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MUFG: Increased risk of imminent yen intervention as USD/JPY nears 155

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:58 am

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group highlights the rising likelihood of intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen, following strong signals from Japan’s Finance Minister and recent currency trends. The USD/JPY has been hovering just below the crucial 155 level, intensifying intervention expectations ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Wednesday.Key Points:Finance Minister's Warning: Japan’s Finance Minister, Suzuki, has issued a potent warning, indicating that the government is closer to intervening in the forex market to support the yen. This follows a tripartite agreement between Japan, South Korea, and the US acknowledging concerns over the recent weakness of the yen and South Korean won.Market Conditions and Intervention Readiness: Suzuki’s statements suggest that the conditions for intervention are primed, marking a significant shift in Japan's stance towards more direct action against excessive volatility in the yen exchange rate.Speculative Trading and Yen Weakness: The latest IMM report reveals a continued increase in speculative short positions on the yen, reaching the highest levels since November 2017. This trend underscores the market's bearish outlook on the yen, contributing to its depreciation.Concerns Over Economic Fundamentals: Japanese officials are worried that the yen’s recent movements do not reflect the country's economic fundamentals, especially since significant policy changes in March when Japan exited negative interest rates and yield curve control.Timing and Effectiveness of Intervention: There is a concern that intervening to support the yen might be less effective if U.S. yields keep rising, potentially strengthening the dollar further. This scenario could diminish the impact of any Japanese efforts to stabilize or strengthen the yen.Conclusion:As the USD/JPY approaches the sensitive 155 level, MUFG underscores the heightened risk of intervention from Japan to support the yen. With the backing of recent agreements and the clearest indication yet from Japan’s Finance Minister, markets are on high alert for potential actions that could influence currency dynamics significantly.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The intensity of the US dollar reaction to the PMI is instructive

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:47 am

This is a market that's been desperately searching for signs of a cooling economy and it's treating today's S&P Global US PMI like an oasis in the desert.It's similar in FX, where we are getting a round of US dollar selling that's lifted the euro by 40 pips and the pound by 60 pips. I wrote yesterday about how I thought we had hit the point of maximum pain in bonds. We may get a better signal in today's whopping $69 billion sale of 2s but with a 3 bps decline today, a sale at 5% is looking less likely.The S&P Global services PMI doesn't have a perfect record but it's a forward-looking indicator and cracks the door open to some cooling in the economy -- and the rate cuts the market wants with it.The combination of the six-day rout in stocks and the pain trade all year long in bonds could mean a rapid re-evaluation of the path of the economy. Many forget that the US is running a deficit close to 7% of GDP. Once that's removed in 2026 (depending on the election results), the economy will need lower rates to grow, similar to what we're seeing elsewhere. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold price weakens as Middle East tensions ease, weak US PMI provides some relief

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:46 am

Gold price (XAU/USD) finds support after slipping below the crucial support of $2,300 in Tuesday’s early American session.

Mexican Peso trades higher in major pairs after global Manufacturing PMIs enter contraction

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:34 am

The Mexican Peso (MXN) is trading higher on Tuesday after plummeting temporarily at the end of last week, but then reverting to mean after fears of an escalation in the conflict in the Middle East abated.

Pound Sterling rises on strong UK Services PMI, BoE Pill's hawkish guidance

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:32 am

The Pound Sterling (GBP) bounces back from 1.2300 in Tuesday’s early New York session as the S&P Global/CIPS has posted stronger-than-expected United Kingdom preliminary Services PMI data for April.

Breaking: US S&P Manufacturing PMI declines to 49.9, Composite PMI falls to 50.9

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:24 am

S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the United States (US) Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for April on Tuesday, a survey that measures business activity throughout the month.

US Dollar sees markets applauding weaker PMI, though no major selling for the Greenback

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:23 am

The US Dollar (USD) is a touch softer this Tuesday after European Purchase Managers Index (PMI) numbers for Germany and France partially outpaced the US PMI numbers for April. The biggest turning point is the fact that US Services fell below

USD/CHF Price Analysis: Faces selling pressure above 0.9100 after weak US PMI

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:22 am

The USD/CHF pair faces a sell-off above the round-level support of 0.9100 in Tuesday’s early American session.

Yields moving lower. Dollar lower. Stocks higher after some sluggish data.

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:22 am

The sluggish flash PMI data and Richmond Fed data, has yields moving lower, the dollar lower and stocks higher. Looking at the yield curve, the shorter end is lower as traders adjust to the surprise weakness and ponder does this ease the Feds (and the markets) anxiety about growth/inflation, just when things were tilting the other way?.2 year yield 4.918%, -5.3 basis points. The high reached 5.00% earlier today5-year 4.603%, -5.7 basis points. The high reached 4.692%10 year 4.573%, -4.9 basis points. The high-yield reach 4.652%30-year 4.696%, -2.8 basis points. The high-yield reach 4.756%Looking at the major indices:Dow Industrial Average is up 0.43%S&P index is up 0.89%NASDAQ index is up 1.23%.The small-cap Russell 2000 is leading the way with a gain of 4.63%In a Forex:EURUSD is above the February low at 1.06942 and looks toward a test of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high to the April low at 1.0709. A move above that level would have traders targeting the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart of 1.07315. USDJPY: The USDJPY is moved down to test its 100-hour moving average at 154.569 (blue line in the chart below). Moving below would give the sellers more control. GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved above both its 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines on the chart below) at 1.2406 and 1.2448 respectively. The 38.2% of the April trading range is at 1.2455 and the next upside target needed to get to and through to increase the bullish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Four things to watch this week

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:16 am

The FTSE 100 had been a wall flower of the stock market during the Q1 market rally; however, it’s fighting back, and has finally made a fresh record high.

EUR/USD bounces back into positive territory after release of US PMIs

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:08 am

EUR/USD extends its holding pattern of the last few days, trading in the mid 1.0600s on Tuesday, prior to the release of potentially market-moving purchasing manager survey data.

