Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

GBPJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:52 am

GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI beating expectations and the Manufacturing PMI missing forecasts and slipping back into contraction. The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the board.The market expects the first rate cut in August.JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.GBPJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY fell once again into the lower bound of the channel where the buyers piled in to push the price back into the highs. The pair continues to get rejected from the 193.00 resistance and this led to a rangebound price action. The buyers will need to break through the level to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the lower bound of the channel to position for a drop into the 187.96 level. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the range between the 193.00 resistance and the 190.00 support. The market participants will likely continue to play the range by selling at resistance and buying at support until we get a catalyst to trigger a breakout on either side. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the latest push higher diverged with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for another reversal from the resistance into the support. The sellers should step in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the lower bound of the channel with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, should wait to buy around the support. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude the week with the BoJ Rate Decision, the Tokyo CPI and later in the day, the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Forecast for the EUR/USD pair on April 24, 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:25 am

The EUR/USD pair on Tuesday rose to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0696) and consolidated above it. Thus, the growth process can be continued toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% (1.0764). A consolidation of quotes below the level of 1.0696 will work in favor of the American currency and some decline toward the corrective level of 127.2% (1.0619). The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2), and the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9. Thus, we are dealing with a "bearish" trend, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave must break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9). Or the next downward wave fails to break the last low from April 16. Until then, the bears will maintain their advantage.The information background on Tuesday was quite rich. In the European Union, four interesting reports on business activity were released at once. In Germany, the service sector rose to 53.3 points, but the manufacturing sector remained very low in April - only 42.2. In the European Union, the service sector rose to 52.9 points, but the manufacturing sector decreased to 45.6. Traders paid more attention to the service sectors, which helped bulls start a new attack in the morning. In the second half of the day, business activity indices in the US were released, which turned out to be worse than traders' expectations. Thus, for the second time in a day, bull traders received informational support, which helped the European currency show growth. However, in this case, we are only talking about the formation of a corrective wave upward, after which the main "bearish" trend may resume. On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the corrective level of 23.6% (1.0644) and rebounded from it after the formation of two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator, dropping below 20. Thus, a reversal in favor of the European currency occurred, and the process of growth toward the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0765) began. There are no new impending divergences observed for any of the indicators. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the level of 1.0644 will allow for a resumption of decline towards the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% (1.0450).Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:During the last reporting week, speculators opened 3493 long contracts and 23992 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 179 thousand, while short contracts amount to 167 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we see that the number of short positions has increased from 92 thousand to 167 thousand over the past 3 months. Over the same period, the number of long positions has decreased from 211 thousand to 179 thousand. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need strong informational support to resume the "bullish" trend. However, the information background has only been supporting bears lately. The European currency could have lost many more positions over the past few weeks.News Calendar for the US and European Union:US – Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).April 24, the economic events calendar contains only one entry, but an important one. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment today may be moderate, but only in the second half of the day.Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Advice:Selling the pair is possible today upon consolidation below the level of 1.0696 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0619. Buying the euro is possible upon closing above the level of 1.0696 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0764, but bulls are currently weak, so the growth may end very quickly. Caution should be exercised with purchases.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 24th. The pound felt strong on Tuesday

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:20 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday consolidated above the zone of 1.2363–1.2370 and rose to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2464). A rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the American currency and some decline toward the zone of 1.2363–1.2370. Consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 1.2464 will increase the probability of further growth towards the next level at 1.2517. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave has yet to come close to the last peak from April 9. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion at the moment. The first sign of bulls transitioning to the offensive could be a breakthrough of the peak from April 9, but bulls need to cover a distance of about 280 points to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715. It is unlikely that a trend change to "bullish" should be expected in the coming days. A new downward wave, if weak and does not break the low from April 22, may also indicate a trend change.On Tuesday, the information background was positive for the pound. American business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors in April turned out to be weaker than in March, while in the UK, the service sector grew so much that the index for the manufacturing sector no longer mattered. Bulls received the necessary support, but after the 9-day formation of a downward wave, a corrective wave was imminent in any case. Yesterday, the information background coincided with traders' desire to form an upward wave. Today, much will depend on the report on durable goods orders in the US. Forecasts for this report are quite high, but they may be exceeded, as has happened more than once. Bears may take revenge for yesterday's day. On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the pound and returned to the level of 1.2450. A rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the American currency and the resumption of decline towards the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2289). The downward trend corridor still characterizes the current sentiment of traders as "bearish." Consolidation of the pair's rate above the level of 1.2450 will allow further growth of the pound towards the upper trend line of the trend channel.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category for the last reporting week became less "bullish." The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 8200 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 11433 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bullish" but has weakened in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is almost absent now: 72 thousand versus 63 thousand.The prospects for the pound to decline are still in place. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 62 thousand to 72 thousand, while the number of short positions has increased from 47 thousand to 63 thousand. This explains the relatively weak decline of the pound. Over time, bulls will start getting rid of buy positions or increasing sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. Bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete reluctance to go on the offensive in recent months, but inflation reports in the US and UK may give them new strength.News Calendar for the US and UK:US – Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).On Wednesday, the economic events calendar contains only one entry in the US. The impact of the information background on the market sentiment today may be of moderate strength.Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader Advice:Selling the pound is possible today on the hourly chart with a rebound from the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2363–1.2370. Buying the pair was possible when rebounding from the level of 1.2300 with a target at 1.2363 and with consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.2363–1.2370 with a target at 1.2464. All targets were reached. New purchases are possible with a rebound from the zone of 1.2363–1.2370 or with consolidation above the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2517.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro edges lower despite stronger German business confidence

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:19 am

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. German shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 […]

Overview for the GBP/USD pair on April 24th. Dave Ramsden expects inflation to slow down

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:02 am

The GBP/USD currency pair corrected upwards on Tuesday after falling on Monday. Recall that on Monday, there were no significant reasons for the pair's decline, but at the same time, this movement was the most logical and consistent of all possible. The pound had been overbought for a long time, and the market refused to sell it under any fundamental or macroeconomic events for 4 months. Now, the British pound is somewhat "restoring fair value" against the dollar. And for the British currency to continue its decline, positive news from the US every day and negative news from the UK are absolutely unnecessary.By the way, yesterday in the UK, business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors were published. It turned out that business activity in the service sector increased significantly, stronger than forecasts, while business activity in the manufacturing sector turned out to be significantly lower than forecasts. However, the market somehow "saw" only the first indicator, so the British pound appreciated during the day. However, we believe that the pair simply started a technical correction, and the business activity indices only acted as a catalyst for the rebound.There can be two reasons for the technical correction. The first one is the triple oversold condition of the CCI indicator. This indicator entered the "-250" level three times, and the second time, we did not even see a minimal upward retracement. The indicator does not indicate the overall oversold condition of the pound, only the local one. In a downward trend, each entry into oversold territory is just a reason for a rebound. Therefore, the pair's decline will continue in any case.The second reason is fundamental. Last week, one of the Bank of England representatives, Dave Ramsden, stated that the disinflation process in Britain could stall. Recall that recently, British inflation has shown good slowing rates, giving grounds to assume that the British regulator will start easing monetary policy even earlier than the Fed. However, if inflation stops falling, then there will be no reason for the Bank of England to cut rates. Just as there is none now for the Fed. In this case, both central banks will find themselves in approximately the same conditions.This should not affect the overall prospects for the pound's decline but may slow down this process. Mr. Ramsden also said that he expects further inflation declines over time and believes that this process will no longer be as fast and stable as it was in the last year.Overall, a regular upward correction is taking place at the moment. It may even be relatively strong, but we do not consider it advisable to try to work out the upward movement. Even if the price exceeds the moving average line. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair for the last 5 trading days is 87 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Wednesday, April 24, we expect movement within the range bounded by the levels of 1.2366 and 1.2540. The senior linear regression channel is directed downward, indicating a downward trend now. The CCI indicator entered the oversold territory three times recently, which caused a surge in the British currency. However, this should only be a retracement or correction.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.2390S2 – 1.2329S3 – 1.2268Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.2451R2 – 1.2512R3 – 1.2573Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair completed a flat on the 24-hour TF, and this is the most important thing now. We still expect movement only to the south, and now, when the level of 1.2500 is overcome, one can consider selling the pair with targets at 1.2329 and 1.2268. Buying the British pound when the price exits the sideways channel through the lower boundary is not relevant. The pair may rebound upward, as the CCI indicator entered the oversold territory three times, but we do not consider it advisable to work out this correction.Explanation of illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator – its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) means that a trend reversal towards the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:45 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite extended the rally following the weaker than expected US PMIs. The commentary was a mixed bag though as there was good news on the inflation front but bad news on the labour market side. The market evidently focused on the fact that it reduced the chances of a more hawkish interest rates path for now which triggered a relief rally. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday extended the rally and eventually closed the gap with the blue 8 moving average as the market came into better balance after the last week’s selloff. We can see that there’s also the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level adding confluence to the moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 15929 resistance.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the sellers will have an even better risk to reward setup around the 15929 resistance where they will find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers will want to break above that resistance zone to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a minor trendline defining the bullish momentum with the blue 8 moving average adding extra confluence. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline to keep bidding the market up into the 15929 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Gold Technical: Is the bull run over after its worst daily decline in 2 years?

