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GDP report shows why it’s a fool’s game to bet on the Fed’s interest-rate moves

Buying stocks after the “final rate hike” in a cycle demands perfect timing.

Rules-Based Money Management - Part 2: Measuring the Market

Note to the reader: This is the eighteenth in a series of articles I'm publishing here taken from my book, "Investing with the Trend." Hopefully, you will find this content useful. Market myths are generally perpetuated by repetition, misleading symbolic connections, and the complete ignorance of facts. The world of finance is full of such tendencies, and here, you'll see some examples. Please keep in mind that not all of these examples are totally misleading -- they are sometimes valid -- but have too many holes in them to be worthwhile as investment concepts. And not all are directly related to investing and finance. Enjoy! - GregWeight of the Evidence MeasuresI have been fond of a weight of the evidence approach for more than 30 years.The concept of "weight of the evidence" came from Stan Weinstein, who published the newsletter The Professional Tape Reader and is the author of Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets. Back in the early 1980s, most analysis was done manually. We did not have computers, Internet, or e-mail. Our data came from subscriptions or newspapers. I was a religious user of the Barron's Market Laboratory pages. I was working with Norm North of N-Squared Computing then, designing technical analysis software (yes, it was DOS-based and ran on 5.25" floppies). Norm had started a database of about 130 items from the market lab pages and, each Saturday, I would go to the nearby hotel, buy a copy of Barron's, update the database then upload it to CompuServe so our clients could download it—all at the lightning fast speed of 300 baud. I 'm somewhat of a packrat, and have many ring binders full of charts and notes; Figure 13.1 is the weight of the evidence approach I used back then. Wish I could print like that now.I have totally stopped using the sentiment measures because I think the data collection process is not reliable. If you have ever taken a survey, especially an unsolicited survey, you can probably guess where I 'm coming from. However, that does not mean the data isn't worthwhile—just not for me. There is, however, an excellent service provided by Jason Goepfert called SentimenTrader at www.sentimentrader.com. Jason provided an example of a sentiment indicator that can be used in trend analysis.Figure 13.2 is the put/call ratio, which tends to trend along with the market. We see a higher average range during bear markets and a lower average range during bull markets. That has changed a little bit over the past decade, as there has been a structural shift to higher put/call ratios—more hedging from nervous investors who have been whacked with two big bear markets. But you can still see the trend in the ratio from a bull market to the next bear market.I also no longer use any of the NYSE member/specialist data or odd-lot data, as most doesn't seem as valid today as then. Now, the technical trend-following measures that make up the weight of the evidence consist of price, breadth, and relative strength indicators.A Note on OptimizationWhen evaluating indicators to be considered for trend following, you cannot optimize over long-term periods and then just pick the best performing indicator. That is a guarantee of failure, probably quite soon. Optimization is a great process in which to discover areas to avoid, but a poor process to actually determine parameters. If you do try to optimize then please read some good book on the downfalls of doing so. Optimization in the wrong hands is extremely dangerous.One area of value is to plot all of parameter's performance and look for plateaus (box) where the parameter performed steadily over a range of similar values. Picking a spike (circle) is the worst thing you can do, as the parameter surrounding the spike are probably closer to where you will see the actual results. See Figure 13.3.Indicator Evaluation PeriodsIndicators need to be evaluated over cyclical bull and bear markets, secular markets, periods covering calendar-based times, randomly selected periods, and almost any other period selection process you want to try. Remember, the goal is to find parameters that meet the needs of the model you are trying to create. You want indicators whose statistics over various times provide the safety and return that you expect of them. Ideally, you want to test the indicators with a certain portion of your data, get the parameters that work well, and then check it on the remaining portion of your data. This is known as in sample and out of sample testing. If the indicator continues to perform on the previously unused data, then you probably have something.Figure 13.4 shows the Nasdaq Composite Average and the S&P 500 Index. The vertical lines are placed at each low and high that can be used to determine the evaluation periods. You must be careful with this and include the significant peaks and troughs when viewed over the long term. In fact, using a weekly price chart is probably better for this than using a daily price chart.The remainder of this section covers many of the weight of the evidence indicators (measures) that are good for trend following. These can be separated into three broad categories: price, breadth, and relative strength.Price-Based IndicatorsPrice-based means that the indicator is measuring movement in price instruments, whether it be from an index such as the Nasdaq Composite Average, the S&P 500, or from an individual security, such as an ETF, a stock, a mutual fund, and so on. I use the Nasdaq Composite for my price guide because it is a high beta index that contains small caps, mid-caps, large caps, technology, just about everything except financials, and also has some dogs. If you are going to be a trend follower, then you want to follow a price-based index that moves; it doesn't matter if it is up or down, it just needs to do so in a big way, and the Nasdaq Composite fills the bill.Price Short TermThe short version of price is more for shorter-term assessment of trendiness. It is simply[…]

Affordable senior housing faces crisis-level demand and scarce supply: 26,000 applications for 84 units

“It’s one of the worst environments of housing availability.”