United States New Home Sales (MoM) registered at 0.693M above expectations (0.668M) in March

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:00 am

United States New Home Sales (MoM) registered at 0.693M above expectations (0.668M) in March

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index meets expectations (-7) in April

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:00 am

United States Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index meets expectations (-7) in April

US March new home sales 0.693m vs 0.670m expected

Apr 23, 2024 | 07:00 am

Best reading since SeptPrior was 0.662 million (revised to 0.637m)Sales +8.8% vs -0.3% priorSupply at 8.3 months vs 8.8 months priorMedian price $437,700, down 1.9% y/yI don't find this terribly surprising. There are plenty of reports in the home building industry that consumers are turning to new homes rather than existing homes because builders are offering rate buy-downs (essentially below-market interest rates for a few years). They've found that to be a winning combination and the latest numbers from a handful of big US builders were strong. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing index -7 versus -7 estimate

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:59 am

Prior month -11Manufacturing index -7 versus -7 estimate (six months in a row below zero).Services index -13 versus -7 last monthmanufacturing shipments -10 versus -14 last month.Employment -2 versus 0 last month.Wages 16 versus 23 last monthprices paid 2.79 versus 3.22 last month.Prices received 2.37 versus 2.23 last month.New orders -9 versus -17 last month.Backlog of orders -17 versus -25 last month.Capacity utilization -5 versus -21 last month. Capital expenditures -1 versus -9 last month.Services expenditures -8 versus -17 last month.Six-month forward:Shipments 32 versus 19 last month.Employment 3 versus 2 last month.Wages 43 versus 44 last month.Prices paid 3.29 versus 2.94 last month.Prices received 2.29 versus 2.03 last month.New orders 31 versus 19 last month.Capital expenditures -1 versus zero last month.Services expenditure -13 versus my 17 last month.Manufacturing still week in Richmond. Prices were mixed. Shipments, new orders, backlog of orders all negative indicative of sluggish to contracting manufacturing in the region., This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

S&P Global services PMI 50.9 vs 52.0 expected

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:45 am

Prior was 51.7Manufacturing 49.9 vs 52.0 expectedPrior manufacturing reading 51.9Composite PMI 50.9 vs 52.1 priorApril saw an overall reduction in new orders for the first time in six monthsCompanies responded by scaling back employment for the first time in almost four yearsbusiness confidence fell to the lowest since last NovemberRates of inflation generally eased at the start of the second quarter, with both input costs and output prices rising less quickly at the composite levelHowever manufacturing input cost inflation hit a one-year highSome service providers suggested that elevated interest rates and high prices had restricted demand during the monthThat last line is a good sign that the Fed doesn't need to hike rates further to restrain inflation/activity.From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:“The US economic upturn lost momentum at the start of the second quarter, with the flash PMI survey respondents reporting below-trend business activity growth in April. Further pace may be lost in the coming months, as April saw inflows of new business fall for the first time in six months and firms’ future output expectations slipped to a five-month low amid heightened concern about the outlook. “The more challenging business environment prompted companies to cut payroll numbers at a rate not seen since the global financial crisis if the early pandemic lockdown months are excluded. “The deterioration of demand and cooling of the labor market fed through to lower price pressures, as April saw a welcome easing in rates of increase for selling prices for both goods and services. “Notably, the drivers of inflation have changed. Manufacturing has now registered the steeper rate of price increases in three of the past four months, with factory cost pressures intensifying in April amid higher raw material and fuel prices, contrasting with the wage- related services-led price pressures seen throughout much of 2023.”The US dollar has dropped on this report. There's some fresh talk of a March/April weakening in the US economy and that could be showing up in this survey, which is a forward-looking metric. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (52) in April: Actual (49.9)

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:45 am

United States S&P Global Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (52) in April: Actual (49.9)

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 50.9 below forecasts (52) in April

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:45 am

United States S&P Global Services PMI came in at 50.9 below forecasts (52) in April

United States S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.9 in April from previous 52.1

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:45 am

United States S&P Global Composite PMI down to 50.9 in April from previous 52.1

US major indices are higher in early US trading

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:43 am

The major US indices are higher in early trading. The NASDAQ index is leading the way followed closely by the S&P index. A snapshot of the market 11 minutes into the open is showing:Dow industrial average up 78.15 points or 0.20% at 38318.14S&P index up 22.78 points or 0.45% at 5033.37NASDAQ index up 84.51 points or 0.55% at 15535.82The small-cap Russell 2000 is trading up 6.90 points or 0.35% at 1974.37.The flash S&P Global PMI data will be released shortly with manufacturing expected at 52.0 (versus 51.9 last month). The services estimate is also at 52.0 (versus 51.7 last month).US yields are highe ahead of the data:2- year 4.99%, +1.8 basis points5-year 4.681%, +2.1 basis points10-year 4.643%, +2.1 basis points30-year 4.749%, +2.5 basis points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Price Analysis: Silver price in steep sell-off after touching top of four-year range

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:31 am

Silver (XAG/USD) price has continued to sell-off after being rejected by the top of a long-term range at just below $30.00 (green line) on April 12.

S&P 500: Upcoming earnings lift hope

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:24 am

Monday’s trading session was quite bullish, with the S&P 500 index climbing by 0.87% and closing above 5,000 level following its sell-off last week.