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:37 am

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% […]

Overview for the EUR/USD pair on April 24th. The EU services sector has pushed the euro upwards

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:26 am

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to correct on Tuesday. More precisely, it continued to trade within the sideways range of 1.0620–1.0681 for most of the day. During the day, there was a slight increase, which was provoked by business activity indices, which will be discussed below. Overall, it can be noted that the pair's volatility remained low. As shown in the illustration below, there were two volatile days last week that gave hope to traders for the end of the "low volatility period." However, as it is evident now, these hopes were not destined to materialize. Excluding those two days, the pair's volatility has been consistently between 40 and 60 points for the past few months. Market movements, if present, could be stronger.Yesterday, business activity indices in the service and manufacturing sectors were published in the EU and separately in Germany. We warned earlier that market reactions should be expected if the actual values of the indicators significantly differ from the forecasts. In both cases, the service sector business activity indices turned out to be significantly higher than expected, which provoked a rise in the euro by about 50 points. However, this increase practically did not affect the overall technical and fundamental picture. And the euro managed to lose most of the gains "earned by hard work" during the remaining part of the day.The technical picture has not changed, as the price remains within the sideways channel, within a limited price range. The downward trend persists, and after the current pause, the decline of the euro should resume. The overall fundamental background could not be affected by the business activity indices. Currently, inflation figures and the prospects of the ECB and the Fed's monetary policies are crucial for the market. These two factors exert up to 90% influence on market sentiment.As we have repeatedly mentioned, market sentiment is becoming more "hawkish" regarding the Fed's rates and more "dovish" regarding the ECB's rates. It is now clear that the Fed will begin the cycle of easing monetary policy not just later than the market expected at the beginning of the year but much later than those expectations. And much later than the first rate cut in the EU. Naturally, with such a fundamental background, demand for the euro should only decrease, as we have been discussing since the end of last year. Therefore, we still expect the pair to decline to the range of 1.00–1.02. Of course, this does not mean that the pair will now decline every day, but any instrument cannot show a trending movement every day.The macroeconomic background, despite relatively positive business activity indices in the EU, has long been much weaker than that of the US. It cannot provide any significant support for the European currency. Therefore, no matter how you look at the overall picture of the situation, only one conclusion suggests itself – a further decline of the euro to parity. The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair for the last 5 trading days as of April 24 is 54 points and is characterized as "low." We expect movement of the pair between the levels of 1.0651 and 1.0759 on Wednesday. The senior linear regression channel has turned downward, and the global downward trend persists. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory, but we expect only a slight upward correction.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.0681S2 – 1.0620S3 – 1.0559Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.0742R2 – 1.0803R3 – 1.0864Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has resumed and continues its downward trend, as we expected. The European currency should continue to decline almost in any case, so we continue to consider sales with targets at 1.0602 and 1.0559. Buying is considered impractical, even if the price is above the moving average line. The current fundamental background suggests that only a rise in the dollar can be expected. Corrections are possible on technical grounds, but selling now is the most reasonable option.Explanation of illustrations: Linear regression channels – help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means the trend is strong.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) – determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted.Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator – its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) means that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Video market update for April 24, 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:55 am

Potential for the downside movement on the NAS100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/CAD Analysis: Sentiment Getting Tested as Known Values Reemerge - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:50 am

The USD/CAD is near the 1.36775 mark as of this writing, this after the currency pair has managed to sustain lower increments attained in early trading this morning.

USD/JPY Forecast: Dips are Opportunities - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:50 am

The US dollar continues to squeeze higher against the Japanese yen, as the interest rate differential continues to be a major driver.

NZD/USD Analysis: Slight Bounce Upwards but Lower Range Still Lingers - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:40 am

The currency pair has managed to produce upwards momentum since touching a low on Friday.

Forex forecast 04/24/2024: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:39 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:13 Totay's key events: Core Durable Goods Orders, Crude Oil Inventories, German Ifo Business Climate Index, German Buba President Nagel Speaks, Eurogroup Meetings 02:18 EUR/USD 04:24 USD/CAD 06:04 OIL 08:18 BTC/USDUseful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/NOK Forecast: US Dollar Pulls Back Against Norwegian Krone - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:24 am

The US dollar has pulled back a bit against the Norwegian krone during the early hours on Tuesdayץ

GBP/USD Forecast: Attempts to Turn the Trend - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:23 am

The British pound has rallied a bit during the Tuesday session as we are testing the crucial 1.24 level.

Copper Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:22 am

Copper has been supported amid a global growth impulse in Q1 due to rate cuts expectations, more PBoC easing and stronger economic data. Yesterday, we got the first bad news as the US PMIs missed expectations by a big margin and the commentary was generally downbeat. Moreover, the recent repricing in interest rates with higher Treasury yields and the US Dollar, might have dampened the optimistic views and be the first signs of another slowdown. The next set of data in May will give us some better clarity. Copper Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Copper eventually broke through the key 4.35 level and extended the rally into a new cycle high at 4.57. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance turned support at the 4.35 level where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, if the price were to break lower, they will find another good support around the trendline where there’s also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. Copper Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price bounced on a minor trendline recently and it’s now finding some resistance around the red 21 moving average. If the price were to break below the trendline, the sellers will pile in to target a drop into the 4.35 level, and upon a further break lower, the major trendline around the 4.20 level. Copper Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above another minor downward trendline that was defining the pullback into the trendline around the 4.41 level. The buyers piled in on a breakout to position for a rally into a new cycle high. If we were to get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the upward minor trendline where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Forecast: Bounces after Plunge Lower - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:16 am

The silver market fell initially during the trading session on Tuesday but has seen enough buying to turn things around and let the market.

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Recovers Against Swiss Franc - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:10 am

The British pound has rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Tuesday to break above the 1.13 CHF level.

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 24

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:03 am

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0674 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the signal to buy the euro in continuation of the upward movement within the intraday trend. As a result, the euro rose by 30 pips. Strong Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMI data made it possible for the euro to stay afloat in the morning. However, weak US data undermined the bears' defensive strategy, leading to a stronger rise in EUR/USD. Today, weak German data may affect traders' sentiment, as reports have not been particularly encouraging lately. Reports on the IFO Business Climate Index, IFO Current Assessment Index, and IFO Economic Expectations Index may provide impetus. Poor reports could push the euro down towards the daily low, where we would like to see buyers, assuming they are still present after yesterday. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area around 1.0711 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0753. At the level of 1.0753, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after good Eurozone data, in continuation of yesterday's trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0681 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0711 and 1.0753.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0681 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0642, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high and after weak data from Germany. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0711 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0681 and 1.0642.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 24

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:03 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2386 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point to buy the pound in hopes that the pair would correct higher. As a result, the pair rose by more than 70 pips, but I only took part in this movement because I did not expect such a strong rally. Profit taking occurred around the target level of 1.2415. Reasonable figures for the Manufacturing and Services PMI data made it possible for the pound to partially recover from the decline observed earlier in the week, while weak US data led to larger purchases in the afternoon. Today, the upward trend may persist, as the report on the balance of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) is unlikely to leave a significant impact on the market, even if the data disappoints. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the area around 1.2460 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2510 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2510, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can only count on the pound's growth today after good UK data, in continuation of the upward correction. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2423 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2460 and 1.2510.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2423 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2377, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high and if the UK releases weak data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2460 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2423 and 1.2377.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 24

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:03 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 154.86 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was in overbought territory, clearly limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not buy, and I did not wait for the second test to execute the second scenario for selling. Another price test at 154.71 in the afternoon occurred when the MACD was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the signal to sell the dollar. However, the pair did not sharply fall despite disappointing US data. Today, the market ignored the data on the services price index in Japan, which, in the absence of the Bank of Japan's interference, made it possible for the dollar to renew yearly highs, maintaining its upward trend in the medium-term. However, be cautious with buying at current levels. It's better to wait for pullbacks and rely on scenario No. 2. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 154.98 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 155.29 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 155.29, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 154.82 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 154.98 and 155.29.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 154.82 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 154.55, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 154.98 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.82 and 154.55.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Attempt a Recovery - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:01 am

The S&P 500 initially dipped a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of strength again.

Ethereum Forecast: Continues to Recover from Pullback - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:00 am

Ethereum rallied slightly during the early trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of life again.

EUR/JPY Forex Signal: Euro Breaks Barrier Against the Japanese Yen - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:51 am

The euro rallied significantly during the trading session on Tuesday, to break above the ¥165 level.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 24

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:37 am

EUR/USDHigher TimeframesYesterday, the bulls tried to break out of the consolidation area. Today, it is important to consolidate what was achieved and continue the upward movement. The nearest bullish targets are 1.0732 and 1.0756 (daily and weekly Fibonacci Kijun). Furthermore, take note that yesterday the bulls managed to close above the daily short-term trend. Therefore, the trend has transitioned into a support, currently located at 1.0666. In addition, the monthly Fibonacci Kijun (1.0611) continues to play as a significant support in this section of the chart.H4 – H1Bulls maintain the advantage on the lower timeframes, so the upward movement continues. Intraday bullish references are represented by classic Pivot resistance levels, and today they can be found at 1.0729, 1.0757, and 1.0802. In case the bears are active, and positions are lost, the market will focus on key levels on lower timeframes, which are found at 1.0684 (central Pivot level of the day) and 1.0663 (weekly long-term trend). A breakthrough and consolidation below will change the current balance of power in favor of strengthening the bearish bias. Intraday bearish targets are found at 1.0656, 1.0611, and 1.0583 (classic Pivot levels).***GBP/USDHigher TimeframesYesterday, the bulls had the initiative to continue the upward movement. They are currently working above the daily short-term trend (1.2428), testing the resilience area of resistances (1.2464 – 1.2488) in the higher timeframe. In the event of a rebound, key levels like 1.2395 (final level of the weekly Ichimoku cross), 1.2298 (low), and 1.2265 (monthly Fib Kijun) may be important.H4 – H1Yesterday, the bulls were able to settle above key levels. As a result, they have the main advantage. If the upward movement continues, the focus can be directed towards the resistance of classic Pivot levels at 1.2491, 1.2537, and 1.2618. Changing the situation would involve a breakthrough and reversal of the weekly long-term trend (1.2413). Support will be provided by classic Pivot levels, which are currently located at 1.2364, 1.2283, and 1.2237.***The technical analysis of the situation uses:Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levelsLower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Break and Retest Pattern Points to a Reversal - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:32 am

