1.5254. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.5749 resistance first. On the downside, firm break of […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.13; (P) 143.39; (R1) 143.76; More…. Further rise is expected in EUR/JPY as long as 141.50 minor support holds. Corrective fall from 148.38 should have completed at 137.37. Further rally should be seen to 146.71 resistance. On the downside, though, below 141.40 minor support will dampen this bullish view, and turn intraday […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 161.32; (P) 161.53; (R1) 161.88; More… Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 161.80 resistance will argue that whole correction from 172.11 has completed at 155.33. Further rally should be seen back to 169.26/172.11 resistance zone. On the downside, break of 155.33 low […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9845; (P) 0.9872; (R1) 0.9888; More…. Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral at this point. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9407 to 1.0095 at 0.9832, to complete the corrective pattern from 1.0095. Break of 0.9923 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0669; (P) 1.0687; (R1) 1.0703; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.0610 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Risk stays on the downside with 1.0803 resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.0610 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1032 and 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2018; (P) 1.2037; (R1) 1.2060; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation above 1.1914 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. For now, risk stays on the downside as long as 1.2269 resistance holds. Break of 1.1914 will resume the fall from 1.2446, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2445, […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9213; (P) 0.9238; (R1) 0.9255; More… Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 0.9331 will resume the rebound from 0.9058 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0146 to 0.9058 at 0.9474. However, break of 0.9135 will indicate that the rebound has completed and […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Subdued upward momentum associated with the recent jump suggests Bitcoin’s rally is showing some signs of fatigue as it tests a tough hurdle. What’s next for Bitcoin and the key signposts to watch?

The Dollar’s attempt to forge a true reversal from the past four months’ bear trend will likely need to shift its source of strength from rising Fed rate expectations to its discounted role as a safe haven. That means a focus on the VIX rather than Treasury yields.

Upside momentum is fading on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in a neutral state heading into the new week. Will key support levels hold?

The Australian Dollar slid last week as the US Dollar found firmer footing on the prospect of more aggressive Fed rate hikes coming down the pipe. Will AUD/USD turn around?

Gold prices experienced further losses this week, driving XAU to a new 2023 low of $1,827.7. As GC fell into oversold territory, bulls rushed in driving prices back toward $1,850.

Both UK retail sales and inflation data printed better than expected and yet the local currency showed no improvement, reinforcing the negative sentiment around sterling

Dollar Index rallied higher this week as Fed hawks and US data put the Dollar back on top. Can the rally continue?

US equity markets are battling against a strong US dollar and higher US bond yields. Monthly option expiry and Monday’s US bank holiday will increase volatility.

A rise is US 2-year yields has weighed on gold’s hopes of clawing back recent losses. Yields and the dollar remain central to gold valuations heading into CPI next week

Technical charts suggest it may be too soon to conclude the end of the global US dollar slide. The recent jump in the greenback appears to be a consolidation/correction within the overall downtrend. What is the outlook on some of the major currency pairs?

The technicals for US Indices hint at further downside ahead following a positive start to 2023. Can US data out this week reignite the bullish momentum?

The Australian Dollar steadied during the week despite the RBA hiking rates and the trade surplus continuing to fill the coffers of exporters and the government. Will AUD/USD go higher?

Gold prices have stalled in a narrow range of technical support and resistance between $1,870 and $1.880. With XAU/USD trading flat, breakout potential builds.

UK growth flatlined in Q4 2022 according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) today, leaving Sterling caught in the growth vs. inflation conundrum.

The Euro suffered its worst 2-week drop since September as markets aligned themselves closer with what the Fed sees for tightening this year. EUR/USD faces US CPI next.

Tuesday’s drop below key support has somewhat dented the bullish outlook in US equities. However, the uptrend hasn’t reversed on the daily timeframe yet. What is the outlook for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 index?

Natural gas prices fell the most on Tuesday since January 5th, setting the commodity up for yet another weekly loss towards 2020 lows as a key support level on the daily chart was taken out.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger US 500-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Wall Street-bearish contrarian trading bias.

While there is no sign of a reversal of the downtrend in natural gas, on some measures the slide is beginning to look stretched. What is the outlook?

Short-term downward momentum in the Japanese yen remains intact ahead of Friday’s US core PCE price index data. What is the outlook on some of the key JPY crosses?

The New Zealand dollar is looking vulnerable as it tests crucial support as the market scales back expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. What are the key levels to watch?

The Euro’s drop below key support against the US dollar spells some more troubles for the single currency ahead of key US data this week. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch?

Natural gas prices resumed a broader losing streak last week as the commodity fell almost 10%. A Bearish Rectangle chart pattern breakout may spell more trouble for the heating gas ahead.

