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IMFs Japan Mission Chief: Weak yens impact on Japans economic growth is net positive

Apr 19, 2024 | 10:14 am

The IMFs Japan MIssion Chief says:Weak yen's impact on Japan's economic growth is net positiveBank of Japan will likely have room to raise interest rates further, though future tightening must be gradual and data-dependentWhen asked if recent yen moves justify foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities, IMF's Japan mission chief says she firmly believes G7 nations, including Japan, are committed to flexible FX regimes This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count 511 vs 506 last week

Apr 19, 2024 | 10:05 am

The weekly Baker Hughes rig count data shows:Oil rigs vs 511 vs 506 last weekNatural Gas rigs 106 vs 109 last weekTotal rigs 619 vs 617 last weekCrude oil is trading up $0.31 at $82.41. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

European indices close the week with mixed results

Apr 19, 2024 | 09:57 am

While US stocks, the major European indices are more mixed today and this week. For the day:German DAX, -0.56%France CAC, point changedUK's FTSE 100 +0.24%Spain's Ibex -0.33%Italy's FTSE MIB +0.12%For the trading week:German DAX, -1.08%France CAC,+0.14%UK FTSE 100, -1.25%Spain's Ibex, +0.41%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.47%By comparison, the broader US stock indices are sharply lower:S&P index -2.77% - it's worst weeks since September 2023.NASDAQ index -5.01% - it's worst week since a -5.65% decline in the week of October 31, 2022 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Rebel GOP Rep. Gosar backs push to oust Speaker Johnson

Apr 19, 2024 | 09:34 am

The votes are building for the ousting of House Speaker Mike Johnson.Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) announced his co-sponsorship of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) resolution to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from his position.Gosar, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, expressed his support shortly after the House passed a foreign aid package without border security measures, which was supported by Democrats.In his statement, Gosar criticized the lack of attention to border security and accused the current Speaker of prioritizing the interests of what he described as warmongers and the military industrial complex over national interests.Gosar is the third Republican to support the resolution, following Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) who endorsed it earlier.So what does it take to oust the Speaker of the House?To vote out the Speaker of the House in the United States, the process generally involves a motion or resolution being presented to the House of Representatives calling for a vote of no confidence or a vote to vacate the chair. Here’s how it typically works:Introduction of the Motion: A member of the House would need to introduce a motion or resolution to declare the office of the Speaker vacant. This is sometimes referred to as a "motion to vacate the chair."Scheduling the Vote: The motion would then need to be scheduled for a vote. The scheduling can be immediate or could take some time, depending on the rules of the House and the decisions by the House leadership.Majority Vote Required: For the motion to pass, a majority of the voting members must vote in favor of it. This means that more than half of the members present and voting must agree to remove the Speaker.Political Considerations: Such a motion is highly political and can be contentious. It generally reflects significant dissatisfaction with the Speaker's leadership either from within their own party or from the opposition. It is relatively rare due to the potential for significant political fallout and the disruption it can cause within the House.Outcome: If the motion passes, the office of the Speaker becomes vacant, and the House would then proceed to elect a new Speaker. If the motion fails, the Speaker remains in office. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

IMF's Georgieva: Need to finish the job on inflation

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:50 am

IMF meetings have been taking place this week and IMF Georgieva is speaking. She says:Central bankers need to finish the job with inflationAgees on the two rebel fiscal policy buffers, revive medium-term growth prospectswe need to address the challenges of rising debt, which is particularly severe in some countriesIMF reforms to debt restructuring process should make it smoother and speedier.Nothing new here. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Fed's Goolsbee: Makes sense to wait to get more clarity before moving

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:39 am

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee argued on Friday that it would make sense to wait to get more clarity on the inflation outlook before taking a policy step.

Gold price sets for fifth straight weekly gain as Middle East tensions loom

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:34 am

Gold price (XAU/USD) faces pressure to recapture new all-time highs around $2,430 in Friday’s early New York session.

IMF Kammer: ECB needs to be ready to be tighter, or looser, on my care policy

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:31 am

IMF Kammer is now speaking on Europe and says:"Tit for tat" on trade and subsidies will be very distracting for European economy, structural reforms neededwe are expecting gradual reduction in policy rates.ECB needs to be ready to be tighter, or looser, on monetary policy based on uncertainties.If tightening path for US diverges from baseline, there is upside risk for European inflationMore comments:US inflation driven by demand, EU inflation driven by energy price shocks.EUs disinflation driven by fall in energy prices, supply chain disruptions easing and affects of monetary policy This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling rebounds as fears of Middle East tensions escalating further ease

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:27 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) finds a temporary support near almost five-month low around 1.2400 in Friday’s early American session.

