Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

2-for-1: A technical look at the AUDUSD and NZDUSD as the USD gets bid

May 10, 2024 | 08:19 am

The University of Michigan inflation expectation data sent the US dollar higher and the AUDUSD and NZDUSD pairs lower. Those moves to the downside, extended each pair to new session Lois, and in the process, each are also testing their 100-hour moving averages. Both also have found some risk-focused buyers leaning against the moving average level.If the buyers are able to hold that support, call off the bearish dogs. The buyers hold the technical bias. Conversely, if the levels are broken, it would shift the bias more in favor of the sellers at least in the short term.This video outlines the levels and the technicals in play. Key support level for both major currency pairs being tested. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes is due. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. Previously, it dropped to 499 units, acting as a driver for the growth of oil prices. Read more

EUR/USD. May 10th. Traders continue to torment the dollar

May 10, 2024 | 07:56 am

The EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency on Thursday and resumed its growth, ending the day in the resistance zone of 1.0764–1.0806 and near the resistance zone of 1.0785–1.0797. A rebound of quotes from either the first or the second zone will favor the US currency and lead to a new decline towards the lower line of the ascending trend corridor. Only consolidation above the level of 1.0806 will allow traders to count on further growth of the euro. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last downward wave failed to approach the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has already surpassed the peak of the previous wave. Thus, a "bullish" trend has formed, but its prospects raise doubts for me. The news background has supported bullish traders over the past 2-3 weeks. However, will it continue to support them further? This is a big question, as the European Union's economy is experiencing difficult times, and the ECB is ready to start easing monetary policy earlier than the Fed, which already has a much lower interest rate at the moment.There was no significant news in the EU and the US on Thursday, but it was present in the UK. The meeting of the Bank of England triggered bullish activity in the second half of the day. In my opinion, this is a very strange reaction of the bulls, as the outcome of the Bank of England meeting can hardly be called "hawkish." The rate decision vote ended with a count of 7-2, not 8-1 as predicted, and Andrew Bailey did not rule out a rate cut as early as June. By all parameters, the pound should have fallen yesterday, and along with it, the euro. But everything turned out exactly the opposite. Such moments are not uncommon in the market. Some characterize them as "buy on rumors, sell on facts." However, if traders were selling the pound on rumors, they should have also been selling on facts. On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the upper line of the "wedge." A new rebound from this line will again favor the US dollar and lead to a downward movement toward the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0644). Consolidation of quotes above the "wedge" will increase the probability of further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 50.0% at 1.0862 and change the "bearish" trend to "bullish." There are no imminent divergences observed today.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:During the last reporting week, speculators closed 111 long contracts and 3323 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group has turned "bearish" and is rapidly strengthening. The total number of Long contracts held by speculators now stands at 167 thousand, while Short contracts amount to 173 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. The second column shows that the number of Short positions has increased from 92 thousand to 173 thousand over the past three months. During the same period, Long positions decreased from 211 thousand to 167 thousand. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong news background to resume the "bullish" trend. Several poor reports from the US supported the euro, but in the long run, more is needed.News Calendar for the US and EU:US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).On May 10, the economic events calendar contains one entry. The impact of the news background on traders' sentiment for the remaining part of the day will be weak.EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:New sales of the pair are possible upon a rebound of quotes from the zone of 1.0785–1.0797 on the hourly chart, with the target being the lower line of the ascending corridor. I would not consider buying the euro until the pair consolidates above the level of 1.0806 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.0840 and 1.0874. It is also possible to buy in case of a rebound of quotes from the lower line of the ascending corridor.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. May 10th. The British economy was pleasantly surprised

May 10, 2024 | 07:33 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday executed the second bounce from the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2464) and resumed its upward movement. Already today, consolidation above the level of 1.2517 was achieved, which allows counting on further growth towards the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.2565. A bounce of quotes from this level or consolidation below 1.2517 will favor the US dollar and the resumption of the downward movement towards the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2363). The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, and the new downward wave is still too weak to break the low of April 22. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion. The first sign of bulls transitioning to an offensive could be the breakout of the peak from May 3. A new downward wave, if it turns out to be weak and does not break the low of April 22, could also indicate a trend change. But for now, I cannot consider it 100% completed. Waves in recent months have been quite large, so it is necessary to scale down the hourly chart to understand the current trend clearly.The results of the Bank of England's third meeting in 2024 were supposed to help the bears go on the offensive. Andrew Bailey stated that the interest rate could be lowered early in June. Even if this does not happen at the next meeting, Bailey believes that the Bank of England will ease monetary policy faster than the markets expect. Both of these statements are "dovish," which should have given confidence to the bears. But instead of the expected decline in the pound, we saw its rise. The growth continued today but was already very weak, although I would have supported the bulls today. The British economy in the first quarter showed growth of 0.6% against traders' expectations of 0.4%. Industrial production grew by 0.2% in March, although traders expected a volume decrease. In general, "the British mind is incomprehensible." On the 4-hour chart, the pair bounced off the level of 1.2620, which suggests a decline in the pound. However, the bounce from the level of 1.2450 allowed quotes to rise slightly, so they again found themselves near the upper line of the corridor. This line has already been breached but is still not worth burying the "bearish" trend. It is difficult to say why bullish traders may continue to attack in the coming months, especially when the Bank of England is preparing for monetary easing.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category for the last reporting week has become more "bearish." The number of Long contracts held by speculators decreased by 4791 units, and the number of Short contracts decreased by 2034. The overall sentiment of major players has changed, and now bears are dictating their terms in the market. The gap between the Long and Short contracts is 30,000: 43,000 versus 73,000.There are prospects for a decline in the pound. Over the past three months, the number of Long contracts has decreased from 62,000 to 43,000, while the number of Short contracts has increased from 47,000 to 73,000. Over time, bulls will start getting rid of Buy positions or increasing Sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. Bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete unwillingness to go on the offensive in recent months, but I still expect the pound to experience a more significant decline.News Calendar for the US and UK:UK - Change in GDP volume in the first quarter (06:00 UTC).UK - Changes in industrial production volumes (06:00 UTC).US - University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC).On Friday, the economic events calendar contains several important entries, two of which have already become available. The impact of the news background on market sentiment for the rest of the day will be weak.GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:Sales of the pound are possible upon closing below the level of 1.2517 or upon a rebound from 1.2565 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2464. Purchases could have been considered upon a rebound from the level of 1.2464 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2517 and 1.2565. The first target has been achieved, and the second one remains.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 10th (US session)

May 10, 2024 | 07:26 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the Japanese yenThere were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, although the pair traded quite close to the 155.79 price. Against this background, I had to reconsider the technical picture and narrow down the nearest levels from which I plan to make decisions. Data from Japan did not attract much interest from traders, although the statistics could have been better. In the second half of the day, we expect figures on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Inflation plays a key role in determining monetary policy in the US, so if there are concerns about its further increase, the dollar may significantly strengthen its position against the yen. If we don't see anything unusual in the figures, trading will likely continue in a sideways channel, which is undesirable. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 155.81 (green line) to rise to 156.13 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.13, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, you can expect the pair to rise further in continuation of the bullish market. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.62 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 155.81 and 156.13.Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after updating the level of 155.62 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.31, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of very poor US data and problems overcoming the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.81 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. Expect a decrease towards the opposite levels of 155.62 and 155.31.On the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD finds willing sellers against its 50% midpoint and 200 day MA

May 10, 2024 | 07:22 am

The EURUSD moved higher in the early US session reaching a new intraday high of 1.07895. That got within a paper so of the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March 2024 high to the April 2024 low at 1.07906. The 200 day moving averages just above that level.The subsequent fall held by the higher University of Michigan inflation expectation data as the price currently trading at 1.0768. The low for the day reached 1.07652. The 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.0761.The NASDAQ index did dip back into negative territory giving up a gain of 91.13 points after the higher inflation expectations. It currently is up 10.37 points or 0.06%. The S&P index remains in positive territory with the low at +8.32 points. The index is currently up 11.42 points or 0.22%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on May 10th (US session)

May 10, 2024 | 07:19 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the British poundI did not test the levels I indicated in the first half of the day. The pound's rise after good GDP and industrial production data from the UK quickly ended, barely getting started. As a result, I did not see the continuation of the upward trend formed after yesterday's Bank of England meeting. In the second half of the day, we expect some very interesting figures on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Most likely, the dollar will react with growth to the data, increasing pressure on the pound, which is not in demand today. I will count on a more active session with the formation of suitable entry points. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2537 (green line) to rise to 1.2565 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.2565, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, the pound's rise can only be expected after weak US statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2522 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal in the market. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.2537 and 1.2565.Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after updating the level of 1.2522 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2500. I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves in case of a lack of activity near the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive price tests at 1.2537 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decrease towards the opposite levels of 1.2522 and 1.2500.On the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders for May 10th (US session)

May 10, 2024 | 07:06 am

Trade analysis and tips for trading the European currencyThe test of the price at 1.0787 in the first half of the day occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The pair didn't quite reach the retest of 1.0787 - it missed by a couple of points, so scenario #2 couldn't be realized. The lack of Eurozone statistics affected the market and its volatility. But in the second half of the day, we are expecting some very interesting figures on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Regardless of the data outcome, the dollar will likely react with growth, increasing pressure on the euro. For this reason, I will expect a more active session with the formation of suitable entry points. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0787 (green line on the chart) to rise to the level of 1.0816. At point 1.0816, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth can be expected today, but only within a sideways channel. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0775 when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0787 and 1.0816.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching 1.0775 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0745, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity near the daily high and strong US data. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0787 when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. Expect a decrease towards the opposite levels of 1.0775 and 1.0745.On the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought. Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely. Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold. Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely. MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for May 10-15, 2024: buy above $2,960 (-1/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

May 10, 2024 | 07:05 am

Ethereum is trading around 3,031.38, bouncing back after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel forming since April 30. The outlook could be positive for Ether if it consolidates above the psychological level of $3,000 in the coming days.In case ETH/USD makes a technical correction towards -1/8 Murray, around this area is the bottom of the uptrend channel that could be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 0/8 Murray located at 3,125. Eventually, the price could reach 1/8 Murray which coincides with the top of the uptrend channel around 3,281.The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. So, we believe that any pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity.In case Ether falls below 2,960 and consolidates below this area, the outlook could be negative and we could expect the price to reach -2/8 of Murray located at 2,812.For this weekend, we believe that Ethereum could strengthen so we will look for opportunities to buy above 2,970 or above the psychological level of $3,000, with targets at the 200 EMA located at 3,150 and finally, at 3,280.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 10th (analysis of morning deals). The pound hit 1.2535

