Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

USDCAD runs higher and breaks through a series of technical targets along the way.

May 7, 2024 | 12:51 pm

The USDCAD has made a move to the upside today with the help of technical breaks through some key moving averages. More specifically, the.100 and 200 hour moving averages were broken near the same level at 1.3688100 bar moving average on the four hour chart was broken at 1.37169The move higher also extended above a swing area between 1.3714 and 1.3728. That area will now be close support for traders looking for more upside.The video above outlines the roadmap for the USDCAD and the levels now in play as the bias turns more to the upside on today's move higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

S&P index tops out at 5200 and reverses lower

May 7, 2024 | 11:47 am

After trading up to an intraday high of 5200.23 – a nice round number for the index - the S&P index has reversed to the downside and now trade near unchanged at 5180.60. At session highs, the index was up 19.50 points. The low price just reached -1.77 points.It's never good when a process thaws against a nice round number. At the very least, it increases the levels risk defining level. It gives sellers (in this case) the opportunity to lean against level going forward. Staying below 5200 is more bearish. it would take a move above to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the price gapped higher from Friday to Monday with a low yesterday of 5148.09. That would be a downside target going forward. The broken 61.8% retracement of the move down from the April high comes in at 5145.94 and would be another target on increased selling momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD trades to a new low for the day/week and approaches a key target support level

May 7, 2024 | 11:33 am

The EURUSD is falling to a new session low for the day and a new low for the 2-days of the new trading week. The move lower has the pair moving downward toward its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, The broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 2023 high, and also the Rising 100-day moving average. All those levels come in at the same 1.07458 level, making the level a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. If the price can stay above that level, the buyers remain more in control. If the price moves below the level, sellers start to take back more control from the buyers (look for more selling on a break).Note earlier in the day, the high price fell short of the 50% midpoint of the same move lower. That level was also the high price from Monday's trade. The inability to extend above that level gave the sellers the go-ahead to push to the downside. Yields have also come off of their high levels giving a small boost to the US dollar. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due. Earlier, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.906M barrels of crude oil, and this trend continuation may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

Analysis of GBP/USD pair on May 7th. The market fluctuates, and the British currency holds steady

May 7, 2024 | 08:47 am

The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicated the market's readiness to build a downtrend wave 3 or c. If this wave continues its formation, the wave pattern will become much more straightforward, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I have noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable. There needs to be more simplicity and understanding in recent months. For a long time, the pair has been in a sideways trend, and only now is there a possibility of constructing an impulsive downtrend wave.In the current situation, my readers can expect the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the British currency should decline by at least 500-600 basis points from current levels. With such a decline, wave 3 or c will be relatively small, but I expect a more significant drop in quotes. After breaking the 1.2469 mark (50.0% according to Fibonacci), sellers have removed the psychological barrier, but recent US reports have prompted sellers to pause until better times.Sellers are taking their time to go to the market. The GBP/USD pair rate decreased by 5 basis points on Tuesday, while it increased by 15 yesterday. There is no news background in the UK and the USA these days. Therefore, the very weak desire of the market to make deals is understandable. The British currency is openly taking advantage of the current situation and is pleased that there are no new reasons for its sale. I remind you that the demand for the pound should continue to decline based on the current wave analysis and the news background. Lately, US reports have not pleased traders, but it is not possible to consider only negative data from the US while completely ignoring negative data from the UK.There is currently a decoupling of expectations regarding the interest rates of the Bank of England and the Fed. The market believed the American regulator would start lowering the rate in March but was wrong. The market believed that the Bank of England would start lowering the rate at the end of the year, which was also wrong. It is clear that the British regulator may start easing as early as the summer, and the Fed - even throughout 2024, may not achieve the required inflation rate for rate cuts.Based on the above, I expect a decline in the British currency, at least to the 23 figure. This mark should not be the final point of the British currency's decline, as the presumed wave 3 or c is far from taking on a completed form. Its internal wave structure is very complex, but the overall picture remains the same.General conclusionsThe wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or c continues its formation. A successful attempt to break the 1.2472 mark, which corresponds to 50.0% according to Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to build a downtrend wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.2625 mark, equivalent to 38.2% according to Fibonacci, will indicate the completion of the internal corrective wave within 3 or c.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The descending corrective trend leg continues its formation, and its second wave has taken on an extended form - to 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark could have led to the beginning of the construction of 3 or c, but at the moment, a corrective wave is being built.The main principles of my analysis are:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders for protection.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD pair on May 7th. The market sleeps and awaits important messages

May 7, 2024 | 08:39 am

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. We are currently observing the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downtrend section. If this is the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should end below.The 1.0450 mark is the target only for the third wave. If the current downtrend section becomes impulsive, we can expect five waves, and the euro currency may decline below the 1.0000 mark. Undoubtedly, it isn't easy to expect such a development of events now, but there have been enough surprises in the currency market in recent years. Anything is possible.Is there a probability of changing the wave analysis? It is always there. However, if since October 3rd of last year, we have observed a new uptrend section, then the last downtrend wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward segment is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis. Such a scenario seems unlikely, so I will base my analysis on the basic analysis.Euro stopped at an important crossroads. The EUR/USD pair rate hardly changed on Tuesday, and the range of movements was very low. The pair is at a standstill for the second day in a row, and the news background is practically absent. Yesterday, the market received information on business activity in the service sectors of Germany and the European Union, and today - on retail trade volumes in the EU. All this information caused almost no reaction from market participants.According to Fibonacci, the pair remains below the 1.0788 mark, corresponding to 76.4%,. This mark is of great importance, and it is already clear that buyers will have a hard time breaking through it. A new downtrend wave in the structure of 3 or from may start from this mark. In case of consolidation above this mark, the construction of the current uptrend wave will continue, take an unnatural form, and may lead to adjustments to the entire wave structure. I want to avoid the last scenario, but things do not always go according to plan in the currency market.I expect a further decline in demand for the euro currency, as I see no reason for the market to buy the pair if the ECB starts easing monetary policy as early as next month. At the same time, the Fed will not conduct the first round of easing in June. We'll have to wait at least a few more months, but with the current level of inflation, I won't be surprised if we don't see a reduction in interest rates by the end of the year.General conclusions Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the construction of a downtrend wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so I expect the resumption of constructing an impulsive downtrend wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets around the calculated mark of 1.0462, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. According to Fibonacci, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0787 mark, equivalent to 76.4%, will indicate the market's readiness for new sales.On a larger wave scale, it can be seen that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure has begun to be implemented.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders for protection.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for May 7-9, 2024: sell below $64,000 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

May 7, 2024 | 08:38 am

Bitcoin is trading around 63,588, below the 200 EMA, and below the 21 SMA. Bitcoin reached the psychological level of $65,000, the area which coincided with 5/8 Murray.After trying to break the bearish trend channel forming since April 21, the crypto found a strong rejection. Since then, we are watching a technical correction.In the next few hours, Bitcoin could continue its rise. If the price reaches 63,975, it could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling operations with targets at 62,500 and 3/8 Murray located at 59,375.On the contrary, if there is a pullback towards the top of the downtrend channel around 65,200 and if Bitcoin fails to consolidate above this area, it will be seen as a signal to sell with short-term targets at 2/8 Murray located at 56,500.On the other hand, if Bitcoin trades below the 200 EMA (64,000) in the next few hours, it could be seen as a signal to sell as the eagle indicator is producing overbought signals. Therefore, a technical correction is likely to occur in the next few days.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Video market update for May 07, 2024

May 7, 2024 | 08:35 am

Potential for the rally on Dollar INdex... The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 7th (US session)

May 7, 2024 | 08:31 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yenThe test of the price at 154.13 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had dropped significantly below the zero mark, limiting the downward potential of the pair - especially against the bullish market. Unfortunately, there was no second test of this price, which prevented me from entering the market to buy the dollar. The technical picture changed for the second half of the day, but it is unlikely that we can expect strong and directional movement in either direction. Data on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume are not important to the market, especially for the dollar against the Japanese yen. Therefore, I will also look for suitable entry points for trading within the channel. And if I decide to act on a breakout, it is better within the framework of further bullish trend development. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 154.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 155.41 (thicker green line on the chart). At the point of 155.41, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting the pair to rise today in continuation of the bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.35 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 154.67 and 155.41.Sell signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 154.35 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.70, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.67 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.35 and 153.70.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought; Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold; Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 7th (US session)

May 7, 2024 | 08:23 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the British poundThere was no testing of the levels I indicated due to the low market volatility in the first half of the day. Fairly decent data came out regarding activity in the UK construction sector, which allowed us to avoid and stop the sell-off observed in the pound since the second half of yesterday. However, this did not lead to entry points. Figures on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume are unlikely to strongly influence the direction of the pound and the dollar during American trading, so I will stick to trading more within the sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenario No. 2, as I do not expect strong movements.Buy signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2558 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.2609 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2609, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Today, the rise of the pound can be expected only after weak US statistics and breaking the daily maximum. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests at 1.2531, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2558 and 1.2609.Sell signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2531 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2491, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will manifest themselves in case of inactivity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decrease.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests at 1.2558, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2531 and 1.2491.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought; Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold; Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must carefully decide about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD bounces ahead of the 100-day MA today. What next technically for the pair?