BoE's Ramsden: Risks to persistence in domestic inflation pressures are receding

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:22 am

"I have become more confident in the evidence that risks to persistence in domestic inflation pressures are receding," Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden on Friday, per Reuters.

AUD/USD holds recovery above 0.6400 as US Dollar dips

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:20 am

The AUD/USD pair holds gains above the round-level support of 0.6400 in Friday’s early New York session.

USD/JPY goes on a roller-coaster ride prompted by geopolitical risk

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:19 am

USD/JPY is trading in the 154.50s on Friday after declining to a low for the day in the 153.00s on the back of a spike in safe-haven demand that disproportionately favored the Japanese Yen (JPY).

IMF: Soft landing for European economies is in reach, but not insured

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:16 am

The IMF European regional report is out and says:Soft landing for European economies is in reach but not assured - High-debt European economies should consolidate fiscal policy faster than currently envisagedMonetary policy in advanced Europe needs to match unfolding conditions, easing neither too fast nor too slowCentral banks in the rest of Europe will need to maintain tight policy for longer to fully reel in inflation Trying to fix competitiveness problems through a subsidy race with trading partners will do more harm than goodThe EURUSD is pushing to new highs for the day in the early US session, and is testing the high of its sewing area between 1.0655 to 1.0675. Move above and stay above is more bullish for the pair. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Oil steady around weekly low while markets are unwinding risk premium over tension in Middle East

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:40 am

Oil prices are dropping lower with markets having assessed the situation as less risky than first expected, after Israel retaliated against Iran by attacking targets in the Western of the country, two US officials confirmed

US Dollar slides lower with markets reversing safe have inflows on Middle Eastern tensions

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:37 am

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies, eases and gives up earlier gains driven by the reports of the attack from Israel on Iran, confirmed by US officials.

US major indices open mixed. Major indices on pace for a down week

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:35 am

The major indices are opening mixed. The NASDAQ is lower. The Dow is higher. The S&P is in between but marginally lower. The NASDAQ index is being impacted by Netflix which is down over 6.5% after reporting earnings and revenues better-than-expected but with soft guidance. Shares of Nvidia and Super Micro Computers are also lower. Super Micro Computers set its earning date, but did not preannounce positive earnings projections. In the past they have preempted their earnings with positive comments. SMCI shares are currently down -4.4%. Nvidia shares are trading down -0.75%.A snapshot of the market currently shows:Dow industrial average is trading up 100 points or 0.26% at 37878S&P index up 0.32 points or 0.01% at 5011.38NASDAQ index down -51 points or -0.33% 15551The small-cap Russell 2000 down -3.58 points or -0.18% at 1939.34For the trading week, the major indices are lower. The S&P is on pace for its third straight weekly decline. The NASDAQ is on its fourth week lower and largest decline since March 2023.:Dow Industrial Average-0.34%S&P index -2.26%NASDAQ index -3.89%In the US debt market, yields are lower:2-year yield 4.977%, -1.3 basis points5-year yield 4.655%, -3.0 basis points10 year yield 4.604%, -4.3 basis points30-year yield 4.699%, -4.6 basis pointslooking at other markets:Crude oil is trading down $-0.62 at $81.48.Gold is trading near unchanged at $2378.25Bitcoin is trading higher at $64,780 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD side-steps geopolitical volatility to trade little changed

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:34 am

USD/CAD is trading in the 1.3750s after edging lower on Friday.

EUR/USD recovers after initially selling off on Middle East tensions

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:25 am

EUR/USD is trading in the lower 1.0600s at the time of writing, after recovering slightly from an early bout of weakness.

Mexican Peso recovers after strong Retail Sales data

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:22 am

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading in the 17.30s on Friday after an extremely volatile 24 hours in which the currency depreciated by over five percentage points in some pairs as a result of a mass exodus to safety.

Lagarde speech: Risks to inflation outlook are two-sided

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:13 am

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde reiterated on Friday that it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction if the inflation criteria are met, per Reuters.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Defends crucial support of 0.5860

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:55 am

The NZD/USD pair turns sideways slightly below 0.5900 in Friday’s European session after recovering sharply from the crucial support of 0.5860.

