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  The Latest Forex News Live Today:

  • USD/JPY set to end the week on a flat note after Tokyo warnings, what's next?

    Mar 29, 2024 | 02:55 am

    The pressure is most definitely on for the Japanese yen as the Easter break approaches. The barrage of verbal interventions by Tokyo officials have helped to stem the bleeding in trading this week. But is merely just a band aid at this point in time?The BOJ took a big step in putting an end to negative rates and scrapping its yield curve control policy this month. That being said, one can argue that they should have already started that process some time last year already. I mean, even they themselves are finding that the inflation trend in Japan is perhaps turning now.Taking that into consideration, it will make it tougher to justify any further normalisation steps. They are very much in a race against the clock, despite all the recent positive wage developments.From a technical standpoint, traders were also cautious and took profit when USD/JPY tested the 2022 and 2023 highs as seen above. The 151.90-94 region remains a key technical ceiling for price now as we settle down ahead of the weekend break.So, what's next for USD/JPY?If you look at the psychological perspective, traders are definitely being more wary and cautious now after the many warnings by Tokyo. But if the BOJ faces an uphill task to normalise policy further while the Fed may still have a 50-50 chance of not acting in June, there is an argument for USD/JPY to move up further as the pressure keeps up.As we have seen in trading this week, this is a market that is very much driven by big data. I mean, the lack of releases this week shows how languid price action can be. This makes the US jobs report on Friday next week an even more critical factor for USD/JPY right now.The tricky part is identifying when Tokyo might step in to intervene, if need be. Times of lesser liquidity are mostly preferred and the Easter break does present such an opportunity. However, traders are not really giving Japanese officials much of a sniff at the moment. USD/JPY has backed away slightly from the above high points, but is still looking poised.That could see traders look to slowly push the same threshold again when we get to trading next week, all else being equal. But in doing so, the risk now is that we're getting closer and closer to the point where Tokyo might say enough is enough.As much as Japanese officials want to fight the uptrend, they also have to be realistic. Unless USD/JPY oversteps by surging to 153 to 154 before the US jobs report, they might want to wait until Friday before acting. And if there is reason to, I reckon they might actually do so in the late stages of the day.For now, buyers can take heart in the fact that the pair is set to close flat this week. There is some consolidation now around 151.15 to 151.50 over the last two days. Meanwhile, key near-term levels are also starting to build closer with the 200-hour moving average at 151.28 currently. Keep above that and buyers will stay poised going into next week. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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  • US core PCE Preview: Federal Reserve preferred inflation gauge set to ease slightly in February on month

    Mar 29, 2024 | 02:00 am

    The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, will be published on Friday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at 12:30 GMT.

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  • EUR/USD declines to near 1.0770 as ECB officials hint at a potential rate cut in June

    Mar 29, 2024 | 01:56 am

    EUR/USD maintains its position around 1.0770 during the European session on Friday, extending losses for the fourth consecutive day.

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  • Central bank rate cut odds.. How have they changed in Q1?

    Mar 29, 2024 | 01:40 am

    Towards the end of last year, it was a case of traders being overly aggressive in pricing in rate cuts. And in the first two months of this year, we saw that pricing course correct a fair bit. But where does that leave us now? The SNB has already surprised with action and there are perhaps rate cuts coming in Q2. So, let's take stock of the situation.Here was how things looked like at the end of December, in terms of what is priced in for the whole of 2024:Federal Reserve: -156 bps (first -25 bps in March)European Central Bank: -161 bps (first -25 bps in April)Bank of England: -141 bps (first -25 bps in May)Swiss National Bank: -66 bps (first -25 bps in June)Bank of Canada: -120 bps (first -25 bps in April)Reserve Bank of Australia: -53 bps (first -25 bps in June)Reserve Bank of New Zealand: -93 bps (first -25 bps in May)And this is how things are playing out right now:Federal Reserve: -58 bps (first -25 bps in July)European Central Bank: -89 bps (first full -25 bps in July, although June is 96% priced in)Bank of England: -70 bps (first -25 bps in August)Swiss National Bank: -45 bps (second -25 bps in September)Bank of Canada: -69 bps (first -25 bps in July)Reserve Bank of Australia: -38 bps (first full -25 bps in November, although September is 97% priced in)Reserve Bank of New Zealand: -74 bps (first -25 bps in August)Those are definitely considerable shifts in pricing when compared to the end of last year. But during the course of the first three months, they might've been hardly felt. That especially if you're looking at risk trades and stocks.The dollar is one of the beneficiaries though, especially in March. That considering US economic developments might warrant the Fed to hold rates higher for longer compared to most other major economies. The odds of a June move for the Fed are only roughly 68% now. If anything, it speaks to the uncertainty in play as opposed to market pricing for the ECB.In that lieu, we could be starting to see some diverging trade opportunities from hereon. The SNB has already kick started the race to cut rates. And we're already seeing what that is doing to the Swiss franc. So, the winning currency now will be the one whose central bank will be most resistant in conforming to the above rate cut expectations. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD reaches to all-time highs near $2,230, US PCE eyed

    Mar 29, 2024 | 01:17 am

    Gold price appreciates to all-time highs near $2,230 per troy ounce, attempting to continue its winning streak for the fifth successive session on Friday.

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  • France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.3%)

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:46 am

    France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) below forecasts (0.7%) in March: Actual (0.3%)

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  • France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.8%) in March

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:45 am

    France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) registered at 2.4%, below expectations (2.8%) in March

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  • France Producer Prices (MoM) down to -1.7% in February from previous -1.3%

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:45 am

    France Producer Prices (MoM) down to -1.7% in February from previous -1.3%

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  • France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (0%)

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:45 am

    France Consumer Spending (MoM) below expectations (0.2%) in February: Actual (0%)

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  • France March preliminary CPI +2.3% vs +2.6% y/ y expected

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:45 am

    Prior +3.0%HICP +2.4% vs +2.8% y/y expectedPrior +3.2%The drop is definitely encouraging and reaffirms that the ECB is well on track to cut rates this June. Looking at the details, food price inflation fell from 3.6% in February to 1.7% in March. Meanwhile, services inflation also eased a bit more from 3.2% in the last month to 3.0% this month. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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  • USD/JPY sticks to 151.40 amid BoJ’s cautious approach regarding monetary conditions

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:24 am

    USD/JPY remains calm and hovers around 151.40 during the early European hours on Friday.