The EUR/USD pair bounced back after the mixed European and US flash manufacturing and services activity data.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:10 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market expects the first rate cut in September. EURThe ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and opened the door for a rate cut in June.The recent Eurozone CPI missed expectations.The labour market remains historically tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.The latest Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping further in contraction.The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD eventually pulled back to retest the 1.07 resistance zone where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the trendline around the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the recent price action might have formed a bearish flag, although the price will need to break below the bottom trendline to confirm it. This should strengthen the resistance zone as we have also the top trendline adding extra confluence. The sellers will look for a drop into the bottom trendline targeting a break below it, while the buyers will want to see a breakout to the upside to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the 1.08 handle. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action and we can notice that we have another important zone around the 1.0690 level where the price found both a resistance on the way up and a support on the way down. Moreover, there’s also the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. This is where the buyers might want to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a breakout and a rally into the 1.08 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the bottom trendline around the 1.0640 level. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Has Upside Amid a Risk-On Sentiment - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:10 am

Bitcoin price remained in a tight range on Wednesday morning even as the risk-on sentiment continued.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:07 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.45; (P) 192.15; (R1) 193.47; More.. GBP/JPY is still bounded in range below 193.51 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 189.97 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 will indicate that […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

BTC/USD Forecast: Long Term Bulls - 24 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:04 am

Bitcoin has gone back and forth during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see the market look somewhat consolidation based.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:03 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.98; (P) 165.36; (R1) 166.09; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend should target 169.96 key resistance next. On the downside, break of 164.39 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. But outlook will continue to stay bullish as long as 162.26 […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:58 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8578; (P) 0.8611; (R1) 0.8630; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral first with current retreat. On the upside, decisive break of medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8649) will solidify the bullish case of trend reversal, and target 0.8764 resistance next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:55 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6468; (P) 1.6516; (R1) 1.6545; More… Outlook is mixed up by deeper than expected fall from 1.6679. On the downside, firm break of 1.6368 support will revive that case that rebound from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.7062. Deeper […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9722; (P) 0.9741; (R1) 0.9780; More… The strong break of 55 4H EMA suggest that EUR/CHF’s pull back from 0.9847 has completed at 0.9563 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 0.9847 high. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9252. On the downside, below 0.9708 minor support […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Forecast After the Australia Inflation Data - 24 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:51 pm

The AUD/USD pair rose slightly on Wednesday morning after the closely watched Australian consumer inflation report.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Pound Sterling’s Comeback Set to be Brief - 24 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:44 pm

The GBP/USD exchange rate bounced back sharply after the strong UK flash composite PMI and a hawkish statement by Huw Pill, a senior Bank of England (BoE) official.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:07 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0656; (P) 1.0684; (R1) 1.0729; More… Outlook in EUR/USD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. Strong resistance should be seen from 1.0723 to complete the corrective rise from 1.0601. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:04 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays neutral at this point. While recovery from 1.2298 might extend higher, upside should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 1.2298 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2036 support next. In the bigger picture, price actions […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

IFO business climate. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April German business climate index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO), based on a survey of managers of 7.0K enterprises in the manufacturing industry, construction sector, wholesale and retail trade, will be published. The value may increase from 87.8 points to 88.9 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Business expectations index. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April business expectations index in Germany will be published, which measures business sentiment and business conditions in the country through a survey of representatives of 7.0K companies. A decrease is predicted from 87.5 points to 84.7 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 22:59 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.63; (P) 154.76; (R1) 154.95; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays mildly on the upside for further rally. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support will turn bias to […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9093; (P) 0.9113; (R1) 0.9138; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation form 0.9151 is extending. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USDCHF Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 22:57 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market expects the first rate cut in September. CHFThe SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate to 1.50% vs. 1.75% prior.The latest Switzerland CPI missed expectations by a big margin.The Unemployment Rate remains steady at cycle lows.The Manufacturing PMI improved further while the Services PMI saw a big drop. Both the measures are in contraction.The market expects the SNB to cut rates again in June.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF has been consolidating around the key resistance at 0.9112. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4-hour TimeframeOn the 4-hour chart, we can see more clearly the rangebound price action that has been going on for almost a month. The reason for this is that the market has already priced in the cuts for the SNB and the less dovish path for US interest rates. That means that we need a catalyst to change future expectations in some way. For now, the market will likely keep on bouncing between the 0.9075 support and the 0.9150 resistance until we get a breakout.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1-hour TimeframeOn the 1-hour chart, we can see more closely the range with just one spike below it caused by the Israeli retaliation against Iran last Friday, which was faded as the market sniffed the de-escalation. So, we are back in trading inside the range with the market participants continuing to sell around the resistance and buy around the support. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 22:54 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3640; (P) 1.3679; (R1) 1.3701; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment with focus on 1.3660 support. Strong rebound from current level will retain near term bullishness. Break of 1.3748 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.3660 […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 23, 2024 | 22:39 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6455; (P) 0.6473; (R1) 0.6504; More… AUD/USD’s strong break of 0.6480 support turned resistance confirms short term bottoming at 0.6361, and intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6440 […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

Key events on April 24: fundamental analysis for beginners

Apr 23, 2024 | 22:00 pm

Analysis of macroeconomic reports: Relatively few macroeconomic events scheduled for Wednesday. One might pay attention to the IFO Business Climate Index in Germany. But the main focus will be on the US report on durable goods orders. The US dollar lost quite a bit of ground yesterday, so it is possible that bears will try to regain control today. The US report could help them in this regard. However, if the report turns out to be weaker than expected, it could mount pressure on the US currency.Analysis of fundamental events: From Wednesday's fundamental events, we can highlight five speeches by members of the European Central Bank's monetary committee. In our opinion, the ECB officials will likely limit themselves to information that has long been known to the market. Currently, the market is confident that the ECB will start to lower rates in June. It is unlikely that Nagel, Tuominen, Cipollone, McCaul, and Schnabel will voice theses that do not align with the market's consensus. Therefore, we should not expect significant reactions to these speeches.General conclusion:Today, novice traders should pay attention to the US report on durable goods orders, as this could help the dollar recover. We believe that the dollar will not fall further until the US report is released. Volatility for both currency pairs may be low during the European session.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 24. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 23, 2024 | 21:41 pm

Analyzing Tuesday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD continued to correct higher on Tuesday. The euro strengthened throughout the day, however, circumstances played a significant role. We did not expect the European PMI data to turn out positive while the US reports would falter. In Germany and the European Union, they were not conclusive, as manufacturing sectors remained below the 50.0 level, and in the European Union, business activity in this sector even declined. However, there was a solid increase in the services sectors. In America, both S&P indices were disappointing, which exerted pressure on the US dollar.However, from a technical perspective, nothing has changed. The pair is gradually rising, as it hovers around the upper channel line, so today, it may lean towards a downward movement.EUR/USD on 5M chart Not the best trading signals on the 5-minute timeframe. This was due to the economic reports, as the pair rose after their release. Initially, the pair bounced from the level of 1.0678, then it bounced again, and surpassed this level. However, the pair only managed to show an upward movement when the reports weighed on the dollar. Therefore, the signals were somewhat "awkward," and novice traders could not gain profit.Trading tips on Wednesday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists, but the EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher. We believe that the euro should fall further, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. However, at the moment, the market is likely taking a break before it starts a new downward movement.Today, the pair may fall as it is currently near the upper boundary of the channel. The only thing that could hinder it is the US report on durable goods orders, which will be released at the beginning of the US session. If this report also turns out to be weak, the euro may rise further, but its medium-term prospects will not change.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. On Wednesday, the IFO Business Climate Index will be published in Germany, and the US will release a report on orders for durable goods. The US report could influence the pair's movement.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 24. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 23, 2024 | 21:41 pm

Analyzing Tuesday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair also showed quite a strong upward movement on Tuesday, which was solely triggered by the macro data. Take note that the British pound doesn't have many reasons to rise, and the economic reports mostly work in favor of the dollar. However, yesterday the situation was the opposite. The US released disappointing PMI data, while British data were, so to speak, at a decent level. Therefore, the pound initially rose at the beginning of the European trading session, and then the dollar fell at the beginning of the US session. In total, GBP/USD increased by almost 100 pips.However, we don't expect the pair to sustain the sharp upward movement. Unless, other US reports turn out to be just like yesterday's. But there are other, more global factors that support the US currency in the long term.GBP/USD on 5M chart Three trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe. Initially, the pair rebounded from the 1.2172-1.2387 range after it rose due to the UK PMIs. The decline was short-lived, and at the beginning of the US session, thanks to weak US data, the pair surpassed the 1.2172-1.2387 range. Subsequently, the price reached the nearest target at the level of 1.2457. Thus, novice traders could have opened two trades, the first of which closed at breakeven, and the second resulted in a profit of about 45 pips.Trading tips on Wednesday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. After surpassing the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. Today, novice traders can look for new sell signals around the level of 1.2457. The market is not in a rush to sell the pair, but the pound is gradually depreciating over time, which is a good sign. Today, the US report on durable goods orders could exert pressure on the dollar. But if the report shows good values, then the dollar should recover yesterday's losses.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. No significant events scheduled in the UK. Today, traders will focus on the US report on durable goods orders.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 24-26, 2024: buy above $2,318 (oversold - 5/8 Murray)

