Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts ☀️

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 18th (analysis of morning deals)

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:28 am

In my morning forecast, I pointed out the level of 1.2447 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The pair's decline occurred, but the update of 1.2447 did not happen. Low market volatility and the absence of important statistics from the UK led to a decrease in trading volume. The technical picture remained unchanged for the second half of the day.To open long positions on GBP/USD:Now, let's see how traders will behave after a series of fundamental statistics from the US, which show that they can stir up the market. Figures on initial jobless claims, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index, existing home sales volume, and the leading indicators index are expected. These are secondary reports, but something may happen in the current market conditions of complete calm. In case of a pair's decline, buyers will need to prove their presence in the market, and the formation of a false breakout around 1.2450 will help with this, providing an entry point for buying with a target of growth to the resistance at 1.2493, which we didn't reach in the first half of the day. Breaking and testing this range from top to bottom will strengthen the chance of a GBP/USD recovery, leading to new purchases and allowing it to reach 1.2539. If the pair breaks above this range, we can talk about a surge towards 1.2575, where I plan to take a profit. In the scenario of a decline in GBP/USD and the absence of buyers at 1.2450 in the second half of the day, sellers will get a chance for a larger pair's decline along the trend. In this case, I will look for purchases around 1.2407. Forming a false breakout will be a suitable option for entering the market. Opening long positions on GBP/USD immediately on a rebound can be done from 1.2375 with a 30-35 point correction target within the day.To open short positions on GBP/USD:The chances of the pound's decline remain. But before that, I would like to see how sellers will behave around the nearest resistance at 1.2493, where a false breakout will provide a suitable entry point for selling in an attempt to push through the fairly significant support at 1.2450, which acts as the middle of a sideways channel, and where the moving averages are located, playing on the bulls' side. Breaking and retesting from the bottom to the top of 1.2450 will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another entry point for selling with targets of renewing 1.2407 and 1.2375. The ultimate target will be around 1.2340, where I will make a profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD growth and the absence of bears at 1.2493 in the second half of the day, bulls will have the opportunity to build up a fairly good correction toward the resistance at 1.2359. I will also consider selling there only on a false breakout. If there is no activity, I advise opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2575, counting on a pair's rebound downwards by 30-35 points within the day.The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9th showed a sharp decrease in long and short positions. Pound buyers left the market faster than sellers, and there are objective reasons for this: the main one is the high inflationary pressure in the US, which will maintain demand for the dollar, exerting serious pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The second reason is the soft policy of the Bank of England, which has yet to go anywhere. New statements from the regulator's representatives may negatively affect the bullish prospects for the pound, especially after the ECB's clear position last week, which consisted of rate cuts in the eurozone as early as this summer. In addition to all this, the Federal Reserve needs to maintain a tough stance, and it is unlikely that we can expect a strong bullish market in the GBP/USD pair. The latest COT report states that long non-commercial positions decreased by 18,352 to 80,000, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 3,190 to 51,748. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,704.Indicator signals:Moving averagesTrading is above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating pound growth.Note. The period and prices of moving averages considered by the author are on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger BandsIn case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2440, will act as support.Indicator descriptions:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period - 30. Marked on the chart in green.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA - period 12. Slow EMA - period 26. SMA - period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period - 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD is higher and so is the USDCHF. The pair has reached the 100 hour MA. What next?

Apr 18, 2024 | 07:55 am

The USD is higher and so is the USDCHF in morning US trading. The pair has now moved back up to retest its 100-day moving average up 0.91199. It will now take a move above that level - and staying above that level - to increase the bullish bias and have traders looking back toward the high prices from earlier this week and last week between 0.91469 and 0.9151. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for April 18-20, 2024: buy above $62,500 or $63,037 (4/8 Murray - rebound)