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  • Turkey Trade Balance declined to -6.77B in February from previous -6.23B

    Mar 29, 2024 | 00:00 am

    Turkey Trade Balance declined to -6.77B in February from previous -6.23B

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  • Australian Dollar edges lower amid a steady US Dollar, awaits US PCE

    Mar 28, 2024 | 23:17 pm

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses for the second successive session on Friday.

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  • Pound Sterling drifts lower to 1.2620

    Mar 28, 2024 | 23:13 pm

    The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.2620 during the early European session on Friday.

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  • GBP/USD Price Analysis: The first downside target is seen at the 1.2600-1.2605 zone

    Mar 28, 2024 | 22:55 pm

    The GBP/USD pair trades on a weaker note around 1.2620 during the early European session on Friday.

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  • Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

    Mar 28, 2024 | 22:10 pm

    Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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  • Japan Housing Starts (YoY) below forecasts (-5.5%) in February: Actual (-8.2%)

    Mar 28, 2024 | 22:08 pm

    Japan Housing Starts (YoY) below forecasts (-5.5%) in February: Actual (-8.2%)

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  • Japan Annualized Housing Starts: 0.795M (February) vs previous 0.802M

    Mar 28, 2024 | 22:08 pm

    Japan Annualized Housing Starts: 0.795M (February) vs previous 0.802M

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  • USD/CHF snaps the two-day losing streak above 0.9000 ahead of US PCE data

    Mar 28, 2024 | 22:02 pm

    The USD/CHF pair snaps the two-day losing streak near 0.9025 on Friday during the Asian session.

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  • Japan Construction Orders (YoY) down to -11% in February from previous 9.1%

    Mar 28, 2024 | 22:00 pm

    Japan Construction Orders (YoY) down to -11% in February from previous 9.1%

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  • Easter break subdues markets ahead of the weekend

    Mar 28, 2024 | 21:53 pm

    It is shaping up to be a quiet one as we look towards the session ahead today. That is to be expected though as the Easter bunny is here to visit. Major currencies are subdued with little to work with in general for the time being. US markets will be open though, and that will draw in most of the focus before the weekend.As we look towards Monday though, just be wary of USD/JPY in case of anything else. I reckon if the pair survives the thinner liquidity stretch in the coming sessions, traders might find reason to retest the 2022 and 2023 highs again in the week ahead.To those observing the holiday, have a good break and enjoy the long weekend! This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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  • EUR/GBP drops to near 0.8540 following dovish comments from ECB's policymakers

    Mar 28, 2024 | 21:48 pm

    EUR/GBP continues its downward movement, influenced by challenges facing the Euro following dovish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy.

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  • Taiwan navy chief reportedly to visit US next week

    Mar 28, 2024 | 21:43 pm

    Reuters is reporting that Taiwan's navy chief, Tang Hua, will be in the US next week to attend a military ceremony. And also to discuss boosting bilateral naval cooperation amid the threats from China.The sources say that Tang will be visiting Hawaii first for a Pacific Fleet change-of-command ceremony. After which, he will attending a conference in Washington from 8 to 10 April. There, he is expected to meet with US chief of naval operations, Lisa Franchetti.These sorts of trips are usually not publicised, as they are rather sensitive given the nature of the operation. And this especially since the US and Taiwan dose not have an official military relationship. But over the last few years, we have seen both sides step up their cooperation on this front.And as you would expect, the developments have not gone down well with China - which have stepped up their aggression on the Taiwan Strait over the last few months. This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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  • USD/CAD could halt losing streak amid a stronger Greenback, clings to 1.3540

    Mar 28, 2024 | 21:05 pm

    Fuel suppliers in Baltimore are expected to encounter delays following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.

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  • S&P 500 (SPX) looking to complete five waves impulse [Video]

    Mar 28, 2024 | 20:47 pm

    Short term Elliott Wave view in S&P 500 (SPX) suggests cycle from 1.6.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse.

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  • ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Ranges subdued by widespread holidays in Asia

    Mar 28, 2024 | 20:28 pm

    US inflation report coming up on Friday when markets will be closed - ranges to watchFederal Reserve Chair Powell speaks Friday, San Francisco Fed's Daly alsoChina Vanke says its objective is to cut interest bearing debt by 100bn yuan in next 2 yrsJapan's industry minister says to extend fuel subsidies for a "certain period"Japan finance minister Suzuki says speculative moves may be behind JPY weaknessPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0950 (vs. estimate at 7.2259)USD/JPY update - lower (in a small range) after Suzuki's verbal interventionJapan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable, speculative moves seenBank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida will appear in parliament from 10am Tokyo timeJapan February Retail Sales +4.6% y/y (vs. +3.0% expected)Japan data - February preliminary Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected +1.4%)Japan February unemployment rate 2.6% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% also)Tokyo area March inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.6%)Analyst says the Bank of Japan is “very, very close” to intervening in JPYJP Morgan analyst warns on stock flash crash - " might come one day out of the blue"Japan's CEOs less upbeat on the economy, cautious ahead of wage hikes kicking inForexlive Americas FX news wrap 28 Mar: The quarter comes to an end.Stocks, yields. USD upICYMI: Japan PM Kishida says its appropriate for the BOJ to maintain easy monetary policyEconomic calendar in Asia for Good Friday, 28 March 2024 - big day for Japanese inflation!Asia time zone holidays today - who's in and who's out on Good Friday 2024Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 28 March 2024, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas Core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo, used as an early indicator of nationwide figures due in around three weeks, rose 2.4% in March from a year earlier, matching a median market estimate and slowing slightly from a 2.5% gain in February. The other core measure, referred to as core-core that excludes fresh food and energy costs, and is interpreted as a broader price trend indicator, also slowed, coming in at 2.9% in March from 3.1% in February. Despite the slowing both are still well above the Bank of Japan 2% target rate. Separate data on Japanese factory output showed a fall vs the rise expected.If there is encouragement to be taken from today’s Japan data it was found in retail sales, these beat median forecasts and rose for a 24th consecutive month. Put above-target inflation together with better retail sales and the BOJ stays on a tightening course, though its expected to be slow.USD/JPY responded by inching just a little higher. It had barely added 10 or so tics in more than hour when Japan’s finance minister Suzuki weighed in with regular verbal intervention. The rhetoric from Suzuki and other officials has been taken up to a more forthright level. Suzuki today included mentions of:rapid FX moves speculative moves won't rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FXUSD/JPY backed off from its earlier high.In other major FX moves were also subdued. We are heading towards the next session with holidays in the UK and Europe. It’s a holiday today also in the US and Canada, although we have Powell speaking and inflation data released. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • WTI advances to near $82.80 on likelihood of OPEC+ maintaining production cuts

    Mar 28, 2024 | 20:21 pm

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price settled higher at $82.82 per barrel on Thursday.

