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AUD/USD posts gain, yet dive below 0.6500 amid Aussie CPI, ahead of US GDP

Apr 24, 2024 | 16:23 pm

The Aussie Dollar finished Wednesday’s session with decent gains of 0.15% against the US Dollar, yet it retreated from weekly highs of 0.6529, which it hit after a hotter-than-expected inflation report.

USD/JPY finds its highest bids since 1990, approaches 156.00

Apr 24, 2024 | 16:22 pm

USD/JPY broke into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 on Wednesday, peaking near 155.40 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen continues to tumble across the broad fx market.

Goldman Sachs raises Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2024 and 2025

Apr 24, 2024 | 16:07 pm

Goldman Sachs has lifted its H2 2024 and 2025 Brent crude oil price forecasts higher:US$86/bbl and $82/bbl respectivelyfrom previously at $85 and $80In a note Tuesday Goldman Sachs said it expects further moderation in the still-elevated geopolitical risk premium of $5-10 per barrel for crude oil in the coming monthsstill holds a range-bound viewsees a build in landed crude inventories over the past month as crude oil on water unloads on land “Inventories are rising in our tracking of OECD landed stocks—a key driver of oil prices—as large prior builds of oil on water (partly as a result of Red Sea rerouting) are now unloading on land, reducing physical tightness.”Oil price update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD snaps the two-day winning streak above 1.2450, eyes on US GDP data

Apr 24, 2024 | 16:05 pm

The GBP/USD pair snaps the two-day winning streak near 1.2460 amid the modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday during the early Asian session.

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) registered at 1.3% above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q

Apr 24, 2024 | 16:00 pm

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (QoQ) registered at 1.3% above expectations (0.6%) in 1Q

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 34%, above forecasts (2.4%) in 1Q

Apr 24, 2024 | 16:00 pm

South Korea Gross Domestic Product Growth (YoY) came in at 34%, above forecasts (2.4%) in 1Q

Suez Canal shipping chaos: Iran-linked Houthi terrorist attacks spark inflation concerns

Apr 24, 2024 | 15:56 pm

UK data shows that shipping traffic through the Suez Canal artery in Egypt has plunged by 66%. This is due to cargo forced to divert due to attacks on vessels by Iran-backed Houthi terrorists. Sky News reports on data from the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS)data from mid-December to the begining of AprilFor financial markets the implication of this is on inflation - fears that higher costs for insurance, fuel and wages risk stoking a fresh wave due to so many vessels diverting the long way around the southern tip of Africa. This adds up to 14 days to transit times. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Gold stays firm amid higher US yields as traders await US GDP data

Apr 24, 2024 | 15:39 pm

Gold recovered some ground on Wednesday after posting back-to-back negative sessions during the beginning of the week as geopolitical risks abated.

Meta takes a guidance slide amidst the battle between yields and earnings

Apr 24, 2024 | 15:32 pm

Wednesday saw a back-and-forth session for traders grappling with the challenge of rising US yields amid encouraging earnings reports.

GBP/JPY cracks fresh nine-year high at 193.60

Apr 24, 2024 | 15:08 pm

The GBP/JPY broke into a fresh nine-year high above 193.60 on Wednesday as the Pound Sterling (GBP) sees recovery bidding and the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken despite increasingly interventionist rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bearish forces persist, bulls challenged the 20-day SMA

Apr 24, 2024 | 15:02 pm

The NZD/USD rose to 0.5937 on Wednesday’s session, presenting subtle gains.

Goldman Sachs are looking for a blockbuster Q1 GDP number, way higher than everyone else

Apr 24, 2024 | 14:59 pm

The US GDP reading, Q1 preliminary, is due at 8.30 US Eastern time on Thursday, 25 April 2024. Goldman Sachs are forecasting 3.1%, from 2.5% previously and well above consensus at 2.5%. Analsyst at the bank cite:strong personal consumptionstrong labor market, pointing to March payrolls +303,000 & unemployment down to 3.8%industrial production +0.4% (March also) ***Get your crash helmet ready for S&P 500 if the number is Goldman Sachs' 3.1!Earlier:Goldman Sachs shifted their June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) call from the June meeting to the July meeting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

US Dollar holds its ground ahead of GDP and labor market data on Thursday

Apr 24, 2024 | 14:53 pm

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading mildly higher at 105.90, buoyed by high US yields amidst hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed).

S&P 500 rate of earnings surprises the highest since Q3 2021

Apr 24, 2024 | 14:40 pm

A snippet from UBS analysts on US stocks, looking for the strongest quarterly earnings growth in over two year. UBS acknowledge that earnings season is still ongoing, but so far earnings are beating estimates by over 8% (8.3%) in aggregate. Q3 2021 was 9.7%, this quarter is the best since then. UBS project Q1 earnings will improve further as more come in:"on pace for 9.3%, assuming the historical beat rate of 4.8% for the rest of this season" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones Industrial Average hesitates on Wednesday as markets wait for key US data

Apr 24, 2024 | 14:10 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stumbled on Wednesday, falling from recent highs near 38,550.00 as investors ease off of Tuesday’s risk appetite.