May 7, 2024 | 08:23 am

The AUDUSD moved higher to retest the swing area ceiling area before the RBA rate decision and found willing sellers. That ceiling area comes in between 0.6635 and 0.6648. The rotation lower after the rate decision, took the price down toward the 100 day MA at 0.65765. That moving average was resistance last week, before breaking higher on the weaker US jobs report. So with resistance at the ceiling area and support at the 100-day MA, the bookend levels are defined. Traders will ultimately look for a break outside of the key levels.The above video outlines the details of the levels and defines the roadmap for trading going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 7th (US session)

May 7, 2024 | 08:13 am

Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currencyThere was no testing of the levels I indicated due to the low market volatility in the first half of the day. Decent data came out for France and Germany and retail sales in the eurozone. But all of this was not enough to stir the market after Friday's spike, formed against the backdrop of US labor market data. Objectively, looking at the US data today, I don't expect anything good from the second half of the day. Figures on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume are unlikely to strongly impact the pair's direction, so I will stick to trading more within the sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenario No. 2, as I do not expect strong movements.Buy signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0778 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0815. At 1.0815, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, the euro's rise can be expected only after weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0756 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0778 and 1.0815.Sell signalScenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0756 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0724, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return without buyer activity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decrease.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests at 1.0778 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0756 and 1.0724.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must carefully decide about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 7th (analysis of morning deals). Pound attempts to be bought

May 7, 2024 | 07:53 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2529 and planned to make decisions on market entry based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The decline and the formation of a false breakout led to an excellent entry point for buying the pound. At the time of writing this article, the growth amounted to about 15 points, and that was all. However, as long as trading stays above 1.2529, the chances for further growth remain. The technical picture for the second half of the day still needs to be revised.For opening long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Considering the quite decent data on the growth of activity in the UK construction sector, pound buyers managed to show themselves around 1.2529, but they need help figuring out what to do next. It is unlikely to become clearer in the second half of the day after the release of data on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the volume of consumer credit in the US. These figures do not mean much, so the pair may continue trading within a narrow sideways channel and its lower boundary of 1.2529. Another false breakout formation there, similar to what I analyzed earlier, will provide an entry point for buying with the goal of returning to the resistance at 1.2566, where the moving averages, playing on the sellers' side, are located. Breaking and testing this range from top to bottom against the backdrop of poor statistics is a chance for GBP/USD to rise with an update to 1.2606. If we break above this range, we can talk about a surge to 1.2657, where I plan to make a profit. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2529 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will increase, and a further upward trend will be at risk. In such a case, I will look for purchases around 1.2503. The formation of a false breakout will be a suitable option for market entry. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2467, with a target of a correction of 30-35 points within the day.For opening short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Bears have a good chance to continue the pair's decline, but for this, strong US statistics and statements from Fed officials about further combating high inflation are needed. The formation of a false breakout around 1.2566 would be an ideal condition for entering short positions, leading to a decline in GBP/USD to around 1.2529. Bulls may not withstand a second hit to this level, so breaking and reverse testing from the bottom to the top of this range will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another entry point for selling with the goal of updating to 1.2503. Testing this level will put buyers in a very precarious position. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.2467, where I will take profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD rise and the absence of bears at 1.2566 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to update the maximum at 1.2606. I will only enter there on a false breakout. In the absence of activity there, I recommend opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2657, expecting a rebound of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 30th, there was a sharp reduction in long and short positions. The labor market report still needs to be included in these figures, so objectively, we have incomplete data. But ahead of us is the Bank of England meeting, where the regulator's position may affect the market's balance of power. For this reason, a small outflow and reduction of positions of buyers and sellers does not come as a surprise. The fact that there are more short positions by one and a half times by itself indicates a medium-term trend, which I will continue to adhere to. In the latest COT report, it is stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 4,791 to 43,668, while short non-commercial positions fell by 2,034 to 72,658. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 550.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a further decline of the pound.Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2529, will act as support.Description of indicatorsMoving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 7-9, 2024: buy above $ 2,318 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

May 7, 2024 | 07:51 am

Gold is trading around 2,314, below the 200 EMA, below the 21 SMA, and within an uptrend channel forming since May 3 with signs of exhaustion.On the H1 chart, we can see that gold followed a bearish bias during the last negotiations. However, with a break and consolidation above 2,318, the metal could resume the bullish cycle and the price could reach 2,335 and finally the top of the bullish trend channel around 2,350.The eagle indicator shows that gold is reaching overbought levels. So, we reckon if gold fails to break above 2,330, it could make a technical correction.In case gold falls and consolidates below 2,312, the outlook could be negative and we could expect it to reach the support of 2,295, then 2,277 and finally, 4/8 of Murray located at 2,250.The market sentiment report shows that there are 54.62% of traders who are buying gold. According to these statistics, we expect gold to reach resistance levels in the coming days and then sell with targets at 2,277 and 2,250.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 7th (analysis of morning deals). The euro remains within the channel

May 7, 2024 | 07:46 am

In my morning forecast, I noted the level of 1.0776 and planned to make decisions on market entry based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. Growth occurred, but due to low volatility, we only reached it once testing this range. Consequently, suitable entry points into the market still needed to be achieved. The technical picture for the second half of the day remained unchanged.For opening long positions on EURUSD, the following is required:The absence of significant Eurozone statistics became the key point of low trading volume and weak pair volatility. Even though retail sales volume in the Eurozone in March of this year exceeded economists' forecasts, it didn't particularly help the euro. I detailed the reasons for this in the morning forecast. The fact that we only have data on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume ahead of us likely means that volatility will remain the same. However, pressure on the euro may increase, given that risk asset buyers did not manifest themselves in the first half of the day. I plan to act according to the morning scenario: only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0741 will give an entry point into long positions capable of pushing the euro towards the significant resistance zone at 1.0776, which we did not reach today. Breaking and updating this range from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a new bullish market and a signal to buy with a chance of a surge to 1.0812. The ultimate target will be at a maximum of 1.0850, where I will take profit. In the case of a decrease in EUR/USD and the absence of activity around 1.0741 against the backdrop of very strong US statistics, pressure on the euro within the medium-term bearish trend will return. In such a scenario, I will enter the market only after the formation of a false breakout around the next support at 1.0706. I plan to open long positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0677, with a target of an upward correction within the day by 30-35 points.For opening short positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Euro sellers also have all the chances for the pair to fall. But first, I would like to see their activity around the significant resistance at 1.0776. The formation of a false breakout would be an excellent scenario for entering short positions with the target of declining to around 1.0741. Breaking and holding below this range, along with a reverse test from bottom to top, will provide another selling point with the pair moving towards 1.0706. There, I expect more active involvement from large buyers. The ultimate target will be at a minimum of 1.0677, where I will take profit. In the case of upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0776, bears will bid farewell in hopes of returning the market under their control. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0812 - the weekly maximum. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0850 with a target of a downward correction by 30-35 points.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 30th, there was a reduction in long and short positions. The Federal Reserve meeting could be interpreted in two ways, so significant changes in the market did not occur. Some have a chance that the Fed will still start lowering rates this year, just as some continue to buy the dollar, betting on a longer period of high interest rates. The data released on the US labor market last week still need to be reflected in this COT report, so we need the complete picture. However, despite this, I expect a further decline in the pair within the observed medium-term trend. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions fell by 111 to 167,185, while short non-commercial positions collapsed by 3,323 to 173,962. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 618.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0760, will act as support.Description of indicatorsMoving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF:Buyers had their shot with a move above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Missed.

May 7, 2024 | 06:59 am

Yesterday, the USDCHF traded up-and-down closing near its highs for the day after finding support against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March low to the May high. in the Asian session today, the price continued its move to the upside and extended above its 200-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 0.90797. The price also moved above a swing area between 0.9071 and 0.90768. Those levels are now resistance as the breaks above those technical levels failed. The buyers had their shot. They missed. The pair is trading to a new session low. If the aforementioned resistance levels hold, on the downside the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March low to the May high comes in at 0.90341 and would be the next key target. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD Trades to a new high

May 7, 2024 | 06:44 am

The EURUSD is straight into a new session high and moves closer to the target area defined by 2% midpoint of the range since March high and the 200 day moving average. Levels come between 1.07906 and 1.07946. Key barometer for both buyers and sellers going forward. Looking for sellers to lean on the first test. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 06:13 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.12; (P) 153.57; (R1) 154.34; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.79) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume the fall from 160.20. But strong support should be seen from […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9043; (P) 0.9056; (R1) 0.9076; More…. USD/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9005 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9101) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.8996) will […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 06:08 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2565; (R1) 1.2591; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2633 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2471 support holds. Above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 05:54 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0753; (P) 1.0772; (R1) 1.0789; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0810 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0725) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for May 7 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 7, 2024 | 05:49 am

As the North American session begins, what are the key bias, risks, targets for the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. It is important as a trader to understand, what the price action is saying. The price action with technical tools, give traders a roadmap for their trading. In this video This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Yen extends losses, Fed members cautious

May 7, 2024 | 05:46 am

The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day on Tuesday. USD/JPY has risen 0.45%, up 154.59, up 0.45% at the time of writing. The yen is down 1% this week after soaring 3.4% against the dollar a week earlier. The markets are still buzzing after Japan’s Ministry of Finance apparently intervened twice last […]

GBP/USD Analysis: Strong Bearish Control - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 05:17 am

The late week decline in the GBP/USD exchange rate is an ominous sign and suggests potential losses in the coming days.

