Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

Tokyo Core consumer price index. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), the April core consumer price index is due, recording changes in the price of goods and services in the Japanese capital, except food and energy. It is a key way to determine purchasing trends and inflation in a country. It may drop from 2.4% to 2.2% QoQ. Read more

GfK consumer confidence. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2) in the UK, April data on the consumer confidence index from GfK Group is due. The indicator evaluates the spending of the country’s residents, which is part of economic activity. The negative dynamics may slow from −21.0 points to −20.0 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

USDCAD another pair that has retraced the USD gains. Back down testing 50% midpoint.

Apr 25, 2024 | 11:31 am

The USDCAD has been trading up and down over the last few days of trading. The volatility intensified today with a move lower into retracement and swing area support, followed by a move higher into swing area resistance, followed by another move lower into the same retracement and swing area support as the initial move down today.The price is currently testing the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.36612. The swing area is between 1.3654 up to 1.3668.The decision for traders is whether to buy the dip against the 50%/against the swing area down to 1.36546 (and for the subsequent bounce), or look for a break of that level with more momentum pushing the price down toward the 61.8% retracement and rising 200 bar moving average on 4 hur chart at 1.3615 area? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD retracing most of the gains from core PCE rise

Apr 25, 2024 | 10:36 am

The USD moved higher on the back of the core PCE data within the US GDP report. However, those gains have nearly been erased. Although the yields are still higher, they are off their highest levels. US stocks have also erased some of their declines with the NASDAQ index now down -1.10% or -167 points. At session lows, the NASDAQ was down -368.83 points. The S&P index was down -81.04 points at session lows. It is currently down -38.39 points.EURUSD:The EURUSD moved down to test its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart below) after the higher PCE data. That support level did hold support. The price has now moved back near the high for the day at 1.0739. The current price is trading at 1.0737. The 50% midpoint of the April trading range is at 1.07425. Get and stay above those levels would be more bullish.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved down to retest the broken 38.2% retracement after the GDP data at 1.2455. Buyers leaned against the level and have now pushed the price back up toward its high for the day in the process, the price is now moving back above its 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.25133. The high for the day reached 1.25244 right after the data release. Move above that level and traders would target the 61.8% retracement at 1.25519, and the 200-day moving out at 1.25597.USDCHF: The USDCHF moved higher today and extended above the 2024 high but only by about three pips. Buyers could not muster up some momentum (see chart below). The subsequent move back to the downside, has now moved back toward its 100 and 200-hour moving averages between 0.9117 and 0.9122. Getting and staying below those levels would have traders looking down toward the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% retracement of the April trading range. Both those levels come in at 0.9095 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBPUSD ping-ponging between 38.2% and 50% of the April trading range

Apr 25, 2024 | 09:32 am

The volatile move to the upside in the dollar after the US GDP, has reversed course after holding support against its broken 38.2% retracement of the April trading range. The corrective move has also stalled against the 50% of the same range.Traders are awaiting the next shove outside of the retracement levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 25-27, 2024: buy above 1.0684 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:56 am

EUR/USD is trading around 1.10710, above the 21 SMA, and within the uptrend channel forming since April 12. During the European session, the euro reached a high of 1.07388, the level that coincided with the top of the bullish trend channel and with the 4/8 Murray zone. Both levels represent strong resistance.Since reaching the top of the bullish channel, EUR/USD lost ground. Since then, it has been bouncing above the SMA 21 located at 1.0584 and around 3/8 Murray which represents strong support.In the next few hours, we could look for opportunities to buy the euro only if it trades above 1.0684 (21 SMA) with targets at 1.0735 and at the 200 EMA located at 1.0757.In case the euro reaches the resistance level of 1.0760, it could be seen as an opportunity to sell as the eagle indicator has been giving an overbought signal since April 24. Thus, we could expect a technical correction to occur in the few next days.Technically, the euro is within an uptrend channel. While trading within this channel, any technical correction will be seen as a signal to buy. On the contrary, a break below this channel could revive the bearish cycle and the instrument could reach the psychological level of 1.05.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 25-27, 2024: buy above $2,324 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:36 am

Gold is trading around 2,333, above the 21 SMA, and above 5/8 Murray with a bullish bias. In the H4 chart, we can see that gold made a recovery above 5/8 Murray, reached the top of the bullish channel, and is now falling.We hope that Gold can continue its rise and reach 2,345 in the next few hours. If a break occurs above this area, we could look for opportunities to buy with a target at 2,375 (6/8 Murray). The metal could finally cover the gap left at 2,391.In case gold makes a technical correction and reaches the support of 2,312 (5/8 Murray), this will be seen as an opportunity to resume buying and the price could hit the target of 2,375.The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to buy provided that gold trades above 2,312.On the contrary, if gold consolidates below 5/8 Murray and breaks the bullish trend channel, the current trend could change and we could expect a bearish acceleration. Therefore, the instrument could fall towards the 200 EMA located at 2,270 and finally to 4/8 Murray at 2,250.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUDUSD ups and downs as fundamental news keeps volatility high for the pair.

Apr 25, 2024 | 08:24 am

Earlier this week, Australian CPI for the quarter came in higher than expectations and that helped to push the AUDUSD pair to the upside. The price extended to the 200-day moving average and 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart near 0.6530 where sellers leaned. The subsequent move to the downside move the price to a swing area between 0.6475 and 0.6486. The price also wrote below it's 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart and 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 0.65028.Today despite Australian and New Zealand the nonholiday, the AUDUSD resumed its upward momentum and took the price safely above its 200 bar moving averages on the top side.Then US inflation became the focus, and the pair moved lower after higher core PCE in the US GDP report. The price has subsequently moved back below the 50% midpoint and 100 bar moving average at 0.65028. That level is now close resistance for traders and will represent a barometer for buyers and sellers. Stay below is more bearish. Move above and stay above would be more bullish.Find out about all the ups and downs in the AUDUSD in the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Analysis of GBP/USD on April 25th. The dollar suffered a local defeat to win the war

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:52 am

For the GBP/USD pair, wave analysis remains quite complex but may become clearer in the coming weeks. A successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or c. If this wave does continue to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I have already noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable to work with. There needs to be more simplicity and understanding in recent months. For a long time, the pair has been in a sideways movement and only now has real chances of building an impulsive downward wave.In the current situation, my readers can expect the construction of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the pound should decline by another minimum of 300–400 basis points. With such a decline, wave 3 or c will be quite small; I expect a much larger decline in quotes. The news background supports the US dollar, and after breaking through the level of 1.2469 (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological blockade on sellers has been removed.Sellers return to the market. The GBP/USD pair rate managed to rise by 65 basis points on Thursday and then fall by the same amount. In the first half of the day, there was no news background, and the market was busy building an internal corrective wave as part of wave 3 or c. In the second half of the day, the US released GDP data, which hardly anyone can interpret unequivocally in favor of the US currency. It was more negative than positive. However, if this report is a barrel, then at least 30–40% of its volume is honey. In other words, the market had reasons to increase demand for the US currency today.There are several reasons for this:The downward trend section and impulsive downward wave construction are still ongoing for the pair. Therefore, any upward correction is only a local corrective wave.The US GDP report for the first quarter could have been more straightforward, but it still indicates fairly good growth in the US economy. And when was the last time we saw growth in the British economy?The key factor for the market is the Bank of England and the Fed rates, which continue to work in favor of the US currency.The FOMC continues to signal that there should be no talk of monetary policy easing before the end of this year. Such rhetoric is very different from the market's expectations regarding the Bank of England rates, which, according to general opinion, could start to decline as early as July or August. Certainly, there can be no complete certainty about this, as the same market and the same economists were confident in the Fed rate cut in March. But still, the news background is currently in favor of the dollar and sellers.General conclusions. The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At the moment, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the level of 1.2039, as wave 3 or c is starting to develop. A successful attempt to break through the level of 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the market's long-awaited readiness to build a downward wave.On a larger wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward corrective section of the trend continues to develop, and its second wave has taken on an extended form—up to 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level could have led to the start of wave 3 or c construction.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play with, often bringing about changes.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There can never be 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Remember about Stop Loss protective orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 25th (US session)

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:46 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese YenThere were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, which prevented market entry. Traders are counting on strong US statistics, which could continue the robust growth of the pair observed during the Asian session. Ahead of us are data on initial jobless claims, changes in US GDP volume, the balance of trade in goods, and changes in the volume of pending home sales. Only indicators above economists' forecasts will prompt dollar buyers to act more actively again, despite all the risks of intervention by the Bank of Japan, which has been quiet for a long time. In the case of weak statistics, the USD/JPY pair could be corrected significantly. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 155.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 156.15 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.15, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's growth today will only be possible after very strong US GDP statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.49, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 155.67 and 156.14.Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 155.49 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.12, where I will exit sales and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.67, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 155.49 and 155.12.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. nd remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound edges higher after soft US GDP

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:46 am

The British is in positive territory on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2492, up 0.23%. US GDP slows to 1.6% Is the US economy finally slowing down? Recent key indicators, from nonfarm payrolls to consumer inflation have been stronger than expected, but the markets could hear the “thud” of today’s […]

Spot gold is now up over 1%, and in the process is extending back above its 100H MA

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:45 am

Gold price is seeing a push to the upside with the price now up $28.44 or 1.23% at $2343.68. The high price just reached $2344.89 new high for the day.That move to the upside has now taken the price back above its 100 hour moving average at $2335.13. Stay above that moving average would be more bullish with the 200 hour moving out at $2356.62 as the next key tactical target.The high price of gold reached $2431.78 back on April 12. That is the new all-time high price for the precious metal.The corrective low which stalled at $2291 on Tuesday of this week, bottomed just above its 50% midpoint of the move up from the March 18 below. That midpoint level comes in at $2288.74. Buyers were ready to stick a toe in the water against that midpoint level.Gold remains a safe haven. Reports that Israel strikes on Rafah were intensifying. So although the tension between Iran and Israel has lessened, the focus returns to Gaza and Hamas. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 25th (US session)

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:38 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British PoundThe test of the price at 1.2488 in the first half came at a moment when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy, as it was not advisable to rely heavily on reports from the UK. I didn't see any other market entry signals. Ahead are the figures for changes in GDP volume for the first quarter of this year in the US, and quite good indicators could bring pressure back to the British pound, leading to a major sell-off. Also, pay attention to data on the balance of trade in goods and changes in the volume of pending home sales. However, the GDP report will be the key event. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenario #1, even despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong and directional movement.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2522 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.2589 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.2589, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pound growth today can only be expected after weak US GDP data within an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2491, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.2522 and 1.2589.Sell SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.2491 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2428, where I will exit sales and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves in the case of strong US reports. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2522, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.2491 and 1.2428.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 25th (US session)