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  • Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

    Mar 28, 2024 | 19:52 pm

    Gold price (XAU/USD) flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday.

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  • China Vanke says its objective is to cut interest bearing debt by 100bn yuan in next 2 yrs

    Mar 28, 2024 | 19:38 pm

    Vanke is (was) one of China's biggest real estate developers. Its been in troubles:China still can't shake off property market woesMoody's withdraws China property developer Vanke 'Baa3' rating (Baa3 is the lowest investment grade rating there is and that's gone.)China Vanke now says its objective is to cut interest-bearing debt by 100bn yuan in the next 2 yrsVanke's Chair says he maintains view that property market has over-corrected This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Japan's industry minister says to extend fuel subsidies for a "certain period"

    Mar 28, 2024 | 19:18 pm

    Japanese Industry Minister Ken Saito spoke on Friday regarding the government plan to extend its fuel subsidies "for a certain period".Subsidies paid to energy wholesalers aimed at limiting the domestic prices of gasoline, kerosene and other fuels began in January 2022 and have been extended multiple times. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • China’s SAFE: Will steadily promote financial market opening

    Mar 28, 2024 | 19:12 pm

    Speaking at the annual Boao Forum on Friday, Xu Zhibin, the deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), said that he “will steadily promote financial market opening.” Additional comments Will improve policies to facilitate cross-border investment.

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  • EUR/USD extends losses on dovish remarks from ECB members, trades near 1.0780

    Mar 28, 2024 | 19:11 pm

    EUR/USD continues its downward trend for the fourth consecutive day, driven by a stronger US Dollar (USD) influenced by the hawkish market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates.

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  • NZD/USD remains under selling pressure below 0.6000, US PCE data looms

    Mar 28, 2024 | 18:54 pm

    The NZD/USD pair remains under some selling pressure near 0.5970 after retracing from the 0.6000 barrier during the Asian session on Friday.

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  • Japan finance minister Suzuki says speculative moves may be behind JPY weakness

    Mar 28, 2024 | 18:41 pm

    Japan finance minister Suzuki says speculative moves may be behind JPY weakness amid falling interest rate differentials.Suzuki weighed on the yen also:Japan finance minister Suzuki says rapid FX moves are undesirable, speculative moves seenOn those shrinking interest rate differentials. Sheesh, not by much! The Bank of Japan barely lifted rates and the next move looks to be a long time away. And, in the US, for example, the Federal Reserve rate cut has been just around the corner for many months now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • PBoC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0950 vs. 7.0948 previous

    Mar 28, 2024 | 18:20 pm

    On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.0950 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0948 and 7.2259 Reuters estimates.

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  • USD/JPY update - lower (in a small range) after Suzuki's verbal intervention

    Mar 28, 2024 | 17:57 pm

    Keywords used by Suzuki included: rapid FX moves speculative moves won't rule out any steps to respond to disorderly FXThese are of a more stringent nature than the 'watching closely' sort of mumbling we usually get. These indicate we are moving closer to 'rate checks' and then actual intervention. USD/yen update (looks dramatic but check the scale): This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Japan’s Suzuki: Rapid FX moves are undesirable, speculative moves seen

    Mar 28, 2024 | 17:55 pm

    Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki offered some verbal intervention on Friday.

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  • USD/JPY holds positive ground around 151.50 following Japanese CPI data

    Mar 28, 2024 | 17:47 pm

    The USD/JPY pair holds positive ground for the second consecutive day near 151.45 on Friday during the early Asian trading hours.

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  • Japan Large Retailer Sales climbed from previous 3% to 8% in February

    Mar 28, 2024 | 16:57 pm

    Japan Large Retailer Sales climbed from previous 3% to 8% in February

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  • Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) up to 1.5% in February from previous 0.8%

    Mar 28, 2024 | 16:53 pm

    Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) up to 1.5% in February from previous 0.8%

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  • Japan data - February preliminary Industrial Production -0.1% m/m (expected +1.4%)

    Mar 28, 2024 | 16:50 pm

    Japan data - February preliminary Industrial ProductionFebruary preliminary Industrial Production is a disappointment at -0.1% m/mexpected +1.4%, prior -6.7%For the y/y -3.4%expected -2.7%, prior -1.5%Forecasts:March output is seen at +4.9% m/mApril output is seen at +3.3% m/m--A government official says factory suspension in motor vehicle production affected the decrease in overall industrial output during February. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Japan February Retail Sales +4.6% y/y (vs. +3.0% expected)

    Mar 28, 2024 | 16:50 pm

    Retail sales data for Japan in February 2024 Retail Sales +4.6% y/y for a solid beat and a 24th consecutive rise+3.0% expected, prior was +2.1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Japan February unemployment rate 2.6% (expected 2.4%, prior 2.4% also)

    Mar 28, 2024 | 16:34 pm

    While these numbers for February as not as good as those in January they are a long way from being of concern. Japanese firms have mentioned the difficulty in finding labour, so perhaps they'll find something positive to take away from this data.Japan's CEOs less upbeat on the economy, cautious ahead of wage hikes kicking inThe bigger focus was on the inflation data:Tokyo area March inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.6%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Tokyo area March inflation data: Headline 2.6% y/y (prior 2.6%)

    Mar 28, 2024 | 16:30 pm

    The overall CPI was the same as in February while both core measures fell a touch.There is nothing in this data to suggest a quickening of the expected pace of Bank of Japan rate hikes - i.e. very slow:Bank of Japan Summary - rate hikes ahead will be slow to comeThe "Excluding Fresh Food and Energy" is the closest measure to the US measure of core inflation, and while it dipped under 3% in March that 2.9% number is still strong and above the BOJ 2% target.****Tokyo area inflation data:National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPIIt measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan areaIts considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hubHistorically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for example This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • JP Morgan analyst warns on stock flash crash - " might come one day out of the blue"