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest

May 7, 2024 | 05:11 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. Having said that the pairs are fairly scrunched together with the USD, CAD and EUR fighting for the strongest. The JPY is the most weakest followed by the AUD which is lower after their interest rate decision as the decision was thought to be somewhat less hawkish then expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for May 2024, a move that was expected. In the statement, the RBA said that despite inflation showing signs of moderation, it is decreasing at a slower pace than expected. The RBA highlighted several uncertainties affecting the economic outlook, including persistent services inflation and weak household consumption growth. Additionally, uncertainties in the global economic environment continue to pose challenges. The RBA emphasized that the journey to bringing inflation back within the target range would be complex and extended, asserting a vigilant stance towards potential upside risks to inflation. They also remained non-committal about future monetary policy decisions.In her press conference following the decision , RBA's Michelle Bullock stated that the current interest rates are appropriately set to bring inflation back to the target level, although she acknowledged that recent economic data has been variable. Bullock emphasized the importance of a long-term perspective and the need for vigilance regarding inflation risks. She mentioned that while an additional tightening of rates might not be necessary, it cannot be entirely ruled out if required by future economic conditions. Bullock affirmed that the current policy stance is to maintain rates and closely monitor the economic developments. She noted that there had been discussions about possibly raising rates, particularly if inflation's decline is significantly delayed, but clarified that this is not the expected scenario at present. The market's current pricing is seen as relatively balanced, but she highlighted the importance of remaining alert, as the costs of higher inflation would outweigh those of lower inflation.In Japan, BoJ Governor Ueda had a routine discussion with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, focusing on foreign exchange issues and the broader economic impacts. During their conversation, Ueda confirmed that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would consider the significant potential impacts of economic fluctuations and price changes in their policy decisions. He emphasized the central bank's readiness to closely monitor the effects of the Japanese Yen's movements on trend inflation and outlined the BoJ's commitment to guide its monetary policy from the perspective of sustainably achieving the inflation goal.Meanwhile in the EU, ECBs de Cos reiterated that rates can be cut from June if the price path holds and that the ECB is dependent and cannot commit to a specific rate path. Nothing new there.The BOE will be the next central bank to meet, and will announce their rate decision on Thursday at 7 AM ET.This morning, earnings from Disney and others were reported. Disney beat on EPS but was shy of expectations on revenues. Disney shares are trading down -5.3% in pre-market trading. US stocks are mixed with Dow up modestly. S&P near unchanged and the Nasdaq down modestly. Below are a list of some of the releases this morning. TransDigm Group Inc (TDG):EPS: $7.99 (expected $7.42) - BEATRevenue: $1.92 billion (expected $1.88 billion) - BEATGlobalFoundries (GFS):EPS: $0.31 (expected $0.23) - BEATRevenue: $1.549 billion (expected $1.52 billion) - BEATKenvue Inc (KVUE):EPS: $0.28 (expected $0.26) - BEATRevenue: $3.89 billion (expected $3.79 billion) - BEATFerrari (RACE IM):Revenue: €1.59 billion (expected €1.57 billion) - BEATAdj. EBITDA: €605 million (expected €605 million) - METAdj. Net Income: €352 million (expected €342 million) - BEATWalt Disney Co (DIS):EPS: $1.21 (expected $1.10) - BEATRevenue: $22.08 billion (expected $22.11 billion) - MISSEDDuke Energy Corp (DUK):EPS: $1.44 (expected $1.38) - BEATRevenue: $7.67 billion (expected $7.24 billion) - BEATThere are no major US economic data scheduled to be released today. The Ivey PMI index in Canada will be released at 10 AM. Last month the index came in at 57.5 seasonally adjusted. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $0.20 or -0.25% at $78.28. At this time yesterday, the price was at $79.02. Gold is trading down $12.20 or -0.53% at $2313.32. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2318.48Silver is trading down $0.17 or -0.62% at $27.26. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.10Bitcoin currently trades at $63,811. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $64,260In the premarket, the US major indices are trading mixed:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 29.53 points. Yesterday, the index rose 176.59 points or 0.46% at 38852.28.S&P futures are implying a gain of one point. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 52.93 points or 1.03% at 5180.73.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -24.32 points. Yesterday the index rose 192.92 points or 1.19% at 16349.25.European stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.50%France CAC , +0.21%UK FTSE 100, +1.03%Spain's Ibex, +0.85%. Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.28% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed/higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, +1.57%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.22%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.53%Australia S&P/ASX index, +1.44%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower. Today the U.S. Treasury will auction off 3-year notes. Tomorrow they will auction off 10- year note and on Thursday they will auction off 30-year bonds:2-year yield 4.822%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.799%5-year yield 4.476%, -0.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.472%10-year yield 4.473%, -1.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.489%30-year yield 4.619%, -2.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.694%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -34.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -31.2 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -19.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -15.3 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower. This article was[…]

Australian dollar weakens as RBA says no rate hikes planned

May 7, 2024 | 05:10 am

The Australian dollar has lost ground on Tuesday. AUD/USD has dropped by 0.31%, trading at 0.6604 in the European session at the time of writing. RBA stays pat but wary of inflation There was no surprise as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for a sixth straight time. The RBA […]

Ivey PMI. Canada, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2) in Canada, April data on the Ivey business activity index is due. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The value may increase from 57.5 points to 58.1 points, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

USD/JPY Analysis: Will it Return to Record Highs? - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 04:48 am

The Japanese yen has once again weakened past 154 yen to the dollar, giving up last week's gains even after top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said the government is ready to combat disorderly and speculative forex moves.

EUR/USD Analysis: Busy Week Ahead - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 04:41 am

According to recent trading, the euro appears increasingly ready to test some upside targets against the US dollar in the coming days, thanks to a strong reaction to the US jobs report on Friday.

Gold Analysis: New Buying Levels - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 04:36 am

Gold prices rose above $2328 an ounce today, Tuesday, supported by renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting US interest rates this year, after weaker-than-expected job growth in the United States.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis

May 7, 2024 | 04:18 am

The S&P 500 has been rising steadily since last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. All of the above is supportive for the market in the short term as the hawkish positioning unwinds a bit. S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the bigger correction into the 4834 level might have been invalidated for the time being. The S&P 500 bounced around the 5000 level as we got two positive catalysts from the FOMC decision and the softer US NFP data. The path of least resistance remains to the upside with new all-time highs in sight. S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out to the upside following the softer US NFP report and after a retest of the 5120 zone, continued higher with the buyers piling in with more conviction. If we get a pullback, the 5167 level might be the first support for a dip-buying opportunity.Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

JPY tightens its grip on USD

May 7, 2024 | 04:08 am

The Bank of Japan has greatly scared speculators on the USD/JPY pair. No matter how concerned the US is about currency interventions and no matter what the market says that the fundamentals will force USD/JPY to cimb again, it will be extremely difficult to return to 160. Despite the growth of the US dollar above 154 yen, the bullish sentiment is not strong enough. The external background is to blame for this. With a colossal government debt of more than 250% of GDP, Japan cannot afford to raise the overnight rate too quickly. Otherwise, the government will have to incur additional debt servicing costs. They have to normalize monetary policy extremely slowly, at the speed of a snail. Moreover, the longer the Bank of Japan maintains interest rates at a low level, the weaker the yen. It has long been known that the dynamics of USD/JPY depend on the yield differential between US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds. Dynamics of correlation between USD/JPY and yields differential RBC Capital Markets is guided by the correlations existing in the foreign exchange and debt markets when predicting USD/JPY's return to the 160 mark. Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers also agrees with the think tank. He believes that the currency interventions of the BoJ and the Japan's finance ministry are doomed to failure. HSBC recalls that success in Forex intervention came when Tokyo and Washington acted hand in hand. Janet Yellen's latest comments indicate dissatisfaction of the US. According to the Treasury Secretary, the US expects that interventions will be rare and require joint consultations. Japanese Deputy Finance Minister Masato Kanda was even forced to justify himself. He argues that if the foreign exchange market operates properly and does not move in tune to speculators, the government and the central bank will not need to intervene. However, in reality, his remarks are nothing more than an attempt to hide a smug smile from effectively carried out actions. Currency interventions amounting to approximately $59 billion were as successful as in 2022. USD/JPY sank from 160 to 154, and hedge funds were spooked. Interestingly, just like a year and a half ago, market participants have to thank the Federal Reserve for this. At the end of 2022, the Fed's hints at a slower tightening of monetary policy knocked the guns out of the US dollar bulls, now a similar story has happened. The day before the US nonfarm payrolls were published, Jerome Powell announced the central bank's plans to lower the federal funds rate in response to rising unemployment. A couple of days later it became known that unemployment increased in April. Is it any surprise that bond yields and the USD index are falling? Technically, on the daily chart of USD/JPY, the bulls' failure to storm fair value at 154.6 was a sign of weakness. As long as the instrument remains below this level and while there is a combination of green and red moving averages, it makes sense to consider selling in the direction of 152.3 and 150.0. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDJPY Technical Analysis - The path of least resistance remains to the upside

May 7, 2024 | 03:41 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced on the strong support zone around the 152.00 handle where we had the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers bought the dip offered by the miss in the US NFP report as that didn’t change much for the bigger picture. The sellers don’t have much to work with at the moment, so they might want to wait for the price to break below the trendline and the strong support around the 152.00 handle before piling in more aggressively and target the 146.00 handle.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the pair has now basically reached the key resistance zone around the 155.00 handle. The price is tentatively breaking above the trendline although we will likely need an extension above the 155.00 handle to trigger a stronger rally. That’s when we can expect the buyers to pile in with more conviction and target the 160.00 handle. The sellers might start stepping in around these levels to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward setup but there’s not much at the moment that can give them support. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the Japanese wage data and the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Forex forecast 05/07/2024: AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

May 7, 2024 | 03:36 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links:My other articles are available in this sectionInstaForex course for beginnersPopular AnalyticsOpen trading accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. May 7th. The bulls are running out of strength

May 7, 2024 | 03:36 am

The EUR/USD pair on Monday retraced to the resistance zone of 1.0785–1.0797, which is part of the larger resistance zone of 1.0764–1.0806. A bounce of quotes from this zone will favor the American currency and lead to a new decline towards the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0696). The ascending trend channel continues to characterize traders' sentiment as "bullish." The consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 1.0806 will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0%–1.0840. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave failed to reach the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave had already broken the peak of the previous wave. Thus, a "bullish" trend has formed, but its prospects personally raise doubts for me. Over the past 2-3 weeks, the information background has supported bull traders, but will it continue to do so? This is a big question, as the economy of the European Union is not in the best shape, and the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy much earlier than the Fed, already having a much lower interest rate.The information background on Monday was weak, and on Tuesday, it was even weaker. Neither yesterday nor today have we seen any attractive movements. Yesterday, it became known that the business activity index in the EU services sector was slightly above expectations – 53.3. Today, the retail trade report will be released. However, neither of these reports is paramount for traders, so it is quite difficult to expect further growth in the euro today. I believe that after the formation of another upward wave, a downward wave should begin, which allows for the current trend channel and the nature of movement. The bulls will find it difficult to break through the zone of 1.0764–1.0806 on the first attempt. I expect the euro to decline this week. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has executed a reversal in favor of the European currency and continues the upward process towards the upper line of the "wedge." A bounce of quotes from this line will favour the US dollar and some decline towards the corrective level of 23.6%–1.0644. Consolidation of quotes above the "wedge" will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0%–1.0862. There are no imminent divergences today.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:During the last reporting week, speculators closed 111 long contracts and 3323 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group has shifted to "bearish" and is overall rapidly strengthening. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 167,000, while short contracts amount to 173,000. The situation will continue to favor bears. In the second column, we see that the number of short positions has increased from 92,000 to 173,000 over the past three months. During the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211,000 to 167,000. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to resume the "bullish" trend. Several poor reports from the US have supported the euro, but in the long run, more is needed.News Calendar for the US and the European Union:EU – Change in Retail Trade Volume (09:00 UTC).On May 7th, the economic events calendar contains only one entry. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment for the rest of the day will be very weak.Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:Sales of the pair are possible today upon consolidation below the level of 1.0764 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0696. I would only consider buying the euro once the pair consolidates above the level of 1.0806 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0840 and 1.0874.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. May 7th. The pound feels a surge of strength ahead of the Bank of England meeting