Southwest Airlines considers ending open seating as loss widens, revenue falls short

Southwest Airlines Co.’s stock tumbled 9% Thursday after the airline posted a wider-than-expected first-quarter loss and revenue that lagged estimates.

Royal Caribbean sees record bookings as demand for experiences and travel grow

There were a lot of records associated with Royal Caribbean’s first-quarter report, including ticket pricing, bookings and the stock, as demand for cruises remained “very robust.”

Employees work hard when they have a sense of ownership — so make them owners

Corporations should share the wealth with those who help create it.

Microsoft Q3 2024 Earnings: Stay tuned for the live earnings call and real-time transcript

Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) will be reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2024 today after the closing bell. The tech giant had entered the fiscal year on an […] The post Microsoft Q3 2024 Earnings: Stay tuned for the live earnings call and real-time transcript first appeared on AlphaStreet.

ET Market Watch: 5 key factors behind today's stock market rally

LTTS Q4 Results: Net profit grows marginally to Rs 340 crore

​L&T Technology Services (LTTS) on Thursday reported a marginal 0.2 per cent growth in net profit for the March quarter at Rs 340 crore on slower revenue growth and narrowing of margins. The company said it is planning to add 500 employees during the April-June period.

The Anglo American share price soars to £25, but I’m not selling!

On Thursday, the Anglo American share price soared after mega-miner BHP Group made an unsolicited bid for it. But I won't sell my stock at these levels. The post The Anglo American share price soars to £25, but I’m not selling! appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

IndusInd Bank Q4 Results: Net profit jumps 15% YoY to Rs2,349 crore

​IndusInd Bank reported 15% growth in net profit to Rs2,349 crore for the quarter ended March 31, 2024 compared to ₹2,043 crores during corresponding quarter of previous year on account of increase in loan book and higher yield on advances.

Market Trading Guide: TVS Motor, JSW Steel among 5 stock recommendations for Friday

The S&P BSE Sensex closed 0.66% higher at 74,339, while the NSE Nifty50 index ended above the 22,550 level.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Earnings: 1Q24 Key Numbers

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) reported total revenue of $2.7 billion for the first quarter of 2024, up 14.1% year-over-year. Comparable restaurant sales increased 7%. Net income was $359.3 […] The post Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Earnings: 1Q24 Key Numbers first appeared on AlphaStreet.

Meta sinks 13%, sparks tech selloff as AI splurge spooks Wall Street

Shares of Meta Platforms sank 13% on Thursday, sparking a selloff in big technology stocks after the social media firm signaled its costly bet on AI could take years to pay off.

Caterpillar’s Market Reset Isn’t Over: Get Ready for Lower Prices

Caterpillar is a solid dividend-paying stock whose price is heading to lower levels. The uptrend is intact; get ready to buy in when the signal comes.

Technical Breakout Stocks: How to trade SBI, Hitachi Energy and Aditya Birla Capital on Friday

SBI shares had been in a consolidation zone of Rs 720-790 for almost two months now and on Thursday it gave a channel breakout with good volumes. With the Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the verge of entering an extremely bullish zone, this stock can touch the Rs 850-860 zone in the short term.

Key highlights from Bristol Myers Squibb’s (BMY) Q1 2024 earnings results

Bristol Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) reported first quarter 2024 earnings results today. Total revenues increased 5% year-over-year to $11.9 billion. When adjusted for foreign exchange impacts, revenues grew 6%. GAAP […] The post Key highlights from Bristol Myers Squibb’s (BMY) Q1 2024 earnings results first appeared on AlphaStreet.

3 Bargain Stocks Near 52-week Lows

Three undeniable bargains came into play after the market's disappointment sell off, investors still have double-digit upside ahead of them in these names

MRK Earnings: Merck Q1 2024 profit jumps on 9% revenue growth

Pharmaceutical company Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) reported a sharp increase in adjusted earnings for the first quarter of 2024, aided by an increase in revenues. First-quarter worldwide sales […] The post MRK Earnings: Merck Q1 2024 profit jumps on 9% revenue growth first appeared on AlphaStreet.

A Mega Market Reset for Meta Platforms Stock

Meta Platforms has had a robust quarter and is guiding for another year of double-digit gains. The market hoped for more, and the stock price has been reset.

Bajaj Auto, Exide Industries among 5 stocks with top short covering

Short covering signals a shift in view on security from extreme bearishness to bullishness.

Tech View: Nifty forms bullish engulfing candle. What should traders do on Friday

Analysis of Nifty Put options indicates a concentration of Open Interest (OI) at the 22,500 level, suggesting potential support. On the Call side, significant OI concentrations are observed at the 22,900 and 23,000 levels, nearing all-time highs.

3 top investment trusts that ‘green’ up my Stocks and Shares ISA

I’ll be buying more of these investment trusts for my Stocks and Shares ISA given the sustainable and stable returns they offer. The post 3 top investment trusts that ‘green’ up my Stocks and Shares ISA appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

HAL and Tata Steel among 10 stocks that saw highest number of shareholder addition

Stock market update: Nifty Realty index falls 0.25%

The Nifty Realty index closed 0.25 per cent down at 963.35.