May 10, 2024 | 07:01 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.2535 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakdown there led to an excellent entry point for the sale of the pound, however, after moving down by 12 points, the pressure on the pair eased. Apparently, traders remembered yesterday's meeting of the Bank of England and did not force events. In the afternoon, the technical picture was slightly revised.To open long positions on GBP/USD, it is required:Even strong UK GDP data, which turned out to be quite good, did not help the buyers of the pound today. Ahead of us are the May reports on the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations from the same institution, which may lead to another surge in volatility, continuing the upward trend in the pound. If the data turns out to be better than expected, I think you can no longer count on the growth of GBP/USD today. In the current situation, I will consider purchases in the area of the new support of 1.2504, formed following the results of yesterday. The moving averages are also located there. I'm going to act only after the formation of a false breakout, which will give an entry point into long positions that can push the pound into the 1.2538 area. Only a rush and a top-down test of this range against the background of weak US data is a chance for GBP/USD growth with the 1.2569 update. In the case of an exit above this range, we can talk about a breaktout to 1.2606, but this is unlikely. I'm going to make a profit there. In the scenario of GBP/USD falling and no buyers at 1.2504 in the afternoon, the pressure on the pound will increase, which will lead to a downward movement to the area of 1.2476. The formation of a false breakdown there will be a suitable option for entering the market. It is possible to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2448 in order to correct 30-35 points within a day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:If the US data coincides with economists' forecasts, it is unlikely that this will have much effect on the pound, so the bears may have difficulty defending the new resistance of 1.2538. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakdown there will lead to an entry point into short positions with the target of falling GBP/USD to the area of 1.2504. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom up of this range will increase the pressure on the pair, giving the bears an advantage and another entry point to sell with the target of updating 1.2476. A test of this level will put buyers in a very dangerous position. A longer-range target will be a minimum of 1.2448, where I will record profits. With the option of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2538 in the afternoon, and this is possible only against the background of very weak consumer sentiment in the United States, bulls will have the opportunity for a larger correction and an update to the level of 1.2569. I will also serve there only on a false breakout. In the absence of activity there, I advise you to open short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2606, counting on the pair's rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 30 showed a sharp reduction in long and short positions. The labor market report has not yet been taken into account in these indicators, so objectively we have incomplete data. But we have a meeting of the Bank of England ahead, at which the position of the regulator may affect the balance of power in the market. For this reason, the small outflow and reduction of positions of buyers and sellers is not surprising. The fact that there are one and a half times more short positions in itself indicates a medium-term trend, which I will continue to adhere to. The latest COT report says that long non-profit positions decreased by 4,791 to 43,668, while short non-profit positions fell by 2,034 to 72,658. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 550.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pound growth.Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2515, will act as support.Indicator description • Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow. • Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green. • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 • Bollinger Bands. Period 20 • Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements. • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 10th (analysis of morning deals). The euro shows no signs of life

May 10, 2024 | 06:51 am

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.0785 level and planned to make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The growth and formation of a false breakout there gave an excellent entry point into short positions. However, it never reached a major sell-off, and trading was conducted near the 1.0785 level for the entire first half of the day. And in the second half of the day, the technical picture was not revised.To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:Given the lack of important data on the eurozone, the market was not saved even by the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank. But there is hope: we have US data coming out ahead, and these data are related to inflation. The May reports on the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan and inflation expectations from the same institution may lead to a surge in volatility, so sellers still have every chance of working out the morning scenario. Given the sluggishness of the market, I plan to buy the euro as low as possible, relying more on the support of 1.0754, where the moving averages are located slightly higher. The formation of a false breakout at this level will be a suitable option for entering the market in the expectation of an upward movement to the area of 1.0785. But a breakout and a top-down update of this range will lead to a strengthening of the pair with a chance of a breakthrough to 1.0812, which will allow the upward correction to continue with an exit above the upper limit of the side channel. The farthest target will be the 1.0850 area, where I will record profits. With the option of a decrease in EUR/USD and a lack of activity around 1.0754 in the afternoon, problems for euro buyers will only be added, which will lead to a larger drop in the pair. In this case, I will enter only after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of the next support 1.0726. I'm going to open long positions immediately for a rebound from 1.0702 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:The sellers proved themselves, but this is clearly not enough to influence the situation as a whole. As long as trading is below 1.0785, the chances of the pair falling remain. Before selling again, I would like to see the presence of major players in the market and see another formation of a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.0785. This would be a suitable scenario for opening short positions with the prospect of a decline in the euro and an update to support 1.0754. Only very good data on US consumer sentiment will be able to help with this. A breakout and consolidation below this range, as well as a reverse test from the bottom up, will give another selling point with the pair moving to the low of 1.0726. The farthest target will be a minimum of 1.0702, where I will record profits. A test of this level will indicate a resumption of the bear market. In the event of an upward movement of EUR/USD in the afternoon, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0785, buyers will have a chance for a further upward correction. In this case, I will postpone the sale until the test of the next resistance of 1.0812. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately for a rebound from 1.0850 with the aim of a downward correction of 30-35 points.The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 30 showed a reduction in long and short positions. The meeting of the Federal Reserve System could be interpreted in two ways, for this reason, there were no serious changes in the market. Some people have a chance that the Fed will start cutting rates this year, just as those who continue to buy the dollar, betting on a longer period of high interest rates, have exactly the same chances. The data released on the US labor market last week has not yet been taken into account in this COT report, so we do not fully see the whole picture. But despite this, I expect the pair to fall further within the framework of the observed medium-term trend. The COT report indicated that long non-profit positions fell by 111 to the level of 167,185, while short non-profit positions fell by 3,323 to the level of 173,962. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 618.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair growth.Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.Bollinger BandsIn case of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0754, will act as support.Indicator description • Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow. • Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green. • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9 • Bollinger Bands. Period 20 • Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements. • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for May 10-15, 2024: buy above $62,500 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

May 10, 2024 | 06:47 am

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is trading around 63,207, above the 21 SMA, and within the uptrend channel forming since April 30.On Thursday, the crypto reached the low of 60,500, the level that coincided with the bottom of the uptrend channel which gives us a positive outlook for Bitcoin as it could continue its rise in the coming days and reach 5/8 of Murray located at 65,650. Eventually, it could reach the top of the uptrend channel at about 67,500.In case Bitcoin makes a technical correction in the next hours, this could be seen as an opportunity to buy. If BTC consolidates above 62,500, it will be seen as a good point for our buy orders.In case Bitcoin falls and tests the bottom of the uptrend channel around 61,300 and a technical rebound occurs above this area, it will be a clear confirmation for a resumption of the bullish cycle. Thus, we could buy above 61,500 with targets at 65,625 and at $67,000.Bitcoin could lose its positive outlook if it falls below $61,000. Additionally, Bitcoin could gain more bullish strength if the price consolidates above the 200 EMA located at 63,756.For this weekend, we expect a positive scenario for Bitcoin. For this, we could pay attention to the level of 63,756 since Bitcoin could easily exceed this area and reach $68,750.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 06:21 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0742; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0803; More… No change in EUR/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0742) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Video market update for May 10, 2024

May 10, 2024 | 06:19 am

Potential for the further rally on USDJPYThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 06:18 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2471; (P) 1.2499; (R1) 1.2552; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral for the moment. Strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2445 will indicate that this rebound […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for April 10 w/a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

May 10, 2024 | 06:17 am

In the kickstart video for April 10, I take a look at three of the major currency pairs from a technical perspective - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. In this report, I also take a quick look at the USDCAD after it's stronger than expected April jobs report which showed a gain of 90.4K - the largest increase since January 2023.The EURSUD was trading in a narrow 15 pip trading range coming into the US session, and has extended to the downside. However, the 100-day moving average at 1.07607 remains as a level that would need to get broken to increase the bearish bias. On the top side, is strong resistance at the 200 day moving average and 50% midpoint of the move down from the March high. That level comes in at 1.07906.The USDJPY got within "spitting distance" of its 200 hour moving average support target in the Asian session, and found willing buyers against that level (the low reached 155.25 with the moving average at 155.21 at the time). The subsequent rise has now taken the price back up to 155.78. On the top side looms the high from yesterday's trade at 155.95. Above that, the 50% of the move down from the April high (and highest level going back to 1990) comes in at at 156.029. That area is a key level for both buyers and sellers going forward.The GBPUSD moved higher in the European session, but found willing sellers ahead of its key 200-day moving average at 1.25421 (the high price reach 125.40 just two pips short of that level). The subsequent move to the downside has the pair testing the low of a cluster of moving averages near 1.2517. Getting below that level would tilt the bias more to the downside for today and going into next week.Finally, the USDCAD has moved lower after it's stronger than expected Canadian jobs report. The move lower took price below its 200-bar moving average on the 4- hour chart at 1.3665. That is now resistance (stay below keeps the sellers in control). On the downside, the low price stalled at the April 26 and April 29 low at 1.3632. Going forward, it would take a move below that level to increase the bearish bias and have traders looking toward the low price from last week at 1.36096. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 06:16 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9042; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9087; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9088) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9004) will bring deeper fall to […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 10, 2024 | 05:53 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.12; (P) 155.54; (R1) 155.91; More… No change in USD/JPY’s outlook and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

NZ dollar dips as Manufacturing PMI contracts

May 10, 2024 | 05:24 am

The New Zealand dollar is lower on Friday. NZD/USD is down 0.31% on the day, trading at 0.6015 in the European session at the time of writing. New Zealand manufacturing has been in a prolonged slump and the April Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction, with a reading of 48.9, up from 47.1 in March. The […]

The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 10, 2024 | 05:08 am

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest. The USD is the mostly but modestly stronger with gains vs all the major currencies in the morning snapshot. Having said that, the EURUSD only has a 15 pip up and down trading range (vs 58 pip average over the last month of trading), USDCAD is in a 19 pip trading range (vs 69 pip average over the last month of trading), USDCHF only 20 pips (vs 54 average), AUDUSD 24 pips (vs 56 pips) and NZDUSD 26 pips (vs 50 pip average). The USDJPY has a 52 pip range, but that is well short of the recent average of 153 pip average (thanks to some intervention by the BOJ along the way). The point is, the price action is not that great to start the last day of the US session this week. Coming into the day, BOEs Huw Pill spoke/is speaking and highlighted the significance of focusing on the persistent components of inflation, beyond just the headline rate. Pill noted that the more enduring parts of inflation are showing signs of a decline. He emphasized that the central bank might consider reducing the bank rate once there is sufficient evidence that these persistent inflation elements are on a downward trajectory. Pill also cautioned that concentrating solely on the upcoming Bank of England meeting would be somewhat misguided, underscoring the importance of looking at the underlying factors of inflation.The minutes from the ECB's April 2024 policy meeting were just released and said that members are considering the possibility of easing monetary policy as early as the June meeting, contingent upon receiving additional evidence that supports the medium-term inflation outlook projected in March. Although a few members were already confident enough to advocate for a reduction in policy rates at the current meeting, there was a broad consensus to wait for more substantial data. This decision reflects a balanced view of the risks between prematurely lowering rates and potentially missing the inflation target, which could lead to a significant downturn in economic activity. The discussions emphasized the importance of a data-dependent approach, cautioning against overreliance on any single data point given the likely volatility in economic indicators. The ECB aims to maintain flexibility in its decisions and has successfully communicated its strategies to the markets, which are now anticipating the possibility of a rate cut in June.Today the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment will be released at 10 AM PT with expectations of 76.0 versus 77.2 last month. The current conditions came in at 79.0 last month while the expectations was at 76.0 with expectations of 75.0 this month.Also on the calendar today will be Canada's employment statistics which will be released at 8:30 AM. The expectations are for Employment change of 18.0K versus -2.2K last month. Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.2% from 6.1%. Full-time employment last month came in at -0.7K Part-time employment fell by -1.6K. Participation rate came in at 65.3 last month. On the Fed Speak calendar today:9 AM ET Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman speaks on "Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators" before the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention10 AM ET Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference1 PM ET Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari introduces Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and moderator Steve Liesman of CNBC in a question-and-answer session before Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon1:30 PM ET Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives commencement speech before the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation ceremony. Barr is in charge of regulation and supervision and may not speak on policy directlyIn geopolitical news, the below tweet (or X) sums it up but the situation is still fluid of course:A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins has oil higher, gold higher and bitcoin higher.Crude oil is trading up $0.62 or 0.79% at $79.88. At this time yesterday, the price was at $79.61Gold is trading up 27.57 points or 1.18% at $2373.07. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2315.90Silver is trading up $0.29 or 1.02% at $28.60. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.71.Bitcoin currently trades at $63,021. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $61,120In the premarket, the Dow is working on its eighth day in a row higher. The S&P and Nasdaq has had a more choppy trading environment but are coming off gains from yesterday. All the major indices are also higher for the week. A summary of the indices as implied by futures are currently showing: Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 107 points or 0.20%. Yesterday, the index rose 331.37 points or 0.85% at 39387.77. The Dow Industrial Average average is up 1.84% this week.S&P futures are implying a gain of 15.92 points or 0.20%. Yesterday the index rose 26.41 points or 0.51% at 5214.07. The S&P index is up 1.68% coming into the day.Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 71 points or 0.36%. Yesterday the index rose 43.51 points or 0.27% at 16346.26. The NASDAQ index is up 1.18% this week.European stock indices are trading higher. German, France and UK indices are on pace to close at a record levels. France is on pace to join the other two indices today:German DAX, +0.54%. The German DAX is up 4.38% this week the largest gain since November 2023.France CAC , +0.67%. The index is up 3.59% this week. Matt is on pace for the largest gain since 3.71% in October 2023. At current levels the CAC is on pace to close at a record level.UK FTSE 100, 0.78%. The index is up 2.86% this week and trading at a new record high.Spain's Ibex, +0.64%. The index is up 2.41% this week.Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.04% (delayed 10 minutes). The index[…]

