Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

Australian dollar extends gains as PPI surges

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:24 am

The Australian dollar has posted four straight winning sessions this week and is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6534, up 0.24%. The Aussie has powered higher this week, climbing 1.82%. Australia’s PPI blows past estimate Australia’s Producer Prices index jumped 4.3% y/y in the first quarter, up […]

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 26, 2024 | 04:06 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened lower following a selloff caused by surprisingly high Core PCE data in the US Q1 GDP report. The market started to fade the move right at the open and eventually finished the day almost unchanged. Today we conclude the week with the US PCE report and judging by yesterday’s price action, we might see another rally at least until the new month data next week changes the sentiment. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday opened lower but eventually rallied all the way back to the prior day’s lows. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 15929 level where they will also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the 21 moving average on this timeframe. Given yesterday’s price action, we might see another push to the upside, right into the 15929 resistance where the sellers will look to pile in with a defined risk above the resistance to position into new lows. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the yesterday’s negative gap which was filled soon after as the market rallied for the entire trading session. Moreover, we should see a positive gap today as tech earnings after the close were much better than expected and some key stocks like Alphabet surged into new highs. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 26, 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:43 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rose to the level of 1.2517, rebounded from it, then rebounded from the Fibonacci level of 50.0% (1.2464), and returned to the level of 1.2517. A new rebound from this level will again work in favor of the American currency and lead to some decline in the pair towards the level of 1.2464. Consolidation of quotes above the level of 1.2517 increases the probability of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.2565). The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave has yet to approach the last peak from April 9th. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion at the moment. The first sign of a transition to an uptrend could be a breakout of the peak from April 9th, but bulls need to overcome a distance of about 220 pips to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715. It is unlikely that a trend change to "bullish" should be expected in the coming days. A new downward wave, if weak and does not break the low from April 22nd, can also indicate a trend reversal.On Thursday, the US GDP report greatly helped bullish traders maintain a short-term positive sentiment. Despite the fact that the British pound has been rising for four consecutive days, the previous wave was much larger, so the initiative remains with the bears. Not all reports from the US this week have been positive, with most contributing to the decline of the American currency. Today, there will be at least two interesting reports in America. The core personal consumption expenditure index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. If these two reports at the end of the week turn out to be stronger than traders' expectations, the dollar may start forming a new upward wave. This will be a logical development of the situation. On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the level of 1.2450. Thus, the upward process may continue towards the next level of 1.2620, but most likely, it will end in the near future, and the pair will not exit the descending trend corridor. There are no emerging divergences observed today in any indicator. A rebound of the pair's exchange rate from the upper line of the corridor will work in favor of the American currency.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category for the last reporting week has become less "bullish." The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 8200 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 11433 units. The overall sentiment of large players remains "bullish" but has been weakening in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is almost nonexistent: 72 thousand versus 63 thousand.There are prospects for a decline in the British pound. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 62 thousand to 72 thousand, while the number of short positions has increased from 47 thousand to 63 thousand. This explains the relatively weak decline of the British pound. Over time, bulls will start getting rid of buy positions or increasing sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. Bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete unwillingness to go on the offensive in recent months, but inflation reports in the US and UK may give them new strength.News Calendar for the US and UK:US - Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (12:30 UTC).US - Personal Income and Spending Change (12:30 UTC).US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).On Friday, the economic events calendar contains only three entries in the US. The impact of the news background on the market sentiment today may be of moderate strength.Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:Sales of the British pound are possible today on an hourly chart rebound from the level of 1.2517 with targets at 1.2464 and 1.2363-1.2370. Purchases of the pair were possible on consolidation above the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2517. This target has been reached. New purchases are possible on a rebound from the level of 1.2464 or a close above 1.2517 with a target of 1.2565.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forex forecast 04/26/2024: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:39 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Video market update for April 26, 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:31 am

POtential for the further upside movement on the USD/JPYThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Personal consumption expenditures price index. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 26, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures. The indicator reflects changes in prices for goods and services purchased for personal consumption, except food and energy. The rate may remain at 0.3% YoY and rise from 2.5% to 5.6% YoY, while the core rate will remain at 0.3% MoM and fall from 2.8% to 2.6% YoY. Read more

Swiss franc shrugs after SNB’s Jordan comments

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:58 am

The Swiss franc is steady on Friday. In the European session, USD/CHF is almost unchanged at 0.9118. It has been quite a ride for the Swiss franc, which hit eight-year highs against the US dollar in the last week of 2023. The US dollar has roared back in 2024, surging 8.2% against the Swiss currency. […]

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:43 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. AUDThe RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally dropped the tightening bias.The CPI report beat expectations across the board with high underlying inflation measures.The latest labour market report missed expectations.The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong.The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower remaining in expansion.The market expects the first rate cut in February 2025.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD managed to rally all the way back to the key resistance zone around the 0.6520 level. This is where the sellers will look for shorting opportunities on the lower timeframes, while the buyers will want to see the price continuing higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline around the 0.66 handle. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. If we get a pullback into the trendline, the buyers will likely lean on it with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 0.66 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and position for a drop into new lows. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price is starting to diverge with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback into the trendline where the buyers will look to buy the dip. If the price were to break below the trendline, a reversal would be confirmed, and the sellers will have much higher chances to push the price into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Forecast: GBP Probes Higher Against Yen - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:29 am

The British pound has shot higher during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of upward momentum.

DAX Forex Signal: Continues to Fall - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 02:24 am

The DAX fell significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, as went now looks like we are threatening the 50-Day EMA indicator.

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to Chop Back and Forth - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:59 am

The crude oil markets have been very noisy over the last several days, and at this point in time it’s obvious to me that the market is going to continue to search for some type of stability.

AUD/USD Forecast: Aussie Dollar Continues to See Momentum - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:58 am

The Aussie dollar rallied significantly during the early hours on Thursday, and it looks like we are going to continue to see a lot of volatility.

GBP/USD Forecast: USD Strength, GBP Weakness - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:53 am

The British pound initially rally during the trading session on Thursday but seems to be looking at the 1.25 level as a major barrier that’s all but impossible to stay above for any significant amount of time.

Gold Forecast: Gold Markets Rally a Bit During Early Thursday Trading - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:49 am

Gold initially fell during the trading session on Thursday, but then turned around to show signs of life.

USD/CAD Forecast: Momentum is an Issue, What’s Next? - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:47 am

The US dollar initially fell against the Canadian dollar during the early hours on Thursday, but then turned around to show signs of strength again.

USD/JPY volatile after inflation, BoJ meeting

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Japanese yen is swinging sharply on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.46, up 0.52%. It has been a busy Friday in Japan. Japanese inflation data, which was released just before the end of the Bank of Japan meeting, was much lower than expected. Tokyo Core CPI, which was overshadowed by […]

USDCAD Technical Analysis - Getting close to a key support zone

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:31 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD is getting closer and closer to the key support zone around the 1.3620 level where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. That will be the first opportunity for the buyers followed by the second one around the major trendline if the price were to break below the 1.3620 support. The sellers, on the other hand, will keep pushing at every break lower, and in case they manage to break below the trendline, the next target will be the 1.3225 low. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price yesterday got rejected from the minor downward trendline as the sellers stepped in to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers will need to break above the minor trendline and the 1.3730 resistance zone to turn the trend around and start targeting new highs. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 1.3665 level where there’s also the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again with a defined risk above the resistance to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the trendline and targeting a break above it. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Looking for Support and Momentum - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 01:30 am

The Nasdaq 100 has gone back and forth during trading early on Thursday as we continue to try to find some type of footing for this market to turn things around.