Stock market update: Nifty Pharma index advances 1.57%

The Nifty Pharma index closed 1.57 per cent up at 18878.15.

Nucor Stock Earnings Riding the Steel Industry Wave

Nucor's earnings may have scared off investors, though the fine print actually shows how the business is now ramping up to an explosive year

8.6% or 7.2%? Does the Legal & General or Aviva dividend look better?

The Aviva dividend tempts our writer. But so does the payout from Legal & General. Here he explains why he'd happily own both -- and which he'd buy first. The post 8.6% or 7.2%? Does the Legal & General or Aviva dividend look better? appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

FIIs, MFs trim stakes in these 6 stocks for 3 straight quarters

Sensex rises! But these stocks fell 5% or more in Thursday's session

In the Nifty pack, 40 stocks closed in the green, while 10 stocks ended in the red.

Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 2024 Earnings: Key financials and quarterly highlights

Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) reported first quarter 2024 earnings results today. Total operating revenues increased 10.9% year-over-year to $6.3 billion. Net loss was $231 million, or $0.39 per share, […] The post Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q1 2024 Earnings: Key financials and quarterly highlights first appeared on AlphaStreet.

Stock market update: FMCG stocks down as market rises

The 30-share BSE Sensex closed up 486.5 points at 74339.44

Stock market update: Nifty Bank index advances 0.63%

The Nifty Bank index closed 0.63 per cent up at 48494.95.

Here’s why the Unilever share price is soaring after Q1 earnings

Stephen Wright isn’t surprised to see the Unilever share price rising as the company’s Q1 results show it’s executing on its strategy. The post Here’s why the Unilever share price is soaring after Q1 earnings appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

The AstraZeneca share price lifts 5% on a top-and-bottom earnings beat

The AstraZeneca share price reached £120 today and helped push the FTSE 100 higher. Would I still buy this flying stock for my portfolio? The post The AstraZeneca share price lifts 5% on a top-and-bottom earnings beat appeared first on The Motley Fool UK.

10% Downside Risk For Stocks as Value Takes The Lead

Value taking the lead from growthThe weekly RRG above shows the rotation for Growth vs Value stocks. The benchmark is the DJ US index. The recent rotation clearly shows the rotation out of growth into value, taking shape and picking up steam. For now, Growth is still positioned on the right-hand side of the RRG, but the $DJUSGR tail is rapidly heading toward the lagging quadrant at a negative RRG-Heading.The daily version of this RRG underscores the preference for Value stocks.The $DJUSVA tail dropped into the weakening quadrant after a rotation through leading since mid-March and sharply hooked back up after one day inside the lagging quadrant and is now returning into the leading quadrant, supporting a further strengthening for the Value tail on the weekly time-frame.$SPX usually tracks the Growth/Value ratio pretty goodPlotting the Growth/Value ratio on top of the price chart for $SPX shows that they have tracked each other quite well over time. This is a monthly chart, so we're discussing long-term trends here.The main takeaway here is that the S&P usually does well when the growth/value ratio goes up and less well when the ratio moves lower.With the RRG currently showing a strong preference for Value stocks, caution is warranted as this might be the precursor for a further decline in the S&P 500 itself.The preference for value over growth shows up across all size segmentsWhen we break down the Growth and Value segments into their respective size buckets, we get the RRG above. This shows that value beats growth across all size segments. Large-, Mid-, and Small-cap Value tails are all inside the improving quadrant and moving at a positive RRG-Heading.The growth tails are slightly more divided, but all three are on a negative RRG-Heading, with large-cap growth showing the fastest deterioration. Mid-Cap is the most stable, with its short tail just inside the weakening quadrant. While small-cap growth stocks have rolled over inside the leading quadrant and are starting to head lower on both scales.All in all, this underscores the need for caution regarding price developments for the S&P 500 in the coming weeks.5%-10% downside risk within long-term uptrendOn the weekly chart, SPY found support at the level of the former rising resistance line at around 494. More important support is found at the level of the January-2022 peak at 480, and in case that breaks, the area around 460 will provide another solid support area. With the current longer-term trend of higher highs and higher lows still firmly in place, we have to conclude that the uptrend is still in play.But at the same time, we have to realize that within that uptrend, a 5-10% decline is perfectly possible.The more detailed daily chart of SPY shows that the decline from the recent peak at 524 back to the low near 495, which is one move lower on the weekly chart, is already showing lower highs and lower lows, which means that rallies now have to be seen as up-ticks within a downtrend until this structure changes again.The green-shaded areas represent the support levels mentioned on the weekly chart. New buying opportunities within the long-term uptrend should start to arise in these ranges.Rotation into defensive sectors confirms risk-offFinally, the daily RRG for defensive sectors shows a rapid rotation into Health care, Consumer Staples, and Utilities in the last two weeks of trading, which confirms the need for caution in the coming weeks.#StayAlert, --Julius

What's Really Driving Tesla's Surprising Stock Surge?