Michigan consumer sentiment. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish May data on changes in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. The indicator is calculated monthly based on a telephone survey of at least 500 American households and records consumer spending that is part of economic activity. The value may decrease from 77.2 points to 76.3 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Employment changes. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April employment data is due in Canada. This indicator records changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. It may change from −2.2K to 20.9K, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Unemployment rate. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 10, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), April data on the unemployment rate is due in Canada. This indicator records the percentage of registered unemployed citizens over 18 years to the total working-age population. The figure may rise from 6.1% to 6.2%. Read more

Forex forecast 05/10/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

May 10, 2024 | 03:24 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links:My other articles are available in this sectionInstaForex course for beginnersPopular AnalyticsOpen trading accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD Technical Analysis – A look at the chart ahead of the Canadian jobs data

May 10, 2024 | 03:02 am

The USD weakened across the board yesterday following a notable miss in the US initial claims data as that added some more pressure on the USD with the market weighing the possibility that the labour market could weaken fast enough in the next months to justify more rate cuts than expected. Overall though, the price action has been rangebound this week as the lack of key catalysts and the waiting for the US CPI report kept the market at bay.The CAD, on the other hand, has been under pressure in the first part of the week maybe due to the sustained weakness in crude oil prices and expectations building for the BoC to cut rates in June, although the employment data today and the Canadian CPI report on May 21st will likely decide if the BoC will wait until July or proceed with a cut already in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD bounced from the key support zone around the 1.36 handle where we can also find the confluence with the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below that support should see the sellers gaining more conviction and increasing the bearish momentum into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, keep on stepping in around these levels to position for a rally back into the cycle highs around the 1.39 handle. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the upward trendline got breached recently with the sellers piling in to extend the drop into the 1.36 support. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 1.37 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the 1.3785 level. The red lines marked on the chart define the average daily range of the pair, which is generally the maximum movement we can get on any given day barring major surprises in the market.Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the Canadian labour market report and the US University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. Weak figures across the board for the Canadian jobs data should raise the probabilities for a rate cut in June, although there’s not much more to price in. In fact, the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next Wednesday as that will likely have a much bigger and lasting impact on the pair. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Continues to See Upward Pressure - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 03:00 am

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as we have seen the weekly Unemployment Claims in the United States surprise to the upside.

Hang Seng Index: Oversold-led positive animal spirits overshadowed currency war risk

May 10, 2024 | 02:37 am

The Hang Seng Index has transformed into a medium-term uptrend phase with key support at 17,110. Momentum factor is now taking a front seat over fundamentals such as the deflationary risk spiral. A softer than-expected China CPI and PPI prints for April may further erode consumer confidence. A yuan devaluation cannot be ruled out to […]

Canadian dollar quiet ahead of jobs data

May 10, 2024 | 02:25 am

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday. USD/CAD is up 0.03%, trading at 1.3680 in the European session at the time of writing. Canada’s job growth expected to rebound Canada releases the April employment report later today. The economy shed 2200 jobs in March, a shocking figure as the market forecast stood at a […]

Silver Forex Signal: Continues to See Upward Pressure - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:15 am

Silver rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Thursday, breaking above the $27.50 level at one point, only before it turned around to show signs of exhaustion.

Dax Forecast: Powers Higher to Reach New Highs - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:10 am

The DAX in Germany took off to the upside during the trading session on Thursday as we have now broken above the crucial €18,500 level.

USDJPY Technical Analysis – The bullish bias remains intact

May 10, 2024 | 02:06 am

The USD weakened across the board yesterday following a notable miss in the US initial claims data as that added some more pressure on the USD with the market weighing the possibility that the labour market could weaken fast enough in the next months to justify more rate cuts than expected. Overall though, the price action has been rangebound this week as the lack of key catalysts and the waiting for the US CPI report kept the market at bay.The JPY, on the other hand, doesn’t have much fundamental support as the BoJ might not be able to lift interest rates again given the easing inflation rates, although there might be some short-term support from hawkish messages around the reduction of the QE programme. All else being equal, the USDJPY pair should remain in an uptrend both from the Fed’s higher for longer stance and global growth expectations. The only thing that can change the trend at the moment is much weaker US data.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY continues to run to the upside as the lack of fundamental support and the failure of the Japanese interventions is giving the buyers enough conviction to keep bidding the pair towards the key 160.00 level. That’s where we will likely see the sellers stepping in with more conviction to position for a drop back into the trendline. For the time being, the buyers remain in control.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the next resistance to watch will be the 156.28 level as a break to the upside should see the buyers increasing the bullish momentum into the next resistance around the 158.00 handle. The target remains the 160.00 handle and unless we get a downside surprise in the US inflation figures next week, we will likely see the pair continuing to drift higher. Upcoming CatalystsToday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, so the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next Wednesday.See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Forecast: British Pound Continues to Rally Against Yen Despite Bank of England - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:05 am

The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Thursday against the Japanese yen but has since turned around despite the fact that there are members at the Bank of England that have voted to cut rates.

USD/ILS Forecast: Greenback Climbs Against Israeli Shekel - 10 May 2024

May 10, 2024 | 02:00 am

The US dollar has rallied slightly during the trading session on Thursday against the Israeli shekel, as the overall action over the last couple of months have suggested a bit of a “bullish flag” setting up.

British pound listless despite strong GDP

May 10, 2024 | 01:18 am

The British pound is drifting on Friday. GBP/USD is up 0.05%, trading at 1.2531 in the European session at the time of writing. UK GDP rises 0.6% The British economy grew by 0.6% q/q in the first quarter, higher than the market estimate of 0.4% and above the Q4 2023 decline of 0.3%. This marks […]

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 10

May 10, 2024 | 00:40 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 155.79 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the USD/JPY pair dropped more than 30 pips. Yesterday, traders ignored Japan's data on average earnings and leading economic indicators, but US data exerted slight pressure on the pair, so the dollar fell during the US session. Today's decent figures on household spending in Japan, value of loans, and the current account surplus maintained balance in the market. However, yesterday's decline had already been bought up, suggesting further development of the upward trend in the medium term. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point at 155.79 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 156.26 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 156.26, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today in continuation of the upward trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.55 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.79 and 156.26.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 155.55 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 155.14, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return in case the price fails to settle near today's high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 155.79 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.55 and 155.14.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 10

May 10, 2024 | 00:40 am

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0742 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the EUR/USD pair rose by more than 30 pips. The absence of data and the Bank of England's decisions helped the euro rise in the second half of the day; however, the pair continued to trade within the range of a sideways channel, which could affect today's volatility. In the morning, we can only mention Italy's industrial production report and the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting, which means that the pair can still rise. But it is best to continue trading within the boundaries of the sideways channel, adhering to the necessary scenarios. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0787 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0816. At the level of 1.0816, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after very good data on Italy and soft minutes of the ECB meeting. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0772 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0787 and 1.0816.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0772 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0745, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate near the daily high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0787 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0772 and 1.0745.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on May 10

May 10, 2024 | 00:40 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2467 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark after the Bank of England announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged, which confirmed the entry point to sell the pound. After the GBP/USD pair fell by 18 pips, it moved upwards. Mid-day, the price test of 1.2492 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator moved up from the zero mark. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey softened his stance, allowing traders to expect a summer interest rate cut. This is good for the economy, to which the pound reacted accordingly. Today, we will highlight UK reports on GDP, industrial production, and manufacturing output. Good indicators are a reason to continue buying the pound in line with yesterday's upward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point at 1.2553 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2594 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2594, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today, but only if the UK releases a good GDP report. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2512 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2553 and 1.2594.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2512 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2463, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2553 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2512 and 1.2463.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:49 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0742; (P) 1.0764; (R1) 1.0803; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0741) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2471; (P) 1.2499; (R1) 1.2552; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point, as it recovered after dipping to 1.2445. Strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:42 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9042; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9087; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point, and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9091) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9004) will bring […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:40 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.12; (P) 155.54; (R1) 155.91; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

May 9, 2024 | 23:32 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6583; (P) 0.6603; (R1) 0.6639; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6570) holds. Above 0.6645 will resume the rebound from 0.6361. On the downside, however, firm break of 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:28 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3651; (P) 1.3699; (R1) 1.3723; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.3782 resistance will argue that correction from 1.3845 has completed with three waves down to 1.3608. Intraday bias will be back to the upside to resume larger rally from 1.3176 through 1.3845. […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:26 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9754; (P) 0.9764; (R1) 0.9778; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.9835 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 0.9847. Risk will stay on the downside as 0.9835 resistance holds. Below 0.9278 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9563 […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:23 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 167.00; (P) 167.38; (R1) 168.01; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays on the upside for the moment. Rebound from 164.01 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 171.58. Further rise would be seen to 168.64 resistance. On the downside, below 165.63 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:21 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 194.08; (P) 194.48; (R1) 195.11; More.. GBP/JPY’s rebound from 191.34 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. This rebound is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern. Further rise would be seen back to 197.40 resistance. On the downside, however, break of 193.82 minor support will […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 23:17 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6260; (P) 1.6307; (R1) 1.6335; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. Further decline is expected as long as 1.6494 resistance holds. Fall from 1.6742 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.7062. Break of 1.6216 will turn bias back to the downside to 1.6127 […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 22:34 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8593; (P) 0.8607; (R1) 0.8623; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays mildly on the upside at this point, and further rally could be seen to 0.8643 resistance. Firm break there will resume the choppy rebound from 0.8497 low. On the downside, below 0.8585 minor support will argue that rebound from 0.8529 has […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on May 10