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 26

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:47 am

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0704 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had sharply dropped from the zero mark. Despite this, I sold the euro because I expected a strong movement after the release of the US GDP report, which happened. As a result, the pair fell by more than 25 pips. Yesterday, Germany's leading consumer climate index and the ECB economic bulletin had no impact on the euro, but weak US data led to a surge in volatility and trading volume. Traders found it difficult to determine the direction, but the slower-than-expected economic growth prompted a dollar sell-off, and risk assets gained, which includes the euro. Today's eurozone reports on the M3 money supply and loans to companies and households are unlikely to significantly affect market direction. Therefore, I suggest focusing on the US reports. We'll discuss the reports in the afternoon forecast. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area around 1.0742 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0775. At the level of 1.0775, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after good Eurozone data, in continuation of yesterday's trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0718 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0742 and 1.0775.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0718 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0684, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high and after weak eurozone data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0742 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0718 and 1.0684.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 26

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:47 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2491 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had sharply dropped from the zero mark. Nevertheless, I sold the pound because I expected a strong movement after the release of the US GDP report, which happened. As a result, the pair fell by more than 35 pips. Disappointing US data puts the Federal Reserve in a more difficult position than before. Both rising inflation and slowing US growth are far from what the central bank has been striving for in the past year. Obviously, the weaker the US indicators, the higher the demand for the pound. In the absence of UK data, we can expect the pair to rise in line with the uptrend. Things might change in the afternoon, as we wait for another round of strong US inflation-related data. We'll discuss the reports in the afternoon forecast. For now, I'll proceed with the progress of the new upward trend and buy on pullbacks. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the area around 1.2514 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2554 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2554, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today in line with the upward trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2491 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2514 and 1.2554.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2491 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2454, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high, counting on a small correction before the release of US data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2514 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2491 and 1.2454.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 26

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:47 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 155.67 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the dollar in continuation of the uptrend. However, the pair did not sharply rise, which led to profit-taking. Weak US data hindered the bullish potential. However, everything changed in today's Asian session after the Bank of Japan decided to leave interest rates unchanged. Hints that the BOJ is in no rush to raise rates, as the economy needs to adjust to recent policy changes, supported the dollar. Most likely, the trend will continue. Only very weak US data in the afternoon can hinder the pair's upward potential. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.94 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 157.58 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 157.58, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 156.55 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 156.94 and 157.58.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 156.55 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 155.97, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 156.94 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.55 and 155.97.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Consolidate in General - 26 April 2024

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:35 am

The S&P 500 was fairly quiet in the early hours on Thursday and as we continue to try to sort out where we are going next.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 26, 2024 | 00:13 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ left interest rates unchanged as expected with no other major change. The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Tokyo CPI, which is considered a leading indicator for National CPI, missed expectations across the board by a big margin although it was attributed to a one-off factor.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY eventually managed to break through the key 155.00 handle and extended the rally into new highs as the Japanese officials continue to refrain from an intervention given the strong fundamentals against the Yen. From a risk management perspective, it’s worth to keep an eye on the trendline around the 151.92 level where we can also find the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. If the price gets there at some point, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is starting to diverge with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback into the minor trendline around the previous resistance now turned support at 155.00. That’s where the buyers will look to buy the dip with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into the 160.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 151.92 support zone. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the spike higher following the unchanged BoJ policy decision and Governor Ueda’s comments. The first opportunity to buy the dip will come around another minor trendline where we have also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the next trendline around the 154.60 level. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Continues to Grind a Bit Higher - 26 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:59 pm

The euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the 1.37 level.

Hot forecast for EUR//USD on April 26, 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:55 pm

The EUR/USD pair has settled above the level of 1.0700, which is a positive sign that suggests that the volume of long positions will rise.On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area of 50/70, which points to the growth in buying volumes.On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the bullish cycle.OutlookIn this situation, keeping the price above the level of 1.0700 by the end of the trading week may gradually push the euro towards the levels of 1.0800-1.0900. However, if the bullish momentum stops and the quote falls below the level of 1.0700, sellers will have a second chance to update the local low.Complex indicator analysis indicates an uptrend phase in the short- and long-term timeframes.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 193.67; (P) 194.31; (R1) 195.39; More.. GBP/JPY’s up trend continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 195.86 long term resistance. Firm break there will target 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 194.33 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain bullish as long as […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:48 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 166.28; (P) 166.68; (R1) 167.42; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside as recent up trend continues. Next target is 168.72 projection level. On the downside, below 166.66 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rally. In the bigger picture, current rally is […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:46 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8563; (P) 0.8577; (R1) 0.8590; More… Break of 55 4H EMA suggests that EUR/GBP’s rise from 0.8519 has completed at 0.8643, ahead of medium term trend line resistance. near term bearishness is retained. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 0.8491/7 support zone. On the upside, above 0.8599 minor resistance […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:43 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6419; (P) 1.6453; (R1) 1.6495; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 1.6368 support will revive that case that rebound from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.7062. Deeper decline would then be […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9773; (P) 0.9786; (R1) 0.9801; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rise from 0.9563 would target a retest on 0.9847. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9252 high. On the downside, below 0.9708 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:01 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6490; (P) 0.6515; (R1) 0.6543; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6464 minor support will […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

Monetary supply M3. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), March data on the M3 money supply aggregate in the EU is due. The indicator measures the value of all foreign currency and liquid monetary assets in the hands of the population and is an important indicator of inflation in the country, the growth of which may lead to higher interest rates by financial regulators. It may rise from 0.4% to 0.5% YoY. Read more

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3629; (P) 1.3680; (R1) 1.3710; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD is back on the downside with break of 1.3660 support. Fall from 1.3845 short term top would extend to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3597). On the upside, above 1.3730 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:55 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower. The US Q1 GDP surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong economy, nonetheless. The Core PCE though surprised to the upside pushing rate cuts further away. The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The market expects the first rate cut in September. EURThe ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and opened the door for a rate cut in June.The recent Eurozone CPI missed expectations.The labour market remains historically tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.The latest Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping further in contraction.The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke through the key 1.07 resistance and it’s now getting rejected by the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the major trendline. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent price action might have formed a bearish flag, although the price will need to break below the bottom trendline to confirm it. The price is struggling right at the upper bound of the flag as the sellers continue to pile in to position for a drop into new lows. A breakout to the upside would invalidate the bearish flag and give the buyers clear way to target the major trendline around the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action and we can notice that we have another important zone around the 1.0690 level where we can find the confluence of the previous resistance now turned support, the minor black trendline and the 4-hour 21 moving average. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below the 1.0690 zone to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:54 pm

.Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0692; (P) 1.0716; (R1) 1.0754; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the upside with break of 1.0723 support turned resistance. Stronger rebound would be seen to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0784). On the downside, break of 1.0677 minor support will turn intraday bias to the downside for retesting 1.0601 […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:51 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2464; (P) 1.2495; (R1) 1.2543; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:49 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9104; (P) 0.9137; (R1) 0.9155; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral again after it retreated after breaching 0.9151 resistance briefly. On the upside, firm break of 0.9151 will resume the rally from 0.8332 and should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 0.9085 will turn bias to […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 22:43 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.32; (P) 155.53; (R1) 155.87; More… USD/JPY’s fall continues today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Next target is 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. On the downside, below 155.30 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 153.58 […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Key events on April 26: fundamental analysis for beginners