US stocks set for a second day of gains

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:23 am

S&P 500 futures are nearing yesterday's highs and at the best pre-market levels. Futures are up 20 points, or 0.4% as earnings roll in.Shares of GM are up 6% after beating and raising guidance on strong truck sales. Shares of Spotify are also up 8% on earnings Shares of UPS and Pepsi are slightly lower after reporting while JetBlue tumbled 10.5%.Shares of steel-makers Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs are both lower as well on earnings misses and a decline in demand for steel from some key customers. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Oil dips over 1% with Russian Oil export still at multi-month high

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:11 am

Oil prices are taking a turn for the worse this Tuesday with Russia back in focus. A Bloomberg report showed that Russia is still flooding the markets with its cheaper Oil, maintaining its multi-month high exports of seaborne crude exports. India and China

Slowing package delivery numbers highlights middling demand

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:06 am

UPS reported earnings earlier today and there are some read-throughs on the strength of the economy.The company reported a 3.2% decline in average daily volumes in its domestic segment and a 5.8% drop in its international segment in the quarter. However the company said volumes “showed improvement through the quarter”.The world's largest parcel delivery firm is a barometer of economic activity. Overall revenues at $21.7 billion were below $21.9 billion expected and $22.9 billion a year ago.The company remained optimistic on the second half of the year.Shares are down 0.9% in the premarket. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY notches up a 34-year high as USD returns to favor

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:00 am

USD/JPY pulls back a touch after making a new high for April – and the last 34 years – at 154.86 on Tuesday, as the US Dollar (USD) returns to favor amid continued optimism regarding the US economy.

United States Redbook Index (YoY) climbed from previous 4.9% to 5.3% in April 19

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:57 am

United States Redbook Index (YoY) climbed from previous 4.9% to 5.3% in April 19

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Despite signs this is probably not a bullish reversal

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:57 am

“The trend is your friend,” traders like to say, and AUD/USD is in a downtrend overall.

ECB's Nagel: Need to be convinced inflation is heading back to target before cutting rates

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:52 am

"Before cutting interest rates, we must be convinced based on data that inflation will actually reach our target in a timely and sustained manner," European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank Chief Joachim Nagel said on Tuesday.

Philly Fed April non-manufacturing index -12.4 vs -18.3 prior

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:33 am

Prior was -18.3Firm-level activity +18.4 vs -2.3 priorNew orders +6.5 vs -3.9 priorEmployment +11.0 vs +3.5 priorWage and benefit cost index +27.4 vs +35.3This is a low-tier indicator but it This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

PMIs and new home sales and a two-year auction coming up

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:20 am

The week picks up today on the economic calendar and the earnings calendar.The main highlight comes at 9:45 am ET as the global PMIs continue to roll out with the US manufacturing and services surveys. The consensus on both is 52.0.Then at 10 am ET, it's new home sales and the Richmond Fed.Perhaps the biggest mover could be a whopping $69 billion sale of 2-year notes at 1 pm ET. Two-year yields are just below 5% and that will the key line for the auction.After the close, it's all about earnings with Tesla, Visa and Texas Instruments on the docket.For more, see the economic calendar. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

ForexLive European FX news wrap: Euro does the rise and fall on PMI beats, pound gains

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:05 am

Headlines:Euro gives it all back as PMI pop fadesJapan huffs and puffs but it isn't taking USD/JPY downGold stays in retreat mode, down 1% on the dayFrance April flash services PMI 50.5 vs 48.9 expectedGermany April flash manufacturing PMI 42.2 vs 42.8 expectedEurozone April flash services PMI 52.9 vs 51.8 expectedUK April flash services PMI 54.9 vs 53.0 expectedECB's de Guindos: Barring any surprises, June rate cut is a 'fait accompli'BOE's Pill: The timing for a rate cut is still some way offBOE's Pill says seeing signs of a downward shift in inflation persistencyBOE's Haskel: High inflation to remain unless labour market weakensMarkets:GBP leads, NZD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 2.9 bps to 4.651%Gold down 1.0% to $2,302.06WTI crude down 0.7% to $80.65Bitcoin down 0.7% to $66,088A couple of PMI beats got things moving in Europe, with the euro nudging higher amid better readings from France and Germany. It was a tale of two PMIs, as services were a beat while manufacturing remains rather languid. Still, EUR/USD popped higher from 1.0665 to 1.0695 but gave it all back afterwards.The dollar was largely steady during the session but is now easing just a touch against the euro and pound mostly. EUR/USD is up 0.15% to 1.0670 while GBP/USD is up 0.38% to 1.2396, with the latter helped out by some comments from BOE policymaker Huw Pill.Besides that, other major currencies didn't do much with eyes also still on USD/JPY as it holds near the 155.00 mark.In other markets, bond yields are higher after the PMI data from earlier while equities are hoping to keep the bounce from yesterday going. There are still some nerves though, with US futures only up around 0.2% on the day. But European indices are unabashed, with the UK FTSE 100 even touching a record high earlier.In the commodities space, gold is still being pushed down after yesterday's fall as it slips by 1% to $2,300.It's now over to the US PMI data later next. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Exhibits volatility contraction near 0.5900

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:29 am

The NZD/USD pair drops to near the crucial support of 0.5900 in Tuesday’s European session while attempting to break above the immediate resistance of 0.5930.

BoE's Pill: Time for cutting bank rate remains some way off

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:25 am

"The combination of little news and the passage of time have brought a bank rate cut somewhat closer," Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said on Tuesday and added: "The lack of news gives me no reason to depart from my baseline that the time for cutting bank rate remained some way off." Key takeaways "Caution against expectations that the Bernanke report will lead to a rapid change in how UK monetary policy is presented." "How, when, I would vote for a bank rate cut depend crucially on how

Upward revision to BoJ CPI inflation forecast may afford little protection to JPY – Rabobank

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:19 am

Analysts at Rabobank share their outlook for USD/JPY ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy meeting later in the week.

Pound Sterling remains fragile to start new week

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:09 am

GBP/USD gathered recovery momentum and climbed above 1.2350 in the European trading hours on Tuesday after touching a five-month low of 1.2300 on Monday.

US Dollar flat ahead of record 2-year note auction – BBH

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:54 am

Analysts at BBH share their near-term outlook for the US Dollar.