May 9, 2024 | 22:31 pm

EUR/USDHigher TimeframesThe bulls managed to enter the positive territory beyond the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.0750 - 1.0736). They also succeeded in testing the next cluster of resistance levels at 1.0795 - 1.0808 - 1.0817, which brought together representatives of all the higher timeframes. As a result, a daily consolidation was formed. While the market takes a break, uncertainty looms. Losing support levels (1.0750-36) under current conditions could lead to entering the bearish territory, relative to the weekly cloud, which may help in fueling the bearish bias. Traders may consider new bullish prospects if the price breaks above the 1.0795-1.0808-17 area, followed by the daily cloud (1.0827-39).H4 – H1The bulls have the advantage on the lower timeframes. Today, the bullish targets can be found at 1.0803 - 1.0824 - 1.0863 (classic Pivot levels). If the current corrective decline manages to push the price below the key levels, which are currently converging around 1.0760 - 1.0764 (weekly long-term trend + central Pivot level of the day), the current balance of power may shift in favor of the bears. To strengthen this sentiment, bears may use the support of classic Pivot levels within the day, which are currently at 1.0743 - 1.0704 - 1.0683 (support of classic Pivot levels).***GBP/USDHigher TimeframesAfter the bulls interacted with several weekly resistance levels (1.2633 – 1.2580 – 1.2553), it signaled a rebound on the daily timeframe, but buyers were unable to continue the decline due to a significant accumulation of support levels from various timeframes around 1.2472 – 1.2479. A breakthrough will strengthen the bulls. Failure to overcome the support levels will form a consolidation and strengthen opposing sentiments, and as a result, the bulls may return to the resistance levels that were tested (1.2633 – 1.2580 – 1.2553) with the goal of breaking through them and further developing their advantages.H4 – H1The corrective rise on the lower timeframes brought the pair to the resistance of the weekly long-term trend (1.2526). The weekly trend is the most important level on the lower timeframes, which makes it possible to determine who has the main advantage and who is responsible for the current balance of power. The bears will maintain the main advantage if the price moves below the trend. Vice versa, the bulls will have the advantage if the pair trades above the trend. In addition, reference points during the development of the movement are the classic Pivot levels. Today, the support levels are located around 1.2468 – 1.2416 – 1.2388, and resistances can be found at the levels of 1.2548 – 1.2576 – 1.2628.***The technical analysis of the situation uses:Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levelsLower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on May 10. Simple tips for beginners

May 9, 2024 | 22:18 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD resumed its upward movement on Thursday and once again it was near the upper boundary of the channel. Thus, the bullish correction persists. Yesterday, the euro could have strengthened due to the Bank of England meeting, as there was no other news during the day. However, we don't consider this a hawkish meeting. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey discussed the prospects of monetary policy easing, and this time two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate cut. Therefore, it would have been more logical to see the pound fall, followed by the euro. But in reality, we saw another illogical rise, and the pound pulled the euro with it.In addition, it's worth taking note of the US unemployment claims report, which showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased more than expected. This report is not crucial, but it could have "hit" the dollar on Thursday.EUR/USD on 5M chart On the 5-minute timeframe, a good buy signal was formed around the area of 1.0725-1.0733, but it was quite difficult to catch it in time. The price moved away from this area exactly at the moment when the results of the BoE's meeting were announced, so the pair rapidly began to rise. However, it was still possible to open a trade in time. By the end of the day, the price hit the nearest target level at 1.0785. The profit amounted to about 30 pips.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD pair continues to go through a corrective phase. We believe that the decline should resume in the medium term, as the euro remains expensive, and in general, the global trend is pointing downwards. The fundamental background still supports the US dollar, and the recent FOMC meeting proved this - now Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doesn't even know when monetary policy easing will begin.On Friday, we advise novice traders to closely monitor the area between 1.0785-1.0797. Traders may consider selling the pair if the price rebounds from this area, after that they can aim for 1.0725-1.0733. A breakthrough will allow traders to consider buying with 1.0838-1.0856 as the target.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725-1.0733, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. Today, there are no important events scheduled in the European Union, and the US docket will only feature the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Therefore, the pair may show weak movements, close to a flat.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on May 10. Simple tips for beginners

May 9, 2024 | 22:18 pm

Analyzing Thursday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Thursday, although the pound had more reasons to fall. The Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged, but BoE Governor Andrew Bailey did not rule out a rate cut in June. Bailey also suggested a higher likelihood of a later start to monetary policy easing, but inflation in the UK is decreasing, allowing the central bank to start discussing rate cuts. It is also worth highlighting the fact that two members of the MPC voted in favor of lowering rates. In our opinion, these are bearish factors for the British currency, which shows that the pound had no grounds to rise on Thursday. However, the British currency has often exhibited illogical movements over the past six months. Everyone has already become accustomed to this.GBP/USD on 5M chart On the 5-minute timeframe, a decent buy signal was formed near the level of 1.2457. The results of the BoE meeting were "moderately dovish," so it was difficult to expect the pair to rise. Nevertheless, those who executed this signal could earn about 50 pips, as the pair continued to trade higher for the rest of the day. In addition, two buy signals were formed around the level of 1.2502.Trading tips on Friday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but the correction persists. The fundamental backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. The BoE showed a firm dovish stance on Thursday, and yet the pound continued to rise.Today, we expect the pound to fall if we are looking at logical movements. However, the UK will release an important report, and if its results exceed forecasts, this could boost the pound.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2541-1.2547, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. On Friday, the UK will release reports on quarterly GDP and industrial production. Any note of optimism could translate into a new rise in the pound. The US docket will only feature the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Unemployment rate. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), March unemployment data is due in Turkey. This indicator records all persons aged 15 years and older who were not employed during the reporting period, who used at least one of the job search channels in the last three months, as well as citizens who are already employed or have become self-employed but are awaiting the registration of necessary documents. It may grow from 8.7%, putting pressure on the lira. Read more

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for May 10-13, 2024: buy above $2,334 (21 SMA - rebound)

May 9, 2024 | 21:38 pm

Gold is trading around 2,352.9, above the symmetrical triangle that was broken and with a strong bullish trend originated after breaking the symmetrical triangle pattern. Yesterday in our analysis, we observed that gold had been under strong consolidation for several days straight.Yesterday during the American session, gold made a sharp break above 2,315 (21 SMA). Now we can see that there is a strong bullish perspective that could enable the metal to reach 2,375 and the price could even cover the GAP that left on April 18 around 2,392.For the next few hours, we believe that there could be a technical correction in gold and it could be seen as an opportunity to resume buying orders. As a result of a drop as part of profit-taking, the instrument is expected to reach the support of 2,334. If it proves strong, it will allow traders to buy with targets at 2,360 and 2,375.On the other hand, if the technical correction enables the price to reach SMA 21 located at 2,322 and if gold consolidates above this area, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy. On the contrary, a fall below 2,320 could change the positive outlook for gold and we could expect a bearish consolidation that could push the price down to 2,250 in the short term.The eagle indicator is giving a positive signal. So, we believe that in the coming days, gold will continue to rise. Therefore, any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to buy.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Manufacturing production. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on manufacturing output from the UK National Statistical Office (ONS) is due – one of the main indicators reflecting the state of the sector. It may change from 1.2% to −0.5% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.1% YoY, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Industrial production. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production is due in the UK. The indicator records changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 1.4% to 0.6% YoY and from 1.1% to –0.5% MoM. Read more

Trade balance. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in the UK. This indicator reflects the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. It may change from –14.21B pounds to –14.50B pounds, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Gross domestic product. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), Q1 data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) is due – the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, taking into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may consolidate at 0.1% MoM and increase from −0.3% to 0.4% QoQ. Read more

Forecast for AUD/USD on May 10, 2024

May 9, 2024 | 20:09 pm

AUD/USDOn the daily chart, the Australian dollar appears to be in a strong upward position, as it is staying above both indicator lines while Marlin is in the positive area. But at the same time, the price is also approaching a powerful resistance level, which it has failed to overcome more than five times since the beginning of the year.Now, on the fundamental side, the price has a very low chance of consolidating above 0.6627 in the last five months. And the Marlin oscillator is getting weaker. We believe that the price will return to the support of the MACD line (0.6545) and will try to retest the targets of 0.6480 and 0.6410.A good signal for this endeavor is when the aussie overcomes the MACD line on the 4-hour chart, the level of 0.6589, coinciding with the April 29 high. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is close to the border of the downtrend territory and is ready to pull the price behind it. We are awaiting further developments.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on May 10, 2024

May 9, 2024 | 20:09 pm

GBP/USDThe Bank of England meeting showed that two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of a rate cut. We expected the exact distribution of votes (2-7), but the general market forecast suggested no more than 1 vote for a rate cut. The pound's initial reaction was to fall and lose more than 40 pips, as it was bought back while counter-dollar currencies and stock markets broadly strengthened. As a result, the quote reached the target resistance of 1.2525.If the price can overcome this resistance, it will face many strong intermediate resistance levels on the way to the target level of 1.2596, which can only be fought with full support from related markets and fundamental factors.Today, the UK will release important data: Q1 GDP with a forecast of 0.4%, industrial production for March with a forecast of -0.5%, trade balance for March with a forecast of -£14.5 billion vs -£14.2 billion in February. The forecasts are mixed, so market participants will wait for incoming data and correlate it with the general market sentiment. We expect the pound to weaken.On the 4-hour chart, the price is stuck in the indicator lines coinciding with the target resistance at 1.2525. The Marlin oscillator is moving sideways just above the zero line. We are waiting for a price reversal and the pound to climb to the support at 1.2465. If the price does consolidate above 1.2525, we will refrain from rushing to extend the outlook to 1.2596, since a similar drop from April 30 may follow.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on May 10, 2024

May 9, 2024 | 20:09 pm

EUR/USDYesterday's rather soft Bank of England meeting, where two members of the Committee spoke in favor of a rate cut, could not overcome the general risk sentiment set by the stock market - the S&P 500 rose by 0.51%, the dollar index fell by 0.29%, the euro rose by 33 pips.This morning, the price climbed above the balance indicator line on the daily chart, so it has a chance to work off the key resistance at 1.0796 (February 29 low). The MACD line is close to this level, so consolidating above it will allow the euro to reveal an alternative plan so it can rise to the target level of 1.0905. Also, the level of 1.0796 coincides with 50% of the corrective move from March 8-April 16. The main scenario assumes a price reversal, moving away from 1.0724 and heading towards the target range of 1.0636/56.On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading in the range of 1.0724/96, above the balance and MACD indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has entered the positive area, but it seems to have plans to move back into the downtrend territory. The price will encounter one more support on the way to another support level at 1.0724 - the MACD indicator line, so the way to this support may take around 2-3 days.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Testing Support Against Swiss Franc - 10 May 2024

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The pound initially shot higher during the early hours on Thursday but has since fallen to test the 50 day EMA.

USD/ZAR Forecast: USD Looking for Momentum from Support Level Against Rand - 10 May 2024

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The US dollar initially tried to rally a bit during the early hours on Thursday, but then pulled back to reach the 18.50 level.

BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Continues to Drift Toward Support - 10 May 2024

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Bitcoin pulled back just a little bit during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to look at the $60,000 level as a potential support level.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: NASDAQ 100 Continues to Grind Sideways - 10 May 2024

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The Nasdaq 100 pulled back slightly during the early hours on Thursday, but at this point in time, it looks like a market that's just trying to digest some of the massive gains that we had seen so far.

