Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

2-for-1: A technical look at the AUDUSD and NZDUSD as the USD gets bid

May 10, 2024 | 08:19 am

The University of Michigan inflation expectation data sent the US dollar higher and the AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs lower. Those moves to the downside, extended each pair to new session Lois, and in the process, each are also testing their 100-hour moving averages. Both also have found some risk-focused buyers leaning against the moving average level.If the buyers are able to hold that support, call off the bearish dogs. The buyers hold the technical bias. Conversely, if the levels are broken, it would shift the bias more in favor of the sellers at least in the short term.This video outlines the levels and the technicals in play. Key support level for both major currency pairs being tested. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. Previously, it dropped to 499 units, acting as a driver for the growth of oil prices. Read more

EURUSD finds willing sellers against its 50% midpoint and 200 day MA

May 10, 2024 | 07:22 am

The EURUSD moved higher in the early US session reaching a new intraday high of 1.07895. That got within a paper so of the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March 2024 high to the April 2024 low at 1.07906. The 200 day moving averages just above that level.The subsequent fall held by the higher University of Michigan inflation expectation data as the price currently trading at 1.0768. The low for the day reached 1.07652. The 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.0761.The NASDAQ index did dip back into negative territory giving up a gain of 91.13 points after the higher inflation expectations. It currently is up 10.37 points or 0.06%. The S&P index remains in positive territory with the low at +8.32 points. The index is currently up 11.42 points or 0.22%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 06:21 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0742; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0803; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0742) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 06:18 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2471; (P) 1.2499; (R1) 1.2552; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. Strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2445 will indicate that this rebound […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for April 10 w/a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

May 10, 2024 | 06:17 am

In the kickstart video for April 10, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In this report, I also take a quick look at the USDCAD after it's stronger than expected April jobs report which showed a gain of 90.4K - the largest increase since January 2023.The EURSUD was trading in a narrow 15 pip trading range coming into the US session, and has extended to the downside. However, the 100-day moving average at 1.07607 remains as a level that would need to get broken to increase the bearish bias. On the top side, is strong resistance at the 200 day moving average and 50% midpoint of the move down from the March high. That level comes in at 1.07906.The USDJPY got within "spitting distance" of its 200 hour moving average support target in the Asian session, and found willing buyers against that level (the low reached 155.25 with the moving average at 155.21 at the time). The subsequent rise has now taken the price back up to 155.78. On the top side looms the high from yesterday's trade at 155.95. Above that, the 50% of the move down from the April high (and highest level going back to 1990) comes in at at 156.029. That area is a key level for both buyers and sellers going forward.The GBPUSD moved higher in the European session, but found willing sellers ahead of its key 200-day moving average at 1.25421 (the high price reach 125.40 just two pips short of that level). The subsequent move to the downside has the pair testing the low of a cluster of moving averages near 1.2517. Getting below that level would tilt the bias more to the downside for today and going into next week.Finally, the USDCAD has moved lower after it's stronger than expected Canadian jobs report. The move lower took price below its 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart at 1.3665. That is now resistance (stay below keeps the sellers in control). On the downside, the low price stalled at the April 26 and April 29 low at 1.3632. Going forward, it would take a move below that level to increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward the low price from last week at 1.36096. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 06:16 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9042; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9087; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9088) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9004) will bring deeper fall to […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 05:53 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.12; (P) 155.54; (R1) 155.91; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

NZ dollar dips as Manufacturing PMI contracts

May 10, 2024 | 05:24 am

The New Zealand dollar is lower on Friday. NZD/USD is down 0.31% on the day, trading at 0.6015 in the European session at the time of writing. New Zealand manufacturing has been in a prolonged slump and the April Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction, with a reading of 48.9, up from 47.1 in March. The […]

The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 10, 2024 | 05:08 am

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is the mostly but modestly stronger with gains vs all the major currencies in the morning snapshot. Having said that, the EURUSD only has a 15 pip up and down trading range (vs 58 pip average over the last month of trading), USDCAD is in a 19 pip trading range (vs 69 pip average over the last month of trading), USDCHF only 20 pips (vs 54 average), AUDUSD 24 pips (vs 56 pips) and NZDUSD 26 pips (vs 50 pip average). The USDJPY has a 52 pip range, but that is well short of the recent average of 153 pip average (thanks to some intervention by the BOJ along the way). The point is, the price action is not that great to start the last day of the US session this week. Coming into the day, BOEs Huw Pill spoke/is speaking and highlighted the significance of focusing on the persistent components of inflation, beyond just the headline rate. Pill noted that the more enduring parts of inflation are showing signs of a decline. He emphasized that the central bank might consider reducing the bank rate once there is sufficient evidence that these persistent inflation elements are on a downward trajectory. Pill also cautioned that concentrating solely on the upcoming Bank of England meeting would be somewhat misguided, underscoring the importance of looking at the underlying factors of inflation.The minutes from the ECB's April 2024 policy meeting were just released and said that members are considering the possibility of easing monetary policy as early as the June meeting, contingent upon receiving additional evidence that supports the medium-term inflation outlook projected in March. Although a few members were already confident enough to advocate for a reduction in policy rates at the current meeting, there was a broad consensus to wait for more substantial data. This decision reflects a balanced view of the risks between prematurely lowering rates and potentially missing the inflation target, which could lead to a significant downturn in economic activity. The discussions emphasized the importance of a data-dependent approach, cautioning against overreliance on any single data point given the likely volatility in economic indicators. The ECB aims to maintain flexibility in its decisions and has successfully communicated its strategies to the markets, which are now anticipating the possibility of a rate cut in June.Today the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment will be released at 10 AM PT with expectations of 76.0 versus 77.2 last month. The current conditions came in at 79.0 last month while the expectations was at 76.0 with expectations of 75.0 this month.Also on the calendar today will be Canada's employment statistics which will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectations are for Employment change of 18.0K versus -2.2K last month. Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.2% from 6.1%. Full-time employment last month came in at -0.7K Part-time employment fell by -1.6K. Participation rate came in at 65.3 last month. On the Fed Speak calendar today:9 AM ET Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on "Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators" before the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention10 AM ET Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference1 PM ET Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari introduces Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and moderator Steve Liesman of CNBC in a question-and-answer session before Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon1:30 PM ET Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives commencement speech before the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation ceremony. Barr is in charge of regulation and supervision and may not speak on policy directlyIn geopolitical news, the below tweet (or X) sums it up but the situation is still fluid of course:A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins has oil higher, gold higher and bitcoin higher.Crude oil is trading up $0.62 or 0.79% at $79.88. At this time yesterday, the price was at $79.61Gold is trading up 27.57 points or 1.18% at $2373.07. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2315.90Silver is trading up $0.29 or 1.02% at $28.60. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.71.Bitcoin currently trades at $63,021. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $61,120In the premarket, the Dow is working on its eighth day in a row higher. The S&P and Nasdaq has had a more choppy trading environment but are coming off gains from yesterday. All the major indices are also higher for the week. A summary of the indices as implied by futures are currently showing: Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 107 points or 0.20%. Yesterday, the index rose 331.37 points or 0.85% at 39387.77. The Dow Industrial Average average is up 1.84% this week.S&P futures are implying a gain of 15.92 points or 0.20%. Yesterday the index rose 26.41 points or 0.51% at 5214.07. The S&P index is up 1.68% coming into the day.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 71 points or 0.36%. Yesterday the index rose 43.51 points or 0.27% at 16346.26. The NASDAQ index is up 1.18% this week.European stock indices are trading higher. German, France and UK indices are on pace to close at a record levels. France is on pace to join the other two indices today:German DAX, +0.54%. The German DAX is up 4.38% this week the largest gain since November 2023.France CAC , +0.67%. The index is up 3.59% this week. Matt is on pace for the largest gain since 3.71% in October 2023. At current levels the CAC is on pace to close at a record level.UK FTSE 100, 0.78%. The index is up 2.86% this week and trading at a new record high.Spain's Ibex, +0.64%. The index is up 2.41% this week.Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.04% (delayed 10 minutes). The index[…]