Major currencies revert back to unchanged levels on the day

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:21 am

Well, that's quite a bummer in European morning trade. There was a bit of life after the PMI data earlier but things have quickly settled back down. Dollar pairs are sitting within 10 pips of one another, showing very little change on the day.That speaks to the lack of conviction we're seeing for the time being. Hopefully that will change when we get to the US PMI data later, to help set the tone for the sessions ahead as well. Otherwise, it might stay quieter until we get to the US Q1 GDP data on Thursday and the PCE price index on Friday.If anything else, USD/JPY remains one to pay close attention to as it holds close to the 155.00 mark.In other markets, gold is still down a little over 1% at $2,300 while equities are hoping to post back-to-back daily gains this week. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% but things are still looking a little nervy, as seen in US trading yesterday. Nonetheless, investors managed to snap the run of six straight days of losses so let's see if they can keep the bounce going for now. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Euro gives it all back as PMI pop fades

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:00 am

It was a quick one at that, as EUR/USD backs away from the earlier high of 1.0695 to fall to 1.0655 on the day. The data doesn't change the ECB's plan for a move in June but it is perhaps a first step in keeping their options open after that. For now at least, traders are more focused on the next move.And as mentioned earlier:"Taking that into consideration, the euro bounce we're seeing might not have much legs to it. But at least from the near-term chart above, EUR/USD is working above both its 100 and 200-hour moving averages again. That sees the near-term bias turn more bullish at least. But we'll see if price can hold above the high last week at 1.0690 for the day. If that doesn't last, I'm inclined to fade this move for a quick one."A good ol' fade the pop trade in the bag. Now, we're back to square one on the day. And with price action continuing to consolidate in and around the key hourly moving averages, we'll have to wait on the US PMI data to settle the score. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

FTSE100 outlook: Hits new record high

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:48 am

FTSE 100 index hit new marginally higher record high on Tuesday, as strong bullish acceleration extends into third straight day.

Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:23 am

Japan is maintaining the view that the economy is "recovering moderately though it appears to be stalling recently" for a second straight month. That comes after the downgrade in February here. In this month's report, there was only a slight change to corporate views on business conditions. That is seen as improving but impacted by the suspension of output and shipments by some automakers. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

BoE’s Haskel: Persistence of inflation will be influenced by labor market tightness

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:22 am

Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Haskel said on Tuesday that the “persistence of inflation will be influenced by labor market tightness.” “UK labor market tightness has been falling rather slowly,” Haskel added.

EUR/JPY holds gains after mixed PMI data from Germany and Eurozone, trades above 165.00

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:10 am

EUR/JPY cross extends its winning streak for the third successive session, hovering around 165.20 during the European trading hours on Tuesday.

GBP/JPY climbs to fresh daily top, beyond mid-191.00s after mixed UK PMIs

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:02 am

GBP/JPY gains some positive traction in reaction to the upbeat UK Services PMI.

Silver price today: Silver falls further, according to FXStreet data

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:01 am

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

UK April flash services PMI 54.9 vs 53.0 expected

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:30 am

Prior 53.1Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs 50.4 expectedPrior 50.3Composite PMI 54.0 vs 52.6 expectedPrior 52.8Similar to the Eurozone, it is a tale of two PMIs with the services reading coming in stronger while the manufacturing reading being weaker. At the balance, that's still good news for the UK economy - which relies more on services - as the business expansion gathers pace. The services and composite readings are 11-month highs with the manufacturing reading being a 2-month low. S&P Global notes that:“Early PMI survey data for April indicate that the UK economy's recovery from recession last year continued to gain momentum. Improved growth in the service sector offset a renewed downturn in manufacturing to propel overall business growth to the fastest for nearly a year, indicating that GDP is rising at a quarterly rate of 0.4% after a 0.3% gain in the first quarter. “The upturn encouraged firms to take on workers in increased numbers which, alongside April's rise in the National Living Wage, drove cost pressures sharply higher. Although selling price inflation cooled slightly, the upturn in costs alongside solid demand suggests firms may seek to raise prices in the coming months. “While the improving economic recovery picture is welcome news, the upward pressure on inflation will add to concerns that a sustainable path to below target inflation has not yet been achieved.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Eurozone April flash services PMI 52.9 vs 51.8 expected

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:01 am

Prior 51.5Manufacturing PMI 45.6 vs 46.6 expectedPrior 46.1Composite PMI 51.4 vs 50.7 expectedPrior 50.3The services print is a 11-month high while the manufacturing print is a 4-month low. But at the balance, the Eurozone economy is seen expanding at its quickest pace in nearly a year in April. While economic conditions are at least improving, price pressures are seen intensifying slightly on the month. HCOB notes that:“The eurozone got off to a good start in the second quarter. The Composite HCOB Flash PMI took a significant step into expansionary territory. This was propelled by the services sector, where activity has gathered further steam. Considering various factors including the HCOB PMIs, our GDP forecast suggests a 0.3% expansion in the second quarter, matching the growth rate seen in the first quarter, both measured against the preceding quarter. “Several factors indicate that the recovery in the private service sector, which dominates the entire economy, is poised to be sustained. Firstly, there has been a positive momentum in new business for the past two months, which translates also into a bolder hiring policy. Secondly, the higher increases in output prices are not only a response to the faster rise in input costs but also reflect the confidence of service providers in setting prices. Lastly, the recovery is occurring simultaneously in the two most significant economies of the Eurozone, Germany and France. This suggests the presence of common factors such as lower inflation and higher wages, which bolster purchasing power and contribute to the resurgence in the service sector. “The PMI figures are poised to test the ECB's willingness to cut interest rates in June. Accelerated increases in input costs, likely driven not only by higher oil prices but also, more concerningly, by higher wages, are a cause for scrutiny. Concurrently, service sector companies have raised their prices at a faster rate than in March, fuelling expectations that services inflation will persist. Despite these factors, we expect the ECB to cut rates in June. However, we doubt that the central bank will adopt a "pragmatic speed", as suggested by François Villeroy de Galhau from the ECB. Instead, we expect a more cautious approach. “The best that can be said about the manufacturing sector in the eurozone is that production fell at the slowest rate for a year in April and that job losses have eased somewhat. Otherwise, the picture remains rather bleak, with new business continuing to decline rapidly, along with order backlogs. Weak demand for industrial products is also evident in the sharp decrease in the volume of purchased inputs and the absence of a turnaround in the inventory cycle. Although we anticipate a recovery in the manufacturing sector by the middle of the year, it's essential to consider structural factors influencing the sector. China, whose companies are increasingly becoming a competitor for local industrial companies, particularly in the area of high-tech products, is likely to be a significant factor in this regard.” This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Euro nudges higher as ECB gets some room to work with