Gold Forecast: Gold Continues to Look for Buyers in a Support Range - 10 May 2024

May 9, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Gold has been somewhat choppy during the early hours on Thursday, which quite frankly is a repeat of the last several days in a row.

Outlook for GBP/USD on May 10. The British pound failed. Or it simply refused

May 9, 2024 | 17:58 pm

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M On Thursday, GBP/USD didn't even try to continue its downward movement. It seems that the market believes that it was enough for them to trade bearish for two days, and that it was inappropriate to open short positions based on mixed information from the Bank of England. In our opinion, everything about the BoE meeting was quite straightforward. Inflation in the UK is slowing down, the economy is stagnant, the central bank sent a signal that it is ready to move towards monetary policy easing in 2024, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey did not rule out a rate cut even at the next meeting, and two Monetary Policy Committee members voted for a rate cut. How much more dovish does the results need to be for the market to start selling the pound? Or did any market participants expect the central bank to start cutting rates in May with inflation above 3%? They waited, and then they were disappointed.In our opinion, the pound had no grounds to rise. Of course, this is not the pound's fault, as the market dictates the course, not the other way around. However, once again, the pair failed to overcome the range of 1.2429-1.2445, one of the areas that has been significantly hindering the pound's progress in either direction. At the same time, it's hard to tell what trend has emerged in the market right now. The pair is between the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, has left the ascending channel, but couldn't stay below the nearest support (1.2429-1.2445). Perhaps, a flat once again?However, the trading signals were quite good. As soon as the pound started moving, good signals were formed immediately. First, the pair bounced off the level of 1.2445, an accurate move. Then it tested the level of 1.2512. Therefore, one could earn about 50 pips on this trade alone.COT report: COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders often changes in recent years. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly intersect and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 4,800 buy contracts and 2,000 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by another 2,800 contracts in a week. Sellers continue to hold their ground. The fundamental background still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases of the pound sterling, and the currency finally has a real chance to resume the global downward trend. The trend line on the 24-hour TF clearly shows this. Almost all of the factors point to the pound's decline.The non-commercial group currently has a total of 43,700 buy contracts and 72,700 sell contracts. Now the bears are in control and the pound has a huge potential to fall. We can only hope that inflation in the UK does not accelerate, or that the Bank of England will not intervene.Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, GBP/USD continues to go through a bullish correction, which could turn into anything. Since the price could not overcome the area of 1.2605-1.2620, there are hopes of bringing back the downward trend in the medium-term. However, yesterday the pound also failed to break through the area of 1.2429-1.2445, so this postponed the downward movement. Everything is pointing towards a new flat.As of May 10, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2481) and the Kijun-sen (1.2538) lines can also serve as sources of signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.On Friday, the UK will release important reports on GDP and industrial production. However, yesterday, we already saw how the market reacts to incoming information. To be brief, it's absolutely illogical. The BoE's meeting was the least hawkish of all possible outcomes, yet the British pound inexplicably rose again. Therefore, today, the pair has a low chance of falling below the area of 1.2429-1.2445.Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for EUR/USD on May 10. The euro went up for no reason

May 9, 2024 | 17:57 pm

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M EUR/USD edged up on Thursday. The chart may suggest that the upward movement was strong; however, in reality, the pair has moved no more than 60 pips over the past day. The price is still trading within the ascending channel, so the upward trend, which has been ongoing for three weeks now, persists. Take note that the current rise is part of a correction against a significant decline, and this correction seems to have no end in sight. Sometimes there are reasons for this, as the latest US data disappointed the dollar bulls. But sometimes (like yesterday), the euro had no reason to rise.The only event was the Bank of England meeting, which has a somewhat indirect relationship to the euro. However, let's assume that the euro has a strong connection to the pound, so the single currency also reacted to the results of this meeting. But the euro and the pound should have only strengthened if the central bank signaled hawkish decisions and statements, which is not the case. On the contrary, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said that inflation is decreasing as planned and that the BoE could lower the key rate as early as June. He only raised the prospect of a June rate cut, but at least this was part of the discussion, not keeping rates at their peak due to high inflation. We believe that the market should have been selling the pound and, consequently, the euro.The pair generated good signals on Thursday. First, a sell signal was formed near the critical line, which brought traders about 10 pips of profit, as the position needed to be manually closed before the BoE meeting. Then, the pair surpassed the level of 1.0757, so traders could open long positions. If they closed them in the evening, they gained another 10 pips of profit. It's not much, but it's better than nothing.COT report: The latest COT report is dated April 30. The net position of non-commercial traders has been bullish for quite some time, but now the situation has finally changed. The net position of non-commercial traders (red line) has been decreasing in recent months, while that of commercial traders (blue line) has been increasing. This shows that market sentiment is turning bearish, as speculators increasingly sell the euro. Currently, their positions coincide in terms of volume. We don't see any fundamental factors that can support the euro's strength, while technical analysis also suggests a downtrend. Three descending trend lines on the weekly chart indicate that there's a good chance of sustaining the decline.The red and blue lines have crossed, and now bears may have a significant advantage. So we strongly believe that the euro will fall further. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group decreased by 100, while the number of short positions decreased by 3,200. Accordingly, the net position increased by 3,100. Overall, both the euro and the net position continue to decline. The number of buy contracts is now lower than the number of sell contracts among non-commercial traders by 7,000.Analysis of EUR/USD 1H On the 1-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has been going through a weak bullish correction against a global downward trend for three weeks now. Since expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2024 have significantly decreased, the US currency should rise in the medium term. We still expect the price to consolidate below the ascending channel, and after that traders may consider selling again. Targets in the area of 1.00-1.04 remain relevant.On May 10, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0530, 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0836, 1.0886, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0734) and Kijun-sen (1.0770) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 15 pips. This will protect you against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.On Friday, the euro area economic calendar is basically empty, while the US docket will feature a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. It may provoke a market reaction, as there are no other news and events at the moment. However, we are unlikely to see strong movements and high volatility today.Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The US dollar stumbled again

May 9, 2024 | 15:51 pm

The European and British currencies simultaneously began to rise on Thursday. At the time of writing this review, we didn't see a sharp growth, and I don't see any reason for the market to buy the pound and, even more so, the euro. The Bank of England meeting just ended, and the central bank sent a signal that it was closing in on interest rate cuts. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey did not even deny that the interest rate could be lowered at the next meeting in June. If this is indeed the case, then the European Central Bank and the BoE will start lowering rates synchronously. But no one knows when the Federal Reserve will start to ease its own monetary policy.In fact, I would like to express it in a slightly different manner. At the moment, not only does no one know when the FOMC will begin to ease policy. There is uncertainty if it will even happen during the fall of 2024. Personally, I believe that we should not expect the first round of rate cuts until winter. From this, it follows that the ECB and the BoE will not only be the first to start easing financial conditions, but they will do so much earlier than the US central bank. In my opinion, this is an excellent basis to sell the euro and pound. However, it seems that the market did not fully understand what Bailey meant. Or perhaps we just saw the initial market reaction, and the euro and the pound will eventually decline. The euro could fall. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0788 level showed that the internal corrective wave was formed. As for the pound, it has an important level at 1.2470, which prevents it from falling. Therefore, the euro has a much better chance of falling further.But let's return to the BoE meeting. Bailey did not provide any time frames for when the rate could be lowered. He stated that it could be June, or it could be much later. He hints that the BoE may lower the rate once and then observe inflation for some time to avoid affecting its slowdown. He also said that central bank policy is not just about predicting the timing of the next rate cut. I consider Bailey's rhetoric to be dovish, as we hardly hear him speak about rate cuts. I will also mention that two BoE policymakers voted for a rate cut.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0462 mark, as the news background supports the dollar. A successful attempt to break 1.0787, which is equal to 76.4% Fibonacci, will indicate that the market is ready for new short positions. Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c has started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2625, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, indicates the completion of an internal, corrective wave 3 or c, but 1.2470 is still holding back the sellers from attacking, preventing the British from building a downward wave.Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The euro got away with it

May 9, 2024 | 15:50 pm

Between order and chaos. This is how one can characterize the current behavior of the currency market. On the one hand, it correctly reacts to different rates of economic growth and inflation, as well as to the monetary policies of central banks. On the other hand, unexpected events, including geopolitics and the US presidential elections, can create confusion in the Forex market. However, for now, the EUR/USD reacts to the readiness of European central banks to pursue monetary easing faster than the Federal Reserve does.The Riksbank's rate cut brought investors back in March. At that time, the Swiss National Bank was the first among the G10 to weaken its monetary policy and damage the franc. In May, the same thing happened with the Swedish krona, and then the British pound. Moreover, the Bank of England did not need to significantly reduce its rate. It was enough just to hint at a rate cut in the coming months. And that's what BoE Governor Andrew Bailey did.The dynamics of inflation in the US and EuropeBailey emphasized progress in tackling high prices and he sent a clear signal that the BoE may lower rates more quickly than markets expect. Its start in June is by no means excluded, and the BoE expects inflation to reach the 2% target in the second quarter. This is not the end of the number of dovish signals from the central bank. Two MPC members have already voted to lower the rate compared to just one member back in March. The rest have decided to leave the borrowing cost unchanged for now, but who knows how their opinion will change in June?The SNB, Riksbank, BoE, as well as Hungary and the Czech Republic, which have already lowered rates, represent Europe. The fact that this time Europe decided not to wait for the Fed and began to weaken its monetary policy first puts pressure on all the currencies of the bloc. And the euro is no exception.According to Credit Agricole, after a brief consolidation period, the USD index will resume its upward trend, driven by strong economic fundamentals in the US. European economies look significantly weaker, the risks of a rapid decline in inflation to the 2% target are higher in the Eurozone than in the US due to less strong domestic demand.Such a strategy has the right to exist. Investors have realized that one report on the slowdown in the US labor market in April is not enough for the Fed to make decisions on reducing its rate. The central bank will need new data, and this means bringing back the downward trajectory of inflation. So far this has not happened, the US dollar's position looks stable. However, the euro will still face some challenges.Technically, on the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair may return above the upper boundary of the fair value range of 1.062-1.0745. The fact that bears can't stay in this mark indicates their weakness and this provides an opportunity to increase long positions formed on the rebound to the upward movement.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Long list of oil support: risk on, technical, inventory, Mid East, China, restocking

May 9, 2024 | 15:14 pm

A note from ANZ outlines a number of factors supporting the price, which inched a little higher on Thursday:risk on tonetechnicals100-day moving average helped stem the flow of selling in WTI, nine-day relative strength index also showing the recent selloff was overdonesentiment buoyed by this week’s US inventory report, stockpiles fell according to EIA dataongoing tensions in the Middle EastChina’s crude oil imports rose 5.5% y/y on strong gains in road and air trafficRestocking ahead of the northern summer driving season and increased export quota for oil products I stuck those indies on the chart, you can do the same here: This chart is from our charting app, which is free and can be found at this link This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Household expenditure. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), March data on household spending is due in Japan. The indicator records the monthly change in household spending adjusted for inflation and is an important indicator of economic growth. It may correct from –0.5% to –2.3% YoY and from 1.4% to –0.3% MoM, putting pressure on the yen. Read more

GBPUSD stretches to a new high but running into 100/200 hour MA and retracement

May 9, 2024 | 11:04 am

The GBPUSD has once again stretched higher after a brief correction and printed a new high at 1.25232, but once again is finding risk-focused sellers against the 100/200 hour MAs and the 38.2% of the move down from the March 2024 high. Those levels come near 1.25255. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds rates

May 9, 2024 | 08:35 am

The British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. Bank of England maintains rate at 5.25% The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The […]

AUDUSD and NZDUSD run higher w/the lower dollar. Pairs moving toward the next targets.

