Escaping Mao Zedong's China & Weijian Shan's Private Equity Empire
BRIAN PRICE: Shan, thank you so much for joining us on Real Vision. WEIJIAN SHAN: Pleasure. BRIAN PRICE: So in studying your life, growing up in the shadow of Mao's China, to doing hard labor in the Gobi Desert, to making your way to the US, earning your masters, your MBA, your PhD, to becoming a managing director at JPMorgan, to now being CEO of PAG, where you oversee $30 billion, you've led an incredible life. But I want to hear it from you. Talk to me a little bit about how you came up and how you became the success that you are today. WEIJIAN SHAN: I'm not quite sure if I would call where I am today as a success. I'm still trying very hard. But I didn't choose my life. It was chosen for me, especially growing up in China during that period of time. You know, I wrote this book. It's a recount of history-- the most horrible part of Chinese history that I lived through. And my story is rather unique, and also very representative of my generation. And at that time, there was not much choice. You just did whatever you were told to do, or you were assigned to do. And I was sent to the Gobi Desert. It was not until the end of the so-called cultural revolution in 1976 when everything came to an end. China, in 1979, opened up, established a relationship-- diplomatic relationship-- with America under Jimmy Carter. And the next year, I had an opportunity to come to America to study. That's how it happened. After that, I had some choices-- choices of which school to go, choices of what to study. And it was in this country I find choices. BRIAN PRICE: You oversee $30 billion. You're one of the world's most respected investors out of Asia. WEIJIAN SHAN: That's dwarfed by American private equity firms like Blackstone. BRIAN PRICE: Fair enough. And they are one of your backers. WEIJIAN SHAN: Yes. BRIAN PRICE: Along with several US pension funds. WEIJIAN SHAN: We're grateful to them for their trust. BRIAN PRICE: So I want to take a step back and talk about how you got to where you are, success or not. Because I want folks to understand when I say the Gobi Desert. And your book, Out of the Gobi, discusses, in large part, leaving Mao's China to have to do hard labor in the desert. Talk to me about that hard labor. What was that? What was that like? How did that shape you to become the man you are today? WEIJIAN SHAN: School came to the end for me when I was 12, when I finished elementary school. The country was in chaos. Schools were shut for about 10 years. And when I was 15, I, together with my friends, classmates, were sent to the Gobi Desert. We had to do very hard labor. We were told to grow crops in the desert. Now, you can imagine how hard that is. And not surprisingly, we were not too successful, talking about success. We had to build huts-- shelters for ourselves-- because there was no place to live. I made bricks. That was a backbreaking job. We had to work 16, sometimes 18 hours a day. Backbreaking. And some people became sick and permanently disabled. It was very cold in wintertime-- something like minus 10 in wintertime. The bad part is that that's the temperature inside and out. There's no heating. There is no fuel. The only fuel available was dried cow dung-- cow manure-- which we collected and burned for 10, 15 minutes before we got into bed-- if you can call it a bed-- every night. That was the only source of heating, and, otherwise, minus 10 inside and out. If there's a blizzard, to go out to the outhouse was life threatening. It was a big risk that you would have to take. And don't ask me how we coped with that. So when I first came to this country, I hear people talk about this expression. If they don't agree with each other, they say, bullshit. And I would think to myself, that thing used to be very dear to me. And that was the only source of heating that we had. So to this day, I like to sit by a fireplace, because we experienced so much cold. And that life didn't come to an end until about six years later. And of course, the worst thing during that period of time was starvation. There was never enough food to eat. If you looked at me, I'd probably look emaciated to you. And that was the starvation from that time. BRIAN PRICE: And then you were able to teach yourself math by candlelight, if I'm not mistaken. WEIJIAN SHAN: I did, in an unsystematic way. I just read whatever books I could lay my hands on. And there was no school, as I mentioned, for 10 years. So very few people bothered to read, to study. And in fact, all the books were banned. Reading was frowned upon. I got into trouble by doing it. But at the end of it, I was somewhat educated, because I didn't give up. And eventually, I was able to obtain a formal education, including a PhD the from UC Berkeley. So when I look at the kids today, especially in this country, I think they are so privileged. They have the education. Unfortunately, many people take that for granted. We couldn't. It was a privilege that we didn't have. But studying, reading, got me where I am today. Had I given up, like most of my peers at the time, I would not have had a job at this particular point, as most of my friends have long lost their jobs. When China opened up, they didn't have any skills to obtain any decent jobs. Because for 10 years, there was no education. So education, to