Apr 25, 2024 | 21:38 pm

Analysis of macroeconomic reports: There are quite a few macroeconomic events scheduled for Friday, but all of them are from the US. There won't be any significant reports in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or Germany. Therefore, currency pairs may exhibit sluggish movements during the European trading session. The US will release reports on Personal Income and Spending of American consumers, the PCE index, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Personal Income and Spending reports aren't exactly significant. Many experts consider the PCE index to be the "Federal Reserve's inflation gauge of choice", but it usually has a weak impact on market sentiment. The Consumer Sentiment Index may provoke a reaction, but only in case of a significant deviation of the actual value from the forecast.Analysis of fundamental events:From Friday's fundamental events, only a speech by Luis de Guindos from the European Central Bank stands out. However, as we have already mentioned, the market isn't raising questions about the ECB's monetary policy at the moment, so we don't expect the ECB vice president to say anything new or significant. Both pairs continue their bullish correction, and that's the most important thing at the moment. The downtrend is not yet over. A series of weak reports from the US should not stop the dollar's rise. General conclusion:Today, novice traders should pay attention to the PCE and University of Michigan reports. Most likely, the market will show a weak reaction to these reports. Both currency pairs may go through low volatility during the European session due to the quiet news background. In regards to the euro, the technical picture is clear at the moment, as the ascending channel indicates the range and direction in which the pair can be traded. With the pound, things are more complicated, but the corrective phase is present here as well.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 26. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 25, 2024 | 21:32 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair continued to correct higher on Thursday. The US GDP report had an influence on the pair's movement, as there were simply no other events or reports during the day. The British pound only managed to rise to the level of 1.2502 because the quarterly GDP figure turned out to be one and a half times lower than forecasted. The American economy is slowing down, and this is bad news. The fact that US economic growth cooled will lead to a slowdown in inflation in the future. And the faster inflation slows down, the sooner the Federal Reserve will move to ease its monetary policy, which is bad for the dollar. We still believe that the market has not priced in half of the factors causing the GBP/USD pair's decline, so we expect it to fall further. For now, the downtrend remains intact.GBP/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe. In the morning, long positions could be opened near the level of 1.2457. Unfortunately, a false sell signal was formed around the level of 1.2502, followed by a false buy signal, which offset the profit from the first trade. Therefore, it was necessary to execute signals that were not formed around the level of 1.2502. There was one particular signal – a rebound at the beginning of the US session from the level of 1.2457. Like the first signal, this turned out to be the right signal and beginners could earn another 25 pips. Overall, the day was chaotic but still profitable.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. After surpassing the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. Today, novice traders can look for new sell signals around the level of 1.2502. The market is not in a rush to sell, but the pound is gradually depreciating in the medium term, which is a good sign. The pair may continue to correct higher if today's US data turns out to be weaker than expected.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. There are no significant events planned in the UK for today, while the US will release Personal Income and Spending, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE).Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 26. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 25, 2024 | 21:31 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD continued to trade within an ascending channel on Thursday. The pair repeatedly changed direction. The US GDP report was partly responsible for this, which turned out to be significant and also highly contradictory. As a result, the market initially bought the pair, then panicked and sold it, and eventually bought it again. The US economy grew by just 1.6% in the first quarter, significantly below forecasts. However, on an annual basis, the economy grew by 3.1%, exceeding market expectations. This is why the market initially bought the dollar and then sold it. It simply couldn't determine whether the report was positive or negative. We also find it difficult to answer this question. We believe that the main point is that the pair is correcting higher, and the dollar can easily rise once this phase ends.EUR/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe. Throughout the European session, the pair couldn't decide where to move from the level of 1.0725. Eventually, there was a rebound from this level and the price dropped to the target of 1.0678. This was the first signal to execute, which resulted in a profit of about 25 pips. The rebound from the level of 1.0678 was to be executed using a long position, and by evening, the price returned to the level of 1.0725, so beginners could earn another 30 pips of profit.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists, but the EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher. We believe that the euro should fall further, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. However, at the moment, the market is likely taking a break before it starts a new downward movement.Today, the pair may fall as it is currently near the upper boundary of the channel. Yesterday, the US GDP report prevented the decline, and today, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and the Consumer Sentiment Index in the US may hinder it. Nevertheless, we do not expect a strong rise.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. There are no significant events planned in the European Union, while the US will release reports on Personal Income and Outlays, Consumer Sentiment Index, and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. Together, these indices may influence market sentiment.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for USD/JPY for April 26-29, 2024: sell below 155.62 (21 SMA - overbought)

Apr 25, 2024 | 20:28 pm

USD/JPY is trading around 155.62, above 7/8 Murray, and within the bullish channel forming since April 15. In the H1 chart, we can see that the Japanese Yen is strongly overbought and it is likely that a technical correction will occur in the next few hours and USD/JPY could reach the bottom of this channel around 155.18.A sharp break of this uptrend channel and a consolidation below 155.60 could change the course of the Yen. USD/JPY could reverse downwards. A technical correction could be confirmed if USD/JPY falls below the psychological level of 155.00 and could reach the 200 EMA located at 154.62 and the 5/8 Murray at 153.90.Given that the Japanese Yen has strong resistance at 156.25 (8/8 Murray) as long as it trades above 155.40, USD/JPY could continue its rise and hit this target. On the contrary, the trend would change below 155.20. The eagle indicator is giving an overbought signal, so a technical correction is imminent in the coming days. Thus, we can sell below 155.62 (21 SMA).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Cardano Cryptocurrency, Friday April 26 2024.

Apr 25, 2024 | 20:17 pm

On the 4 hour chart of Cardano cryptocurrency seems there is a price movement which moves inside the downward channel where it means the Seller is conquering the condition of this cryptocurrency. However, there is still a chance to corrected to its strength above up to the level of Bearish Fair Value Gap (Pink). But as long as the strengthening correction does not break above the level 0,49650, then Cardano still has the potential to continue its weakness until the level 0,46159 as the main target and level 0,43963 as the next target to be aimed.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Polkadot Cryptocurrency, Friday April 26 2024.

Apr 25, 2024 | 20:17 pm

From what we seen on the 4 hour chart, Polkadot cryptocurrency seems pushed by the seller to break below the level 6,6941 although there is a potential of strengthening correction to test the Bearish Fair Value Gap area (Pink) but as long as does not break above the level 7,3574, then Polkadot still has the potential to continue it's weakness up to the level 6,2681.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 26, 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 20:01 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, it was difficult for the euro to close the day with a white candle, under pressure due to the high volatility of the stock market. The pair has reached the target level of 1.0724, and the next target is 1.0757.The current position of the Marlin oscillator, which is becoming more flat every day, indicates a low probability that the price will climb above 1.0757, just as Marlin itself is not averse to a downward reversal from the zero line. A sign of such a reversal will be the price consolidating below the level of 1.0724. We are waiting for the price to trade in the 1.0636/56 range. On the 4-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has already tried to move out of the consolidation range by moving downward on Thursday. At the same time, a divergence with the price was formed. These circumstances reduce the chance of even working off the nearest resistance at 1.0757. The choice will become clear on Monday morning.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 26, 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 19:59 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the pound closed the day up by 49 pips, the upper shadow reached the target level of 1.2525 on the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement. The Marlin oscillator moved downward without reaching the border of the uptrend territory.The correction has most likely ended. Now the price is facing the target of 1.2186 and ahead of it are the levels: 1.2427, 1.2370, 1.2287-1.2307. On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is not turning around as quickly as expected, therefore, prices are likely to experience a slight delay.There is a reason for such a delay and balance of forces. The level of 1.2427 is reinforced by the MACD indicator line and Fibonacci level of 23.6% on the daily timeframe. Overcoming this support will be a signal for the start of a decline in the medium-term.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 26, 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 19:58 pm

AUD/USD The Australian dollar, along with the general market, rose yesterday. The upper shadow tested the daily balance indicator line. The Marlin oscillator entered positive territory this morning. The price is aiming for the intersection point of the balance line and the MACD line around the 0.6556 mark (coinciding with the April 11th peak).However, staying above the MACD line does not suggest further growth towards 0.6627, as was the case on April 9th. A return below 0.6480 would indicate a decline towards 0.6410. In the near future, the Australian dollar may drop to the target support of 0.6273 (October 2023 low).On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to rise under pressure from the forming divergence with the Marlin oscillator. The level of 0.6556 could work out. Next, the price may form a consolidation range before falling below 0.6480. We expect the Australian dollar to move sideways and the situation to resolve next week.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Persistent JPY bearish trend intact despite growing intervention risk

Apr 25, 2024 | 19:38 pm

Tokyo’s core-core inflation for April came in at 1.8% y/y, its slowest pace of increase since September 2022 & below BoJ’s inflation target of 2%. The latest set of softer-than-expected Tokyo’s CPI may push back the timing of the next BoJ’s interest rate hike. Widening of US Treasuries-JGBs yield spread premium is likely to support […]

Interest rate decision. Japan, 05:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 18:00 pm

At 05:00 (GMT+2), the Bank of Japan will announce its decision on the interest rate. It may be kept at 0.10% to assess the effectiveness of the increase in borrowing costs already carried out last month. Read more

Producer price index. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Q1 data on the producer price index is due, one of the main indicators of inflation in the country, recording changes in prices for goods and services sold by producers. The indicator also reflects changes in the costs of their production. It may rise from 0.9% to 1.9% YoY. Read more

The ECB also has reasons to worry

Apr 25, 2024 | 15:59 pm

Demand for the euro has increased over the past few days, but I still believe we are dealing with a corrective wave within the larger Wave 3 or C. If this assumption is correct, the quotes will eventually decline under any circumstances, regardless of any news background. The market used the US GDP report to increase demand for the US currency. This is because the current corrective wave has taken on a convincing appearance, suggesting that the downtrend will resume.The upcoming rate cut cycle in the Eurozone can be considered as the main reason for the euro's decline. The European Central Bank is about 80% certain of the timing of the first round of policy easing. This is likely to happen in June. Although market participants are also expecting the first rate cut in June, there are still certain circumstances that could prompt the central bank to postpone the first round to the following month.One of the ECB's policymakers, Isabel Schnabel, said that the services sector is a concern for the central bank. "We may face problems because of this sector. The more concerning part is productivity growth," she said. "We've had negative productivity growth now over several quarters." I would also like to remind you that some of Schnabel's colleagues are urging the market not to rush with expectations regarding the easing of monetary policy. They believe that the current baseline scenario is one round of easing over two meetings. However, after the first round, the ECB intends to closely analyze incoming economic data. If the slowdown in inflation abates, the pauses between easing rounds may be longer than one meeting. Currently, the market expects three rounds of interest rate cuts in 2024. This is more than the expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.I believe that the current news background still allows us to expect the formation of a downward Wave 3 or C, which is not yet clearly completed. The recent upward wave may have completed its formation already. Therefore, I expect the market to start increasing demand for the dollar again.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0463 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. The sell signal we need near 1.0880 was formed (an attempt at a breakthrough failed). Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to build a descending wave. Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The dollar: if it weren't luck, it was for misfortune