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:33 am

Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European CurrencyThe test of the price at 1.0726 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell. After a short period, several tests of 1.0726 under the same conditions led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling. However, a significant drop in the pair did not occur. Ahead of us are a number of important reports that could turn the market around. We are expecting figures on the number of initial jobless claims in the US, changes in GDP for the first quarter, and the balance of trade in goods. Strong reports, especially those related to GDP, will lead to the strengthening of the pair, so I will act despite the MACD indicator, relying more on the implementation of scenario #1. If the data disappoints and turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, it's a reason to buy the euro further in the uptrend.Buy SignalScenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0733 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0789. At 1.0789, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak US GDP statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0704, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0733 and 1.0789.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0704 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0645, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the absence of buyer activity near the daily maximum and strong US GDP statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0733, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0704 and 1.0645.What's on the chart:Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument; Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely; Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument; Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely; MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes. Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 25th (analysis of morning deals). The pound continued its recovery

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:22 am

In my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.2478 and planned to make decisions based on it for market entry. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened there. The breakout at 1.2478 occurred, but we never reached a downward retest, so I was left without entry signals. The technical picture was slightly revised for the second half of the day.To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Strong US GDP data could bring pressure back to risk assets, including the British pound, as this will help the Federal Reserve maintain its tough policy, which recently has allowed the US dollar to demonstrate strength. I plan to act on the decline, as it's uncertain how the market will behave. The formation of a false breakout around the new support at 1.2471, formed at the end of the first half of the day, will provide an entry point for buying with the aim of rising to the resistance at 1.2524, above which we have not managed to break out yet. A breakout and a retest of this range from top to bottom will return the chance of a GBP/USD recovery, leading to new purchases and allowing us to reach 1.2573. If we move above this range, we can talk about a surge towards 1.2621, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level will be a clear signal of a new trend formation. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2471 in the second half of the day, and for this, very good US statistics are needed to exceed economists' forecasts, sellers will regain control of the market, allowing for further significant pair decline along the trend. In this case, I will look for buys around 1.2428. The formation of a false breakout will be a suitable option for market entry. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2383 with a target of a 30-35 point correction within the day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Bears have every chance to continue the decline of the pair, but to do this, they need to break below 1.2471. If US data disappoints, GBP/USD will continue to rise. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the resistance at 1.2524, formed at the end of the first half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakout there will allow us to ensure the presence of large sellers in the market, leading to a decline in GBP/USD to around 1.2471, just below where the moving averages are located. A breakout and a reverse test from the bottom to the top of this range will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another selling point with the goal of refreshing 1.2428. The ultimate target will be the minimum at 1.2383, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a GBP/USD rise and the absence of bears at 1.2524 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to continue the correction upwards towards the resistance at 1.2573. I will only initiate sales there on a false breakout. In the absence of activity there as well, I suggest opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2621, expecting a pair rebound downwards by 30-35 points within the day.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) as of April 16, there was a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. Pound buyers continue to leave the market, and there are objective reasons for this: released inflation data in the UK and the US indicated the need for further price growth control, which will certainly force central banks to continue their tough stance. Considering that the UK economy suffers much more from all this than the US economy, it's not surprising why pressure on the British pound has sharply increased. New statements from regulator representatives also negatively affected the bullish prospects for the pound. Add to all this the need to maintain a tough stance by the Federal Reserve, and it's hardly worth expecting a strong bullish market in the GBP/USD pair. The latest COT report states that long non-commercial positions decreased by 8,200 to 71,800, while short non-commercial positions increased by 11,433 to 63,181. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 1,334.Indicator Signals:Moving AveragesTrading is above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a bullish market character. Note: The author considers the periods and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2428, will act as support.Description of Indicators:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA - period 12. Slow EMA - period 26. SMA - period 9.Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period - 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EURUSD moves lower and tests the 100 hour MA. Finds buyers.

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:21 am

The EURUSD fell after the higher than expected inflation data from the US GDP report. The fall took the price back below the 38.2% retracement 1.0709 and down to test its rising 100 hour moving average at 1.06786. Support buyers leaned against that moving average level, and have pushed the price back to the upside. Getting back above the 38.2% retracement at 1.0709 and staying above that level is needed to increase the bullish bias. Above that level, and a swing area up to 1.07314 would be targeted.The high-priced today stall just ahead of its 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.07425. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 25th (analysis of morning deals). The dollar is ready for GDP data

Apr 25, 2024 | 07:02 am

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.0726 and planned to make decisions based on it for market entry. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. Growth and the formation of a false breakout led to a signal to sell the euro, resulting in a 15-point drop in the pair, which was the end of it all. The technical picture was reviewed for the second half of the day.To open long positions on EURUSD, the following is required:German data pushed the euro up in the first half of the day, but significant growth of the pair did not occur. Ahead are GDP data, and I will act as follows: good statistics will lead to a sharp decline in the euro and a rise in the US dollar, so I do not expect any significant buyer activity around 1.0717. Only a false breakout there, along with weak US data, will provide an entry point for long positions capable of pushing the euro towards the significant resistance at 1.0754. A breakout and a new high above this range will lead to the formation of a new bullish market and a buy signal with a chance to surge to 1.0779. The ultimate target will be the maximum at 1.0798, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a decline in EUR/USD and the absence of activity around 1.0717, as well as US GDP growth above economists' forecasts, pressure on the euro within the bearish trend will return. In this case, I will enter the market only after a false breakout around the next support at 1.0639. I plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0601 with a target of a 30-35 point upward correction within the day.To open short positions on EURUSD, the following is required:Euro sellers have all the chances for a further decline in the pair, but, as you understand, strong US statistics are needed for this. In case of growth, bears will have to show themselves around 1.0754, and a test there may occur soon. Formation of a false breakout there will be an excellent scenario for entering short positions with a target of a decline to around 1.0717. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a reverse bottom-up test, will provide another selling point, with the pair moving towards 1.0682, which will return to the bearish trend. There, I expect more active involvement of large buyers. The ultimate target will be the minimum at 1.0639, where I will take profit. In case of upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day, as well as the absence of bears at 1.0754, bears will say goodbye to hopes of regaining control of the market. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0779. There, I will also sell, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.0798 with a target of a 30-35 point downward correction.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) as of April 16, there was an increase in both long and short positions. Obviously, after the European Central Bank meeting and the soft tone of its policymakers, as well as the latest inflation data in the US, which continued to rise, it isn't easy to imagine that buyers of the European currency will show activity in the near future. Obviously, the higher the chances of maintaining a tough stance by the Federal Reserve, the stronger the US dollar will become against a number of other world currencies. For this reason, I am betting on further development of the bullish trend for the US dollar and a decline in the euro. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 3,493 to 178,912, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 23,992 to 166,688. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 226.Indicator Signals:Moving AveragesTrading is above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair growth.Note: The author considers the periods and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.0682, will act as support.Description of IndicatorsMoving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USDCHF trades to a new high but backs off again on the first test

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:57 am

The USDCHF has moved higher after an initial dip post weaker GDP growth. However, when traders noticed the price data, the price quickly reversed higher. In the process, the high price for the year from yesterday at 0.9152 was breached with a new high reaching 0.91558, but momentum could not be sustained and the price has since rotated modestly lower.If the buyers are to take more control they need to get and stay above 0.9152. Alternatively, support against the 100 and 200 hour moving averages at 0.9117 to 0.9120 must hold support if the buyers are to keep control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:37 am

.Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0680; (P) 1.0697; (R1) 1.0716; More… EUR/USD retreated after brief breach of 1.0723 support turned resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 1.0677 support will indicate rejection by 1.0723, and turn bias back to the downside. EUR/USD should then resume larger down trend through 1.0601 low. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0723 […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9121; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9167; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF is back on the upside with breach of 0.9151 resistance. Current rally from 0.8332 should target 0.9243 key resistance next. On the downside, though, below 0.9085 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:31 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 fibonacci level will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 154.77 resistance turned support will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart the FX day for April 25 with a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:17 am

Kickstart your Forex trading day with a technical look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The US GDP data showed a bad mix with lower growth and higher inflation. That said stocks lower, yields higher, and the US dollar higher as well. That is been reflected in these three major currency pairs. The USDJPY is banging against its highs for the day and moving further away from the 155.00 level. The EURUSD is moving back down toward a swing area between 1.0655 and 1.0675. The GBPUSD is moving lower as well and looks back toward its broken 38.2% retracement of the April trading range at 1.2455 after trading above the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.25126 and failing. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:07 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday found resistance near the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. If we get another push higher, the sellers should step in around the 15929 resistance where they will also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the 21 moving average on this timeframe. The 15929 resistance will be key because it should tell us if this was just a pullback before another flush lower or the first move towards a new all-time high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have some minor support around the 15620 level where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in to position for a break above the 15929 resistance with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

The AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:04 am

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest. The USD is mostly lower to start the US trading day. The AUDUSD and NZDUSD resumed their runs to the upside (despite holidays in the two countries today). Recall the Australian CPI data was stronger than expected on Wednesday. After a run higher, off the data yesterday in the AUDUSD to the 200-day MA, the price corrected. Today, the price is back up testing the 200-day MA (and 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart) near 0.6530. The NZDUSD is following along. The USDJPY has continued its roam to the upside and once again is making a new high going back to 1990. The pair moved above the 155.00 level yesterday as reports that the BOJ "line in the sand" at the 155.00 level is really not so.Overnight, ING was dismissive of concerns about possible yen intervention saying:Ahead of Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting, there will no doubt be more chatter about intervention.However, the speed of the decline in the JPY relative to other currencies is not particularly alarming at this point, and that is probably more important to the BoJ than any particular line in the sand.Bank of America warned that USD/JPY could move to 160 quickly, saying there is little prospect for the Bank of Japan to halt the rise with its communications.BoA says what would be required from the BoJ to firm up the yen:It should acknowledge that policy has been too accommodative,The next hike is as imminent as in June,The terminal rate would be higher than priced by the market.”However, BoA also says that such communication from the Bank is unlikely. The BOJ announces their most recent rate decision on Friday. Today, the US GDP and weekly claims data will be released at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is expected at 2.4% for the Advanced report. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow came in at 2.7% for its final guesstimate from its model. They have been very accurate of late. The Initial jobless claims are expected at 215K vs 212K last week. After the close yesterday Meta released earnings that beat expectations but showed higher than expected capital spending ahead and was light marginally on the midpoint of the revenue guidance vs expectations. The stock is getting hammered in pre-market trading today. Below is a list of the major earnings released after the close last night and whether they BEAT or MISSED expectations along with a snapshot of the stock price change in pre-market trading. (at 7:05 AM ET):ServiceNow Inc: Shares down -4.50%Adj. EPS: $3.41, beating expectations of $3.14Revenue: $2.60 billion, beating expectations of $2.59 billionChipotle Mexican Grill Inc: Shares are higher by +3.19%Adj. EPS: $13.37, beating expectations of $11.68Revenue: $2.70 billion, beating expectations of $2.67 billionInternational Business Machines Corp. Shares are down -8.75%.Adj. EPS: $1.68, beating expectations of $1.60Revenue: $14.46 billion, missed expectations of $14.55 billionLam Research Corp: Shares are down -0.89%Adj. EPS: $7.79, beating expectations of $7.30Revenue: $3.79 billion, beating expectations of $3.72 billionMeta Platforms Inc. Shares are tumbling -14.24%.EPS: $4.71, beating expectations of $4.32Revenue: $36.46 billion, beating expectations of $36.16 billionQ2 2024 Revenue View: $36.5-39 billion, The midpoint is lower than the markets estimateFY24 Capex View: $35-40 billion, higher than expectations of $34.73 billionFord Motor Co: Shares are up 2.08%Adj. EPS: $0.49, beating expectations of $0.42Revenue: $42.80 billion, beating expectations of $40.10 billionThere has been a number of earnings released this morning. Caterpillar missed on Revenues which is dragging down the Dow. Below are the summary of their EPS and Revenue numbers including a snapshot of premarket trading levels (at 7:20 AM ET):American Airlines Group Inc (AAL): Share are up 4.17%EPS: -0.34 (Missed, exp. -0.29)Revenue: 12.6 billion (Met, exp. 12.6 billion)Comcast Corp (CMCSA): Shares are up 0.60%EPS: 1.04 (Beat, exp. 0.99)Revenue: 30.06 billion (Beat, exp. 29.81 billion)Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY): Shares are down -1.74%EPS: -4.40 (Beat, exp. -4.44)Revenue: 11.865 billion (Beat, exp. 11.46 billion)Northrop Grumman (NOC): Shares are near unchangedEPS: 6.32 (Beat, exp. 5.79)Revenue: 10.1 billion (Beat, exp. 9.77 billion)Southwest Airlines Co (LUV): Shares are down -8.87%.EPS: -0.36 (Missed, exp. -0.34)Revenue: 6.33 billion (Missed, exp. 6.42 billion)Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL): Shares are up 3.12%EPS: 1.77 (Beat, exp. 1.33)Revenue: 3.7 billion (Beat, exp. 3.69 billion)Caterpillar Inc (CAT): Shares are down -3.99%EPS: 5.60 (Beat, exp. 5.14)Revenue: 15.8 billion (Missed, exp. 16.04 billion)Merck & Co Inc (MRK): Shares are up 1.87%EPS: 2.07 (Beat, exp. 1.88)Revenue: 15.77 billion (Beat, exp. 15.2 billion)Valero Energy Corp (VLO): Shares are down -0.32%EPS: 3.82 (Beat, exp. 3.24)Revenue: 31.8 billion (Missed, exp. 33.09 billion)Dow Inc (DOW): Shares are down -0.67%EPS: 0.56 (Beat, exp. 0.45)Revenue: 10.76 billion (Beat, exp. 10.74 billion)Honeywell International (HON): Shares up up 2.06%EPS: 2.25 (Beat, exp. 2.17)Revenue: 9.1 billion (Beat, exp. 9.03 billion)As if the above is not enough, Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, T-Mobile, Gilead all report after the close today.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading up $0.14 or 0.17% at $82.95. At this time yesterday, the price was at $83.02Gold is trading up $14.01 or 0.60% at $2329.19. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2314.95Silver is trading up $0.29 or 1.06% and $27.42.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $27.08Bitcoin currently trades at $63,829. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,615In the premarket, the US major indices are trading lower as markets react to Meta Platforms sharp decline. The three-day streak in the broader indices are at risk today. Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a decline of -207 points. Yesterday, the index fell -42.77 points or -0.11% at 38460.93S&P futures are implying a decline of -31.13 points. Yesterday, the index rose 1.06 points or 0.02% at 5071.62Nasdaq futures are implying a decline of -158 points. Yesterday, the index rose 16.11 points or 0.10% at 15712.75The European indices are trading mixed ahead of the US open:German DAX, -0.56%France CAC , -0.81%UK FTSE 100, +0.68%Spain's Ibex, +0.20%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.19% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian[…]

Pending Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on the index of pending sales in the US real estate market will be published. The index reflects changes in the number of signed but unpaid contracts for the purchase of housing and is an important indicator of the activity of the sector. It is expected that the indicator will decrease from 1.6% to 0.9%, acting as a catalyst for slowing the upward dynamics of the US dollar quotes. Read more

USD/TRY Forecast: Lira Stabilizes Ahead of Central Bank Rate Decision - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:15 am

Trading of the USD/TRY remained stable during morning trading today, Thursday, with the pair seeing no significant changes throughout the current week.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:01 am

Yesterday, the Dow Jones ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones pulled back into the key resistance level at 38464 where we can also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 37128 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bearish setup around the 38464 resistance and we can also notice that the trend on this timeframe has already shifted to the upside. This might be an early signal for a rally into a new all-time high, but the price will need to break above the resistance to confirm it and trigger an even stronger bullish wave. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a black counter-trendline that is defining the current bullish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. The sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to confirm a reversal and increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the all-time high. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Analysis: Yen Slumps to 34-Year Low - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 04:00 am

The Japanese yen witnessed further weakness against its counterpart, the US dollar, falling to its lowest level in over three decades.

Gold Analysis: Prices Trying to Hold Uptrend - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:54 am

Gold prices pared losses after weaker-than-expected US business activity data helped bolster the case for Fed rate cuts this year.

USD/JPY ticks higher ahead of BoJ meeting

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:52 am

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the European session USD/JPY is trading at 155.61, up 0.17%. Earlier, the yen dropped to a 34-year low of 155.74. Friday will be a busy day out of Japan. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes food, is a key leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends. It […]

GBP/USD Analysis: Focus Shifts Cautiously to US Data - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:46 am

According to recent trading activity, GBP/USD has been on the rise, easing some recent selling pressure.

EUR/USD Analysis: Euro Stabilizes Ahead of Data - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:38 am

After gains this week, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to be better protected against further weakness.

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 212.0 thousand to 215.0 thousand. Read more

Gross Domestic Product. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 25, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q1 2024 will be published. It is the main indicator that reflects the state of the national economy and takes into account domestic consumption, investment, government spending and exports. QoQ, the value is expected to adjust from 3.4% to 2.5%, and the deflator — from 1.7% to 3.0%, exerting local pressure on the position of the national currency. Read more

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - We are at a cluster of resistance levels

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:44 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI beating expectations and the Manufacturing PMI missing forecasts and slipping back into contraction. The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the board.The market expects the first rate cut in August.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD pulled back into a cluster of resistance levels around the 1.25 handle where we can find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the red 21 moving average and the trendline. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into the 1.28 handle. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price recently broke through the minor downward trendline and the resistance zone around the 1.24 handle and triggered a bullish move into the 1.25 handle as the buyers piled in more aggressively. What happens around the 1.25 resistance and the major trendline will be key as it will likely decide the direction for the next few weeks. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg higher into the resistance is diverging with the MACD. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a rejection and should give the sellers even more conviction for a move lower. If the price breaks below the black counter-trendline and the support zone around the 1.2460 level, it will be a confirmation for a reversal and will likely trigger a strong bearish move into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD. April 25th. Bulls continue to advance and expect a weak US GDP report

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:41 am

The EUR/USD pair made a new turnaround in favor of the European currency on Wednesday, consolidating above the corrective level of 100.0%-1.0696. Thus, the growth process may continue today towards the next Fibonacci level at 76.4% (1.0764). The ascending trend channel characterizes the current sentiment of traders as bullish, but I remind you that the bearish trend persists. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the corridor will favor the US currency and resume the decline of the euro. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave (from April 2), while the new upward wave is still too weak to break the last peak from April 9. Thus, we are dealing with a bearish trend, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave needs to break the peak of the previous wave (from April 9). Alternatively, the next downward wave should fail to break the last low from April 16. Until then, the bears will maintain the advantage.The information background on Wednesday needed to be more formal for traders. The report on durable goods orders in the US showed an increase of 2.6% in March against market expectations of +2.5%. Orders excluding transportation increased by 0.2% against forecasts of +0.3%. Orders excluding defense increased by 0.2% against market expectations of +0.2%. Thus, all three reports, which could prompt traders to trade more actively, had little impact on their sentiment. Today, we await the US GDP report for the first quarter, which may suffer the same fate as yesterday's publications. On the 4-hour chart, the pair declined to the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 and rebounded from it after forming two bullish divergences on the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator falling below 20. Thus, a reversal in favor of the European currency occurred, and the growth process towards the corrective level of 38.2%-1.0765 began. There are no new emerging divergences observed for any indicator. Consolidation of the pair's rate below the level of 1.0644 will allow for the resumption of the decline towards the next Fibonacci level at 0.0%–1.0450.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:In the last reporting week, speculators opened 3493 long contracts and 23992 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains bullish but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 179,000, while short contracts amount to 167,000. The situation will continue to change in favor of bears. In the second column, we see that the number of short positions increased from 92,000 to 167,000 over the last 3 months. Over the same period, the number of long positions decreased from 211,000 to 179,000. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need strong information to resume the bullish trend. However, the information background has only been supporting bears lately. The European currency could have lost much more ground in recent weeks.News Calendar for the US and EU:US - Change in GDP for the first quarter (12:30 UTC).US - Number of initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).On April 25, the economic events calendar contains two entries, one of which may be considered significant. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment today may be moderate in strength, but only in the second half of the day.Forecast for EUR/USD and Trader Advice:Sales of the pair are possible today on an hourly chart consolidation below the ascending corridor with a target of 1.0619. Purchases of the euro were possible on a close above the level of 1.0696 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.0764, but bulls are currently weak, so the upward movement may end soon. Caution should be exercised with purchases.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 25th. Bulls take advantage of weak US statistics