Apr 23, 2024 | 21:33 pm

Gold is trading around 2,318, within a downtrend channel forming since April 10th and within another secondary downtrend channel forming since April 17th. The XAU trend could remain bearish and the instrument could reach the area of the 200 EMA at 2,265 and could even reach 4/8 Murray at 2,250.If gold falls below 2,318 in the next few days, we could expect a resumption of the downtrend and the price could reach the bottom of the downtrend channel around 2287. If this level is broken, the yellow metal could quickly reach the dynamic support of 2,265.The outlook could be positive for gold if it returns and consolidates above 5/8 Murray. However, if a sharp break occurs in the downtrend channel, we could look for opportunities to buy gold above the 21 SMA located at 2,348 with targets at the top of the downtrend channel around the psychological level of 2,400.In the H4 chart, we can see that gold has left a GAP at about 2,392. If a recovery of the metal occurs in the next few days and if its price consolidates above 2,375, we could expect it to reach and cover this GAP. The price could even return to levels of 2,437.Since April 23, the eagle indicator has been showing extremely oversold signals. It means that an imminent technical rebound could occur in the coming days and will be seen as an opportunity to buy.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GBP/USD for April 24-26, 2024: buy above 1.2396 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

Apr 23, 2024 | 21:09 pm

The British pound is trading around 1.2452, bouncing after having reached the low of 1.2285 and is now approaching the psychological level of 1.25.In case GBP/USD consolidates above 2/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA, the outlook will remain positive and we could expect the price to reach the 200 EMA located at 1.2566. It could even reach the top of the downtrend channel around 1.2580.A technical correction could allow the bulls to resume buying. If the GBP/USD pair trades around 1.2400 or above this level, we could look for opportunities to buy with targets at 1.2566 and 7/8 Murray of 1.2573.The eagle indicator has been giving a positive signal since April 18. Therefore, we believe that any pullback will be seen as a signal to buy.In case the GBP/USD pair falls below 5/8 Murray, our bullish outlook would be invalidated and the GBP could resume the decline and reach 4/8 Murray located at 1.2207.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Asset, Wednesday April 24, 2024.

Apr 23, 2024 | 20:47 pm

On the 4 hour chart of Silver commodity asset, there is a hidden deviation between Silver price movement with Stochastic Oscillator indicator where this is marked that in the near future, Silver has the potential to go down to its weakness where the level 26,630 will be the main target that will try to aim in the near future, and if the momentum as well as the volatility is quite supporting, then it is not impossible that the next level of 26,236 will be the next target to be aimed, but all these downward scenario will become invalid if on the way to those target levels suddenly there is a strengthening significant correction especially if Silver managed to break above the level 27,325.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of AUD/JPY Cross Currency Pairs, Wednesday April 24, 2024.

Apr 23, 2024 | 20:47 pm

With the appearance of deviation between price movement with Stochastic Oscillator indicator on the 4 hour chart of AUD/JPY cross currency pairs also supported by MA 20 which intersects of the Golden Cross above MA 200 gives the clue that currently buyers still dominant at AUD/JPY although there is a potential to corrected to weakness marked by the Stochastic Oscillator condition in the important overbought level area. What is important that as long as the weakness correction does not break below the level 99,65 then based on the Ichimoku Price Projection Y Wave gives the projection and the probability to AUD/JPY that in the near future will appreciated up to the level 101,36.(Dsiclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 24, 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 19:45 pm

AUD/USDUnder the influence of related markets, the Australian dollar has overcome the resistance of the target level at 0.6480. Most likely, today's session will close with a white candle, which will confirm the price's consolidation above the level it reaches. Next, we expect it to rise towards the daily MACD line at the level of 0.6553.Only one factor may hinder the price from easily reaching the intended target - a delay in the signal line of the Marlin oscillator at the border of the bullish territory. If we see a reversal of the oscillator, it may not reach the MACD line. But for now, the situation is such that we may see a false breakout above the MACD line, as was the case in the first week of April or on March 21st (spike), and a false breakout of Marlin into positive territory.On the 4-hour chart, the price has consolidated above the target level of 0.6480, and the Marlin oscillator continues to gradually rise in the uptrend territory. We expect the AUD/USD pair to rise in the short-term.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 24, 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 19:45 pm

GBP/USD Yesterday, the British currency surged by 98 pips, overcoming two target resistances at once. However, the pound rose on average trading volumes, which means that you may still consider strategic selling. It is possible to expect a correction to the Fibonacci level of 38.2%, which is close to the lows of February 6th and 14th.At this price level, the Marlin oscillator may reach the boundary of the growth territory, and there's a good chance of a reversal of the downtrend. The peak of the correction would be 1.2596, coinciding with the Fibonacci level of 50.0% and the embedded line of the global descending channel.On the 4-hour chart, the price has settled above the MACD indicator line, and the Marlin oscillator has become stable and continues to rise in the positive territory. We expect the price to reach the intermediate level of 1.2525.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 24, 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 19:45 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, the euro rose by 47 pips while risk assets were up across the market: stocks, commodities, and bonds. The single currency surpassed the signal level of 1.0696, and the Marlin oscillator broke through the linear resistance, as it continued to rise towards the boundary of the bullish territory.The euro likely aims to consolidate above 1.0724 in order to reach the target level of 1.0796. Here, the price may also encounter the MACD indicator line and reverse downwards. If the price manages to settle above the level of 1.0796 and the MACD line, then the euro will rise to 1.0905. This is an alternative scenario.On the 4-hour chart, the price has already settled above the intermediate level of 1.0696. The Marlin oscillator continues to move sideways within a narrow range, and this is the only sign that suggests that the price may not consolidate above 1.0724, ending the corrective rise. However, overall, the upward trend is strong, and most likely, the price will test the intermediate level of 1.0757.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for GBP/USD on April 24. The pound has perked up

Apr 23, 2024 | 18:06 pm

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M GBP/USD showed quite a strong rise on Tuesday. The macroeconomic background supported the pound. Although, we can't say that it completely supported the British currency, but nonetheless, three out of four reports worked in its favor. The UK Services PMI grew stronger than expected, while both US PMIs performed poorly. Therefore, it was absolutely logical for the pair to rise on Tuesday. As a result, GBP/USD started a new phase of upward movement, which may be a simple correction against the new downtrend that started after the price left the sideways channel of 1.25-1.28. We don't believe that the pair will rise for long, as the PMI data could not significantly change the market sentiment from bearish to bullish. However, corrections are still valid. The price settled above the critical line, so it may rise up to the Senkou Span B line. Overall, yesterday's macro data can be considered an exception to the rule, as usually US reports are stronger than British ones.There were quite a few trading signals yesterday. The first sell signal around the level of 1.2349 turned out to be a false signal, and the price changed direction many times during the day. The second signal was a buy signal around the same level of 1.2349, and the price rose to the critical line. Traders could open short positions using bounces from the Kijun-sen line, and the movement ended around 1.2349. A bounce from this level led to new longs, which traders should have kept until the pair reached the area of 1.2429-1.2445. Three out of four trades were profitable. The total profit was about 100 pips.COT report: COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has frequently changed. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly intersect and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 8,200 buy contracts and opened 11,400 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 19,600 contracts in a week. The fundamental background still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases of the pound sterling, and the currency finally has a real chance to resume the global downward trend. The trend line on the 24-hour TF clearly shows this.The non-commercial group currently has a total of 71,800 buy contracts and 63,200 sell contracts. The bulls no longer have a significant advantage. Therefore, the pound has a huge potential to fall. We can only hope that inflation in the UK does not accelerate, or that the Bank of England will not intervene.Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, GBP/USD has left the sideways channel of 1.25-1.28. Now, the pound should continue forming a downtrend, and the pair has the potential to fall by at least 400-500 pips. The fundamental and macroeconomic background continues to support the dollar, as the US economy is much stronger than the UK, and the Federal Reserve keeps pushing back its first rate cut. However, a correction has started, which may last for some time.As of April 24, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2556) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2390) lines can also serve as sources of signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.On Wednesday, no significant events are scheduled in the UK, while the US will release an important report on durable goods orders. This report poses a threat to the dollar. After yesterday's performance, the British pound may continue to rise if the US data turns out worse than forecasted. However, overall, we do not believe that several not-so-significant reports will turn the market upside down. The pound should continue to depreciate against the dollar.Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for EUR/USD on April 24. Euro rose to the upper boundary of the channel

Apr 23, 2024 | 18:04 pm

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M EUR/USD continued to move inside an almost horizontal, but formally known as an ascending channel. Since the last rebound occurred from the lower boundary of the channel, the price rose to the upper boundary over the course of several days. The movement turned out to be absolutely predictable, although yesterday it was not only technical in nature.In the morning, Services and Manufacturing PMI data for Germany and the euro area were released. The Services PMI data turned out to be significantly stronger than forecasts, while the Manufacturing PMIs were either worse than forecasts or simply weak. The market considered the services sector more important, so the euro started to rise in the morning. However, it immediately stopped, and if it were not for the US PMIs (which usually have little impact), the euro may not have risen as much. However, this time the market decided to pay attention to the US S&P indices, so the dollar fell for the second time in the day as the US PMI data turned out to be weak. Both indices came out weaker than forecasted.Overall, on the hourly time frame, the pair continues to gradually correct higher. We do not believe that the euro has started a new phase of growth in the medium-term. We expect the correction to end and the downtrend to resume.As for trading signals, two were formed on the 5-minute time frame. First, the pair settled above the range of 1.0646-1.0669, and then rebounded from the same range. In both cases, the breakthrough or rebound occurred precisely when the reports were published. It was quite difficult to react to these signals. If these reports had not been released, we would hardly have seen the euro rise. That's why we believe that the downward trend persists in the medium term.COT report: The latest COT report is dated April 16. The net position of non-commercial traders has been bullish for quite some time. Basically, the number of long positions in the market is higher than the number of short positions. However, at the same time, the net position of non-commercial traders (red line) has been decreasing in recent months, while that of commercial traders (blue line) has been increasing. This shows that market sentiment is turning bearish, as speculators increasingly sell the euro. Furthermore, we don't see any fundamental factors that can support the euro's strength, while technical analysis also suggests a downtrend. Three descending trend lines on the weekly chart indicate that there's a good chance of sustaining the decline.At present, the red and blue lines are moving towards each other (indicating a trend reversal after a rise). Therefore, we believe that the euro will fall further. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group increased by 3,500, while the number of short positions increased by 21,500. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 21,500. Overall, both the euro and the net position continue to decline. The number of buy contracts is higher than the number of sell contracts among non-commercial traders by only 12,000 (previously 32,700).Analysis of EUR/USD 1H On the 1-hour chart, the downtrend persists but EUR/USD has remained in a flat phase for a week now. Since expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2024 have significantly decreased, the US dollar can and should continue to rise for a couple more months at least. Especially in light of the upcoming European Central Bank rate cut in June. Practically all the factors suggest downward movement for the pair. We consider the recent upward movement as part of a standard correction.On April 24, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0530, 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0836, 1.0886, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0745) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0661) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 15 pips. This will protect you against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.On Wednesday, the IFO Business Climate Index will be published in Germany, and the US will release a report on orders for durable goods. The US report is quite important, and this week, the market has shown that it is ready to react to the economic reports... Expect active movements.Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index in New Zealand will be published – the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It affects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy decisions. The figure may rise from 0.6% to 0.8% QoQ and fall from 4.1% to 3.4% YoY. Read more