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:36 am

This was the sort of recovery nobody saw coming for the euro area. A major rebound in services activity is dragging the region out of the mud, with the French economy stabilising in April while the German economy expanded for the first time in ten months. The euro has moved up a fair bit on the session now, with EUR/USD climbing to 1.0695 from around 1.0645 earlier:Amid a weakening economy and inflation trending lower, things were sort of cast in stone that the ECB would cut rates in June. But now, if the economy is really starting to turn around, they might have some added room to work with.In my opinion, I still think the ECB will at least go with the first rate cut in June at the minimum. But this at least will disincentivise them from acting too hastily after that. The odds of a June move have been reduced slightly to ~63% from ~67% before the data. So, that still fits with a likely push for June once the Q1 wages data confirms it next month.Taking that into consideration, the euro bounce we're seeing might not have much legs to it. But at least from the near-term chart above, EUR/USD is working above both its 100 and 200-hour moving averages again. That sees the near-term bias turn more bullish at least.But we'll see if price can hold above the high last week at 1.0690 for the day. If that doesn't last, I'm inclined to fade this move for a quick one. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Germany April flash manufacturing PMI 42.2 vs 42.8 expected

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:30 am

Prior 41.9Services PMI 53.3 vs 50.5 expectedPrior 50.1Composite PMI 50.5 vs 48.5 expectedPrior 47.7That's a big beat on the services reading and it drags the German economy into expansion territory on the month. The euro has shot higher on this, with EUR/USD moving up from 1.0665 to 1.0695 at the moment. If anything else, this at least gives the ECB some room to work with if they decide not to move in June instead. HCOB notes that:“Is the recession over? This is the obvious question which arises as the German Composite PMI has surpassed 50 in April for the first time since mid-last year. The answer is not straightforward. For starters, it appears that the recession was predominantly concentrated within the manufacturing sector, while the broader economy may have narrowly skirted such a downturn. Secondly, the headline PMI index for manufacturing fails to indicate any significant change in this regard, although output is contracting at a somewhat gentler pace. Lastly, and perhaps most crucially, the services sector is commencing the second quarter on a strong footing. Factoring in the PMI numbers into our GDP Nowcast, we estimate that GDP may expand by 0.2% in the second quarter, following an estimated 0.1% growth in the first quarter, both in comparison to the preceding three-month period. “The service sector may serve as a catalyst for the overall economy. Comprising approximately two-thirds of the economy, services companies send out clear indications of a more sustained recovery. In addition to the accelerated growth in services activity, there are encouraging signs in the more forward-looking aspect of outstanding business, which has shifted into expansionary territory. Furthermore, the accelerated pace of hiring by companies compared to March is a further indication of optimism. “Services companies show a good amount of self-confidence. This is reflected in their pricing strategies, among other factors. It indicates their belief that they can pass on the recent increase in input prices to customers to a greater extent than previously. This stands in contrast to companies in the manufacturing sector, where sales prices remain under pressure. On the input side, some companies are evidently grappling with the impact of higher oil prices. However, the overall downward trend in manufacturing input prices that has persisted since the beginning of 2023 remains intact. “In the manufacturing sector, there are a few good signs, but more bad ones. Production in April experienced a less pronounced decline compared to March and we’re seeing a bit more optimism with respect to future output. However, the steeper drop in incoming orders, the sharpest in the past five months, is less encouraging. Additionally, quicker delivery times serve as further evidence of weakening demand. In this context, there are still no indications that the tentative turnaround observed in the global inventory cycle has reached Germany." This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

France April flash services PMI 50.5 vs 48.9 expected

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:15 am

Prior 47.8Manufacturing PMI 44.9 vs 46.9 expectedPrior 46.2Composite PMI 49.9 vs 48.8 expectedPrior 48.3The French economy nears stabilisation in April but it is a tale of two halves for the most part. While the services sector has returned to growth, the manufacturing sector is seen in deeper contraction territory on the month. But it is the first time in almost a year that services activity is seen expanding at least. HCOB notes that:"The French economy is back on track. The Composite Flash PMI reached its highest level in 11 months, with 49.9 index points taking it almost out of the contraction zone. The only reason for that surprisingly robust figure is the expansion of the services sector, which experienced an increase in demand for the first time since April 2023. The manufacturing sector stays put in decline due to a deceleration of activity. Overall, our HCOB nowcast model for the second quarter points to a recovery of the French economy, driven by the services sector. "The French services sector is the workhorse of the economy. Services activity grew for the first time since May 2023, when large protests started to drive negative economic sentiment. The main reason for the expansion was higher demand. Because demand was strong in April, backlogs of work declined at a slower pace compared to the previous month. "French manufacturing output stays subdued, but we expect it will soon follow the path of the services sector. The manufacturing sector delays the overall economy’s recovery for now, though. The Output Index dropped for another month, mostly offsetting services activity growth. Weak demand in manufacturing was the main reason for the faster deterioration. "Prices remain elevated due to higher wages, energy and oil prices. In particular, output price inflation reaccelerated in April, staying clearly above 50. Input prices also reaccelerated compared to the previous month. The labour-intensive services sector is mostly responsible for price pressures in France. Increases in wages and fuel prices were cited as the reasons for services and goods inflation, respectively. According to the Indeed Wage Tracker, wage growth should slow further in the coming months, appeasing monetary policymakers. We also believe that the recent resurgence in energy prices should calm down somewhat in the medium term." This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