May 9, 2024 | 08:11 am

Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD are moving higher on the general USD selling after the weaker than expected initial jobless claims.For the AUDUSD, that move has taken the price away from its 100-day moving average at 0.6574, and toward its 50% midpoint of the move down from the end of December high to the April low. That midpoint level comes in at 0.66159. Above that is a key swing area ceiling between 0.6635 and 0.6648. That ceiling area has held resistance since March 12. Needless to say, it represents a key area on more upside momentum for the AUDUSD.For the NZDUSD, it's run to the upside started after basing today at the 38.2% retracement of the last move down from the March double top. That retracement level came in at 0.59905. The NZDUSD is now moving toward its next key swing area between 0.6023 and 0.6037. Within that area is the 50% midpoint of the same move lower (from the large high) and the 200-day moving average. Getting above that area and staying above, would open the door for further upside potential for the pair.In the video above I take a look at both these currency pairs and outline those key levels in play and the roadmap ahead for traders. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZ dollar rises ahead of Manufacturing PMI

May 9, 2024 | 07:52 am

The New Zealand dollar has made gains on Thursday. NZD/USD is up 0.33% on the day, trading at 0.6024 in the North American session at the time of writing. New Zealand manufacturing has been in the doldrums and the April manufacturing PMI, which will be released on Friday, is expected to show contraction, with a […]

EURUSD runs higher. USD move to the downside continues

May 9, 2024 | 07:41 am

The USD is coming under increasing pressure. The US initial jobless claims came in weaker and that started the decline. For the EURUSD, it is moving above a technical area defined by a swing area between 1.0752 and 1.0756 (see chart above). The price is also running away from its 100-hour moving average at 1.07579. The high price has just reached 1.07796.The next key target area comes against the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March high. That level comes in at 1.07906. Just above that level is the 200-day moving average at 1.0792. Getting above those levels - and staying above - would shift the buyers more to the upside. On the unemployment date last week, the price did move above those levels only to rotate back below shortly thereafter. Hence, the importance of the level going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD moves to a new low and trades below cluster of MAs

May 9, 2024 | 07:24 am

The USDCAD is breaking below a cluster of MAs including the 100 and 200-hour moving averages and the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. Those levels come between 1.3700 and 1.37102. If the price, stays below those MAs, the bias shifts more to the sellers at least in the short term for the pair. Overall, the last 14 or so days has seen the price trade within a 1.3615 to 1.3782 range. The ups and downs (see chart below) has converged the MAs in the center of that range. As a result, it represents the barometer for bullish above, and bearish below.See the video above for the details of the technical roadmap for the USDCAD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0736; (P) 1.0747; (R1) 1.0759; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0733) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:34 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.76; (P) 155.22; (R1) 155.96; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as this point. Rebound from 151.86 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20 high. Further rise would be seen to 157.98 resistance. On the downside, below 154.23 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9071; (P) 0.9083; (R1) 0.9093; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.9096) holds. On the downside, break of 0.9005 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 0.9000) will bring deeper fall to […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 9 w/a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 9, 2024 | 06:21 am

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged but the vote of 7-2 with two dissenters for interest rate cuts and Gov. Bailey's assertion that the market may be under pricing the end of year rate cut projection initially sent the GBPUSD lower, however failure to extend to the downside led to shorts covering in volatile trading. What next?IN this Kickstart video, I take a look at the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What levels are in play for those currency pairs given the early up and down (or down and up) volatility. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

May 9, 2024 | 06:04 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2468; (P) 1.2497; (R1) 1.2525; More… GBP/USD breached 1.2471 support briefly but quickly recovered. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong bounce from current level will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 1.2633 will resume the rebound from 1.2298 to 1.2708 resistance next. However, firm break of firm break of 1.2471 will […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

The USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 9, 2024 | 05:03 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the GBP is the weakest (snapshot before the BOE press conference). The GBP is the weakest after the Bank of England (BoE) opted to maintain the Bank Rate at 5.25%, but with a less expected 7-2 vote outcome, as Ramsden joined Dhingra in advocating for a 25 basis point cut. This decision underscores the BoE's repeated guidance that monetary policy should remain restrictive for a considerable duration to avert the risk of inflation exceeding the 2% target, but with a dovish tilt. BoE Governor Bailey comments acknowledged the positive developments regarding inflation but indicated that further evidence of sustained low inflation is required before considering a rate reduction. He remains optimistic about the potential for future cuts. The BoE's stance will continue to be restrictive, even with a potential rate cut, as they closely monitor economic indicators. Although current data show progress, the bank believes it is premature to reduce interest rates and awaits more conclusive proof that inflation rates will remain low. The BoE also noted an increasing divergence in economic demand between the US and Europe, which could lead to divergent monetary policies, potentially impacting foreign exchange markets.Inflation and growth forecasts showed lower inflation projections with higher growth. INFLATION FORECASTS:2024: 2.50%, previously 2.75%2025: 2.25%, previously 2.50%2026: 1.50%, previously 2.00%GROWTH FORECASTS:2024: 0.5%, previously 0.25%2025: 1.0%, previously 0.75%2026: 1.25%, previously 1.0%In the early comments from BOEs Bailey in his press conferenc, he says that the BOE may need to cut rates more than what the market currently perceives. He adds:Rate Cuts Possibility: Bailey indicates that it might be necessary to cut rates more significantly than what is currently expected by market rates, though there are no preconceived plans about the extent and speed of these cuts.Future Rate Cuts: He suggests that it is likely that the Bank Rate will be reduced over the coming quarters.Economic Effects on Wages and Prices: Bailey expects the secondary effects on domestic wages and prices to diminish slightly faster than previously thought.Uncertainty About June Rate Change: He mentions that a change in the Bank Rate in June is neither completely dismissed nor certain.Inflation and Wages Caution: Recent data showing higher than expected wage and services inflation since February should prompt careful consideration, although these should not be overly interpreted.Normalization of Economic Conditions: The lack of surprising data is seen as an indicator that the economy is moving towards more normal conditions.The market were projecting -55 bps in cuts by the end of the year. Will that move toward 3 cuts?In geopolitical news, Hamas delegation has left Cairo and insists on the peace proposal that Israel rejected. The weekly US initial jobless claims will be released at 8:30 AM ET with expectations of 215K versus 208K last week. Continuing claims are expected at 1.785M vs 1.774M estimate.At 1 PM, the coupon auction for the week will conclude with the sale of 30-year bonds. Both the 3 and 10-year issues were met with close to average results for the major auction components - not bad, not great as borrowing needs increase with deficits. A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.61 or 0.78% at $79.61. At this time yesterday, the price was at $77.56 Gold is trading up $7.32 or 0.32% at $2315.90. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2313.58Silver is trading up $0.38 or 1.41% at $27.71. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.22.Bitcoin currently trades at $61,120. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,357In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower after mixed results yesterday:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -77 points. Yesterday, the index rose 172.13 points or 0.44%S&P futures are implying a decline of -10.92 points yesterday, the S&P index closed unchanged at 5187.66Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -39.76 points. Yesterday the index fell -29.80 points or -0.18% at 16302.76.European stock indices are trading mixed. German and UK indices are on pace to close at a record level:German DAX, +0.64%France CAC , +0.18%UK FTSE 100, +0.37%Spain's Ibex, -1.01%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.06% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed/higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, -0.34%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.83%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +1.22%Australia S&P/ASX index, -1.06%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher. Today the U.S. Treasury will auction off 30-year notes. Earlier this week, the 3- year note 10-year notes were auctioned with average (10 year) to slightly better than average (3-year) demand. 2-year yield 4.844%, +0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.842%5-year yield 4.518%, +1.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.497%10-year yield 4.514%, +2.9 basis point. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.487%30-year yield 4.670%, +3.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.6 to 8%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -33.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -35.5 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -17.3 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -21.4 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 15:15 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech. Investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more

Japanese yen lower after BoJ minutes

May 9, 2024 | 04:12 am

The Japanese yen has posted a three-day slide and is in negative territory on Thursday. USD/JPY has risen 0.26% on the day and is trading at 155.93 at the time of writing. Is the BoJ turning hawkish? The Bank of Japan released its Summary of Opinions from its April 26th meeting earlier today. The meeting […]

USD/TRY Forecast: S&P publishes its expectations for the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar during 2024.

May 9, 2024 | 03:56 am

Trading of the US dollar against the Turkish lira varied during Thursday's session.

Initial jobless claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present data on the number of initial unemployment claims. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for the first time during the past week. Statistics are collected by the National Ministry of Labor and published in a weekly report. The number of benefit claims is used to measure the health of the employment sector, as an increase in the number means that fewer people are hired. It may change from 208.0K to 211.0K. Read more

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Dead cat bounce or the start of a rally?

May 9, 2024 | 03:23 am

Crude oil has been on a steady downtrend since the end of the retaliations between Iran and Israel that eventually marked the top in the geopolitical risk premium. The selloff continued as we got some noise from the cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. More recently, we started to get news about speculations that OPEC+ could extend the voluntary output cuts into year end. The group meets on June 1st. Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil fell below the trendline yesterday but eventually rallied back above it leaving behind a hammer candlestick pattern. We have a resistance zone around the $81 level where we might find the sellers stepping in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the $85 level. Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone with a downward trendline adding some extra confluence. If we get a pullback into the upward trendline around the $78.50 level, we can expect the buyers to step back in with a better risk to reward setup to target the break above the $81 resistance. Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while tomorrow we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, so the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro Testing the Top of Consolidation Against British Pound

May 9, 2024 | 03:18 am

The euro has rallied again during the early hours on Wednesday against the British pound, as we continue to see the British pound suffer at the hands of volatility.

EUR/USD Analysis: Dollar Regains Ground

May 9, 2024 | 02:49 am

May 09, 2024, Analysis of euro price against the dollar EUR/USD

CAC Forecast: Continues to Pressure Resistance

May 9, 2024 | 02:40 am

The Parisian CAC rallied again during the early hours on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of upward pressure in equities globally.

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Continues to Look for Support Against Swiss Franc

May 9, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound fell during the early hours on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of volatility in the GBP/CHF pair.

USD/PKR Analysis: Speculative Eye Test and Slight Move to Lower Depth

May 9, 2024 | 02:34 am

The USD/PKR has traded lower in the past week and is maintaining value within the midst of a range band that is testing mid-term depths.

USD/JPY Analysis: A Noticeable Disregard for Japanese Warnings

May 9, 2024 | 02:34 am

The yen's collapse resumed this week as concerns about the country's economy and interventions continued.

GBP/JPY Forecast: British Pound Continues to Grind Higher Against Japanese Yen

May 9, 2024 | 02:30 am

The British pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Tuesday against the Japanese yen, which does make a certain amount of sense considering we have been in an uptrend for some time.

ETH/USD Forecast: Ethereum Continues to Test Support

May 9, 2024 | 02:25 am

Ethereum has had a slightly negative trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to hang around the crucial $3000 level.