Tesla's (TSLA) first-quarter earnings reported after Tuesday's market close was lackluster, bordering on disastrous. Yet the stock jumped 16% Wednesday morning, ripping open a wide breakaway gap from the previous day's close. What happened? Well, Elon Musk framed the dismal numbers with a compelling narrative that elevated its underperformance into a story about future growth. But does the story have enough fundamental fuel to break above the FOMO?From Sinking Ship to SkyrocketHere's a brief account of what happened on Tuesday: TSLA's revenue in the quarter fell by 9%, its vehicle production and deliveries were also down 2% and 9%, respectively, its operating income and adjusted EPS plunged by 56% and 47%, and its operating cash flow cratered by 90%.These figures alone would have tanked TSLA's stock price. So, what happened? Musk got TSLA prices flying with two sentences that essentially said the company is expediting the building of cheaper EVs based on the current models. Cheaper Tesla EVs mean a surge in demand and, by extension, growth.TSLA Stock: A Macro LookClick here for a live chart. In the weekly chart of TSLA below, the stock has been trading lower since peaking in October 2021 (even considering its attempt at recovery in early 2003). TSLA's stock price is close to its 2023 low.CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF TSLA. Despite the recovery attempt in early 2023, the longer-term trend has been down since 2021.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Currently, TSLA holds one of the worst StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) scores at 2.2, a few steps from zero. While the leading EV maker's performance was in sync with its industry ($DJUSAU), it badly underperformed the S&P 500 by more than -45%.Flying High on FOMO?Click here for a live chart.Now, take a look at the near-term price action in the daily chart of TSLA (see below). The stock exhibited a sudden burst of escape velocity to the upside after hitting a 52-week low.CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF TSLA. Breakaway gaps are bullish, TSLA's narrative is also bullish, but the rest of the technicals are iffy.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Breakaway gaps toward the upside are characterized by a powerful shift driven by intense sentiment. They rarely get filled right away.TSLA's 16% post-earnings gap is a strong bullish gesture, but notice the strong rejection in the current candle. This indicates, if anything, that the volume driving the gap may not be enough to give it a follow-through in the coming sessions (it's a wait-and-see moment). While the Money Flow Index (MFI) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) (the latter dipping back below the zero line) show an ever-so-slight divergence which might be interpreted as bullish, any surge from this point on will face a few technical headwinds above.TSLA is trading below its 50-day simple moving average, but if it crosses above it, note the critical resistance areas at the $180 and $205 range.Bullish or Bearish?One day's surge, no matter how impressive, doesn't define a trend. Likewise, a strong twist in the fundamental narrative doesn't mark a change in the story. As far as price targets are concerned, a survey of 30 analysts shows a wide range from a shocking $23 on the low end, a median target of $185, and a high range upwards of $310 to cap it off.Right now, everything is riding on the promises of production. As seasoned traders know, holding out for confirmation is usually the smart play. The technical indicators map out key short-term and long-term levels, giving you a clearer view of the battleground where all this drama will play out.Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

IBM reports Q1 results. Here’s everything you need to know

International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM) Wednesday announced operating results for the first quarter of 2024, reporting higher revenues and adjusted earnings. Total revenues were $14.46 billion in the first […] The post IBM reports Q1 results. Here’s everything you need to know first appeared on AlphaStreet.

Pinpoint the Next Buying Opportunity in SPY

On this week's edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe uses the MACD to analyze SPY and shares what to look for to find the next buy point. Joe then analyzes stocks including ADBE, XOM, and CRM.This video was originally published on April 24, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

IBM Q1 2024 Earnings: Stay tuned for the live earnings call and real-time transcript

Information technology giant International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE: IBM)  is scheduled to report first-quarter 2024 results today after the bell. Listen to IBM’s earnings call live and check the real-time […] The post IBM Q1 2024 Earnings: Stay tuned for the live earnings call and real-time transcript first appeared on AlphaStreet.

High-Yield Texas Instruments Could Hit New Highs Soon

Texas Instruments struggled in Q1, but details indicate a trough in the cycle and a return to growth ahead. Analysts are raising their price targets.

Higher Oil Prices Could Give NextEra’s Stock Earnings a Boost

Rising oil prices could make alternative energy stocks like NextEra the next best thing for investors to buy, secular trends in A.I. and Florida help valuations

GE Aerospace is Ready for Liftoff After Strong Earnings

GE stock is up sharply after a double beat; the company will be known as GE Aerospace going forward, and a bullish outlook may raise analysts' price targets

The Bottom is in For Tesla: Read This Before Buying the Bounce

Tesla had a tough quarter with deliveries and revenue down, a peak in TTM growth, and rising costs cutting into the cash pile.

BA Earnings: Highlights of Boeing’s Q1 2024 financial results

The Boeing Company (NYSE: BA) on Wednesday announced financial results for the first quarter of 2024, reporting a narrower net loss, on an adjusted basis. Revenues dropped 8%. Core loss, […] The post BA Earnings: Highlights of Boeing’s Q1 2024 financial results first appeared on AlphaStreet.