May 7, 2024 | 03:17 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair executed a new reversal in favor of the American on Monday and headed towards the lower line of the ascending trend channel. A rebound of quotes from this line will maintain traders' "bullish" sentiment and allow for an expectation of a return to the level of 1.2611. The consolidation of the pair's rate below the channel will work in favor of the US currency and increase the likelihood of further decline towards the levels of 1.2464 and 1.2370.The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave is still too weak to break the peak from April 9th (although its formation has been ongoing for several weeks). Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion at the moment. The first sign of bulls turning the tide could be a break of the April 9th peak. A new downward wave, if it proves weak and fails to break the low from April 22nd, could also indicate a trend reversal.On Monday and Tuesday, there were no news releases from the UK or the US. However, the Bank of England meeting will conclude this Thursday, and this event could leave a mark on the GBP/USD pair charts. Also, this week will see the release of the UK GDP report for the first quarter. Thus, the pound may show strong movements this week. In order for the "bullish" sentiment in the market to be maintained, the Bank of England must take a "hawkish" stance and show no readiness to lower the interest rate in the foreseeable future. If this condition is met, the pound will continue to rise. However, some economists believe that the Bank of England is approaching its first rate cut. It is likely not at the next two meetings, but the Bank of England may start signaling its readiness for easing monetary policy as early as this week. In this case, the pound sterling may start to decline.On the 4-hour chart, the pair rose to the level of 1.2620 and rebounded from it. The upper line of the descending trend channel has been breached, but it is still too early to bury the "bearish" trend. This week, a decline towards the levels of 1.2450 and 1.2289 may begin. Consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 1.2620 will increase the likelihood of further growth towards the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.2745). There are no imminent divergences today.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" over the past reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 4791 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 2034 units. The overall sentiment of major players has changed, and now bears are dictating their terms in the market. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is 30,000: 43,000 versus 73,000.The prospects for a decline remain for the pound. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has decreased from 62,000 to 43,000, while the number of short positions has increased from 47,000 to 73,000. Over time, bulls will start to get rid of buy positions or increase sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. The bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete reluctance to go on the offensive in recent months. However, I still expect the pound to begin a more significant decline.News Calendar for the US and the UK:On Tuesday, the economic events calendar contains a few interesting entries. The impact of the information background on market sentiment will be absent today.Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:Sales of the Briton were possible upon consolidation on the hourly chart below the level of 1.2565, with a target of 1.2517. These trades can be held open today. New sales can be considered upon closing below the ascending trend corridor. Purchases can be considered upon a bounce from the lower boundary of the ascending channel with targets at 1.2565 and 1.2611.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Forecast: Momentum as Rises - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 02:43 am

The euro rallied slightly during the early hours on Monday as it looks like we are threatening the 200 day EMA.

Precious Metals: Retreating From Resistance After Bullish Move - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 02:24 am

Gold and Silver are holding up relatively well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have recently seen in commodity markets.

Demand for USD remains stable

May 7, 2024 | 02:03 am

After Friday's surge, the Euro and the pound sterling are losing momentum as the fuel for the growth of risky assets is gradually running out, and there is no new fundamental data.Statements by US politicians on the topic of interest rates and comments related to the labor market also did not go unnoticed. The message provided by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond had a positive influence on the market sentiment of those who bet on the purchase of the US dollar. The Fed spokesman said that high interest rates would eventually bring US inflation down to the central bank's 2% target. However, he did not comment on when that would happen. Barkin also noted that the strength of the labor market gave the Fed time to gain confidence that inflation was falling steadily before lowering borrowing costs. Despite what is happening, the policymaker believes there is still a risk that inflation, which has recently returned to growth, especially in the housing and services sectors, will continue to push prices higher. Barkin said that many sellers were still trying to raise prices, and would continue to do so until buyers refused new purchases. The risk is explained by commodity sector growth and inflation in the housing and services sectors. These factors could push the overall consumer price index back above the target. After the recent meeting, many economists continue to wonder if the Fed will really cut interest rates as quickly as was expected at the beginning of the year. Notably, many investors have been suffering from a zero rate policy for nearly two decades. Now that demand for US Treasury bonds has finally returned to its traditional role in the economy, a hasty easing of monetary policy could cause an unpleasant change not only in inflation but also in yields. Last year, bondholders received nearly $900 billion in annual interest on US government debt, double the average of the previous decade. Against this backdrop, no one is going to let the US dollar go for nothing. The bearish trend on the euro and the pound has not gone anywhere, even despite the corrections that we saw before the key events, namely, the Fed meeting and data on the US labor market. If the meeting of officials of regional banks in the USA did not give any new information, the data on the labor market is likely to shed light on what is happening in the economy in more detail. Lower activity in the services and manufacturing sectors could also provide traders with a more or less objective picture of the lack of GDP growth in the second quarter. Whether this will be enough for the Fed to make a policy reversal is very doubtful. As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, the euro remains in a channel. Now buyers need to think about how to reach the level of 1.0775. Only this will allow them to test 1.0810. From there, it is possible to climb to 1.0850, but it will be quite problematic to do it without support from the big players. The farthest target is seen at a high of 1.0885. In case of a decline, I expect any serious action from big buyers to be around 1.0740. Otherwise, it would be good to wait for an update of the 1.0705 low or open long positions from 1.0670. Meanwhile, buyers of the British pound cannot get out of the channel. Bulls need to take the nearest resistance at 1.2565. This will allow them to reach 1.2610, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The furthest target will be 1.2655, after which it will be possible to talk about a sharper rush to 1.2700. If the pair falls, bears will try to take control of 1.2530. If they manage to do so, a breakdown of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD to the 1.2500 low with the prospect of sliding to 1.2470. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound shrugs as construction PMI jumps

May 7, 2024 | 01:59 am

The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is down 0.21%, trading at 1.2535 in the European session at the time of writing. The UK construction PMI jumped to 53.0 in April, up from 50.2 in March and above the forecast of 50.4. This is only the second reading showing growth after six straight […]

USD/JPY Forecast: Debt Situation Dire - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 01:37 am

The dollar yen has recovered quite nicely during the Monday session, and we did start to see US dollar buying late on Friday as we approached the crucial 152 yen level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis - Tentative price action into the US CPI next week

May 7, 2024 | 01:29 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The EUR, on the other hand, has been gaining ground mainly because of the USD weakness and some positive news on the growth side as the PMIs continue to improve. The market has already fully priced in three rate cuts for the ECB this year, so that shouldn’t weigh much on the EUR anymore. The market will need something to give it a reason to price in a change in the Fed’s or ECB’s monetary policy to trigger another sustained move. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD spiked into the key trendline around the 1.08 handle following the soft US NFP report. The price eventually got rejected from the trendline and the market faded the spike as the data didn’t change much and we still have the US CPI risk ahead. The sellers will likely keep piling in around these levels to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking to the upside to increase the bullish bets into the 1.09 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.0727 level where we can find the confluence of the upward minor trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the downside to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty empty on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases left. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much though, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias might remain generally bullish because of the risk-on sentiment. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/NZD: Aussie medium-term outperformance against Kiwi intact supported by RBA

May 7, 2024 | 00:42 am

Today’s RBA monetary policy decision statement has kept the possibility of a rate hike before 2024 ends “alive”. The narrowing of the discount between Australia-New Zealand sovereign bonds yield spread has supported the potential continuation of the AUD/NZD medium-term uptrend phase. Watch the key medium-term support of 1.0940 on the AUD/NZD. The paths of inflationary […]

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.11; (P) 192.89; (R1) 194.11; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 193.86) will bring stronger rebound back toward 197.40 resistance. On the downside, below 191.34 will resume the correction from 200.53. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on May 7, 2024

May 7, 2024 | 00:32 am

The eurozone producer price index rose from -8.5% to -7.8%, but it had no effect on the situation, and the single currency stood still all day. Of course, we can say that this report was not crucial, but that wouldn't be right. After all, we are talking about the component part of inflation, which is an indicator of further dynamics. And considering that the dollar is still overbought, even small hints of inflation growth in Europe should support the euro. The reason why the market is stable is partly because the previous report was revised. The rate of decline increased from -8.3% to -8.5%. This offset the effect of the slowdown.Today, the single currency will get another chance to strengthen. This time it will be the retail sales report. The rate of decline is expected to slow down from -0.7% to -0.3%. And it turns out that consumer activity in Europe seems to be increasing, coupled with a hint of rising inflation. Which from the financial markets' perspective is a great thing. The EUR/USD pair has pulled back from the resistance level of 1.0800. As a result, the volume of short positions increased and this interrupted the upward cycle.On the four-hour chart, the RSI shows a decline, but the indicator is still hovering in the upper area of 50/70.On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which reflects the bullish sentiment.OutlookThe price must settle above the 1.0800 level in order for the volume of long positions to rise. Until then, the retracement stage will persist, and in case the price stays below 1.0750, the volume of short positions may continue to increase.Complex indicator analysis indicates a pullback from the resistance level in the short- and long-term timeframes.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:29 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.81; (P) 165.40; (R1) 166.34; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 166.084) will bring stronger rebound towards 168.64 resistance. On the downside, break of 164.01, and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 164.06) will extend […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:25 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8559; (P) 0.8571; (R1) 0.8584; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. Focus remains on 0.8582 resistance. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8582 resistance holds. Below 0.8529 will target 0.8491/7 support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8582 will bring stronger rise back to 0.8643 resistance instead. In […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Dax Forecast: Builds Case for Basing - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 00:22 am

You can see that the DAX did rally pretty significantly right off the bat here early Monday morning, but we are starting to see trouble in a very familiar area.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Finds Support Against Canadian Dollar - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 00:18 am

The U.S. dollar has been choppy against the Canadian dollar during early trading on Monday.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:17 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9740; (P) 0.9753; (R1) 0.9773; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to See Inflows - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 00:11 am

The S&P 500 rallied early during the trading session on Monday, as it looked like money was flowing back into Wall Street and stocks overall.

GBP/CHF Forecast: Finding Buyers Against Dips - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 00:05 am

The British Pound has bounced significantly from the 50 day EMA against the Swiss Franc in early trading on Monday as we continue to see the markets come in and try to pick up the momentum.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis - What changed after the RBA?