US stocks trade back near unchanged as the declines in pre-market are erased

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:49 am

The major US stock indices have erased their declines of the Israeli territory strike against Iran. The S&P and Dow Industrial Average traded mostly in positive territory. They are trading above and below unchanged at the moment. Price action remains volatile. The opening is still 40 minutes away. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: What are the breakout levels of the three-month range?

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:47 am

EUR/GBP price is in a sideways trend which has unfolded over three months.

Weekly Market Recap (15-19 April)

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:27 am

MondayOver the weekend, Iran launched its retaliatory attack against Israel with drones and ballistic missiles. There were no casualties and 99% of the attack was neutralised. Iran eventually said that the matter could be deemed concluded. There was some initial risk on sentiment, but things turned around pretty soon as Israel pledged to retaliate. Eventually, Israel did retaliate on Friday night although the attack seemed limited based on various reports and Iran downplayed the airstrikes. This should have put an end to this episode, and we should go back focusing on macro. ECB’s Villeroy (neutral – voter) confirmed the incoming rate cuts:Barring a surprise, we should decide on the first cut at our next meeting on June 6.I’m more confident about the downward trajectory of inflation.Our cut early June will have to be followed by other cuts by year-end.The New Zealand March Services PMI plummeted back into contraction:Services PMI 47.5 vs. 53.0 prior.Long-term average is 53.4.BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel:“Combining today’s weak PSI activity with last week’s similarly weak PMI activity, yields a composite reading that would be consistent with GDP falling below by more than 2% compared to year earlier levels. That is much weaker than what folk are forecasting”.The PBoC left the MLF rate unchanged at 2.50% as expected.ECB’s Simkus (hawk – voter) said that a rate cut was also possible in July.The Eurozone February Industrial Production came in line with expectations:Industrial Production M/M 0.8% vs. 0.8% expected and -3.0% prior (revised from -3.2%).Industrial Production Y/Y -6.4% vs. -5.7% expected and -6.6% prior (revised from -6.7%).ECB’s Rehn (hawk – voter) confirmed that rates could be lowered in June if inflation slows as expected:Inflation is converging towards ECBs 2% target.Monetary restraint is continuing to reduce inflation and impact the real economy.Although ECB rates are at levels that are making substantial contributions to ongoing disinflation process, we no longer see need to maintain them at current levels for a long duration.Provided we are confident inflation will continue converging to our 2% target in a sustained way, the time will be right in June to start easing the monetary policy stance and to cut rates.This assumes there will be no further setbacks in the geopolitical situation and thus in energy prices.ECB’s Kazimir (hawk – voter) confirmed a rate cut in June but stayed clear from pre-committing to anything beyond then:ECB can cut rates in June given persistent fall in inflation; restriction can be gradually reduced.ECB not committing to any policy path beyond June.Economic recovery taking hold, will accelerate in H2.ECB’s Lane (dove – voter) stressed about the need to get wage growth in check:Deceleration in wage growth is necessary to get inflation to target.Wage pressures are gradually moderating but remain elevated.While services inflation should decline somewhat in the near term, it is expected to remain relatively elevated for most of the year.Headline inflation is expected to fluctuate around current levels in the near term.It should be recognized that the current phase of disinflation is necessarily bumpy.The US March Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures:Retail Sales M/M 0.7% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.9% prior (revised from 0.6%).Retail Sales Y/Y 4.0% vs. 2.1% prior (revised from 1.5%).Ex-autos M/M 1.1% vs. 0.5% expected and 0.6% prior (revised from 0.3%).Control group 1.1% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.3% prior (revised from 0.0%).Retail sales ex gas and autos 1.0% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%).Fed’s Williams (neutral – voter) didn’t change his view about inflation as he still sees a path to the 2% target:Overall economy will continue to grow this year around 2%.Consumer spending has been strong.There are tailwinds from the supply side of the economy.I don't see the recent inflation data as turning point.Markets are taking slower inflation progress into account.I'm data dependent as always.The US March NAHB Housing Market Index came in line with expectations:NAHB Housing Market Index 51 vs. 51 expected and 51 prior.TuesdayFed’s Daly (neutral – voter) didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front as she just echoed others in supporting a patient stance:Recent inflation data was not surprising.Inflation bumps along the way isn't particularly surprising.Don't want to end up with too-strong, or too-weak policy response.Worst thing to do is act urgently when urgency isn't necessary.Inflation above target, need to be confident it's on the way to target before can react.No urgency to cut rates.Can't just look at published information, that's backwards looking.Economy growing at a solid rate, labour market is still strong, inflation above target.Our progress on inflation has been significant, but we are still not there yet.We don't know if R-star (more commonly written by the economists as r*) has risen.It’s reasonable to think r* is between 0.5 and 1.Labor force supply increase would be an upside surprise, but I can't count on it to make policy.The Chinese Q1 GDP beat expectations:GDP Y/Y 5.3% vs. 5.0% expected and 5.2% prior.GDP Q/Q 1.6% vs. 1.2% prior (revised from 1.0%).The Chinese March Retail Sales missed expectations:Retail Sales Y/Y 3.1% vs. 4.5% expected and 5.5% prior.The Chinese March Industrial Production missed expectations:Industrial Production 4.5% vs. 5.4% expected and 7.0% prior.The UK Labour Market report missed expectations although the wage growth figures remained strong:Unemployment rate 4.2% vs 4.0% expected and 4.0% prior (revised from 3.9%).Employment change -156K vs. 58K expected and -21K prior.Average weekly earnings 5.6% vs. 5.5% expected and 5.6% prior.Average weekly earnings (ex-bonus) 6.0% vs. 5.8% expected and 6.1% prior.March payrolls change -67K vs. -18K prior (revised from 20K).The Canadian March CPI came mostly in line with expectations across the board with further easing in the underlying inflation measures:CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs. 2.8% prior. CPI M/M 0.6% vs. 0.7% expected and 0.3% prior.Core CPI Y/Y 2.0% vs. 2.1% prior.Core CPI M/M 0.5% vs. 0.1% prior.Core CPI M/M SA -0.1% vs. 0.0% prior (revised from -0.1%).Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y 3.1% vs. 3.2% expected and 3.2% prior.Median CPI Y/Y 2.8% vs. 3.0% expected and 3.0% prior (revised from 3.1%).Common CPI Y/Y 2.9% vs. 3.1% prior.The US March[…]