Apr 25, 2024 | 15:57 pm

"Buy the rumor, sell the fact." US economic growth fell short of expectations, yet investors were so convinced of its slowdown that they were selling the US dollar from the beginning of the week until April 26. As soon as it became known that GDP expanded by 1.6%, rather than the anticipated 2.5% as forecasted by Bloomberg experts, it was time to take profit. As a result, EUR/USD failed to stay above the 1.07 mark.The US economy grew at its slowest pace since the start of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle in 2022, which had initially spooked American consumers. This time around, they became the main driving force behind gross domestic product expansion. Personal spending in the first quarter increased by 2.5%, while PCE jumped to 3.7%, exceeding expectations of +3.4%. In my opinion, it was the inflation dynamics alongside confirmed unemployment benefit claims that spooked EUR/USD bulls.US GDP DynamicsInvestors received a slowing economy and accelerating inflation, which makes it more complicated for the Fed. The US central bank needs time to reflect and gather new data. It's no wonder that the chances, as indicated by CME derivatives, of the Fed cutting the federal funds rate in June fell from 18% to 13% the day before the important release, and in July, from 43% to 38%. The futures market extended a helping hand to the EUR/USD bears.Wells Fargo believes that the GDP report raised the possibility that the US economy might be heading for stagflation, where prices are significantly higher than what Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues would prefer, while the economy loses steam. Essentially the same thing happened in the UK at the beginning of the year, and its currency, the pound, felt very confident. Should we be surprised by the dollar's success?Key Indicators from the US GDP ReportThus, the market's initial reaction was to be shocked; however, EUR/USD is gradually recovering. If the divergence in economic growth between the US and the Eurozone diminishes, bulls shouldn't throw in the towel just yet. The latest data on German business activity, business climate, and consumer confidence indicate positive shifts in the German economy. Meanwhile, France continues to remain the workhorse of the currency bloc. Let's see if the euro can capitalize on this.Once the GDP fervor subsides, investors will focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditure data – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. According to Bloomberg experts' forecasts, the March PCE is expected to accelerate from 2.5% to 2.6% on an annual basis and maintain its previous 0.3% monthly growth. This isn't the kind of dynamic that will make everyone rush to the US dollar.Technically, the formation of a daily EUR/USD candlestick with a long upper shadow shows the bulls' weakness. They failed to lift the pair's quotes out of the previously defined consolidation range of 1.061–1.071. Furthermore, if the euro falls below $1.068, it will catalyze a peak towards its lower boundary and serve as a trigger for selling.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Tokyo Core consumer price index. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), the April core consumer price index is due, recording changes in the price of goods and services in the Japanese capital, except food and energy. It is a key way to determine purchasing trends and inflation in a country. It may drop from 2.4% to 2.2% QoQ. Read more

GfK consumer confidence. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2) in the UK, April data on the consumer confidence index from GfK Group is due. The indicator evaluates the spending of the country’s residents, which is part of economic activity. The negative dynamics may slow from −21.0 points to −20.0 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

USDCAD another pair that has retraced the USD gains. Back down testing 50% midpoint.

Apr 25, 2024 | 11:31 am

The USDCAD has been trading up and down over the last few days of trading. The volatility intensified today with a move lower into retracement and swing area support, followed by a move higher into swing area resistance, followed by another move lower into the same retracement and swing area support as the initial move down today.The price is currently testing the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36612. The swing area is between 1.3654 up to 1.3668.The decision for traders is whether to buy the dip against the 50%/against the swing area down to 1.36546 (and for the subsequent bounce), or look for a break of that level with more momentum pushing the price down toward the 61.8% retracement and rising 200 bar moving average on 4 hur chart at 1.3615 area? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD retracing most of the gains from core PCE rise

Apr 25, 2024 | 10:36 am

The USD moved higher on the back of the core PCE data within the US GDP report. However, those gains have nearly been erased. Although the yields are still higher, they are off their highest levels. US stocks have also erased some of their declines with the NASDAQ index now down -1.10% or -167 points. At session lows, the NASDAQ was down -368.83 points. The S&P index was down -81.04 points at session lows. It is currently down -38.39 points.EURUSD:The EURUSD moved down to test its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) after the higher PCE data. That support level did hold support. The price has now moved back near the high for the day at 1.0739. The current price is trading at 1.0737. The 50% midpoint of the April trading range is at 1.07425. Get and stay above those levels would be more bullish.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved down to retest the broken 38.2% retracement after the GDP data at 1.2455. Buyers leaned against the level and have now pushed the price back up toward its high for the day in the process, the price is now moving back above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.25133. The high for the day reached 1.25244 right after the data release. Move above that level and traders would target the 61.8% retracement at 1.25519, and the 200-day moving out at 1.25597.USDCHF: The USDCHF moved higher today and extended above the 2024 high but only by about three pips. Buyers could not muster up some momentum (see chart below). The subsequent move back to the downside, has now moved back toward its 100 and 200-hour moving averages between 0.9117 and 0.9122. Getting and staying below those levels would have traders looking down toward the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% retracement of the April trading range. Both those levels come in at 0.9095 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD ping-ponging between 38.2% and 50% of the April trading range

Apr 25, 2024 | 09:32 am

The volatile move to the upside in the dollar after the US GDP, has reversed course after holding support against its broken 38.2% retracement of the April trading range. The corrective move has also stalled against the 50% of the same range.Traders are awaiting the next shove outside of the retracement levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 25-27, 2024: buy above 1.0684 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:56 am

EUR/USD is trading around 1.10710, above the 21 SMA, and within the uptrend channel forming since April 12. During the European session, the euro reached a high of 1.07388, the level that coincided with the top of the bullish trend channel and with the 4/8 Murray zone. Both levels represent strong resistance.Since reaching the top of the bullish channel, EUR/USD lost ground. Since then, it has been bouncing above the SMA 21 located at 1.0584 and around 3/8 Murray which represents strong support.In the next few hours, we could look for opportunities to buy the euro only if it trades above 1.0684 (21 SMA) with targets at 1.0735 and at the 200 EMA located at 1.0757.In case the euro reaches the resistance level of 1.0760, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell as the eagle indicator has been giving an overbought signal since April 24. Thus, we could expect a technical correction to occur in the few next days.Technically, the euro is within an uptrend channel. While trading within this channel, any technical correction will be seen as a signal to buy. On the contrary, a break below this channel could revive the bearish cycle and the instrument could reach the psychological level of 1.05.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 25-27, 2024: buy above $2,324 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:36 am

Gold is trading around 2,333, above the 21 SMA, and above 5/8 Murray with a bullish bias. In the H4 chart, we can see that gold made a recovery above 5/8 Murray, reached the top of the bullish channel, and is now falling.We hope that Gold can continue its rise and reach 2,345 in the next few hours. If a break occurs above this area, we could look for opportunities to buy with a target at 2,375 (6/8 Murray). The metal could finally cover the gap left at 2,391.In case gold makes a technical correction and reaches the support of 2,312 (5/8 Murray), this will be seen as an opportunity to resume buying and the price could hit the target of 2,375.The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to buy provided that gold trades above 2,312.On the contrary, if gold consolidates below 5/8 Murray and breaks the bullish trend channel, the current trend could change and we could expect a bearish acceleration. Therefore, the instrument could fall towards the 200 EMA located at 2,270 and finally to 4/8 Murray at 2,250.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD ups and downs as fundamental news keeps volatility high for the pair.