The euro miscalculated its strength

Apr 23, 2024 | 16:01 pm

The bulls attacked the EUR/USD pair after the eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data rose to nearly year-long highs. However, the pair failed to move significantly higher. The euro is too vulnerable, while its main opponent, the US dollar, is too strong.The HCOB's preliminary composite eurozone PMI bounced to 51.4, which indicates that the European GDP expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter. This is higher than the Bloomberg forecast of +0.1%. Could it be that the dark period for the currency bloc is finally over?The dynamics of business activity in the eurozoneGermany made a significant contribution to the PMI dynamics. Its business activity exceeded the key 50 mark for the first time since June, challenging Bloomberg experts who expected another unimpressive result. It's still too early to say that the German economy has regained its status as the main driver of eurozone economic growth, but positive shifts are always welcome for EUR/USD, especially considering that France continues to play the role of a workhorse.A glimmer of light in the eurozone doesn't compare to the US. The US GDP is on track to expand by 2.5% in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg forecasts. It's no wonder that the US securities market is so appealing to foreign investors, which is one of the reasons why the dollar strengthened.What drives the EUR/USD bears, greed or fear? The dollar's rise amidst the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East suggested that it was benefiting from high demand for safe-haven assets. However, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are also considered reliable assets in the currency market, yet they are somehow among the outsiders. At the same time, income currencies like the Mexican peso or the Canadian dollar incur lesser losses.It's clear that the dollar's advantage comes from the high yield of bonds denominated in it and its appeal in general. We can understand this by looking at the rates in the issuing countries of the G10 currencies.Interest rates in G10 currency issuer countriesWhen the economy is strong and global risk appetite is high, the US dollar becomes a profitable carry-trade asset. In contrast, the yen and franc's statuses as funding currencies leave them at the bottom of the race. The eurozone economy may be improving, but if the US GDP does not cool down, the bulls cannot expect success. The main currency pair is stuck in consolidation within the range of 1.061-1.071, awaiting the release of US GDP data. Only this report can challenge the theory of American exceptionalism.Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls are trying to return to the fair value range of 1.066-1.94. If bulls fail to keep the pair's quotes above the level of 1.066, this would provide grounds for selling.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade balance. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish March data on the trade balance – an indicator that records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The negative trend is likely to continue from the current –218.0M New Zealand dollars to –505.0M New Zealand dollars MoM, putting pressure on the national currency. Read more

Video market update for April 23, 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 12:31 pm

Potential for the breakout on the EUR/USD...The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCAD stretches to a key support target defined by a cluster of technical levels

Apr 23, 2024 | 12:03 pm

The USDCAD has followed the USD lower and in the process is now stretching to a key cluster of support defined by:A swing area between 1.3654 and 1.3668204 moving average on the four hour chart at 1.366550% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36612That cluster between 1.36541 and 1.3668 is key for the short term barometer. Staying above is more bullish, moving below would increase the bearish bias. That fight will be resolved soon. Do you like USDCAD buying? This is the dip.Do you like USDCAD selling? Break below 1.3654 to increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

API weekly crude oil stock. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The last time, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.090M barrels of crude oil, and the trend continuation may put pressure on oil prices. Read more

USDJPY increases the 100 hour MA as a key downside support target

Apr 23, 2024 | 11:24 am

The USDJPY has two key level in play. ON the topside the 155.00 level is being touted at a level that the BOJ does not want to see the USDJPY move above. It may just be the "market" speaking, but there is chatter that the central bank also does not want the pair moving above that level. The central bank will meet at the end of the week. The other level in play is the 100 hour MA. That level has been tested on a number of bars in the US session and support buyers have entered near that level on dips, increasing the levels importance. That level comes in at 154.57 currently.The resistance there 155.00. Support near 154.57. The traders have their bookends to lean against, or buy or sell on a break above or below. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD has a cap near the 38.2% retracement, but buyers are pushing.

Apr 23, 2024 | 09:50 am

The EURUSD of higher after the weaker US data today and in the process tested the 30.2% retracement of the April trading range. That level comes in at 1.0709. The high price reached 1.07107 just above the retracement level before rotating modestly to the downside.What next?For buyers, the 38.2% retracement is a key level to get to and through. If it can, the 100 bar moving average on a four hour chart and a swing area up to 1.0722 to 1.0732 is the next target that it broke it would increase the bullish bias.For sellers, the best case area would be to have the cap against the 38.2% retracement to continue to hold at 1.0709. If the price can then get and stay below 1.0694 (the February low) and then break below 1.0655 – 1.0675 swing area, the sellers would have successfully thwarted the buyers attempt to take back control.. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US broader indices up over 1%. S&P up 1.01%. NASDAQ index up 1.43%

Apr 23, 2024 | 08:57 am

There are a slew of earnings scheduled to be released this week, including Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Intel. Below is a list of the major earnings on the schedule:Key earnings this week:Tuesday: After the close :Tesla, Visa, Texas InstrumentsWednesday: Boeing, AT&T, General Dynamics, Boston Scientific. After the close: Meta Platforms, IBM, Ford, Chipotle, ServiceNow, Lamb ResearchThursday: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Southwest, Bristol-Myers Squibb. After close Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Western Digital, T-Mobile, Gilead.Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive.Today, stocks are up for the second consecutive day helped by lower yields on a softer-less inflationary economy. S&P global manufacturing and service data came in weaker than expectations. The Richmond Fed manufacturing data was also on the weak/contractionary side. Yields are lower with the 5-year yield down around -3.7 basis points and the 10-year yield down -3.3 basis points.The combination has stocks moving higher for the second consecutive day. The S&P index is up 1.01%. The NASDAQ is up 1.44%.Technically, looking at the daily chart of the S&P index above, it fell below the 50% midpoint of the 2024 trading range on Friday at 4973.48. The price on Friday closed below that level at 4953.56 (Barash), but fell short of the 100-day MA (blue line on the chart above) currently at 4944.56.Yesterday the price rebounded, taking some of the pressure off of the downside in the process. The price bottomed for the day at 4969.40 before rebounding and closing above the 50% retracement level at 5010.59. Today the momentum has continued with the price moving back above the broken 38.2% retracement at 5042.24. That level is now a close risk for buyers looking for more upside. On the top side, the 50-day moving average comes in at 5119.28 and is the next upside target. The price is still a good distance away from that level with a high price today at only 5068.82.Looking at the NASDAQ and on the daily chart below, its price low did fall below its 100 day moving average last week. That was the first time since November 10 (see blue line at 15515.03). The price also fell below the 61.8% tracing of the 2024 trading range at 15264.98. Yesterday, the price bottomed right near that retracement level before moving higher. Today the price has moved above its 50% midpoint of the 2024 trading range at 15508.22, and also the 100-day moving average of 15515.01.Moving back above those two key technical levels has shifted the short-term bias to the upside. Traders looking for more upside would now not want to see the price move back below each of those technical levels (down to 15508.22). The next upside time comes at the broken 38.2 at 15751.45. Above that is the 50-day moving average at 16055.26.Need this say, the earnings this week will be key for both these broader indices. Buyers are trying to take that control at least in the short term, but they will need to hold technicals support to keep the upside probing in play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD extends to the upside on the back of a lower dollar today

Apr 23, 2024 | 08:37 am

The NZDUSD has moved higher today on the back of weaker US data (lower USD), low yields, and risk-on sentiment from rising stocks. Technically, the price has been able to move above a swing area between 0.5933 and 0.59415 and the 38.2% retracement of the April 2024 trading range is 0.59396. Those levels are now close support. If the buyers are to take and keep control, they need to stay above those levels. On the top side, the 50% of the April trading range comes in at 0.5966. The 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart is just below that level at 0.5962. Those are the next key targets on further upside momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 23-25, 2024: buy above 1.0681 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

Apr 23, 2024 | 08:20 am

EUR/USD is trading around 1.0698, above 3/8 Murray, and within the uptrend channel forming since April 16. We can see on the chart that the price is located within the 21 SMA and the uptrend channel, bouncing every time it approaches 2/8 Murray.In case there is a technical correction towards the 3/8 level Murray (1.0681) in the next few hours, it could be seen as an opportunity to buy with the target at the 200 EMA located at 1.0762.EUR/USD is above good support around 1.0657 and 1.0650. If this area is tested in the next few days, it will be seen as a good point to buy during a technical rebound. From this level, we could expect EUR/USD to reach 1.0803.While the euro is trading above 2/8 Murray (1.0620), the outlook will remain bullish in the short term and any technical correction will be seen as a signal to buy.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD reacts to the weaker US data. Pair moves higher as yields move lower/stocks higher.