Michigan consumer sentiment. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish May data on changes in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The indicator is calculated monthly based on a telephone survey of at least 500 American households and records consumer spending that is part of economic activity. The value may decrease from 77.2 points to 76.3 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Employment changes. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April employment data is due in Canada. This indicator records changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. It may change from −2.2K to 20.9K, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Unemployment rate. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April data on the unemployment rate is due in Canada. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed citizens over 18 years to the total working-age population. The figure may rise from 6.1% to 6.2%. Read more

USDCAD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Canadian jobs data

May 10, 2024 | 03:02 am

The USD weakened across the board yesterday following a notable miss in the US initial claims data as that added some more pressure on the USD with the market weighing the possibility that the labour market could weaken fast enough in the next months to justify more rate cuts than expected. Overall though, the price action has been rangebound this week as the lack of key catalysts and the waiting for the US CPI report kept the market at bay.The CAD, on the other hand, has been under pressure in the first part of the week maybe due to the sustained weakness in crude oil prices and expectations building for the BoC to cut rates in June, although the employment data today and the Canadian CPI report on May 21st will likely decide if the BoC will wait until July or proceed with a cut already in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD bounced from the key support zone around the 1.36 handle where we can also find the confluence with the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below that support should see the sellers gaining more conviction and increasing the bearish momentum into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, keep on stepping in around these levels to position for a rally back into the cycle highs around the 1.39 handle. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the upward trendline got breached recently with the sellers piling in to extend the drop into the 1.36 support. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 1.37 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the 1.3785 level. The red lines marked on the chart define the average daily range of the pair, which is generally the maximum movement we can get on any given day barring major surprises in the market.Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the Canadian labour market report and the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Weak figures across the board for the Canadian jobs data should raise the probabilities for a rate cut in June, although there’s not much more to price in. In fact, the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next Wednesday as that will likely have a much bigger and lasting impact on the pair. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Continues to See Upward Pressure - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 03:00 am

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as we have seen the weekly Unemployment Claims in the United States surprise to the upside.

Hang Seng Index: Oversold-led positive animal spirits overshadowed currency war risk

May 10, 2024 | 02:37 am

The Hang Seng Index has transformed into a medium-term uptrend phase with key support at 17,110. Momentum factor is now taking a front seat over fundamentals such as the deflationary risk spiral. A softer than-expected China CPI and PPI prints for April may further erode consumer confidence. A yuan devaluation cannot be ruled out to […]

Canadian dollar quiet ahead of jobs data

May 10, 2024 | 02:25 am

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday. USD/CAD is up 0.03%, trading at 1.3680 in the European session at the time of writing. Canada’s job growth expected to rebound Canada releases the April employment report later today. The economy shed 2200 jobs in March, a shocking figure as the market forecast stood at a […]

Silver Forex Signal: Continues to See Upward Pressure - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:15 am

Silver rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $27.50 level at one point, only before it turned around to show signs of exhaustion.

Dax Forecast: Powers Higher to Reach New Highs - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:10 am

The DAX in Germany took off to the upside during the trading session on Thursday as we have now broken above the crucial €18,500 level.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact

May 10, 2024 | 02:06 am

The USD weakened across the board yesterday following a notable miss in the US initial claims data as that added some more pressure on the USD with the market weighing the possibility that the labour market could weaken fast enough in the next months to justify more rate cuts than expected. Overall though, the price action has been rangebound this week as the lack of key catalysts and the waiting for the US CPI report kept the market at bay.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations. The only thing that can change the trend at the moment is much weaker US data.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to run to the upside as the lack of fundamental support and the failure of the Japanese interventions is giving the buyers enough conviction to keep bidding the pair towards the key 160.00 level. That’s where we will likely see the sellers stepping in with more conviction to position for a drop back into the trendline. For the time being, the buyers remain in control.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the next resistance to watch will be the 156.28 level as a break to the upside should see the buyers increasing the bullish momentum into the next resistance around the 158.00 handle. The target remains the 160.00 handle and unless we get a downside surprise in the US inflation figures next week, we will likely see the pair continuing to drift higher. Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, so the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next Wednesday.See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Forecast: British Pound Continues to Rally Against Yen Despite Bank of England - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:05 am

The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Thursday against the Japanese yen but has since turned around despite the fact that there are members at the Bank of England that have voted to cut rates.