May 7, 2024 | 00:04 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The AUD, on the other hand, has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chances of a rate hike. The RBA today disappointed the hawks as it didn’t add any hawkish language in the statement and the RBA’s Governor Bullock sounded pretty neutral despite repeating the same old message that they are “not ruling anything in or out”. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the key resistance around the 0.6650 level held once again as the RBA disappointed the hawks. We might need a downside surprise in the US CPI report next week to see the AUDUSD pair breaking to the upside and extending the rally into new highs. For now, we remain in kind of a limbo where central banks keep rates higher for longer leading to big ranges across pairs with short term moves inside the ranges triggered by the repricing in expectations.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the trendline and it’s now near the 0.6577 level as the sellers regained some short term control. If we extend into the 0.6577 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level and position for a rally back into the key resistance zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see a clear break to the downside to pile in more aggressively and extend the drop into the 0.6464 swing low. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty empty on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases left. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much though, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias might remain generally bullish because of the risk-on sentiment. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Retail sales. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), data on retail sales in the EU is due. The indicator monthly records the totality of all goods retailers sold, based on a sample of retail outlets of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on a region’s gross domestic product. It may adjust from −0.5% to 0.6% MoM. Read more

CHF/JPY Forecast: Franc Rallies Against the Yen on Monday - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 23:59 pm

The Swiss franc has rallied against the Japanese yen again on Monday, as it looks like the Japanese yen is losing strength across the board.

Bitcoin Forex Signal: Pulls Back After Surge Higher - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Bitcoin initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday but seems as if it is giving back quite a bit of the gains.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Continues to Find Buyers - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 23:44 pm

The Nasdaq 100 rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday.

AUD/USD Forecast: Reaches Resistance - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 23:39 pm

The Australian dollar has rallied early during the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to threaten a major resistance barrier just above.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Double Top at $0.6645 - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 23:33 pm

Firm support likely in $0.6590 area.

Construction PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the construction sector is due in the UK. The indicator reflects the state of business sentiment in the construction market based on a survey of managers of the country’s largest companies. It may rise from 50.2 points to 50.4 points. Read more

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Analysis Ahead of BoE Rate Decision - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 23:25 pm

The GBP/USD exchange rate moved sideways on a quiet day on Monday since the UK’s market was closed for a bank holiday.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0753; (P) 1.0772; (R1) 1.0789; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. But further rally will be mildly in favor as long as 1.0648 support holds. Above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. In the bigger picture, […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 23:14 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2565; (R1) 1.2591; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations could be seen. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2471 support holds. Above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions from […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 23:11 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9043; (P) 0.9056; (R1) 0.9076; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations could be seen. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8996) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 23:08 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.12; (P) 153.57; (R1) 154.34; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.81) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume the fall from 160.20. But strong support should be seen […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 23:04 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3643; (P) 1.3670; (R1) 1.3692; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. Further break of 1.3845 will resume larger rise from 1.3176 towards 1.3976 key resistance next. However, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3618) will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed already, and target […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Forecast Ahead of Fed speak - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 22:54 pm

The EUR/USD exchange rate held steady on Monday and Tuesday morning as focus remained on the recent weak US economic numbers and their impact on the Federal Reserve.

AUD/USD Daily Report

May 6, 2024 | 22:36 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6608; (P) 0.6623; (R1) 0.6642; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen but further rally is expected as long as 0.6464 support holds. As noted before, fall from 0.6870 could have completed with three waves down to 0.6361. Above 0.6645 will target 100% […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Inverse Head and Shoulders is Slowly Forming - 07 May 2024

May 6, 2024 | 22:32 pm

Bitcoin price rose to a two-week high of $65,525 on Monday and then quickly erased some of those gains to trade at $63,225 on Tuesday morning.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 7. Simple tips for beginners

May 6, 2024 | 21:27 pm

Analyzing Monday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair also tried to continue its upward movement on Monday, which has been ongoing for several weeks, but the price failed to reach its recent local high near the 1.2611 level. This is quite good because even if the recent US macro data have been disappointing, the fundamental background still remains in favor of the US dollar. The British pound has been rising for too long over the past year and has stayed at peak levels for too long instead of showing a decline. Therefore, we still expect the pound to fall, especially now that the price has breached the ascending trend line.There were no significant events on Monday. Therefore, volatility was quite weak. However, the Bank of England meeting is scheduled for this week, so the market may become more active as early as today. Market participants often begin to anticipate the central bank meeting in advance.GBP/USD on 5M chart A buy signal was formed on the 5-minute timeframe. Early in the morning, the price bounced off the range of 1.2541-1.2547, so novice traders could open long positions. Throughout the day, the pair managed to rise by about 30 pips, but it couldn't reach the nearest target area. By the end of the day, it returned to the area where the signal was formed, so it wasn't possible to earn much from this trade. This was also unlikely because volatility was weak on Monday.Trading tips on Tuesday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. This corrective phase has been quite strong and it appears logical. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. On Tuesday, investors can initiate trade from the range of 1.2541-1.2547. Traders may open new long positions while aiming for 1.2605 once the price rebounds from the aforementioned range. If the price consolidates below this mark, it may signal the beginning of a new downtrend, so in this case, short positions can be opened with 1.2502 as the target.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. Today, there are no scheduled events or reports in the UK and the US. Therefore, we don't expect strong movements.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 7. Simple tips for beginners

May 6, 2024 | 21:19 pm

Analyzing Monday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD did not show any interesting movements on Monday. There was one attempt to trade higher during the day, but it quickly fizzled out. The overall volatility of the day was 35 pips, so we witnessed another "boring Monday." Traders failed to overcome the level of 1.0785 on the second attempt, giving hope for the end of the bullish correction, which has persisted for too long. There were quite concrete and reasonable reasons for this, as the US has been publishing disappointing macro data for the past two weeks. However, the Federal Reserve's meeting appeared more hawkish than many market participants thought. Fed Chair Jerome Powell openly signaled that rate cuts aren't imminent. Therefore, the rate will remain at its peak for a longer time. This is a bullish factor for the US currency.EUR/USD on 5M chart Only one trading signal was formed on the 5-minute timeframe. At the beginning of the US trading session, the pair bounced off the 1.0785-1.0797 area, after which it managed to fall by about 8 pips until the end of the day. A short position can be left open for Tuesday, as the price may fall by another 20-30 pips. We shouldn't expect a larger movement due to low volatility, and there may also be few trading signals.Trading tips on Tuesday:On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair is going through a corrective phase. We believe that the decline should resume in the medium term, as the euro remains relatively high, and in general, the global trend is pointed downwards. The fundamental background still works in favor of the US dollar, and the latest FOMC meeting supports this - now Powell doesn't even know when monetary policy easing will begin.On Tuesday, it is reasonable to maintain short positions, as the price rebounded from the 1.0785-1.0797 area on Monday, and the uptrend has remained intact for too long. However, overcoming this area will make it possible for traders to reconsider intraday purchases aiming for 1.0838-1.0856.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725-1.0733, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Today, the EU retail sales report will be published, and this is the only event of the day. The US event calendar is empty. Most likely, we can expect very weak movements again.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Growth continues: Wall Street in green for third day in a row

May 6, 2024 | 21:11 pm

American stock indices ended trading higher on Monday, marking their third consecutive positive session. Investors are once again raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year. Global stock indicators also rose amid optimism about a likely rate cut. At the same time, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar after a sharp rise last week associated with the proposed currency intervention. Expectations for US central bank rate cuts fell during the year due to more persistent inflation. Some investors began to fear that a rate cut would not materialize at all, sending markets tumbling in April. However, Friday's data showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April. That eased pressure on the Federal Reserve, making it less likely that rates would remain high for long. Combined with an unexpectedly positive corporate earnings season, this has given investors fresh momentum in recent sessions. Last week, the Fed signaled it was willing to consider cutting interest rates but wanted to make sure inflation was falling sustainably before making that decision. Fed officials repeated that statement Monday. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the current level of interest rates should slow the economy enough to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. However, a strong labor market provides time to wait. Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 46 basis points by the end of 2024, with the first cut forecast in September or November, according to rate probability app LSEG. Stocks on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as in Asia, rose. The US labor market report on Friday was softer than expected, leading to renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy as early as September. The dollar index, which measures the US currency's exchange rate against six major trading partners, fell for the fourth session in a row. It comes after Friday's data showed the weakest job growth since October, allaying fears that the Fed could raise rates again. However, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain as the market hopes interest rates will be restrictive enough to slow the economy and reduce the rate of price increases, Conger said. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 176.59 points, or 0.46%, to 38,852.27. The S&P 500 added 52.95 points, or 1.03%, to 5,180.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 192.92 points, or 1.19%, to 16,349.25. Most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended trading on a positive note. The energy sector was one of the top gainers, thanks in part to U.S. natural gas futures hitting their highest level in 14 weeks. Chipmaker shares were broadly higher on Monday, including Arm Holdings, which added 5.2% ahead of this week's earnings release. Micron Technology (MU.O) shares rose 4.7% after Baird upgraded the stock. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) also rose 3.4% and 6.1%, respectively, regaining ground lost after last week's disappointing earnings. Paramount Global (PARA.O) shares rose 3.1% after exclusive talks with Skydance Media ended without a deal, allowing a special committee to consider offers from other bidders. Tyson Foods (TSN.N) shares fell 5.7% despite beating Wall Street's second-quarter profit expectations as the company warned of pressure on consumers from persistent inflation. At the same time, shares of Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) fell 9.7% to a record low after weak guidance for second-quarter earnings. The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 150 new highs and 54 new lows. In Europe, the cross-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.53%. It comes amid signs the European Central Bank is confident of cutting rates as euro zone inflation continues to slow, three ECB policy makers said. Philip Lane, Gediminas Simkus and Boris Vujicic said inflation and growth data supported their belief that eurozone inflation, which stood at 2.4% in April, would fall to the central bank's 2% target by the middle of next year. of the year. The MSCI World Shares Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.50% to close at 1,066.73, its highest level since June 2022. Markets in the UK and Japan were closed due to holidays. The dollar index was down 0.07% at 105.10, lifting the euro 0.07% to $1.0766. Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 earnings per share growth forecast for companies in the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) to 6% from 3%. The bank noted that a 10% annual rise in Brent oil prices adds about 2.5 percentage points to annual earnings per share growth, and a 10% decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate adds about the same. Treasury yields fell as investors weighed in on sluggish job creation last week, bolstering views that the U.S. economy is not overheated and will not be hampered by rate cuts. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 1.3 basis points to 4.487% from 4.5% late Friday. Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 43 basis points by year-end, with the first cut likely to come in September, according to rate probability app LSEG. Traders have cut their expectations to one cut in recent weeks due to signs of persistent inflation. Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia raised June crude oil prices for most regions. In addition, the unlikely prospect of a quick ceasefire in the Gaza Strip has revived fears of renewed fighting between Hamas and Israeli forces. U.S. crude rose 37 cents to $78.48 a barrel and Brent crude rose 37 cents to $83.33 a barrel. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) hit its highest level since February 2023, adding 0.66%, while the blue-chip China index (.CSI300) rose 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose 4.7% last week, posting its longest daily winning streak since 2018. The index closed 0.55% higher on Monday. Elsewhere, traders remain wary of potential yen volatility following past suspicions that Japanese authorities would intervene to stem the currency's sharp decline. Tokyo is believed to have spent more than 9 trillion yen ($59 billion) to prop up its currency last week,[…]