ForexLive European FX news wrap: A round trip for markets as the jitters fade

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:07 am

Headlines:FX hits the reset button after early day jittersUS futures erase the earlier drop from Israel-Iran fearsReport says early assessment is that Iran will not be retaliating against Israel tonightSenior Iranian official reportedly says there is no plan for immediate retaliationIran media denies reports of a foreign attack on Iranian cities, including IsfahanUK March retail sales 0.0% vs +0.3% m/m expectedGermany March PPI +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expectedGermany reportedly to raise economic growth forecast for the yearMarkets:CHF leads, NZD lags on the dayEuropean equities lower; S&P 500 futures down 0.1%US 10-year yields down 4.7 bps to 4.60%Gold down 0.1% to $2,376.72WTI crude down 0.4% to $82.38Bitcoin up 2.2% to $64,910It was all about fading the fear in European morning trade. Iran heavily downplayed the Israel attack and reaffirmed that they aren't seeking retaliation. And that is enough for markets to complete a turnaround in sentiment for the most part.While there is of course risk heading into the weekend, it seems like traders are brushing that aside mostly. S&P 500 futures were down as much as 1.7% after the headlines in Asia but are now down just 0.1% on the day. Meanwhile, gold was up to a high of $2,417 early on but is now down to $2,376 at the lows for the day.In FX, major currencies also did a round trip with USD/JPY recovering back to 154.60 and near unchanged now. The pair was down as much as 153.60 amid the jitters earlier today. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are also back to flat levels at 1.0650 and 1.2440 respectively.Meanwhile, USD/CHF is down 0.4% to 0.9085 but is well off its earlier low of 0.9010. The commodity currencies are still lacking a little though, with AUD/USD down 0.2% to 0.6408 and NZD/US down 0.3% to 0.5882 currently.There won't be much on the calendar in US trading later to really shake things up. As such, it's all about whether traders have the appetite to buy risk back up ahead of the weekend. Is this the final straw in this whole Israel-Iran episode? If so, there's only one playbook to go with.Have a great weekend, everyone. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -0.8% to 3% in February

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:00 am

Mexico Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous -0.8% to 3% in February

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0.4% in February from previous -0.6%

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:00 am

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) increased to 0.4% in February from previous -0.6%

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls after early gains from $29, near-term outlook remains firm

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:36 am

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls back while attempting to recapture crucial resistance of $29.00 in Friday’s European session.