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:24 am

Earlier this week, Australian CPI for the quarter came in higher than expectations and that helped to push the AUDUSD pair to the upside. The price extended to the 200-day moving average and 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 0.6530 where sellers leaned. The subsequent move to the downside move the price to a swing area between 0.6475 and 0.6486. The price also wrote below it's 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 0.65028.Today despite Australian and New Zealand the nonholiday, the AUDUSD resumed its upward momentum and took the price safely above its 200 bar moving averages on the top side.Then US inflation became the focus, and the pair moved lower after higher core PCE in the US GDP report. The price has subsequently moved back below the 50% midpoint and 100 bar moving average at 0.65028. That level is now close resistance for traders and will represent a barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay below is more bearish. Move above and stay above would be more bullish.Find out about all the ups and downs in the AUDUSD in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysis of GBP/USD on April 25th. The dollar suffered a local defeat to win the war

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:52 am

For the GBP/USD pair, wave analysis remains quite complex but may become clearer in the coming weeks. A successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or c. If this wave does continue to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable to work with. There needs to be more simplicity and understanding in recent months. For a long time, the pair has been in a sideways movement and only now has real chances of building an impulsive downward wave.In the current situation, my readers can expect the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the pound should decline by another minimum of 300–400 basis points. With such a decline, wave 3 or c will be quite small; I expect a much larger decline in quotes. The news background supports the US dollar, and after breaking through the level of 1.2469 (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological blockade on sellers has been removed.Sellers return to the market. The GBP/USD pair rate managed to rise by 65 basis points on Thursday and then fall by the same amount. In the first half of the day, there was no news background, and the market was busy building an internal corrective wave as part of wave 3 or c. In the second half of the day, the US released GDP data, which hardly anyone can interpret unequivocally in favor of the US currency. It was more negative than positive. However, if this report is a barrel, then at least 30–40% of its volume is honey. In other words, the market had reasons to increase demand for the US currency today.There are several reasons for this:The downward trend section and impulsive downward wave construction are still ongoing for the pair. Therefore, any upward correction is only a local corrective wave.The US GDP report for the first quarter could have been more straightforward, but it still indicates fairly good growth in the US economy. And when was the last time we saw growth in the British economy?The key factor for the market is the Bank of England and the Fed rates, which continue to work in favor of the US currency.The FOMC continues to signal that there should be no talk of monetary policy easing before the end of this year. Such rhetoric is very different from the market's expectations regarding the Bank of England rates, which, according to general opinion, could start to decline as early as July or August. Certainly, there can be no complete certainty about this, as the same market and the same economists were confident in the Fed rate cut in March. But still, the news background is currently in favor of the dollar and sellers.General conclusions. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the level of 1.2039, as wave 3 or c is starting to develop. A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the market's long-awaited readiness to build a downward wave.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward corrective section of the trend continues to develop, and its second wave has taken on an extended form—up to 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level could have led to the start of wave 3 or c construction.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with, often bringing about changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Remember about Stop Loss protective orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound edges higher after soft US GDP

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:46 am

The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger than expected, but the markets could hear the “thud” of today’s […]

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 25th (US session)

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:46 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThere were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, which prevented market entry. Traders are counting on strong US statistics, which could continue the robust growth of the pair observed during the Asian session. Ahead of us are data on initial jobless claims, changes in US GDP volume, the balance of trade in goods, and changes in the volume of pending home sales. Only indicators above economists' forecasts will prompt dollar buyers to act more actively again, despite all the risks of intervention by the Bank of Japan, which has been quiet for a long time. In the case of weak statistics, the USD/JPY pair could be corrected significantly. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 155.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 156.15 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.15, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's growth today will only be possible after very strong US GDP statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.49, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 155.67 and 156.14.Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 155.49 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.12, where I will exit sales and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.67, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 155.49 and 155.12.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. nd remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Spot gold is now up over 1%, and in the process is extending back above its 100H MA

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:45 am

Gold price is seeing a push to the upside with the price now up $28.44 or 1.23% at $2343.68. The high price just reached $2344.89 new high for the day.That move to the upside has now taken the price back above its 100 hour moving average at $2335.13. Stay above that moving average would be more bullish with the 200 hour moving out at $2356.62 as the next key tactical target.The high price of gold reached $2431.78 back on April 12. That is the new all-time high price for the precious metal.The corrective low which stalled at $2291 on Tuesday of this week, bottomed just above its 50% midpoint of the move up from the March 18 below. That midpoint level comes in at $2288.74. Buyers were ready to stick a toe in the water against that midpoint level.Gold remains a safe haven. Reports that Israel strikes on Rafah were intensifying. So although the tension between Iran and Israel has lessened, the focus returns to Gaza and Hamas. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 25th (US session)

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:38 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the price at 1.2488 in the first half came at a moment when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy, as it was not advisable to rely heavily on reports from the UK. I didn't see any other market entry signals. Ahead are the figures for changes in GDP volume for the first quarter of this year in the US, and quite good indicators could bring pressure back to the British pound, leading to a major sell-off. Also, pay attention to data on the balance of trade in goods and changes in the volume of pending home sales. However, the GDP report will be the key event. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenario #1, even despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directional movement.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2522 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.2589 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.2589, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pound growth today can only be expected after weak US GDP data within an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2491, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.2522 and 1.2589.Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2491 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2428, where I will exit sales and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves in the case of strong US reports. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2522, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.2491 and 1.2428.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 25th (US session)

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:33 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European CurrencyThe test of the price at 1.0726 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell. After a short period, several tests of 1.0726 under the same conditions led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling. However, a significant drop in the pair did not occur. Ahead of us are a number of important reports that could turn the market around. We are expecting figures on the number of initial jobless claims in the US, changes in GDP for the first quarter, and the balance of trade in goods. Strong reports, especially those related to GDP, will lead to the strengthening of the pair, so I will act despite the MACD indicator, relying more on the implementation of scenario #1. If the data disappoints and turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, it's a reason to buy the euro further in the uptrend.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0733 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0789. At 1.0789, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak US GDP statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0704, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0733 and 1.0789.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0704 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0645, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the absence of buyer activity near the daily maximum and strong US GDP statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0733, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0704 and 1.0645.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 25th (analysis of morning deals). The pound continued its recovery

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:22 am

In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.2478 and planned to make decisions based on it for market entry. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened there. The breakout at 1.2478 occurred, but we never reached a downward retest, so I was left without entry signals. The technical picture was slightly revised for the second half of the day.To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Strong US GDP data could bring pressure back to risk assets, including the British pound, as this will help the Federal Reserve maintain its tough policy, which recently has allowed the US dollar to demonstrate strength. I plan to act on the decline, as it's uncertain how the market will behave. The formation of a false breakout around the new support at 1.2471, formed at the end of the first half of the day, will provide an entry point for buying with the aim of rising to the resistance at 1.2524, above which we have not managed to break out yet. A breakout and a retest of this range from top to bottom will return the chance of a GBP/USD recovery, leading to new purchases and allowing us to reach 1.2573. If we move above this range, we can talk about a surge towards 1.2621, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level will be a clear signal of a new trend formation. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2471 in the second half of the day, and for this, very good US statistics are needed to exceed economists' forecasts, sellers will regain control of the market, allowing for further significant pair decline along the trend. In this case, I will look for buys around 1.2428. The formation of a false breakout will be a suitable option for market entry. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2383 with a target of a 30-35 point correction within the day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Bears have every chance to continue the decline of the pair, but to do this, they need to break below 1.2471. If US data disappoints, GBP/USD will continue to rise. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the resistance at 1.2524, formed at the end of the first half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakout there will allow us to ensure the presence of large sellers in the market, leading to a decline in GBP/USD to around 1.2471, just below where the moving averages are located. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom to the top of this range will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another selling point with the goal of refreshing 1.2428. The ultimate target will be the minimum at 1.2383, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a GBP/USD rise and the absence of bears at 1.2524 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to continue the correction upwards towards the resistance at 1.2573. I will only initiate sales there on a false breakout. In the absence of activity there as well, I suggest opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2621, expecting a pair rebound downwards by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) as of April 16, there was a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. Pound buyers continue to leave the market, and there are objective reasons for this: released inflation data in the UK and the US indicated the need for further price growth control, which will certainly force central banks to continue their tough stance. Considering that the UK economy suffers much more from all this than the US economy, it's not surprising why pressure on the British pound has sharply increased. New statements from regulator representatives also negatively affected the bullish prospects for the pound. Add to all this the need to maintain a tough stance by the Federal Reserve, and it's hardly worth expecting a strong bullish market in the GBP/USD pair. The latest COT report states that long non-commercial positions decreased by 8,200 to 71,800, while short non-commercial positions increased by 11,433 to 63,181. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 1,334.Indicator Signals:Moving AveragesTrading is above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish market character. Note: The author considers the periods and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2428, will act as support.Description of Indicators:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA - period 12. Slow EMA - period 26. SMA - period 9.Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period - 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD moves lower and tests the 100 hour MA. Finds buyers.