USD/ILS Forecast: Greenback Climbs Against Israeli Shekel - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:00 am

The US dollar has rallied slightly during the trading session on Thursday against the Israeli shekel, as the overall action over the last couple of months have suggested a bit of a “bullish flag” setting up.

British pound listless despite strong GDP

May 10, 2024 | 01:18 am

The British pound is drifting on Friday. GBP/USD is up 0.05%, trading at 1.2531 in the European session at the time of writing. UK GDP rises 0.6% The British economy grew by 0.6% q/q in the first quarter, higher than the market estimate of 0.4% and above the Q4 2023 decline of 0.3%. This marks […]

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:49 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0742; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0803; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0741) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2471; (P) 1.2499; (R1) 1.2552; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point, as it recovered after dipping to 1.2445. Strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:42 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9042; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9087; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9091) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9004) will bring […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:40 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.12; (P) 155.54; (R1) 155.91; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

May 9, 2024 | 23:32 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6583; (P) 0.6603; (R1) 0.6639; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6570) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:28 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3651; (P) 1.3699; (R1) 1.3723; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9754; (P) 0.9764; (R1) 0.9778; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:23 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.00; (P) 167.38; (R1) 168.01; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 164.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58. Further rise would be seen to 168.64 resistance. On the downside, below 165.63 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:21 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.08; (P) 194.48; (R1) 195.11; More.. GBP/JPY’s rebound from 191.34 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. This rebound is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Further rise would be seen back to 197.40 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 193.82 minor support will […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:17 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6260; (P) 1.6307; (R1) 1.6335; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 will turn bias back to the downside to 1.6127 […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 22:34 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8593; (P) 0.8607; (R1) 0.8623; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays mildly on the upside at this point, and further rally could be seen to 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from 0.8497 low. On the downside, below 0.8585 minor support will argue that rebound from 0.8529 has […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Unemployment rate. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), March unemployment data is due in Turkey. This indicator records all persons aged 15 years and older who were not employed during the reporting period, who used at least one of the job search channels in the last three months, as well as citizens who are already employed or have become self-employed but are awaiting the registration of necessary documents. It may grow from 8.7%, putting pressure on the lira. Read more

Manufacturing production. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on manufacturing output from the UK National Statistical Office (ONS) is due – one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the sector. It may change from 1.2% to −0.5% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.1% YoY, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Industrial production. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production is due in the UK. The indicator records changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 1.4% to 0.6% YoY and from 1.1% to –0.5% MoM. Read more

Trade balance. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in the UK. This indicator reflects the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. It may change from –14.21B pounds to –14.50B pounds, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Gross domestic product. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), Q1 data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) is due – the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, taking into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may consolidate at 0.1% MoM and increase from −0.3% to 0.4% QoQ. Read more

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Testing Support Against Swiss Franc

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The pound initially shot higher during the early hours on Thursday but has since fallen to test the 50 day EMA.

USD/ZAR Forecast: USD Looking for Momentum from Support Level Against Rand

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the early hours on Thursday, but then pulled back to reach the 18.50 level.

BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Continues to Drift Toward Support

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Bitcoin pulled back just a little bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to look at the $60,000 level as a potential support level.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Continues to Grind Sideways

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The Nasdaq 100 pulled back slightly during the early hours on Thursday, but at this point in time, it looks like a market that's just trying to digest some of the massive gains that we had seen so far.

Gold Forecast: Gold Continues to Look for Buyers in a Support Range

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Gold has been somewhat choppy during the early hours on Thursday, which quite frankly is a repeat of the last several days in a row.

Long list of oil support: risk on, technical, inventory, Mid East, China, restocking

May 9, 2024 | 15:14 pm

A note from ANZ outlines a number of factors supporting the price, which inched a little higher on Thursday:risk on tonetechnicals100-day moving average helped stem the flow of selling in WTI, nine-day relative strength index also showing the recent selloff was overdonesentiment buoyed by this week’s US inventory report, stockpiles fell according to EIA dataongoing tensions in the Middle EastChina’s crude oil imports rose 5.5% y/y on strong gains in road and air trafficRestocking ahead of the northern summer driving season and increased export quota for oil products I stuck those indies on the chart, you can do the same here: This chart is from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Household expenditure. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), March data on household spending is due in Japan. The indicator records the monthly change in household spending adjusted for inflation and is an important indicator of economic growth. It may correct from –0.5% to –2.3% YoY and from 1.4% to –0.3% MoM, putting pressure on the yen. Read more

GBPUSD stretches to a new high but running into 100/200 hour MA and retracement

May 9, 2024 | 11:04 am

The GBPUSD has once again stretched higher after a brief correction and printed a new high at 1.25232, but once again is finding risk-focused sellers against the 100/200 hour MAs and the 38.2% of the move down from the March 2024 high. Those levels come near 1.25255. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds rates

May 9, 2024 | 08:35 am

The British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. Bank of England maintains rate at 5.25% The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The […]

AUDUSD and NZDUSD run higher w/the lower dollar. Pairs moving toward the next targets.