Canadian Dollar pulls back on Wednesday after Canada Retail Sales disappoint

Apr 24, 2024 | 14:04 pm

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is broadly softer on Wednesday, paring back recent gains and falling back against all of its major currency peers as the single worst-performing currency for the mid-week market session.

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI fell from previous 74 to 71 in May

Apr 24, 2024 | 14:00 pm

South Korea BOK Manufacturing BSI fell from previous 74 to 71 in May

Meta Platforms Earnings: META sinks 10% on lower Q2 revenue guidance

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:45 pm

This must be "opposites" week. While Doppelganger Tesla (TSLA) rode horrible misses on Tuesday to a double-digit rally, Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and Whatsapp and the Oculus, produced impressive beats above Wall Street consensus after the close on Wednesday, only to watch the share price collapse by nearly 10%.

A summary of the major earnings after the close. Chipotle, Ford higher. Meta gets hammered

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:30 pm

ServiceNow Inc: Shares down -4.85%Adj. EPS: $3.41, beating expectations of $3.14Revenue: $2.60 billion, beating expectations of $2.59 billionChipotle Mexican Grill Inc: Shares are higher by +3.36%Adj. EPS: $13.37, beating expectations of $11.68Revenue: $2.70 billion, beating expectations of $2.67 billionInternational Business Machines Corp. Shares of their -6.03%.Adj. EPS: $1.68, beating expectations of $1.60Revenue: $14.46 billion, missed expectations of $14.55 billionLam Research Corp: Shares are down -0.55%Adj. EPS: $7.79, beating expectations of $7.30Revenue: $3.79 billion, beating expectations of $3.72 billionMeta Platforms Inc. Shares are tumbling -12.09%.EPS: $4.71, beating expectations of $4.32Revenue: $36.46 billion, beating expectations of $36.16 billionQ2 2024 Revenue View: $36.5-39 billion, The midpoint is lower than the markets estimateFY24 Capex View: $35-40 billion, higher than expectations of $34.73 billionFord Motor Co: Shares are up 2.08%Adj. EPS: $0.49, beating expectations of $0.42Revenue: $42.80 billion, beating expectations of $40.10 billion This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Latest China crackdown ICYMI - brokers told to limit exposure to "snowball" derivatives

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:23 pm

China is taking steps to regulate the derivatives market, targeting "snowball" derivatives.Authorities have instructed some of the largest brokerages to halt any increase in their net exposure to over-the-counter derivatives involving domestic A shares, including snowball products.Snowballs have seen a surge in interest.While the restrictions are said to be temporary no indication was given for an end date on curbs. Snowball derivatives, which function similarly to exotic options, offer bond-like coupons (but much higher) if the stock index remains within a certain range, with potential returns increasing the longer the investment is held. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD stays firm, shy of 1.0700 amid strong US Dollar and elevated US yields

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:23 pm

The Euro is steady against the US Dollar, virtually unchanged after solid data from the United States (US) boosted the Greenback, which recovered from Tuesday's losses.

ServiceNow EPS $3.41 vs. $3.14 est. Revenues $2.60 billion vs.$2.59 billion est

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:20 pm

ServiceNow earnings are out:EPS $3.41 versus $3.14 estimate. BEAT..Revenues $2.60B vs $2.59 billion estimate. BEATShares of ServiceNow are trading down $36.13 or -4.84% at $710.16 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

WTI explores downside but remains close to $83 as Crude Oil markets froth

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:17 pm

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil slipped back slightly on Wednesday, stumbling away from $83.50 per barrel to trade down to $82.50 as broad-market risk appetite from Tuesday evaporates in the mid-week market session.

Chipotle EPS $13.37 vs $11.66 est. Revenues $2.70 billion vs $2.67B est.

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:16 pm

Chipotle expectations:Revenue: $2.7 billion versus expectations of $2.67 billionEPS: $13.37 versus expectations of $11.66Shares of AAA are training up $123 or 4.21% at $3050.09 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

IBM EPS $1.68 vs $1.59. Revenues $14.46 billion vs $14.52B est.