Apr 18, 2024 | 07:49 am

BTC/USD is trading around $61,927, below the downtrend channel, and bouncing after reaching the low of $59,619, a level that coincided with the area of 3/8 Murray.On the H4 chart, we can see that Bitcoin has been under strong downward pressure since April 11. Only a sharp break above this channel could change the outlook into positive for BTC.If this scenario occurs, we could look for opportunities to buy provided that the cryptocurrency consolidates above 62,500 or above the 21 SMA located at 63,037.On the contrary, if BTC fails to break this downtrend channel, the bearish cycle could resume and the price could reach the psychological level of $60,000 and could continue its fall until reaching 2/8 Murray located at $55,000.The eagle indicator reached an extremely oversold zone on April 17. From that point, it is giving a positive signal. Our trading plan is to wait for confirmation of the breakout of the trend channel to buy with targets at the 200 EMA located at 66,172, 68,750 and finally, at 7/8 Murray located at 71,875.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. April 18th. Andrew Bailey did not clarify the situation on QE

Apr 18, 2024 | 07:41 am

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade horizontally on Wednesday. The Fibonacci level of 50.0%–1.2464 is currently being ignored by traders as a new sideways channel has formed. This channel is small, but the pair may spend some time there. Trading signals should not be sought around the level of 1.2464. The market could be more active this week. It is better to analyze the chart pattern on the 4-hour chart now. The wave situation still does not raise any questions. The last completed upward wave failed to break the last peak (from March 21st), and the last downward wave broke the previous wave's low (April 1st). Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion. The first sign of bulls turning aggressive could be a breakthrough of the peak from April 9th, but bulls need to cover a distance of about 250 points to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715, which is unlikely to happen soon.Two important events were supposed to occur yesterday, but they were insignificant. Traders reacted to the UK inflation report as if it were a report on business activity in the construction sector, and the rise of the British currency does not reflect the essence of the report itself. Inflation in Britain has slowed down again and is already very close to 3%. The Bank of England may start discussing QE easing in a couple of months. Against Jerome Powell's statement that inflation in the US has stopped decreasing, automatically postponing the policy easing to a later date, bears have the necessary support to continue pushing the pound down. However, a new upward wave has started forming. There is no reason to worry if this wave is corrective and ends soon. However, after several months of trading in a sideways channel, there is a possibility that the pair still tends towards horizontal movement. On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the British pound after forming two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the level of 1.2620. The descending trend corridor characterizes the current sentiment of traders as "bearish," allowing for expectations of new bear attacks. The bulls can only count on a slight increase within the channel.Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category for the last reporting week has become less "bullish." The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 18,352 units, and the number of short contracts decreased by 3,190. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bullish" but has weakened in recent weeks. The gap between the number of Long and Short contracts is now less than double: 80 thousand versus 52 thousand.There are still prospects for a decline in the British pound, but over the last 3 months, the number of long positions has increased from 61 thousand to 80 thousand, while the number of short positions has hardly changed. Over time, bulls will start getting rid of buy positions as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. Bears have demonstrated weakness and complete reluctance to advance over the past few months, but the US inflation report could give them confidence and strength.News Calendar for the US and the UK:US - Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).US - New Home Sales (14:00 UTC).On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only two entries, neither of which are the most significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment today may be very weak.Forecast for GBP/USD and Trader Advice:I don't see any potential signals for selling the British pound today. Purchases are more interesting today, but the potential for the British pound to rise is limited, the news background is weak, and traders have been ignoring the level of 1.2464 for several consecutive days. Today is not the best day to look for trading signals.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 18-20, 2024: buy above $2,375 (6/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

Apr 18, 2024 | 07:23 am

Gold is trading around 2,381, above the 21 SMA, and above 6/8 Murray. Technically, gold could continue its rise in the coming days if it consolidates above 2,375. The metal could trade within the uptrend channel and could reach 7/8 Murray located at 2,437.In case gold breaks and consolidates below the uptrend channel forming since March 26, it could accelerate its bearish movement and reach 4/8 Murray located at 2,250 in the short term. The instrument could even find good support around the 200 EMA located at 2,243.Over the next few hours, we could expect gold to continue rising. The chances could be favorable as gold has found good support at 2,375.Yesterday during the American session, the XAU/USD reached the bottom of the bullish channel and from that point, it has been bouncing. It means that the metal maintains bullish momentum. In this case, we will only buy above 6/8 of Murray.The eagle indicator is giving a negative signal. If the instrument breaks and falls below 2,370, the outlook could change and it will be seen by traders as an opportunity to sell.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

