Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

Bitcoin price forecast - I have bought some BTCUSD at 62k with target 70k

May 8, 2024 | 03:51 am

My bitcoin technical analysis videoBitcoin technical analysis and BTCUSD price forecast: A bullish perspective for upcoming sessionsWelcome, crypto investors and traders. Today, I am delving into a detailed technical analysis of Bitcoin with the above video. With recent price movements and key technical levels, there's an exciting opportunity for those looking to go long on Bitcoin. Let's break down the analysis and discuss potential trading strategies.📈 Key Resistance and Support LevelsCritical Resistance:The pivotal level to watch is $62,195. Price reactions at this naked PoC key price level indicate significant market attention.🟡 Trading Strategy: Going Long with Strategic StopsImmediate Strategy: After a slight decline over the past few days, Bitcoin presents a promising long entry point. A short stop-loss strategy is advisable to minimize risks.Stop-Loss Tip: Set your stop just above 1.5% of risk near the recent low at $61,356.🔍 Technical Indicators and PatternsYellow Channel: The mid-channel line serves as a minor resistance, which if broken, could signify a stronger bullish momentum.Purple Trendline: With three prior touch points, this trendline - see the purple line in the video above - is another importnat marker for potential price breakout to the higher side.🚀 Potential Upside and Profit TargetsShort-Term Target: Look to take initial profits around $63,000 and near the mid-channel line at approximately $64,660.Long-Term View: If the momentum continues, riding the wave up to $70,000 could yield a substantial reward, with a potential 9:1 reward-to-risk ratio.🌟 Medium-Term OutlookBullish Sentiment: The medium-term outlook remains bullish with expectations of breaking higher resistance levels in one to two consecutive attempts.Market Dynamics: Resistance levels often require several tests before a breakthrough; the upcoming attempt could be a decisive fourth or fifth try.💡 Trading TipsMarket Timing: If you're catching this analysis a bit late, smaller timeframes may offer viable entry points. AGAIN - ENTRY AROUND The pivotal level is $62,195. Risk Management: Always trade within your risk tolerance and consider partial profits to secure gains.🎯 ConclusionWhile the bullish signals are not yet strong, this can be an early entry for the high risk vs reward trader. Remember that trading involves risk, and it's crucial to approach each trade with careful consideration. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com for more updates, and as always, trade wisely and well.Thank you for checking out ForexLive.com, and good luck in your trading endeavors! This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY – Yen weakness prompts warning from Tokyo

May 8, 2024 | 03:41 am

The Japanese yen is down for a third straight day and has declined 1.5% this week. USD/JPY has risen 0.43% on the day and is trading at 155.35 at the time of writing. Early Thursday, the BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions from the April meeting. Japanese officials remain mum about suspected interventions on […]

GBP/USD Analysis: Bearish Shift Until Key Event - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 03:32 am

GBP/USD attempted to hold above the 1.2500 level to avoid further losses, but with bearish sentiment ahead of the Bank of England's announcement tomorrow, GBP/USD has slipped to the 1.2484 support level as of writing.

Video market update for May 08, 2024

May 8, 2024 | 03:27 am

Potential for the further drop on BTCUSDThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Analysis: Heading Back Towards Japanese Intervention Levels - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 03:24 am

According to today's Wednesday trading, the value of the Japanese yen has fallen to over 155 yen against the US dollar, giving up about half of the gains it made last week.

EUR/USD Analysis: Trading Remains Range-Bound - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 02:48 am

Amid the performance of the currency pair in Forex currency trading companies, EUR/USD may take cues from tomorrow's US initial jobless claims report and the University of Michigan's preliminary US consumer sentiment index on Friday.

Gold Analysis: Neutral Performance Awaiting Fresh Cues - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 02:34 am

Gold prices are consolidating around $2320 an ounce today.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The 160.00 handle is now in sight.

May 8, 2024 | 02:27 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations. The only thing that can change the trend at the moment is much weaker US data.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY has been rallying steadily since the US NFP report as the dip-buyers took advantage of the spike lower to pile in at a strong support zone around the 152.00 handle. There’s basically nothing that can stop the pair from retesting the key 160.00 level as the Japanese officials are unlikely to intervene again before that level, especially given the obvious failure from the prior interventions. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the break above the key 155.00 handle opened the door for a rally into the 156.28 swing level. A break above that level should clear the way for the rally into the 160.00 handle as the buyers will likely pile in more aggressively. The sellers, on the other hand, don’t have much to work with before the 160.00 handle, so it would be better to wait for a bearish catalyst before taking new short positions. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the Japanese wage data and the US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. Unless we get big surprises, it’s unlikely that the data will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish.See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Forex forecast 05/08/2024: EUR/USD, Oil, Gold and SP500 from Sebastian Seliga

May 8, 2024 | 02:16 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:13 Totay's key events: Crude Oil Inventories, German Industrial Production, European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting, Mortgage Rate (GBP), Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 01:24 EUR/USD 03:10 OIL 06:48 GOLD 08:20 SP500Useful links:My other articles are available in this sectionInstaForex course for beginnersPopular AnalyticsOpen trading accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US Dollar Testing Resistance: Forecasts for USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 01:38 am

The US Dollar has continued to advance over recent hours, supported by Hawkish remarks from the Fed’s Kashkari.

USD/SGD Analysis: Incremental Trend Upwards as Trading Caution Builds - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 01:24 am

The USD/SGD has inched higher in early trading this morning continuing a path which began on Monday after a strong amount of selling had been demonstrated last week.

NZD/USD Analysis: Speculators Might be Looking at Higher Price Levels - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 01:11 am

After touching a high of nearly 0.60490 momentarily on Friday within the NZD/USD the currency pair has seen incremental selling.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Continues to See Support Against the Loonie - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:54 am

The US dollar rallied slightly during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to try to find some type of basing pattern that we can use to go higher.

USD/NOK Forecast: US Dollar Bounces from 50 Day EMA Against Norwegian Krone - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:49 am

Short-term pullbacks will continue to get bought into, despite the fact that we have seen a lot of negativity over the last couple of days.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Attempts to Strengthen Against the Greenback - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:47 am

The euro initially fell a little bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but then turned around to rally towards the 200 day EMA.

USD/CHF Forecast: US Dollar Trying to Build Base Against Franc - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:40 am

The US dollar initially rallied against the Swiss franc during the trading session on Tuesday but has since given back some of the strength.

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 8

May 8, 2024 | 00:37 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 154.35 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply fell from the zero mark, which limited the USD/JPY pair's downward potential. The second test coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator recovered from the oversold territory, which made it possible for traders to buy the dollar in continuation of the uptrend. As a result, the pair was up by more than 30 pips. Today, in the absence of data from Japan, the dollar strengthened and the yen fell due to technical factors. Unfortunately, the US economic calendar is relatively empty as well, so the trading instrument is not under pressure. Most likely, traders will take advantage of any pullbacks, if they occur, and build up long positions in continuation of the trend, which is what I'll be focusing on as well. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point at 155.45 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 156.25 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 156.25, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today in continuation of the upward trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.07 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.45 and 156.25.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 155.07 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 154.29, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return in case the price fails to settle near today's high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 155.45 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.07 and 154.29.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Forex Signal: British Pound Continues to Dance Around Moving Averages - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:35 am

The British pound has initially pulled back just a bit during the trading session on Tuesday.

BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Continues to Struggle - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:29 am

The Bitcoin market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of weakness.

Ethereum Forecast: Stabilizes a Bit at Support - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:28 am

Ethereum markets have gone back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to look at the $3000 level with great interest.

AUD/USD Forecast: Australian Dollar Struggles at Resistance - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:23 am

The Australian dollar has been back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday

Silver Forecast: Silver Continues to Look Bullish but Stretched - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:22 am

Silver has initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday, but then turned around to show signs of life again.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - A look at the chart ahead of the BOE decision

May 8, 2024 | 00:18 am

Fundamental OverviewThe USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. The greenback has been erasing some of the losses this week, but overall we have mostly a rangebound price action in FX as we wait for the US CPI report next week. The GBP, on the other hand, has been gaining ground mostly because of the weaker USD and the risk-on sentiment. Tomorrow, we have the BOE rate decision where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. The latest inflation report showed the headline and core figures moderating further while the labour market data showed an increase in the unemployment rate and job losses with high wage growth figures. At the last meeting, the vote split changed with the most hawkish members joining the hold camp and Dhingra remaining the usual dissenter voting for a cut. The market expects the first rate cut in September and it’s unlikely that we will see the BOE making major changes at the upcoming decision. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD spiked above the trendline following the US NFP release but eventually got rejected from the 1.26 handle and faded all the gains leaving behind a possible fakeout. This is generally a reversal pattern, although it would be better to pair it with a catalyst. Right now, we are in kind of a limbo where the market has priced out the aggressive rate cuts and remains pretty stable around the current pricing. The pair seems now mostly driven by risk sentiment. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers would have a better risk to reward setup around the previous support now turned resistance around the 1.2530 level. In fact, if the price were to break above the resistance and the trendline, the bearish setup would be technically invalidated and the buyers will likely pile in with more conviction to position for a rally into new highs. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we have the BOE policy decision and the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we get the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 00:13 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.94; (P) 193.54; (R1) 194.08; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 193.86) will bring stronger rebound back toward 197.40 resistance. On the downside, below 191.34 will resume the correction from 200.53. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Range Bound as Focus Remains on Fedspeak - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:11 am

The EUR/USD consolidation continued on Wednesday morning in a low-volume environment.