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:16 pm

EPS: $1.68 vs $1.59 estimateRevenues: $14.46 billion vs $14.52 billion estimateIBM confirmed that they entered an agreement to acquire HashiCOrp for $35 per share or $6.4 billionShares of IBM are trading down $7.10 or -3.86% as markets react to the acquisition. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: USD/JPY cracks 155

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:06 pm

Canada February retail sales -0.1% vs +0.1% expectedAtlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow 2.7% vs 2.9% priorBOC Minutes: Agreed taht any monetary policy easing would probably be gradualSpanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says he's suspending public dutiesUS sells $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 4.659%EIA weekly US oil inventories -6368K vs +825K expectedDavid EInhorn (Greenlight Capital) says investors don't care about value investingMarkets:WTI crude oil down 40-cents to $82.92US 10-year yields up 4.8 bps to 4.66%GOld flat at $2321S&P 500 flatAUD leads, JPY lagsAnother big round number has given way in USD/JPY and marked a fresh high dating back to 1990. The market was flirting with 155 in Asia and early European trading and then finally broke through at the start of US trading. It was helped by earlier comments from an LDP official that they weren't currently contemplating intervention. The initial probe above 155.00 was shortlived but the retracement held at 154.75 and there was no sign of a real fight. So a second push came later, taking it as high as 155.37.The Canadian dollar was also lively following a weaker February and March advance retail sales report. The numbers suggest a weakening consumer and that helped boost the pair by 40 pips to 1.3725.However there was a late-day slide in the US dollar that helped to lift the pound to a session high and the euro back to unchanged. That came despite a broader rise in sovereign yields. That was something of a curious move that appeared to originate in Europe and included a 13 bps rise in Italian 10s. Those moves did fade some what later in the day, in part due to an ok US 5-year sale. Tomorrow we get 7s to round out the weekly slate.More importantly will be tomorrow's US GDP report and weekly initial jobless claims data. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Meta Platforms EPS $4.71 vs $4.32 est. Revenues $36.46B vs $36.1B est.

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:06 pm

Meta Platforms expectations:EPS: $4.71 vs $4.32 estimate. A year ago, EPS was at $2.20. Revenue: $36.46 billion vs $36.1 billion.estimate A year ago revenues were at $28.64 billion.Q2 $36.50 to $39B. Estimate $38.29 billionTotal expense range to $96 to $99 billion versus 94 billion estimateExpects capital expenditures will be in the range of $35-$40 billion. The market was expecting $34.7 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to increase next year as wellAdvertising revenue 35.635 main dollars versus $28.101 million last yearThe price of Meta was at $209.47 before the April 2023 earnings. The current after hours price is trading down $-52 or -10.62% at $441.62 as markets react to the higher expenses and Q2 average estimate for revenues below the markets average. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

S&P and NASDAQ close higher for the third consecutive day

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:02 pm

The broader S&P and NASDAQ index closed higher for the third consecutive day. The gains were modest ahead of key earnings starting with Meta Platforms after the close. Chipotle, ServiceNow, IBM, Lam research are all scheduled to release after the close today.For the rest of the week:Other key earnings this week:Thursday: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Southwest, Bristol-Myers Squibb. After close Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Western Digital, T-Mobile, Gilead.Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive.The final numbers today show:Dow industrial average down -42.57 points or -0.11% at 38461.04S&P index rose 1.11 points or 0.02% at 5071.67NASDAQ index rose 16.11 points or 0.10% at 15712.75Russell 2000 index fell -7.21 points or -0.36% at 1995.42 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls steer the market towards 101.00, its highest since 2014

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:00 pm

The AUD/JPY market showcases an increasingly bullish trend.

Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 25 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:00 pm

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, 25 April 2024 - a light one

Apr 24, 2024 | 13:00 pm

The calendar is light.A couple of things to note for the session ahead are:1. USD/JPY has popped above its latest 'line in the sand' (the sand blew away again) @155.00. Expect verbal intervention from Japanese officials again today. This will present dip buying opportunities, yet again. 2. It's a national holiday in Australia for ANZAC Day, markets are closed. ANZAC stands for Australian and New Zealand Army Corps. Anzac Day falls on the 25th of April each year. The 25th of April was officially named Anzac Day in 1916. On the 25th of April 1915, Australian and New Zealand soldiers formed part of the allied expedition that set out to capture the Gallipoli peninsula. These became known as Anzacs.The meaning of Anzac Day today includes the remembrance of all Australians killed in military operations. (more info here) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican Peso falls despite higher inflation, diminishing hopes for Banxico cut

Apr 24, 2024 | 12:48 pm

The Mexican Peso weakens on Wednesday as the North American session begins, following a mixed inflation report for the first half of April.

Meta Platforms, ServiceNow and Chipotle report after the close. What to expect?