USD/ILS Analysis: Mid-Term Highs within Sight and Stable Sentiment

May 9, 2024 | 02:22 am

The USD/ILS has traded slightly higher in early morning trading, this as the currency pair remains within sight of short and mid-term highs as technical ranges hold.

Crude Oil Forecast: Continues to See Volatility

May 9, 2024 | 02:20 am

Crude oil initially plunged during the trading session on Wednesday but has turned around to show signs of strength.

Dax Forex Signal: Continues to See Overhead Ceiling

May 9, 2024 | 02:15 am

The German DAX initially tried to rally a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday but turned around to show signs of exhaustion.

XAU/USD Forecast: Gold Continues to Show Signs of Support Just Below

May 9, 2024 | 02:10 am

Gold was rather choppy during the early hours on Wednesday, but we do still have a significant amount of support below that comes into the picture to offer a bit of a potential buying opportunity.

XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Stability Remains Within Narrow Ranges

May 9, 2024 | 02:07 am

May 09, 2023. Gold Forecast and Analysis of the price of gold XAU/USD today

Precious Metals Forecast: Silver Breaks Out, Gold Consolidates

May 9, 2024 | 02:02 am

Silver is outperforming Gold, so traders should be more confident of being long of Silver than of Gold.

Interest rate decision. UK, 13:00 (GMT+2)

May 9, 2024 | 02:00 am

At 13:00 (GMT+2), the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy is due. The regulator may keep the interest rate at 5.25%. The accompanying statement may contain officials’ vision of the state and immediate prospects of the national economy, as well as hints on further actions in monetary policy. Read more

GBP/USD Analysis: All Eyes on BoE Decision

May 9, 2024 | 01:48 am

The GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen below the psychological support level of 1.2500, extending losses to the 1.2467 support level before settling around 1.2495

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Could Retest the Resistance at 0.6650 Soon

May 9, 2024 | 01:39 am

The AUD/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as traders assessed the recent actions by the Federal Reserve and Australia’s central bank.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Expect Volatility Ahead of the BoE Decision

May 9, 2024 | 01:28 am

The GBP/USD pair will be in the spotlight on Thursday as the Bank of England (BoE) provides hints on when it will start slashing interest rates.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: More Upside as it Finds Support at the 50 EMA

May 9, 2024 | 01:17 am

The EUR/USD exchange rate softened this week after another set of economic data from Europe.

Gold Technical Analysis – Waiting for a catalyst for some action.

May 9, 2024 | 01:16 am

We haven’t seen much action in gold this week as the lack of catalysts kept the market at bay. In fact, the price action remains tentative as we head into the US CPI release next Wednesday. Looking at the bigger picture, the Fed’s preference for a higher for longer stance rather than further tightening is more or less neutral for gold, although given the huge rally since the 2000 level it could lead to a slow correction lower. For another sustained rally, gold will need the market to price back in more rate cuts, and that should happen only with much weaker US data or downside surprises in the US inflation figures. Conversely, another reacceleration in the data with hot readings all around will likely trigger a faster selloff. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold consolidated around the 2300 level as the market priced out almost all the rate cuts and the Fed is unwilling to tighten policy further. We are in a kind of limbo right now, waiting for a catalyst to trigger another sustained move. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will undoubtedly have a much better risk to reward setup around the 2150 level where we can find the confluence of the previous all-time high, the major trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a range between the 2280 support and the 2328 resistance. Technically, the market participants can “play the range” by buying at support and selling at resistance but avoid trading in the middle of the range unless there’s a tradable catalyst. The red line around the 2352 level defines the current technical downtrend, so a break above it should turn the trend around and likely lead to a rally into a new all-time high. Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while tomorrow we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, so the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next week.See the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Short-Term Bearish Price Channel Dominates

May 9, 2024 | 00:50 am

Yet there are strong support levels nearby.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

May 8, 2024 | 23:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0736; (P) 1.0747; (R1) 1.0759; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0733) holds. On the upside, above 1.0810 will resume the rebound from 1.0601 to 1.0884 resistance next. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Trade balance. China, 05:00 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 18:00 pm

At 05:00 (GMT+2), trade balance data is due in China. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. It may grow from 58.55B American dollars to 81.40B American dollars, supporting the yuan. Read more

Building approvals. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2) in Australia, data on the number of building permits issued monthly by the government for real estate construction is due. It is one of the most important market indicators. It may change from −1.9% to 1.9% MoM, supporting the Australian dollar. Read more

RICS house price balance sheet. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2) in the UK, the April balance of house prices from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is due, which records changes in property values and allows you to analyze the situation on the market. The indicator may slow the negative trend from −4.0% to −2.0%, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

What is the technical roadmap for the GBPUSD through the BOE interest rate decision.

May 8, 2024 | 12:45 pm

The BOE rate decision will announced at 7:00 AM. No change is expected. However, it is in the nuances of the statement and comments that will drive the roadmap for traders - either bullish or bearish.To understand that, it is important to understand where the technical levels are that the "market" will pay attention to. What would increase the bullish bias? What would increase the bearish bias? If you know those levels/areas, look for the break and the run. Admittedly, it may take a surprise, but if you don't anticipate the price action, you are not ready to play/to trade. In this video, I outline the roadmap for the pair both to the upside and downside.with a focus on the key targets that if broken, would break the pair to new targets with momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY buyers are keeping control at least in the short and medium term. Stay above 155.00

May 8, 2024 | 12:10 pm

As we head toward the end of trading on May 8 and look toward the beginning of trading on May 9, the USDJPY is keeping its buyers more in control. For buyers looking for more upside the 200-hour moving average at 155.45, and the 38.2% retracement of the move lower from the end of April high near 155.00 is now support. If the price is able to remain above those levels, the buyers remain in play/control at least in the short term.On the topside, the 50% midpoint of the recent move down from the April high comes in at 156.029. That is the next major target to get to and through for the buyers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro drifting after weak German data

May 8, 2024 | 08:42 am

The euro continues to have an uneventful week. EUR/USD is up down 0.06%, trading at 1.0748 in the North American session at the time of trading. German industrial production declines It has been a mixed week for German data. German industrial production declined by 0.4% m/m in March after a revised gain of 1.7% in […]

EURUSD muddles along with support and resistance defined by technical swing levels/MAs

May 8, 2024 | 08:41 am

The EURUSD muddles along with support and resistance defined by technical levels. More specifically the higher the swing area 1.07346 held support. The bounce higher has run into resistance against another swing area between 1.0752 and 1.0756. The 100-day moving average is also in play at 1.0753 on the topside.The range is still very narrow at about 22 pips for the day. As a result, traders are patiently waiting for the next shove.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD continues its move lower into retracement support, but below key 100D MA.

May 8, 2024 | 07:58 am

The AUDUSD has continued/resumed its run to the downside after the selloff on the "less hawkish" RBA rate decision. The move to the downside for the price back below its swing area near 0.6585, and it's 100-day moving average 0.6575. The momentum continued down until reaching the broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December high to the April low. That level comes in at 0.65559.With support at the retracement level, and resistance now defined by the 100-day moving average and swing level, the battle lines are drawn for both the buyers and the sellers. With the price back below the 100-day moving average, the tilt is to the sellers as long as that level remains above the current level. To fully understand the roadmap, watch the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD rotates back lower in the early NA session & looks to test support target support.

May 8, 2024 | 07:28 am

The USDCAD based and moved higher in the Asian session, but has rotated back to the downside where there is support between 1.3715 and 1.3727. Within that area are Swing lows and swing highs going back to April 11 between 1.37146 and 1.37275. The 50% midpoint of the trading range since the April high at 1.37275, and the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart 1.37159If the buyers are to hold support, that area will be the risk-defining area. Staying above is more bullish. Moving below would shift the bias back to the downside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF consolidates gains. Traders use swing area resistance as lean point/low risk target

May 8, 2024 | 06:36 am

The USDCHF is consolidating in a narrow trading range today after and up and down move to the upside on Monday and Tuesday. Recall on Monday, the low price installed nearly 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March 2024 low. That level comes in at 0.90341.The subsequent move to the upside has taken the price back above its falling 100-hour moving average at 0.90753. However, resistance held against a swing area between 0.9087 and 0.90949. Sellers leaned against the high of that risk-defining level today. The stall at that level, increases at levels importance from a technical perspective going forward. A move above is needed to give buyers the go-ahead to push higher.Conversely on the downside, the low price today stalled against its 100-hour moving average. Moving below that level would give sellers more ammunition, and disappoint the buyers seen this week. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis – The RBA disappointed the hawks

May 8, 2024 | 06:14 am

Fundamental OverviewThe USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. Nevertheless, the USD has been in the driving seat this week despite the lack of economic data or major changes in the fundamentals.The AUD, on the other hand, has been gaining ground against many major currencies following the latest Australian Q1 CPI report where the data beat expectations by a big margin pushing rate cuts expectations further away to Q2 2025 and raising the chances of a rate hike. The RBA yesterday disappointed the hawks as it didn’t add any hawkish language in the statement and the RBA’s Governor Bullock sounded pretty neutral despite repeating the same old message that they are “not ruling anything in or out”.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD couldn’t break above the key resistance zone around the 0.6650 level as the RBA disappointed the buyers and the USD weakness faded across the board. We will likely need a soft US CPI report next week to push the price beyond the resistance. There’s not much to work with this week, so the technicals might remain in the driving seat. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the 0.6577 level where we can find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the upside to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the 0.6650 resistance. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. It’s unlikely that we will see major changes to the market’s expectations though, and the next big event to watch will be the US CPI next week. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart the FX trading day for May 8 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

May 8, 2024 | 05:47 am

In the kickstart video, for May 8th, i will take a look at the USD vs three major currencies - the EUR, JPY and GBP. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - The buyers are in control

May 8, 2024 | 05:34 am

The USD weakened across the board last week due to a more dovish than expected FOMC decision last week where the Fed decided to signal a bigger QT taper beginning in June and the Fed Chair Powell pushing back repeatedly against rate hike expectations. Moreover, the data on Friday showed that the Fed might indeed just keep rates higher for longer as job and wage growth soften. Nevertheless, the USD has been in the dirving seat this week despite the lack of economic data or major changes in the fundamentals.The CAD, on the other hand, might have been under pressure due to the sustained weakness in crude oil prices and expectations building for the BOC to cut rates in June, although the employment data on Friday and the Canadian CPI report on May 21st will likely decide if the BOC will wait until July or proceed with a cut already in June. USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD has been rallying steadily since the US NFP report. The reasons for the rally are unclear as the only thing that changed is the market pricing in two rate cuts for the Fed after the Friday's data release. Nevertheless, the pair remains in an uptrend as the price bounced on the key support zone around the 1.36 handle where we had also the confluence of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The target for the buyers should be the cycle highs around the 1.39 handle, while the sellers will need a break below the trendline to start positioning for a drop back into the 1.32 handle. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that have a clear uptrend on this timeframe with the price printing higher highs and higher lows. From a risk management perspective though, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking to the downside to invalidate the bullish trend and position for a drop into the 1.36 support. Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures while on Friday we conclude the week with the Canadian jobs data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. A lower wage growth figure coupled with another uptick in the unemployment rate will likely weigh a lot on the Canadian Dollar. Conversely data mostly in line with expectations or a bit better shouldn’t change much, although the market might place more probability for a July cut rather than for the June one. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EIA Crude Oil Inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