US dollar moving higher. NY Fed Pres. Williams doesn't rule out a fed hike if needed

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:58 am

NY Fed Pres. Williams doesn't rule out a fed hike if needed. That has the market on edge and the US dollar moving higher. Rates are also higher with the 10 year now up 4.2 basis points.EURUSD: The EURUSD is back below the swing area outlined in the kickstart video at 1.0655. It moves back toward its 100-day moving average 1.06419.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD is moving back within the swing area between 1.2427 and 1.2449, and away from its 50% midpoint at 1.24646.USDJPY: The USDJPY is moving to a new high, but at the same time is not running. A topside trend line and then the highs from earlier this week are targets (see chart above). The good news for buyers is the 38.2% of the recent move higher is continuing to hold support. The buyers are winning. The seller are not in control if the correction CANNOT get below the 38.2% of just the last trend move higher. USDCHF: The USDCHF is back above the 200 hour MA (green line) at 0.9098 and also above the 0.9100 level. A swing level this week (and last) is at 0.9112 and the 100 hour MA (blue line on chart below) is at 0.9120. Get above it, and the buyers take more control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0653; (R1) 1.0700; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0601 and intraday bias stays neutral. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:34 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2486; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.2404 is extending. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2404 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9088; (P) 0.9115; (R1) 0.9135; More…. No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as consolidation from 0.9151 is extending. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 0.9243 key resistance next. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/TRY Forecast: IMF Expects Lira to Fall to Record Lows - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:26 am

USD/TRY trading rose in early Thursday trading, as the pair seeks to break through resistance levels that have held this month at 32.50 and close above them daily.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:21 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.71; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci projection level. On the downside, break of 153.89 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Kickstart your FX trading for April 18 w/ a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:11 am

Kickstart your FX trading for April 18, 2024, with a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.The EURUSD moved to a new session high for the week and above a swing area between 1.0655 and 1.0675, but could not extend above the February 1.0694 target. Buyers have turned to sellers. The price is back within the aforementioned swing area.The USDJPY backed off from the highest levels since 1990 on Tuesday at 154.78. Today the corrective low was able to get below its rising 100-day moving average (currently at 154.174), but COULD NOT get below the 38.2% retracement of the last trend moved to the upside at 153.94. Sellers turned to buyers. The price is back above the 100-day moving average. The buyers are still in control. The GBPUSD has been trading up and down this week. Yesterday and today, the price has been trading above and below its 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 2023 low. That level comes at 1.24646. Stay below that level, and will below the swing area between 1.2427 and 1.2449, would increase the bearish bias technically. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Analysis: Weak Sentiment Weighs on Sterling - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:48 am

In limited trading, the British pound received a boost after the latest UK inflation reading exceeded expectations and shifted the odds in favor of an August rate cut.