May 9, 2024 | 08:11 am

Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are moving higher on the general USD selling after the weaker than expected initial jobless claims.For the AUDUSD, that move has taken the price away from its 100-day moving average at 0.6574, and toward its 50% midpoint of the move down from the end of December high to the April low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66159. Above that is a key swing area ceiling between 0.6635 and 0.6648. That ceiling area has held resistance since March 12. Needless to say, it represents a key area on more upside momentum for the AUDUSD.For the NZDUSD, it's run to the upside started after basing today at the 38.2% retracement of the last move down from the March double top. That retracement level came in at 0.59905. The NZDUSD is now moving toward its next key swing area between 0.6023 and 0.6037. Within that area is the 50% midpoint of the same move lower (from the large high) and the 200-day moving average. Getting above that area and staying above, would open the door for further upside potential for the pair.In the video above I take a look at both these currency pairs and outline those key levels in play and the roadmap ahead for traders. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZ dollar rises ahead of Manufacturing PMI

May 9, 2024 | 07:52 am

The New Zealand dollar has made gains on Thursday. NZD/USD is up 0.33% on the day, trading at 0.6024 in the North American session at the time of writing. New Zealand manufacturing has been in the doldrums and the April manufacturing PMI, which will be released on Friday, is expected to show contraction, with a […]

EURUSD runs higher. USD move to the downside continues

May 9, 2024 | 07:41 am

The USD is coming under increasing pressure. The US initial jobless claims came in weaker and that started the decline. For the EURUSD, it is moving above a technical area defined by a swing area between 1.0752 and 1.0756 (see chart above). The price is also running away from its 100-hour moving average at 1.07579. The high price has just reached 1.07796.The next key target area comes against the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March high. That level comes in at 1.07906. Just above that level is the 200-day moving average at 1.0792. Getting above those levels - and staying above - would shift the buyers more to the upside. On the unemployment date last week, the price did move above those levels only to rotate back below shortly thereafter. Hence, the importance of the level going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD moves to a new low and trades below cluster of MAs

May 9, 2024 | 07:24 am

The USDCAD is breaking below a cluster of MAs including the 100 and 200-hour moving averages and the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. Those levels come between 1.3700 and 1.37102. If the price, stays below those MAs, the bias shifts more to the sellers at least in the short term for the pair. Overall, the last 14 or so days has seen the price trade within a 1.3615 to 1.3782 range. The ups and downs (see chart below) has converged the MAs in the center of that range. As a result, it represents the barometer for bullish above, and bearish below.See the video above for the details of the technical roadmap for the USDCAD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0736; (P) 1.0747; (R1) 1.0759; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0733) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:34 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.76; (P) 155.22; (R1) 155.96; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as this point. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9071; (P) 0.9083; (R1) 0.9093; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9096) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9000) will bring deeper fall to […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 9 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 9, 2024 | 06:21 am

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged but the vote of 7-2 with two dissenters for interest rate cuts and Gov. Bailey's assertion that the market may be under pricing the end of year rate cut projection initially sent the GBPUSD lower, however failure to extend to the downside led to shorts covering in volatile trading. What next?IN this Kickstart video, I take a look at the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play for those currency pairs given the early up and down (or down and up) volatility. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:04 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2468; (P) 1.2497; (R1) 1.2525; More… GBP/USD breached 1.2471 support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2471 will […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

The USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 9, 2024 | 05:03 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest (snapshot before the BOE press conference). The GBP is the weakest after the Bank of England (BoE) opted to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%, but with a less expected 7-2 vote outcome, as Ramsden joined Dhingra in advocating for a 25 basis point cut. This decision underscores the BoE's repeated guidance that monetary policy should remain restrictive for a considerable duration to avert the risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target, but with a dovish tilt. BoE Governor Bailey comments acknowledged the positive developments regarding inflation but indicated that further evidence of sustained low inflation is required before considering a rate reduction. He remains optimistic about the potential for future cuts. The BoE's stance will continue to be restrictive, even with a potential rate cut, as they closely monitor economic indicators. Although current data show progress, the bank believes it is premature to reduce interest rates and awaits more conclusive proof that inflation rates will remain low. The BoE also noted an increasing divergence in economic demand between the US and Europe, which could lead to divergent monetary policies, potentially impacting foreign exchange markets.Inflation and growth forecasts showed lower inflation projections with higher growth. INFLATION FORECASTS:2024: 2.50%, previously 2.75%2025: 2.25%, previously 2.50%2026: 1.50%, previously 2.00%GROWTH FORECASTS:2024: 0.5%, previously 0.25%2025: 1.0%, previously 0.75%2026: 1.25%, previously 1.0%In the early comments from BOEs Bailey in his press conferenc, he says that the BOE may need to cut rates more than what the market currently perceives. He adds:Rate Cuts Possibility: Bailey indicates that it might be necessary to cut rates more significantly than what is currently expected by market rates, though there are no preconceived plans about the extent and speed of these cuts.Future Rate Cuts: He suggests that it is likely that the Bank Rate will be reduced over the coming quarters.Economic Effects on Wages and Prices: Bailey expects the secondary effects on domestic wages and prices to diminish slightly faster than previously thought.Uncertainty About June Rate Change: He mentions that a change in the Bank Rate in June is neither completely dismissed nor certain.Inflation and Wages Caution: Recent data showing higher than expected wage and services inflation since February should prompt careful consideration, although these should not be overly interpreted.Normalization of Economic Conditions: The lack of surprising data is seen as an indicator that the economy is moving towards more normal conditions.The market were projecting -55 bps in cuts by the end of the year. Will that move toward 3 cuts?In geopolitical news, Hamas delegation has left Cairo and insists on the peace proposal that Israel rejected. The weekly US initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of 215K versus 208K last week. Continuing claims are expected at 1.785M vs 1.774M estimate.At 1 PM, the coupon auction for the week will conclude with the sale of 30-year bonds. Both the 3 and 10-year issues were met with close to average results for the major auction components - not bad, not great as borrowing needs increase with deficits. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.61 or 0.78% at $79.61. At this time yesterday, the price was at $77.56 Gold is trading up $7.32 or 0.32% at $2315.90. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2313.58Silver is trading up $0.38 or 1.41% at $27.71. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.22.Bitcoin currently trades at $61,120. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,357In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower after mixed results yesterday:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -77 points. Yesterday, the index rose 172.13 points or 0.44%S&P futures are implying a decline of -10.92 points yesterday, the S&P index closed unchanged at 5187.66Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -39.76 points. Yesterday the index fell -29.80 points or -0.18% at 16302.76.European stock indices are trading mixed. German and UK indices are on pace to close at a record level:German DAX, +0.64%France CAC , +0.18%UK FTSE 100, +0.37%Spain's Ibex, -1.01%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.06% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed/higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.34%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.83%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.22%Australia S&P/ASX index, -1.06%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher. Today the U.S. Treasury will auction off 30-year notes. Earlier this week, the 3- year note 10-year notes were auctioned with average (10 year) to slightly better than average (3-year) demand. 2-year yield 4.844%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.842%5-year yield 4.518%, +1.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.497%10-year yield 4.514%, +2.9 basis point. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.487%30-year yield 4.670%, +3.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.6 to 8%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -33.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -35.5 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -17.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -21.4 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 15:15 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech. Investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more

Japanese yen lower after BoJ minutes

May 9, 2024 | 04:12 am

The Japanese yen has posted a three-day slide and is in negative territory on Thursday. USD/JPY has risen 0.26% on the day and is trading at 155.93 at the time of writing. Is the BoJ turning hawkish? The Bank of Japan released its Summary of Opinions from its April 26th meeting earlier today. The meeting […]

USD/TRY Forecast: S&P publishes its expectations for the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar during 2024.