    Mar 28, 2024 | 15:22 pm

    A JP Morgan analyst was out with a somewhat generic warning in the middle of the week. Warning that excessive crowding in the market’s best-performing stocks raises the risk of an imminent correction: “It just might come one day out of the blue. This has happened in the past, we’ve had flash crashes” He described the process:“One big fund starts de-levering some positions, a second fund hears that and tries to re-position, the third fund basically gets caught off guard, and the next thing you know, we start having a bigger and bigger momentum unwind.”Says much of the positive news is discounted already:“A lot of goodies have gotten priced in” sees few sources of upside surprise beyond Nvidia and the prospects for AI innovation. “That source of upside surprise is becoming more and more limited, and on the flipside, you do have more risks that are hovering in the background,” ---The challenge is the timing. Only Thursday was this:S&P and Dow close at record levelsFOMO is ruling right now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Japan's CEOs less upbeat on the economy, cautious ahead of wage hikes kicking in

    Mar 28, 2024 | 14:54 pm

    Optimism amongst Japan's corporate heads is dissipating according to a regular survey by Nikkei:50% of respondents say the economy is "expanding" or "expanding slightly", down sharply from the previous quarter's survey where 72% were upbeat50% is the lowest reading since March 2022 poll (which hit only 13.1% optimistic)45% said the economy will remain flat (from 20% in the previous poll)Reasons for the dour swing included:80.3% blamed flat consumer spendingstagnation in China was cited by 40.9%37.9% cited persistent labor shortages--Nikkei's survey is conducted quarterlyYesterday the Summary of the March BIOJ meeting indicated a slow rate cycle ahead. This survey points that way also. Bank of Japan Summary - rate hikes ahead will be slow to come This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 28 Mar: The quarter comes to an end.Stocks, yields. USD up

    Mar 28, 2024 | 14:19 pm

    S&P and Dow close at record levelsCrude oil futures settle at $83.17More from Villeroy: We need to take out insurance against a hard landing by starting cutECBs Villeroy says or inflation declined is rapid but it remains to highBofA: Maintains above-consensus year-end EUR/USD target at 1.15; here's why?European indices close the day with mixed results. Solid gains for the quarter.Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years in prisonKC Fed March manufacturing index -9 vs +3 priorGold is on track for the first ever close above $2200US February pending home sales +1.6% vs +1.5% expectedUS March UMich final consumer sentiment 79.4 vs 76.5 expectedKickstart the FX day for March 28 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSDCanadian dollar climbs after stronger January and February GDPUS initial jobless claims 210K vs 212K estimateUS Q4 GDP final reading +3.4% vs +3.2% expectedCanada January GDP +0.6% vs +0.4% expectedThe USD is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session beginsJapan PM Kishida: We are still half way in completely emerging from deflationForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar nudges higher, gold on the moveAs traders (and central bankers too) look toward the long Easter weekend, starting with Good Friday tomorrow and Easter Monday in some countries on Monday, the markets closed the quarter with gains in stocks, gains in oil, yields higher, Bitcoin (and crypto) higher and the USD higher as well. A snapshot of the Q1 numbers show:Stocks:S&P index, +10.16% (made new record highs)NASDAQ Index +9.11% (made new record highs)German DAX, +10.39% (made new record highs)France CAC was 8.78% (made new record highs)UK FTSE 100 +2.84% (still short of the record reached OnFebruary 16, 2023Japan Nikkei 225, +20.3% (made new record highs)Interest rates:US 2-year yield, 4.628% +37.8 basis pointsUS 10 year yield, 4.206%, +34 Basis pointsGerman 10 year yield 2.305%, +27.4 basis pointsFrance 10 year yield 2.81%,+25.5 basis pointsUK 10 year yield 3.946%, +40.7 basis pointsJapan 10 year yield 0.705%, +8.0 basis points (at least they "discontinued" yield curve control even though they are still buying bonds)For the central banks, in the quarter, the:Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time in 17 years to 0.0% to 0.10%. It's a start. Swiss National Bank cut rates unexpectedly by 25 basis points and became the first of the major countries to cut their rates.Federal Reserve kept the dot plot steady at 3 cuts in 2024, but subsequently some Fed officials including Bostic and Waller seem to be in favor of dialing that number down for 2024. A summer cut is still on the table. The ECB is on pace for a June cutThe Bank of England kept rates steady and lost the dissenters wanting a hikeBank of Canada kept rates steady as did the RBA and the RBNZ. Looking at the USD, it will trade tomorrow but for the quarter, the DXY, +3.162%The USD gained vs all the major currencies with the largest gain vs the JPY (despite the hike in rates in JPY) and the CHF (the CHF was lower after the rate cut by the SNB):EUR, +2.28%JPY, + 7.36%GBP, +0.80%CHF +7.14%CAD, +2.23%AUD, +4.31%NZD, +5.42%In other markets for the quarter:Crude oil rose 16.08% or $11.52 to $83.17Gold rose 8.21% or $169.42 to $2232.10Silver rose By 4.88% or $1.16Bitcoin rose from $42,258 to $70,858 or by $28,600 or 67.67%Tomorrow although most major countries are on holiday, the US core PCE data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The foreign-exchange market never sleeps, but the major US stock indices and bond markets will be closed.Wishing everyone - including Chair Powell - a Happy Easter and thank you for your support. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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  • S&P and Dow close at record levels

    Mar 28, 2024 | 13:17 pm

    The S&P and Dow Industrial Average closed at record high levels. For the S&P was the 22nd record close in 2024. The Dow Industrial Average is less than 200 points from Dow 40K. The NASDAQ index was not so fortunate as it closed down on the day. For the quarter the S&P led the way with a gain of over 10%.The final numbers are showing:Dow industrial average rose 47.29 points or 0.12% at 39807.38S&P index rose 5.86 points or 0.11% at 5254.34. The high price of 5264.85 is the new intraday high price.NASDAQ index fell -20.07 points or -0.12% at 16379.45.The Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks rose 10.19 points or 0.48% at 2124.54.For the first quarter, the gains were the largest to start the year since 2019.Dow industrial average rose 5.62%S&P index rose 10.16%NASDAQ index rose 9.11%Russell 2000 rose 4.808%What did some of the favored stocks do in the quarter (PS it wasn't all the Magnificent 7):Amazon, +18.63%Nvidia, +82.29%Super Micro Computer, +255.11%Celsius +51.87%Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, + 82.47%Meta Platforms +37.28%Apple -10.95%Alphabet +7.95%Microsoft +11.8%Micron +38.14%AMD +22.44%Caterpillar +23.93%Tesla -29.25%Broadcom, +18.74%Nike -13.44%Netflix +24.74%Costco 10.99%Home Depot +10.69%Disney +35.5%Boeing -26.05%Shake Shack +40.35%The US stock market will be closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday. However, This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Economic calendar in Asia for Good Friday, 28 March 2024 - big day for Japanese inflation!