Apr 23, 2024 | 08:01 am

The AUDUSD buyer took the price higher after the weaker ISM flash data and Richmond Fed manufacturing data. The prehire has now taken the price above the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the April high to the April low. The level comes in at 0.6469 and is now close support. Staying above is more bullish. The price also moved away from a swing area between 0.6442 and 0.6455 . For buyers looking for more upside, that area is a more conservative risk.On the top side there is some tough resistance coming against the 100 bar moving average on the four hour chart and the 50% retracement of the April trading range. Both those levels come in at 0.65028. I would expect that there would be some selling against that level with stops on a break above.Stops moving to the upside are also helping the pair on risk-on flows. The NASDAQ and is now up 1.5% while the S&P index is up 1.15%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:43 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.55; (P) 164.82; (R1) 165.25; More… EUR/JPY’s breach of 165.33 resistance argues that larger up trend is resuming. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Further rally would be seen to 169.96 key resistance next. Nevertheless, break of 164.39 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. In the bigger picture, […] The post EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:40 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0628; (P) 1.0650; (R1) 1.0675; More… Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. In the bigger picture, […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

The USDCHF is not doing much in trading today, but the buyers are trying to take control.

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:39 am

The USDCHF price action is not doing much today. The price has been moving up and down and in the process, the price has been trading above and below the 100 and 200 hour MAs . However, in more recent trading in the US session, the 100-hour MA at 0.9112 has held support. Can the buyers keep control against the MA now?Watch the 0.9112 level for clues. Stay above is more bullish. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9103; (P) 0.9113; (R1) 0.9131; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in consolidation from 0.9151 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:33 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.57; (P) 154.71; (R1) 154.98; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the upside as up trend is extending. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:25 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2303; (P) 1.2347; (R1) 1.2395; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery, and some consolidations would be seen first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 1.2298 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2036 support next. In the […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX trading day for April 23 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 23, 2024 | 06:07 am

In the kickstart video, I take a look at the three major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, and outline the technical levels in play.The EURUSD moved higher in training today but did find resistant sellers against the swing below going back to February 2024. That level was the old below for the year until a few weeks ago when broke. Staying below that level at 1.0694, keeps the sellers more in control.The USDJPY inched to a new 30+ year high reaching a 154.855. The 155.00 is considered a level that the Bank of Japan might look to intervene to slow the JPYs decline. Having said that, the 100-hour moving average below at 154.57 is not been tested. The current price trades at 154.82. It would take a move below the 100-hour moving average to increase bearish bias.Speaking of the 100-hour moving average, that moving average was tested in early US trading in the GBPUSD. That law comes at 1.2406. Going forward today, it would take a move above that level to give the buyers more confidence. Absent that, and the sellers are still in more control This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:14 am

As the North American session begins, the GBP is the strongest of the major currencies. The NZD is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower to start the US trading day.The price of USDJPY reached to another high going back to 1990 with the price moving closer to 155.00 at 154.855. The current price is just below that level at 154.78.Flash PMI data was released in Europe today. Most country data BEAT expectations.France:Manufacturing PMI: Actual 44.9, Forecast 46.9, Previous 46.2 (BEAT)Services PMI: Actual 50.5, Forecast 48.9, Previous 48.3 (BEAT)Germany:Manufacturing PMI: Actual 42.2, Forecast 42.8, Previous 41.9 (BEAT)Services PMI: Actual 53.3, Forecast 50.6, Previous 50.1 (BEAT)Eurozone:Manufacturing PMI: Actual 45.6, Forecast 46.5, Previous 46.1 (BEAT)Services PMI: Actual 52.9, Forecast 51.8, Previous 51.5 (BEAT)United Kingdom:Manufacturing PMI: Actual 48.7, Forecast 50.3, Previous 50.3 (MISSED)Services PMI: Actual 54.9, Forecast 53.0, Previous 53.1 (BEAT) The US last estimates will be released at 9:45 AM ET with expectations of 52.0 versus 51.9 last month for the manufacturing, and 52.0 versus 51.7 last month for the services. New home sales will also be released today (at 10 AM ET). Their dictations are 668K vs 662K last month. Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected at -7 versus -11 last month (it too will be released at 10 AM ET). The flow of earnings releases got stronger today ahead of Tesla, Visa, and Texas Instruments after the close. The following were released so far today:Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX)Adjusted EPS: $0.32 (BEAT) expected: $0.27Revenue: $6.30 billion (BEAT) expected: $5.66 billionLockheed Martin Corp (LMT)Adjusted EPS: $6.33 (BEAT) expected: $5.81Revenue: $17.20 billion (BEAT) expected: $15.99 billionFree Cash Flow: $1.26 billion (BEAT) expected: $1.16 billionSherwin-Williams Co (SHW)Adjusted EPS: $2.17 (MISSED) expected: $2.21Revenue: $5.37 billion (MISSED) expected: $5.51 billionKimberly-Clark Corp (KMB)EPS: $1.91 (BEAT) expected: $1.63Revenue: $5.15 billion (BEAT) expected: $5.09 billionPhilip Morris (PM)Adjusted EPS: $1.50 (BEAT) expected: $1.41Revenue: $8.79 billion (BEAT) expected: $8.47 billionRTX Corp (RTX)EPS: $1.34 (BEAT) expected: $1.23Revenue: $19.31 billion (BEAT) expected: $18.41 billionHalliburton Co (HAL)Adjusted EPS: $0.76 (BEAT) expected: $0.74Revenue: $5.804 billion (BEAT) expected: $5.67 billionGeneral Motors Co (GM)EPS: $2.62 (BEAT) expected: $2.15Revenue: $43 billion (BEAT) expected: $41.88 billionPulteGroup Inc (PHM)EPS: $3.10 (BEAT) expected: $2.36Revenue: $3.8 billion (BEAT) expected: $3.58 billionJetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU)Adjusted EPS: -$0.43 (BEAT) expected: -$0.52Revenue: $2.2 billion (MET) expected: $2.2 billionGeneral Electric Co (GE)EPS: $0.82 (BEAT) expected: $0.66Revenue: $15.2 billion (MISSED) expected: $15.34 billionKey earnings this week:Tuesday: After the close :Tesla, Visa, Texas InstrumentsWednesday: Boeing, AT&T, General Dynamics, Boston Scientific. After the close: Meta Platforms, IBM, Ford, Chipotle, ServiceNow, Lamb ResearchThursday: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Southwest, Bristol-Myers Squibb. After close Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Western Digital, T-Mobile, Gilead.Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $-0.59 or -0.72% at $81.30. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.66. The high price overnight reached up to $85.64.Gold is trading down -$23.50 or -1.05% at $230.41. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2357.63. Silver is trading down -$0.13 or -0.90% at $26.94. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.72. It's high price overnight reached as high as $28.93Bitcoin currently trades at $66,051 At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,091In the premarket, the US major indices are trading mostly higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 50.25 points. Yesterday, the index rose 253.58 or 0.67% at 38239.99S&P futures are implying a gain of 10.90 points. Yesterday, the index rose 43.35 points or 0.87% at 5010.59Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 44.86 points. Yesterday, the index rose 169.30 points or 1.11% at 15451.31The European indices are trading higher ahead of the US open:German DAX, +0.99%France CAC , +0.44%UK FTSE 100, +0.196%Spain's Ibex, +1.37%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.42% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higherJapan's Nikkei 225, +0.30%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.74%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, + 1.92%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.45%Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading higher:2-year yield 4.997%, +2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.999%5-year yield 4.690%, +3.0 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.623%10-year yield 4.648%, +2.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.660%30-year yield 4.750%, +2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.754%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:The 2-10 year spread is at -34.8 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -33.9 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -24.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -24.5 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:07 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. NZDThe RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion. The market expects the first cut in August.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD bounced again on the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the major trendline where they will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to turn the trend around and start targeting the 0.64 resistance zone. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg lower into the support diverged with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a bigger reversal, and it might even end up being a double bottom with the major trendline as the target. In fact, the buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the major trendline if the price were to break above the neckline at 0.5933. The sellers, on the other hand, should pile in around these levels to position for a drop back into the support targeting a break below it. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price continues to print higher lows as it trades towards the neckline. This signals that the bullish trend is intact on this timeframe and buyers are pushing into a breakout. If the price were to break below the most recent higher low at 0.5995, then the bullish trend would be invalidated and the sellers will start to pile in more aggressively to push the pair into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

New home sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on home sales on the primary market. The indicator records the number of new residential buildings sold during the past month and is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may increase from 662.0K to 668.0K, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. USA 15:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:45 am

At 15:45 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the US industry and services sector will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. Manufacturing PMI may change from 51.9 points to 52.0 points and for the services PMI from 51.7 points to 52.0 points. Read more

USD/BRL Analysis: Move Lower After Long-Term Speculative Highs Tested - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:36 am

The USD/BRL ended yesterday’s trading near the 5.1667 ratio, which is a high price level for the currency pair still.

XAU/USD Gold Price Analysis Today: Gold Exposed to Profit-Taking Sales - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:13 am

Gold prices settled around $2300 per ounce (XAUUSD) on Tuesday's trading, hovering near their lowest levels in about three weeks as fears of a wider Middle East

AUDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:05 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. AUDThe RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally dropped the tightening bias.The last Monthly CPI report came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior month.The latest labour market report missed expectations.The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong.The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI almost jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower remaining in expansion.The market expects the first rate cut in February 2025.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD fell below the 0.64 handle but eventually bounced back to retest the previous lows where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the Fibonacci level to position for a drop into the 0.6272 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 0.65 resistance zone where we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg lower diverged with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to a pullback into the resistance around the 0.6475 level. If the price were to break higher, the chances for a reversal will increase and we could see a quick rally into the 0.6520 resistance. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. The buyers are leaning on this trendline to keep bidding up the pair into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and position for a drop into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Flash PMIs. Tomorrow, we have the Australian CPI data. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Analysis: Prices Around 34-Year Highs - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:01 am

In a record-breaking upward trend, the USD/JPY surged to around the 154.85-yen resistance, hitting a 34-year low and prompting a senior official to issue fresh

GBP/USD Analysis: Price Breaks New Psychological Level - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:48 am

The pound sterling fell towards $1.23, reaching its lowest level since mid-November, as investors recalibrated their expectations for the timing of the Bank

EUR/USD Analysis: Will it Break the 1.05 Support Level Soon? - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:25 am

The EUR/USD is expected to trade higher this week, although the bigger picture is still one of weakness at the 1.05 psychological support level.