Is Zoom Video Stock Getting Too Cheap to Pass Up?

Zoom Video Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: ZM) shares hit a new 52-week low despite improvements indicating normalization may be near completion in its business

Duolingo Speaks the Language of Growth for Investors

Duolingo reported strong first quarter earnings and upbeat guidance, which is likely to translate into a bullish reversal for DUOL stock

Crane Stock's Quarter On-Track For a Bullish Year?

Crane stock's first quarter earnings showed investors why this stock earned Wall Street's love; it's valued over competitors with bullish price action

Buy the Dip or Sell the Rip?

In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave welcomes Bret Kenwell of eToro. Bret shares the levels he's watching for AAPL and AMD, speaks to this week's bounce higher, and points out why Energy still shows long-term strength. David breaks down earnings names and stocks on the move, including META, TSLA, and more.This video originally premiered on April 23, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance to focus on growing absolute VNB amid slump in FY24

In its Q4FY24 results, the company#39;s VNB fell 19.45 percent to Rs 2,227 crore for FY24

Trade setup for Wednesday: 15 things to know before opening bell

Based on the OI percentage, a total of 74 stocks were on the short-covering list which included Vodafone Idea, IndiaMART InterMESH, Biocon, Page Industries, and Sun TV Network.

IIHMR University launches certificate course on digital healthcare

The objective behind launching this course is to develop healthcare professionals with an understanding of digital health innovations

Charles Schwab Fortifies its Uptrend on EPS Beat

Retail financial services giant The Charles Schwab Co. (NYSE: SCHW) reported its first-quarter 2024 earnings in the wake of the market sell-off.

Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Ramayan’s Dipika Chikhlia aka Mata Sita campaigns for BJP#39;s Arun Govil in Meerut along with ‘Laxman’ Sunil Lahri

Dipik Chikhlia campaigns for Arun Govil in Meerut; As the countdown to the Meerut polls ticks away, BJP candidate Arun Govil received a nostalgic boost as he campaigned alongside his onscreen counterpart from the iconic TV series #39;Ramayan#39;.

Puravankara to redevelop residential housing society in Mumbai#39;s Pali Hil

The project has a cumulative estimated development potential of 4.10 lakh sq ft carpet, with over ~2.15 lakh square feet available for sale.

SME Action: Emmforce Autotech IPO booked 20.21 times on day 1, Faalcon Concepts closes with 68x subscription

Emmforce Autotech IPO: All categories of investors participated in the issue, buying 7.94 crore equity shares against IPO size of 39.33 lakh shares, subscription data available with the BSE showed.

SRK reacts to Mohanlal dancing to his song; the Malayalam superstar invites King Khan over breakfast: #39;Why not groove to some Zinda Banda?#39;

Malayalam megastar Mohanlal stole the spotlight at a recent award show with his electrifying dance performances, including grooving to #39;Zinda Banda#39; from the film #39;Jawan#39;. SRK took to social media to share the video, dubbing him the #39;OG Zinda Banda.#39;

Put Some PEP in Your Income Portfolio With PepsiCo Stock

Discover how consumer staples and Dividend Kings like PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) can add substantial value to your portfolio.

Sherwin-William’s Win Over PPG Stock in The Construction Boom

The coming U.S. construction boom could help a set of stocks aiding the wave, Sherwin-Williams is set up to be the winner in this race, so do analysts think

Zscaler’s Potential Upside Continues to Explode

With Zscaler’s RSI in the low 20s, indicating extremely oversold conditions, are we looking at the mother of all entry opportunities? 

2 Stocks to Benefit From New Sanctions on Russian Aluminum

The U.S. and U.K. have issued two new sanctions on Russian-origin metals; here are two aluminum stocks that stand to benefit

Week Ahead: Mild Technical Pullbacks Likely; NIFTY Remains Prone to Selling Pressure at Higher Levels