May 9, 2024 | 03:56 am

Trading of the US dollar against the Turkish lira varied during Thursday's session.

Initial jobless claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present data on the number of initial unemployment claims. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for the first time during the past week. Statistics are collected by the National Ministry of Labor and published in a weekly report. The number of benefit claims is used to measure the health of the employment sector, as an increase in the number means that fewer people are hired. It may change from 208.0K to 211.0K. Read more

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Dead cat bounce or the start of a rally?

May 9, 2024 | 03:23 am

Crude oil has been on a steady downtrend since the end of the retaliations between Iran and Israel that eventually marked the top in the geopolitical risk premium. The selloff continued as we got some noise from the cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. More recently, we started to get news about speculations that OPEC+ could extend the voluntary output cuts into year end. The group meets on June 1st. Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil fell below the trendline yesterday but eventually rallied back above it leaving behind a hammer candlestick pattern. We have a resistance zone around the $81 level where we might find the sellers stepping in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the $85 level. Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone with a downward trendline adding some extra confluence. If we get a pullback into the upward trendline around the $78.50 level, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a better risk to reward setup to target the break above the $81 resistance. Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while tomorrow we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, so the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro Testing the Top of Consolidation Against British Pound

May 9, 2024 | 03:18 am

The euro has rallied again during the early hours on Wednesday against the British pound, as we continue to see the British pound suffer at the hands of volatility.

EUR/USD Analysis: Dollar Regains Ground

May 9, 2024 | 02:49 am

May 09, 2024, Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD

CAC Forecast: Continues to Pressure Resistance

May 9, 2024 | 02:40 am

The Parisian CAC rallied again during the early hours on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of upward pressure in equities globally.

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Continues to Look for Support Against Swiss Franc

May 9, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound fell during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of volatility in the GBP/CHF pair.

USD/PKR Analysis: Speculative Eye Test and Slight Move to Lower Depth

May 9, 2024 | 02:34 am

The USD/PKR has traded lower in the past week and is maintaining value within the midst of a range band that is testing mid-term depths.

USD/JPY Analysis: A Noticeable Disregard for Japanese Warnings

May 9, 2024 | 02:34 am

The yen's collapse resumed this week as concerns about the country's economy and interventions continued.

GBP/JPY Forecast: British Pound Continues to Grind Higher Against Japanese Yen

May 9, 2024 | 02:30 am

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday against the Japanese yen, which does make a certain amount of sense considering we have been in an uptrend for some time.

ETH/USD Forecast: Ethereum Continues to Test Support

May 9, 2024 | 02:25 am

Ethereum has had a slightly negative trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to hang around the crucial $3000 level.

USD/ILS Analysis: Mid-Term Highs within Sight and Stable Sentiment

May 9, 2024 | 02:22 am

The USD/ILS has traded slightly higher in early morning trading, this as the currency pair remains within sight of short and mid-term highs as technical ranges hold.

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to See Volatility

May 9, 2024 | 02:20 am

Crude oil initially plunged during the trading session on Wednesday but has turned around to show signs of strength.

Dax Forex Signal: Continues to See Overhead Ceiling

May 9, 2024 | 02:15 am

The German DAX initially tried to rally a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday but turned around to show signs of exhaustion.

XAU/USD Forecast: Gold Continues to Show Signs of Support Just Below

May 9, 2024 | 02:10 am

Gold was rather choppy during the early hours on Wednesday, but we do still have a significant amount of support below that comes into the picture to offer a bit of a potential buying opportunity.

XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Stability Remains Within Narrow Ranges

May 9, 2024 | 02:07 am

May 09, 2023. Gold Forecast and Analysis of the price of gold XAU/USD today

Precious Metals Forecast: Silver Breaks Out, Gold Consolidates

May 9, 2024 | 02:02 am

Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.

Interest rate decision. UK, 13:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 02:00 am

At 13:00 (GMT+2), the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy is due. The regulator may keep the interest rate at 5.25%. The accompanying statement may contain officials’ vision of the state and immediate prospects of the national economy, as well as hints on further actions in monetary policy. Read more

GBP/USD Analysis: All Eyes on BoE Decision

May 9, 2024 | 01:48 am

The GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen below the psychological support level of 1.2500, extending losses to the 1.2467 support level before settling around 1.2495

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Could Retest the Resistance at 0.6650 Soon

May 9, 2024 | 01:39 am

The AUD/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders assessed the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and Australia’s central bank.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Expect Volatility Ahead of the BoE Decision

May 9, 2024 | 01:28 am

The GBP/USD pair will be in the spotlight on Thursday as the Bank of England (BoE) provides hints on when it will start slashing interest rates.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: More Upside as it Finds Support at the 50 EMA

May 9, 2024 | 01:17 am

The EUR/USD exchange rate softened this week after another set of economic data from Europe.

Gold Technical Analysis – Waiting for a catalyst for some action.