me, is the most important thing. It gets you to where you need to be, or where you want to be, especially in this country. BRIAN PRICE: So teaching yourself math, teaching yourself English, to then getting your education in the US and eventually becoming a professor at Wharton. In your wildest dreams, did you ever think that such things could be possible? And do you think, outside of America, that type of dream is possible? Or is this something that, only in America, could happen? WEIJIAN SHAN: At that time, I didn't have any dreams. Because we were told to take root in the Gobi Desert. So I was prepared to spend the rest of my life in that place. But I also told myself, I have to prepare myself. My philosophy in life is to be always prepared. I believe that, sometimes, you just don't have opportunity to get anywhere. But when the opportunity comes, if you're not prepared to grasp it, it's your fault. If opportunity never comes your way, then it's not your fault. So America is where, as long as you want to get to some place, I think the opportunities are more or less equal. It's not completely equal, to be honest. But it's more or less equal. I came to this country without money, without money to pay for tuition. A professor donated money to cover my tuition. And eventually, many kind people helped me to get a formal education. So I'm very fortunate to benefit from the generosity of ordinary people in this country and from America itself. Now, China has opened up. So there's more equal opportunities for ordinary people to get to some place. But that was not the case 40 years ago, when China was still very much closed under a different system. BRIAN PRICE: You studied under Janet Yellen almost four decades ago. WEIJIAN SHAN: I did, 36 years ago, when I first met with her. BRIAN PRICE: And she, in fact, wrote the foreword to your new book. WEIJIAN SHAN: She was very kind to have done so. BRIAN PRICE: What did you learn from her, both as a student, and then through your career? WEIJIAN SHAN: Well, she was a very meticulous scholar. And she was very careful. And she guided me through my PhD program and provided a lot of counsel. And I wouldn't have done as well as I did without her guidance. And one thing I learned from her is to be very considerate when it comes to decision making. BRIAN PRICE: As far as what you see today with the Fed, what would your advice be to them, if Jay Powell was to call you, in terms of their approach for 2019? What's your outside observation? WEIJIAN SHAN: I am a very strong believer that the Fed should be independent, should be kept independent. And if you look at the Central Bank in China, it is not so independent. It is very much under the central government's control, which I don't think is good, especially for a market economy. So I wouldn't second guess what Jay Powell will do. But obviously, the market is quite concerned about the interest rate and whether or not it's going to go up too quickly. And I think, looking at what the Fed has done in the past year, it has done a pretty good job. But I think, instead of blaming Jay Powell for rising interest rates in America, which probably is necessary over a period of time, given all the QEs in the past almost decade., I think America could thank China for a low interest rate. BRIAN PRICE: Thank China for a low interest rate? WEIJIAN SHAN: Yes. BRIAN PRICE: Drill down on that for me a little bit. WEIJIAN SHAN: Well, see, the federal government debt today is about $20 trillion. That's about one times GDP. Who buys that debt? Who is the biggest holder of US government bonds? It's China. Is $1.1 trillion. If China doesn't buy US debt, then the interest rate would be a lot higher in this country. That's what I mean. BRIAN PRICE: With that in mind, I've spoken to some investors in the past-- names like Carson Block-- who are highly skeptical of the business practices of China, both in public and private markets. What would your message be to folks like those who doubt the credibility of China? What would you say to them? WEIJIAN SHAN: There is a good reason to be skeptical. The Chinese economy is a very complicated one. I think of the Chinese economy as having two parts-- one bad economy and one good economy. If you look at the problems that China has, it's a massive amount of overcapacity. And so much, in fact, China operates with about 78%-- at this particular point, probably 76%-- capacity utilization rate. In the United States, in 2008, in the middle of a financial crisis, when the employment rate was more than 10%, the capacity utilization rate was 78%-- higher than China today. That's how much overcapacity there is in China. And that's why Chinese goods are so cheap. Because there is overcompetition. And that's the bad economy. And manufacturing is very much part of it. But there is also a good economy. And that is the consumption part. Those are the businesses which cater to private consumption, which has been rising at a pace faster than economic growth rate. Even at a slowed down rate, China grew 6.5% a year. And private consumption has grown at a higher rate than that. So that's where you need to focus your investment attention to, not the bad economy. [INAUDIBLE], by the way, is part of the bad economy. BRIAN PRICE: You've invested in everything from gas production to a dating service. WEIJIAN