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Pound the Japanese Yen - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:11 am

The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday but has run into a little bit of noise just below the ¥155 level.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 00:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.82; (P) 166.19; (R1) 166.73; More… EUR/JPY’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 166.14) suggests that pull back from 171.58 has completed at 164.01 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 168.64 resistance. On the downside, […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 00:08 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8575; (P) 0.8587; (R1) 0.8611; More… EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8582 resistance suggests that fall from 0.8643 has completed at 0.8529. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from 0.8497 low. On the downside, below 0.8566 minor support will turn intraday bias […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Analysts are Optimistic About Bitcoin Price - 08 May 2024

May 8, 2024 | 00:05 am

Bitcoin price consolidation has continued its consolidation phase this week as concerns about regulations continued.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 00:02 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6235; (P) 1.6283; (R1) 1.6348; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment, and some more consolidations could be seen above 1.6216. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 00:00 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9747; (P) 0.9763; (R1) 0.9786; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Aussie is Extremely Bullish Above 0.6650 - 08 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 23:54 pm

The AUD/USD exchange rate pulled back even after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a hawkish pause on Tuesday.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Consolidation Continues - 08 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 23:44 pm

May be long opportunity at support levels.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3676; (P) 1.3709; (R1) 1.3757; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

May 7, 2024 | 23:32 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6575; (P) 0.6610; (R1) 0.6632; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and consolidations would continue below 0.6645. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6560) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 23:29 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 155.01; More… USD/JPY’s break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.81) argues that pull back from 160.20 has completed at 151.86 already. Rebound from there is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 157.98 resistance. On the downside, […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9061; (P) 0.9078; (R1) 0.9100; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9005 is extending. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9099) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9000) will bring deeper […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0739; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0779; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.0810. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0731) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 23:09 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2481; (P) 1.2528; (R1) 1.2554; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment and some more consolidations could be seen below 1.2633. Further rally is in favor with 1.2471 support intact. On the upside, above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 8. Simple tips for beginners

May 7, 2024 | 21:38 pm

Analyzing Tuesday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement after rebounding from the level of 1.2611 last Friday. The price has previously breached the ascending trend line, indicating the end of the upward trend, which was corrective in nature. Looking at higher time frames, its clear that the pair will follow a downward move in the medium-term. Therefore, we expect the pound to resume the decline.Neither the UK nor the US published any reports on Tuesday. In the US, several Federal Reserve officials spoke, and it became apparent that there will be no talk of rate cuts in the near future. This indicates that the US dollar still has a stronger fundamental background compared to the British pound. However, the Bank of England meeting is scheduled this week, and the central bank may soften its stance on monetary policy. With inflation decreasing in the UK, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's rhetoric may take on a more dovish tone. If this happens, the British pound will have new reasons to fall.GBP/USD on 5M chart Two trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe, with another one occurring overnight. Initially, the price rebounded from the range of 1.2541-1.2547, but this turned out to be a false signal and resulted in a small loss. Then the price breached the range of 1.2541-1.2547, and the pair fell to the level of 1.2502. Novice traders could have earned about 30 pips on this trade. Overnight, the pair breached the level of 1.2502, so short positions could be kept open or new ones could be opened in the morning while aiming for 1.2457.Trading tips on Wednesday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, and the corrective phase may finally end. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. If the BoE does not disappoint the market with hawkish rhetoric and its decisions this week, we expect the pound to fall further.On Wednesday, investors can initiate trade from the level of 1.2502, which the price has already surpassed. Therefore, short positions are more relevant for today.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. Today, there are no events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US. Therefore, we don't expect strong movements, but the pound may continue to fall, as it is now easier to expect the BoE to soften its stance.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 8. Simple tips for beginners

May 7, 2024 | 21:33 pm

Analyzing Tuesday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair failed to overcome the level of 1.0785, bouncing off it for the third time. Consequently, the euro started to fall as expected, heading towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel, which is still relevant. Take note that the recent upward movement, which has been ongoing for three weeks now, is essentially a correction, as clearly seen on higher time frames. Therefore, we expect this corrective phase to end and the euro to start a new decline.There were no significant macroeconomic or fundamental events on Tuesday. The Eurozone retail sales report was published, showing a value of +0.8%, which is slightly higher than forecasts. However, this report did not trigger a market reaction. Or if there was a reaction, it was so weak that it was hardly noticeable. Low volatility persisted throughout the day, and the pair only started to fall towards the end of the day, which could mark the beginning of a new downtrend.EUR/USD on 5M chart Only one trading signal was formed on the 5-minute timeframe. During the US trading session, the price bounced off the level of 1.0785, so novice traders could open short positions. The euro continues to fall, and it may continue to do so in the coming days. Therefore, investors can keep this trade open, at least until the price reaches the level of 1.0733. If it has already been closed, it still likely resulted in profit.Trading tips on Wednesday:On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair is going through a corrective phase. We believe that the decline should resume in the medium term, as the euro remains relatively high, and in general, the global trend is pointed downwards. The fundamental background still works in favor of the US dollar, and the latest FOMC meeting supports this - now Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doesn't even know when monetary policy easing will begin.On Wednesday, it is reasonable to maintain short positions, as the price rebounded from the 1.0785-1.0797 area on Tuesday, and the uptrend has remained intact for way too long. Traders may consider selling the pair if the price consolidates below the channel and the 1.0725-1.0733 area.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725-1.0733, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Today, the German industrial production report will be published, which has even less chance of a market reaction than yesterday's retail sales report. Therefore, we expect low volatility and weak movements.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Litecoin Cryptocurrency, Wednesday May 08, 2024.

May 7, 2024 | 21:05 pm

With the appearance of hidden deviations between the price movement of the Litecoin cryptocurrency and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator on the 4-hour chart, this gives an indication that in the near future Litecoin has the potential to weaken, which has also been confirmed by the Death Cross of MA 50 and MA 200, so based on this - this and as long as there is no strengthening correction that breaks above level 83.37, Litecoin has the potential to continue its weakening to level 79.89 as the main target and if momentum and volatility support then level 78.58 will be the next target to be aimed.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday May 08, 2024.

May 7, 2024 | 21:04 pm

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the AUD/JPY cross currency pair, we can see that the 50 MA is above the 200 MA, which means it is still intersecting with the Golden Cross, which indicates that Buyers are still dominant, especially as this is also confirmed by the holding of the AUD/JPY downward correction at the area level. The Bullish Fair Value Gap is holding back the pace of the weakening correction thereby giving strengthening momentum to this currency pair so that as long as there is no further weakening correction which breaks below the 100.46 level then AUD/JPY still has the potential to continue its strengthening up to the 102.83 level in the near future and if the momentum and volatility are supportive, so it is not impossible that level 103.84 will be the next target to be aimed at.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Industrial Production. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the data on German Industrial Production for March will be published. Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced. The indicator takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the power industry. The value is expected to correct from 2.1% to -1.0% month-on-month, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 8-10, 2024: buy above $2,312 (21 SMA - symmetrical triangle)

May 7, 2024 | 20:38 pm

Early in the European session, gold is trading around 2,310.68 forming a bearish bullish pennant pattern on the H4 chart.Gold has been trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern formed since April 12. We believe that if there is a sharp break above 2,312 and consolidation above this area on the daily chart, gold could continue its rise and could reach 6/ 8 Murray at 2,375 and finally, 7/8 Murray around 2,437.On April 18, gold left a GAP at about 2,392. If an upward movement occurs in the next few days and if gold consolidates above 2,375, the instrument could cover this GAP and even reach the psychological level of 2,400.On the contrary, if gold falls and consolidates below the 21 SMA located at 2,312 and below 5/8 Murray, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA located at 2,295. The price could reach the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern around of 2,270.Since the beginning of May, the eagle indicator has been showing a positive signal and we believe that an upward movement in gold could occur in the coming days. For this scenario to be confirmed, we must wait for the double break of the bullish flag and symmetrical triangle pattern.If this scenario comes true, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy. On the contrary, we could continue selling below 2,310.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 8, 2024

May 7, 2024 | 20:04 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the British pound slumped, outpacing other currencies, ahead of the upcoming Bank of England meeting (on May 9th). The price can now reach the target support at 1.2465.If the Marlin oscillator does not interfere, that is, it doesn't move upwards for a correction from the zero line, then the price can soon reach the aforementioned level. Next, we expect a sequential test of support levels at 1.2424, 1.2355, 1.2307, as we do not expect a strong message from the BoEOn the 4-hour chart, the price consolidated below the level of 1.2525, below the red-colored balance indicator line, and below the blue-colored MACD line. Also, the Marlin oscillator has settled in the bearish territory. The pair is following a downtrend on both timeframes.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 8, 2024

May 7, 2024 | 20:04 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, the currency market did not see any compelling reasons to increase risk appetite and, although stock markets were rising, it retreated from Monday's highs. The euro declined by 15 pips. The situation from Monday repeated itself – the price fell from the balance indicator line. The correction that started on April 16 has likely ended, and now the euro is preparing to resume the decline in the medium-term.Once the price breaches the nearest support at 1.0724, it may reach the target range of 1.0636/56. Next, we're waiting for the price to breach the range and the pair to fall towards the target level of 1.0567. At the moment, the Marlin oscillator is holding back the downward movement – its reversal looks uncertain.On the four-hour chart, the MACD indicator line approached the support at 1.0724. This is probably the reason for the potential slowdown in the decline, since the level received support. In addition, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator reached the boundary of the downtrend territory. A good reason is needed to breach the support. Today, the speeches of three FOMC members (Jefferson, Collins, Cook) and the auction of $42 billion worth of 10-year US government bonds could provide impetus.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on May 8, 2024

May 7, 2024 | 20:04 pm

AUD/USDOn May 3, 6, and 7, the Australian dollar broke above the resistance level of 0.6627 with the upper shadows of daily candles and, since this is a strong level, the aussie plummeted by 26 pips yesterday, and it fell by another 22 pips in today's Pacific session, reaching the balance indicator line.The Marlin oscillator has moved downwards and is steadily approaching the border of the downtrend territory. Visually, this border will be tested when the price reaches the MACD indicator line (0.6545). A small correction is possible, after that we expect the price to move towards the target level of 0.6480.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has moved into bearish territory, and the price is approaching the area of the MACD lines on both charts. If the price consolidates below the MACD line on the H4 chart, it will correspond to overcoming this line on the daily chart. We are monitoring the progress of the downtrend.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for EUR/USD on May 8. Another boring day