Apr 24, 2024 | 12:31 pm

Meta Platforms expectations:EPS: Expected to be $4.32. A year ago, EPS was at $2.20. That is a gain of 96%Revenue: Projected at $36.1 billion. A year ago revenues were at $28.64 billion. That represents a gain of 26.0%Daily Active Users (DAUs): Expected to be 2.12 billionMonthly Active Users (MAUs): Forecasted to be 3.09 billionLast quarter, Meta initiated a $0.50 per share dividend and increased its stock buyback authorization by $50 billion.The price of Meta was at $209.47 before the April 2023 earnings. The current price is at $492.35. That is a gain of 135%. Chipotle expectations:Revenue: Projected at $2.67 billion, an increase of 12.9% from $2.37 billion in Q1 2023.EPS: Expected to be $11.66, up 11.1% from $10.50 in Q1 2023.Same-Store Sales Growth: Anticipated to be 5.13%.Menu Price Increases: Estimated at 2.87%.Transactions Growth: Projected to grow by 3.03%.Average Check Growth: Expected to increase by 2.00%.Digital Sales Growth: Forecasted to be 3.39%.New Restaurant Openings: Chipotle plans to open between 285 to 315 new restaurants in 2024, conditional on avoiding worsened delays related to developers, permits, inspections, and utilities.The price of Chipotle was at $1780 just before Q1 2023 earnings. It's currently chairs trade at $2938.90. The stock is up 65.10%. A lot is priced in. I love the food and options and especially love that 1 bowl feeds both my wife and I and is relatively healthy alternative. ServiceNow expectations. EPS: The expectations for earnings-per-share of $3.13. That is up from $2.37 a year ago. That is a gain of 32.06% from a year agoRevenues: Revenues are expected at $2.59 billion versus $2.096 billion a year ago. That's a gain of 23.56%.The price of ServiceNow has moved from a $442 a year ago, to the current price of $748 for a gain of 69.23%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

No help from the inventory data as WTI crude settles down 55 cents

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:39 am

WTI crude oil traded in a $1.25 range today and initially traded higher briefly on weekly US inventory data before fading afterwards. I think that you need to go back to yesterday to get some of the context of the rally. There was a big intraday rally in oil that looks to me like the private inventory numbers leaked (which is common).That was compounded when today the EIA reported a 6.3 million barrel draw compared to a 0.8m build expected and oil jumped and then dropped. Zoom out and oil is about where it was at the start of the week. I take that as something of a win for the bulls, given the declining Middle East tensions.If oil can continue to consolidate for another week or two above $80, then there's a good chance the bulls take a run at $90. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls continue dominating, yet a consolidation may be incoming

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:24 am

The EUR/JPY stands at 165.68, trading with mild gains still in multi-year highs.

Forex Today: Cautious trade supported the Dollar ahead of US GDP

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:06 am

The Greenback regained composure and kept the recent optimism in the risk complex on check ahead of the publication of US GDP figures and inflation gauged by the PCE later in the week.

Steady buying pulls US equities back higher

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:04 am

The intraday swings in equities in the past two weeks have been tough to manage and that's been the case again today. Stocks opened higher then were beaten down, in part due to rising Treasury yields.However the tide has turned since the 5-year sale of Treasuries came in close enough (0.4 bps tail). The bids have been non-stop since then, pulling the index 30 points from the lows.I wouldn't expect any break in the volatility from here with Meta, IBM, Ford and Chipotle among the names reporting after the bell. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY pushes the range to 155.35

Apr 24, 2024 | 10:47 am

USD/JPY has pushed to a new 34-year high at 155.37. The market tip-toed through 155.00 early in US trading and after a peak above, has evidently decided there's no intervention boogey-man on the other side. That's flashed a green light for buyers and a test of higher levels.LDP official Takao Ochi today said there's not yet active discussion on what yen levels would be deemed as worth intervening but said a move towards 160 or 170 could force action.That sounds like an invitation to me. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says he's suspending public duties

Apr 24, 2024 | 10:32 am

Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez says he's suspending public duties to reflect on his future.This comes after a Spanish court launched a preliminary investigation into whether his wife. It's not clear if the investigation is from an accusation by an opposition party that she used her position to secure sponsors for a university master's degree course that she ran. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

United States 5-Year Note Auction rose from previous 4.235% to 4.659%

Apr 24, 2024 | 10:13 am

United States 5-Year Note Auction rose from previous 4.235% to 4.659%

US sells $70 billion of five-year notes at a high yield of 4.659%

Apr 24, 2024 | 10:02 am

High yield 4.659%WI level at the time of the auction: 4.655%Tail 0.4 basis points versus six-month average of 0.5 basis pointsBid to cover 2.39 Xversus six-month average of 2.41XDirects 19.25% versus six-month average of 17.9%Indirects 65.74% versus six-month average of 65.4%Dealers 15.02 % versus six-month average of 16.7%Auction Grade: C+Domestic demand was stronger than average. International demand was on par with the average. Bid to cover was near the six-month average. Although there was a positive tail of 0.4 basis points, it also is near the average over the last 6-months.So overall, it is above average, but not by much.PS: the $70 billion was a record amount auction for that issue. Tomorrow the coupon auctions finish for the week with the sale of $49 billion of the 7-year notes. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Pound Sterling poised to resume downtrend, despite ‘morning star’ formation

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:54 am

GBP/USD Price Analysis: Poised to resume downtrend, despite ‘morning star’ formation The Pound Sterling is experiencing slight losses against the US Dollar, largely due to the influence of high US Treasury yields that are bolstering the Greenback.