SHAN: You have done your homework. BRIAN PRICE: Thank you. WEIJIAN SHAN: But not gas production, industrial gas. BRIAN PRICE: Industrial gas. WEIJIAN SHAN: Which means oxygen, nitrogen, carbon. Not natural gas. BRIAN PRICE: I see. Important to make that distinction. WEIJIAN SHAN: So if we make semiconductors, we need specialty gas. BRIAN PRICE: Interesting. WEIJIAN SHAN: If you make steel, for example, you will need oxygen. And there are nitrogen cars. So we need specialty gas. BRIAN PRICE: So it's a wide spectrum of things that you've invested in in China. Where's the opportunity right now? Where are you putting part of that $6 billion fund that you just got up and running? WEIJIAN SHAN: I just mentioned the good economy. And that is businesses which cater to private consumption. I would say, by and large, that's where you should put your money into. But China is where there's a lot of capital. There's too much money. China has grown in the past 20 years by investing a lot-- about 50% of GDP. No other country at any time in history at any stage in its industrialization process has invested even close to 35% of GDP. And China has been doing so at 50% of GDP. So there's a lot of capital, because China also uniquely has the highest savings rate in the world-- about 50% GDP. Savings rate roughly equals to investment rate. And given so much capital, there's always too much competition. So if you make money, everybody else would want to do the same thing. And the only way for you to sustain profitability to protect your business is to invest in businesses which have some meaningful entry barriers, such as brand name technology and market share. If it's just a very hot sector, then it may look hot today, but you may not make money tomorrow. Because all the money will flood in and it will bring that profitability down. BRIAN PRICE: You recently wrote an op-ed in "The New York Times" discussing Apple's recent earnings. WEIJIAN SHAN: Yes. It was printed, in fact, only yesterday. BRIAN PRICE: And one of the things you point to is perhaps a misguided view of China's relationship with US companies, not just in tech, but with autos, box office. And that stems from film. Talk to me a little bit about what you believe to be misconceptions when it comes to China's relationship with US businesses, and why, perhaps, that relationship needs to be reset, in a sense. WEIJIAN SHAN: Yeah. I think China, for the past two decades, has been perceived as the factory of the world, justifiably. For a long time, that was what China was doing-- making products, selling to the world market. But that has changed dramatically, especially in the past 10 years. In 2006, exports as a percentage of GDP peaked in China to about 36%. And today, it's only about 19%. What has happened is that China is shifting away from this investment-driven growth model to more private consumption driven growth. And today, consumption accounts for about 80% of China's economic growth. Last year, it was 6.5%. 80% of that comes from private consumption. So China now is very much a big market for everyone-- for Apple, which sells 20% of its sales-- about $50 billion-- in China. For Qualcomm, 65% of its sales. Skyworks, 80% of its sales is in China. Corning, 20%. Starbucks, 20% in China. So it has become almost like a market of the world, as opposed to being factory of the world. That's a fundamental shift. China's consumption today-- private consumption-- is about $5 trillion. So every company will have to look at that market not as a source of manufacturing, but more as a market where you can sell your products to. BRIAN PRICE: With the progress that's been made in China, what's the future hold, in your opinion, for the relationship between the US and China? What do you think is to come between these two economies, five years down the road, 10 years down the road? What are you looking at? WEIJIAN SHAN: I think that since Nixon visited China, especially since the formal diplomatic relationship in 1979-- this year-- this month, in fact-- is the 40th anniversary of that relationship-- both countries have benefited greatly from each other politically, geopolitically, and economically. There are frictions, as always happens in between two friends, between two people, between two countries. I think what is important is what has held the relationship together. And that is the common ground. What is common between the two countries? What is the common interest? What is the mutual benefit? I think that the two countries, in spite of their differences, will find a common ground to keep a strong relationship going forward. And there are too many common grounds to cover-- trade, economic relationship, China market, US market. You name it. BRIAN PRICE: What about competition? Because one of the things you note in your analysis of the situation right now, specifically when it comes to Apple, is that market share is shrinking for Apple. There are so many providers and competitors that are based in China, grown in China right now. Amid that competition, how can the two worlds work together? Or is that even possible? WEIJIAN SHAN: Well, we're talking about market economy. So there's always competition. Competition is good. Sometimes, a company comes on top. Sometimes, another company comes on top. If you look at Fortune 500 today, comparing it with 20 years