In the truncated week, the markets looked largely corrective, as the key indices lost ground during the week. In the previous technical note, it was mentioned that, on the one hand, no runaway moves should be expected, and on the other hand, the support for Nifty exists much below at 20-week MA. The markets ended up trading precisely on the expected lines. Not only they did not move higher, but also ended up testing the mentioned support level. The trading range got wider as the Nifty oscillated in a 649.80-point range during the truncated week. The volatility spiked; IndiaVix surged by 16.69% to 13.46. The headline index Nifty closed the week with a net weekly loss of 372.40 points (-1.65%).From a technical perspective, the markets have dragged their resistance points lower. While the high point of 22775 has become an intermediate top for the Nifty, the immediate resistance has been dragged lower to 22427, which is the high of the previous week. On the other hand, the 20-week MA, which is placed at 21921 can be considered immediate support on a closing basis. The 100-DMA also falls in the close vicinity; it currently stands at 21729. Over the coming days, we can largely expect the Nifty to remain in a broad trading range, with 22450-22500 working as strong resistance points.The coming week will likely see a stable start with the levels of 22450 and 22700 acting as potential resistance points. The supports come in at 22000 and 21780.The weekly RSI is at 61.78; it has marked a new 14-period low which is bearish. It, however, stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and trading below its signal line.The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows that the last phase of the upmove on Nifty had come with a strong bearish divergence of the RSI against the price. While the Index moved higher formed higher highs, the RSI was seen forming lower tops, which led to the emergence of the bearish divergence.All in all, the coming week may see some continued technical pullback; however, at the same time, the markets continue to remain prone to face selling pressure at a higher level. It is also likely that, apart from short-covering led bounces in the markets, we will continue to see a risk-off sentiment. This could lead to defensive pockets like IT, Pharma, FMCG, etc., trying and display a better relative strength. Overall, it is strongly recommended that one curtail leveraged exposures. While staying extremely selective, a highly cautious approach is advised for the coming week.Sector Analysis for the Coming WeekIn our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Consumption Index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. The Nifty Auto and Metal sectors are firmly placed inside the leading quadrant. Besides this, the Pharma and PSU Bank indices are also placed inside the leading quadrant, but they are giving up sharply on their relative momentum. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader markets.The Nifty Infrastructure and Commodities have rolled inside the weakening quadrant. The Nifty Energy, Midcap 100, PSE, and Realty Indices are also inside the weakening quadrant.The Nifty IT and Media groups continue to languish inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty FMCG index is also inside the lagging quadrant but it is seen improving on its relative momentum.The Nifty Services Sector Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant. The Financial Services Sector Index and Banknifty are also inside the improving quadrant and may see improving relative strength over the coming days.Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA Consulting Technical Analystwww.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

DP TRADING ROOM: Find Shorts Using the Diamond Dog Scan

Today Erin shared her Diamond Dog Scan that she uses to find shorting opportunities. She was able to uncover five possible shorts. She discusses each chart and let's you know what she looks for in a good short.Carl did the market overview with special attention paid to Silver and Gold as well as Gold Miners. He covered current DecisionPoint signals and walked us through the Magnificent Seven stocks.Semiconductors were a favorite among the symbol requests that Erin analyzed at the end of the program.01:13 DecisionPoint Signal Tables03:44 Market Overview with Carl13:02 Magnificent Seven17:45 Sector Analysis23:12 Diamond Dog Scan35:39 Symbol RequestsWatch the latest episode of the DecisionPointTrading Room on DP's YouTube channel here! Try us out for two weeks with a trial subscription! Use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout!Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.comDisclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.Helpful DecisionPoint Links:Trend ModelsPrice Momentum Oscillator (PMO)On Balance VolumeSwenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)ITBM and ITVMSCTR RankingBear Market Rules

S&P 500 Approaches 100-Day Moving Average: Is Now an Attractive Time to Buy Stocks?

What a difference a week makes.Last week, the stock market changed its tune from up, up, up,... to up, down, up, down. That made it feel like investors were uncertain, yet the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) wasn't high enough to confirm the fear. This week, the market's singing another tune emphasizing the word "down." This week, the selling pressure was more dominant, especially in the Tech sector. Does this mean the bear is coming out of hibernation?The Macro EnvironmentWe heard comments from two Federal Reserve Presidents, John Williams and Austan Goolsbee, who left open the possibility of a rate hike. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested interest rates could remain higher for longer. Next week, we'll get the March PCE data, and, in light of the Fed comments, it could be higher than estimates.We'll also get the Q1 GDP, which will probably reveal the continued strength of the US economy. If the economy continues to be resilient, we may not see a rate cut this year. As of now, the stock market has priced in at least one rate cut in 2024, which is different than the four that were expected earlier in the year.In a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, two events that could have intensified the selling pressure at the end of the week are:Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which, for the time being, have tapered.Options expiration day, which means heavy trading volume.Nobody wants to open new positions on a Friday, especially after a volatile trading week. Anything could happen over the weekend, and traders would rather be patient and wait to see if the stock market has further to fall before jumping in.The Broader MarketYou've heard the adage, "Markets take the stairs up and the elevator down." You can see this play out in the charts of the broader indexes.The S&P 500The S&P 500 ($SPX) closed below 5,000, a significant psychological level. On the daily chart, the index broke below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is now approaching its 100-day SMA. The last six days have been an elevator ride down and, the way the chart looks, there could be more selling next week.FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF THE S&P 500. Since the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day SMA, it's taken the elevator down. The index is now approaching its 100-day SMA, which could be its next support level. Will it fall below the support?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 is above its 50-week SMA, but has three consecutive down weeks, which doesn't paint a pretty picture. Right now, it looks as if the index has further to fall.The Dow Jones Industrial AverageAfter its most recent selloff, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is trading around a support level (December 2023 high). The daily chart below shows that even though the index closed higher on Friday, it hit resistance from its 100-day SMA.FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ($INDU). After its elevator ride down, $INDU appears to have hit a support level and trying to reverse, which is a positive sign.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.The Nasdaq CompositeThe Technology sector was hit hard this week. NVIDIA (NVDA) fell over 9% on Friday; Tesla (TSLA) shares continued to fall, hitting a new 52-week low; and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell over 5%.Super Micro Computers (SMCI), which has been in the top 5 StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) for months, fell over 23%. The selloff was caused by the company's decision not to preannounce its earnings results as it has in the past.Looks like investors were taking their Tech stock profits. As a result of the big Tech selloff, the Nasdaq Composite is trading below its 100-day SMA (see chart below).FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. After falling below its 100-day SMA, the Nasdaq Composite could slide to its 200-day SMA. The small wick at the bottom is slightly encouraging, but next week is another week.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Whenever there's a massive selloff, as was the case this week, investors question whether the market has hit a bottom and if it's an ideal time to open long positions. There was a little bit of that on Friday, but every time the market rallied, it met pressure from sellers and the rally fizzled. When technicals still point lower, you may want to adopt a "wait and see" approach before entering long positions.Nobody knows what will happen next week, but tech companies will start reporting earnings, and that could lift the stock market.Some Bright SpotsAfter experiencing a plunge similar to that of the broader indexes, the Financial sector is showing signs of a reversal. The daily chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) below shows a possible reversal, although a series of higher highs and higher lows is needed before an uptrend can be established. XLF would need to break above.FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF (XLF). Looks like XLF will have to overcome the resistance from its 50-day moving average before its trend reverses.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Shares of Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) all traded higher on Friday. WFC's stock price reached a new all-time high. Precious metals, such as gold and silver, are trading higher. As geopolitical tensions arise, investors turn to these safe-haven investments.It was interesting to see the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) hit a high of 21.36, close to the 23 level it hit in October last year. But it pulled back and closed at 18.71. The higher volatility could have been because of options expiration.If you look at the chart of the Nasdaq Composite, you'll see that this coincided with the October selloff in Tech stocks. Will the broader markets follow a similar path, given Tech earnings start next week? We'll have to wait and see.The Bottom LineThis week's stock market action wasn't great, and while it's tempting to find bargains in stocks, it's[…]