David EInhorn (Greenlight Capital) says investors don't care about value investing

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:53 am

David Einhorn, billionaire president of Greenlight Capital in his letter to investors said:Investors don't understand or don't care about valuations. Says the value investing industry is deadThat does not stop him from his value investing. Some of the stocks he has bought include: Penn Entertainment (PENN). The stock is down -33.44% in 2024, but he sees value.Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - Doen -6.33% in 2024Roivant Sciences (ROIV) - Down -3.12% in 2024Liberty Global (LBTYA) - Down -9% in 2024He is also a large investor in gold which has done well in 2024 (up 12.71%.Meanwhile, the major indices are now all negative:Dow industrial average -0.38%S&P index -0.32%NASDAQ index -0.19%Russell 2000-0.82%Meta Platforms which reports after the close is trading down -1.18%. ServiceNow and Lam Research will also report earnings after the close:ServiceNow is training up $1.63 for 0.22% at $742.58 Lam Research is trading up $1.49 or 0.17% at $888.91. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

$YM_F Dow Futures Reacting Higher After Double Correction Lower

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:43 am

This technical blog will look at the past performance of the 4-hour Elliott Wave Charts of Dow futures ticker symbol: $YM_F.

Platinum (PL) Turning Higher

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:41 am

Platinum (PL) looks to have formed a bottom and the metal has started to rally higher in the next bullish cycle.

American Airlines (AAL) : Buying The Stock at the Blue Box

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:41 am

Hello fellow traders, As our members know we have had many profitable trading setups recently.

SPDR Metals & Mining ETF ( $XME) Found Buyers at the Blue Box Area as Expected.

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:34 am

Hello everyone. In today’s article, we will look at the past performance of the 1H Hour Elliott Wave chart of SPDR Metals & Mining ETF ($XME).

Elliott Wave Suggests AT&T Inc. (T) Last Leg Lower Could Have Started

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:34 am

AT&T Inc. (T) is an American multinational telecommunications holding company headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

U.S. Treasury to auction off $70 billion of five-year notes at 1 PM

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:18 am

The U.S. Treasury will auction off a record amount ($70 billion) of 5-year notes at 1 PM ET. The results will be judged in relation to the 6-month averages of the major components. Below are the results from the auction last month and the support averages of the major components.High Yield:Previous: 4.235%Six-auction average: 4.288%Tail (the Tail is the difference between the WI level trading just prior to the auction and the auction high yield. A negative tail is indicative of a strong auction):Previous: -1.0 bpsSix-auction average: 0.5 bpsBid-to-Cover (the Bid to Cover is the number of bids from investors versus the supply of notes on sale. A higher number is indicative of stronger demand):Previous: 2.41xSix-auction average: 2.41xDealers (the Dealers provide Liquidity and are a backstop in the event of lower than anticipated domestic and international demand. A high % is indicative of low demand from the normal investors. :Previous: 12.7%Six-auction average: 16.7%Directs (the Directs are a measure of domestic US demand. A higher number than the six month average is indicative of strong domestic demand):Previous: 16.8%Six-auction average: 17.9%Indirects (the Indirects are a measure of international demand. In higher number than the six month average is indicative of strong foreign demand for the issue. The vast majority of US debt is sold to foreign investors):Previous: 70.5%Six-auction average: 65.4% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Russia Industrial Output below forecasts (4.2%) in March: Actual (4%)

Apr 24, 2024 | 09:00 am

Russia Industrial Output below forecasts (4.2%) in March: Actual (4%)

European equity close: The three-day winning streak ends

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:47 am

Closing changes:Stoxx 600 -0.5%German DAX -0.4%UK FTSE 100 -0.1%French CAC -0.3%Italy MIB -0.3%Spain IBEX -0.5%European stocks ended near the lows after erasing earlier gains. The drop coincided with heavy selling in fixed income, particularly in Italy and Germany. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Will the US election be about weakening the dollar?

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:42 am

The FX market may have a reason to pay even more attention to the US election this November.Late yesterday, there was a Politico report saying Trump’s former trade adviser Robert Lighthizer and several policy allies would seek to make American trade more competitive by purposely weakening the dollar.Yesterday, Trump also posted this on his social media platform. The Dollar has just hit a 34 year high against the Yen, a total disaster for the United States. When I was President, I spent a good deal of time telling Japan and China, in particular, you can't do that. It sounds good to stupid people, but it is a disaster for our manufacturers and others. They are actually unable to compete and will be forced to either lose lots of business, or build plants, or whatever, in the "smart" Countries. This is what made Japan and China into behemoths years ago. I put limits on both (and others!), and if they violated those limits, there was hell to pay. Biden has let it go. Watch them now pick apart the U.S. It will be an open field day. Don't let this happen Crooked Joe. Wake up and smell the roses!It's not clear how a Trump administration would try to weaken the dollar. He seems to think that Japan is trying to weaken their currency when they're trying to strengthen it. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Gold finds a foot and rises to a two-day high

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:08 am

Gold got ahead of itself in the past seven weeks but it's showing in the past two days that it might not be dead yet.The $100 reversal on Monday is still sorting itself out but it's risen above some minor resistance in the past few minutes. There haven't been many dips to buy so this will be a good test of whether anyone is out there in the weeds. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Mexican Peso weakens after Mexican inflation data

Apr 24, 2024 | 07:52 am

The Mexican Peso (MXN) trades higher in most pairs midweek following widespread weakness among the majors after the release of disappointing Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data weighed, especially on the US Dollar (USD).