ago, I would guess probably 2/3 of the companies on the list 20 years ago are no longer on the list today. So competition is normal. But if you look at Apple, for example, back in 2015, Samsung was the indisputable market leader in smartphones in China, with 27% market share. And Apple, the next year, in the first quarter of 2016, became the market leader, with about 14.5% market share. And then, in the second quarter of last year, Apple's market share came down to 7%. In the third quarter, it went up to 9%. So the competition is very intense. And I think the name of the game is innovation, technology, and a lot of hard work. Because it's a very big market. And if a model is successful, then China is a very big market. I can give you a example of it if you'd like to hear it. BRIAN PRICE: Sure. WEIJIAN SHAN: We just brought public a company by the name of Tencent Music Entertainment. It used to be called CMC, China Music Corporation. We invested in that company about, by now, five years ago, when it didn't have anything, other than license to copyrights for music, for scores, for record label, for lyrics-- currently, about 70% of China's digital music market. So we invested about $60 million, became a majority shareholder of that company. And the company got into a business very similar to Spotify, but just for China, because the copyrights just covered China market. We brought that company public last month in December on the New York Stock Exchange. You know where the market cap is today? $20 billion. If the same business model is used in a country like Singapore, with about 6, 7 million people, you wouldn't get anywhere. But in China, we have 800 million unique monthly active users. Where do you get that kind of customer base? 800 million. The country is just very big, like the United States. If the business model is successful, you can scale up, almost infinitely. And that's where you get your scale. That's where you get your value. And Tencent Music Corporation is a very good example of it. And you mentioned, earlier, I think before we started, we've also invested in a company called zhenai.com, which is a dating, matchmaking business. And that business is also doing very well, making about $50 million in EBITDA last year, and probably more than that. I was using somewhat dated data. Because last year's data is yet to be completed, finalized. It's a growing business, a very strong business. Because there are just too many people looking for mates. And with 1.4 billion in population, the market is just huge. BRIAN PRICE: You don't fear the repercussions of a trade war. You don't seem to fear the notion that China is among some of the worst performing markets recently. Your bullishness has not been affected. For folks that maybe are bearish on China, what would you tell them? How would you reassure them that this is a good investment for the long-term? WEIJIAN SHAN: In fact, I am probably the most risk-averse investor in the world. I'm very conservative. And my belief is, if you have now figured out the risk, then you shouldn't even think about the upside. And there is a risk with a trade war. I think every economist will say that trade is good. More trade is better than less trade. And trade war hurts everybody. But eventually, I think the countries will figure out a solution. And eventually, there will be an outcome, which I think will be even better than before the trade war, when both countries probably will open up more. Especially China will open up more to, let's say, American imports, which is not only good for America, but will also be good for China. Because China has developed not by being closed, as it was 40 years ago, when I was in the Gobi-- that's what I described in my book, Out of the Gobi-- but by opening up. So in a way, Chinese coming out of the Gobi to become a more open economy. But it's not open enough. In comparison with America, it has a long way to go. And if China can open up more for investments, for trade, that's good for China. That's good for America. That's good for the rest of the world. BRIAN PRICE: Up until this point-- and if you disagree with me or you disagree with the way I characterize this, obviously, feel free to correct me-- but has China, in any way, taken advantage of the US, whether through trade, whether through intellectual property, whether through something else altogether? Is that part of what's at the core of this issue that we're dealing with right now? WEIJIAN SHAN: There is no question that China has benefited tremendously from the open door policy from the entry into WTO from being able to have trade with the United States to be able to sell to American market. So that was a milestone. I remember, when the WTO deal was first signed, there was a lot of opposition within China against it. Many people thought that China was opening up too quickly and too much. But it turned out to be beneficial for China. And China, under WTO, was treated as a developing country. And therefore, there were certain preferential policies accorded to developing countries. But China now has become the second largest economy in the world. And therefore, the US has a point. They need to open their market more. And I think China should. BRIAN PRICE: You think China should. WEIJIAN SHAN: Yes. BRIAN PRICE: Interesting. Broadening out, because you obviously