India Bank Loan Growth: 19.9% (April 1) vs previous 20.2%

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:31 am

India Bank Loan Growth: 19.9% (April 1) vs previous 20.2%

India FX Reserves, USD down to $643.16B in April 8 from previous $648.56B

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:30 am

India FX Reserves, USD down to $643.16B in April 8 from previous $648.56B

Pound Sterling rebounds, though risk-off mood keeps downside bias intact

Apr 19, 2024 | 03:59 am

GBP/USD reversed its direction and turned positive on the day near 1.2450 after falling to a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 earlier in the day.

Elliott Waves on Dax: Drop looks overlaping, price may stabilze

Apr 19, 2024 | 03:20 am

DAX moved to the downside, breaking out of a consolidation, potentially down from another B wave, which might have been triangle around the 17,800 area.

FX hits the reset button after early day jitters

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:24 am

As for the rest of the major currencies, they are all sitting little changed with one another. The dollar and yen have relinquished most of their earlier gains, with changes among dollar pairs roughly around 0.1% or less currently. It is only USD/CHF that is down 0.3% to 0.9090 but that is well off its earlier low of 0.9010.In other markets, European indices are still keeping lower between 0.7% to 1.0%. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are still down 0.4% after having recovered its drop from the fears surrounding Israel and Iran earlier. In the bond market, 10-year Treasury yields are down 6 bps to 4.585% but is well off the low of 4.496% in Asia trading. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Silver price today: Silver edges higher, according to FXStreet data

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:14 am

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data.

India Gold price today: Gold rises, according to MCX data

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:09 am

Gold prices rose in India on Friday, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

USD/CHF remains below 0.9100 on the subdued US Dollar, awaits Fedspeak

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:05 am

USD/CHF trades around 0.9080 during the European hours on Friday.

Super Micro Computer Inc.(SMCI) Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

Apr 19, 2024 | 01:50 am

SMCI Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart. Super Micro Computer Inc., (SMCI) Daily Chart.

Germany reportedly to raise economic growth forecast for the year

Apr 19, 2024 | 01:50 am

Reuters is reporting on this, citing a source familiar with the matter. The German government is set to raise its growth forecast for the economy this year to 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously. As for 2025, they see the economy growing by 1.0%.On the inflation front, the government expects inflation at 2.4% this year. And that is down from the previous forecast of 2.8%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Australian Dollar recovers losses on expecting de-escalation of Israel-Iran situation

Apr 19, 2024 | 01:19 am

The Australian Dollar (AUD) pares losses after expectations of de-escalating geopolitical tensions as an Iranian official states no immediate plans for retaliation against Israeli airstrikes.

Greece Current Account (YoY) down to €-3.161B in February from previous €1.703B

Apr 19, 2024 | 01:00 am

Greece Current Account (YoY) down to €-3.161B in February from previous €1.703B

AUD/JPY consolidates as Iranian official states no immediate retaliation against Israel

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:56 am

AUD/JPY continues to trade in the negative territory after paring intraday losses on Friday.

USD/JPY holds ground as Iran plans no immediate retaliation against the Israeli airstrikes

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:39 am

USD/JPY reverses its losses as a senior Iranian official reportedly stated that there is no immediate plan for retaliation against the Israeli missiles strike on Iran on Friday, as per a Reuters report.

National Australia Bank Limited Elliott Wave technical forecast [Video]

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:19 am

Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED - NAB.

US futures erase the earlier drop from Israel-Iran fears

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:16 am

At the low earlier, S&P 500 futures were down by roughly 1.7%. It is now down just 0.4% as European markets open for trading. The improvement in the mood owes much to the fact that Iran has downplayed the attack from Israel. And also that they won't retaliate, at least not immediately.That is seeing a turn in the mood in FX as well. EUR/USD is back up to flat levels at 1.0645 while GBP/USD is off its earlier low of 1.2405 to near 1.2440 in the past hour. AUD/USD has also pared most of its decline from earlier to be down just 0.1% at 0.6415 currently.But with the weekend approaching, are traders bold enough to place their bets on risk trades going into next week? That still has the potential to temper with the overall market mood a little later in the day. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European indices open the day in the red

Apr 19, 2024 | 00:08 am

Eurostoxx -0.8%Germany DAX -1.0%France CAC 40 -0.6%UK FTSE -0.4%Spain IBEX -0.8%France CAC 40 -0.8%The picture was definitely much worse an hour ago. We're even seeing US futures slowly pare some of the earlier losses, with S&P 500 futures now down just 0.5%. At the bottom earlier, S&P 500 futures were down 1.7% on the day. In FX, we're also seeing the dollar pare its gains for the most part. EUR/USD is flat at 1.0645 while AUD/USD is down just 0.1% to 0.6413 currently. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Senior Iranian official reportedly says there is no plan for immediate retaliation