AUD/USD continues rising after inflation in Q1 proves stickier-than-expected

Apr 24, 2024 | 07:50 am

AUD/USD trades off the highs of the day just below 0.6500 on Wednesday, after peaking at 0.6530 overnight following the release of stickier-than-expected Australian inflation data, which showed price gains were higher in Q1 than economists had predicted.

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.65

Apr 23, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6480 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar continues its upward trajectory for the second consecutive session on Tuesday, buoyed by improved risk appetite. On the data front yesterday Australia's Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Composite rose to a 24-month high of 53.6 in April compared to the previous month's 53.3. The Australian private sector ticked up into an accelerated pace of growth in the second quarter bolstered primarily by Services sector growth. Australia's Manufacturing PMI Output rose to an eight-month high of 49.1 compared to March's 45.7, brushing off a 2-month low of 54.2 in the Services Business Activity compared to March's 54.4. Looking ahead today the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). There will be no commentary tomorrow due to the Anzac Day public holiday. Key Movers The pound bounced back from US$1.2300 in Tuesday’s early session as the S&P Global/CIPS posted stronger-than-expected United Kingdom preliminary Services PMI data for April. Surprisingly, the Services PMI jumped to 54.9 from the prior reading of 53.1. Investors forecasted the Services PMI to drop slightly to 53.0. The preliminary Manufacturing PMI, surprisingly contracted, remains below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction after expanding in March. The factory PMI falls sharply to 48.3 from expectations and the prior reading of 50.3. Looking ahead to the rest of this week investors will shift focus to the core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The monthly core PCE Price Index is estimated to grow steadily by 0.3%. Annually, the underlying inflation data is expected to soften to 2.6% from 2.8% in February. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading softly at 105.70 tallying daily losses on Tuesday's session. Investors will be keeping an eye on vital economic reports due this week, including the preliminary figures of Q1’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Growth Rate and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index from March to gain further insight into the economy's health. During Tuesday’s session, S&P PMIs came in lower than expected and made the USD face selling pressure. US Treasury bond yields are dwindling with the 2-year yield at 4.93%, the 5-year yield at 4.61%, and the 10-year yield at 4.58%. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

Aussie dollar trades back above US$0.64

Apr 22, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6446 at time of writing. The Aussie dollar yesterday fared better than most of its rival counterparts against the Greenback partly because commodities, which Australia is a major exporter of, are holding their value better than expected. The supportive effect may not last, however, since Iron Ore, which is Australia’s largest export, could be peaking and about to roll over. The Australian dollar may encounter challenges ahead, particularly as domestic inflation continues to moderate, aligning with the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) latest forecasts. Furthermore, the persistently tight labour market could lead to calls for an RBA rate reduction before the year's end. On the data front, today we will see the release of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers US equities on Monday opened higher in the early going, but there have been frequent bouts of strength in the latest six-day losing streak that have ultimately been overwhelmed by sellers. In early trading, the index is up 20 points, or 0.45%, which is a tad softer than futures indicated. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to 4.64% as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers argue that the current restrictive monetary policy framework is appropriate given strong labor demand and stubbornly higher price pressures. On the data front, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.15 in March from +0.09 in February. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from February and two categories made positive contributions in March. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index is a monthly indicator designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to CFNAI was -0.01 in March, down from +0.02 in February, the Chicago Fed said on Monday. Looking ahead for the rest of the week and Federal Reserve officials will begin its blackout period ahead of the May 1 meeting. However, April PMIs and housing data will be released by S&P Global. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6350 - 0.6550 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5950 - 0.6150 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9050 - 1.9250 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

Aussie dollar trades below US$0.64

Apr 21, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6411 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar fell on Friday below 0.6400 as riskier assets faced pressure due to heightened geopolitical risk across financial markets. Last week on the local front Australia's unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.8 per cent after 6600 jobs were lost in March, a stronger-than-expected result that will likely end any chance of a mid-year interest rate cut. The jobless rate, revealed today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is only a marginal increase on last month's surprisingly low figure of 3.7 per cent and slightly better than market forecasts of a larger rise to 3.9 per cent. A tight labour market means the Reserve Bank is unlikely to pull the trigger on an interest rate cut until towards the end of the year. Looking ahead to this week and today we will see the release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI. A survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. On Wednesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to increase from 0.6% to 0.8% for the last quarter. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Friday we will see the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI). Key Movers The US dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading at 106.09, a mild loss from its recent peak of 106.35. Despite this, the index remains geared toward testing its November 1 high of 107.10. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged at a low level last week, pointing to continued labor market strength that is driving the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended April 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Labor market resilience, together with elevated inflation have led financial markets and some economists to expect that the Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates until September. A few economists doubt that the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs this year. The Pound Sterling tumbled against the US dollar during the mid-North American session on Friday after a volatile trading day due to geopolitical risks. The GBP/USD currently trades at 1.2367, down 0.49%. British Retail Sales showed signs of stagnation during the European session in March compared to February’s reading. Analysts were expecting sales to grow 0.3% MoM, which came at 0%, while core sales tumbled from 0.3% to -0.3%. On an annual basis, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that sales rose by 0.8%, which is up from a drop of -0.3% in February. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6300 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8700 - 0.8900 ▼