USD/JPY in crisis

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:32 am

154.80 is the new price ceiling for USD/JPY. On the wave of the dollar rally, buyers twice approached this resistance level (which, by the way, corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe) and pulled back twice. However, this does not mean that traders are afraid of the 155 level. After the instrument overcame the psychologically important barrier of 152.00, higher levels do not inspire fears anymore, so this factor plays a secondary role. The Japanese monetary authorities continue to stand on the sidelines, limiting themselves to verbal interventions that no longer have any impact on the market. Buyers of USD/JPY, like sharks, "are sniffing the smell of blood" and, taking advantage of the "impunity", pushed the price upward for several weeks.Take a look at the weekly chart of US/JPY. The instrument has been following the uptrend for the sixth week in a row. Over this time, the price increased by no less than 800 pips! And the target of 155.00 is not much different from the previous "red lines", starting from the level of 152.00. Buyers of USD/JPY stopped for one simple reason: dollar bulls loosened their grip amid growing risk appetite and geopolitical outcome in the Middle East (no further escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel). Plus, the market has already played out the most significant fundamental signals that appeared last week. Rising inflation in the US has pushed the expected timeline for the Fed's interest rate cut from June to at least September. Thanks to this fundamental factor, USD/JPY rose from 151.50 to a new 34-year high of 154.80. But to conquer higher than 155 levels, additional informational catalysts are needed. But they are not available. At least this week, all news has had a limited impact on USD/JPY. For example, retail sales in the US increased in March by 0.7%, stronger than a forecast of 0.4%. Excluding auto, retail sales rose by 1.1% versus a forecast of 0.5%. Buyers of USD/JPY reacted to this report with growth, pushing the price towards 154.80, but momentum faded in this area. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also did not impress traders, although he voiced hawkish messages. He made it clear that the regulator would not reduce the interest rate in June, but the market had already reacted to this "news". In general, market participants clearly expected more from Powell. But he maintained a balance in his rhetoric, did not deliver a clear-cut message, and, as a result, provided weak (and short-term) support for the American currency. In other words, dollar bulls (and USD/JPY buyers) are going through a crisis. The old information catalysts no longer work, and there are simply no new ones. However, all is not lost. Tomorrow, on April 19, at the start of the Asian session in Japan, key data on Japan's inflation for March will be published. The acceleration of inflation will probably have a limited impact on USD/JPY: a corrective pullback is possible, but no more. But if inflation slows down more than expected, USD/JPY buyers may again try to approach the 155 level, and perhaps test this barrier. Let me remind you that in February, the overall consumer price index rose sharply to 2.8%, after a three-month downward movement (in January the CPI dropped to 2.2%). According to flash estimates, the national CPI will reach 2.7% in March. So, the inflation growth rate will slow down. The core CPI excluding fresh food prices is expected to show similar dynamics, declining to 2.7% after rising to 2.8%. It is obvious that Japanese CPI data will affect market expectations regarding a rate increase by the Bank of Japan. Easing price pressure will negatively affect traders' expectations regarding further tightening of monetary policy in Japan. In this case, buyers of USD/JPY can again overcome the resistance level of 154.80 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and try to climb above 155. Will the Japanese government react to another price surge? In fact, many experts (in particular, analysts at Rabobank and UOB Group) say that the risk of forex intervention to prevent USD/JPY from breaking through the 155.00 target is quite high. By the way, today Japanese Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda once again stated that the authorities "do not exclude any options for action in the event of excessive movement of the yen." He did not specify whether the 155.00+ price zone meets this criterion. But it is Kanda who has the right to initiate intervention, so his concern in this context sounds like a warning. Thus, on the one hand, the emerging fundamental background contributes to a further increase in the price of USD/JPY, especially if inflation in Japan slows down more than expected. On the other hand, we must not forget about the high risks of retaliatory measures from the Japanese authorities. Each upward point above 155.00 increases the risk of currency intervention. In such conditions, it is impossible to recommend long positions, even though almost all fundamental factors point to further growth in USD/JPY. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/JPY Analysis: Eyes Watching Japan's Action Cautiously - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:22 am

Recently, the US dollar exchange rate against other major currencies has remained supported by new warnings from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that US interest rates will need to stay at current levels for longer than previously expected.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:06 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the first key support level at 15929 following the hot US Retail Sales and the geopolitical news. The price ranged for the entire trading session yesterday as the risk sentiment remained negative. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the low to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking the low to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15453.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the 3-week long range and triggered more bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively to target a break below the 15929 support. After the breakout of the rising wedge, the market started to rollover from the highs and the chances of seeing a correction all the way down to the base of the pattern at 14477 increases by the day. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. Alternatively, the sellers can wait for the price to break the low to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Analysis: Weak Uptrend Correction Attempts - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:03 am

For three trading sessions in a row, the price of the euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD) is trying to rebound higher, but its gains did not exceed the level of 1.0680.