    Mar 28, 2024 | 13:08 pm

    Japanese (Tokyo) CPI, and jobs, data is due at 2330 GMT, which is 1930 US Eastern time.The other data follows at 2350 / 1950.Japanese and mainland China markets are open today.Asia time zone holidays today - who's in and who's out on Good Friday 2024****For the headline Tokyo CPI the expected I've seen is 2.5%, slightly down from 2.6% but still above the Bank of Japan target level of 2%. Last week the Bank of Japan raised rates for the first time in 17 years. The decision was a drawn-out one. I linked to a piece from Reuters which looked at the process, and which implicitly raises the question of much independence the BOJ really has (a question plenty of people have raised before):"How the BOJ's plan for a smooth exit from negative rates unraveled"Yesterday we had the 'Summary' of that meeting published. In a nutshell the summary of the Summary is that it'll be a very slow rate hike cycle going forward, which will keep yen under pressure as a carry currency.BOJ 'Summary' of the historic March 2024 meetingAs for today, I doubt the Tokyo area inflation data will be a smoking gun for a near term rate rise, but it'll be an interesting data point regardless. National-level CPI data for this month will follow in about three weeks, it takes longer to gather and collate the national data.Tokyo CPI is a sub-index of the national CPIIt measures the change in prices of goods and services in the Tokyo metropolitan areaIts considered a leading indicator of national CPI trends because Tokyo is the largest city in Japan and is a major economic hubHistorically, Tokyo CPI data has been just slightly higher than national Japan CPI data. The cost of living in Tokyo is a touch higher than in most other parts of Japan. Higher rents, for exampleThis snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Asia time zone holidays today - who's in and who's out on Good Friday 2024

    Mar 28, 2024 | 13:00 pm

    The good news is that Japan and mainland China are open on Friday, 29 March 2024.New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore are closed.The UK and Europe will be closed.US markets will be closed on Friday also, stock exchanges, futures and physical bond trading. US bond trading hours are set by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA). SIFMA is recommending the US Bond market to be closed that day. So it is.Do note that Friday will bring comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell. He will be speaking at a San Fransico Federal Reserve branch event:at 8.30 am PDT, which is 11.30 am US Eastern timeAnd, of course, major data is due to be released (1230 GMT, 0830 US Eastern time) the Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 28 March 2024, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

    Mar 28, 2024 | 12:59 pm

    Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Note Japanese and mainland China markets are open today, FWIW. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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  • BofA: Maintains above-consensus year-end EUR/USD target at 1.15; here's why?

    Mar 28, 2024 | 10:33 am

    Synopsis: Bank of America reaffirmed its bullish stance on EUR/USD, projecting the pair to reach 1.15 by the end of 2024, in contrast to the more conservative consensus forecast of 1.10 for this year and 1.14 by 2025. BofA's optimism stems from expectations of a weaker dollar driven by moderating inflation and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts, enabling a shift towards equilibrium in USD value.Key Points:Bullish on EUR/USD: BofA stands firm on its year-end target for EUR/USD at 1.15, anticipating most of the currency pair's appreciation to occur in the second half of the year. This outlook positions BofA above the current market consensus.Consensus Comparison: The market consensus pegs EUR/USD at 1.10 for 2024, and 1.14 by 2025. BofA's forecast extends further, envisioning EUR/USD at at 1.15 by end of 2024 and 1.20 in 2025.Unchanged Core USD Forecasts: BofA's broader forecasts for the USD against G10 currencies remain steady. The bank anticipates broad USD depreciation in 2024, fueled by declining inflation rates and anticipated monetary easing by the Fed.EUR-CHF Adjustment: The only recent adjustment in BofA's currency forecasts was an uplift in EUR-CHF projections following the Swiss National Bank's unexpected decision to lower interest rates.Conclusion: BofA's steadfast prediction for EUR/USD to appreciate significantly by the end of 2024 reflects a bullish divergence from the market consensus. The bank's expectations hinge on a broader theme of USD depreciation against G10 currencies, driven by moderating inflation and prospective rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This outlook suggests a return towards a more balanced USD valuation as the year progresses, particularly in the latter half.For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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  • European indices close the day with mixed results. Solid gains for the quarter.

    Mar 28, 2024 | 10:06 am

    The major European indices are closing the day with mixed results. The German DAX and France CAC closed at all-time high record levelsGerman DAX rose 27.40 points or 0.15% at 18504.50. Record high closeFrance CAC rose 1.01 points or 0.01% at 8205.81. Record high closeUK FTSE 100 rose 20.64 points or 0.26% at 7952.63. Highest closing level since February 2023Spain's Ibex is closing down -36.70 points or -0.33% at 11074.59. The index closed at its highest level since May 2017 yesterday.Italy's FTSE MIB is closing down minus 9.34.0 or -0.03% at 34750.35For the first quarter, the major indices are closing higher led by Italy's FTSE MIB which rose over 14.0%:German DAX, +10.46%France CAC +8.78%UK FTSE 100 +2.84%Spain's Ibex +9.63%Italy's FTSE MIB, +14.49% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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  • KC Fed March manufacturing index -9 vs +3 prior

    Mar 28, 2024 | 08:04 am

    Prior was +3Composite -7 vs -4 prior This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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  • United States GDP Expanded in Fourth Quarter by 3.4% - 28 March 2024

    Mar 28, 2024 | 07:44 am

    US GDP rises 3.4%, Canada GDP rebounds; US dollar steady, while stock markets show little movement following the announcement.