focus on China in your investing, but you look at all of Asia. Where else is there opportunity within Asia, outside of China, right now, in your opinion? WEIJIAN SHAN: Many Asian countries now have so much trade and business with China that, almost everywhere you turn, investment opportunities will have something to do with China. For example, Japan is a major economy-- third largest in the world. Now, probably about one third of China's size. 20 years ago, by the way, Japan was four times the size of the Chinese economy. Japan has been stagnant for probably about two decades by now. But Japan has very good products, very good technologies. And their products are household names in this country. Faced with a stagnant market, and the growth is from China. So the good products, good technology from Japan, tapping into the growth market in China is a very good play. And that's what we do. We invest in Japanese companies, help them sell their products in China, grow their business in China. And therefore, if you look at the entire Asia, whether it's Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, there are growth opportunities domestically. But they're also tied to the Chinese economy to some extent. BRIAN PRICE: Japan has also been a hard hit market. Is it fair to say that, as bullish as you are on China, you're equally as bullish on Japan, given how they intersect, in terms of their relationship with each other? WEIJIAN SHAN: Not so much. Not so much. PAG, as a private equity investor, is very interested in Japan. Because the Japanese businesses are world class businesses. They have good products and good technology. And Japan is also a very mature and very strong big market. But there's no growth over there. And the population is aging-- aging precipitously. And that's the problem for Japan. And the new policies-- when I say new-- when Shinzo Abe came to office and started structural reforms, really helping the Japanese economy, we have seen some modest growth coming out of Japan. But I think Japan needs to do more. And I think economic integration with China would help it. BRIAN PRICE: There's been a pretty well accepted notion for quite some time that the US president is the most powerful man in the world, as the leader of the free world. I spoke with Harald Malmgren recently who served as a senior advisor to four US presidents. And his notion is that that's no longer the case, that, given the current status of global economies, President Xi is, in fact, the most powerful man in the world. How would you approach a similar question, in that, who is the leader right now, in terms of being the most powerful? WEIJIAN SHAN: I would say that China's influence has increased. Especially economically, influence has increased. But when it comes to being the leader of the world, America remains the leader of the world. Presidential power is a different thing. You can't even get a wall built here in the United States. But on the world stage, of course , America remains the leader in many different ways, especially when it comes to the economy. BRIAN PRICE: Bringing it back to the US, we're obviously in the midst of a government shutdown that has 800,000 workers without a paycheck. We were talking before this interview about what your solution would be if one of the major Wall Street firms called you-- if Wells Fargo called you, if JPMorgan called you, if Bank of America called you and said, what should we do, or what could we do to help with this issue? What would you tell them? WEIJIAN SHAN: You know, when I first came to this country, the first business class I took, taught by a finance professor by the name of Bill Murray-- it's a different Bill Murray than the actor. He took out a dollar bill. BRIAN PRICE: That'd be an interesting business class, though. WEIJIAN SHAN: Right. Exactly. BRIAN PRICE: A little Caddyshack in there, yeah. WEIJIAN SHAN: Right. And he took out the dollar bill. And he says, you know it says, "In God, we trust." In America, in money we trust. And that was the first lesson I learned. Now, if you think about it, the US dollar, why it is worth more than the paper it is printed on, it is the full faith of the US government. It's the credit of the US government. So federal workers today are not paid. And they're owed by the US government-- the full credit of the US government. If I were a bank here, if I were JP Morgan, who, by the way, very nicely sponsored a dinner to introduce my book-- if I were Wells Fargo, if I were Bank of America, I would be very happy to lend to federal workers for owed pay by the federal government. Because ultimately, that's the credit of the US government. The full faith and credit of the US government-- that's promptly the best credit in the world. And there's no risk. And I will lend it to them at a very low interest rate. And you don't have to worry about how long the government is shut down-- for another three months or six months. Eventually, the US government will come through with the payment. So I wouldn't worry about that credit at all. And I think that's a good business to be in. If I were a bank here, I would offer that business right away. BRIAN PRICE: Because we are hearing the stories of folks that are living paycheck to paycheck already that are now going to be behind on rent, that are unable to get the medical services