The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:02 am

The CHF is the strongest and the JPY is the weakest as the North American session begins.The USD is mostly lower to start the trading day.Overnight, Australian employment change showed -6.6K versus 7.2K. However, the unemployment rate was less than expectations at 3.8 cents versus 3.9% expected, but was up from last month's 3.7% The AUDUSD is modestly higher in trading today, but has found willing sellers near the topside swing area target:Last night in Japan, BOJ policymaker Asahi Noguchi highlighted the mixed impacts of a weaker yen, noting that while some large firms have benefited, it poses broader economic challenges. Noguchi expressed increasing confidence in reaching the BOJ's 2% inflation target but remained cautious about the pace of future interest rate hikes, emphasizing that they would depend on economic data. He also discussed the potential prolonged effects of yen weakness on wages and prices, which must be considered in monetary policy decisions. Despite the potential for future rate hikes, Noguchi did not commit to any specific actions for the remainder of the year, indicating uncertainty in the immediate monetary policy path. The USDJPY moved lower in the Asian session and tested the 38.2% of the last trend move higher at 153.94 at session lows before rebounding back higher. The price is also back above its rising 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) at 154.153 after dipping below that MA on the fall. If the sellers are to "win" vs the buyers, they need to get and stay below the 38.2% of the last move higher at the minimum. If they cannot do that, the sellers are simply not winning. On the economic calendar today, the weekly US jobless claims (215K est. vs 211K last week), Philly Fed business index (2.3 vs 3.2 last month), existing home sales (4.20M units vs 4.38M annualized last month) and leading index (which was actually positive in the prior month after a string of negative readings), will all be released today. Looking at the Fedspeak ahead of the quiet period which will begin tomorrow after the close:Fed Gov. Bowman will be speaking at 9:05 AM ETNY Fed Pres. Williams will speak at 9:15 AM ETAtlanta Fed Pres. Bostic will speak at 11 AM ETAtlanta Fed Pres. Bostic will also speak at 5:45 PM just in case he forgot to remind us that the Fed policy will likely be delayedLooking at other speakers today, ECBs di Guindos and ECBs Schnabel will both be speaking. ECBs di Guindos spoke earlier today and said it would be appropriate to loosen restrictive policy if inflation conditions are met.Geopolitical news as us reportedly agreeing to back an Israeli operation in Rafah return for Israel not conducting a major strike on Iran. Report to the was a large movement of Israeli armored vehicles near the outskirts of the city of Rafah. There were other reports that Israel is unlikely to carry out an retaliatory attack against Iran before Passover. So the Middle East is heating up a bit today. TSMC announced earnings which beat expectations, but its stock is still lower in pre-market trading (trading down $2.04 or -1.47% at $137):Performance:Net Profit: Increased by 9%, BEAT market expectations.Revenue: Rose 16.5% annually, influenced by high demand in AI.Factors Contributing to Performance:Increased AI Demand: Helped counteract reduced demand from pandemic-era electronics.Comparative Year Factor: Last year's weak chip demand created a lower comparison base, aiding this year's significant growth.Summary: TSMC BEAT market expectations with strong first-quarter results driven by burgeoning AI demand and a favorable year-over-year comparison.Netflix will report its earnings after the close. Intuitive surgical loss will report their earnings later today.US stocks are trading higher in premarket trading, yields are near unchanged on crude oil's lower, gold is moving back to the upside.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down one dollar or -1.23% at $81.67. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.80Gold is trading up by $22.29 or 0.95% at $2382.41. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2387.80.Silver is trading up $0.23 or 0.83% at $28.43. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.46Bitcoin currently trades at $62,800 – not far off of the level at this time yesterday. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,846In the premarket, the US major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 89 points. Yesterday, the index fell -45.6 points or -0.12% at 37753.32S&P futures are implying a gain of 12.54 points. Yesterday, the index fell -29.18 points or -0.58% at 5022.22Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 63.88 points. Yesterday, the index fell -181.88 points or -1.15% at 15683.37The European indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.06%France CAC , was 0.43%UK FTSE 100, +0.26Spain's Ibex, +0.80%Italy's FTSE MIB, +0.22% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higher:Japan's Nikkei 225, +0.31%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +0.09%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.82%Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.48%Looking at the US debt market, yields are near unchanged. 2-year yield 4.931%, +0.7 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.964%5-year yield 4.615%, -0.2 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.674%10-year yield 4.584%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.651%30-year yield 4.699%, unchanged. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.757%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:The 2-10 year spread is at -35.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -31.1 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -24.2 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -20.8 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are lower: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Existing Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States will be published, which reflect the number of existing residential buildings sold during the past month, and are one of the most important indicators of the construction market. The figure is expected to decrease from 4.38 million to 4.20 million. Read more