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  • US February pending home sales +1.6% vs +1.5% expected

    Mar 28, 2024 | 07:00 am

    Prior was -4.9%Index vs 74.3 prior revised 274.4Pending home sales for February 2024 rise 1.6% versus 1.5% expectedIndex for February 75.6Sales are down 7% from a year agoLooking at the regional breakdowns:The Northeast Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) decreased by 0.3% from the previous month to 63.4, marking a 9.0% decline from February 2023.In the Midwest, the PHSI surged by 10.6% to 81.6 in February, a decrease of 2.5% compared to one year ago.The South PHSI experienced a 1.1% increase to 89.5 in February, but fell 8.5% from the previous year.The West index dropped by 6.5% in February to 57.1, reflecting a 7.9% decrease from February 2023.Pending home sales are off of signed contracts.Active listings are up 6% according to Redfin.From the National Associations of Realtors Lawrence Yun:"The high-cost regions in the Northeast and West experienced pullbacks due to affordability challenges, Home prices rising faster than income growth is not healthy and adds challenges for first-time buyers. There will be a steady rise in inventory from recent growth in home building. Additionally, many sellers, who delayed listing in the past two years, will begin to put their homes on the market to move to a different home that better fits their new life circumstances – such as changes in family composition, jobs, commuting patterns and retirees wanting to be closer to their grandkids." This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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  • Forex Today: Fed’s Waller: No Rush to Cut Rates, Prospect of Hikes Remote

    Mar 28, 2024 | 01:25 am

    US Fed’s Waller Reiterates Ongoing Fed Message of Slow Path to Rate Cuts; USD/JPY Remains Below Record High Near ¥152; Cocoa Futures Make Another Record High Close; Gold Also Makes Record High Closing Price

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  • Aussie dollar continues to hold above US$0.65

    Mar 27, 2024 | 17:00 pm

    AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is relatively unchanged again this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6533 at the time of writing. On the local data front yesterday, inflation has held steady for the second month in a row, as cheaper meat and seafood helped offset increases in rents and automotive fuel. The monthly index of consumer prices rose only 3.4% in the year to February, stabilising near the pace of the increases in January and December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. Economists had predicted February’s CPI would come in at 3.5%. Excluding volatile items such as fresh produce and fuel, inflation fell from 4.1% in January to 3.9% last month. Holiday and accommodation prices continued to fall, offsetting price rises in other categories. The category’s prices fell 1.3% in the year to February, falling more slowly than the two previous months, reflecting boosts from Taylor Swift’s blockbuster Eras tour. The AUD has faced downward pressure following the release of Westpac's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday, which dipped 1.8% to 84.4 in March 2024 from February's 86.0, easing from 20-month highs. Key Movers The US dollar Index saw its second consecutive day of gains amid a risk-off sentiment, driven by anticipation surrounding the upcoming release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) scheduled for Friday. However, the decline in US Treasury yields may be attributed to the expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts. This sentiment could limit the advances of the US dollar. On the data front, US durable goods orders increased by 1.4% in February, against the 1.3% expected and previous decline of 6.9%. US durable goods orders excluding defense rose by 2.2% in February, compared to the expected 1.1% and 7.9% previous decline. US Housing Price Index decreased MoM by 0.1% in January, against the December’s increase of 0.1%. The Pound sterling fell to near 1.2600 in Wednesday’s early American session. The broader appeal remains weak as investors expect the Bank of England (BoE) will start reducing interest rates sooner than previously anticipated. The BoE said last week in its monetary policy statement that the central bank is not at a point where interest rates can be reduced. However, policymakers didn’t rule out the market’s view of two or three rate cuts this year. Investors will keenly focus on the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, published on Good Friday. The annual Core PCE is forecasted to have grown at a steady pace of 2.8%. Daily Commentary will be on break for the long weekend from Friday, March 29th to Monday, April 1st and will resume Tuesday, April 2nd. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6630 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5930 - 0.6130 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9230 - 1.9430 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0780 - 1.0980 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8760 - 0.8960 ▼

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  • Forex Today: Japanese Yen Hits 34-Year Low

    Mar 27, 2024 | 00:13 am

    USD/JPY Hits Record High Near ¥152, Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Cocoa Futures Surpass $10,000 to Hit All-Time High; Aussie CPI Unchanged

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  • Aussie dollar holds above US$0.65

    Mar 26, 2024 | 17:00 pm

    AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is relatively unchanged this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at US$0.6531 at the time of writing. The Australian dollar extended its gains on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at US$0.6557, up 0.26%. The broader outlook reveals that the bears exhibit a somewhat stronger presence, which could maintain a certain level of pressure on the pair. There were no local data releases yesterday. Looking ahead today all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.5%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. That could set back expectations for a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has kept rates unchanged at 4.35% for four straight times. The markets are of the view that the RBA’s tightening cycle is done and have priced in a rate cut later in the year. Still, the RBA hasn’t ruled out rate hikes, with inflation still well above the 2% target. Finally, on Thursday we will see the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures. Key Movers On the data front on Monday, the US February New Home Sales dropped 0.3% MoM from a 1.7% gain in January, below the market expectations for a 2.3% MoM rise. Meanwhile, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey fell to -14.4 in March from the previous reading of -11.3. Overnight we saw the release of US Durable Goods Orders for February, which roundly beat expectations, according to data from the US Census Bureau. The data showed headline Durable Goods Orders rising 1.4% when 1.3% had been forecast, and Durable Goods Orders ex Defense rising 2.2% when 1.1% had been estimated. Durable Goods ex Transport also beat forecasts, coming in at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. Finally, Nondefense Capital Goods ex-Aricraft rose 0.7% versus 0.1% expected. The US PCE report on Friday will be in the spotlight. The headline PCE is estimated to show an increase of 0.4% MoM, while the Core CPE is projected to rise by 0.3% MoM. The pound faces pressure near US$1.2650 against the US Dollar in Tuesday’s early American session as the latter rebounds. The GBP/USD pair exhibits falls as investors expect that the Bank of England will be more dovish this year than previously anticipated, driven by lower-than-anticipated inflation data in January and February. A senior Bank of England policymaker has warned that financial markets are expecting too many interest rate cuts this year and that the UK central bank is unlikely to move before the US Federal Reserve. Catherine Mann, an external member of the Bank’s rate-setting monetary policy committee (MPC), said there were risks that UK inflation could persist at higher levels than in the US or the eurozone. Last month the Bank’s monetary policy committee voted by a majority to keep interest rates at the current level of 5.25%, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6430 - 0.6630 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5920 - 0.6120 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0760 - 1.0960 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8760 - 0.8960 ▼