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:36 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2464) on Wednesday, but the downward process was short-lived. Bears retreated from the market again, and the British pound returned to the level of 1.2464. Holding the pair's rate above this level increases the likelihood of continued growth towards the next level at 1.2517. A new rebound from the level of 1.2464 will once again allow for some decline in the British pound. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, and the new upward wave has yet to come close to the last peak from April 9. Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains bearish, and there are no signs of its completion at the moment. The first sign of bulls transitioning to an offensive could be a breakthrough of the peak on April 9, but bulls need to cover a distance of about 280 points to reach the zone of 1.2705–1.2715. It is unlikely that we should expect a trend change to bullish in the coming days. A new downward wave, if weak and does not break the low from April 22, could also indicate a trend change.On Wednesday, the information background was positive for the dollar, but traders considered it insufficiently positive to start buying the dollar again. Reports on durable goods orders turned out to be above expectations, but bears practically did not attack during the day. Today's GDP report for the US should be above the forecast of +2.5% q/q for bears to take the offensive. Despite the weakness of bears in recent days, the bearish trend persists. Market expectations for the interest rates of the Bank of England and the Fed in 2024 still indicate the hawkish sentiment of the latter. The FOMC may start tapering its QE only towards the end of the year, which could support the dollar for another 5–6 months. On the 4-hour chart, the pair made a reversal in favor of the British pound and returned to the level of 1.2450. A rebound in quotes from this level will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the decline towards the corrective level of 50.0%-1.2289. The downward trend channel still characterizes the current sentiment of traders as bearish. Holding the pair's rate above the level of 1.2450 will allow for further growth of the British pound towards the upper trend line of the trend channel.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:The sentiment in the "non-commercial" trader category for the last reporting week became less bullish. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 8200 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 11433 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains bullish but has been weakening in recent weeks. The gap between the number of long and short contracts is almost non-existent now: 72,000 versus 63,000.There are prospects for the British pound to decline. Over the past 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 62,000 to 72,000, while the number of short positions has increased from 47,000 to 63,000. This explains the relatively weak decline of the British pound. Over time, bulls will start to unload buy positions or increase sell positions, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. Bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete reluctance to transition to an offensive in recent months, but inflation reports in the US and UK could give them new strength.News Calendar for the US and UK:US - Change in GDP for the first quarter (12:30 UTC).US - Number of initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC).On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only two entries in the US, one of which needs to be of more significance. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be of moderate strength.Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:Sales of the British pound are possible today on an hourly chart rebound from the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2363–1.2370. Purchases of the pair were possible on a rebound from the level of 1.2300 with a target of 1.2363 and on consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.2363–1.2370 with a target of 1.2464. All targets have been reached. New purchases are possible on a consolidation above the level of 1.2464 with a target of 1.2517.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair on April 25, 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:27 am

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded fairly calmly on Wednesday. Volatility has increased in recent days, which is encouraging because it makes it possible to trade and expect decent profits, at least on lower timeframes. Over the past few weeks, the pound has even formed a semblance of a downward trend, which is also encouraging after a 4-month flat period. The only question is how long the decline of the British currency will actually last.The 4-month flat was not accidental. It eloquently tells us that someone among the market makers strongly opposed the pound falling against the dollar. We do not believe that the British currency showed staggering resistance out of nowhere. It has been well-known in recent months that the first easing of the Fed's policy will happen closer to the end of the year. Or next year. Therefore, the British pound is clearly too high against the US dollar. The market anticipated unverified information. If the Fed, as the market expected, had started easing in March, everything would have been logical. But now that won't happen, and the Bank of England, in the meantime, may begin to lower its rate as early as this summer.Reuters conducted a survey among analysts and economists about when the Bank of England will first lower its rate. Half of the respondents answered June, while the other half said the third quarter. Thus, if economists are correct this time, the Bank of England may start easing its monetary policy before the American regulator. At the beginning of the year, expectations were the opposite. However, current inflation indicators show that such an option is indeed possible.British inflation has already dropped to almost 3%, although initially it was several percentage points higher than the American. Of course, this does not mean that the consumer price index in the UK will continue to slow down so quickly. But at the same time, we must acknowledge the fact: the Bank of England is now closer to easing than the Fed. Naturally, this factor (like many others not yet worked out by the market) should put pressure on the GBP/USD pair. However, we have long been saying that the British pound is too overbought.I would like to separately note yesterday's report on durable goods orders in the US, as it is quite an important report in the overall statistics package. Overall, this report turned out to be stronger than forecasts, which prompted a slight strengthening of the American currency. But now the market has entered a correction stage, so in the next few days, we may see a continuation of the rise of the British currency. However, any consolidation of the price below the moving average should and can be used to open short positions, as corrections can be very weak. The triple overbought condition of the CCI indicator speaks in favor of the pound now. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 83 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." Therefore, on Thursday, April 25, we expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.2349 and 1.2513. The senior channel of linear regression is directed downward, signalling a downward trend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold zone three times recently, which triggered a surge in the British currency. However, this should only be a retracement or correction.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.2390S2 – 1.2329S3 – 1.2268Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.2451R2 – 1.2512R3 – 1.2573Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD pair has completed its flat on the 24-hour TF, and this is the most important thing right now. We still expect movement only to the south, and now that the level of 1.2500 has been overcome, one can consider selling the pair with targets at 1.2329 and 1.2268. Buying the British pound under conditions of price exiting the sideways channel through the lower boundary is not relevant. The pair may rebound upwards, as the CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone three times, but we do not consider it advisable to work out this correction.Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means that the trend is currently strong.Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the EUR/USD pair on April 25th. The dollar may start to get cheaper at the end of the year, after the arrival

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:19 am

The EUR/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements on Wednesday. Business activity indices in the European Union and the United States provoked a significant dollar decline days earlier, although we did not expect such a strong market reaction. However, this "strong reaction" amounted to a total of 73 points of volatility for the pair, which is not too much. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of daily fluctuations in the range of 40–50 points, even such a movement seemed impressive.We still expect the strengthening of the American currency against any fundamental and macroeconomic background. Yesterday, the price closed above the moving average line, and now, a corrective uptrend may continue for some time. However, this correction does not negate the presence of a global downward trend on the 24-hour TF (timeframe). It does not negate the fact that the market has overestimated the Fed's ability to lower rates in 2024. It does not negate the fact that the ECB will be the first to lower rates, not the Fed. However, one should not expect the dollar to rise indefinitely either. We believe that, minimally, the EUR/USD pair should fall to the level of 1.0450. In reality, there will likely be a decline to the range of 1.00–1.02, where the decline of the European currency may be complete.Yesterday, it became known that if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States, he intends to deliberately work on weakening the American currency. It is worth recalling the details of Trump's previous term. Four years ago, the former US president repeatedly stated that he did not need a strong dollar. Trump's associates believe that American exports need to be made more competitive. It is also worth noting that during Trump's first presidential term, the dollar hardly weakened. However, it did not rise either. If Trump becomes president at the end of the year, a global trend towards the weakening of the American currency can be expected.It is at the end of the year that the Fed may begin to soften its monetary policy, so immediately, two global factors will indicate a decline in the American currency. Therefore, traders who wanted to know and understand when the dollar might start a new global downward spiral have now received an answer to their question. Dollar declines can be expected in the fourth quarter of this year. By that time, the targets in the range of 1.00–1.02 may already have been achieved, so the downward trend will be considered completed.However, at the moment, the downward trend is not complete, and when the Fed will start lowering rates is not certain. After all, we and other analysts are now talking about the end of the year as a period when the Fed's rate will definitely start to decrease. But in reality, everything may be different. For example, in January, the market was confident that the first easing would occur in March. As we can see, nothing like that happened. It won't happen even in June, so talking now about the first easing in December (for example) is like fortune-telling. If inflation in the United States does not slow down, we will not see any easing of monetary policy even in December. In this case, the dollar will have additional reasons to rise, but we still believe that by the end of the year, the Fed will manage to solve the problem of excessive price pressure. The average volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of April 25 is 52 points and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0634 and 1.0738 on Thursday. The senior channel of linear regression has turned downward, indicating a global downward trend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold zone, but we expect only a small upward retracement, which may already be completed.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.0681S2 – 1.0620S3 – 1.0559Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.0742R2 – 1.0803R3 – 1.0864Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has resumed and maintained a downward trend, as we expected. The European currency should continue to decline in almost any case, so we continue to consider sales with targets at 1.0602 and 1.0559. Buying is considered impractical even if the price is above the moving average line (as it is now). The fundamental background at this time is such that one can expect growth only from the dollar. Corrections are possible on technical grounds, but trading downwards now is the most appropriate strategy.Explanations for the illustrations: Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it means that the trend is currently strong.Moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro rises after German consumer confidence improves

Apr 25, 2024 | 02:15 am

The euro has edged higher on Thursday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0726, up 0.25%. German consumer confidence hits two-year high Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate index improved in April and again in the May forecast, as the German consumer is showing signs of optimism. The index improved to a revised -27.3 in […]

USD/JPY Analysis: Concerns Regarding the BoJ and Long Term Apex Highs - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:29 am

The heights in value now being traded in the USD/JPY are touching levels not seen since May of 1990.

USD/PKR Analysis: Very Controlled and Mostly Out of Speculative Step - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:25 am

USD/PKR value as of this morning is fractionally higher than yesterday’s apex values

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:25 am

Yesterday, the S&P 500 ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 is trading near a key resistance level at 5104 where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the relief rally found some resistance around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level where we have also the red 21 moving average for confluence. These two levels will be the entry points for the sellers as a break above them should trigger an even stronger rally and invalidate the bearish setup. There’s not much else we can glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor support zone around the 5042 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If the price pulls back to the zone, the buyers will look to buy the dip as they will have a better risk to reward setup to target new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to confirm a reversal and increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Forex forecast 04/25/2024: EUR/USD, USDX, Gold and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 25, 2024 | 01:14 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:12 Totay's key events: ECB Economic Bulletin, GDP, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, German Buba Mauderer Speaks, Fed's Balance Sheet 02:18 EUR/USD 04:19 USDX 07:41 GOLD 09:26 BTC/USDUseful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Pressure Yen at 155 - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:50 am

The US dollar rallied significantly during the early hours on Wednesday, but then stalled here at the ¥155 level.

USD/SGD Forecast: Greenback Consolidating into a Bullish Flag Against Sing Dollar - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:40 am

The US dollar has initially fallen against the Singapore dollar during the trading session on Wednesday but continues to see plenty of support near the 1.36 level.

EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 25

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:35 am

Overview of trading and tips on EUR/USDThe price test of 1.0704 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential, especially since the test happened towards the end of the US session. For this reason, I did not enter the market. The absence of US data made it possible for the EUR/USD bulls to continue the upward movement after fairly reasonable indicators from Germany's IFO and economic expectations, which was the focus. Today, the euro may continue to rise during the European session, but this will require a strong report on Germany's leading consumer climate index, as well as a good economic bulletin from the European Central Bank. However, market participants will focus on the US economic data in the afternoon, so don't rush to buy the euro at current highs. We'll discuss the reports in the afternoon forecast. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No 1. Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the area around 1.0726 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0765. At the level of 1.0765, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today only after good Eurozone data, in continuation of yesterday's trend. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0702 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0726 and 1.0765.Sell signalsScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0702 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0656, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high and weak data from Germany. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0726 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0702 and 1.0656.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 25

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:35 am

Overview of trading and tips on GBP/USDThe price test of 1.2451 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential, especially in the absence of US data. Traders bought the pound in the morning, completely ignoring the report on the balance of industrial orders, but the pair did not sharply rise. It is possible that the pound will continue to correct higher today, however, this would require good UK retail sales data, and very weak US reports, which we will discuss in the afternoon forecast. Meanwhile, I will move towards the development of a new upward trend and buy on pullbacks. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the area around 1.2488 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2552 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2552, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can only count on the pound's growth today after good UK data, in continuation of the upward correction. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2457 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2488 and 1.2552.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after testing the level of 1.2457 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2404, where I am going to close short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound after the pair fails to consolidate near the local high and if the UK releases weak data. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2488 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2457 and 1.2404.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 25

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:35 am

Overview of trading and tips on USD/JPYThe price test of 154.98 at the beginning of the US session occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just starting to move up from the zero mark, which confirmed the entry point to buy the dollar in continuation of the upward trend. Although the bulls struggled with the upward movement, they still managed to reach new yearly highs. As a result, the bulls became active in today's Asian session. Traders may be banking on a strong US economy, as reports are set for release later today, and these market participants are willing to buy even at these "expensive" highs. However, the GDP report could change everything, so I advise you to be cautious or refrain from being active when buying the US dollar in the morning. It's better to look for reversals or buy on corrections, which are bound to occur, as the current movement could easily become a target for the Bank of Japan with its currency interventions. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 155.76 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 156.16 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 156.16, I'm going to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can count on USD/JPY's growth today based on the trend after breaking through the daily high. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.49 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.76 and 156.16.Sell signalsScenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing the level of 155.49 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the price. The key target for sellers will be 155.12, where I am going to exit short positions and also immediately open long ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return after an unsuccessful breakout of the daily high and active actions by the central bank. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 155.76 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downwards market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.49 and 155.12.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Silver Forecast: Continues to Show Signs of Support - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:34 am

Silver went back and forth during the trading session on Wednesday.

CHF/JPY Forecast: Battle of the Funding Currencies Continues - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:30 am

CHF and JPY battle as top Forex funding currencies, both weak.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro Continues to Threaten a Move Higher Against Pound - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:25 am

We have recently seen a breakout and now we are looking at a retest.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Launches Against Canadian Dollar - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:20 am

The US dollar has rallied significantly during the trading session on Wednesday against the Canadian dollar, as we have seen the 1.3650 level offer support.

Bitcoin Forecast: Continues to Sit Still on Wednesday - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:12 am

Bitcoin initially did rally a little bit during the trading session on Wednesday.

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:11 am

Gold eventually erased the gains from the geopolitical events between Israel and Iran and found support around a key trendline. The price started to consolidate as the market awaits some new catalyst to push it in either direction. This week has been pretty empty on the data front and there was no Fedspeak as the FOMC is in the blackout period. We did get the latest US PMIs though and they missed expectations across the board with some worrying commentary around the labour market. Interestingly, it didn’t spark a rally in Gold, so the market might want to see some more data before trusting the PMIs. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold eventually pulled back into the key trendline where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 2150 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got stuck in some consolidation around the trendline with a strong resistance around the 2330 level where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. The sellers are clearly stepping in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a continuation of the downward trend. The buyers will need to break above the resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the tight range between the 2310 support and the 2330 resistance. We can also see that we have a downward trendline adding confluence to the resistance zone. A breakout to the upside will be significant and will likely trigger a stronger bullish move. Conversely, a breakout to the downside should see the bearish momentum increasing and pushing the market into the next support around the 2150 level. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost.See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/ZAR Forecast: US Dollar Continues to Pressure Resistance Against South African Rand - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:10 am

The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to threaten a major resistance barrier in the form of 19.25 ZAR.

GBP/JPY Forex Signal: Dragon Looks Ready to Roar - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:04 am

The British pound initially pulled back against the Japanese yen during early hours on Wednesday, as we continued to threaten a major breakout.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:01 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.91; (P) 155.15; (R1) 155.58; More… USD/JPY’s rally accelerates today and breaks through 155.20 fibonacci level. There is no sign of topping yet. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Sustained trading above 155.20 will pave the way 100% projection of 140.25 to 150.87 from 146.47 at 157.09. For now, […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Ethereum Forecast: Showing Signs of Exhaustion - 25 April 2024

Apr 25, 2024 | 00:00 am

Ethereum markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but it appears that we continue to see a bit of noise above.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:57 pm

.Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0680; (P) 1.0697; (R1) 1.0716; More… Immediate focus is now on 1.0723 support turned resistance. Rejection from there, followed by break of 1.0677 minor support, will retain near term bearishness. Retest of 1.0601 low would be seen next. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.0723 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 25

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:56 pm

EUR/USDHigher TimeframesYesterday, volume and volatility remained low. Nevertheless, the market maintained its position above the daily short-term trend. As a result, the main conclusions and expectations remain unchanged. For bulls, the nearest resistances around 1.0732-56 (daily and weekly Fibonacci Kijun levels) may still serve as reference points, while bears can look to the daily short-term trend (1.0658) and the monthly Fibonacci Kijun (1.0611).H4 – H1On the lower timeframes, the pair is still going through a correction. In case the price breaks out of it, which requires testing yesterday's high (1.0715), resistance to bullish movement may come from the classical Pivot levels R1 (1.0716) - R2 (1.0734) - R3 (1.0752). As the pair continues to go through a correction, key levels gain importance - the central Pivot level (1.0698) and the weekly long-term trend (1.0670). A breakout and a trend reversal will change the current balance of power and strengthen the bears. Today, additional intraday supports can be found at 1.0662 - 1.0644 (classic Pivot levels).***GBP/USDHigher TimeframesThe bullish correction brought the pair to test the nearest resistance area, which combines monthly and weekly levels (1.2464-88). The outcome will determine possible scenarios. In the event of a breakthrough, the bulls will have new prospects, while in case of a rebound, the focus will return to the area around 1.2395 (the final level of the weekly Ichimoku cross + the daily short-term trend).H4 – H1The pair has updated the previous high and continues to strive for further upward movement. On the lower timeframes, the classic Pivot levels serve as reference points for continuing the ascent (1.2478 - 1.2497 - 1.2525). If the opponent grabs the initiative, then today, corrective targets can be found at 1.2450 (the central Pivot level of the day) and 1.2412 (the weekly long-term trend). Further intraday support levels may come from the classical Pivot levels S2 (1.2403) and S3 (1.2384).***The technical analysis of the situation uses:Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levelsLower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:53 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… Near term outlook in GBP/USD remains bearish as long as 1.2538 support turned resistance. holds. Break of 1.2421 minor support will argue that rebound from 1.2298 has completed and bring retest of this low. However, decisive break of 1.2538 will bring stronger rally to 55 D […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:50 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9121; (P) 0.9138; (R1) 0.9167; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more sideway trading could be seen. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6474; (P) 0.6502; (R1) 0.6526; More… Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6527) will argue that fall from 0.6870 has completed, and bring further rally to 0.6643 resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.6440 minor support will […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:44 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3662; (P) 1.3696; (R1) 1.3736; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral with focus on 1.3660 support. Strong rebound from current level will retain near term bullishness. Break of 1.3748 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3845 resistance. However, sustained break of 1.3660 will bring deeper […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:40 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9763; (P) 0.9778; (R1) 0.9808; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains on the upside for retesting 0.9847 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger rally from 0.9252 high. On the downside, below 0.9708 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first. In the bigger picture, while 55 D EMA (now at […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:37 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8579; (P) 0.8589; (R1) 0.8595; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP stays neutral at this point. On the upside, decisive break of medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8649) will solidify the bullish case of trend reversal, and target 0.8764 resistance next. However, sustained break of 55 4H EMA (now at 0.8580) […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:35 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6408; (P) 1.6467; (R1) 1.6525; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 1.6368 support will revive that case that rebound from 1.6127 has completed at 1.6742. Fall from there is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.7062. Deeper decline would […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:33 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 192.75; (P) 193.20; (R1) 194.07; More.. GBP/JPY’s up trend resumed and reaches as high as 193.62 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 195.86 long term resistance, and then 198.89 projection level. On the downside, below 192.93 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Recovery Has a Room to Run - 25 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:31 pm

The GBP/USD pair has staged a strong comeback from its lowest point this week to a high of 1.2465, its highest swing since Thursday last week.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Chart Pattern Points to a Bearish Breakout - 25 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 23:07 pm

The EUR/USD pair wavered on Thursday morning ahead of the crucial US GDP and inflation numbers.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Yesterday, the Russell 2000 ended the day negative as the relief rally reached some key resistance levels. The first part of the week has been pretty empty on the data front, and we hadn’t any Fedspeak due to the blackout period. This has led to a relief rally which was exacerbated by weaker US PMIs as the market interpreted them as good news for inflation, although there were some worrying commentary on the labour market side. Beginning today, we will have many top tier economic data ahead as the new month comes with new reports. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 eventually pulled back into the key resistance zone around the 2020 level. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the zone to position for a break below the 1920 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new cycle high. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got rejected from the downward trendline where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. This should give the sellers even more conviction to pile in around these level with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above the trendline to invalidate the bearish setup and turn the trend around. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the price breaking out of the descending wedge and running into the trendline. The sellers will also need to watch out for a spike above the trendline today as we get some market moving US data. If the price were to eventually leave behind a fakeout, that would be an even stronger signal for a drop into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Recovery Hits a Key Resistance - 25 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:56 pm

Bitcoin pulled back in the overnight session as the recent recovery faded.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: More Upside Ahead of US PCE Data - 25 April 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:46 pm

The AUD/USD pair retreated slightly as traders refocused on the upcoming US GDP and PCE economic numbers.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:32 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 165.67; (P) 165.95; (R1) 166.50; More… EUR/JPY’s up trend continues to as high as 166.78 so far. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 168.72 projection level next. On the downside, below 165.41 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline. In the bigger picture, […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 25. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 24, 2024 | 22:00 pm