Trade balance. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in Germany. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. It may adjust from 21.4B euros to 22.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

Factory orders. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of industrial orders is due in Germany. This indicator records the number of orders for durable and non-durable goods. It may change from 0.2% to 0.4%, supporting the euro. Read more

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for May 7-9, 2024: buy above 1.0780 (symmetrical triangle - 4/8 Murray)

May 6, 2024 | 20:46 pm

Early in the European session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0762, showing signs of exhaustion and going through a technical correction below 5/8 Murray (1.0803).On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. We believe that if a break occurs above 1.0880, the euro could resume its bullish cycle and reach 1.0803 and at 6/8 Murray located at 1.0864.On the other hand, in case the euro breaks sharply below 4/8 Murray and consolidates below the 200 EMA, we could look for opportunities to sell, with the target at 2/8 Murray located at 1.0682.The euro could continue trading within the uptrend channel in the coming days only if it consolidates above the 200 EMA, 21 SMA, and above 4/8 Murray.If the pair manages to bounce above this area, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy. On the contrary, with a fall below these two moving averages, we could expect a change in the trend.Since April 24, the eagle indicator has been showing overbought signals but the euro is determined to continue rising. However, every time the price reaches resistance, the euro makes a technical correction and rises again. If this scenario occurs, we could look for opportunities to buy above 1.0740.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Unemployment rate. Switzerland, 07:45 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 20:45 pm

At 07:45 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish April data on the unemployment rate – an indicator that records the percentage of registered unemployed over 18 years to the total working-age population. The non-seasonally adjusted value may grow from 2.4% and the seasonally adjusted value from 2.3%, putting pressure on the franc. Read more

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 7, 2024

May 6, 2024 | 19:52 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, the euro made another attempt to rise. The daily balance indicator line stopped the price from rising. The pair was up 7 pips. The euro failed to trade higher against the backdrop of a strong rise in the stock market – the S&P 500 added 1.03%. There was no significant movement in the bond market either. The stock market's rise was partly due to Hamas' statement about a ceasefire, and partly because investors continued to play out the prospect of the Federal Reserve maintaining its rate for a longer period.A strong pessimistic reason is needed to change the market's mood. But the euro also needs an optimistic reason to rise. For now, the single currency is trying to settle in the neutral range of 1.0757/96, or even in the extended range of 1.0724/96. More precisely, the upper boundary of the range is represented by the MACD indicator line at the level of 1.0807. Over time, this boundary decreases and will coincide with the level of 1.0796. If the price consolidates above 1.0796, it will open the target level of 1.0905. But in order to do so, the stock market must surge so that the euro can prepare before the European Central Bank rate cut on June 6.On the 4-hour chart, the euro is moving sideways above both indicator lines with a declining Marlin oscillator. Time is currently on the euro's side – encouraging market participants to open long positions during consolidation. However, this may be a trap for the bulls. Our main scenario is bearish.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 7, 2024

May 6, 2024 | 19:49 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the British pound closed the day higher, but it only happened for the sake of solidarity with other counter-dollar currencies. However, the quote did not reach the target level of 1.2596, let alone the embedded line of the turquoise-colored price channel, which is slightly above this level. In fact, the balance indicator line stopped the rise. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is slowly turning downwards.We believe that the price will not put an effort to either rise or fall until the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. All 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee are expected to vote to keep the rate unchanged, but there may be a surprise that could exert pressure on the pound. Price consolidation below the level of 1.2525 opens the target of 1.2427, and then it may continue to fall to 1.2370.On the 4-hour chart, the price and the Marlin oscillator are clearly forming sideways movement. The support at 1.2525 is strengthened by the approaching MACD line, so its status is elevated from an intermediate level to a standard one, and breaking it may reinforce bearish price movement.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on May 7, 2024

May 6, 2024 | 19:47 pm

USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair is trying to recover after a six-digit decline to the magnetic point formed by the intersection of the balance and MACD lines on the daily chart. The price is moving towards the target level of 155.75, but it will only reach this mark if the Marlin oscillator does not turn back from the zero line but surpasses it instead.If the price heads downwards, it may break through the support of the MACD line (152.77) and target the level of 150.90. From this level, the pair could go through a correction from the decline from the April 29 peak.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is also contemplating a possible downturn. If we don't see a reversal today, the price will continue to correct higher and reach 155.75, which is near the area where the MACD is located, reinforcing it.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Crude Oil Commodity Asset, Tuesday May 7, 2024.

May 6, 2024 | 19:45 pm

Although on the 4 hour chart, Crude Oil Commodity still dominates with Seller where this is confirmed by MA 50 which is below MA 200, but with the appearance of Descending Broadening Wedge pattern on the daily chart, then will gives the clue if there is still has the potential of correction to strengthen on #CL especially if the weakness that occurs currently has not break below level 77,50. Then in the near future, #CL has the potential to test and break above level area 79,61-79,89 if this level area managed to be broken then #CL has the potential to continue its strengthen in the near future up to the level 81,57 and if the momentum as well as the volatility is supporting then level 84,45 is not impossible thing to aimed of.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Gold Commodity Asset, Tuesday May 7, 2024.

May 6, 2024 | 19:45 pm

Although on the 4 hour chart Gold commodity asset MA 20 still below MA 50 which indicates the Seller pressure is still exists but with the failure of Gold to break below level support area 2288,28-2276,77 gives the clue that in the near future, as long as the level area does not break below, the Gold has the potential to return strengthen where if the level 2331,56 broken above, Gold has the potential to continue its strengthen up to the level 2351,85 as the first target and if the momentum as well as volatility is supporting then level 2386,35 will be the next target to be aimed.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Interest rate decision. Australia, 06:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 19:30 pm

At 06:30 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. Officials are likely to keep the value at the current level of 4.35%. The accompanying statement may contain an assessment of the country’s financial authorities regarding the current state of the economy against global geopolitical tensions. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOE, RBA, China trade and inflation data on the radar for this week

May 6, 2024 | 18:08 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, two central banks’ monetary policy to ponder on ex-post “not so hawkish” FOMC last week engineered by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. In the Asia pacific region, we will have RBA meeting on Tuesday (7 May) […]

Retail sales. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Australia will release Q1 retail sales data, a key indicator of consumer spending that has a significant impact on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It may change from 0.3% to −0.2% MoM, putting pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2) in Japan, the April index of business activity in the service sector from the national Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is due. The indicator reflects the total cost of services purchased by companies in key service industries (excluding manufacturing) and is a leading indicator of the Tankan Business Activity Index. It may rise from 54.1 points to 54.6 points, supporting the yen. Read more

BRC retail sales monitor. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), April retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) is due. The indicator considers the dynamics of sales of goods in stores open for at least a year based on the information they regularly provide. The April value may change from 3.2% to 1.8%, supporting the pound. Read more

USDJPY stays above the 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart. Buyers in control above the MA.

May 6, 2024 | 13:31 pm

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD moved to 50% retracement and stalled. The price rotated lower. What next?

May 6, 2024 | 12:38 pm

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD is higher on the day but a ceiling area continues to stall the rallies

May 6, 2024 | 08:39 am

The AUDUSD raced higher on Friday, but found willing sellers near a key swing area between 0.6635 and 0.6648, before rotating back to the downside. In trading today, the price will back up to retest that swing area only to find willing sellers again. Needless to say, getting above that area is needed to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, traders will be watching for close support near the 50% midpoint of the range since the December high. That level comes in at 0.66159. If the price can stay above the midpoint level, the aforementioned ceiling area remains a key target to get to and through to give the buyers even more control.Conversely, on a move back below the 50% midpoint level, traders could see the price rotate back down for a retest of its 100-day moving average currently at 0.6579. That moving average level would be another key barometer for both buyers and sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Yen rally fizzles as US dollar climbs

May 6, 2024 | 08:29 am

The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Monday after stringing together a three-day rally. USD/JPY is trading at 153.92, up 0.62% at the time of writing. The yen took traders on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Japanese yen fell below the 160 level on Monday, setting another 34-year record before recovering. On Wednesday, the […]

USDCAD tests a key support level at 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

May 6, 2024 | 07:51 am

The USDCAD bounce sharply higher after falling after the US jobs report on Friday. The move to the upside ended up retracing all of the declines and the pair closed higher on the day. Note that the high price on Friday stalled against its 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 1.3692. See the chart above). In trading today, the initial move was to the upside with the pair extending above its 200 hour moving out in the process. That should have led to increased momentum to the upside. Instead, the break failed, and buyers turned to sellers.In the early US session, we've seen an extension to the downside, with the price now moving below its 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36617. The price has also moved below a swing area between 1.3654 and 1.3668. However, support against the 200 more moving average on the 4-hour chart is providing a support for the pair. That level comes in at 1.3647What next?Get below the 200 bar moving average and stay below should increase the bearish bias with the 1.36319 as the next target. That level was the swing lows from April 26 and April 29 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF rotates modestly lower after a sharp move lower last week. What levels are in play?