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  • Forex Today: Cocoa Futures Break $9,000 for Record High

    Mar 26, 2024 | 00:38 am

    Cocoa Futures Gain 8% in a Day; US Stocks, Gold Remain Bullish; Japanese Officials Try to Talk Up Yen; Bitcoin Rises Above $70k Despite Record Crypto Fund Outflows

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  • Aussie dollar continues to trade above US$0.65

    Mar 25, 2024 | 17:00 pm

    AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at US$0.6538 at the time of writing. Yesterday, The Aussie dollar bounced off last Friday’s low of US$0.6508 and is climbing but faces a key resistance level at US$0.6550. The Australian dollar receives upward momentum as the ASX 200 Index extends its winning streak, led by gains in the mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie dollar is bolstered by a stronger Chinese yuan (CNY), with the People's Bank of China (PBoC) setting the mid-rate for the onshore yuan significantly higher than expected. Looking ahead today, we will see the Westpac Consumer Sentiment a survey of about 1,200 consumers that asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment and climate for major purchases. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.5%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Thursday we will see the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures. Key Movers Overnight the Pound sterling had a mild recovery against the Greenback in the mid-North American session, as the Greenback remains offered amid speculations the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates in June. At its March meeting last week, the Fed held the benchmark rate to the 5.25%-5.5% range. After that meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers are likely to cut interest rates later this year. Still, only once they have greater confidence that inflation is moving toward its 2% target. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.2635. gains 0.32%. On the data front, US housing data was weaker than expected as New Home Sales slumped 0.3%, with sales coming at 0.662 million, below estimates of  0.675 million and January’s 0.664 million. Elsewhere, the Chicago Fed announced the National Activity Index saw improvement, moving from -0.54 to 0.05, with positive developments across all four index categories. The tiny decline registered was likely owed to an uptick in mortgage rates during the month. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.8% in February, from 6.6% the month prior. Moving forward, a structural shortfall of available single-family homes and home builders' ability to bridge the affordability gap with price incentives, should continue as tailwinds and support an improving sales pace this year. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6440 - 0.6640 ▲AUD/EUR: 0.5930 - 0.6130 ▲GBP/AUD: 1.9200 - 1.9400 ▼AUD/NZD: 1.0800 - 1.1000 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8800 - 0.9000 ▲

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  • Aussie dollar holds above US$0.65

    Mar 24, 2024 | 17:00 pm

    AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback currently trading at 0.6508 at the time of writing. The Aussie dollar traded back down at the bottom of its multi-week range in the lower 0.6500s on Friday, after positive US data led to a reversal in the pair from its 0.6635 Thursday highs. On the data front last week the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% from 4.1% in February, and the number of new employees hit 116,500, a number well above the average. Both data points beat expectations of 4.0% and 40,000 respectively. A deeper dig into Australia’s labor market statistics and seasonal effects, however, suggests the incredible data in February obscured a much more modest underlying trend. Looking ahead this week and on Tuesday we will see the Westpac Consumer Sentiment a survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment, and climate for major purchases. On Wednesday all eyes will be on the Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to rise from 3.4% to 3.5%. Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Finally, on Thursday we will see the release of the monthly Retail Sales figures. Key Movers In the US on Friday the S&P Global Services PMI exhibited a slight decline in March, dropping to 51.7 from 52.3, slightly below the expected reading of 52.0. Conversely, the Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.5, surpassing expectations of 51.7 and the previous figure of 52.2. However, the Composite PMI showed a slight dip to 52.2 from the previous 52.5. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was forced into the low side around three-quarters a percent as US equities drifted in multiple directions on Friday. Most of the US equity market’s major sectors were in the red on Friday, with Real Estate down around 1.25%, closely followed by the Financial Sector which fell 1.21%. The Communications Services Sector closed up around 0.85% as telecoms rebounded from recent selling pressure. The US economy is holding resilient with a strong labor market and inflation remaining sticky. Next week, February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will provide additional guidance to markets. The Pound Sterling remains vulnerable against the US dollar in Friday’s early New York session as the market sentiment is quite bearish. The GBP/USD pair fails to find support as increasing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates this year outweigh February Retail Sales data, which broadly beat market expectations. The United Kingdom Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that monthly Retail Sales were unchanged after increasing by a significant 3.6% in January, a figure that was upwardly revised from 3.4%. Investors had anticipated sales to decline by 0.3%. On an annual basis, sales contracted by 0.5% against expectations of a 0.7% decline. The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2558 at the time of writing. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6400 - 0.6600 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5900 - 0.6100 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9150 - 1.9350 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0650 - 1.0850 ▼AUD/CAD: 0.8750 - 0.8950 ▼

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  • Aussie dollar trades back down below US$0.66