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:37 pm

That continues with the earlier narrative as Iran has been downplaying the whole incident from the beginning. From earlier:Report says early assessment is that Iran will not be retaliating against Israel tonight This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurostoxx futures -1.2% in early European trading

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:10 pm

German DAX futures -1.5%UK FTSE futures -0.9%Well, the whole Iran-Israel episode has been a good excuse for stocks to come off the boil. And the latest set of headlines today gives more reason for investors to play things on the safer side for now. S&P 500 futures are also still down 0.8% on the day currently. With the weekend approaching, there might not be much appetite for dip buying in the sessions ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UK March retail sales 0.0% vs +0.3% m/m expected

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:00 pm

Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%Retail sales +0.8% vs +1.0% y/y expectedPrior -0.4%; revised to -0.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.3% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.2%; revised to +0.3%Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +0.4% vs +0.9% y/y expectedPrior -0.5%; revised to -0.4%That's a rather disappointing reading with the breakdown showing the volume of food store sales down 0.7% and department store sales down 3.8% on the month. Non-store retailing sales also fell by 1.5% in March. All of that was largely balanced out by a rise in other non-food store sales (+1.8%) and automotive fuel sales (+3.2%).In any case, the divergence between value and volume of sales is still largely persisting. And that indicates the impact that higher inflation has had on UK spending over the last two years. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany March PPI +0.2% vs +0.1% m/m expected

Apr 18, 2024 | 23:00 pm

Prior -0.4%If you strip out energy prices, producer prices were actually up 0.3% on the month in March. Looking at the breakdown, the price for intermediate goods were up 0.1%, consumer goods up 0.6%, and capital goods up 0.2%. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UK retail sales on the agenda in the session ahead

Apr 18, 2024 | 22:09 pm

In any case, the focus at the moment is more on the broader market mood. Risk sentiment was rocked earlier by news of Israel striking Iran. But we're seeing those fears fade slightly after Iran played that all down and doesn't seem interested to retaliate.Still, this is all coming just before the weekend. And you can understand if and why traders would decide to lean towards being more safe than sorry. S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% but were down as much as 1.7% earlier when the news first hit. Meanwhile, gold is back down to $2,383 after having hit a high of $2,417 earlier.In FX, the dollar remains in a comfortable spot on the week amid the push and pull flows. USD/JPY did fall earlier to 153.60 but is now back up to 154.30 ahead of European trading. AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.6400 but off earlier lows at least of 0.6362.Looking to the session ahead, UK retail sales will be on the cards. The estimate is for a slight increase in retail sales in March but keep in mind that this particular trend is still very much persisting in the UK. The data will at least give pound traders something to scrutinise before the weekend.0600 GMT - Germany March PPI figures0600 GMT - UK March retail sales dataThat's all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Report says early assessment is that Iran will not be retaliating against Israel tonight

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:47 pm

From the way Iran is going about playing down the strikes, that is expected. Meanwhile, Iran's senior commander is out saying that "there was no damage" caused by the strikes. And that continues with the rhetoric that they are continuing to play down any response to the matter. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Iran media denies reports of a foreign attack on Iranian cities, including Isfahan

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:28 pm

Isfahan was said to be a target of the multiple strikes by Israel earlier here. But Iran's modus operandi seems to be clear, that is to play down everything related to that. This echoes the same message from earlier: Iran says there have been no airstrikes, only shot-down quadcopters This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

The final stretch of the week looks to be a nervy one

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:21 pm

Just when you thought markets would begin putting this episode behind, the barrage of headlines just had to hit right on a Friday. It is reported that Israel made multiple strikes earlier here but Iran has been playing that down in response. It's shaping up to be a case of Iran saying there's nothing to retaliate to if the attack wasn't even significant.Risk trades were rocked by fear early on but we're seeing some of those moves unwind naturally amid Iran's response. Gold spiked up to $2,417 earlier but is now back down to $2,388 on the day. Equities remain a little more jittery though, with S&P 500 futures still down 0.9% currently.If not for the fact that there is weekend risk to consider, I reckon we might've seen a stronger bounce back in markets. But also keep in mind that when the headlines hit earlier, it was during lighter trading conditions. So, the initial reaction might have been an outsized one.In any case, there is still the likelihood of investors choosing to play it safe before the weekend. And that could keep stocks in particular pressured to the downside, rounding off a full week of losses in Wall Street.As mentioned before, this is very much a timely development to help stocks come off the boil after the unrelenting run since November last year. In the bigger picture, this is an event that will fade into the background. And in the case of markets these days, it often doesn't take that long. But at the same time, do take into account the price developments on the charts as well. Buy value, sell hysteria. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Asia-pacific FX news wrap: Israel strikes inside Iran