May 9, 2024 | 01:16 am

We haven’t seen much action in gold this week as the lack of catalysts kept the market at bay. In fact, the price action remains tentative as we head into the US CPI release next Wednesday. Looking at the bigger picture, the Fed’s preference for a higher for longer stance rather than further tightening is more or less neutral for gold, although given the huge rally since the 2000 level it could lead to a slow correction lower. For another sustained rally, gold will need the market to price back in more rate cuts, and that should happen only with much weaker US data or downside surprises in the US inflation figures. Conversely, another reacceleration in the data with hot readings all around will likely trigger a faster selloff. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold consolidated around the 2300 level as the market priced out almost all the rate cuts and the Fed is unwilling to tighten policy further. We are in a kind of limbo right now, waiting for a catalyst to trigger another sustained move. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will undoubtedly have a much better risk to reward setup around the 2150 level where we can find the confluence of the previous all-time high, the major trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a range between the 2280 support and the 2328 resistance. Technically, the market participants can “play the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance but avoid trading in the middle of the range unless there’s a tradable catalyst. The red line around the 2352 level defines the current technical downtrend, so a break above it should turn the trend around and likely lead to a rally into a new all-time high. Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while tomorrow we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, so the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next week.See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Short-Term Bearish Price Channel Dominates

May 9, 2024 | 00:50 am

Yet there are strong support levels nearby.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 23:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0736; (P) 1.0747; (R1) 1.0759; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0733) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Trade balance. China, 05:00 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 18:00 pm

At 05:00 (GMT+2), trade balance data is due in China. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. It may grow from 58.55B American dollars to 81.40B American dollars, supporting the yuan. Read more

Building approvals. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2) in Australia, data on the number of building permits issued monthly by the government for real estate construction is due. It is one of the most important market indicators. It may change from −1.9% to 1.9% MoM, supporting the Australian dollar. Read more

RICS house price balance sheet. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2) in the UK, the April balance of house prices from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is due, which records changes in property values and allows you to analyze the situation on the market. The indicator may slow the negative trend from −4.0% to −2.0%, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

What is the technical roadmap for the GBPUSD through the BOE interest rate decision.

May 8, 2024 | 12:45 pm

The BOE rate decision will announced at 7:00 AM. No change is expected. However, it is in the nuances of the statement and comments that will drive the roadmap for traders - either bullish or bearish.To understand that, it is important to understand where the technical levels are that the "market" will pay attention to. What would increase the bullish bias? What would increase the bearish bias? If you know those levels/areas, look for the break and the run. Admittedly, it may take a surprise, but if you don't anticipate the price action, you are not ready to play/to trade. In this video, I outline the roadmap for the pair both to the upside and downside.with a focus on the key targets that if broken, would break the pair to new targets with momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY buyers are keeping control at least in the short and medium term. Stay above 155.00

May 8, 2024 | 12:10 pm

As we head toward the end of trading on May 8 and look toward the beginning of trading on May 9, the USDJPY is keeping its buyers more in control. For buyers looking for more upside the 200-hour moving average at 155.45, and the 38.2% retracement of the move lower from the end of April high near 155.00 is now support. If the price is able to remain above those levels, the buyers remain in play/control at least in the short term.On the topside, the 50% midpoint of the recent move down from the April high comes in at 156.029. That is the next major target to get to and through for the buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro drifting after weak German data

May 8, 2024 | 08:42 am

The euro continues to have an uneventful week. EUR/USD is up down 0.06%, trading at 1.0748 in the North American session at the time of trading. German industrial production declines It has been a mixed week for German data. German industrial production declined by 0.4% m/m in March after a revised gain of 1.7% in […]

EURUSD muddles along with support and resistance defined by technical swing levels/MAs

May 8, 2024 | 08:41 am

The EURUSD muddles along with support and resistance defined by technical levels. More specifically the higher the swing area 1.07346 held support. The bounce higher has run into resistance against another swing area between 1.0752 and 1.0756. The 100-day moving average is also in play at 1.0753 on the topside.The range is still very narrow at about 22 pips for the day. As a result, traders are patiently waiting for the next shove.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD continues its move lower into retracement support, but below key 100D MA.

May 8, 2024 | 07:58 am

The AUDUSD has continued/resumed its run to the downside after the selloff on the "less hawkish" RBA rate decision. The move to the downside for the price back below its swing area near 0.6585, and it's 100-day moving average 0.6575. The momentum continued down until reaching the broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high to the April low. That level comes in at 0.65559.With support at the retracement level, and resistance now defined by the 100-day moving average and swing level, the battle lines are drawn for both the buyers and the sellers. With the price back below the 100-day moving average, the tilt is to the sellers as long as that level remains above the current level. To fully understand the roadmap, watch the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD rotates back lower in the early NA session & looks to test support target support.

May 8, 2024 | 07:28 am

The USDCAD based and moved higher in the Asian session, but has rotated back to the downside where there is support between 1.3715 and 1.3727. Within that area are Swing lows and swing highs going back to April 11 between 1.37146 and 1.37275. The 50% midpoint of the trading range since the April high at 1.37275, and the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart 1.37159If the buyers are to hold support, that area will be the risk-defining area. Staying above is more bullish. Moving below would shift the bias back to the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF consolidates gains. Traders use swing area resistance as lean point/low risk target

May 8, 2024 | 06:36 am

The USDCHF is consolidating in a narrow trading range today after and up and down move to the upside on Monday and Tuesday. Recall on Monday, the low price installed nearly 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2024 low. That level comes in at 0.90341.The subsequent move to the upside has taken the price back above its falling 100-hour moving average at 0.90753. However, resistance held against a swing area between 0.9087 and 0.90949. Sellers leaned against the high of that risk-defining level today. The stall at that level, increases at levels importance from a technical perspective going forward. A move above is needed to give buyers the go-ahead to push higher.Conversely on the downside, the low price today stalled against its 100-hour moving average. Moving below that level would give sellers more ammunition, and disappoint the buyers seen this week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The RBA disappointed the hawks

May 8, 2024 | 06:14 am

Fundamental OverviewThe USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. Nevertheless, the USD has been in the driving seat this week despite the lack of economic data or major changes in the fundamentals.The AUD, on the other hand, has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chances of a rate hike. The RBA yesterday disappointed the hawks as it didn’t add any hawkish language in the statement and the RBA’s Governor Bullock sounded pretty neutral despite repeating the same old message that they are “not ruling anything in or out”.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD couldn’t break above the key resistance zone around the 0.6650 level as the RBA disappointed the buyers and the USD weakness faded across the board. We will likely need a soft US CPI report next week to push the price beyond the resistance. There’s not much to work with this week, so the technicals might remain in the driving seat. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 0.6577 level where we can find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the upside to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the 0.6650 resistance. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, and the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 8 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 8, 2024 | 05:47 am