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:21 am

The EURUSD fell after the higher than expected inflation data from the US GDP report. The fall took the price back below the 38.2% retracement 1.0709 and down to test its rising 100 hour moving average at 1.06786. Support buyers leaned against that moving average level, and have pushed the price back to the upside. Getting back above the 38.2% retracement at 1.0709 and staying above that level is needed to increase the bullish bias. Above that level, and a swing area up to 1.07314 would be targeted.The high-priced today stall just ahead of its 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.07425. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF trades to a new high but backs off again on the first test

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:57 am

The USDCHF has moved higher after an initial dip post weaker GDP growth. However, when traders noticed the price data, the price quickly reversed higher. In the process, the high price for the year from yesterday at 0.9152 was breached with a new high reaching 0.91558, but momentum could not be sustained and the price has since rotated modestly lower.If the buyers are to take more control they need to get and stay above 0.9152. Alternatively, support against the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 0.9117 to 0.9120 must hold support if the buyers are to keep control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:37 am

.Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0680; (P) 1.0697; (R1) 1.0716; More… EUR/USD retreated after brief breach of 1.0723 support turned resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 1.0677 support will indicate rejection by 1.0723, and turn bias back to the downside. EUR/USD should then resume larger down trend through 1.0601 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0723 […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9121; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9167; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with breach of 0.9151 resistance. Current rally from 0.8332 should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9085 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:31 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 fibonacci level will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 154.77 resistance turned support will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX day for April 25 with a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:17 am

Kickstart your Forex trading day with a technical look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The US GDP data showed a bad mix with lower growth and higher inflation. That said stocks lower, yields higher, and the US dollar higher as well. That is been reflected in these three major currency pairs. The USDJPY is banging against its highs for the day and moving further away from the 155.00 level. The EURUSD is moving back down toward a swing area between 1.0655 and 1.0675. The GBPUSD is moving lower as well and looks back toward its broken 38.2% retracement of the April trading range at 1.2455 after trading above the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.25126 and failing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:07 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday found resistance near the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. If we get another push higher, the sellers should step in around the 15929 resistance where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the 21 moving average on this timeframe. The 15929 resistance will be key because it should tell us if this was just a pullback before another flush lower or the first move towards a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have some minor support around the 15620 level where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in to position for a break above the 15929 resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:04 am

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower to start the US trading day. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD resumed their runs to the upside (despite holidays in the two countries today). Recall the Australian CPI data was stronger than expected on Wednesday. After a run higher, off the data yesterday in the AUDUSD to the 200-day MA, the price corrected. Today, the price is back up testing the 200-day MA (and 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart) near 0.6530. The NZDUSD is following along. The USDJPY has continued its roam to the upside and once again is making a new high going back to 1990. The pair moved above the 155.00 level yesterday as reports that the BOJ "line in the sand" at the 155.00 level is really not so.Overnight, ING was dismissive of concerns about possible yen intervention saying:Ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting, there will no doubt be more chatter about intervention.However, the speed of the decline in the JPY relative to other currencies is not particularly alarming at this point, and that is probably more important to the BoJ than any particular line in the sand.Bank of America warned that USD/JPY could move to 160 quickly, saying there is little prospect for the Bank of Japan to halt the rise with its communications.BoA says what would be required from the BoJ to firm up the yen:It should acknowledge that policy has been too accommodative,The next hike is as imminent as in June,The terminal rate would be higher than priced by the market.”However, BoA also says that such communication from the Bank is unlikely. The BOJ announces their most recent rate decision on Friday. Today, the US GDP and weekly claims data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is expected at 2.4% for the Advanced report. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow came in at 2.7% for its final guesstimate from its model. They have been very accurate of late. The Initial jobless claims are expected at 215K vs 212K last week. After the close yesterday Meta released earnings that beat expectations but showed higher than expected capital spending ahead and was light marginally on the midpoint of the revenue guidance vs expectations. The stock is getting hammered in pre-market trading today. Below is a list of the major earnings released after the close last night and whether they BEAT or MISSED expectations along with a snapshot of the stock price change in pre-market trading. (at 7:05 AM ET):ServiceNow Inc: Shares down -4.50%Adj. EPS: $3.41, beating expectations of $3.14Revenue: $2.60 billion, beating expectations of $2.59 billionChipotle Mexican Grill Inc: Shares are higher by +3.19%Adj. EPS: $13.37, beating expectations of $11.68Revenue: $2.70 billion, beating expectations of $2.67 billionInternational Business Machines Corp. Shares are down -8.75%.Adj. EPS: $1.68, beating expectations of $1.60Revenue: $14.46 billion, missed expectations of $14.55 billionLam Research Corp: Shares are down -0.89%Adj. EPS: $7.79, beating expectations of $7.30Revenue: $3.79 billion, beating expectations of $3.72 billionMeta Platforms Inc. Shares are tumbling -14.24%.EPS: $4.71, beating expectations of $4.32Revenue: $36.46 billion, beating expectations of $36.16 billionQ2 2024 Revenue View: $36.5-39 billion, The midpoint is lower than the markets estimateFY24 Capex View: $35-40 billion, higher than expectations of $34.73 billionFord Motor Co: Shares are up 2.08%Adj. EPS: $0.49, beating expectations of $0.42Revenue: $42.80 billion, beating expectations of $40.10 billionThere has been a number of earnings released this morning. Caterpillar missed on Revenues which is dragging down the Dow. Below are the summary of their EPS and Revenue numbers including a snapshot of premarket trading levels (at 7:20 AM ET):American Airlines Group Inc (AAL): Share are up 4.17%EPS: -0.34 (Missed, exp. -0.29)Revenue: 12.6 billion (Met, exp. 12.6 billion)Comcast Corp (CMCSA): Shares are up 0.60%EPS: 1.04 (Beat, exp. 0.99)Revenue: 30.06 billion (Beat, exp. 29.81 billion)Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY): Shares are down -1.74%EPS: -4.40 (Beat, exp. -4.44)Revenue: 11.865 billion (Beat, exp. 11.46 billion)Northrop Grumman (NOC): Shares are near unchangedEPS: 6.32 (Beat, exp. 5.79)Revenue: 10.1 billion (Beat, exp. 9.77 billion)Southwest Airlines Co (LUV): Shares are down -8.87%.EPS: -0.36 (Missed, exp. -0.34)Revenue: 6.33 billion (Missed, exp. 6.42 billion)Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL): Shares are up 3.12%EPS: 1.77 (Beat, exp. 1.33)Revenue: 3.7 billion (Beat, exp. 3.69 billion)Caterpillar Inc (CAT): Shares are down -3.99%EPS: 5.60 (Beat, exp. 5.14)Revenue: 15.8 billion (Missed, exp. 16.04 billion)Merck & Co Inc (MRK): Shares are up 1.87%EPS: 2.07 (Beat, exp. 1.88)Revenue: 15.77 billion (Beat, exp. 15.2 billion)Valero Energy Corp (VLO): Shares are down -0.32%EPS: 3.82 (Beat, exp. 3.24)Revenue: 31.8 billion (Missed, exp. 33.09 billion)Dow Inc (DOW): Shares are down -0.67%EPS: 0.56 (Beat, exp. 0.45)Revenue: 10.76 billion (Beat, exp. 10.74 billion)Honeywell International (HON): Shares up up 2.06%EPS: 2.25 (Beat, exp. 2.17)Revenue: 9.1 billion (Beat, exp. 9.03 billion)As if the above is not enough, Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, T-Mobile, Gilead all report after the close today.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.14 or 0.17% at $82.95. At this time yesterday, the price was at $83.02Gold is trading up $14.01 or 0.60% at $2329.19. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2314.95Silver is trading up $0.29 or 1.06% and $27.42.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.08Bitcoin currently trades at $63,829. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,615In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower as markets react to Meta Platforms sharp decline. The three-day streak in the broader indices are at risk today. Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -207 points. Yesterday, the index fell -42.77 points or -0.11% at 38460.93S&P futures are implying a decline of -31.13 points. Yesterday, the index rose 1.06 points or 0.02% at 5071.62Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -158 points. Yesterday, the index rose 16.11 points or 0.10% at 15712.75The European indices are trading mixed ahead of the US open:German DAX, -0.56%France CAC , -0.81%UK FTSE 100, +0.68%Spain's Ibex, +0.20%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.19% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian[…]

Pending Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on the index of pending sales in the US real estate market will be published. The index reflects changes in the number of signed but unpaid contracts for the purchase of housing and is an important indicator of the activity of the sector. It is expected that the indicator will decrease from 1.6% to 0.9%, acting as a catalyst for slowing the upward dynamics of the US dollar quotes. Read more

USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Stabilizes Ahead of Central Bank Rate Decision - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:15 am

Trading of the USD/TRY remained stable during morning trading today, Thursday, with the pair seeing no significant changes throughout the current week.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:01 am

Yesterday, the Dow Jones ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones pulled back into the key resistance level at 38464 where we can also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 37128 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bearish setup around the 38464 resistance and we can also notice that the trend on this timeframe has already shifted to the upside. This might be an early signal for a rally into a new all-time high, but the price will need to break above the resistance to confirm it and trigger an even stronger bullish wave. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a black counter-trendline that is defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to confirm a reversal and increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the all-time high. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Slumps to 34-Year Low - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:00 am

The Japanese yen witnessed further weakness against its counterpart, the US dollar, falling to its lowest level in over three decades.