Aussie slides on prospect of US rate hike

Apr 18, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The AUD is lower this morning having given up a quarter percent amid higher US treasury yields and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Domestic employment data did little to move the AUD with unemployment rate edging higher, up to 3.8%, yet holding onto most of the decline seen in February when the rate fell from 4.1% to 3.7%. If we exclude January as a seasonal outlier the unemployment rate has tracked below 4% through the last two years, suggesting there is resilience within the labour force despite signs employment growth is stalling. This latest print does little to alter market expectations for RBA monetary policy and we are still looking toward a possible cut in Q4. Having tracked between US$0.6440 and US$0.6450, the AUD then fell through overnight trade amid the prospect of a potential US rate hike. Fed policy makers made clear that if inflation remained sticky and the data indicated a rate hike was needed to bring inflation back to target then that is what they would do. Having slipped below US$0.6420 the AUD tracked sideways into this morning’s open and currently trades at US$0.6419. With no domestic data on hand to drive direction we look to Japan CPI and UK retails sales as the only items of note on the macroeconomic calendar. US yields will continue to determine direction and we anticipate the AUD will remain on the back foot next week. Key Movers The US dollar is stronger this morning having reversed losses suffered through trade on Wednesday amid hawkish Fed commentary and a general risk-off tone. Yields pushed higher after NY Fed President and FOMC member Williams suggested another rate hike was not out of the question, stating “monetary policy is in a good place, I am in no hurry to cut interest rates and if the data are telling us that we need higher interest rates to bring inflation back to target then we obviously want to do that”. With USD again on the front foot, the euro slid back below 1.0650, while sterling gave up 1.2450 and the yen again gave up 154.50 and appears poised to break through 155. US treasury Secretary Yellen and the Finance Ministers of Japan and Korea met to discuss the recent and sharp depreciation of the yen and the won, offering a joint statement acknowledging the US would not stand in the way of any official currency intervention. Upon release of the statement the yen tracked higher, but Treasury yields carried the day and the USD recovered losses and is back near 154.70 on open this morning. Our attentions turn now to Japanese CPI data and UK retail sales data as the only tier one data headlining an otherwise quiet macroeconomic calendar. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6380 - 0.6500 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9250 - 1.9500 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0820 - 1.0920 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.8900 ▼

Forex Today: Stocks Tumble – Sell in May and Go Away?

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:27 am

Stocks Make Deepest Pullback in Months; Precious Metals Remain Strong; Dollar Weakens After G7 Statement; Several Trends May Be Reversing

AUD finds support as market ignores risk off tone

Apr 17, 2024 | 17:00 pm

AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar outperformed through trade on Wednesday, pushing back against recent losses to break above US$0.6450. Commodity currencies were well supported as currency markets ignored a broader risk-off mood and instead forced the USD lower amid a steady fall in treasury yields across the curve. With the USD on the back foot, the AUD found support in higher iron ore prices and stability across the Chinese yuan daily fixing. PBOC officials set a rate largely unchanged from the week's earlier downward revision helping stabilise the yuan and limiting the negative spillover into the AUD as a proxy. Reports of increased activity across China’s steel mills help drive a 5.5% increase in iron ore prices and a break back above $115, adding a floor under the AUD at US$0.64 for the day. Our attention now turns to domestic labour market data for March. Stability across the employment landscape will give the RBA confidence in maintaining the current policy setting and may lend support to the AUD ahead of US jobless claims and commentary from 3 key Fed officials. Key Movers The euro was the day's notable outperformer Wednesday up half a percent and back through 1.0650, marking session highs at 1.0670. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde paved the way for the Euro advance, suggesting there were clear signs of a euro area recovery and that the Bank was closely monitoring the exchange rate and its potential impact on the euro and inflation. While euro bonds fell, US treasuries also retreated and markets appeared content in ignoring a broader risk-off tone, forcing the USD lower against most major counterparts. UK yields rallied after a stronger-than-expected UK CPI inflation print, driven by a surprise uptick in services inflation. While Governor Bailey suggested he expected a significant correction in next month’s numbers, market pricing for BoE policy change barely shifted with a first full cut not priced in until September, leaving August an outside chance should policymakers choose to move early. Sterling edged higher against the USD, pushing back above 1.2450, yet falling short of a break above 1.25. Our focus now turns to US jobless claims and commentary from key ECB and Fed officials. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6380 - 0.6500 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.6000 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9500 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.0900 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.8900 ▲

Bitcoin Halving: Will it Trigger a Market Frenzy?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:41 am

Bitcoin is all over the news, as “Bitcoin halving” is expected to occur on Friday, April 19. What is Bitcoin halving and how will it affect the price of Bitcoin?