There is more evidence that upward momentum is slowing as the UK FTSE 100 index scales to record highs, raising the prospect of a pause / minor retreat in the rally. What are the signposts to watch?

Natural gas prices extended losses for a second day in a row, once again placing the focus on the floor of a Bearish Rectangle chart formation. Will the commodity break support?

The downside in the Japanese yen could be limited against the US dollar as it approaches strong support ahead of the changes at the helm of the Bank of Japan. What are the signposts to watch?

The recent retreat in AUD/USD is a reflection of the divergence in the growth outlook of the two economies. This morning’s slide following dismal Australian jobs was no exception. What’s next for AUD/USD?

US CPI data provided little cues on the future path of Fed policy, reasserting the broader consolidation backdrop in EUR/USD. What is the outlook and what are the key levels to watch?

Natural gas prices are losing downside momentum, are prices primed for a reversal? A Bearish Rectangle on the 4-hour setting offers some counterpoints to this argument.

During Monday’s trading session, the S&P 500 index was closed, but the futures market experienced limited electronic trading for the day.

Amid a temporary halt to the gains of the US dollar, the gold (XAU/USD) price gained a positive momentum to rebound to the upside, stable around the level of $1847 an ounce.

For four consecutive trading sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair settled around the recent bullish rebound gains, which affected the 135.10 resistance level.

The silver market showed some signs of life during the trading session on Monday, despite the initial pullback.

The GBP/USD exchange rate revealed its New Year gains last week, and it will be fortunate if it is able to avoid a further breakout below the 1.20 psychological support in the coming days after an unfavorable expansion of the expected Fed interest rate differential.

The US dollar pulled back just a bit in relatively quiet trading on Monday as the 1.35 level continues to cause issues against the Canadian dollar.

The EUR/USD exchange rate erased all of its New Year's gains over the course of February trading but drew support on Friday from the hawkish resolve of the European Central Bank (ECB).

On Monday, the British pound hesitated near the 200-Day EMA, and the market has been noisy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose during its recent trading on the intraday levels, to achieve gains in its last sessions by 0.39%, gaining about 129.84 points.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) settled down during their early trading on Tuesday, stable at their lowest level in two years.

During Monday's trading session, the Australian dollar rallied, breaking above the 50-Day EMA, near the 0.69 level.

Unchanged Early trading of the TRY/USD stabilized on Tuesday morning.

During Monday's trading session, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market rallied a bit, but we saw a lot of noisy and choppy behavior in thin volume.

On Monday's trading session, the British pound had tight trading, going back and forth.

The USD/BRL finished yesterday’s trading near the 5.1675 mark.

The European Central Bank recently released its monetary policy meeting minutes, showing that the bank’s policymakers supported the decision to continue with an accommodative monetary policy stance until March 2022.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said recently that the latest surge in the number of COVID-19 infections has put the British economy in shambles, delaying the country’s recovery.

According to recently released electoral data, the Democratic Party will likely grab the two Georgia Senate seats that were in dispute, giving the party a trifecta for the first time since 2009.

According to Germany's Federal Statistical Office, retail sales rose by 5.6% (annually) in November, higher than expectations of 3.9% but lower than the previous month's 8.6% rise.

The British House of Commons approved the trade agreement with the European Union yesterday in a 521-73 vote, ending the Brexit saga just before the deadline.

The US House of Representatives decided to back President Trump’s proposal to give additional stimulus payments to Americans in need, which has been a recent point of contention between both parties.

The end of autumn 2020 will forever go down in the story of the Forex market.

The Bank of Japan recently released its monetary policy meeting minutes, in which policymakers discussed forms of making their monetary stimulus measures more sustainable.

The US Federal Reserve recently announced its decision to leave the cash rates unchanged, remaining in line with analysts' expectations.

The United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics recently reported the country’s unemployment rate, which stands at 4.9 percent for the third quarter, and lower than expectations of 5.1 percent.

Eurostat recently revised down the third quarter gross domestic product figures, showing that the eurozone economy grew less than previously expected, though at its fastest rate since 1995.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that non-farm payrolls stood at 245,000, which is lower than expectations of 469,000 and last month's 610,000.

The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its decision to keep the interest rates unchanged at 0.1 percent, leaving them at a historical low and in line with analysts' expectations.

The US dollar dropped by 0.39 percent last week against a bundle of its main competitors, giving up last week's gains and closing the week at the 92.32 level.

So far this week, the Australian dollar has advanced against the US dollar, gaining 0.08 percent and continuing its three-week gaining streak, raising concerns about the appreciation of the US dollar.