EUR/USD: trading plan for US session on April 18. EUR gets stuck at 1.0686

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:55 am

In my morning article, I paid attention to the level of 1.0686 and planned to make decisions on entering the market from there. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and discuss what happened there. The growth and a false breakout in the area of 1.0686 produced a sell signal, which was never fully realized. Having moved down by 15 pips, EUR/USD returned back to 1.0686, where trading is now taking place. In the afternoon, the technical picture changed only slightly.What is needed to open long positions on EUR/USD The empty economic calendar for the eurozone allowed the euro to continue its rise, but, as expected, it failed to break above 1.0686. There are probably few people willing to buy at such highs amid a bear market that is not going away. Ahead we have figures on the weekly number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and existing home sales in the US. As a rule, strong economic data support the US dollar. Buyers of the European currency will be ready for this if EUR/USD declines to the area of 1.0647. A false breakout would be a suitable option for buying in anticipation of another attempt to test 1.0688, which was not possible in the first half of the day. A breakout and update from top to bottom of this range will lead to growth in EUR/USD with a chance of a breakthrough to 1.0726. The farthest target will be a high at 1.0754, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity in the area of 1.0647, where the moving averages are slightly higher, playing on the side of buyers, pressure on the euro will return as part of the bearish trend. In this case, I will enter the market only after a false breakout in the area of the next support 1.0605. I plan to open long positions immediately on a dip from 1.0569, bearing in mind an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day. What is needed to open short positions on EUR/USD The euro sellers have every chance of a further decline. A false breakout in the area of the morning resistance at 1.0688, which has been slightly shifted upward, will be an ideal scenario for entering short positions with the prospect of updating support at 1.0647, where I expect more robust buying activity. A breakout and consolidation below this range, as well as a reverse test from bottom to top, will give another selling point with the price moving to the area of 1.0605, which will revive the bearish trend. I expect more active participation from large buyers there. The farthest target will be at least 1.0569, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD moves upward in the afternoon, and there are no bears at 1.0688, and this level has already been tested for strength once today, the bulls will try to continue the correction. In this case, I will postpone short positions until the test of the next resistance at 1.0726. I will also sell there, but only after unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately during a rebound from 1.0754, anticipating an intraday downward correction of 30-35 pips. The COT (Commitment of Traders) report for April 9 showed a decrease both in long and short positions. The meeting of the European Central Bank and the dovish tone of policymakers, as well as the large fall in the euro that followed, indicate the lingering problems of the buyers of risky assets. Considering that the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve, on the contrary, will remain hawkish for a longer period, there is no reason to count on a return in demand for the euro yet. For this reason, I bet on further development of the bullish trend in the US dollar and a decline in the euro. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions fell by 12,839 to 175,419, while short non-commercial positions dropped by 28,768 to 142,696. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,451.Indicators' signals Moving averages The instrument is trading slightly above the 30 and 50-day moving averages. It indicates that the euro is making attempts to extend its growth. Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the analyst on the 1-hour chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart. Bollinger Bands In case EUR/USD goes down, the indicator's lower border at about 1.0650 will act as support. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Analysis: Temporary Halt to Gains - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:53 am

In the middle of trading this week, gold futures retreated as investors digested the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Still Looking Bullish - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:50 am

Gold and Silver are holding up well despite the generally strong bearish reversals we have just seen in commodity markets.