Gold Analysis: Prices Trying to Hold Uptrend

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:54 am

Gold prices pared losses after weaker-than-expected US business activity data helped bolster the case for Fed rate cuts this year.

USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meeting

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:52 am

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It […]

GBP/USD Analysis: Focus Shifts Cautiously to US Data

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:46 am

According to recent trading activity, GBP/USD has been on the rise, easing some recent selling pressure.

EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Stabilizes Ahead of Data

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:38 am

After gains this week, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to be better protected against further weakness.

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 212.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand. Read more

Gross Domestic Product. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q1 2024 will be published. It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy and takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending and exports. QoQ, the value is expected to adjust from 3.4% to 2.5%, and the deflator — from 1.7% to 3.0%, exerting local pressure on the position of the national currency. Read more

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - We are at a cluster of resistance levels

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:44 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI beating expectations and the Manufacturing PMI missing forecasts and slipping back into contraction. The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the board.The market expects the first rate cut in August.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD pulled back into a cluster of resistance levels around the 1.25 handle where we can find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the red 21 moving average and the trendline. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 handle. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price recently broke through the minor downward trendline and the resistance zone around the 1.24 handle and triggered a bullish move into the 1.25 handle as the buyers piled in more aggressively. What happens around the 1.25 resistance and the major trendline will be key as it will likely decide the direction for the next few weeks. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg higher into the resistance is diverging with the MACD. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a rejection and should give the sellers even more conviction for a move lower. If the price breaks below the black counter-trendline and the support zone around the 1.2460 level, it will be a confirmation for a reversal and will likely trigger a strong bearish move into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Euro rises after German consumer confidence improves

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:15 am

The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism. The index improved to a revised -27.3 in […]

USD/JPY Analysis: Concerns Regarding the BoJ and Long Term Apex Highs

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:29 am

The heights in value now being traded in the USD/JPY are touching levels not seen since May of 1990.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:25 am

Yesterday, the S&P 500 ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is trading near a key resistance level at 5104 where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the relief rally found some resistance around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level where we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. These two levels will be the entry points for the sellers as a break above them should trigger an even stronger rally and invalidate the bearish setup. There’s not much else we can glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 5042 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If the price pulls back to the zone, the buyers will look to buy the dip as they will have a better risk to reward setup to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to confirm a reversal and increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/PKR Analysis: Very Controlled and Mostly Out of Speculative Step

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:25 am

USD/PKR value as of this morning is fractionally higher than yesterday’s apex values

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Pressure Yen at 155

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:50 am

The US dollar rallied significantly during the early hours on Wednesday, but then stalled here at the ¥155 level.

USD/SGD Forecast: Greenback Consolidating into a Bullish Flag Against Sing Dollar

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:40 am

The US dollar has initially fallen against the Singapore dollar during the trading session on Wednesday but continues to see plenty of support near the 1.36 level.

Silver Forecast: Continues to Show Signs of Support

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:34 am

Silver went back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday.

CHF/JPY Forecast: Battle of the Funding Currencies Continues

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:30 am

CHF and JPY battle as top Forex funding currencies, both weak.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro Continues to Threaten a Move Higher Against Pound

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:25 am

We have recently seen a breakout and now we are looking at a retest.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Launches Against Canadian Dollar

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:20 am

The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Wednesday against the Canadian dollar, as we have seen the 1.3650 level offer support.

Bitcoin Forecast: Continues to Sit Still on Wednesday

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:12 am

Bitcoin initially did rally a little bit during the trading session on Wednesday.

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:11 am

Gold eventually erased the gains from the geopolitical events between Israel and Iran and found support around a key trendline. The price started to consolidate as the market awaits some new catalyst to push it in either direction. This week has been pretty empty on the data front and there was no Fedspeak as the FOMC is in the blackout period. We did get the latest US PMIs though and they missed expectations across the board with some worrying commentary around the labour market. Interestingly, it didn’t spark a rally in Gold, so the market might want to see some more data before trusting the PMIs. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold eventually pulled back into the key trendline where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 2150 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got stuck in some consolidation around the trendline with a strong resistance around the 2330 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The sellers are clearly stepping in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a continuation of the downward trend. The buyers will need to break above the resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the tight range between the 2310 support and the 2330 resistance. We can also see that we have a downward trendline adding confluence to the resistance zone. A breakout to the upside will be significant and will likely trigger a stronger bullish move. Conversely, a breakout to the downside should see the bearish momentum increasing and pushing the market into the next support around the 2150 level. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost.See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/ZAR Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Pressure Resistance Against South African Rand

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:10 am

The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to threaten a major resistance barrier in the form of 19.25 ZAR.

GBP/JPY Forex Signal: Dragon Looks Ready to Roar

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:04 am

The British pound initially pulled back against the Japanese yen during early hours on Wednesday, as we continued to threaten a major breakout.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:01 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More… USD/JPY’s rally accelerates today and breaks through 155.20 fibonacci level. There is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. For now, […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:57 pm

.Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0680; (P) 1.0697; (R1) 1.0716; More… Immediate focus is now on 1.0723 support turned resistance. Rejection from there, followed by break of 1.0677 minor support, will retain near term bearishness. Retest of 1.0601 low would be seen next. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0723 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:53 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… Near term outlook in GBP/USD remains bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance. holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 will bring stronger rally to 55 D […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:50 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9121; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9167; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6474; (P) 0.6502; (R1) 0.6526; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6440 minor support will […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Recovery Has a Room to Run

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:31 pm

The GBP/USD pair has staged a strong comeback from its lowest point this week to a high of 1.2465, its highest swing since Thursday last week.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Chart Pattern Points to a Bearish Breakout

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:07 pm

The EUR/USD pair wavered on Thursday morning ahead of the crucial US GDP and inflation numbers.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Yesterday, the Russell 2000 ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 eventually pulled back into the key resistance zone around the 2020 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a break below the 1920 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new cycle high. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the downward trendline where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This should give the sellers even more conviction to pile in around these level with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above the trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and turn the trend around. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the price breaking out of the descending wedge and running into the trendline. The sellers will also need to watch out for a spike above the trendline today as we get some market moving US data. If the price were to eventually leave behind a fakeout, that would be an even stronger signal for a drop into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Recovery Hits a Key Resistance

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:56 pm

Bitcoin pulled back in the overnight session as the recent recovery faded.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: More Upside Ahead of US PCE Data

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:46 pm

The AUD/USD pair retreated slightly as traders refocused on the upcoming US GDP and PCE economic numbers.

Gfk Group Consumer Confidence Survey. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the data on GfK Group Consumer Confidence for May are due in Germany. The indicator measures the degree of confidence in the strength of the economy and is a leading indicator for consumer spending. The negative dynamics is expected to slow down from -27.4 points to -25.9 points, which will still continue to put pressure on the euro exchange rate. Read more

GBPUSD ping pongs between technical levels

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:43 am

In the morning kickstart video, I spoke to the support near the 200 hour MA and the swing area, and if that level held, the need to get and stay above the 38.2% of the April trading range. Well those levels have defined the range in the US session (give or take a couple pips on support and resistance targets. The price is ping ponging. The good news is that with support holding and resistance doing its thing, it increases each extremes importance. That is, when the next shove comes (higher or lower), there should be momentum in the direction of the break. So we can lament the ups and downs, but take solace in the hopes that the next break leads to a run. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian dollar dips as retail sales fall

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:08 am

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday after a five-day winning streak in which it gained 1.1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3703, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales down in February Canadian consumers are holding tight on the purse strings as spending has been weak in the first quarter. […]

S&P index gives up gains. Down on the day.