In the kickstart video, for May 8th, i will take a look at the USD vs three major currencies - the EUR, JPY and GBP. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - The buyers are in control

May 8, 2024 | 05:34 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. Nevertheless, the USD has been in the dirving seat this week despite the lack of economic data or major changes in the fundamentals.The CAD, on the other hand, might have been under pressure due to the sustained weakness in crude oil prices and expectations building for the BOC to cut rates in June, although the employment data on Friday and the Canadian CPI report on May 21st will likely decide if the BOC will wait until July or proceed with a cut already in June. USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD has been rallying steadily since the US NFP report. The reasons for the rally are unclear as the only thing that changed is the market pricing in two rate cuts for the Fed after the Friday's data release. Nevertheless, the pair remains in an uptrend as the price bounced on the key support zone around the 1.36 handle where we had also the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The target for the buyers should be the cycle highs around the 1.39 handle, while the sellers will need a break below the trendline to start positioning for a drop back into the 1.32 handle. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that have a clear uptrend on this timeframe with the price printing higher highs and higher lows. From a risk management perspective though, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the downside to invalidate the bullish trend and position for a drop into the 1.36 support. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the week with the Canadian jobs data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. A lower wage growth figure coupled with another uptick in the unemployment rate will likely weigh a lot on the Canadian Dollar. Conversely data mostly in line with expectations or a bit better shouldn’t change much, although the market might place more probability for a July cut rather than for the June one. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EIA Crude Oil Inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish a weekly Crude Oil Inventories report containing data on changes in the volume of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the United States. A correction is expected from the current 7.265 million barrels to -2.300 million barrels, which may support the quotes of "black gold". Read more

Canadian dollar slips despite strong Ivey PMI

May 8, 2024 | 05:16 am

USD/CAD has edged higher on Wednesday and is up 0.25%, trading at 1.3760 at the time of writing. Canada’s Ivey PMI climbed sharply in April to 63.0, up from 57.5 in March and beating the forecast of 58.1. This marked the highest level since May 2022, indicating that purchasing managers have seen an improvement in […]

The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 8, 2024 | 05:07 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The JPY is just behind the AUD as one of the weakest currencies after comments from Japan Finance Minister and BOJs Ueda failed to scare sufficiently JPY sellers. The JPY is working on its 3rd day in a row lower (higher USDJPY and other JPY pairs). Suzuki's comments emphasize cautious monitoring of foreign exchange movements, stressing the importance of stability and the negative impact of a weak yen. He highlighted the urgency in observing market fluctuations without committing to specific FX levels or defending absolute thresholds. Suzuki expressed a readiness to intervene if necessary to address rapid and undesirable shifts in currency values, aiming for movements that reflect economic fundamentals.Ueda, while addressing the Diet, emphasized that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy primarily targets inflation, not the yen rate, although it acknowledges the significant impact of FX movements on the economy. He noted that the weak yen increases import costs, affecting the economy and potentially inflation trends. While the BOJ does not aim to control FX rates directly, it considers them as one of many factors influencing the economy. Ueda stated that if yen volatility significantly affects inflation trends, the BOJ might adjust monetary policy accordingly. He anticipates trend inflation to gradually approach 2%, and the BOJ is prepared to modify its monetary stance earlier than expected if inflation risks or actual rates deviate significantly from their forecasts. Additionally, Ueda mentioned that the BOJ will continue its daily bond buying, adjusting the amount based on market developments but maintaining the current pace for now. He also highlighted that the Japanese economy is recovering, albeit with weaknesses, and expressed readiness to adapt to economic shocks with all available means, including unconventional measures. Rapid, one-sided yen falls were characterized as undesirable for the economy.Geopolitically, Israel sees no signs of breakthrough in the truce talks in Gaza. However, Israeli delegation is still in Cairo. Yesterday it was reported that Palestine had accepted an agreement, but the agreement was not what Israel proposed. So it was immediately rejected.The economic calendar in Europe was minimal with German industrial production falling -0.4% versus -0.6% expected. The calendar in the North American session isn't any more lively with wholesale inventories (revised) to be released at 10 AM ET. The estimate is -0.4% +0.4% last month. The weekly oil inventory data will be 10:30 AM with crude oil stocks expected to show a drawdown of -1.066M and gasoline stocks expected at -1.255M. The private data released yesterday showed a build of 0.509M in oil stocks and a build of 1.460M for gasoline. Today crude oil is down around $-0.90.On the Fed speaking circuit today, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, Fed's Collins and and Fed Gov. Jefferson are all expected to voice their views on things after the Fed decision last week.Note that the Bank of England will meet tomorrow and after recent decision at 7 AM ET.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $0.82 or -1.05% at $77.56.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $78.28Gold is trading unchanged at $2313.58. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2313.32Silver is trading near unchanged at $27.22. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.26Bitcoin currently trades at $62,357. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $53,811In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower after mixed/little changed values yesterday:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -17.26 points. Yesterday, the index rose 31.99 points or 0.08% at 38884.27.S&P futures are implying a decline of -10.20 points yesterday, the S&P index rose 6.90 points or 0.13% at 5187.71.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -44.12 points. Yesterday the index fell -16.69 points or -0.10% at 16332.56.European stock indices are trading mostly higher:German DAX, +0.31%France CAC , closed for holidayUK FTSE 100, +0.27%Spain's Ibex, +0.51%.Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.22% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed/higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, -1.63%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.61%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.90%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.14%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher. Today the U.S. Treasury will auction off 10-year notes. Yesterday, the three year note was auctioned with solid demand (tail was negative and bid-to-cover numbers were higher than the six-month average). Tomorrow they will auction off 30-year bonds:2-year yield 4.842%, +1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.822%5-year yield 4.497%, +2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.476%10-year yield 4.487%, +2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.473%30-year yield 4.628%, +2.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.619%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -35.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at - 34.9 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -21.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -19.8 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY – Yen weakness prompts warning from Tokyo