Fed to keep policy tight for longer than markets view

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:06 am

Recently, the US dollar has not been particularly popular among traders, who have shifted their focus to more attractive risk assets. However, this situation could end as quickly as it began. Obviously, following the latest US inflation data, the Federal Reserve's course will now change as rapidly as prices do. Yesterday, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester stated that monetary policy is in good shape, adding that the central bank should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. She also noted that she still expects inflation to ease further. Evidently, only new data will provide confidence that inflation is moving back to the Fed's 2% target, as a strong economy and robust labor market are giving the Fed room to be patient with policy. "I still am expecting inflation to come down but I do think that we need to be watching and gathering more information before we take an action," Mester said on Wednesday at an event in Chagrin Falls, Ohio. Earlier this month, Mester advocated for three interest rate cuts this year. Notably, the Fed official has a vote on monetary policy but will leave her post in June this year. Until then, the central bank is unlikely to make any interest rate moves. Only a sharp rise in inflation in April could prompt the Fed to increase borrowing costs, but no one will be rushing to lower them. At a separate event in Washington, another Fed official, Michelle Bowman, stated that progress on inflation may have stalled and questioned the the degree to which monetary policy is restraining the economy. "There is a lot of financial market activity and a lot of continued growth that we wouldn't have expected if the policy was sufficiently tight," Bowman said on Wednesday. According to him, these restrictive measures will continue, and time will tell whether they are restrictive enough. Recently, more Fed representatives have stated that they are no longer in a hurry to lower rates, which they have maintained in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% since last July. Higher-than-expected inflation data for the first three months of this year have heightened fears that returning to the Fed's 2% target may take longer than previously anticipated. This is a defining moment explaining why the US dollar has recently shown such a strong rally against the euro and British pound. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to trim early losses. Buyers now need to take control of the 1.0685 level. In this case, the way to 1.0730 and 1.0760 will open. However, reaching the latter will be quite challenging without support from major players. The most distant target is the peak at 1.0780. In case of a decline, major buyers are expected to take the lead only at around 1.0650. If the price falls below this level, it would be wise to wait for the euro to hit a new low at 1.0605, or open long positions from 1.0560. As for the GBP/USD pair, bulls need to regain control of the nearest resistance level at 1.2490. This will allow aiming for 1.2540, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The most distant target lies in the area of 1.2575. Its breakout will pave the way for a more pronounced surge in the British pound upwards to 1.2620. In a bear case scenario, sellers will try to take control of the 1.2440 mark. If they succeed, breaking through the range will deliver a serious blow to bulls' positions and push sterling down to the 1.2410 low and then probably the level of 1.2370. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Watch these key resistance zones

Apr 18, 2024 | 04:04 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The market expects the first rate cut in August.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD is pulling back into some key resistance levels with even a possible break and retest pattern around the 1.25 handle. In fact, we can see that the sellers will have two short opportunities:The first one around the 1.25 handle where they will also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the blue 8 moving average. The second one around the 1.26 handle where they will find the confluence of the trendline, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above the trendline to turn the trend around and start targeting a new cycle high. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the bearish setups around the 1.25 and the 1.26 handles. If the price were to break above the 1.25 resistance zone, we can expect the buyers to increase the bullish bets into the trendline targeting a break above it. There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the ultimate target for the pullback should be the base of the divergent formation around the 1.26 handle with a break above it confirming a reversal. In case, we get a rejection from the 1.25 resistance, the buyers might lean on the black counter-trendline to position for a rally into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while tomorrow we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 211.0 thousand to 214.0 thousand. Read more