Breakdown in Mega-Cap Growth Confirms Bear Phase

While our major equity benchmarks showed incredible strength in Q1 2024, breadth conditions have been deteriorating since mid-March. Despite the weakening breadth readings, and the initial breakdowns of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, leading growth names, including the formerly-described Magnificent 7 stocks, had remained in clearly-defined uptrends.This week, some of the top-performing stocks in the S&P 500 finally broke below their 50-day moving averages. While this signal on its own is not a sign of a market top, these breakdowns represent just one of the many clear signals that the bull market off the October 2023 low may be over.Today, we'll briefly review some of the early breakdowns in the mega-cap growth space, how some of the top-ranked SCTR stocks have shown recent weakness, and why the "Fantastic Four" (current front-runner to replace the "Magnificent 7 moniker) breaking down may represent a key confirmation for a new bear phase.The Early Breakdowns: Apple (AAPL) & Tesla (TSLA)Tesla has been in a confirmed downtrend since July 2023, and Apple has appeared in a weak technical configuration since failing to break above the $200 level in December and January. But both charts have literally and figuratively made a new low this week.Note how both charts have remained below downward-sloping 50-day moving averages since mid-January. Also observe how both have shown failed attempts to break above that moving average in recent months. When stocks are making lower lows and lower highs, and trending below downward-sloping moving averages, I've learned it's best to avoid taking action until some of those conditions start to change. Ready to talk market breadth indicators? Our next free webinar, Breaking Down Breadth, will focus on breadth conditions now vs. previous market tops. Join me on Tuesday, April 23rd at 1pm ET as we review the current market environment through the lens of breadth indicators, compare them to conditions at previous market tops, and discuss the likelihood of further drawdowns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Sign up HERE for this free webcast!As these stocks broke down, diverging from most other leading growth names, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 pushed much higher. So let's see some of the stocks that served as leadership in Q1.The Top-Ranked SCTRs: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) & MicroStrategy (MSTR)Here, we have two names that were less well-known until they experienced exponential gains earlier this year. And while they certainly appeared overextended in March, they have now both come right down to earth.From the end of 2023 to their peaks in March 2024, SMCI and MSTR gained 350% and 175%, respectively. They both were a far distance from moving average support, giving clear signs of overbought conditions. So far in April, both stocks have traded much lower, and they each finished this week below their 50-day moving averages.It's normal for stocks in strong uptrends to pull back and test moving average support. Indeed, the 50-day moving average often serves as a potential entry point for a "buy on the dips" strategy. But when top performers fail to hold this crucial short-term support level, I have found that it often implies a broader move to more risk-off positioning.What about the best of the biggest--in other words, the most magnificent of the Magnificent 7?The Fantastic Four Breakdowns: Netflix (NFLX) & Amazon (AMZN)That brings us to perhaps the most concerning development this week. As I recently posted on my social media accounts, "As long as $AMZN and $NFLX remain above the 50-day moving average, you can make an argument for ‘short-term pullback' as opposed to ‘protracted and painful decline.'" Unfortunately, this week, we finally observed this breakdown of breakdowns.Mega-cap growth stocks wield an outsized influence on our top-heavy growth-dominated equity benchmarks. In recent weeks, bearish momentum divergences, weakening breadth conditions, and breaks of "line in the sand" support levels had us thinking market weakness over market strength. But the resilience of the Fantastic Four stocks gave us just a glimmer of hope that a pullback may be limited.Given this week's breakdown in the charts of previous top performers, we feel this just may be the beginning of the great bear phase of Q2 2024.RR#6,DaveP.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!David Keller, CMTChief Market StrategistStockCharts.comDisclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