May 8, 2024 | 03:41 am

The Japanese yen is down for a third straight day and has declined 1.5% this week. USD/JPY has risen 0.43% on the day and is trading at 155.35 at the time of writing. Early Thursday, the BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions from the April meeting. Japanese officials remain mum about suspected interventions on […]

Industrial Production. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the data on German Industrial Production for March will be published. Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced. The indicator takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the power industry. The value is expected to correct from 2.1% to -1.0% month-on-month, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due. Earlier, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.906M barrels of crude oil, and this trend continuation may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

Yen extends losses, Fed members cautious

May 7, 2024 | 05:46 am

The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day on Tuesday. USD/JPY has risen 0.45%, up 154.59, up 0.45% at the time of writing. The yen is down 1% this week after soaring 3.4% against the dollar a week earlier. The markets are still buzzing after Japan’s Ministry of Finance apparently intervened twice last […]

Australian dollar weakens as RBA says no rate hikes planned

May 7, 2024 | 05:10 am

The Australian dollar has lost ground on Tuesday. AUD/USD has dropped by 0.31%, trading at 0.6604 in the European session at the time of writing. RBA stays pat but wary of inflation There was no surprise as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for a sixth straight time. The RBA […]

Ivey PMI. Canada, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2) in Canada, April data on the Ivey business activity index is due. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The value may increase from 57.5 points to 58.1 points, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Pound shrugs as construction PMI jumps

May 7, 2024 | 01:59 am

The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is down 0.21%, trading at 1.2535 in the European session at the time of writing. The UK construction PMI jumped to 53.0 in April, up from 50.2 in March and above the forecast of 50.4. This is only the second reading showing growth after six straight […]

AUD/NZD: Aussie medium-term outperformance against Kiwi intact supported by RBA

May 7, 2024 | 00:42 am

Today’s RBA monetary policy decision statement has kept the possibility of a rate hike before 2024 ends “alive”. The narrowing of the discount between Australia-New Zealand sovereign bonds yield spread has supported the potential continuation of the AUD/NZD medium-term uptrend phase. Watch the key medium-term support of 1.0940 on the AUD/NZD. The paths of inflationary […]

Retail sales. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), data on retail sales in the EU is due. The indicator monthly records the totality of all goods retailers sold, based on a sample of retail outlets of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on a region’s gross domestic product. It may adjust from −0.5% to 0.6% MoM. Read more

Construction PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the construction sector is due in the UK. The indicator reflects the state of business sentiment in the construction market based on a survey of managers of the country’s largest companies. It may rise from 50.2 points to 50.4 points. Read more

Factory orders. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of industrial orders is due in Germany. This indicator records the number of orders for durable and non-durable goods. It may change from 0.2% to 0.4%, supporting the euro. Read more

Trade balance. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in Germany. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. It may adjust from 21.4B euros to 22.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

Unemployment rate. Switzerland, 07:45 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 20:45 pm

At 07:45 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish April data on the unemployment rate – an indicator that records the percentage of registered unemployed over 18 years to the total working-age population. The non-seasonally adjusted value may grow from 2.4% and the seasonally adjusted value from 2.3%, putting pressure on the franc. Read more

Interest rate decision. Australia, 06:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 19:30 pm

At 06:30 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. Officials are likely to keep the value at the current level of 4.35%. The accompanying statement may contain an assessment of the country’s financial authorities regarding the current state of the economy against global geopolitical tensions. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOE, RBA, China trade and inflation data on the radar for this week

May 6, 2024 | 18:08 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, two central banks’ monetary policy to ponder on ex-post “not so hawkish” FOMC last week engineered by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. In the Asia pacific region, we will have RBA meeting on Tuesday (7 May) […]

Retail sales. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Australia will release Q1 retail sales data, a key indicator of consumer spending that has a significant impact on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It may change from 0.3% to −0.2% MoM, putting pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2) in Japan, the April index of business activity in the service sector from the national Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is due. The indicator reflects the total cost of services purchased by companies in key service industries (excluding manufacturing) and is a leading indicator of the Tankan Business Activity Index. It may rise from 54.1 points to 54.6 points, supporting the yen. Read more

BRC retail sales monitor. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), April retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) is due. The indicator considers the dynamics of sales of goods in stores open for at least a year based on the information they regularly provide. The April value may change from 3.2% to 1.8%, supporting the pound. Read more

Yen rally fizzles as US dollar climbs

May 6, 2024 | 08:29 am

The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Monday after stringing together a three-day rally. USD/JPY is trading at 153.92, up 0.62% at the time of writing. The yen took traders on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Japanese yen fell below the 160 level on Monday, setting another 34-year record before recovering. On Wednesday, the […]

Euro edges higher as eurozone data improves

May 6, 2024 | 06:25 am

The euro has started the new trading week quietly. EUR/USD is up 0.23%, trading at 1.0787 in the North American session at the time of trading. Eurozone investor confidence shows slight improvement The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index took a small step forward in May, rising to -3.6, up from -5.9 in April and was […]

Gold Technical: A floor may have been formed for the bulls

May 6, 2024 | 01:46 am

Stagflation risk is still lingering as indicated by the latest April US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. A not fully priced-in stagflation risk scenario may support another bullish impulsive upmove sequence for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key medium-term pivotal zone of US$2,260/2,210 for Gold (XAU/USD). This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, […]

AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision next

May 6, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. RBA widely expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to […]

Producer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the producer price index in the EU is due. The indicator reflects changes in the price of goods at the wholesale level (raw materials, semi-finished products and final goods are taken into account). Increasing prices for producers contributes to the growth of consumer inflation in the region. A decrease of the indicator from –8.3% YoY and from –1.0% MoM will put pressure on the euro. Read more

NZ dollar higher as nonfarm payrolls looms

May 3, 2024 | 04:28 am

The New Zealand dollar has extended its gains on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5985, up 0.39% at the time of writing. It has been a roller-coaster ride for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 1.5% on Tuesday but has since rebounded and fully recovered. US nonfarm payrolls expected to ease The US economy remains […]

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