May 8, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish a weekly Crude Oil Inventories report containing data on changes in the volume of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the United States. A correction is expected from the current 7.265 million barrels to -2.300 million barrels, which may support the quotes of "black gold". Read more

Canadian dollar slips despite strong Ivey PMI

May 8, 2024 | 05:16 am

USD/CAD has edged higher on Wednesday and is up 0.25%, trading at 1.3760 at the time of writing. Canada’s Ivey PMI climbed sharply in April to 63.0, up from 57.5 in March and beating the forecast of 58.1. This marked the highest level since May 2022, indicating that purchasing managers have seen an improvement in […]

The USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins

May 8, 2024 | 05:07 am

As the North American session begins, the USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The JPY is just behind the AUD as one of the weakest currencies after comments from Japan Finance Minister and BOJs Ueda failed to scare sufficiently JPY sellers. The JPY is working on its 3rd day in a row lower (higher USDJPY and other JPY pairs). Suzuki's comments emphasize cautious monitoring of foreign exchange movements, stressing the importance of stability and the negative impact of a weak yen. He highlighted the urgency in observing market fluctuations without committing to specific FX levels or defending absolute thresholds. Suzuki expressed a readiness to intervene if necessary to address rapid and undesirable shifts in currency values, aiming for movements that reflect economic fundamentals.Ueda, while addressing the Diet, emphasized that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy primarily targets inflation, not the yen rate, although it acknowledges the significant impact of FX movements on the economy. He noted that the weak yen increases import costs, affecting the economy and potentially inflation trends. While the BOJ does not aim to control FX rates directly, it considers them as one of many factors influencing the economy. Ueda stated that if yen volatility significantly affects inflation trends, the BOJ might adjust monetary policy accordingly. He anticipates trend inflation to gradually approach 2%, and the BOJ is prepared to modify its monetary stance earlier than expected if inflation risks or actual rates deviate significantly from their forecasts. Additionally, Ueda mentioned that the BOJ will continue its daily bond buying, adjusting the amount based on market developments but maintaining the current pace for now. He also highlighted that the Japanese economy is recovering, albeit with weaknesses, and expressed readiness to adapt to economic shocks with all available means, including unconventional measures. Rapid, one-sided yen falls were characterized as undesirable for the economy.Geopolitically, Israel sees no signs of breakthrough in the truce talks in Gaza. However, Israeli delegation is still in Cairo. Yesterday it was reported that Palestine had accepted an agreement, but the agreement was not what Israel proposed. So it was immediately rejected.The economic calendar in Europe was minimal with German industrial production falling -0.4% versus -0.6% expected. The calendar in the North American session isn't any more lively with wholesale inventories (revised) to be released at 10 AM ET. The estimate is -0.4% +0.4% last month. The weekly oil inventory data will be 10:30 AM with crude oil stocks expected to show a drawdown of -1.066M and gasoline stocks expected at -1.255M. The private data released yesterday showed a build of 0.509M in oil stocks and a build of 1.460M for gasoline. Today crude oil is down around $-0.90.On the Fed speaking circuit today, Fed Gov. Lisa Cook, Fed's Collins and and Fed Gov. Jefferson are all expected to voice their views on things after the Fed decision last week.Note that the Bank of England will meet tomorrow and after recent decision at 7 AM ET.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $0.82 or -1.05% at $77.56.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $78.28Gold is trading unchanged at $2313.58. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2313.32Silver is trading near unchanged at $27.22. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.26Bitcoin currently trades at $62,357. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $53,811In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower after mixed/little changed values yesterday:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -17.26 points. Yesterday, the index rose 31.99 points or 0.08% at 38884.27.S&P futures are implying a decline of -10.20 points yesterday, the S&P index rose 6.90 points or 0.13% at 5187.71.Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -44.12 points. Yesterday the index fell -16.69 points or -0.10% at 16332.56.European stock indices are trading mostly higher:German DAX, +0.31%France CAC , closed for holidayUK FTSE 100, +0.27%Spain's Ibex, +0.51%.Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.22% (delayed 10 minutes)..Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mixed/higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, -1.63%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.61%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.90%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.14%Looking at the US debt market, yields are higher. Today the U.S. Treasury will auction off 10-year notes. Yesterday, the three year note was auctioned with solid demand (tail was negative and bid-to-cover numbers were higher than the six-month average). Tomorrow they will auction off 30-year bonds:2-year yield 4.842%, +1.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.822%5-year yield 4.497%, +2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.476%10-year yield 4.487%, +2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.473%30-year yield 4.628%, +2.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.619%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads the yield curve is steeper (but still negative):The 2-10 year spread is at -35.5 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at - 34.9 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -21.4 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -19.8 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY – Yen weakness prompts warning from Tokyo

May 8, 2024 | 03:41 am

The Japanese yen is down for a third straight day and has declined 1.5% this week. USD/JPY has risen 0.43% on the day and is trading at 155.35 at the time of writing. Early Thursday, the BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions from the April meeting. Japanese officials remain mum about suspected interventions on […]

Industrial Production. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the data on German Industrial Production for March will be published. Industrial Production gauges the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output manufacturers, quarries, and utilities produced. The indicator takes into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the power industry. The value is expected to correct from 2.1% to -1.0% month-on-month, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) is due. Earlier, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.906M barrels of crude oil, and this trend continuation may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

Yen extends losses, Fed members cautious

May 7, 2024 | 05:46 am

The Japanese yen is down for a second straight day on Tuesday. USD/JPY has risen 0.45%, up 154.59, up 0.45% at the time of writing. The yen is down 1% this week after soaring 3.4% against the dollar a week earlier. The markets are still buzzing after Japan’s Ministry of Finance apparently intervened twice last […]

Australian dollar weakens as RBA says no rate hikes planned

May 7, 2024 | 05:10 am

The Australian dollar has lost ground on Tuesday. AUD/USD has dropped by 0.31%, trading at 0.6604 in the European session at the time of writing. RBA stays pat but wary of inflation There was no surprise as the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the cash rate at 4.35% for a sixth straight time. The RBA […]

Ivey PMI. Canada, 16:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2) in Canada, April data on the Ivey business activity index is due. The indicator reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The value may increase from 57.5 points to 58.1 points, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Pound shrugs as construction PMI jumps

May 7, 2024 | 01:59 am

The British pound is slightly lower on Tuesday. GBP/USD is down 0.21%, trading at 1.2535 in the European session at the time of writing. The UK construction PMI jumped to 53.0 in April, up from 50.2 in March and above the forecast of 50.4. This is only the second reading showing growth after six straight […]

AUD/NZD: Aussie medium-term outperformance against Kiwi intact supported by RBA

May 7, 2024 | 00:42 am

Today’s RBA monetary policy decision statement has kept the possibility of a rate hike before 2024 ends “alive”. The narrowing of the discount between Australia-New Zealand sovereign bonds yield spread has supported the potential continuation of the AUD/NZD medium-term uptrend phase. Watch the key medium-term support of 1.0940 on the AUD/NZD. The paths of inflationary […]

Retail sales. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 7, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), data on retail sales in the EU is due. The indicator monthly records the totality of all goods retailers sold, based on a sample of retail outlets of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on a region’s gross domestic product. It may adjust from −0.5% to 0.6% MoM. Read more

Construction PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on the business activity index in the construction sector is due in the UK. The indicator reflects the state of business sentiment in the construction market based on a survey of managers of the country’s largest companies. It may rise from 50.2 points to 50.4 points. Read more

Factory orders. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the volume of industrial orders is due in Germany. This indicator records the number of orders for durable and non-durable goods. It may change from 0.2% to 0.4%, supporting the euro. Read more

Trade balance. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March trade balance data is due in Germany. This indicator records the difference between the payments for exported and imported goods. It may adjust from 21.4B euros to 22.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

Unemployment rate. Switzerland, 07:45 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 20:45 pm

At 07:45 (GMT+2), Switzerland will publish April data on the unemployment rate – an indicator that records the percentage of registered unemployed over 18 years to the total working-age population. The non-seasonally adjusted value may grow from 2.4% and the seasonally adjusted value from 2.3%, putting pressure on the franc. Read more

Interest rate decision. Australia, 06:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 19:30 pm

At 06:30 (GMT+2), the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision. Officials are likely to keep the value at the current level of 4.35%. The accompanying statement may contain an assessment of the country’s financial authorities regarding the current state of the economy against global geopolitical tensions. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOE, RBA, China trade and inflation data on the radar for this week

May 6, 2024 | 18:08 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, two central banks’ monetary policy to ponder on ex-post “not so hawkish” FOMC last week engineered by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. In the Asia pacific region, we will have RBA meeting on Tuesday (7 May) […]

Retail sales. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), Australia will release Q1 retail sales data, a key indicator of consumer spending that has a significant impact on the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It may change from 0.3% to −0.2% MoM, putting pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2) in Japan, the April index of business activity in the service sector from the national Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry is due. The indicator reflects the total cost of services purchased by companies in key service industries (excluding manufacturing) and is a leading indicator of the Tankan Business Activity Index. It may rise from 54.1 points to 54.6 points, supporting the yen. Read more

BRC retail sales monitor. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), April retail sales data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) is due. The indicator considers the dynamics of sales of goods in stores open for at least a year based on the information they regularly provide. The April value may change from 3.2% to 1.8%, supporting the pound. Read more

Yen rally fizzles as US dollar climbs

May 6, 2024 | 08:29 am

The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Monday after stringing together a three-day rally. USD/JPY is trading at 153.92, up 0.62% at the time of writing. The yen took traders on a roller-coaster ride last week. The Japanese yen fell below the 160 level on Monday, setting another 34-year record before recovering. On Wednesday, the […]

Euro edges higher as eurozone data improves

May 6, 2024 | 06:25 am

The euro has started the new trading week quietly. EUR/USD is up 0.23%, trading at 1.0787 in the North American session at the time of trading. Eurozone investor confidence shows slight improvement The eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index took a small step forward in May, rising to -3.6, up from -5.9 in April and was […]

Gold Technical: A floor may have been formed for the bulls

May 6, 2024 | 01:46 am

Stagflation risk is still lingering as indicated by the latest April US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data. A not fully priced-in stagflation risk scenario may support another bullish impulsive upmove sequence for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the key medium-term pivotal zone of US$2,260/2,210 for Gold (XAU/USD). This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, […]

AUD/USD hits one-month high, RBA decision next

May 6, 2024 | 01:43 am

The Australian dollar has started the week with modest gains. AUD/USD is up 0.25%, trading at 0.6624 in the European session at the time of writing. The Aussie is coming off a strong week, having gained 1.19%. RBA widely expected to pause The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is widely expected to […]

Producer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

May 6, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the producer price index in the EU is due. The indicator reflects changes in the price of goods at the wholesale level (raw materials, semi-finished products and final goods are taken into account). Increasing prices for producers contributes to the growth of consumer inflation in the region. A decrease of the indicator from –8.3% YoY and from –1.0% MoM will put pressure on the euro. Read more

NZ dollar higher as nonfarm payrolls looms

May 3, 2024 | 04:28 am

The New Zealand dollar has extended its gains on Friday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5985, up 0.39% at the time of writing. It has been a roller-coaster ride for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 1.5% on Tuesday but has since rebounded and fully recovered. US nonfarm payrolls expected to ease The US economy remains […]

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