May 6, 2024 | 07:22 am

The USDCHF fell on Friday to a key support target near the 0.9000. That came after the pair on Monday, moved up to test a key resistance target on the daily chart before reversing lower.The video above outlines the moves and discusses what next in the short term for the pair given the price action and technical levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro edges higher as eurozone data improves

May 6, 2024 | 06:25 am

The euro has started the new trading week quietly. EUR/USD is up 0.23%, trading at 1.0787 in the North American session at the time of trading. Eurozone investor confidence shows slight improvement The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index took a small step forward in May, rising to -3.6, up from -5.9 in April and was […]

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 06:25 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0720; (P) 1.0766; (R1) 1.0809; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays on the upside at this point. Fall from 1.0980 could have completed with three waves down to 1.0601. Further rally is expected and firm break of 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0752 from 1.0648 at 1.0799 will pave the way to […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for May 6 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 6, 2024 | 06:22 am

The US stocks are marginally higher in premarket trading. Yields are marginally lower. The USD is mixed.In the kickstart video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start the trading week in the US session. What technical levels are in play and more importantly why. Kickstart your day/week, by knowing where we are and where we may be going from a technical perspective. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 06:20 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2491; (P) 1.2564; (R1) 1.2619; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains mildly on the upside at this point. Fall from 1.2892 could have completed with three waves down to 1.2298. Further rise should be seen and break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2568 from 1.2471 will target 100% projection at 1.2741. […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 06:18 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.95; (P) 152.90; (R1) 153.92; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.95) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume the fall from 160.20. But strong support should be seen from […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 06:03 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9001; (P) 0.9055; (R1) 0.9104; More…. Outlook in USD/CHF is unchanged and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.8993) will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.8332 to 0.9223 at 0.8883. On the upside, above 0.9087 minor resistance will turn intraday bias again […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 6, 2024 | 05:12 am

The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mostly lower with modest declines of -0.08% to -0.26% for the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, and NZD. The greenback is unchanged vs the CHF and stronger by 0.52% vs the JPY after its -3.38% decline last week - the largest one-week decline since early November 2022. Today is another "day after". Last week we had the day after the FOMC meeting and press conference where Chair Powell was less hawkish. Today, we are having another "day after" this time the weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll. That report saw Non-farm payroll jobs came in at 175K vs 238K expected, with the unemployment rate moving up to 3.9% from 3.8% previously. The hourly earnings declined to 3.9% its lowest level since 2021. So the two big events sent rates lower (10-year down 15.5 basis points), the USD lower (DXY down close to 1%), and stocks higher (S&P up +.55% after being down -1.70% at session lows on Wednesday).PS it is also the "week after" another big earnings week which completed the earnings announcements for this cycle for nearly all the high flyers except Nvidia which does not report until May 22. Nevertheless this week, there are still some interesting names reporting including:Monday, May 6: Berkshire Hathaway (over the weekend), Palantir * Lucid *Tuesday, May 7: Walt Disney, Celsius, Crocs, Ferrari, BP, Rivian *,Upstart *, Wynn *, Lyft*, Twilio *, Toast *Wednesday, May 8: Uber, Shopify, Toyota, Arm Holding *, AirBNB *,Beyond Meat *Thursday, May 9: Roblox, Warner Bros. discovery, Marathon oil, Unity SoftwareToday (the day after) yields are down (10-year yield down -1.5 basis points), the USD is mostly lower and the S&P is up (17 points or 0.33%).The economic calendar is void of any releases. Offer fats parking areas to speak at 4:50 PM ET, and NY Fed Pres. Williams is scheduled for 1 PM. Note that UK markets are closed todayA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.90 at $79.02. At this time Friday, the price was at $79.19. For the week crude oil prices are down by 6.83%Gold is trading up $16.44 or 0.72% at $2318.48. At this time Friday, the price was higher at $2297.47. For the week gold prices are down - 1.54%Silver is trading up $0.54 or 2.07% at $27.10. At this time Friday, the price was at $26.46Bitcoin currently trades at $64,260. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $59,149. In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher ahead of the key US jobs reportDow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 136 points. Friday, the index closed up 450.02 points or 1.18% at 38675.69. For the week, the index rose 1.14%S&P futures are implying a gain of 18.46 points. Friday, the index rose 63.61 points or 1.26% at 5127.80. For the week, the index rose 0.55%.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 48.71 points. Friday, the index rose 315.37 points or 1.99% at 16156.33. For the week, the index rose 1.43% yesterday.European markets are trading higher:German DAX, 1.05%. Last week, the index fell -0.88%.France CAC , 0.92%. Last week, the index fell -1.62%UK FTSE 100, on holiday.. Last week, the index is rose 3.09%Spain's Ibex, 0.72%. Last week, the index fell -2.69%Italy's FTSE MIB, 1.15% (delayed 10 minutes).. Last week, the index fell -1.81%Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixedJapan's Nikkei 225, -0.10%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.16%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, was 0.55%Australia S&P/ASX index, was 0.70%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower ahead of US jobs report:2-year yield 4.799%, -0.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.866%5-year yield 4.472%, -0.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.548%10-year yield 4.489%, -4.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.556%30-year yield 4.649%, -1.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.705%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -31.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.9 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -15.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -16.0 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Analysis: Has the Trend Turned Bearish?

May 6, 2024 | 04:45 am

The Japanese yen was in the spotlight last week as concerns about its future continued.

USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Stable

May 6, 2024 | 04:41 am

Trading of the US dollar against the Turkish lira has stabilized for the third consecutive week.

GBP/USD Analysis: Cautious Watching for BOE Decisions

May 6, 2024 | 04:34 am

The Bank of England may this week provide a clearer signal on whether it plans to cut interest rates this summer, just as investors bet on delayed easing expectations.

EUR/USD Analysis: After US Jobs Numbers

May 6, 2024 | 04:27 am

The EUR/USD currency pair extended gains to the resistance level 1.0812 on the back of weaker-than-expected US jobs data and settled around 1.0760 at the start of trading this week

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Dip-buyers are back in force.

May 6, 2024 | 04:22 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced on the strong support zone around the 152.00 handle where we had the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers stepped in and bought the dip offered by the miss in the US NFP report as that didn’t change much for the bigger picture. The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to change the bias and start looking for new lows with the 146.00 handle as the first target.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a strong resistance around the 155.00 handle where we can also find the downward trendline defining the current short-term bearish trend. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline and position for a break below the 152.00 support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 160.00 handle. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the Japanese wage data and the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Analysis: Bears Await Strong Factors

May 6, 2024 | 04:12 am

Gold futures remained flat at the end of the trading week and settled above the $2,300 level per ounce.

USD/ZAR Analysis: Move Lower Amidst Worrying Trading Considerations

May 6, 2024 | 03:50 am

The move lower in the USD/ZAR which started with a solid dose of price velocity on the 25th of April has continued into early trading this morning.

USD/MXN Analysis: Renewed Trend Lower on Speculative Bearish Trading

May 6, 2024 | 03:40 am

The USD/MXN touched a low around 16.83000 on Friday in the midst of strong selling momentum.

Yen Selling Off Again: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY Forecast

May 6, 2024 | 03:05 am

The Japanese Yen is now being sold despite its firm rise last week after two cases of suspected Bank of Japan intervention.

AUD/USD Forecast: Consolidation Range

May 6, 2024 | 03:03 am

The Aussie dollar rallied during the early hours on Friday to show signs of strength as we reached the 0.6650 level.

USD/JPY Forecast: Plunges to Reach Support

May 6, 2024 | 02:52 am

The US dollar has fallen rather significantly during the course of the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a massive correction.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis - The pair is at a key resistance ahead of the RBA

May 6, 2024 | 02:47 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. The AUD has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chances of a rate hike. AUDUSD Technical Analysis - Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the price has now reached a key resistance zone around the 0.6650 level where the pair got rejected several times in the past few months. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance and position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the upside to pile in with more conviction and start targeting the cycle highs. AUDUSD Technical Analysis - 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current uptrend on this timeframe with a minor support zone around the 0.66 handle. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers leaning on it to position for a hawkish RBA decision and targeting a break above the resistance zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start piling in and increase the bearish bets in case the RBA disappoints. A break below the 0.6577 level should technically reverse the trend and open up room for a drop into the 0.6465 swing low. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front as we have just the RBA decision tomorrow, the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. We might see some risk-on sentiment this week following the US data on Friday, so even if the RBA disappoints, the USD could still remain under pressure. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF Technical Analysis - The pair bounced from the 0.90 handle

May 6, 2024 | 02:10 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. On the other hand, the CHF appreciated substantially following the higher than expected Swiss CPI figures last Thursday. The market paired back a little the very dovish pricing for the SNB and now sees just a 60% chance of a rate cut in June. Overall, this shouldn't change much for the SNB as they have already projected in March that CPI would average 1.4% in Q2, so that's not really a surprise for them. USDCHF Technical Analysis - Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF got rejected from the 0.92 handle and dropped all the way down to the key 0.90 handle helped by the more dovish than expected Fed and the higher than expected Swiss inflation figures. We can notice that the pair hasn't been able to break below the 0.90 level as the buyers kept on buying the dips. This makes it a key support going forward as a break to the downside might trigger a bigger selloff with the buyers folding and the sellers piling in more aggressively. USDCHF Technical Analysis - 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 0.91 handle where they will also find the previous support now turned resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the highs. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Buyers After a Big Dip

May 6, 2024 | 01:59 am

At this point in time, it looks like Bitcoin is trying to come back and break higher as the overall uptrend looks to be reasserting itself.