USD/SGD Analysis: Range Ignites Speculative Volatility for Traders - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:09 am

The USD/SGD did come down from the high water marks and went into the weekend near the 1.36160 vicinity.

Building permits. USA, 14:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:00 am

At 14:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the American government for the construction of real estate, being one of the most important sector indicators. The value may change from 1.524M to 1.458M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern Forms - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:55 am

The AUD/USD exchange rate continued its recovery this week as global risks eased, triggering a risk-on sentiment.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Flag Pattern Forms - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:47 am

The EUR/USD exchange rate remained in a tight range as traders focused on the next actions by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Price Could Retest $70k After Halving - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:40 am

Bitcoin has staged a strong recovery in the past few days as investors cheered last Friday’s halving event.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:39 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day positive amid a lack of bearish catalysts. It might have been one of those times when no news is good news as the geopolitical fears around the Israel-Iran escalation waned. It might also have been just a dead-cat bounce after an oversold market. Nevertheless, the US PMIs and the US PCE this week will be market moving catalysts, and it’s likely that more inflationary pressures could weigh on prices again given the recent shift in the Fed’s stance. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday bounced near the 15162 support and rallied into the 15453 resistance where we can also find the blue 8 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the 15929 level. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rally into the 15453 resistance with the price rejecting the blue 8 moving average. There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had a trendline defining the bearish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. The price yesterday broke through it, which might be an early signal of a change in sentiment although we will need to see a continuation to confirm it. In fact, if the price were to fall back below the trendline, we can expect the sellers to pile in and position for a drop into new lows. Conversely, if the price were to continue higher, the buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the 15929 resistance. Upcoming EventsToday we have the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Death Cross Pattern Points to More Downside - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:32 am

The GBP/USD exchange rate slipped for the third straight day on heightened Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cut hopes.

USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Monday

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:38 am

The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Canadian dollar on Monday but gave back gains as it looks like we are going to continue to pullback.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro Punishes the British Pound

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:34 am

The euro is shot straight up in the air during the trading session on Monday, breaking well above the 200-Day EMA against the British pound.

DAX Forex Signal: DAX Shows Signs of Life

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:15 am

The German DAX gapped to the upside during the early hours on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to recover.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - We are near key resistance levels

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:12 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD came close to the top of the one-year range around the 1.3862 level but eventually rolled off back into the 1.37 handle. We can see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.3620 level where we can find the confluence of the previous resistance turned support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the major trendline to turn the trend around and target a drop all the way back to the bottom of the range around the 1.3225 level. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price yesterday broke below the minor upward trendline turning the bias more bearish and opening the door for a drop into the 1.3620 support. We now have a minor downward trendline and the red 21 moving average defining the current bearish momentum. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 1.3620 support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into new highs. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have also the Fibonacci retracement levels on this timeframe adding some extra confluence to the bearish setup around the trendline. Watch out for the US Flash PMIs data today because it will be a market moving event.Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Flash PMIs. Tomorrow, we have the Canadian Retail Sales. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Forecast: Silver Plunges to Kick off the Week

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:02 am

Silver markets have plunged drastically to kick off the week, as we have finally seen the lack of momentum take apart this market.

CAC Forecast: Starts off the Week with a Bang

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:55 am

The French CAC has been all over the place during the trading session on Monday, buyers were more than willing to step in and pick up the equity market in France.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:11 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY got stuck in some consolidation just beneath the 155.00 handle as the market might be awaiting some new catalyst to push into either direction. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support where we can also find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another trendline where the buyers can lean onto in case of a pullback. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 151.92 support zone and then target a break below it.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rangebound price action between the 153.90 support and the 154.80 resistance. We can expect the sellers to step in around the top of the range with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely pile in in case the price breaks higher, although they will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude the week with the BoJ Rate Decision, the Tokyo CPI and later in the day, the US PCE report. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:56 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.46; (P) 191.08; (R1) 191.84; More.. No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral as consolidations from 193.51 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 190.02 will indicate that it’s at least correcting the […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:54 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.55; (P) 164.82; (R1) 165.25; More… Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation from 165.33 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.59 will argue that it’s at least correcting the […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8607; (P) 0.8626; (R1) 0.8645; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.8764 has probably completed already. Further rally would be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8649). Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 0.8764 resistance next. […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6479; (P) 1.6556; (R1) 1.6597; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. For now, further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.6368 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.6742 could have completed with three waves down to 1.6368. Above 1.6678 will target a retest on 1.6742 resistance […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Manufacturing and service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The manufacturing PMI may consolidate at 50.3 points, services PMI may drop from 53.1 points to 53.0 points, and the composite PMI may increase from 52.8 points to 52.9 points. Read more

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Key levels in sight

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:02 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the board.The market expects the first rate cut in August.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD pulled back into the broken support turned resistance around the 1.25 handle and extended the selloff into the 1.23 handle where we got a small bounce. We can notice that the price is again a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the minor black trendline where we can also find the confluence of the Fibonacci retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the major trendline around the 1.25 handle. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the bearish setup around the 1.24 handle. Watch out for the UK and the US PMIs today as they will be market moving events and will likely trigger the outlined setups. Upcoming EventsToday we get the UK and the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing and service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU countries will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 46.1 points to 46.5 points, the services PMI from 51.5 points to 51.8 points, and the composite PMI change from 50.3 points to 49.7 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. Germany, 09:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:30 pm

At 09:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Germany will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 41.9 points to 42.8 points, the services PMI from 50.1 points to 50.6 points, and the composite PMI may change from 47.7 points to 47.0 points. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOJ, AU inflation, US PCE and US Magnificent 7 stocks earnings in the focus

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:29 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation […]

Manufacturing and service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Japan will be published. They reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may correct from 48.2 points to 48.0 points, and the services PMI from 54.1 points to 54.9 points. Read more

Cable sinks to a five-month low. What's next

Apr 22, 2024 | 07:34 am

Cable carved out a range from roughly 1.25-1.28 from December to early March in what was a slog of a market as we all weighed whether the BOE would keep its hawkish stance and the Fed would signal rate cuts.For a brief moment in March, it looked like the pair would break higher but it was quickly sucked back down and that was the first sign that sellers were in control.The fundamentals eventually took over as UK inflation faded and US growth/inflation continued to steam ahead. That's ultimately led to broad US dollar strength and cable hasn't been spared. The break below 1.2500 was strong at first and it consolidated for a week at 1.2430, retesting 1.25000 several times. However it Friday the break continued and it's now extended down to 1.2316. What's next?A 300-pip range deserves a 300-pip break. Given today's fall on light newsflow, there's a signal to sell that certainly is underscored by the poor sentiment in broader markets. There isn't much support until 1.2200 which should be interim support. Eventually, I think we go and retest the Oct/Nov lows near 1.2100.For now though, this move looks a bit stretched. There isn't a strong catalyst to press the pound lower or the US dollar higher. We will get some data on US GDP and PCE later this week that could be a driver. We also get the S&P Global PMIs tomorrow and those are good forward-looking indicators. I'll be looking for any hints there on relative economic shifts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer Confidence. EU, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index will be published in the Eurozone. The indicator is calculated based on a survey of 2.3K households that evaluate the prospects for the economy. This is a leading indicator for consumer spending, its high values indicate consumer optimism, and vice versa. If in April the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -14.9 points, this will put pressure on the position of the European currency. Read more

SPX 500: How low can the correction go?

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:12 am

The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day moving average put its medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy. The current multi-week […]

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:04 am

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite broke through another key level at 15453 and extended the selloff into the 15162 support. We can also notice that the price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. The buyers might start to pile in more aggressively around these levels to position for a rally into a new all-time high with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into next support at 14477. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got overstretched on this timeframe as well. The buyers might want to start piling in around these levels or wait for a catalyst which could be either the Flash US PMIs tomorrow or the US PCE on Friday. The sellers should continue to sell the rallies though to position for the ultimate target around the 14477 level. There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and position for a rally into the 15929 level. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

New Housing Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the new housing price index for March will be published in Canada; it allows analyzing the state of the national real estate market and assessing the impact of dynamics on the economy as a whole. The value is likely to be fixed at 0.1%, pushing the Canadian dollar quotes to an uptrend. Read more

Raw Materials Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the March commodity price index will be published in Canada. Unlike the index of prices for manufactured goods, this indicator includes purchase items that are not produced in the country, and all costs incurred by the buyer of raw materials, including the goods themselves, transportation costs, net taxes paid, customs duties, are involved in its calculation. If the value continues to show negative dynamics from 2.1% MoM and from -4.7% YoY, this will act as a driver of the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Read more

I am buying this dip, IMHO, at TSLA stock before its earnings tommorrow. Here's how.