May 7, 2024 | 17:56 pm

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M EUR/USD did not show any interesting movements on Tuesday. The pair has been trading in a sideways channel for the third consecutive day, bounded by levels 1.0757 and 1.0797. Therefore, the price cannot leave the 40-pip range. There were no reasons to rise or fall. The euro area retail sales report was released in the morning, which was slightly above forecasts, but it did not provoke any market reaction as it wasn't considered important. Among other events, we can highlight speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. The former spoke about three rate cuts this year and readiness to start easing in June. The latter mentioned the possible need to further tighten monetary policy since inflation has ceased to slow down.As before, we believe that such rhetoric, as well as the overall fundamental background, only works in favor of the dollar. The euro cannot constantly and continuously decline, so the current bullish correction is also logical. However, the correction has been persistent for three weeks now, so it's time for it to end. The end of the correction can be determined once the price overcomes the lines of the Ichimoku indicator and exits the ascending channel.Yesterday, three trading signals were formed around the level of 1.0757. The price bounced from this level thrice, and it only managed to rise by at least 20 pips on the third attempt. Traders could only open one long position, as they duplicated each other. The price did not reach the target level of 1.0797, so traders could only gain a small profit from this trade. In conditions of volatility slightly over 30 pips, even such profit is a good result.COT report: The latest COT report is dated April 30. The net position of non-commercial traders has been bullish for quite some time, but now the situation has finally changed. The net position of non-commercial traders (red line) has been decreasing in recent months, while that of commercial traders (blue line) has been increasing. This shows that market sentiment is turning bearish, as speculators increasingly sell the euro. Currently, their positions coincide in terms of volume. We don't see any fundamental factors that can support the euro's strength, while technical analysis also suggests a downtrend. Three descending trend lines on the weekly chart indicate that there's a good chance of sustaining the decline.The red and blue lines have crossed, and now bears may have a significant advantage. So we strongly believe that the euro will fall further. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group decreased by 100, while the number of short positions decreased by 3,200. Accordingly, the net position increased by 3,100. Overall, both the euro and the net position continue to decline. The number of buy contracts is now lower than the number of sell contracts among non-commercial traders by 7,000.Analysis of EUR/USD 1H On the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has been going through a weak bullish correction against a global downward trend for three weeks now. Since expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2024 have significantly decreased, the US should rise in the medium term. We still expect the current correction to end, and after that traders can consider selling the pair again. The targets in the 1.00-1.02 range remain unchanged for now.On May 8, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0530, 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0836, 1.0886, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0679) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0740). The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 15 pips. This will protect you against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.On Wednesday, there are no crucial reports. We can only highlight the report on industrial production in Germany, which is a minor report. Overall, we expect another boring day. Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for GBP/USD on May 8. The pound has stopped rising, but the Bank of England meeting could change that

May 7, 2024 | 17:56 pm

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M GBP/USD experienced a minor downward retracement, but this did not affect the overall technical picture. The price settled below the critical Kijun-sen line, but the upward trend persists as the pair remains close to its local high. We're still waiting for the end of the upward movement, as we believe that it has been extended since it is part of a corrective phase. The pound has once again thoroughly exhausted all factors for its potential growth and is now reluctantly attempting to resume the downward trend. Since the pair has left the ascending channel, we anticipate a decline. Given that the fundamental background remains in favor of the dollar, we expect a decline. The nearest target is the Senkou Span B line.On Tuesday, there were no important reports or events. We've previously mentioned that several Federal Reserve officials have delivered speeches that turned out to be much more hawkish than the market expected or could have expected. Now, Michelle Bowman is discussing the possibility of a Fed rate hike, and her colleagues believe that the restrictive policy will remain in place for a long time. Inflation in the US has hardly decreased for almost a year now, so it doesn't make sense to talk about easing monetary policy at the moment. At the same time, the Bank of England may suggest a rate cut.On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed around the critical Kijun-sen line. Given the "whopping" 44-pip volatility, it's not surprising that all three turned out to be false signals. We will remind you that when there are no movements, the pair will generate false signals or traders simply won't gain any profit.COT report: COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders often changes in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly intersect and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 4,800 buy contracts and 2,000 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 2,800 contracts in a week. Sellers continue to hold their ground. The fundamental background still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases of the pound sterling, and the currency finally has a real chance to resume the global downward trend. The trend line on the 24-hour TF clearly shows this. Almost all of the factors point to the pound's decline.The non-commercial group currently has a total of 43,700 buy contracts and 72,700 sell contracts. Now the bears are in control and the pound has a huge potential to fall. We can only hope that inflation in the UK does not accelerate, or that the Bank of England will not intervene.Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, GBP/USD continues to go through a bullish correction, which could turn into anything. Since the price could not overcome the area of 1.2605-1.2620, there are hopes of bringing back the downward trend in the medium-term. However, the results of the Bank of England meeting will be announced tomorrow, which could be absolutely anything. And the market could show a strong reaction. We have long been accustomed to the market interpreting any controversial data in favor of the pound.As of May 8, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2433) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2550) lines can also serve as sources of signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.On Wednesday, there are no important events scheduled in the UK and the US. Traders will have nothing to react to, and the pair's volatility may be very weak once again. It's unlikely that the market will find grounds to end the correction, but the results of the BoE meeting will be announced on Thursday, so the market may start anticipating them in advance. Overcoming the level of 1.2516 could pave the way to the Senkou Span B line.Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

German data didn't scare the euro

May 7, 2024 | 15:39 pm

EUR/USD bulls were somewhat disappointed with the unexpected decline in German industrial orders by 0.4% m/m in March, but they weren't completely discouraged. The indicator failed to meet Bloomberg forecasts, as experts were expecting growth from it, and it became evidence of the persisting weakness in the German economy. However, after the EUR/USD pair edged down, the main currency pair recovered all of its losses.Dynamics of industrial orders in GermanyThe European Central Bank will begin lowering borrowing costs at its June meeting if the price path holds, Governing Council member Pablo Hernandez de Cos said. The ECB is data-dependent. It does not have specific timelines for easing monetary policy; its decisions will be made meeting by meeting. This can be considered a neutral rhetoric. It supports EUR/USD and differs from the doves' opinion that the rate cut should happen after June and also in July.The euro is supported by the results of a survey of German companies operating abroad. They are the most optimistic in the last two years due to the slowdown in inflation and the imminent rate cut. One-third of the 4,300 respondents forecast an increase in revenue in their foreign subsidiaries, which is more than the 22% in the autumn survey. Only 19% of managers believe that the German economy will continue to slow down. Previously, the figure was 28%.Among the main risks mentioned are the weakness of domestic demand, higher labor costs, and economic policy uncertainty.Key risks for German companiesTherefore, against the backdrop of a mixed picture of the German economy and neutral comments from ECB officials, EUR/USD managed to hold onto its previous gains and is on track for further improvement. Strong demand for US Treasury bonds is necessary, as it can lower the yields and hit the USD index, as well as the rise of the US stock market. This will be evidence of an improved global risk appetite. But it's also bad news for a safe-haven currency like the US dollar.However, sellers are not necessarily ready to abandon their bearish views. For instance, Morgan Stanley believes that the main currency pair will fall further due to the different dynamics of American and European inflation. After the ECB cuts its deposit rate in June, the market's attention will shift to monetary policy easing in July, putting pressure on the euro.In my opinion, the narrowing divergence in economic growth between the US and the eurozone, as well as increasing market expectations for the scale of ECB monetary easing, will allow the main currency pair to continue its upward trend.Technically, on the daily chart, the fact that bears can't win back the inside bar is a sign of their weakness. A break above the upper boundary of the bar near the $1.079 mark will be a reason to buy the euro.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed is discussing the possibility of another rate hike

May 7, 2024 | 15:39 pm

Since the beginning of the year, I've been saying the same thing: I believe that the Federal Reserve is not in a rush to lower rates. In fact, we may not even see a Fed rate cut in 2024. This is quite possible, considering the current inflation rate. In recent months, inflation has been accelerating, and it has not stopped. There is no guarantee that it will stop accelerating, and the Consumer Price Index will not reach, for example, 4%. How many economists will be talking about the prospects of a rate cut in 2024 with this amount of inflation as of at least June?I also want to point out that some members of the FOMC have started feeling uneasy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to "save face" until the last moment, and a couple of weeks ago, he announced that the disinflation process had stopped, and expressed uncertainty regarding the timing for a potential rate cut. At the same time, other Fed officials are already hinting at the need for policy tightening. Michelle Bowman said inflation will likely remain elevated for some time. She mentioned expecting slow declines in the CPI, but that it's also possible interest rates may have to move higher. Bowman deserves applause for these comments. The Fed official was one of the first to suggest that with rising inflation, it's necessary to discuss tightening rather than easing policy. Based on her words, the Fed may raise rates once or twice in 2024 instead of the five or six cuts that market participants were expecting at the beginning of the year. This means that the market would "miss the mark" by approximately 8 easing rounds in this case. In my opinion, this is a huge difference between expectations and reality that simply cannot go unnoticed. This year, the euro has only declined against the dollar by 350 basis points, and in my opinion, that's very little considering the news that comes in almost every day.Bowman also noted that geopolitical risks are an important factor negatively impacting inflation. She added that increased immigration, labor shortages, and consumer demand could lead to even more sustained inflation in the United States.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. A successful attempt to break 1.0787, which is equal to 76.4% Fibonacci, will indicate that the market is ready for new short positions. Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is ready to build a descending wave. An unsuccessful attempt at 1.2625, which equates to 38.2% Fibonacci, would indicate that an internal, corrective wave of 3 or c, is complete.Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD runs higher and breaks through a series of technical targets along the way.