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:10 pm

Iran says there have been no airstrikes, only shot-down quad-coptersJapan March core CPI 2.6% y/y vs. 2.6% expectedIsrael downgraded to A+ by S&PFed's Bostic: The economy is slowing down but slowing down slowlyFed's Kashkari: Once inflation is headed back to 2%, the Fed can cutNetflix reports revenue of $9.37 billion vs $9.27 billion expected. Shares pop then dropMarkets:Gold up $12 to $2390US 10-year yields down 8.8 bps to 4.56%Nikkei down 2.3%CHF leads, AUD lagsS&P 500 futures down 43 pointsIt was a dreadfully quiet Asia-Pacific session until about 10 am in Tokyo when reports started to surface of explosions in the Middle East. They were scattered after first, citing Syria and Iraq, then Iran. Several targets were rumored and there was talk of various nuclear sites and the market decided to duck-and-cover.What was interesting is how slowly the news travelled. We were writing on it and the markets were moving for more than an hour before it hit some mainstream news outlets. As it hit larger and larger sources, the risk mood stepped down. However by the time it made 'CNN breaking news' that was the bottom.By then it started to become clear this was a limited strike and it appears to be only on one site, and perhaps calibrated to minimize casualties and damage but to send a signal. The second positive signal was when Iran began to deny the whole thing never happened and that the sounds were quadracopters being shot down by air defense.I don't even think the truth matters here because the message is that Iran doesn't want to escalate further.The market was fairly quick to pick up on that -- and I'm going to pump my own tires here -- and we've already given back most of the gains in gold after hitting a record high of $2417. It's a similar story across the board as more of the moves fade.You could even argue that risk trades should be higher than pre-attack levels because there was always some change (and a good one) that Isreal would do something. Now that we've seen it and Iran's comments, it's not a stretch to assume this chapter is closed. Of course, in the Middle East, it never takes long for another chapter to start. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Looks like Iran wants to pretend the whole thing never happened

Apr 18, 2024 | 20:43 pm

There are some early -- but clear -- signs that Iran (or at least some parts of Iran) don't want to escalate this fight further. Given the murmurs out of Israel, they can't be shocked at another strike. That said, the strike appears to be limited to one military site and there are no reports yet on the level of damages.For domestic consumption, Iran appears to be saying that nothing happened at all, that air defenses were activated and some small drones were shot down. That contrasts with what the US has said and I'm sure some videos will emerge (hopefully even some real videos) but we might be in a situation here where everyone has saved enough face to move on, at least from this chapter.The gold bulls appear to be the first ones giving up on the war trade:USD/JPY has also made a big retracement and oil is coming down. Stocks are still deep in the red but this has looked like a dip to buy from the start. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Forex Today: Stocks Tumble – Sell in May and Go Away?

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:27 am

Stocks Make Deepest Pullback in Months; Precious Metals Remain Strong; Dollar Weakens After G7 Statement; Several Trends May Be Reversing

Bitcoin Halving: Will it Trigger a Market Frenzy?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:41 am

Bitcoin is all over the news, as “Bitcoin halving” is expected to occur on Friday, April 19. What is Bitcoin halving and how will it affect the price of Bitcoin?

Forex Today: US Yields Rise on Powell Cut Delay Signal

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation Falling Too Slowly; Israel Hints at Soft Retaliation, Crude Oil Weaker; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.79; UK CPI Higher Than Expected; Bitcoin Close to Halving

Forex Today: Stock Markets See Strong Selling

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:10 pm

Global Stock Markets Firmly Lower; Israel Signals Retaliation Likely Soon; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.44; Energies, Precious Metals Firm; Markets Await Canadian CPI Data

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Improves as Mideast Tension Lowers

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:51 am

Immediate Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely; USD/JPY Breaks Out to New 34-Year High Near ¥154; Market Await US Retail Sales Data

Forex Today: US Monthly CPI Unchanged, Triggers Hawkish Shift on Rate Cuts

Apr 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

US CPI data released yesterday showed the annualized rate rising higher than expected to 3.5%.