Apr 22, 2024 | 02:52 am

I am eyeing Tesla stock before tommorow's earnings report, and starting to buy nowAs equity traders, we're always on the lookout for opportunities that promise a good return against measured risk. Tesla Inc. (TSLA), the innovative electric vehicle and clean energy company, presents such an opportunity. Ahead of its earnings release tomorrow, post-market close, let's delve into why Tesla stock might be gearing up for a favorable entry point.Tesla's stock performance has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Since its all-time peak — where the company's value skyrocketed by over 100% — the price has corrected significantly, hovering around 52% below that zenith. This correction has captured the attention of traders looking for discounted entries into high-potential stocks.The technical perspective at TSLA stock, see my videoFrom a technical analysis standpoint, there's an interesting setup forming. Tesla's price action is approaching the lower band of a Pitchfork pattern, coinciding with a gap formed post the earnings announcement on January 23. These technical indicators often attract traders who look for historical patterns to repeat themselves.A net of buy orders predefined and ready, with the Levitan MethodMost traders do not know the Levitan method for dip buying so here goes... Although they might see this as an auspicious moment to consider entry as the downtrend is in play, that is clear. As the video shows a range where we target our buys, one might look to initiate a position at $142.61, closely aligned with the current premarket price. The plan involves scaling into the position — buying more shares at calculated lower points — and employing a disciplined stop-loss and take-profit strategy to manage risk.A contrarian bet with calculated riskOne could argue that much of the negative news surrounding Tesla might already be priced in. If true, this contrarian approach might just pay off handsomely, especially for those willing to endure short-term volatility for long-term gains. With a stop loss set at 5% below the entry point and a take-profit target at a hefty 35% above, the risk-reward ratio stands at an attractive 7:1.Long-term optimism but sharp risk managementWhile traders might decide to take partial profits along the way, holding a portion of Tesla stock for the long haul could be wise. If Tesla were to revisit its all-time high — a prospect that is not out of the question — the upside could be substantial.You can enlarge the below image to see the details of the buying method and trade plan or TSLA stock.Trade Plan for TSLA using the Levitan MethodIdentify Potential Dip Points: Analyze the stock chart of TSLA to identify potential dip points below the current market price where demand may increase, using technical analysis indicators and historical price levels.Determine Buy Levels and Shares: Plan to enter three separate buy orders at these dip points, with the number of shares based on a Fibonacci series. For instance:First Buy Order: 33 shares (33 x 1)Second Buy Order: 66 shares (33 x 2)Third Buy Order: 99 shares (33 x 3)Calculate Weighted Average Entry Price: If all three buy orders are filled, calculate the weighted average price of the shares purchased. This price will serve as the reference point for setting stop loss and take profit levels.Set Stop Loss and Take Profit: Set a stop loss at 5% below the weighted average entry price to limit potential losses. Set a take profit level at 35% above the average entry price to lock in profits, aiming for a 7:1 reward-to-risk ratio.Adjustments and Partial Profits: Traders may choose to take partial profits at a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio if the price reaches a 20% gain. Additionally, consider leaving a portion of the position (e.g., 20%) to potentially benefit from long-term growth in TSLA stock.Risk Management: Allocate a specific portion of the trading budget to this strategy, and do not exceed it to manage risk effectively.Monitor the Trade: Keep a close eye on TSLA’s price action, news, and overall market sentiment, ready to adjust the trade plan as needed.Document and Review: Record the details of all trades and review them regularly to refine the strategy over time.Investing in Tesla right now is a classic contrarian bet, rooted in technical analysis and a belief in the company's market position. As with all trading, there's an inherent risk, and it's crucial to trade based on one’s own research and risk tolerance. For those with an appetite for risk and an eye for potential, Tesla's dip could be a launching pad for significant returns. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com for further analysis and updates on this developing story.Remember, trade at your own risk. This article is not financial advice but rather a perspective on market opportunities based on current conditions. Always conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in equity trading. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 02:46 am

Last week, the Dow Jones got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has been trading inside a rising channel and continued to diverge with the MACD for a long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. Recently, we got a breakout which opened the door for a bigger correction into the 37128 level. The sellers managed to break the second key support level and will now target a drop into the third and last one at 37128. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break the current downward trend to start targeting new highs. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got stuck in a consolidation just beneath the second key level. We also got a break above the downward trendline which might be an early signal for a bigger pullback. The buyers will need the price to break above the 38043 level to increase the chances for a bullish move and position for a rally into the 38464 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the 38043 level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 37128 support. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone around the 38043 level with several rejections from it. The moving averages on this timeframe have crossed to the upside and we have a divergence with the MACD, which could be another early signal for a bullish move into the 38464 resistance. If the price were to break higher and reach the 38464 zone, we can expect the sellers to pile in more aggressively there as they will have an even better risk to reward setup to target a drop into the 37128 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:23 am

Last week, the S&P 500 got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 continues to rollover with the trend now looking clearly bearish as the price keeps on printing lower lows and lower highs with the moving averages being crossed to the downside. The price has now reached another key support level at 4946. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 4846.S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous support now turned resistance at 5057 where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor black trendline defining the current downward momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again if we get a pullback into the trendline to position for a break below the 4946 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target a rally into the 5057 resistance. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Industrial Orders Index from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI). UK, 12:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:00 am

At 12:00 (GMT+2), April data on the index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI) will be published in the UK. It is calculated on the basis of a survey of representatives of leading British enterprises and is an important indicator of the state of British business. If the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -18.0 points, this may put pressure on the pound. Read more

Consumer Confidence. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), Turkey will publish April data on the consumer confidence index, reflecting the degree of confidence in the strength of the national economy. If the indicator continues its positive dynamics from the current 79.4 points, this may support the lira's position. Read more

Rightmove Group Ltd. House Price Index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2) in the UK, the house price index for April from the research company Rightmove Group Ltd. will be published, recording the change in the average cost of houses for sale. If it continues its negative dynamics from the current 0.8%, this may put pressure on the pound's position. Read more

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report records changes in the amount of oil production capacity in the United States. The number of towers was last down to 506 units, and a continuation of this trend could support oil prices. Read more

Euro edges higher, ECB eyes June cut

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:14 am

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest […]

USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI eases

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:54 am

The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down […]

GBP/USD edges higher after flat retail sales

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%. Fuel sales were […]

Retail sales. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be published in the UK. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). The rate is expected to adjust from 0.0% to 0.3% MoM and from –0.4% to –0.7% YoY, while the core figure is likely to fall from 0.2% to −0.1% MoM and from −0.5% to −0.9% YoY, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Producer price index. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will publish the March producer price index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting the monthly change in prices for goods and services provided by producers, and has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. The figure is likely to adjust from –0.4% to 0.0% MoM and from –4.1% to –3.8% YoY, supporting the euro. Read more

Nationwide Core Consumer Price Index. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), the March national core consumer price index will be published, recording changes in the cost of goods and services, except food and energy. It is a key way to determine purchasing trends and inflation in Japan. It is expected to decline from 2.8% to 2.7% YoY. Read more

Consumer Confidence Index from GfK Group. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), data on the consumer confidence index from GfK Group will be published in the UK. The indicator evaluates the spending of the country’s residents, which is part of economic activity. The negative dynamics are expected to slow down from −21.0 points to −19.0 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

Existing Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States will be published, which reflect the number of existing residential buildings sold during the past month, and are one of the most important indicators of the construction market. The figure is expected to decrease from 4.38 million to 4.20 million. Read more

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 211.0 thousand to 214.0 thousand. Read more

Trade Balance. Switzerland, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on Trade Balance in Switzerland will be published. This indicator captures the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The indicator is projected to decrease from the current 3.662 billion francs to 3.220 billion francs, which may put pressure on the exchange rate of the Swiss national currency. Read more

Employment Change. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March employment data will be published in Australia, recording the change in the number of employed citizens. The indicator is expected to decrease from 116.5 thousand to 7.2 thousand. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Unemployment Rate. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in Australia, which records the percentage of the number of registered unemployed over the age of 18 to the total working-age population. The indicator is expected to adjust from 3.7% to 3.9%. Read more

Beige Book. USA, 20:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 09:00 am

At 20:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed) will publish the Beige Book economic report. It characterizes the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and contains information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market, and other indicators at the moment. The document is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Read more

AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]

NZ dollar rebounds on sticky inflation report

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:16 am

The New Zealand dollar has bounced back with strong gains on Wednesday, ending a nasty slide of 3.4% which started last week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5907, up 0.45%. New Zealand inflation falls less than expected New Zealand’s CPI continued to ease in the first quarter but the markets were […]

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 18:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:00 am

At 18:00 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech, in which investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more

GBP/USD rises as UK inflation higher than expected

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:46 am

The British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation eased to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% in February […]

EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish exhaustion condition detected after 2-month of rallies

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:24 am

A bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is at risk of shaping a short-term mean reversion decline within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch […]

NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 am

The New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]

Canadian dollar extends losses as Canada’s inflation rises

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:16 am

The Canadian dollar is down for a fifth straight day and has slipped 1.9% during that time. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3840, up 0.37%. Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% Canada’s inflation rate for March rose to 2.9% y/y, ticking up from 2.8% in February and above the market forecast of […]

Currency war and geopolitical risk are deadly concoctions for risk assets

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:00 am

The odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be forced to enact “beggar-thy-neighbour” typed monetary policies to deliberately weaken their respective currencies. […]

GBP/USD dips after weak employment data

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:10 am

The British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job growth took a hard hit in the three months to February as […]

Market Insights Podcast – Pause in oil rally, UK and Japan inflation, China Q1 GDP are the focus for this week

Apr 15, 2024 | 18:38 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, the possible scenarios on the trajectory oil prices after its 13% rally seen in the past month amid geopolitical tensions in Middle East with fears of tic-for-tact retaliation moves between Israel and Iran. Secondly, the adverse […]

GBP/USD eyes UK employment release

Apr 15, 2024 | 08:12 am

The British pound is steady on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.05%. US retail sales climb 0.7% US consumers continue to shop and spend as March retail sales was stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, up from a revised 0.9% gain in February and above the […]

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