May 7, 2024 | 12:51 pm

The USDCAD has made a move to the upside today with the help of technical breaks through some key moving averages. More specifically, the.100 and 200 hour moving averages were broken near the same level at 1.3688100 bar moving average on the four hour chart was broken at 1.37169The move higher also extended above a swing area between 1.3714 and 1.3728. That area will now be close support for traders looking for more upside.The video above outlines the roadmap for the USDCAD and the levels now in play as the bias turns more to the upside on today's move higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

S&P index tops out at 5200 and reverses lower

May 7, 2024 | 11:47 am

After trading up to an intraday high of 5200.23 – a nice round number for the index - the S&P index has reversed to the downside and now trade near unchanged at 5180.60. At session highs, the index was up 19.50 points. The low price just reached -1.77 points.It's never good when a process thaws against a nice round number. At the very least, it increases the levels risk defining level. It gives sellers (in this case) the opportunity to lean against level going forward. Staying below 5200 is more bearish. it would take a move above to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the price gapped higher from Friday to Monday with a low yesterday of 5148.09. That would be a downside target going forward. The broken 61.8% retracement of the move down from the April high comes in at 5145.94 and would be another target on increased selling momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD trades to a new low for the day/week and approaches a key target support level

May 7, 2024 | 11:33 am

The EURUSD is falling to a new session low for the day and a new low for the 2-days of the new trading week. The move lower has the pair moving downward toward its 200 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart, The broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March 2023 high, and also the Rising 100-day moving average. All those levels come in at the same 1.07458 level, making the level a key barometer for both buyers and sellers. If the price can stay above that level, the buyers remain more in control. If the price moves below the level, sellers start to take back more control from the buyers (look for more selling on a break).Note earlier in the day, the high price fell short of the 50% midpoint of the same move lower. That level was also the high price from Monday's trade. The inability to extend above that level gave the sellers the go-ahead to push to the downside. Yields have also come off of their high levels giving a small boost to the US dollar. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due. Earlier, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.906M barrels of crude oil, and this trend continuation may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

Analysis of GBP/USD pair on May 7th. The market fluctuates, and the British currency holds steady

May 7, 2024 | 08:47 am

The wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex. A successful attempt to break the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicated the market's readiness to build a downtrend wave 3 or c. If this wave continues its formation, the wave pattern will become much more straightforward, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I have noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable. There needs to be more simplicity and understanding in recent months. For a long time, the pair has been in a sideways trend, and only now is there a possibility of constructing an impulsive downtrend wave.In the current situation, my readers can expect the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the British currency should decline by at least 500-600 basis points from current levels. With such a decline, wave 3 or c will be relatively small, but I expect a more significant drop in quotes. After breaking the 1.2469 mark (50.0% according to Fibonacci), sellers have removed the psychological barrier, but recent US reports have prompted sellers to pause until better times.Sellers are taking their time to go to the market. The GBP/USD pair rate decreased by 5 basis points on Tuesday, while it increased by 15 yesterday. There is no news background in the UK and the USA these days. Therefore, the very weak desire of the market to make deals is understandable. The British currency is openly taking advantage of the current situation and is pleased that there are no new reasons for its sale. I remind you that the demand for the pound should continue to decline based on the current wave analysis and the news background. Lately, US reports have not pleased traders, but it is not possible to consider only negative data from the US while completely ignoring negative data from the UK.There is currently a decoupling of expectations regarding the interest rates of the Bank of England and the Fed. The market believed the American regulator would start lowering the rate in March but was wrong. The market believed that the Bank of England would start lowering the rate at the end of the year, which was also wrong. It is clear that the British regulator may start easing as early as the summer, and the Fed - even throughout 2024, may not achieve the required inflation rate for rate cuts.Based on the above, I expect a decline in the British currency, at least to the 23 figure. This mark should not be the final point of the British currency's decline, as the presumed wave 3 or c is far from taking on a completed form. Its internal wave structure is very complex, but the overall picture remains the same.General conclusionsThe wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or c continues its formation. A successful attempt to break the 1.2472 mark, which corresponds to 50.0% according to Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to build a downtrend wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.2625 mark, equivalent to 38.2% according to Fibonacci, will indicate the completion of the internal corrective wave within 3 or c.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The descending corrective trend leg continues its formation, and its second wave has taken on an extended form - to 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break this mark could have led to the beginning of the construction of 3 or c, but at the moment, a corrective wave is being built.The main principles of my analysis are:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders for protection.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of EUR/USD pair on May 7th. The market sleeps and awaits important messages

May 7, 2024 | 08:39 am

The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. We are currently observing the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c of the downtrend section. If this is the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this segment completed its construction around the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend segment should end below.The 1.0450 mark is the target only for the third wave. If the current downtrend section becomes impulsive, we can expect five waves, and the euro currency may decline below the 1.0000 mark. Undoubtedly, it isn't easy to expect such a development of events now, but there have been enough surprises in the currency market in recent years. Anything is possible.Is there a probability of changing the wave analysis? It is always there. However, if since October 3rd of last year, we have observed a new uptrend section, then the last downtrend wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward segment is possible only with a significant complication of the wave analysis. Such a scenario seems unlikely, so I will base my analysis on the basic analysis.Euro stopped at an important crossroads. The EUR/USD pair rate hardly changed on Tuesday, and the range of movements was very low. The pair is at a standstill for the second day in a row, and the news background is practically absent. Yesterday, the market received information on business activity in the service sectors of Germany and the European Union, and today - on retail trade volumes in the EU. All this information caused almost no reaction from market participants.According to Fibonacci, the pair remains below the 1.0788 mark, corresponding to 76.4%,. This mark is of great importance, and it is already clear that buyers will have a hard time breaking through it. A new downtrend wave in the structure of 3 or from may start from this mark. In case of consolidation above this mark, the construction of the current uptrend wave will continue, take an unnatural form, and may lead to adjustments to the entire wave structure. I want to avoid the last scenario, but things do not always go according to plan in the currency market.I expect a further decline in demand for the euro currency, as I see no reason for the market to buy the pair if the ECB starts easing monetary policy as early as next month. At the same time, the Fed will not conduct the first round of easing in June. We'll have to wait at least a few more months, but with the current level of inflation, I won't be surprised if we don't see a reduction in interest rates by the end of the year.General conclusions Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the construction of a downtrend wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so I expect the resumption of constructing an impulsive downtrend wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider sales with targets around the calculated mark of 1.0462, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. According to Fibonacci, an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.0787 mark, equivalent to 76.4%, will indicate the market's readiness for new sales.On a larger wave scale, it can be seen that the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% according to Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure has begun to be implemented.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play; they often bring changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders for protection.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for May 7-9, 2024: sell below $64,000 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

May 7, 2024 | 08:38 am

Bitcoin is trading around 63,588, below the 200 EMA, and below the 21 SMA. Bitcoin reached the psychological level of $65,000, the area which coincided with 5/8 Murray.After trying to break the bearish trend channel forming since April 21, the crypto found a strong rejection. Since then, we are watching a technical correction.In the next few hours, Bitcoin could continue its rise. If the price reaches 63,975, it could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling operations with targets at 62,500 and 3/8 Murray located at 59,375.On the contrary, if there is a pullback towards the top of the downtrend channel around 65,200 and if Bitcoin fails to consolidate above this area, it will be seen as a signal to sell with short-term targets at 2/8 Murray located at 56,500.On the other hand, if Bitcoin trades below the 200 EMA (64,000) in the next few hours, it could be seen as a signal to sell as the eagle indicator is producing overbought signals. Therefore, a technical correction is likely to occur in the next few days.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Video market update for May 07, 2024

May 7, 2024 | 08:35 am

Potential for the rally on Dollar INdex... The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 7th (US session)

May 7, 2024 | 08:31 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yenThe test of the price at 154.13 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had dropped significantly below the zero mark, limiting the downward potential of the pair - especially against the bullish market. Unfortunately, there was no second test of this price, which prevented me from entering the market to buy the dollar. The technical picture changed for the second half of the day, but it is unlikely that we can expect strong and directional movement in either direction. Data on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume are not important to the market, especially for the dollar against the Japanese yen. Therefore, I will also look for suitable entry points for trading within the channel. And if I decide to act on a breakout, it is better within the framework of further bullish trend development. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 154.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 155.41 (thicker green line on the chart). At the point of 155.41, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting the pair to rise today in continuation of the bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.35 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 154.67 and 155.41.Sell signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 154.35 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 153.70, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.67 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.35 and 153.70.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought; Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold; Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD bounces ahead of the 100-day MA today. What next technically for the pair?

May 7, 2024 | 08:23 am

The AUDUSD moved higher to retest the swing area ceiling area before the RBA rate decision and found willing sellers. That ceiling area comes in between 0.6635 and 0.6648. The rotation lower after the rate decision, took the price down toward the 100 day MA at 0.65765. That moving average was resistance last week, before breaking higher on the weaker US jobs report. So with resistance at the ceiling area and support at the 100-day MA, the bookend levels are defined. Traders will ultimately look for a break outside of the key levels.The above video outlines the details of the levels and defines the roadmap for trading going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 7th (US session)

May 7, 2024 | 08:23 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the British poundThere was no testing of the levels I indicated due to the low market volatility in the first half of the day. Fairly decent data came out regarding activity in the UK construction sector, which allowed us to avoid and stop the sell-off observed in the pound since the second half of yesterday. However, this did not lead to entry points. Figures on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume are unlikely to strongly influence the direction of the pound and the dollar during American trading, so I will stick to trading more within the sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenario No. 2, as I do not expect strong movements.Buy signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2558 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.2609 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2609, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Today, the rise of the pound can be expected only after weak US statistics and breaking the daily maximum. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests at 1.2531, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2558 and 1.2609.Sell signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2531 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2491, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will manifest themselves in case of inactivity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decrease.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests at 1.2558, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2531 and 1.2491.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought; Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be sold; Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must carefully decide about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 7th (US session)

May 7, 2024 | 08:13 am

Analysis of trades and trading tips for the European currencyThere was no testing of the levels I indicated due to the low market volatility in the first half of the day. Decent data came out for France and Germany and retail sales in the eurozone. But all of this was not enough to stir the market after Friday's spike, formed against the backdrop of US labor market data. Objectively, looking at the US data today, I don't expect anything good from the second half of the day. Figures on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume are unlikely to strongly impact the pair's direction, so I will stick to trading more within the sideways channel. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on scenario No. 2, as I do not expect strong movements.Buy signalScenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0778 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0815. At 1.0815, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, the euro's rise can be expected only after weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0756 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0778 and 1.0815.Sell signalScenario No. 1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0756 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0724, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return without buyer activity around the daily maximum and strong US data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decrease.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests at 1.0778 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0756 and 1.0724.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must carefully decide about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 7th (analysis of morning deals). Pound attempts to be bought