US Inflation Higher Than Expected, Accelerates to 3.5%

Apr 10, 2024 | 09:37 am

US inflation for March rose 3.5% year-on-year. This was higher than expected and the US dollar is higher following the inflation release.

Forex Today: US CPI Expected to Show Slower Monthly Increase

Apr 9, 2024 | 23:43 pm

US CPI data will be released today, with the market expecting a slower pace of monthly increase.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,354

Apr 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Metals Rise Strongly to New Highs; USD/JPY Likely to Retest 34-Year High at ¥152; Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Pull Back From Highs

Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Apr 4, 2024 | 00:08 am

Spot Gold has continued to rise to new all-time high prices.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,288

Apr 2, 2024 | 22:27 pm

Precious Metals Rise Firmly to New Highs; Fed’s Daly Expects 3 Rate Cuts in 2024; USD/JPY Remains Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

German Inflation Eases to 3-Year Low

Apr 2, 2024 | 07:54 am

Germany’s CPI climbed 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.7% in February and matching expectations. This is the lowest inflation rate since May 2021.

Forex Today: Yen Nears Record Low, Markets Await Possible BoJ Intervention

Apr 1, 2024 | 23:20 pm

USD/JPY Advances Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; US Dollar Stronger on Firm US Manufacturing Data; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

Forex Today: Gold Hits $2265 Per Ounce

Mar 31, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Reaches Record High in Asian Session; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Strong Chinese Manufacturing Data; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4%

Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

Forex Today: Cocoa Futures Break $9,000 for Record High

Mar 26, 2024 | 00:38 am

Cocoa Futures Gain 8% in a Day; US Stocks, Gold Remain Bullish; Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Bitcoin Rises Above $70k Despite Record Crypto Fund Outflows

United States Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates, Remains Cautious

Mar 21, 2024 | 04:26 am

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time at its meeting on March 20. The US dollar fell against the major currencies following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed Says 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Stocks, Gold Boom

Mar 21, 2024 | 00:07 am

Fed Gives Dovish Surprise by Forecasting 3 Cuts in 2024; Markets Await BoE, SNB; Gold, Stock Markets Reach Record Highs; Japanese Yen Regains Ground; Bitcoin Pares Losses; UK CPI Falls

Forex Today: Markets Await FOMC Meeting

Mar 20, 2024 | 00:06 am

FOMC Expected to Leave Rate at 5.50%; Japanese Yen Continues to Fall After BoJ; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await UK Inflation Data, New Zealand GDP

Forex Today: Bank of Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Mar 19, 2024 | 00:26 am

BoJ Makes First Rate Hike Since 2007, Japanese Stocks Rally, Yen Weakens; RBA Leaves Rates at 4.35%; Cocoa Futures Slightly Lower After Record High Yesterday; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await Canadian Inflation Data

Forex Today: Markets Expecting First BoJ Rate Hike in 17 Years

Mar 18, 2024 | 00:19 am

90% Expect BoJ to Ditch Negative Rates Policy Tuesday, Japanese Stocks Rallying; Bitcoin Rising After Another Record High Thursday; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead With Dramatic Gains

Forex Today: Markets Await US PPI

Mar 14, 2024 | 00:24 am

US PPI Expected at 0.2%; Bitcoin Makes Another Record High Above $73,000; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead.

Forex Today: US Inflation Ticks Higher to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 23:29 pm

US CPI Rises Unexpectedly; S&P 500 Makes Record High Close; Bitcoin Makes All-Time High Above $73,000

US Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 07:02 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% year-on-year in February, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of 3.1%.

Forex Today: Markets Expecting Unchanged US Inflation Data

Mar 12, 2024 | 01:03 am

US CPI Seen at 3.1%; Bitcoin Hits New Record Below $73,000; Gold’s Bullish Momentum Starts to Pause

Forex Today: Gold, Bitcoin Looking Bullish Near Friday’s Record Highs

Mar 11, 2024 | 00:17 am

Gold, Bitcoin Advancing Again; Yen Higher on Japanese Rate Hike Bets and GDP Growth

ECB Maintains Interest Rates, Revises Lower Inflation Forecast

Mar 7, 2024 | 14:06 pm

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its deposit rate at a record high of 4.00% at today’s policy meeting. This decision was widely expected, and the Euro’s response has been muted.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High Above $2161

Mar 6, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Gold Powers to New All-Time High; Powell Says Inflation Progress Not Assured; Japanese Rate Hike Seen Likely as Wages Rise; Bank of Canada Holds Rates; Markets Await ECB Meeting

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