How to Chart In Multiple Timeframes Like A PRO

On this week's edition of StockCharts TV's StockCharts in Focus, Grayson shows you how to chart the same symbol in multiple timeframes with ease using ChartStyles and StyleButtons. Learn how to customize multiple charts with the periods and ranges that fit with your system and then set those for one-click access with conveniently located StyleButtons just to the left of your charts. This workflow booster will instantly enhance your analysis and strengthen your perspective for the symbols you're researching.This video originally premiered on April 19, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV.See how you can save over 35% OFF with our limited-time 25th Anniversary Sale that just launched on StockCharts. Visit https://StockCharts.com/special to learn more and sign up now!You can view all previously recorded episodes of StockCharts in Focus at this link.

Charts Flashing "No Go" for S&P 500!

In this edition of StockCharts TV's The Final Bar, Dave welcomes guest Tyler Wood, CMT of GoNoGo Charts. Tyler walks through their proprietary momentum model which confirms a bearish rotation for the major equity benchmarks yet a bullish rotation for the commodity space. David walks through key earnings names including LVS, NFLX, and more.This video originally premiered on April 18, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

META Stock in Limbo: What You Need to Know Before the Next Big Price Swing

Meta Platforms Inc. (META), the social media giant formerly known as Facebook, has been in tight consolidation at the top of its range for a little over a month. Following a 23% rise in February after its Q4 earnings, trading volume for the stock has declined significantly. Market participants are now looking for any catalyst that could guide the stock's movement.Analyst Price Predictions Show Wide VariationIf you're undecided as to whether you're bullish or bearish on Meta, you're not alone, as the blogosphere will show you a wide range of analyst price predictions for the next 12 months. The highest price target is at $610, average consensus is at $489, and the lowest price targets average around $272.Yet, consensus ratings lean from "Buy" to "Strong Buy."What's New with Meta? It's New AI RolloutThe bullish outlook is driven by its new AI app, Meta AI, which aims to boost user engagement across WhatsApp, Instagram, Facebook, and Messenger by providing advanced AI capabilities such as animations and image generation. Supported by partnerships with Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), Meta AI will likely see ad revenue growth, prompting analysts to raise their stock price targets.A Macro Look at MetaCHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF META. Hovering at record highs, Meta's uptrend appears to be leaning toward the parabolic side of things, prompting investors to wonder whether such a trajectory is sustainable. The 13-week SMA represents one quarter.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Having gone the distance to bounce off its 2022 lows, Meta began outperforming the S&P 500 just this year, now besting the broader market by 37%.However, before even matching the broader market. Meta's technicals—as shown by its StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) score—have been remarkably strong (with a score above the 90-line) since the end of 2022.The 13-week simple moving average, representing one quarter, appears to be a consistent proxy for support and resistance. You will want to watch that line when looking at Meta using a weekly chart.A Near-Term View of Meta's Price ActionAnalyst consensus may be largely bullish, and the Meta AI rollout is prompting Wall Street to raise price targets upward, with some going as high as $610. However, right now, we're seeing a rectangle pattern and, technically, Meta's price can go either direction, at least in the near term (see chart below).CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF META. The momentum, or lack thereof, says a lot. Investors are probably waiting for the META's next earnings report, scheduled for April 24.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.Mind the Rectangle: If you're looking to take action upon a breakout, set a price alert at $481 near the bottom and $531 near the top of the formation.Mind the Momentum: Fundamental forecasts may be bullish, but the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) will tell you that selling pressure is currently far greater, though there isn't that much activity, bullish or bearish, taking place right now. And why not?Earnings Coming Up: Meta's last earnings report catapulted the stock to record highs. The next earnings date is on April 24. You'll likely see more activity occurring close to Meta's earnings date. So pay close attention to this.Support Levels: If Meta's earnings are so-so but not bad enough to invalidate its longer-term bullish thesis (AI rollout), or if its price breaks below the current rectangle formation and the 50-day simple moving average (causing it to trade technically toward the downside), then note the wide support range projected via the Ichimoku Cloud. If the bullish fundamental thesis holds out, buyers will likely jump in within the cloud.The Bottom LineMeta's long-term prospects look bullish, much of which is being driven by the optimistic expectations surrounding its AI rollout, Meta AI. Still, it seems poised for a correction, though its chart formation indicates it can go either way. Watch out for any catalysts that could influence the stock's trajectory as the next earnings date approaches. And if Meta does take a dip, keep an eye on that cloud, should the bullish fundamental outlook persist.Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.