Analyzing Wednesday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair continued to correct higher with low volatility. The market had no strong reason to buy the pound on Wednesday. The US report for durable goods was slightly better than forecasts. However, the pair is still going through a corrective phase, so the pound may continue to appreciate for some time. The main thing is to avoid returning to square one, with the pair finding itself within the sideways channel of 1.25-1.28.We believe that the macroeconomic and fundamental background is extremely weak for the British currency. We also believe that the pound is overbought and unreasonably expensive. However, as we can see, the market is not in a rush to sell. Therefore, the current bullish correction is quite logical, but the absence of a new decline raises doubts and questions again.GBP/USD on 5M chart Three trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe. The pair rebounded from the level of 1.2457 thrice. In the first two cases, the pair fell by about 20 pips after each rebound. Therefore, there could not have been any loss on the two short positions, as stop-loss orders should have been placed. However, it was not possible to make profit from these signals either. The signals were quite accurate and clear, but there was no volatility, so there were no movements on Wednesday.Trading tips on Thursday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has excellent prospects for forming a downward trend, but is currently going through a correction. After surpassing the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar much more than the British pound. Therefore, we only expect downward movement from the pair. Today, novice traders can look for new sell signals around the level of 1.2457. The market is not in a rush to sell, but the pound is gradually depreciating over time, which is a good sign. Today, the US GDP report could exert pressure on the dollar. But if the report shows good values, then the dollar should recover its previous losses.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. There are no significant events scheduled in the UK, while the US will release an important GDP report, and a secondary report on orders for durable goods. Take note that even the GDP report may not affect volatility if its value coincides with forecasts.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 25. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:59 pm

Analyzing Wednesday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart On Wednesday, EUR/USD went through low volatility and maintained a weak upward trend as indicated by the ascending channel. Throughout the day, traders could only focus on the US report on durable goods orders; however, the value of this indicator and its derivatives almost coincided with experts' forecasts. Therefore, the market had nothing to react to—it anticipated and worked out the report in advance.Therefore, the euro continues to correct higher. There is nothing strange about this —the downward trend persists, and from time to time, we should expect upward retracements. The question is when this movement will end and when the main trend will resume. This will be determined by the price consolidating below the ascending channel. Since the price is currently near the upper line, we can expect it to fall to the lower line in the coming days.EUR/USD on 5M chart Only one trading signal was generated on the 5-minute timeframe. The price bounced off the level of 1.0678, afterwards it managed to move up by about 15 pips. Novice traders could gain profit if they manually closed the trade since no other signals were formed. Volatility was very low, so a 15-pip profit is still a good result.Trading tips on Thursday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists, but the EUR/USD pair is currently correcting higher. We believe that the euro should fall further, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. However, at the moment, the market is likely taking a break before it starts a new downward movement.Today, the pair may fall as it is currently near the upper boundary of the channel. The only thing that could hinder it is the US GDP report, which will be released at the beginning of the US session. If this report turns out to be weak, the euro may rise further, but its medium-term prospects will not change.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611, 1.0678, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. On Thursday, there are no significant events scheduled in the EU. Market participants will focus on the US GDP report. The economy is expected to grow by 2.5%. Any value above this will exert pressure on the pair. Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of EUR/USD Main Currency Pairs,Thursday April 25 2024.

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:32 pm

On the 4 hour chart of EUR/USD main currency pairs,Fiber seems corrected strong and the weakness condition currently seems trying to break above the level 1,0715. If this level managed to break above, then the next level to be aimed is 1,0757. But please be careful because of the appearance of the Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern followed by the appearance of deviation between EUR/USD price movement with Stochastic Oscillator indicator which formed Double Top where at the same time suddenly if the strengthening correction has the downward momentum so that if the currency pairs returns to the initial bias, especially if it breaks below the level 1,0679, then the strengthening correction that has been described before will become invalid and will cancel itself.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of S&P 500 Index, Thursday April 25 2024.

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:32 pm

With the appearance of deviation between S&P 500 index price movement with Stochastic oscillator on the 4 hour chart, then in the near future, the index has the potential to appreciate upward to the level 5083,48. If this level successfully broken above, then the strengthening will still continue to the level 5104,66 as the main target and if the momentum as well as the volatility is supporting enough, then the level of 5161,94 will be the next target to be aimed of. But if on the way to those levels suddenly there is a quite significant weakness correction, especially if going down below the level 4968,85, then the strengthening scenario that has been described before will become invalid and will cancel itself.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for April 25-27, 2024: buy above $63.600 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:20 pm

Bitcoin is trading around 64,249, bouncing off the bottom of the uptrend channel forming since April 18 and below the 21 SMA and 200 EMA, showing signs of exhaustion. On the H4 chart, we can see that Bitcoin was consolidating above $65,600 but failed to continue its uptrend. It began a strong technical correction below the 200 EMA.If Bitcoin resumes its bullish cycle in the next few hours and consolidates above 63,600, it is expected to reach 6/8 of Murray at 68,750 and finally, 7/8 of Murray located at 71,875 in the next few days. If the bearish pressure continues, Bitcoin breaks down, and consolidates below $63,000, we expect it to reach 3/8 Murray at 59,375. Its price could eventually reach the psychological level of $50,000.In case Bitcoin consolidates above the 21 SMA, the 200 EMA, and 5/8 Murray, this could change the outlook and would be positive for BTC. Above this area, the bulls will grasp the opportunity and Bitcoin could reach the psychological level of $70,000.If Bitcoin fails to break and consolidate above this area, the bearish cycle could resume and in the short term, it could reach $60,000 and even 55,550.Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy Bitcoin above 63,600, with targets at 65,625 and 68,750. The Eagle indicator is reaching an overbought zone, but a technical rebound could occur in the next few hours.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gfk Group Consumer Confidence Survey. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the data on GfK Group Consumer Confidence for May are due in Germany. The indicator measures the degree of confidence in the strength of the economy and is a leading indicator for consumer spending. The negative dynamics is expected to slow down from -27.4 points to -25.9 points, which will still continue to put pressure on the euro exchange rate. Read more

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 25, 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 19:56 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, the euro stalled at the signal-intermediate level of 1.0696 (February 14 low) and even closed above it with a daily candle. The Marlin oscillator's signal line crossed above the linear resistance and consolidated. Now, there are two important target levels: 1.0724 and 1.0757.From a technical standpoint, the level of 1.0757 is intermediate before an attack on a more significant level at 1.0796, but the market may end the correction and turn around from any strong level. Moreover, upon reaching the level of 1.0757, the Marlin oscillator may reach the boundary of the positive territory and turn downwards from it.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is causing concern – it continues to move sideways regardless of the price movements. Marlin going into negative territory could bring the price back into the range of 1.0636/56. If the price continues to rise at an accelerated pace, Marlin will exit the range and move upwards, and the price may reach the level of 1.0796.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for USD/JPY on April 25, 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 19:55 pm

USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair is heading towards the target level of 155.80, with "just a little" left to go. Closing above this level will open up the target along the line of the global price channel at 156.58. These are formal and weak signs of growth. They are not supported by the Marlin oscillator, which has been falling in a narrow channel for seven sessions.The main reason for the bearish price reversal could be tomorrow's Bank of Japan meeting, as investors are waiting for the "last warning". There are speculations that the BOJ may raise interest rates, especially considering recent statements by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and even his meeting with Janet Yellen, which may have served as a "final warning."On the 4-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has moved up from narrow consolidation at the zero line, and the price is rising above the indicator lines. The pair may reach the level of 155.80.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 25, 2024

Apr 24, 2024 | 19:55 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the British pound stayed above the target level of 1.2427 and above the Fibonacci corrective level of 23.6%. The Marlin oscillator is rising, and if the April 15-18 highs do not offer serious resistance, the price may rise to the intermediate level of 1.2525 – up to the corrective level of 38.2%. However, there is one troubling factor in this plan – trading volumes are decreasing every day, which means that the correction can end at any moment, regardless of record levels. All it takes is a signal.Today, the US GDP report could provide the signal. The forecast is 2.5%. The market often has a delayed reaction to the US GDP report, around 1-5 days, either to assess other data or to wait for tensions to ease among mid-level players. On Friday, a report on personal income/expenditure will be released and the Bank of Japan meeting will also take place. On this day, the Japanese central bank may issue a final warning to speculators who are overly engaged in playing against the yen.On the 4-hour chart, we see a hint of such a development – divergence between price and the Marlin oscillator. If the price continues to rise, which is very likely as it has consolidated above both indicator lines, then the divergence will turn into regular growth. And the British currency's rise is quite risky.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPUSD ping pongs between technical levels

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:43 am

In the morning kickstart video, I spoke to the support near the 200 hour MA and the swing area, and if that level held, the need to get and stay above the 38.2% of the April trading range. Well those levels have defined the range in the US session (give or take a couple pips on support and resistance targets. The price is ping ponging. The good news is that with support holding and resistance doing its thing, it increases each extremes importance. That is, when the next shove comes (higher or lower), there should be momentum in the direction of the break. So we can lament the ups and downs, but take solace in the hopes that the next break leads to a run. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Canadian dollar dips as retail sales fall

Apr 24, 2024 | 11:08 am

The Canadian dollar is in negative territory on Wednesday after a five-day winning streak in which it gained 1.1%. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3703, up 0.29%. Canada’s retail sales down in February Canadian consumers are holding tight on the purse strings as spending has been weak in the first quarter. […]

S&P index gives up gains. Down on the day.

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:40 am

The S&P index has given up its gains and traded in negative territory. At session highs the price change was up 18.92 points. The low price just reached -14.78 points on a day. At session lows, the price tested a swing level going back to March and last week near 5056.92. Support buyers came in near that level on the first test. If the level can hold support, a rotation back to the upside would be anticipated.On the top side, the falling 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) is near the 50% midpoint of the corrective move to the downside near 5108. Going forward, getting back above that moving average and midpoint level is needed to give the buyers more confidence.On the downside breaking below the swing level would have traders targeting the 50-hour moving average (black moving average line) at 5035.12. Moving below that increases the bearish bias with a retest of the low price from last Friday as the next target.The NASDAQ index is holding onto gains of a around 29 points or 0.18%. The Russell 2000 is lower by -12.46 points or -0.62%. Yields are higher today which is putting a damper on the small-cap sector. 2-year yield 4.941%, +3.6 basis points5-year yield 4.672%, +5.1 basis points10 year 4.658%, +6.0 basis points30 year 4.788%, +6.5 basis points.At 1 PM ET, the U.S. Treasury will auction off five-year notes. Yesterday the treasury auctioned off a record amount of two-year notes with the demand (not stellar but good). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Higher Australian CPI sent the AUDUSD higher, but the 200-day MA stalled the rally.