European equities stick with a more positive mood to start the day

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:13 am

Eurostoxx +0.8%Germany DAX +0.9%France CAC 40 +0.4%UK FTSE +0.6%Spain IBEX +0.6%Italy FTSE MIB +0.5%The optimistic turn continues in Europe as investors look to keep the bounce going. US futures are less enthused though, with S&P 500 futures up just 0.1%. For UK stocks, they're shining brightly with the FTSE 100 hitting a fresh record high now: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Gold stays in retreat mode, down 1% on the day

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:55 pm

The recent geopolitical tensions was a good reason for stocks to come off the boil. And now that the fears are abating, it is also providing a good reason for gold to also let out some of the steam. Gold made some attempts to top $2,400 earlier this month but failed to see a daily close above the key level. And now, price is starting to feel exhausted as it falls back to $2,300 on the day.It has been quite the run for gold over the last two months, having gained by more than 20% at one point. One can easily make an argument of price running up too high, too fast. And with that, comes the correction/retracement phase. That might be where we are at now.The near-term chart already took a turn in trading yesterday here. And the further drop today now calls into question the bigger picture from a technical perspective. The daily chart highlights that we might see this latest fall extend further, with little support on the way down.The Fib retracement outline shows that we could see a push towards $2,260 next at least before some semblance of support. That coming from the 38.2 Fib retracement level. The next key stop after that might be a push towards $2,200.But as mentioned yesterday, there is still a very strong argument for gold to run even higher in the months ahead. As such, this latest retreat is another dip buying opportunity. Stay vigilant on changes in market sentiment and also lean on the technicals. That's the best bet when going about trades like this one. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan lawmaker says authorities could intervene to support yen at any time

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:16 pm

Recent yen fall has been excessive, out of line with fundamentalsDon't think Japan will face any criticism if it were to act nowAuthorities could intervene to prop up yen at any timeThe verbal intervention continues on the day but once again, it isn't fazing USD/JPY whatsoever. The pair is basically frozen so far in trading this week. Buyers are not willing to abandon their bullish conviction (for the most part) yet but are struggling to muster up the courage to test Tokyo's resolve at the 155.00 mark. Will it be a case of Icarus flying too close to the sun? This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

China is to revise statistics law in order to combat data fraud

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:19 pm

Amid skepticism on the reliability of its data, China is said to be revising its statistics law to prevent persistent data fraud. The draft of the amended law has been submitted to the standing committee of the National People's Congress for discussions.It is said that the amendment will help to strengthen statistical supervision and also help authorities pin down legal responsibility. Adding that authorities will increase fines for illegal behaviour by firms or public institutions that refuse to, or delay, reporting data.Well, it comes at a bit of a sensitive time for China considering the state of its economy. Beijing will want to prove that it can still consistently meet its growth target, and wants to look credible at that. My take is that it will take more transparency and more years of actual honest reporting to change any perception currently. One or two years of good isn't going to cover for the fact that we've had decades of skepticism on Chinese data reliability. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Japan underlying inflation measures slowed in March - BOJ

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:10 pm

According to the latest core inflation measures from the BOJ, price pressures have slowed further in March. The trimmed mean reading fell to 2.2% from 2.3% in February. Meanwhile, the weighted median reading fell to 1.3% from 1.4% in February. Here's the graph depicting the trend: This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Aussie dollar trades back above US$0.64

Apr 22, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6446 at time of writing. The Aussie dollar yesterday fared better than most of its rival counterparts against the Greenback partly because commodities, which Australia is a major exporter of, are holding their value better than expected. The supportive effect may not last, however, since Iron Ore, which is Australia’s largest export, could be peaking and about to roll over. The Australian dollar may encounter challenges ahead, particularly as domestic inflation continues to moderate, aligning with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest forecasts. Furthermore, the persistently tight labour market could lead to calls for an RBA rate reduction before the year's end. On the data front, today we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers US equities on Monday opened higher in the early going, but there have been frequent bouts of strength in the latest six-day losing streak that have ultimately been overwhelmed by sellers. In early trading, the index is up 20 points, or 0.45%, which is a tad softer than futures indicated. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to 4.64% as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers argue that the current restrictive monetary policy framework is appropriate given strong labor demand and stubbornly higher price pressures. On the data front, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.15 in March from +0.09 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from February and two categories made positive contributions in March. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to CFNAI was -0.01 in March, down from +0.02 in February, the Chicago Fed said on Monday. Looking ahead for the rest of the week and Federal Reserve officials will begin its blackout period ahead of the May 1 meeting. However, April PMIs and housing data will be released by S&P Global. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.64

Apr 21, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6411 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar fell on Friday below 0.6400 as riskier assets faced pressure due to heightened geopolitical risk across financial markets. Last week on the local front Australia's unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.8 per cent after 6600 jobs were lost in March, a stronger-than-expected result that will likely end any chance of a mid-year interest rate cut. The jobless rate, revealed today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is only a marginal increase on last month's surprisingly low figure of 3.7 per cent and slightly better than market forecasts of a larger rise to 3.9 per cent. A tight labour market means the Reserve Bank is unlikely to pull the trigger on an interest rate cut until towards the end of the year. Looking ahead to this week and today we will see the release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI. A survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 106.09, a mild loss from its recent peak of 106.35. Despite this, the index remains geared toward testing its November 1 high of 107.10. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged at a low level last week, pointing to continued labor market strength that is driving the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Labor market resilience, together with elevated inflation have led financial markets and some economists to expect that the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates until September. A few economists doubt that the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs this year. The Pound Sterling tumbled against the US dollar during the mid-North American session on Friday after a volatile trading day due to geopolitical risks. The GBP/USD currently trades at 1.2367, down 0.49%. British Retail Sales showed signs of stagnation during the European session in March compared to February’s reading. Analysts were expecting sales to grow 0.3% MoM, which came at 0%, while core sales tumbled from 0.3% to -0.3%. On an annual basis, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that sales rose by 0.8%, which is up from a drop of -0.3% in February. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6300 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8700 - 0.8900 ▼