May 7, 2024 | 07:53 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2529 and planned to make decisions on market entry based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The decline and the formation of a false breakout led to an excellent entry point for buying the pound. At the time of writing this article, the growth amounted to about 15 points, and that was all. However, as long as trading stays above 1.2529, the chances for further growth remain. The technical picture for the second half of the day still needs to be revised.For opening long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Considering the quite decent data on the growth of activity in the UK construction sector, pound buyers managed to show themselves around 1.2529, but they need help figuring out what to do next. It is unlikely to become clearer in the second half of the day after the release of data on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the volume of consumer credit in the US. These figures do not mean much, so the pair may continue trading within a narrow sideways channel and its lower boundary of 1.2529. Another false breakout formation there, similar to what I analyzed earlier, will provide an entry point for buying with the goal of returning to the resistance at 1.2566, where the moving averages, playing on the sellers' side, are located. Breaking and testing this range from top to bottom against the backdrop of poor statistics is a chance for GBP/USD to rise with an update to 1.2606. If we break above this range, we can talk about a surge to 1.2657, where I plan to make a profit. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2529 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will increase, and a further upward trend will be at risk. In such a case, I will look for purchases around 1.2503. The formation of a false breakout will be a suitable option for market entry. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2467, with a target of a correction of 30-35 points within the day.For opening short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Bears have a good chance to continue the pair's decline, but for this, strong US statistics and statements from Fed officials about further combating high inflation are needed. The formation of a false breakout around 1.2566 would be an ideal condition for entering short positions, leading to a decline in GBP/USD to around 1.2529. Bulls may not withstand a second hit to this level, so breaking and reverse testing from the bottom to the top of this range will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another entry point for selling with the goal of updating to 1.2503. Testing this level will put buyers in a very precarious position. The ultimate target will be a minimum of 1.2467, where I will take profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD rise and the absence of bears at 1.2566 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to update the maximum at 1.2606. I will only enter there on a false breakout. In the absence of activity there, I recommend opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2657, expecting a rebound of the pair down by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 30th, there was a sharp reduction in long and short positions. The labor market report still needs to be included in these figures, so objectively, we have incomplete data. But ahead of us is the Bank of England meeting, where the regulator's position may affect the market's balance of power. For this reason, a small outflow and reduction of positions of buyers and sellers does not come as a surprise. The fact that there are more short positions by one and a half times by itself indicates a medium-term trend, which I will continue to adhere to. In the latest COT report, it is stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 4,791 to 43,668, while short non-commercial positions fell by 2,034 to 72,658. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 550.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a further decline of the pound.Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2529, will act as support.Description of indicatorsMoving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 7-9, 2024: buy above $ 2,318 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

May 7, 2024 | 07:51 am

Gold is trading around 2,314, below the 200 EMA, below the 21 SMA, and within an uptrend channel forming since May 3 with signs of exhaustion.On the H1 chart, we can see that gold followed a bearish bias during the last negotiations. However, with a break and consolidation above 2,318, the metal could resume the bullish cycle and the price could reach 2,335 and finally the top of the bullish trend channel around 2,350.The eagle indicator shows that gold is reaching overbought levels. So, we reckon if gold fails to break above 2,330, it could make a technical correction.In case gold falls and consolidates below 2,312, the outlook could be negative and we could expect it to reach the support of 2,295, then 2,277 and finally, 4/8 of Murray located at 2,250.The market sentiment report shows that there are 54.62% of traders who are buying gold. According to these statistics, we expect gold to reach resistance levels in the coming days and then sell with targets at 2,277 and 2,250.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 7th (analysis of morning deals). The euro remains within the channel

May 7, 2024 | 07:46 am

In my morning forecast, I noted the level of 1.0776 and planned to make decisions on market entry based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. Growth occurred, but due to low volatility, we only reached it once testing this range. Consequently, suitable entry points into the market still needed to be achieved. The technical picture for the second half of the day remained unchanged.For opening long positions on EURUSD, the following is required:The absence of significant Eurozone statistics became the key point of low trading volume and weak pair volatility. Even though retail sales volume in the Eurozone in March of this year exceeded economists' forecasts, it didn't particularly help the euro. I detailed the reasons for this in the morning forecast. The fact that we only have data on the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and consumer credit volume ahead of us likely means that volatility will remain the same. However, pressure on the euro may increase, given that risk asset buyers did not manifest themselves in the first half of the day. I plan to act according to the morning scenario: only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0741 will give an entry point into long positions capable of pushing the euro towards the significant resistance zone at 1.0776, which we did not reach today. Breaking and updating this range from top to bottom will lead to the formation of a new bullish market and a signal to buy with a chance of a surge to 1.0812. The ultimate target will be at a maximum of 1.0850, where I will take profit. In the case of a decrease in EUR/USD and the absence of activity around 1.0741 against the backdrop of very strong US statistics, pressure on the euro within the medium-term bearish trend will return. In such a scenario, I will enter the market only after the formation of a false breakout around the next support at 1.0706. I plan to open long positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0677, with a target of an upward correction within the day by 30-35 points.For opening short positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Euro sellers also have all the chances for the pair to fall. But first, I would like to see their activity around the significant resistance at 1.0776. The formation of a false breakout would be an excellent scenario for entering short positions with the target of declining to around 1.0741. Breaking and holding below this range, along with a reverse test from bottom to top, will provide another selling point with the pair moving towards 1.0706. There, I expect more active involvement from large buyers. The ultimate target will be at a minimum of 1.0677, where I will take profit. In the case of upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0776, bears will bid farewell in hopes of returning the market under their control. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0812 - the weekly maximum. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0850 with a target of a downward correction by 30-35 points.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 30th, there was a reduction in long and short positions. The Federal Reserve meeting could be interpreted in two ways, so significant changes in the market did not occur. Some have a chance that the Fed will still start lowering rates this year, just as some continue to buy the dollar, betting on a longer period of high interest rates. The data released on the US labor market last week still need to be reflected in this COT report, so we need the complete picture. However, despite this, I expect a further decline in the pair within the observed medium-term trend. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions fell by 111 to 167,185, while short non-commercial positions collapsed by 3,323 to 173,962. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 618.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.Note: The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decrease, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0760, will act as support.Description of indicatorsMoving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF:Buyers had their shot with a move above the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart. Missed.

May 7, 2024 | 06:59 am

Yesterday, the USDCHF traded up-and-down closing near its highs for the day after finding support against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March low to the May high. in the Asian session today, the price continued its move to the upside and extended above its 200-bar moving average on a 4-hour chart at 0.90797. The price also moved above a swing area between 0.9071 and 0.90768. Those levels are now resistance as the breaks above those technical levels failed. The buyers had their shot. They missed. The pair is trading to a new session low. If the aforementioned resistance levels hold, on the downside the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March low to the May high comes in at 0.90341 and would be the next key target. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD Trades to a new high

May 7, 2024 | 06:44 am

The EURUSD is straight into a new session high and moves closer to the target area defined by 2% midpoint of the range since March high and the 200 day moving average. Levels come between 1.07906 and 1.07946. Key barometer for both buyers and sellers going forward. Looking for sellers to lean on the first test. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 06:13 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.12; (P) 153.57; (R1) 154.34; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 154.79) will bring stronger rebound towards 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 151.86 will resume the fall from 160.20. But strong support should be seen from […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9043; (P) 0.9056; (R1) 0.9076; More…. USD/CHF is staying in consolidation above 0.9005 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9101) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.8996) will […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 06:08 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2535; (P) 1.2565; (R1) 1.2591; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.2633 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Further rise remains in favor as long as 1.2471 support holds. Above 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 05:54 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0753; (P) 1.0772; (R1) 1.0789; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation below 1.0810 temporary top and intraday bias stays neutral. While deeper retreat cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0725) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for May 7 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 7, 2024 | 05:49 am

As the North American session begins, what are the key bias, risks, targets for the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and the GBPUSD. It is important as a trader to understand, what the price action is saying. The price action with technical tools, give traders a roadmap for their trading. In this video This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Yen extends losses, Fed members cautious

May 7, 2024 | 05:46 am

The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day on Tuesday. USD/JPY has risen 0.45%, up 154.59, up 0.45% at the time of writing. The yen is down 1% this week after soaring 3.4% against the dollar a week earlier. The markets are still buzzing after Japan’s Ministry of Finance apparently intervened twice last […]

GBP/USD Analysis: Strong Bearish Control - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 05:17 am

The late week decline in the GBP/USD exchange rate is an ominous sign and suggests potential losses in the coming days.