Apr 24, 2024 | 08:19 am

The AUDUSD pushed to the upside today after higher than expected CPI data, put the kabosh on a rate cut soon. However, after running toward the 200-day MA and 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart near 0.6330, the buyers turned to sellers and has corrected the gains. The subsequent fall has taken the price down toward a swing area between 0.64769 and 0.64864. The low price stalled just ahead of the high of that swing area. If that level can hold support, and the price can get back above its 50% midpoint of the April trading range and 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.6521, the buyers can resume their run to - and potentially through - the 200 day moving average. The above video outlines the key levels and explains the risks and the targets going forward. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY climbs above 155.00 again as buyers remain in control

Apr 24, 2024 | 07:56 am

The USDJPY is taking another run above the 155.00 level. The first break reached up to 155.164, but then rotated quiicly to 154.76 minutes later. The price has chopped back higher and is now above the 155.00 level again as buyers continue to push. The high just reached 155.10.The good news for the buyer is although the move higher is slow and choppy, the corrections lower have been able to hold support near the rising 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart above). Those support bounces help to increase the moving average's importance going forward. Staying above the 100 hour MA and the buyers are more in control. Putting it another way, the sellers after the move to the upside have to prove that they can take back control. Not being able to get below the 100-day moving average (and then the 200-hour moving average currently at 154.413) is NOT taking back control. Watch the 100-hour MA as a short-term barometer for the USDJPY pair. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF buyers try to keep the short term bias in their favor.

Apr 24, 2024 | 07:24 am

The USDCHF pushed higher earlier in the day, and extended above the prior high from April 15 at 0.91514, but only to a NEW high of 0.91525 before rotating back to the downside.The fall took the priCe back toward its rising 200 hour moving average at 0.9116 and its 100 hour moving average at 0.91109, but the price could not move below those levels and has since rotated back toward 0.9130.Are the buyers trying to keep that short-term bias in their favor? Staying above those hourly moving averages does just that. However, getting above the 0.9152 area is still needed to break the pair to the upside and give the buyers more confidence. If done, traders would target the 50% of the range since the October 2022 high. That level comes in at 0.92395. That high also corresponds roughly with the high price from October 2023.So buyers are making a play despite the corrective move lower today. Can the momentum increase to the upside or will the ceiling near 0.9252 keep the battle going? This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCAD moves higher helped by fundamental data/technical bounce.

Apr 24, 2024 | 06:37 am

The Canada retail sales came in a bit weaker than expectations. Meanwhile, US durable goods orders showed strength. That combination helped to push up the USDCAD (higher USD/lower CAD). Earlier, a support swing area stalled the fall after yesterday's fall on the back of weaker US flash PMI data. The dip buyers against support were rewarded after the data help.In this video, I take a look at the USDCAD pair from a technical perspective, and outline the close risks and targets going forward. Be aware. Be prepared. FInd out about it, in the video above.... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 06:19 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2368; (P) 1.2414; (R1) 1.2495; More… No change in GBP/USD’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. While recovery from 1.2298 might extend higher, upside should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 1.2298 will resume the fall from 1.2892 to 1.2036 support next. In the bigger picture, price […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 06:17 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9093; (P) 0.9113; (R1) 0.9138; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will turn bias to the downside for 55 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 06:15 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.63; (P) 154.76; (R1) 154.95; More… Outlook in USD/JPY is unchanged and intraday bias remains mildly on the upside for further rally. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break of 153.58 support […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for April 24 with a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD

Apr 24, 2024 | 06:12 am

In the kickstart video, I take a second look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. For the EURUSD, it extends above its 38.2% retracement of the April trading range in the early hours of the Asian session, but could not sustain momentum and rotated to the downside. That retracement level comes at 1.0709 and would need to be breached to give the buyers more confidence.The USDJPY did extend above the 155.00 level prior to the strong durable goods orders, but after reaching 155.16, quickly reversed back lower. It is currently trading at 154.93 back below the 155 level. If the price can extend above the 155 level and stay above that level there could be additional probing on the second break. Keeping markets contained is the Bank of Japan interest rate decision which will be announced on Friday.The GBPUSD like the EURUSD extended briefly above its 38.2% retracement of the April trading range at 1.2455, but like the EURUSD rotated back to the downside. The price trading above and below its 200-hour moving average in the European session at 1.2428. There is a swing area between 1.2403 and 1.24257 which is also providing some support, and will be a barometer for buyers and sellers going forward. Ultimately if the price is going to move higher, it needs to get and stay above the 38.2% retracement at 1.2455. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 06:09 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0656; (P) 1.0684; (R1) 1.0729; More… EUR/USD is still bounded in range trading above 1.0601 and intraday bias remains neutral. Strong resistance should be seen from 1.0723 to complete the corrective rise from 1.0601. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD extends gains as inflation higher than expected

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:42 am

The Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6504, up 0.27%. The Australian dollar rose as high as 0.6529 (0.64%) after the Australian inflation release but has pared about half of those gains. Australia’s inflation dips less than forecast Australia’s inflation rate slowed less than expected in […]

Crude oil imports. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction is expected from the current 2.735M barrels to 1.700M barrels, supporting oil quotes. Read more

The AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:13 am

As the North American session begins, the AUD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is tilting to upside but if you look at the net changes - and the changes of the major currencies other than the AUD and CHF - they are all scrunched together with modest moves against each.In Australia, the quarterly inflation data came out and put the kabosh on hopes for a rate cut any time soon at least. Headline CPI:Quarterly increase of 1.0%, higher than the expected 0.8% and the previous 0.6%.Year-over-year (y/y) increase of 3.6%, slightly above the expected 3.5% and down from the previous 4.1%.Trimmed Mean CPI (a core measure):Quarterly increase of 1.0%, aligning with expectations but higher than the previous 0.8%.Year-over-year increase of 4.0%, above the expected 3.8% and slightly below the previous 4.2%.Weighted Median CPI (another core measure):Quarterly increase of 1.1%, surpassing the expected 0.9% and matching the previous 0.9%.Year-over-year increase of 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.1% and consistent with the previous 4.4%.Sector-specific Inflation:Services inflation at 4.3% y/y, the lowest since June 2022.Goods inflation at 3.1% y/y, the lowest since September 2022.The AUDUSD did move higher and tested the 200-day MA at 0.6528 before stalling (see chart below). It will take a move above those MAs to increase the bullish bias with the 100 day MA up at 0.65828 as the next major technical target:Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis, who was previously Assistant Governor (Economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia commented on the report and said:Inflation was a bit higher than expected in the March quarter. It is declining, but it has a way to go for the RBA to be confident of returning to the 2-3% target range on the desired timetable.We expect the Board to keep rates on hold in May, and have pushed out the date of the first rate cut to November this year, previously September.The USDJPY did continue its little-by-little move toward 155.00 level. The high price today extended to 154.963. On the downside, in that pair, the 100 hour MA at 154.66 is support (and moving higher). On Monday and Tuesday, the price did peek below that MA level but not by much on each break. There just isn't a lot of downside momentum. The next BOJ two-day policy meeting starts Thursday, and they will deliberate on the implications of the yen's significant depreciation on inflation, particularly in the context of recent economic policies including the end of the negative interest rate policy in March. Despite the recent fall of the yen by about 500 pips against the dollar since the last meeting, and more broadly by 20 yen over the past year, most analysts foresee no immediate adjustments to BOJ's monetary stance. The central bank's attention is fixed on core inflation and the responses of small businesses to rising costs, indicating a cautious approach toward future rate hikes, with the majority of market experts anticipating possible increases later in the year around September or October. The strength in the pair is indicative of the markets view.Takao Ochi of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, a senior member of the Lower House Financial Affairs Committee said that a move in USD/JPY towards 160 (or 170) could prod action from policymakers as they would deem that as being "excessive". It was thought that 155.00 would prompt the BOJ interest. With Meta and IBM still due to report after the close, the following companies did report this morning with more BEATs vs MISSes. Some 30% of the S&P500 report this week:Boeing Co (BA): BEATAdj. EPS: -$1.13 vs. -$1.76 expected (Beat)Revenue: $16.57 billion vs. $16.23 billion expected (Beat)CME Group Inc (CME): BEATAdj. EPS: $2.50 vs. $2.45 expected (Beat)Revenue: $1.50 billion vs. $1.48 billion expected (Beat)General Dynamics Corp (GD):MIXEDEPS: $2.88 vs. $2.93 expected (Miss)Revenue: $10.731 billion vs. $10.32 billion expected (Beat)Biogen Inc (BIIB). MIXEDAdj. EPS: $3.67 vs. $3.45 expected (Beat)Revenue: $2.29 billion vs. $2.31 billion expected (Miss)Humana Inc (HUM): BEATEPS: $7.23 vs. $6.12 expected (Beat)Revenue: $29.6 billion vs. $28.47 billion expected (Beat)Hasbro Inc (HAS): BEATEPS: $0.61 vs. $0.27 expected (Beat)Revenue: $0.75 billion vs. $0.74 billion expected (Beat)AT&T Inc (T): MIXEDAdj. EPS: $0.55 vs. $0.54 expected (Beat)Revenue: $30.03 billion vs. $30.54 billion expected (Miss)Otis Worldwide Corp (OTIS): MIXEDEPS: $0.88 vs. $0.87 expected (Beat)Revenue: $3.4 billion vs. $3.46 billion expected (Miss)Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO): MIXEDAdj. EPS: $5.11 vs. $4.71 expected (Beat)Revenue: $10.1 billion vs. $10.17 billion expected (Miss)Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT): BEATEPS: $1.53 vs. $1.42 expected (Beat)Revenue: $2.57 billion vs. $2.52 billion expected (Beat)Yesterday after the close Tesla MISSED on both the top and bottom lines, but the market fell in love with the idea of new more affordable models coming to market (and sooner than expected). The price is up 12.09% in pre-market trading. Visa and Texas Instrument also reported with Visa up 2.44% and Texas Instrument up 6.97% after beating. US major indices are trading mixed with Dow down marginally, the S&P and Nasdaq indices implying a higher open led by the Nasdaq index. Other key earnings to be released this week:Other key earnings this week:Wedsnesday after the close: Meta Platforms, IBM, Ford, Chipotle, ServiceNow, Lamb ResearchThursday: American Airlines, Caterpillar, Southwest, Bristol-Myers Squibb. After close Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Western Digital, T-Mobile, Gilead.Friday: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down -$0.33 or -0.41% at $83.02. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.30 Gold is trading down -$6.50 or -0.29% at $2314.95. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2300.41Silver is trading down -$0.20 or -0.74% at $27.08.. At this time yesterday, the price was at $26.94Bitcoin currently trades at $66,615. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,051In the premarket, the US major indices are trading mostly higher. The major indices are on a two day one streak this week.:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 8.31 points. Yesterday, the index rose 263.71 points or 0.69% at 38503.70.S&P futures are[…]