Aussie slides on prospect of US rate hike

Apr 18, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The AUD is lower this morning having given up a quarter percent amid higher US treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Domestic employment data did little to move the AUD with unemployment rate edging higher, up to 3.8%, yet holding onto most of the decline seen in February when the rate fell from 4.1% to 3.7%. If we exclude January as a seasonal outlier the unemployment rate has tracked below 4% through the last two years, suggesting there is resilience within the labour force despite signs employment growth is stalling. This latest print does little to alter market expectations for RBA monetary policy and we are still looking toward a possible cut in Q4. Having tracked between US$0.6440 and US$0.6450, the AUD then fell through overnight trade amid the prospect of a potential US rate hike. Fed policy makers made clear that if inflation remained sticky and the data indicated a rate hike was needed to bring inflation back to target then that is what they would do. Having slipped below US$0.6420 the AUD tracked sideways into this morning’s open and currently trades at US$0.6419. With no domestic data on hand to drive direction we look to Japan CPI and UK retails sales as the only items of note on the macroeconomic calendar. US yields will continue to determine direction and we anticipate the AUD will remain on the back foot next week. Key Movers The US dollar is stronger this morning having reversed losses suffered through trade on Wednesday amid hawkish Fed commentary and a general risk-off tone. Yields pushed higher after NY Fed President and FOMC member Williams suggested another rate hike was not out of the question, stating “monetary policy is in a good place, I am in no hurry to cut interest rates and if the data are telling us that we need higher interest rates to bring inflation back to target then we obviously want to do that”. With USD again on the front foot, the euro slid back below 1.0650, while sterling gave up 1.2450 and the yen again gave up 154.50 and appears poised to break through 155. US treasury Secretary Yellen and the Finance Ministers of Japan and Korea met to discuss the recent and sharp depreciation of the yen and the won, offering a joint statement acknowledging the US would not stand in the way of any official currency intervention. Upon release of the statement the yen tracked higher, but Treasury yields carried the day and the USD recovered losses and is back near 154.70 on open this morning. Our attentions turn now to Japanese CPI data and UK retail sales data as the only tier one data headlining an otherwise quiet macroeconomic calendar. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6380 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9500 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0820 - 1.0920 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.8900 ▼

Forex Today: Stocks Tumble – Sell in May and Go Away?

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:27 am

Stocks Make Deepest Pullback in Months; Precious Metals Remain Strong; Dollar Weakens After G7 Statement; Several Trends May Be Reversing

AUD finds support as market ignores risk off tone

Apr 17, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar outperformed through trade on Wednesday, pushing back against recent losses to break above US$0.6450. Commodity currencies were well supported as currency markets ignored a broader risk-off mood and instead forced the USD lower amid a steady fall in treasury yields across the curve. With the USD on the back foot, the AUD found support in higher iron ore prices and stability across the Chinese yuan daily fixing. PBOC officials set a rate largely unchanged from the week's earlier downward revision helping stabilise the yuan and limiting the negative spillover into the AUD as a proxy. Reports of increased activity across China’s steel mills help drive a 5.5% increase in iron ore prices and a break back above $115, adding a floor under the AUD at US$0.64 for the day. Our attention now turns to domestic labour market data for March. Stability across the employment landscape will give the RBA confidence in maintaining the current policy setting and may lend support to the AUD ahead of US jobless claims and commentary from 3 key Fed officials. Key Movers The euro was the day's notable outperformer Wednesday up half a percent and back through 1.0650, marking session highs at 1.0670. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde paved the way for the Euro advance, suggesting there were clear signs of a euro area recovery and that the Bank was closely monitoring the exchange rate and its potential impact on the euro and inflation. While euro bonds fell, US treasuries also retreated and markets appeared content in ignoring a broader risk-off tone, forcing the USD lower against most major counterparts. UK yields rallied after a stronger-than-expected UK CPI inflation print, driven by a surprise uptick in services inflation. While Governor Bailey suggested he expected a significant correction in next month’s numbers, market pricing for BoE policy change barely shifted with a first full cut not priced in until September, leaving August an outside chance should policymakers choose to move early. Sterling edged higher against the USD, pushing back above 1.2450, yet falling short of a break above 1.25. Our focus now turns to US jobless claims and commentary from key ECB and Fed officials. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6380 - 0.6500 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9500 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.0900 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.8900 ▲

Bitcoin Halving: Will it Trigger a Market Frenzy?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:41 am

Bitcoin is all over the news, as “Bitcoin halving” is expected to occur on Friday, April 19. What is Bitcoin halving and how will it affect the price of Bitcoin?

Forex Today: US Yields Rise on Powell Cut Delay Signal

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation Falling Too Slowly; Israel Hints at Soft Retaliation, Crude Oil Weaker; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.79; UK CPI Higher Than Expected; Bitcoin Close to Halving

AUD slide continues on heels of softer yuan spills

Apr 16, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar Another day and another move lower for the AUD as ongoing weakness across equity markets, a risk-off tone and a lower fixing by the People's Bank of China forced the AUD to mark fresh 2024 lows. The AUD slid through supports at US$0.6440/50 tumbling toward US$US0.64 after the People's Bank of China set a lower fix for the CNY, suggesting there is some flexibility for the yuan to depreciate against the USD in line with markets and yield performance. While state banks sold USD to limit CNY losses the move weighed on the AUD as a proxy among majors. The AUD was unable to recover the early losses and tracked sideways through the overnight session testing a break below US$0.64 before edging back above this critical handle leading into the morning open. We start the day on the back foot and with no headline data on the domestic docket look offshore to NZ, UK and Eurozone CPI data and commentary across several Central banks with members from the Fed, Bank of England and European Central Bank hitting the wires. With inflation pressures taking longer than expected to dissipate we are looking for any clues as to the timing and trajectory of monetary policy change. Key Movers The dollar traded within a narrow range through Tuesday as with much of the action across financial markets contained to equities, yields and rates. US Treasury yields marked fresh 2024 highs while US equities had a mixed session with both the Dow and S&P 500 closing lower. The DXY index traded up 0.16%, buoyed by softness across risk currencies and an extension against the yen. The risk of intervention continues to hang over the yen, yet the USD retained its upward trajectory as markets pushed back against comments from Japanese currency officials. The prohibited cost associated with intervention has allowed markets some scope to doubt calls by officials that intervention is imminent. With US yields driving gains markets remain on edge and we continue to monitor comments. The euro and GBP changed little with the euro trading near US$1.062 and GBP sliding below US$1.2450 and trading near US$1.2430. NZ, UK and Eurozone CPI data and commentary across several Central banks with members from the Fed, Bank of England and European Central Bank hitting the wires will drive direction through the day. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6350 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9550 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0850 - 1.0950 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.8900 ▲