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest

May 7, 2024 | 05:11 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. Having said that the pairs are fairly scrunched together with the USD, CAD and EUR fighting for the strongest. The JPY is the most weakest followed by the AUD which is lower after their interest rate decision as the decision was thought to be somewhat less hawkish then expectations. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for May 2024, a move that was expected. In the statement, the RBA said that despite inflation showing signs of moderation, it is decreasing at a slower pace than expected. The RBA highlighted several uncertainties affecting the economic outlook, including persistent services inflation and weak household consumption growth. Additionally, uncertainties in the global economic environment continue to pose challenges. The RBA emphasized that the journey to bringing inflation back within the target range would be complex and extended, asserting a vigilant stance towards potential upside risks to inflation. They also remained non-committal about future monetary policy decisions.In her press conference following the decision , RBA's Michelle Bullock stated that the current interest rates are appropriately set to bring inflation back to the target level, although she acknowledged that recent economic data has been variable. Bullock emphasized the importance of a long-term perspective and the need for vigilance regarding inflation risks. She mentioned that while an additional tightening of rates might not be necessary, it cannot be entirely ruled out if required by future economic conditions. Bullock affirmed that the current policy stance is to maintain rates and closely monitor the economic developments. She noted that there had been discussions about possibly raising rates, particularly if inflation's decline is significantly delayed, but clarified that this is not the expected scenario at present. The market's current pricing is seen as relatively balanced, but she highlighted the importance of remaining alert, as the costs of higher inflation would outweigh those of lower inflation.In Japan, BoJ Governor Ueda had a routine discussion with Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, focusing on foreign exchange issues and the broader economic impacts. During their conversation, Ueda confirmed that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would consider the significant potential impacts of economic fluctuations and price changes in their policy decisions. He emphasized the central bank's readiness to closely monitor the effects of the Japanese Yen's movements on trend inflation and outlined the BoJ's commitment to guide its monetary policy from the perspective of sustainably achieving the inflation goal.Meanwhile in the EU, ECBs de Cos reiterated that rates can be cut from June if the price path holds and that the ECB is dependent and cannot commit to a specific rate path. Nothing new there.The BOE will be the next central bank to meet, and will announce their rate decision on Thursday at 7 AM ET.This morning, earnings from Disney and others were reported. Disney beat on EPS but was shy of expectations on revenues. Disney shares are trading down -5.3% in pre-market trading. US stocks are mixed with Dow up modestly. S&P near unchanged and the Nasdaq down modestly. Below are a list of some of the releases this morning. TransDigm Group Inc (TDG):EPS: $7.99 (expected $7.42) - BEATRevenue: $1.92 billion (expected $1.88 billion) - BEATGlobalFoundries (GFS):EPS: $0.31 (expected $0.23) - BEATRevenue: $1.549 billion (expected $1.52 billion) - BEATKenvue Inc (KVUE):EPS: $0.28 (expected $0.26) - BEATRevenue: $3.89 billion (expected $3.79 billion) - BEATFerrari (RACE IM):Revenue: €1.59 billion (expected €1.57 billion) - BEATAdj. EBITDA: €605 million (expected €605 million) - METAdj. Net Income: €352 million (expected €342 million) - BEATWalt Disney Co (DIS):EPS: $1.21 (expected $1.10) - BEATRevenue: $22.08 billion (expected $22.11 billion) - MISSEDDuke Energy Corp (DUK):EPS: $1.44 (expected $1.38) - BEATRevenue: $7.67 billion (expected $7.24 billion) - BEATThere are no major US economic data scheduled to be released today. The Ivey PMI index in Canada will be released at 10 AM. Last month the index came in at 57.5 seasonally adjusted. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $0.20 or -0.25% at $78.28. At this time yesterday, the price was at $79.02. Gold is trading down $12.20 or -0.53% at $2313.32. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2318.48Silver is trading down $0.17 or -0.62% at $27.26. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.10Bitcoin currently trades at $63,811. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $64,260In the premarket, the US major indices are trading mixed:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 29.53 points. Yesterday, the index rose 176.59 points or 0.46% at 38852.28.S&P futures are implying a gain of one point. Yesterday, the S&P index rose 52.93 points or 1.03% at 5180.73.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -24.32 points. Yesterday the index rose 192.92 points or 1.19% at 16349.25.European stock indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.50%France CAC , +0.21%UK FTSE 100, +1.03%Spain's Ibex, +0.85%. Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.28% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed/higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, +1.57%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.22%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.53%Australia S&P/ASX index, +1.44%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower. Today the U.S. Treasury will auction off 3-year notes. Tomorrow they will auction off 10- year note and on Thursday they will auction off 30-year bonds:2-year yield 4.822%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.799%5-year yield 4.476%, -0.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.472%10-year yield 4.473%, -1.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.489%30-year yield 4.619%, -2.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.694%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -34.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -31.2 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -19.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -15.3 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower. This article was[…]

Australian dollar weakens as RBA says no rate hikes planned

May 7, 2024 | 05:10 am

The Australian dollar has lost ground on Tuesday. AUD/USD has dropped by 0.31%, trading at 0.6604 in the European session at the time of writing. RBA stays pat but wary of inflation There was no surprise as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for a sixth straight time. The RBA […]

Ivey PMI. Canada, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2) in Canada, April data on the Ivey business activity index is due. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The value may increase from 57.5 points to 58.1 points, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

USD/JPY Analysis: Will it Return to Record Highs? - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 04:48 am

The Japanese yen has once again weakened past 154 yen to the dollar, giving up last week's gains even after top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said the government is ready to combat disorderly and speculative forex moves.

EUR/USD Analysis: Busy Week Ahead - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 04:41 am

According to recent trading, the euro appears increasingly ready to test some upside targets against the US dollar in the coming days, thanks to a strong reaction to the US jobs report on Friday.

Gold Analysis: New Buying Levels - 07 May 2024

May 7, 2024 | 04:36 am

Gold prices rose above $2328 an ounce today, Tuesday, supported by renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting US interest rates this year, after weaker-than-expected job growth in the United States.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis

May 7, 2024 | 04:18 am

The S&P 500 has been rising steadily since last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. All of the above is supportive for the market in the short term as the hawkish positioning unwinds a bit. S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the bigger correction into the 4834 level might have been invalidated for the time being. The S&P 500 bounced around the 5000 level as we got two positive catalysts from the FOMC decision and the softer US NFP data. The path of least resistance remains to the upside with new all-time highs in sight. S&P 500 E-mini Futures Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out to the upside following the softer US NFP report and after a retest of the 5120 zone, continued higher with the buyers piling in with more conviction. If we get a pullback, the 5167 level might be the first support for a dip-buying opportunity.Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY Technical Analysis - The path of least resistance remains to the upside

May 7, 2024 | 03:41 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced on the strong support zone around the 152.00 handle where we had the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers bought the dip offered by the miss in the US NFP report as that didn’t change much for the bigger picture. The sellers don’t have much to work with at the moment, so they might want to wait for the price to break below the trendline and the strong support around the 152.00 handle before piling in more aggressively and target the 146.00 handle.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the pair has now basically reached the key resistance zone around the 155.00 handle. The price is tentatively breaking above the trendline although we will likely need an extension above the 155.00 handle to trigger a stronger rally. That’s when we can expect the buyers to pile in with more conviction and target the 160.00 handle. The sellers might start stepping in around these levels to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward setup but there’s not much at the moment that can give them support. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the Japanese wage data and the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Forecast: Momentum as Rises

May 7, 2024 | 02:43 am

The euro rallied slightly during the early hours on Monday as it looks like we are threatening the 200 day EMA.

Precious Metals: Retreating From Resistance After Bullish Move

May 7, 2024 | 02:24 am

Gold and Silver are holding up relatively well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have recently seen in commodity markets.

Pound shrugs as construction PMI jumps

May 7, 2024 | 01:59 am

The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is down 0.21%, trading at 1.2535 in the European session at the time of writing. The UK construction PMI jumped to 53.0 in April, up from 50.2 in March and above the forecast of 50.4. This is only the second reading showing growth after six straight […]

USD/JPY Forecast: Debt Situation Dire

May 7, 2024 | 01:37 am

The dollar yen has recovered quite nicely during the Monday session, and we did start to see US dollar buying late on Friday as we approached the crucial 152 yen level.

EURUSD Technical Analysis - Tentative price action into the US CPI next week

May 7, 2024 | 01:29 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The EUR, on the other hand, has been gaining ground mainly because of the USD weakness and some positive news on the growth side as the PMIs continue to improve. The market has already fully priced in three rate cuts for the ECB this year, so that shouldn’t weigh much on the EUR anymore. The market will need something to give it a reason to price in a change in the Fed’s or ECB’s monetary policy to trigger another sustained move. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD spiked into the key trendline around the 1.08 handle following the soft US NFP report. The price eventually got rejected from the trendline and the market faded the spike as the data didn’t change much and we still have the US CPI risk ahead. The sellers will likely keep piling in around these levels to position for a drop into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking to the upside to increase the bullish bets into the 1.09 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.0727 level where we can find the confluence of the upward minor trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the downside to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty empty on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases left. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much though, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias might remain generally bullish because of the risk-on sentiment. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/NZD: Aussie medium-term outperformance against Kiwi intact supported by RBA

May 7, 2024 | 00:42 am

Today’s RBA monetary policy decision statement has kept the possibility of a rate hike before 2024 ends “alive”. The narrowing of the discount between Australia-New Zealand sovereign bonds yield spread has supported the potential continuation of the AUD/NZD medium-term uptrend phase. Watch the key medium-term support of 1.0940 on the AUD/NZD. The paths of inflationary […]

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.11; (P) 192.89; (R1) 194.11; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 193.86) will bring stronger rebound back toward 197.40 resistance. On the downside, below 191.34 will resume the correction from 200.53. Sustained trading below 55 D EMA […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:29 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.81; (P) 165.40; (R1) 166.34; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 55 4H EMA (now at 166.084) will bring stronger rebound towards 168.64 resistance. On the downside, break of 164.01, and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 164.06) will extend […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:25 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8559; (P) 0.8571; (R1) 0.8584; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. Focus remains on 0.8582 resistance. Further decline is expected as long as 0.8582 resistance holds. Below 0.8529 will target 0.8491/7 support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8582 will bring stronger rise back to 0.8643 resistance instead. In […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Dax Forecast: Builds Case for Basing

May 7, 2024 | 00:22 am

You can see that the DAX did rally pretty significantly right off the bat here early Monday morning, but we are starting to see trouble in a very familiar area.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Finds Support Against Canadian Dollar

May 7, 2024 | 00:18 am

The U.S. dollar has been choppy against the Canadian dollar during early trading on Monday.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

May 7, 2024 | 00:17 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9740; (P) 0.9753; (R1) 0.9773; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral with current recovery. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis - What changed after the RBA?