Forex Today: US Yields Rise on Powell Cut Delay Signal

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:00 am

Fed Chair Powell Says Inflation Falling Too Slowly; Israel Hints at Soft Retaliation, Crude Oil Weaker; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.79; UK CPI Higher Than Expected; Bitcoin Close to Halving

Forex Today: Stock Markets See Strong Selling

Apr 15, 2024 | 23:10 pm

Global Stock Markets Firmly Lower; Israel Signals Retaliation Likely Soon; USD/JPY Reaches New 34-Year High at ¥154.44; Energies, Precious Metals Firm; Markets Await Canadian CPI Data

Forex Today: Risk Sentiment Improves as Mideast Tension Lowers

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:51 am

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Forex Today: US Monthly CPI Unchanged, Triggers Hawkish Shift on Rate Cuts

Apr 10, 2024 | 23:28 pm

US CPI data released yesterday showed the annualized rate rising higher than expected to 3.5%.

US Inflation Higher Than Expected, Accelerates to 3.5%

Apr 10, 2024 | 09:37 am

US inflation for March rose 3.5% year-on-year. This was higher than expected and the US dollar is higher following the inflation release.

Forex Today: US CPI Expected to Show Slower Monthly Increase

Apr 9, 2024 | 23:43 pm

US CPI data will be released today, with the market expecting a slower pace of monthly increase.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,354

Apr 7, 2024 | 23:24 pm

Metals Rise Strongly to New Highs; USD/JPY Likely to Retest 34-Year High at ¥152; Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Pull Back From Highs

Forex Today: Gold Beats $2,300

Apr 4, 2024 | 00:08 am

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Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record at $2,288

Apr 2, 2024 | 22:27 pm

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German Inflation Eases to 3-Year Low

Apr 2, 2024 | 07:54 am

Germany’s CPI climbed 2.2% year-on-year in March, down from 2.7% in February and matching expectations. This is the lowest inflation rate since May 2021.

Forex Today: Yen Nears Record Low, Markets Await Possible BoJ Intervention

Apr 1, 2024 | 23:20 pm

USD/JPY Advances Close to 34-Year High Near ¥152; US Dollar Stronger on Firm US Manufacturing Data; Crude Oil Breaks Higher; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

Forex Today: Gold Hits $2265 Per Ounce

Mar 31, 2024 | 23:13 pm

Gold Reaches Record High in Asian Session; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Strong Chinese Manufacturing Data; Eyes on Cocoa Futures After Spectacular Gains

United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4%

Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

Forex Today: Cocoa Futures Break $9,000 for Record High

Mar 26, 2024 | 00:38 am

Cocoa Futures Gain 8% in a Day; US Stocks, Gold Remain Bullish; Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Bitcoin Rises Above $70k Despite Record Crypto Fund Outflows

United States Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates, Remains Cautious

Mar 21, 2024 | 04:26 am

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time at its meeting on March 20. The US dollar fell against the major currencies following the announcement.

Forex Today: Fed Says 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Stocks, Gold Boom

Mar 21, 2024 | 00:07 am

Fed Gives Dovish Surprise by Forecasting 3 Cuts in 2024; Markets Await BoE, SNB; Gold, Stock Markets Reach Record Highs; Japanese Yen Regains Ground; Bitcoin Pares Losses; UK CPI Falls

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Mar 20, 2024 | 00:06 am

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Mar 19, 2024 | 00:26 am

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Mar 18, 2024 | 00:19 am

90% Expect BoJ to Ditch Negative Rates Policy Tuesday, Japanese Stocks Rallying; Bitcoin Rising After Another Record High Thursday; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead With Dramatic Gains

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Mar 14, 2024 | 00:24 am

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Forex Today: US Inflation Ticks Higher to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 23:29 pm

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US Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.2%

Mar 12, 2024 | 07:02 am

The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% year-on-year in February, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of 3.1%.

Forex Today: Markets Expecting Unchanged US Inflation Data

Mar 12, 2024 | 01:03 am

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Mar 11, 2024 | 00:17 am

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ECB Maintains Interest Rates, Revises Lower Inflation Forecast

Mar 7, 2024 | 14:06 pm

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its deposit rate at a record high of 4.00% at today’s policy meeting. This decision was widely expected, and the Euro’s response has been muted.

Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High Above $2161

Mar 6, 2024 | 23:41 pm

Gold Powers to New All-Time High; Powell Says Inflation Progress Not Assured; Japanese Rate Hike Seen Likely as Wages Rise; Bank of Canada Holds Rates; Markets Await ECB Meeting

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