Forex Today: Stock Markets See Strong Selling

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:10 pm

Global Stock Markets Firmly Lower; Israel Signals Retaliation Likely Soon; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.44; Energies, Precious Metals Firm; Markets Await Canadian CPI Data

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Improves as Mideast Tension Lowers

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:51 am

Immediate Retaliation Against Iran Unlikely; USD/JPY Breaks Out to New 34-Year High Near ¥154; Market Await US Retail Sales Data

Forex Today: US Monthly CPI Unchanged, Triggers Hawkish Shift on Rate Cuts

Apr 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

US CPI data released yesterday showed the annualized rate rising higher than expected to 3.5%.

US Inflation Higher Than Expected, Accelerates to 3.5%

Apr 10, 2024 | 09:37 am

US inflation for March rose 3.5% year-on-year. This was higher than expected and the US dollar is higher following the inflation release.

Forex Today: US CPI Expected to Show Slower Monthly Increase

Apr 9, 2024 | 23:43 pm

US CPI data will be released today, with the market expecting a slower pace of monthly increase.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,354

Apr 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Metals Rise Strongly to New Highs; USD/JPY Likely to Retest 34-Year High at ¥152; Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Pull Back From Highs

Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Apr 4, 2024 | 00:08 am

Spot Gold has continued to rise to new all-time high prices.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,288

Apr 2, 2024 | 22:27 pm

Precious Metals Rise Firmly to New Highs; Fed’s Daly Expects 3 Rate Cuts in 2024; USD/JPY Remains Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

German Inflation Eases to 3-Year Low

Apr 2, 2024 | 07:54 am

Germany’s CPI climbed 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.7% in February and matching expectations. This is the lowest inflation rate since May 2021.

Forex Today: Yen Nears Record Low, Markets Await Possible BoJ Intervention

Apr 1, 2024 | 23:20 pm

USD/JPY Advances Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; US Dollar Stronger on Firm US Manufacturing Data; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

Forex Today: Gold Hits $2265 Per Ounce

Mar 31, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Reaches Record High in Asian Session; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Strong Chinese Manufacturing Data; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4%

Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

Forex Today: Cocoa Futures Break $9,000 for Record High

Mar 26, 2024 | 00:38 am

Cocoa Futures Gain 8% in a Day; US Stocks, Gold Remain Bullish; Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Bitcoin Rises Above $70k Despite Record Crypto Fund Outflows

United States Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates, Remains Cautious

Mar 21, 2024 | 04:26 am

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time at its meeting on March 20. The US dollar fell against the major currencies following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed Says 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Stocks, Gold Boom

Mar 21, 2024 | 00:07 am

Fed Gives Dovish Surprise by Forecasting 3 Cuts in 2024; Markets Await BoE, SNB; Gold, Stock Markets Reach Record Highs; Japanese Yen Regains Ground; Bitcoin Pares Losses; UK CPI Falls

Forex Today: Markets Await FOMC Meeting

Mar 20, 2024 | 00:06 am

FOMC Expected to Leave Rate at 5.50%; Japanese Yen Continues to Fall After BoJ; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await UK Inflation Data, New Zealand GDP

Forex Today: Bank of Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

Mar 19, 2024 | 00:26 am

BoJ Makes First Rate Hike Since 2007, Japanese Stocks Rally, Yen Weakens; RBA Leaves Rates at 4.35%; Cocoa Futures Slightly Lower After Record High Yesterday; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await Canadian Inflation Data

Forex Today: Markets Expecting First BoJ Rate Hike in 17 Years

Mar 18, 2024 | 00:19 am

90% Expect BoJ to Ditch Negative Rates Policy Tuesday, Japanese Stocks Rallying; Bitcoin Rising After Another Record High Thursday; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead With Dramatic Gains

Forex Today: Markets Await US PPI

Mar 14, 2024 | 00:24 am

US PPI Expected at 0.2%; Bitcoin Makes Another Record High Above $73,000; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead.

Forex Today: US Inflation Ticks Higher to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 23:29 pm

US CPI Rises Unexpectedly; S&P 500 Makes Record High Close; Bitcoin Makes All-Time High Above $73,000

US Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 07:02 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% year-on-year in February, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of 3.1%.

Forex Today: Markets Expecting Unchanged US Inflation Data

Mar 12, 2024 | 01:03 am

US CPI Seen at 3.1%; Bitcoin Hits New Record Below $73,000; Gold’s Bullish Momentum Starts to Pause

Forex Today: Gold, Bitcoin Looking Bullish Near Friday’s Record Highs

Mar 11, 2024 | 00:17 am

Gold, Bitcoin Advancing Again; Yen Higher on Japanese Rate Hike Bets and GDP Growth

ECB Maintains Interest Rates, Revises Lower Inflation Forecast

Mar 7, 2024 | 14:06 pm

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its deposit rate at a record high of 4.00% at today’s policy meeting. This decision was widely expected, and the Euro’s response has been muted.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High Above $2161

Mar 6, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Gold Powers to New All-Time High; Powell Says Inflation Progress Not Assured; Japanese Rate Hike Seen Likely as Wages Rise; Bank of Canada Holds Rates; Markets Await ECB Meeting

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