they were relying on. They're at risk. WEIJIAN SHAN: All you have to do-- banks will have to offer this-- is for the federal worker to assign the backed up pay to the bank, against which the banks will lend money to the borrower. And it's very good for the worker, for the borrower. It's very good for the bank. It's very good business. BRIAN PRICE: Well, we'll see what occurs in the next week or so, obviously, when this airs. But at the time of this conversation, we still have 800,000 folks who don't have the money that they need to get by. WEIJIAN SHAN: The government has never said that the money will not be paid. Eventually, it will be paid. And this country is very entrepreneurial. And I don't understand why nobody will step up to say, I will lend against the US government's credit. BRIAN PRICE: Have you had any conversations with executives at banks? WEIJIAN SHAN: No, but I led a number of transactions to buy banks back in 2000, when I was working at TPG. At that time, our franchise in Asia called Newbridge Capital. We bought control of Korea First Bank, which was the largest banking career. Failed in the financial crisis of '97-'98 in Asia. Nationalized by the government. We bought it from the government. And then, five years later, we bought control of Nationwide Bank in China. We made very good money out of them. And we bought some other banks as well. So we know banking very well. And this is the kind of credit we would be very happy to lend to if I owned a bank in this country. BRIAN PRICE: With that in mind, we've covered a lot of ground so far. We've covered the government shutdown, trade war, markets in Japan and China. Overall, in the global economy, where do you see the biggest red flags? Where is the biggest concern for you right now, in terms of what could disrupt the current market? WEIJIAN SHAN: In the market economy, as we all know-- and I don't have to say this-- we go through cycles. And China probably is the only country which has not gone into a recession in the past 40 years, and for peculiar reasons, only peculiar to China. In every other country in the market economy, like the United States, we go through cycles. And we have been on an up cycle for 10 years, since 2008. How much further can we go? My view is that the market and the economy probably have peaked. And therefore, there's a risk. You have seen that General Motors is shutting down seven factories. I think five of them are in the United States. So they see some hard time is coming. And I'll be prepared. BRIAN PRICE: So you think, as far as the auto industry is concerned-- we've heard rumblings about issues with GM, obviously. But you think the worst could be yet to come. WEIJIAN SHAN: I think you just have to think about the fact that the next phase of the cycle is going to be down cycle. And therefore, I think it's worth it to be a little bit more defensive when it comes to the investment. That's how we think about things. BRIAN PRICE: How would you approach taking a defensive stance? WEIJIAN SHAN: Well, I'm not a stock market investor. I'm a private equity investor. And in fact, the down cycle is good for us. Because valuation comes down and things get cheaper. For the stock market, you can hedge. You can buy defensive stocks. You can buy stocks which are not cyclical-- food, beverage. Health care would be another one. And you just have to be prepared. Because the up market doesn't go on forever. BRIAN PRICE: What are your ultimate goals for PAG, a year from now, five years from now? We discussed overseeing 30 billion. Do your goals pertain to, in terms of PE, what you're going to be overseeing in time to come, broadening out, looking beyond China and Asia? What are you looking at right now? WEIJIAN SHAN: We at PAG never think in those terms. We focus only on one thing. BRIAN PRICE: Tell me. WEIJIAN SHAN: And that is to make money for our LPs-- limited partners. The largest component of our LPs are from the United States-- state pension funds, corporate pension funds, from Canada, also large pension funds. And if you make money for your LPs, then the capital you manage, the money they gave you to manage will increase by itself. That's the after effect. If you think in terms of capital to grow your capital, then you wouldn't get anywhere. All you have to do is to focus on making good money, good returns for your LPs, for your investors. If you are able to do it, everything else follows. BRIAN PRICE: Well, we've covered the whole world. China-- WEIJIAN SHAN: We seem to have. BRIAN PRICE: --Japan, the Gobi Desert, the US, the government shutdown, the Fed, Janet Yellen, Trump, President Xi. What else is there left to say? WEIJIAN SHAN: I think we have covered a lot of ground. BRIAN PRICE: Well, Shan, I just want to thank you for joining us on Real Vision. It's been a fascinating journey. And I hope you'll join us again in the near future. WEIJIAN SHAN: Thank you very much. The pleasure's all mine. BRIAN PRICE: Well, where else could we have traveled from Mao's China to the Gobi Desert to the US and then back to China amid a trade war? And amid the challenges presented, where else could we find the optimism that Shan has when it comes to global markets in the future? Whether you agree with his views or not, the journey was fascinating. Thank you so much for watching. For Real Vision, I'm Brian Price.