    Mar 21, 2024 | 17:00 pm

    AUD - Australian dollar The Australian dollar is slightly weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback, currently trading at 0.6569 at time of writing. The Aussie dollar reached a high of 0.6634 yesterday, but traded back down at the lows of the day, during the US session on Thursday, after a batch of relatively strong American data helped the US dollar (USD) claw back lost ground. On the data front yesterday a shock surge in employment last month has seen the unemployment rate tumble back to levels not seen since September last year. The unemployment rate has dropped back to 3.7 per cent with more than 116,000 extra Australians in employment last month, compared with January, according to seasonally adjusted data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). The estimated 116,500 increase in employment was the biggest monthly jobs gain since the east coast COVID lockdowns ended in November 2021, and the largest on record outside of the pandemic period. Economists were generally expecting about 40,000 extra people to be employed last month and an unemployment rate of 4 per cent. Markets are currently pricing in an 80 per cent chance of rates falling by August, while a rate cut by September is almost fully priced in, however any rate move before then is seen as very unlikely. Looking ahead today and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the Financial Stability Review. It's an assessment of conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability, the evidence on strains and imbalances can provide insight into the future of monetary policy. Key Movers In the US, overnight we saw the release of US PMI data for March, Initial Jobless Claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which all supported the USD. Business activity in the US private sector continued to expand at a healthy pace in early March, with the S&P Global Composite PMI coming in at 52.2. This reading came in slightly below the February's 52.5. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.5 from 52.2 in the same period, while S&P Global Services PMI edged lower to 51.7 from 52.3. The latest Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index remained in positive territory for a second straight month, indicating continued expansion. In March, the index inched down to 3.2 from 5.2 in February, coming in above the forecast of -2.6. In the latest report the index remained in positive territory for a second straight month. This is only the fourth positive reading for the index in the past 22 months. In other words, the index has had 18 negative readings in the past 22 months, which more closely resembles those periods during recessions. While the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, sales of previously owned homes increased by the most in a year in February, signs the economy remained on solid footing in the first quarter. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ending March 16, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 215,000 claims in the latest week. Claims have been mostly bouncing around a 200,000-213,000 range since February. Despite a flurry of high-profile layoffs at the start of the year, employers have largely been hoarding labour after struggling to find workers during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Expected RangesAUD/USD: 0.6465 - 0.6665 ▼AUD/EUR: 0.5940 - 0.6140 ▼GBP/AUD: 1.9140 - 1.9340 ▲AUD/NZD: 1.0750 - 1.0950 ▲AUD/CAD: 0.8780 - 0.8980 ▼

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  • United States Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates, Remains Cautious

    Mar 21, 2024 | 04:26 am

    The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight time at its meeting on March 20. The US dollar fell against the major currencies following the announcement.

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  • Forex Today: Fed Says 3 Rate Cuts in 2024, Stocks, Gold Boom

    Mar 21, 2024 | 00:07 am

    Fed Gives Dovish Surprise by Forecasting 3 Cuts in 2024; Markets Await BoE, SNB; Gold, Stock Markets Reach Record Highs; Japanese Yen Regains Ground; Bitcoin Pares Losses; UK CPI Falls

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  • Forex Today: Markets Await FOMC Meeting

    Mar 20, 2024 | 00:06 am

    FOMC Expected to Leave Rate at 5.50%; Japanese Yen Continues to Fall After BoJ; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await UK Inflation Data, New Zealand GDP

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  • Forex Today: Bank of Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

    Mar 19, 2024 | 00:26 am

    BoJ Makes First Rate Hike Since 2007, Japanese Stocks Rally, Yen Weakens; RBA Leaves Rates at 4.35%; Cocoa Futures Slightly Lower After Record High Yesterday; Bitcoin Weaker; Markets Await Canadian Inflation Data

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  • Forex Today: Markets Expecting First BoJ Rate Hike in 17 Years

    Mar 18, 2024 | 00:19 am

    90% Expect BoJ to Ditch Negative Rates Policy Tuesday, Japanese Stocks Rallying; Bitcoin Rising After Another Record High Thursday; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead With Dramatic Gains

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  • Forex Today: Markets Await US PPI

    Mar 14, 2024 | 00:24 am

    US PPI Expected at 0.2%; Bitcoin Makes Another Record High Above $73,000; Cocoa Futures Roar Ahead.

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  • Forex Today: US Inflation Ticks Higher to 3.2%

    Mar 12, 2024 | 23:29 pm

    US CPI Rises Unexpectedly; S&P 500 Makes Record High Close; Bitcoin Makes All-Time High Above $73,000

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  • US Inflation Rises Unexpectedly to 3.2%

    Mar 12, 2024 | 07:02 am

    The US consumer price index (CPI) climbed 3.2% year-on-year in February, up from 3.1% in January and above the market estimate of 3.1%.

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  • Forex Today: Markets Expecting Unchanged US Inflation Data

    Mar 12, 2024 | 01:03 am

    US CPI Seen at 3.1%; Bitcoin Hits New Record Below $73,000; Gold’s Bullish Momentum Starts to Pause

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  • Forex Today: Gold, Bitcoin Looking Bullish Near Friday’s Record Highs

    Mar 11, 2024 | 00:17 am

    Gold, Bitcoin Advancing Again; Yen Higher on Japanese Rate Hike Bets and GDP Growth

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  • ECB Maintains Interest Rates, Revises Lower Inflation Forecast

    Mar 7, 2024 | 14:06 pm

    The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its deposit rate at a record high of 4.00% at today’s policy meeting. This decision was widely expected, and the Euro’s response has been muted.

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  • Forex Today: Gold Makes New Record High Above $2161

    Mar 6, 2024 | 23:41 pm

    Gold Powers to New All-Time High; Powell Says Inflation Progress Not Assured; Japanese Rate Hike Seen Likely as Wages Rise; Bank of Canada Holds Rates; Markets Await ECB Meeting

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  • Forex Today: Gold, Bitcoin Set New Record Highs

    Mar 5, 2024 | 23:18 pm

    Gold & Bitcoin Briefly Reach New All-Time Highs, Bitcoin Plunges Then Recovers; Markets Await Fed Chair Powell Testimony; Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Rates

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  • Forex Today: Bitcoin Retreats Just Shy of Record High

    Mar 5, 2024 | 01:01 am

    Bitcoin Makes New 2-Year High Just Below $69,000; WTI Crude Oil Retreats From Key Resistance Near $80.50; Swiss Inflation Ticks Higher; Markets Await Fed Chair Powell Testimony

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  • Forex Today: Major Stock Markets Advance to Record Highs

    Mar 4, 2024 | 00:14 am

    NASDAQ, S&P 500, DAX, Nikkei 225 All Reach All-Time Highs; Bitcoin Makes New 2-Year High; WTI Crude Oil Trying to Break Key Resistance Around $80.50; Swiss CPI Data Due Later

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  • Forex Today: Bitcoin Powers to New 2-Year High Above $63,000

    Feb 28, 2024 | 23:35 pm

    Bitcoin Strongly Bid, Advancing to Long-Term Record Price; Yen Gains as Bank of Japan Signals Policy Shift Coming Closer; Fed Officials Say Data Will Guide Rate Path

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  • New Zealand Central Bank Maintains Rates, New Zealand Dollar Slides

    Feb 28, 2024 | 02:54 am

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