May 7, 2024 | 00:04 am

The USD weakened across the board recently due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The AUD, on the other hand, has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chances of a rate hike. The RBA today disappointed the hawks as it didn’t add any hawkish language in the statement and the RBA’s Governor Bullock sounded pretty neutral despite repeating the same old message that they are “not ruling anything in or out”. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the key resistance around the 0.6650 level held once again as the RBA disappointed the hawks. We might need a downside surprise in the US CPI report next week to see the AUDUSD pair breaking to the upside and extending the rally into new highs. For now, we remain in kind of a limbo where central banks keep rates higher for longer leading to big ranges across pairs with short term moves inside the ranges triggered by the repricing in expectations.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke below the trendline and it’s now near the 0.6577 level as the sellers regained some short term control. If we extend into the 0.6577 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level and position for a rally back into the key resistance zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see a clear break to the downside to pile in more aggressively and extend the drop into the 0.6464 swing low. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty empty on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases left. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much though, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias might remain generally bullish because of the risk-on sentiment. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Retail sales. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), data on retail sales in the EU is due. The indicator monthly records the totality of all goods retailers sold, based on a sample of retail outlets of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on a region’s gross domestic product. It may adjust from −0.5% to 0.6% MoM. Read more

Construction PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the construction sector is due in the UK. The indicator reflects the state of business sentiment in the construction market based on a survey of managers of the country’s largest companies. It may rise from 50.2 points to 50.4 points. Read more

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 6, 2024 | 23:18 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0753; (P) 1.0772; (R1) 1.0789; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. But further rally will be mildly in favor as long as 1.0648 support holds. Above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. In the bigger picture, […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Trade balance. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in Germany. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. It may adjust from 21.4B euros to 22.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

Factory orders. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of industrial orders is due in Germany. This indicator records the number of orders for durable and non-durable goods. It may change from 0.2% to 0.4%, supporting the euro. Read more

Unemployment rate. Switzerland, 07:45 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 20:45 pm

At 07:45 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish April data on the unemployment rate – an indicator that records the percentage of registered unemployed over 18 years to the total working-age population. The non-seasonally adjusted value may grow from 2.4% and the seasonally adjusted value from 2.3%, putting pressure on the franc. Read more

Interest rate decision. Australia, 06:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 19:30 pm

At 06:30 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. Officials are likely to keep the value at the current level of 4.35%. The accompanying statement may contain an assessment of the country’s financial authorities regarding the current state of the economy against global geopolitical tensions. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOE, RBA, China trade and inflation data on the radar for this week

May 6, 2024 | 18:08 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, two central banks’ monetary policy to ponder on ex-post “not so hawkish” FOMC last week engineered by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. In the Asia pacific region, we will have RBA meeting on Tuesday (7 May) […]

Retail sales. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Australia will release Q1 retail sales data, a key indicator of consumer spending that has a significant impact on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It may change from 0.3% to −0.2% MoM, putting pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2) in Japan, the April index of business activity in the service sector from the national Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is due. The indicator reflects the total cost of services purchased by companies in key service industries (excluding manufacturing) and is a leading indicator of the Tankan Business Activity Index. It may rise from 54.1 points to 54.6 points, supporting the yen. Read more

BRC retail sales monitor. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), April retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) is due. The indicator considers the dynamics of sales of goods in stores open for at least a year based on the information they regularly provide. The April value may change from 3.2% to 1.8%, supporting the pound. Read more

USDJPY stays above the 200 bar MA on 4-hour chart. Buyers in control above the MA.

May 6, 2024 | 13:31 pm

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD moved to 50% retracement and stalled. The price rotated lower. What next?

May 6, 2024 | 12:38 pm

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The AUDUSD is higher on the day but a ceiling area continues to stall the rallies

May 6, 2024 | 08:39 am

The AUDUSD raced higher on Friday, but found willing sellers near a key swing area between 0.6635 and 0.6648, before rotating back to the downside. In trading today, the price will back up to retest that swing area only to find willing sellers again. Needless to say, getting above that area is needed to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, traders will be watching for close support near the 50% midpoint of the range since the December high. That level comes in at 0.66159. If the price can stay above the midpoint level, the aforementioned ceiling area remains a key target to get to and through to give the buyers even more control.Conversely, on a move back below the 50% midpoint level, traders could see the price rotate back down for a retest of its 100-day moving average currently at 0.6579. That moving average level would be another key barometer for both buyers and sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Yen rally fizzles as US dollar climbs

May 6, 2024 | 08:29 am

The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Monday after stringing together a three-day rally. USD/JPY is trading at 153.92, up 0.62% at the time of writing. The yen took traders on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Japanese yen fell below the 160 level on Monday, setting another 34-year record before recovering. On Wednesday, the […]

USDCAD tests a key support level at 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart

May 6, 2024 | 07:51 am

The USDCAD bounce sharply higher after falling after the US jobs report on Friday. The move to the upside ended up retracing all of the declines and the pair closed higher on the day. Note that the high price on Friday stalled against its 200 hour moving average (green line currently at 1.3692. See the chart above). In trading today, the initial move was to the upside with the pair extending above its 200 hour moving out in the process. That should have led to increased momentum to the upside. Instead, the break failed, and buyers turned to sellers.In the early US session, we've seen an extension to the downside, with the price now moving below its 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36617. The price has also moved below a swing area between 1.3654 and 1.3668. However, support against the 200 more moving average on the 4-hour chart is providing a support for the pair. That level comes in at 1.3647What next?Get below the 200 bar moving average and stay below should increase the bearish bias with the 1.36319 as the next target. That level was the swing lows from April 26 and April 29 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF rotates modestly lower after a sharp move lower last week. What levels are in play?

May 6, 2024 | 07:22 am

The USDCHF fell on Friday to a key support target near the 0.9000. That came after the pair on Monday, moved up to test a key resistance target on the daily chart before reversing lower.The video above outlines the moves and discusses what next in the short term for the pair given the price action and technical levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro edges higher as eurozone data improves

May 6, 2024 | 06:25 am

The euro has started the new trading week quietly. EUR/USD is up 0.23%, trading at 1.0787 in the North American session at the time of trading. Eurozone investor confidence shows slight improvement The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index took a small step forward in May, rising to -3.6, up from -5.9 in April and was […]

Kickstart your FX trading for May 6 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 6, 2024 | 06:22 am

The US stocks are marginally higher in premarket trading. Yields are marginally lower. The USD is mixed.In the kickstart video, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD to start the trading week in the US session. What technical levels are in play and more importantly why. Kickstart your day/week, by knowing where we are and where we may be going from a technical perspective. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 6, 2024 | 05:12 am

The GBP is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mostly lower with modest declines of -0.08% to -0.26% for the EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, and NZD. The greenback is unchanged vs the CHF and stronger by 0.52% vs the JPY after its -3.38% decline last week - the largest one-week decline since early November 2022. Today is another "day after". Last week we had the day after the FOMC meeting and press conference where Chair Powell was less hawkish. Today, we are having another "day after" this time the weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll. That report saw Non-farm payroll jobs came in at 175K vs 238K expected, with the unemployment rate moving up to 3.9% from 3.8% previously. The hourly earnings declined to 3.9% its lowest level since 2021. So the two big events sent rates lower (10-year down 15.5 basis points), the USD lower (DXY down close to 1%), and stocks higher (S&P up +.55% after being down -1.70% at session lows on Wednesday).PS it is also the "week after" another big earnings week which completed the earnings announcements for this cycle for nearly all the high flyers except Nvidia which does not report until May 22. Nevertheless this week, there are still some interesting names reporting including:Monday, May 6: Berkshire Hathaway (over the weekend), Palantir * Lucid *Tuesday, May 7: Walt Disney, Celsius, Crocs, Ferrari, BP, Rivian *,Upstart *, Wynn *, Lyft*, Twilio *, Toast *Wednesday, May 8: Uber, Shopify, Toyota, Arm Holding *, AirBNB *,Beyond Meat *Thursday, May 9: Roblox, Warner Bros. discovery, Marathon oil, Unity SoftwareToday (the day after) yields are down (10-year yield down -1.5 basis points), the USD is mostly lower and the S&P is up (17 points or 0.33%).The economic calendar is void of any releases. Offer fats parking areas to speak at 4:50 PM ET, and NY Fed Pres. Williams is scheduled for 1 PM. Note that UK markets are closed todayA snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.90 at $79.02. At this time Friday, the price was at $79.19. For the week crude oil prices are down by 6.83%Gold is trading up $16.44 or 0.72% at $2318.48. At this time Friday, the price was higher at $2297.47. For the week gold prices are down - 1.54%Silver is trading up $0.54 or 2.07% at $27.10. At this time Friday, the price was at $26.46Bitcoin currently trades at $64,260. At this time Friday, the price was trading at $59,149. In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher ahead of the key US jobs reportDow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 136 points. Friday, the index closed up 450.02 points or 1.18% at 38675.69. For the week, the index rose 1.14%S&P futures are implying a gain of 18.46 points. Friday, the index rose 63.61 points or 1.26% at 5127.80. For the week, the index rose 0.55%.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 48.71 points. Friday, the index rose 315.37 points or 1.99% at 16156.33. For the week, the index rose 1.43% yesterday.European markets are trading higher:German DAX, 1.05%. Last week, the index fell -0.88%.France CAC , 0.92%. Last week, the index fell -1.62%UK FTSE 100, on holiday.. Last week, the index is rose 3.09%Spain's Ibex, 0.72%. Last week, the index fell -2.69%Italy's FTSE MIB, 1.15% (delayed 10 minutes).. Last week, the index fell -1.81%Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixedJapan's Nikkei 225, -0.10%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +1.16%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, was 0.55%Australia S&P/ASX index, was 0.70%Looking at the US debt market, yields are lower ahead of US jobs report:2-year yield 4.799%, -0.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.866%5-year yield 4.472%, -0.9 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.548%10-year yield 4.489%, -4.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.556%30-year yield 4.649%, -1.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.705%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -31.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -30.9 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -15.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -16.0 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – Dip-buyers are back in force.