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:04 am

Crude Oil fell below the key $83 support zone last week as the geopolitical risk faded. In fact, Israel eventually retaliated against Iran last Friday, but the attack was limited, and Iran downplayed the airstrikes leading to a general de-escalation. On the macro side, higher yields and the retreat in rate cuts expectations led to some weakening in demand, which was also seen yesterday in the US PMIs commentary. Looking forward, if we start to get more weak data, the market might continue to fall with the next target being the $78 price region. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil broke below the key $83 support zone and the trendline and pulled back for a retest. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the red 21 moving average to position for a drop into the next major trendline around the $78 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the trendline to position for a rally into the $90 level. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline now which will act as resistance on the way up. This will add another layer of confluence for the sellers to pile in around these levels and position for a drop into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above it to start targeting new highs. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that if we were to fall from these levels, the sellers will need to break below the strong $81 support to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely step in at the support again to try another breakout to the upside. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Analysis: Stability Around Intervention Levels

Apr 24, 2024 | 05:01 am

Despite daily Japanese warnings about the imminent date of intervention in the Forex currency markets to prevent further collapse of the Japanese yen exchange rate

EUR/USD Analysis: Upside Retracement Gains Face Threat

Apr 24, 2024 | 04:52 am

Since the start of trading this week, the EUR/USD Euro to US Dollar price has been on an upward retracement path.

GBP/USD Analysis: Avoiding Further Collapse

Apr 24, 2024 | 04:33 am

Since yesterday's session, the British pound has been recovering against the euro and US dollar currencies, after data showed the strength of the economic recovery in April.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:52 am

GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI beating expectations and the Manufacturing PMI missing forecasts and slipping back into contraction. The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the board.The market expects the first rate cut in August.JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.GBPJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY fell once again into the lower bound of the channel where the buyers piled in to push the price back into the highs. The pair continues to get rejected from the 193.00 resistance and this led to a rangebound price action. The buyers will need to break through the level to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break below the lower bound of the channel to position for a drop into the 187.96 level. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the range between the 193.00 resistance and the 190.00 support. The market participants will likely continue to play the range by selling at resistance and buying at support until we get a catalyst to trigger a breakout on either side. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the latest push higher diverged with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for another reversal from the resistance into the support. The sellers should step in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the lower bound of the channel with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, should wait to buy around the support. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude the week with the BoJ Rate Decision, the Tokyo CPI and later in the day, the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Durable goods orders. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in the United States, March data on the volume of orders for durable goods with a service life of more than three years is due. The indicator is a leading indicator of industrial activity. The total volume of orders in March may adjust from 1.3% to 2.5%, and the core volume will be consolidated at 0.3%, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Retail sales. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), February data on retail sales will be presented in Canada. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods retailers sold based on samples of stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and affects gross domestic product (GDP). The rate may adjust from −0.3% to 0.1% in February, and the core value from 0.5% to 0.0%, supporting the Canadian dollar. Read more

Euro edges lower despite stronger German business confidence

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:19 am

The euro is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0685, down 0.16%. Germany shows signs of optimism Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index rose to 89.4 in April, up from a revised 87.9 in March and above the market estimate of 88.9. The index is still in negative territory (100 […]

Gold Analysis: Gold Faces Profit-Taking

Apr 24, 2024 | 03:12 am

XAUUSD gold price fell below the $2320 level per ounce on Wednesday, under the influence of declining demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold Technical: Is the bull run over after its worst daily decline in 2 years?

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:37 am

This is a follow-up analysis of our prior report, “Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain” published on 15 April 2024. Click here for a recap. The price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have shaped the mean reversion decline after a test on the US$2,420 intermediate resistance. It tumbled by -2.7% […]

EUR/USD Forecast: Rangebound and Tight

Apr 24, 2024 | 02:13 am

The EUR/USD was all over the place during the early hours on Tuesday as we continued to consolidate in general.

USD/CAD Analysis: Sentiment Getting Tested as Known Values Reemerge

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:50 am

The USD/CAD is near the 1.36775 mark as of this writing, this after the currency pair has managed to sustain lower increments attained in early trading this morning.

USD/JPY Forecast: Dips are Opportunities

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:50 am

The US dollar continues to squeeze higher against the Japanese yen, as the interest rate differential continues to be a major driver.

NZD/USD Analysis: Slight Bounce Upwards but Lower Range Still Lingers

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:40 am

The currency pair has managed to produce upwards momentum since touching a low on Friday.

USD/NOK Forecast: US Dollar Pulls Back Against Norwegian Krone

Apr 24, 2024 | 01:24 am

The US dollar has pulled back a bit against the Norwegian krone during the early hours on Tuesdayץ

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 24, 2024 | 00:07 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.45; (P) 192.15; (R1) 193.47; More.. GBP/JPY is still bounded in range below 193.51 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 189.97 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 will indicate that […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

IFO business climate. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April German business climate index from the Institute for Economic Research (IFO), based on a survey of managers of 7.0K enterprises in the manufacturing industry, construction sector, wholesale and retail trade, will be published. The value may increase from 87.8 points to 88.9 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Business expectations index. Germany, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), the April business expectations index in Germany will be published, which measures business sentiment and business conditions in the country through a survey of representatives of 7.0K companies. A decrease is predicted from 87.5 points to 84.7 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index in New Zealand will be published – the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It affects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy decisions. The figure may rise from 0.6% to 0.8% QoQ and fall from 4.1% to 3.4% YoY. Read more

Trade balance. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), New Zealand will publish March data on the trade balance – an indicator that records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The negative trend is likely to continue from the current –218.0M New Zealand dollars to –505.0M New Zealand dollars MoM, putting pressure on the national currency. Read more

API weekly crude oil stock. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The last time, the statistics recorded a correction to 4.090M barrels of crude oil, and the trend continuation may put pressure on oil prices. Read more

New home sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on home sales on the primary market. The indicator records the number of new residential buildings sold during the past month and is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may increase from 662.0K to 668.0K, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. USA 15:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 04:45 am

At 15:45 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the US industry and services sector will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. Manufacturing PMI may change from 51.9 points to 52.0 points and for the services PMI from 51.7 points to 52.0 points. Read more

Building permits. USA, 14:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 23, 2024 | 03:00 am

At 14:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the American government for the construction of real estate, being one of the most important sector indicators. The value may change from 1.524M to 1.458M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The manufacturing PMI may consolidate at 50.3 points, services PMI may drop from 53.1 points to 53.0 points, and the composite PMI may increase from 52.8 points to 52.9 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU countries will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 46.1 points to 46.5 points, the services PMI from 51.5 points to 51.8 points, and the composite PMI change from 50.3 points to 49.7 points. Read more

Manufacturing and service PMI. Germany, 09:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:30 pm

At 09:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Germany will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 41.9 points to 42.8 points, the services PMI from 50.1 points to 50.6 points, and the composite PMI may change from 47.7 points to 47.0 points. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – BOJ, AU inflation, US PCE and US Magnificent 7 stocks earnings in the focus

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:29 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation […]

Manufacturing and service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Japan will be published. They reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may correct from 48.2 points to 48.0 points, and the services PMI from 54.1 points to 54.9 points. Read more

Consumer Confidence. EU, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index will be published in the Eurozone. The indicator is calculated based on a survey of 2.3K households that evaluate the prospects for the economy. This is a leading indicator for consumer spending, its high values indicate consumer optimism, and vice versa. If in April the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -14.9 points, this will put pressure on the position of the European currency. Read more

SPX 500: How low can the correction go?

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:12 am

The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day moving average put its medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy. The current multi-week […]

New Housing Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the new housing price index for March will be published in Canada; it allows analyzing the state of the national real estate market and assessing the impact of dynamics on the economy as a whole. The value is likely to be fixed at 0.1%, pushing the Canadian dollar quotes to an uptrend. Read more

Raw Materials Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the March commodity price index will be published in Canada. Unlike the index of prices for manufactured goods, this indicator includes purchase items that are not produced in the country, and all costs incurred by the buyer of raw materials, including the goods themselves, transportation costs, net taxes paid, customs duties, are involved in its calculation. If the value continues to show negative dynamics from 2.1% MoM and from -4.7% YoY, this will act as a driver of the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Read more

Industrial Orders Index from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI). UK, 12:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:00 am

At 12:00 (GMT+2), April data on the index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI) will be published in the UK. It is calculated on the basis of a survey of representatives of leading British enterprises and is an important indicator of the state of British business. If the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -18.0 points, this may put pressure on the pound. Read more

Consumer Confidence. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), Turkey will publish April data on the consumer confidence index, reflecting the degree of confidence in the strength of the national economy. If the indicator continues its positive dynamics from the current 79.4 points, this may support the lira's position. Read more

Rightmove Group Ltd. House Price Index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2) in the UK, the house price index for April from the research company Rightmove Group Ltd. will be published, recording the change in the average cost of houses for sale. If it continues its negative dynamics from the current 0.8%, this may put pressure on the pound's position. Read more

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report records changes in the amount of oil production capacity in the United States. The number of towers was last down to 506 units, and a continuation of this trend could support oil prices. Read more

Euro edges higher, ECB eyes June cut

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:14 am

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest […]

USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI eases

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:54 am

The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down […]

GBP/USD edges higher after flat retail sales

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%. Fuel sales were […]

Retail sales. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be published in the UK. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). The rate is expected to adjust from 0.0% to 0.3% MoM and from –0.4% to –0.7% YoY, while the core figure is likely to fall from 0.2% to −0.1% MoM and from −0.5% to −0.9% YoY, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Producer price index. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will publish the March producer price index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting the monthly change in prices for goods and services provided by producers, and has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. The figure is likely to adjust from –0.4% to 0.0% MoM and from –4.1% to –3.8% YoY, supporting the euro. Read more

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]

NZ dollar rebounds on sticky inflation report

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:16 am

The New Zealand dollar has bounced back with strong gains on Wednesday, ending a nasty slide of 3.4% which started last week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5907, up 0.45%. New Zealand inflation falls less than expected New Zealand’s CPI continued to ease in the first quarter but the markets were […]

GBP/USD rises as UK inflation higher than expected

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:46 am

The British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation eased to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% in February […]

EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish exhaustion condition detected after 2-month of rallies

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:24 am

A bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is at risk of shaping a short-term mean reversion decline within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch […]

NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 am

The New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]

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