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:40 am

The S&P index has given up its gains and traded in negative territory. At session highs the price change was up 18.92 points. The low price just reached -14.78 points on a day. At session lows, the price tested a swing level going back to March and last week near 5056.92. Support buyers came in near that level on the first test. If the level can hold support, a rotation back to the upside would be anticipated.On the top side, the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) is near the 50% midpoint of the corrective move to the downside near 5108. Going forward, getting back above that moving average and midpoint level is needed to give the buyers more confidence.On the downside breaking below the swing level would have traders targeting the 50-hour moving average (black moving average line) at 5035.12. Moving below that increases the bearish bias with a retest of the low price from last Friday as the next target.The NASDAQ index is holding onto gains of a around 29 points or 0.18%. The Russell 2000 is lower by -12.46 points or -0.62%. Yields are higher today which is putting a damper on the small-cap sector. 2-year yield 4.941%, +3.6 basis points5-year yield 4.672%, +5.1 basis points10 year 4.658%, +6.0 basis points30 year 4.788%, +6.5 basis points.At 1 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury will auction off five-year notes. Yesterday the treasury auctioned off a record amount of two-year notes with the demand (not stellar but good). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Higher Australian CPI sent the AUDUSD higher, but the 200-day MA stalled the rally.

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:19 am

The AUDUSD pushed to the upside today after higher than expected CPI data, put the kabosh on a rate cut soon. However, after running toward the 200-day MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 0.6330, the buyers turned to sellers and has corrected the gains. The subsequent fall has taken the price down toward a swing area between 0.64769 and 0.64864. The low price stalled just ahead of the high of that swing area. If that level can hold support, and the price can get back above its 50% midpoint of the April trading range and 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6521, the buyers can resume their run to - and potentially through - the 200 day moving average. The above video outlines the key levels and explains the risks and the targets going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY climbs above 155.00 again as buyers remain in control

Apr 24, 2024 | 07:56 am

The USDJPY is taking another run above the 155.00 level. The first break reached up to 155.164, but then rotated quiicly to 154.76 minutes later. The price has chopped back higher and is now above the 155.00 level again as buyers continue to push. The high just reached 155.10.The good news for the buyer is although the move higher is slow and choppy, the corrections lower have been able to hold support near the rising 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart above). Those support bounces help to increase the moving average's importance going forward. Staying above the 100 hour MA and the buyers are more in control. Putting it another way, the sellers after the move to the upside have to prove that they can take back control. Not being able to get below the 100-day moving average (and then the 200-hour moving average currently at 154.413) is NOT taking back control. Watch the 100-hour MA as a short-term barometer for the USDJPY pair. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF buyers try to keep the short term bias in their favor.

Apr 24, 2024 | 07:24 am

The USDCHF pushed higher earlier in the day, and extended above the prior high from April 15 at 0.91514, but only to a NEW high of 0.91525 before rotating back to the downside.The fall took the priCe back toward its rising 200 hour moving average at 0.9116 and its 100 hour moving average at 0.91109, but the price could not move below those levels and has since rotated back toward 0.9130.Are the buyers trying to keep that short-term bias in their favor? Staying above those hourly moving averages does just that. However, getting above the 0.9152 area is still needed to break the pair to the upside and give the buyers more confidence. If done, traders would target the 50% of the range since the October 2022 high. That level comes in at 0.92395. That high also corresponds roughly with the high price from October 2023.So buyers are making a play despite the corrective move lower today. Can the momentum increase to the upside or will the ceiling near 0.9252 keep the battle going? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/USD extends gains as inflation higher than expected

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:42 am

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation dips less than forecast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in […]

Crude oil imports. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction is expected from the current 2.735M barrels to 1.700M barrels, supporting oil quotes. Read more

Durable goods orders. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the United States, March data on the volume of orders for durable goods with a service life of more than three years is due. The indicator is a leading indicator of industrial activity. The total volume of orders in March may adjust from 1.3% to 2.5%, and the core volume will be consolidated at 0.3%, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Retail sales. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), February data on retail sales will be presented in Canada. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and affects gross domestic product (GDP). The rate may adjust from −0.3% to 0.1% in February, and the core value from 0.5% to 0.0%, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Euro edges lower despite stronger German business confidence

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:19 am

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. Germany shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 […]

Gold Technical: Is the bull run over after its worst daily decline in 2 years?

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:37 am

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% […]

Business expectations index. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April business expectations index in Germany will be published, which measures business sentiment and business conditions in the country through a survey of representatives of 7.0K companies. A decrease is predicted from 87.5 points to 84.7 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

IFO business climate. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April German business climate index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO), based on a survey of managers of 7.0K enterprises in the manufacturing industry, construction sector, wholesale and retail trade, will be published. The value may increase from 87.8 points to 88.9 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index in New Zealand will be published – the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It affects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy decisions. The figure may rise from 0.6% to 0.8% QoQ and fall from 4.1% to 3.4% YoY. Read more

Trade balance. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish March data on the trade balance – an indicator that records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The negative trend is likely to continue from the current –218.0M New Zealand dollars to –505.0M New Zealand dollars MoM, putting pressure on the national currency. Read more

API weekly crude oil stock. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The last time, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.090M barrels of crude oil, and the trend continuation may put pressure on oil prices. Read more

New home sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on home sales on the primary market. The indicator records the number of new residential buildings sold during the past month and is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may increase from 662.0K to 668.0K, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. USA 15:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:45 am

At 15:45 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the US industry and services sector will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. Manufacturing PMI may change from 51.9 points to 52.0 points and for the services PMI from 51.7 points to 52.0 points. Read more

Building permits. USA, 14:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:00 am

At 14:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the American government for the construction of real estate, being one of the most important sector indicators. The value may change from 1.524M to 1.458M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The manufacturing PMI may consolidate at 50.3 points, services PMI may drop from 53.1 points to 53.0 points, and the composite PMI may increase from 52.8 points to 52.9 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU countries will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 46.1 points to 46.5 points, the services PMI from 51.5 points to 51.8 points, and the composite PMI change from 50.3 points to 49.7 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. Germany, 09:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:30 pm

At 09:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Germany will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 41.9 points to 42.8 points, the services PMI from 50.1 points to 50.6 points, and the composite PMI may change from 47.7 points to 47.0 points. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOJ, AU inflation, US PCE and US Magnificent 7 stocks earnings in the focus

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:29 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation […]

Manufacturing and service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Japan will be published. They reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may correct from 48.2 points to 48.0 points, and the services PMI from 54.1 points to 54.9 points. Read more

Consumer Confidence. EU, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index will be published in the Eurozone. The indicator is calculated based on a survey of 2.3K households that evaluate the prospects for the economy. This is a leading indicator for consumer spending, its high values indicate consumer optimism, and vice versa. If in April the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -14.9 points, this will put pressure on the position of the European currency. Read more

SPX 500: How low can the correction go?

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:12 am

The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day moving average put its medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy. The current multi-week […]

Raw Materials Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the March commodity price index will be published in Canada. Unlike the index of prices for manufactured goods, this indicator includes purchase items that are not produced in the country, and all costs incurred by the buyer of raw materials, including the goods themselves, transportation costs, net taxes paid, customs duties, are involved in its calculation. If the value continues to show negative dynamics from 2.1% MoM and from -4.7% YoY, this will act as a driver of the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Read more

New Housing Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the new housing price index for March will be published in Canada; it allows analyzing the state of the national real estate market and assessing the impact of dynamics on the economy as a whole. The value is likely to be fixed at 0.1%, pushing the Canadian dollar quotes to an uptrend. Read more

Industrial Orders Index from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI). UK, 12:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:00 am

At 12:00 (GMT+2), April data on the index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI) will be published in the UK. It is calculated on the basis of a survey of representatives of leading British enterprises and is an important indicator of the state of British business. If the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -18.0 points, this may put pressure on the pound. Read more

Consumer Confidence. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), Turkey will publish April data on the consumer confidence index, reflecting the degree of confidence in the strength of the national economy. If the indicator continues its positive dynamics from the current 79.4 points, this may support the lira's position. Read more

Euro edges higher, ECB eyes June cut

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:14 am

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest […]

USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI eases

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:54 am

The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down […]

GBP/USD edges higher after flat retail sales

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%. Fuel sales were […]

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]

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