Gold Technical: A floor may have been formed for the bulls

May 6, 2024 | 01:46 am

Stagflation risk is still lingering as indicated by the latest April US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. A not fully priced-in stagflation risk scenario may support another bullish impulsive upmove sequence for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key medium-term pivotal zone of US$2,260/2,210 for Gold (XAU/USD). This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, […]

AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision next

May 6, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. RBA widely expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to […]

Gold Technical Analysis

May 6, 2024 | 00:42 am

After some erratic price action following the US data release on Friday, Gold found some footing as the buyers started to pile in with more conviction after a key breakout and the US data setting aside the inflation fears a little. Given the lack of data this week, we might see the market continuing to trade based on the Friday’s numbers into the US CPI next week. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold recently fell below a key trendline that was defining the bullish momentum that started from the lows around the 2000 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 2150 level where there’s also another major trendline for confluence. The US data on Friday might have invalidated the bigger correction for the time being, so the sellers will likely need to wait for another catalyst to push the price lower. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the downward trendline that was defining the short term bearish trend. The buyers are starting to pile in with more conviction and a break above the 2320 high should trigger a stronger rally into the 2352 swing level. That’s where we will likely find the sellers defending the level and stepping in with a defined risk just above it to position for a drop into new lows. A break above that level should technically invalidate the bearish setup and turn the short-term trend around. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week but with a slightly bullish bias. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Producer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the producer price index in the EU is due. The indicator reflects changes in the price of goods at the wholesale level (raw materials, semi-finished products and final goods are taken into account). Increasing prices for producers contributes to the growth of consumer inflation in the region. A decrease of the indicator from –8.3% YoY and from –1.0% MoM will put pressure on the euro. Read more

Sentix investor confidence. EU, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), the May EU Investor Confidence Index from Sentix is due. The indicator reflects investor confidence in the economic prospects of the region. It may accelerate the decline from −5.9 points, putting pressure on the euro and negatively affect the dynamics of the EU stock market. Read more

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 5, 2024 | 23:15 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0720; (P) 1.0766; (R1) 1.0809; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Fall from 1.0980 could have completed with three waves down to 1.0601. Further rally is expected and firm break of 100% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0752 from 1.0648 at 1.0799 will pave the way to […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

May 5, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2491; (P) 1.2564; (R1) 1.2619; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside for the moment. Fall from 1.2892 could have completed with three waves down to 1.2298. Further rise should be seen and break of 61.8% projection of 1.2298 to 1.2568 from 1.2471 will target 100% projection at 1.2741. For […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April index of business activity in the EU services sector is due, based on a survey of purchasing managers of non-manufacturing enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The April index may decrease from 51.5 points to 51.1 points, and the composite value – from 51.4 points to 49.9 points. Read more

Service PMI. Germany, 09:55 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 22:55 pm

At 09:55 (GMT+2), the April index of business activity in the German services sector is due, based on a survey of supply managers of non-production enterprises, and their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The April index may decrease from 53.3 points to 50.6 points, and the composite value – from 50.5 points to 48.6 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Caixin Manufacturing PMI. China, 03:45 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 16:45 pm

At 03:45 (GMT+2), China will publish April data on the manufacturing business activity index from Caixin. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. It may grow from 52.7 points, supporting the yuan. Read more

Major US indices close higher for the day and the week

May 3, 2024 | 13:21 pm

The 3 major US stock indices closed higher today and this week. The gains were led by the NASDAQ on both measures.A summary of the day shows:Dow Industrial Average rose 450.02 points or 1.18% at 38675.69S&P index rose 63.61 points or 1.26% at 5127.80NASDAQ index rose 315.37 points or 1.99% at 16156.33For the trading week:Dow Industrial Average average rose 1.14%S&P index rose 0.55%NASDAQ index rose 1.43%Looking at the small-cap Russell 2000, it rose 0.97% for the day, and also closed higher for the week by 1.684%.Looking at the daily chart of the S&P index, it is closing just below its 50-day moving average at 5129.98. Getting above that moving average is needed to increase the bullish bias from a technical perspective (see chart below).For the NASDAQ index, it get above its 50-day moving average today and stayed above that moving average. That is more bullish technically.For the trading week what major stocks had great weeks?Beyond Meat +26.56% (they announce earnings next week)Moderna, +15.77%Trump Media +15.38% (that despite the issuance of a more stock that was given to former Pres. Trump.)Amgen, +15.32%Snap +11.68%Pfizer +9.61%Roblox, +9.08% (they announce next week).Qualcomm +8.44% (they announced earnings this week)Apple +8.30%Tesla +7.64%Boeing, +7.50%Shopify 4.40% (they announce next week)Celcius 3.76% (they announce next week)Amazon, +3.69%Palantir (they announce next week) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD buyers took their shot above 200 day MA/50% retracement and missed

May 3, 2024 | 12:24 pm

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. Earlier, the number of towers remained at 511 pieces. Read more

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the April service business activity index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is due in the United States, based on a survey of representatives of 375 companies from 17 non-manufacturing sectors and reflecting business conditions in the country. The indicator may adjust from 51.4 points to 52.0 points in April. Read more

NZ dollar higher as nonfarm payrolls looms

May 3, 2024 | 04:28 am

The New Zealand dollar has extended its gains on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5985, up 0.39% at the time of writing. It has been a roller-coaster ride for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 1.5% on Tuesday but has since rebounded and fully recovered. US nonfarm payrolls expected to ease The US economy remains […]

Pound edges higher as UK Services PMI beats estimate

May 3, 2024 | 03:32 am

The British is in positive territory on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2555, up 0.16% at the time of writing. UK Services PMI hits 11-month high The service sector accelerated in April, as the Services PMI rose to 55.0, up from 53.1 in April. This was the strongest level since May 2023 and services has […]

Average hourly wage. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the US, April data on average hourly wages is due, recording changes in the level for major types of industry, except agriculture. In April, the figure is likely to remain at 0.3%. Read more

Unemployment rate. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on the unemployment rate. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed citizens over 18 years to the total working-age population. In April, the figure is likely to remain at 3.8%. Read more

Nonfarm payrolls. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. It is a key indicator of employment in the country, based on payroll data. It may decrease from 303.0K to 243.0K, and the same figure for the private non-agricultural sector – from 232.0K to 180.0K, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Nasdaq 100: Sandwiched, watch the US 10-year Treasury yield next

May 3, 2024 | 02:42 am

Nasdaq 100 has exhibited short-term intraday wild gyrations of 3% to 4% in opposite directions since last week. Today’s data focus will be on US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI for April to offer clues on whether the stagflation risk narrative is still alive. Macro factors such as the movement of the US 10-year […]

USD/JPY calm ahead of US nonfarm payrolls

May 3, 2024 | 01:53 am

The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 153.26, down 0.27% at the time of writing. It has been a week to remember as the yen has soared 3.2% against the dollar. The yen fell below the 160 level earlier in the week, setting another 34-year record. However, the Japan’s […]

Unemployment rate. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the unemployment rate in the EU countries is due – an indicator that records the percentage of registered unemployed over 18 years to the total working-age population. The rate may remain at 6.5% in March. Read more

Service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), the April index of business activity in the UK services sector is due, based on a survey of supply managers at non-production enterprises in the country, and assesses the respondents’ attitude to the current economic situation. It may rise from 53.1 points to 54.9 points in April and the composite value from 52.8 points to 54.0 points. Read more

Consumer price index. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), Turkey will publish the April consumer price index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in the cost of a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the monetary policy decisions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. It may increase from 3.16% to 3.50% MoM and from 68.50% to 69.10% YoY. Read more

AUD/USD jumps after Fed says rate hike unlikely

May 2, 2024 | 07:04 am

The Australian dollar has steadied after two straight days of sharp swings. AUD/USD is up 0.14%, trading at 0.6532 at the time of writing in the North American session. It has been a roller-coaster for the Australian dollar this week. The Aussie fell 1.4% on Tuesday, as weak Australian retail sales and a decline in […]

Canadian dollar edges higher as Fed pauses again

May 2, 2024 | 05:07 am

USD/CAD is steady on Thursday and is trading at 1.3720, down 0.14% at the time of writing. Powell says inflation still too high to lower rates The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark rate in the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% for a six straight time at the Wednesday meeting. Fed Chair Powell said that […]

Factory orders. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of industrial orders is due in the United States. This indicator captures the change in the number of orders for durable and non-durable goods. The figure may change from 1.4% to 1.6%, supporting the American dollar. Read more

USD/JPY slides – did Tokyo intervene?

May 2, 2024 | 03:59 am

It has been a remarkable week for the yen, which has exhibited sharp swings throughout the week. The Japanese yen fell as much as 1% earlier and on Thursday but has pared most of those losses. USD/JPY has risen 0.38% to 155.19 at the time of writing. In the Asian session, the yen fell as […]

Trade balance. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), March data on the US trade balance is due. This indicator records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods; its increase is a positive factor for the national currency. The balance sheet deficit may accelerate from –68.90B American dollars to –69.30B American dollars, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Trade balance. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in Canada. This indicator records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods, and its increase is a positive factor for the national currency. It may change from 1.39B Canadian dollars to 1.00B Canadian dollars, putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Read more

Manufacturing PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April purchasing managers index in the manufacturing sector of the EU countries is due, based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries, assessing their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The index may change from 46.1 points to 45.6 points. Read more

Manufacturing PMI. Germany, 09:55 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 22:55 pm

At 09:55 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the German manufacturing sector is due, based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. Also, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The index may rise from 41.9 points to 42.2 points. Read more

procure.ch PMI. Switzerland, 09:30 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 22:30 pm

At 09:30 (GMT+2), April data on the manufacturing business activity index from procure.ch is due in Switzerland. The indicator reflects the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector and is one of the important indicators characterizing the degree of confidence of large businesses in the economic development of the country. It may change from 45.2 points to 45.5 points, supporting the franc. Read more

USD/JPY calm ahead of Fed decision

May 1, 2024 | 08:14 am

Japanese yen is trading quietly on Wednesday. USD/JPY is trading at 157.68, down 0.07% at the time of writing. Fed expected to hold rates The Federal Reserve meets later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a sixth straight time. The target range for the benchmark rate of 5.25% to 5.5% hasn’t […]

AUD/USD stabilizes after taking a tumble, Fed next

May 1, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in March, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February and […]

NZ dollar shrugs after soft jobs report

May 1, 2024 | 03:02 am

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Thursday, after a sharp decline of 1.5% a day earlier. NZD/USD is trading higher 0.08% on the day at 0.5890, at the time of writing. New Zealand’s employment declines New Zealand’s labor market is showing signs of cracks. Employment in the fourth quarter declined by 0.2% q/q, down […]

Canadian dollar slides as Cdn. GDP misses expectations

Apr 30, 2024 | 09:54 am

The Canadian dollar is down sharply on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3743, down 0.71%. Canada’s GDP rises 0.2% Canada’s economy continues to struggle in the first quarter. GDP grew by a modest 0.2% m/m February, down from a revised 0.5% in January and shy of the market estimate of […]

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