May 6, 2024 | 04:22 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations. USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced on the strong support zone around the 152.00 handle where we had the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers stepped in and bought the dip offered by the miss in the US NFP report as that didn’t change much for the bigger picture. The sellers will need the price to break below the trendline to change the bias and start looking for new lows with the 146.00 handle as the first target.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a strong resistance around the 155.00 handle where we can also find the downward trendline defining the current short-term bearish trend. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline and position for a break below the 152.00 support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 160.00 handle. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the Japanese wage data and the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week, although the bias should remain bullish. See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis - The pair is at a key resistance ahead of the RBA

May 6, 2024 | 02:47 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. The AUD has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chances of a rate hike. AUDUSD Technical Analysis - Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the price has now reached a key resistance zone around the 0.6650 level where the pair got rejected several times in the past few months. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance and position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the upside to pile in with more conviction and start targeting the cycle highs. AUDUSD Technical Analysis - 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current uptrend on this timeframe with a minor support zone around the 0.66 handle. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers leaning on it to position for a hawkish RBA decision and targeting a break above the resistance zone. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to start piling in and increase the bearish bets in case the RBA disappoints. A break below the 0.6577 level should technically reverse the trend and open up room for a drop into the 0.6465 swing low. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front as we have just the RBA decision tomorrow, the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. We might see some risk-on sentiment this week following the US data on Friday, so even if the RBA disappoints, the USD could still remain under pressure. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF Technical Analysis - The pair bounced from the 0.90 handle

May 6, 2024 | 02:10 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushed back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. On the other hand, the CHF appreciated substantially following the higher than expected Swiss CPI figures last Thursday. The market paired back a little the very dovish pricing for the SNB and now sees just a 60% chance of a rate cut in June. Overall, this shouldn't change much for the SNB as they have already projected in March that CPI would average 1.4% in Q2, so that's not really a surprise for them. USDCHF Technical Analysis - Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF got rejected from the 0.92 handle and dropped all the way down to the key 0.90 handle helped by the more dovish than expected Fed and the higher than expected Swiss inflation figures. We can notice that the pair hasn't been able to break below the 0.90 level as the buyers kept on buying the dips. This makes it a key support going forward as a break to the downside might trigger a bigger selloff with the buyers folding and the sellers piling in more aggressively. USDCHF Technical Analysis - 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 0.91 handle where they will also find the previous support now turned resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the highs. Upcoming CatalystsThis week is pretty bare on the data front with just the US Jobless Claims on Thursday and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday being the only notable releases. It’s unlikely that they will change the market’s expectations that much, so the price action might remain tentative heading into the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Technical: A floor may have been formed for the bulls

May 6, 2024 | 01:46 am

Stagflation risk is still lingering as indicated by the latest April US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. A not fully priced-in stagflation risk scenario may support another bullish impulsive upmove sequence for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key medium-term pivotal zone of US$2,260/2,210 for Gold (XAU/USD). This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, […]

AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision next

May 6, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. RBA widely expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to […]

Producer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the producer price index in the EU is due. The indicator reflects changes in the price of goods at the wholesale level (raw materials, semi-finished products and final goods are taken into account). Increasing prices for producers contributes to the growth of consumer inflation in the region. A decrease of the indicator from –8.3% YoY and from –1.0% MoM will put pressure on the euro. Read more

Sentix investor confidence. EU, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), the May EU Investor Confidence Index from Sentix is due. The indicator reflects investor confidence in the economic prospects of the region. It may accelerate the decline from −5.9 points, putting pressure on the euro and negatively affect the dynamics of the EU stock market. Read more

Service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April index of business activity in the EU services sector is due, based on a survey of purchasing managers of non-manufacturing enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The April index may decrease from 51.5 points to 51.1 points, and the composite value – from 51.4 points to 49.9 points. Read more

Service PMI. Germany, 09:55 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 22:55 pm

At 09:55 (GMT+2), the April index of business activity in the German services sector is due, based on a survey of supply managers of non-production enterprises, and their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. The April index may decrease from 53.3 points to 50.6 points, and the composite value – from 50.5 points to 48.6 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Caixin Manufacturing PMI. China, 03:45 (GMT+2)

May 5, 2024 | 16:45 pm

At 03:45 (GMT+2), China will publish April data on the manufacturing business activity index from Caixin. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development is assessed. It may grow from 52.7 points, supporting the yuan. Read more

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. Earlier, the number of towers remained at 511 pieces. Read more

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the April service business activity index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is due in the United States, based on a survey of representatives of 375 companies from 17 non-manufacturing sectors and reflecting business conditions in the country. The indicator may adjust from 51.4 points to 52.0 points in April. Read more

NZ dollar higher as nonfarm payrolls looms

May 3, 2024 | 04:28 am

The New Zealand dollar has extended its gains on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5985, up 0.39% at the time of writing. It has been a roller-coaster ride for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 1.5% on Tuesday but has since rebounded and fully recovered. US nonfarm payrolls expected to ease The US economy remains […]

Pound edges higher as UK Services PMI beats estimate

May 3, 2024 | 03:32 am

The British is in positive territory on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2555, up 0.16% at the time of writing. UK Services PMI hits 11-month high The service sector accelerated in April, as the Services PMI rose to 55.0, up from 53.1 in April. This was the strongest level since May 2023 and services has […]

Nonfarm payrolls. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector. It is a key indicator of employment in the country, based on payroll data. It may decrease from 303.0K to 243.0K, and the same figure for the private non-agricultural sector – from 232.0K to 180.0K, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Unemployment rate. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on the unemployment rate. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed citizens over 18 years to the total working-age population. In April, the figure is likely to remain at 3.8%. Read more

Average hourly wage. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the US, April data on average hourly wages is due, recording changes in the level for major types of industry, except agriculture. In April, the figure is likely to remain at 0.3%. Read more

Nasdaq 100: Sandwiched, watch the US 10-year Treasury yield next

May 3, 2024 | 02:42 am

Nasdaq 100 has exhibited short-term intraday wild gyrations of 3% to 4% in opposite directions since last week. Today’s data focus will be on US non-farm payrolls and ISM Services PMI for April to offer clues on whether the stagflation risk narrative is still alive. Macro factors such as the movement of the US 10-year […]

USD/JPY calm ahead of US nonfarm payrolls

May 3, 2024 | 01:53 am

The Japanese yen has extended its gains on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 153.26, down 0.27% at the time of writing. It has been a week to remember as the yen has soared 3.2% against the dollar. The yen fell below the 160 level earlier in the week, setting another 34-year record. However, the Japan’s […]

Unemployment rate. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 3, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the unemployment rate in the EU countries is due – an indicator that records the percentage of registered unemployed over 18 years to the total working-age population. The rate may remain at 6.5% in March. Read more

Service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), the April index of business activity in the UK services sector is due, based on a survey of supply managers at non-production enterprises in the country, and assesses the respondents’ attitude to the current economic situation. It may rise from 53.1 points to 54.9 points in April and the composite value from 52.8 points to 54.0 points. Read more

Consumer price index. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), Turkey will publish the April consumer price index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in the cost of a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the monetary policy decisions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. It may increase from 3.16% to 3.50% MoM and from 68.50% to 69.10% YoY. Read more

AUD/USD jumps after Fed says rate hike unlikely

May 2, 2024 | 07:04 am

The Australian dollar has steadied after two straight days of sharp swings. AUD/USD is up 0.14%, trading at 0.6532 at the time of writing in the North American session. It has been a roller-coaster for the Australian dollar this week. The Aussie fell 1.4% on Tuesday, as weak Australian retail sales and a decline in […]

Canadian dollar edges higher as Fed pauses again

May 2, 2024 | 05:07 am

USD/CAD is steady on Thursday and is trading at 1.3720, down 0.14% at the time of writing. Powell says inflation still too high to lower rates The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark rate in the target range of 5.25% to 5.50% for a six straight time at the Wednesday meeting. Fed Chair Powell said that […]

Factory orders. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of industrial orders is due in the United States. This indicator captures the change in the number of orders for durable and non-durable goods. The figure may change from 1.4% to 1.6%, supporting the American dollar. Read more

USD/JPY slides – did Tokyo intervene?

May 2, 2024 | 03:59 am

It has been a remarkable week for the yen, which has exhibited sharp swings throughout the week. The Japanese yen fell as much as 1% earlier and on Thursday but has pared most of those losses. USD/JPY has risen 0.38% to 155.19 at the time of writing. In the Asian session, the yen fell as […]

Trade balance. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), March data on the US trade balance is due. This indicator records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods; its increase is a positive factor for the national currency. The balance sheet deficit may accelerate from –68.90B American dollars to –69.30B American dollars, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Trade balance. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 2, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in Canada. This indicator records the difference between payments for exported and imported goods, and its increase is a positive factor for the national currency. It may change from 1.39B Canadian dollars to 1.00B Canadian dollars, putting pressure on the Canadian dollar. Read more

Manufacturing PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April purchasing managers index in the manufacturing sector of the EU countries is due, based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries, assessing their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The index may change from 46.1 points to 45.6 points. Read more

Manufacturing PMI. Germany, 09:55 (GMT+2)

May 1, 2024 | 22:55 pm

At 09:55 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the German manufacturing sector is due, based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. Also, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The index may rise from 41.9 points to 42.2 points. Read more

USD/JPY calm ahead of Fed decision

May 1, 2024 | 08:14 am

Japanese yen is trading quietly on Wednesday. USD/JPY is trading at 157.68, down 0.07% at the time of writing. Fed expected to hold rates The Federal Reserve meets later today and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged for a sixth straight time. The target range for the benchmark rate of 5.25% to 5.5% hasn’t […]

AUD/USD stabilizes after taking a tumble, Fed next

May 1, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Australian dollar has steadied on Wednesday after sliding 1.4% a day earlier. AUD/USD is up 0.19%, trading at 0.6489 at the time of writing in the North American session. Australian dollar slides after soft retail sales Retail sales in Australia fell 0.4% m/m in March, following a downwardly revised 0.2% gain in February and […]

NZ dollar shrugs after soft jobs report

May 1, 2024 | 03:02 am

The New Zealand dollar has steadied on Thursday, after a sharp decline of 1.5% a day earlier. NZD/USD is trading higher 0.08% on the day at 0.5890, at the time of writing. New Zealand’s employment declines New Zealand’s labor market is showing signs of cracks. Employment in the fourth quarter declined by 0.2% q/q, down […]

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