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 02:47 am

Yesterday, the Dow Jones extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has been trading inside a rising channel and continued to diverge with the MACD for a long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. Recently, we got a breakout which opened the door for a bigger correction into the 37128 level. The sellers managed to break the second key support level and will now target a drop into the third and last one at 37128. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break the current downward trend to start targeting new highs. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been getting rejected by the downward trendline and the blue 8 moving average as the sellers kept leaning on them with a defined risk above the trendline to position for new lows. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline again to position for a drop into the third key support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that all the rallies have been faded as the sellers kept on piling in around the trendline as they continue to target the 37128 support. We can notice that we are starting to see a divergence with the MACD which is signalling a weakening bearish momentum. The price action might also form a descending triangle so a break on either side will likely trigger a sustained move. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

NZD/USD Analysis: Lower Realms Being Explored as Sentiment Solidifies - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 02:08 am

The downwards momentum in the NZD/USD which has developed over the mid-term cannot be denied.

Forex forecast 04/18/2024: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:57 am

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Video Agenda: 00:00 INTRO 00:13 Today's key events: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, BoJ Board Member Noguchi Speaks, ECB's De Guindos Speaks 02:51 EUR/USD 04:18 GBP/USD 05:54 GOLD 06:58 BTC/USD 08:36 ETH/USD Useful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Resistance at $0.6456 Holding - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:50 am

Small recovery against the greenback after G7 statement.

BTC/USD Analysis: Halving and Energy Costs Factors for Speculators - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:28 am

Bitcoin is about to undergo a transactional halving.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:25 am

Yesterday, the S&P 500 extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 continues to rollover with the trend now looking clearly bearish as the price keeps on printing lower lows and lower highs with the moving averages being crossed to the downside. The sellers continue to pile in at every support break with the next one coming at 4946. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break some key levels on the lower timeframes to start targeting new highs. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor black trendline defining the current downward momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again if we get a pullback into the trendline to position for a drop into the 4946 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target a rally into the trendline around the 5120 level. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Video market update for April 18, 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:12 am

Potential for the further drop on BTCUSDThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

USD/SGD Forecast: US Dollar Pulls Back Slightly Against Singapore Dollar - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 01:04 am

The US dollar pulled back slightly during the trading session on Monday.

USD/ZAR Forecast: South African Rand Continues to See Pressure - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:56 am

The USD initially pulled back against the ZAR during the trading session on Wednesday but has found support below the 19 Rand level in order to get involved.

USD/CAD Forecast: US Dollar Pulls Back Against Canadian Dollars - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:48 am

The US dollar has fallen a bit against the Canadian dollar during the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:47 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 191.70; (P) 192.27; (R1) 192.86; More.. Range trading continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from 178.32, and target 38.2% […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:43 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.20; (P) 164.51; (R1) 165.08; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.26 support will argue that it’s at least correcting the rise from 153.15, and target 38.2% […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:40 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8536; (P) 0.8554; (R1) 0.8587; More… EUR/GBP dipped to 0.8519 but quickly recovered. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.8497 low next. On […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:36 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6548; (P) 1.6574; (R1) 1.6612; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral with current retreat and some consolidations would be seen. Further rally is mildly in favor. Above 1.6616 will resume the rebound form 1.6368 to 1.6677 resistance next. Break there will confirm that correction from 1.6742 has completed, and bring […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9692; (P) 0.9706; (R1) 0.9736; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is turned neutral first with current recovery. While correction from 0.9847 could extend lower, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9745 minor resistance will turn bias back to […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Forecast: British Pound Gives Back Some Gains - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:20 am

The British pound has rallied significantly during the early hours on Wednesday but has given back some of the gains.

USD/JPY Forex Signal: US Dollar Continues to Pound the Japanese Yen - 18 April 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:12 am

The US dollar initially pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday but found buyers underneath to continue to pick it up.

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:11 am

In the absence of economic reports or other news that could affect the market, investors finally paid attention to the dollar's overbought condition. So, there was nothing to prevent the local correction, which, by the way, is still far from over. The market imbalances, although reduced, have not disappeared altogether. And except for the data on unemployment claims in the United States, today's economic calendar is empty. And with the US dollar still overbought, these reports are not particularly important. Moreover, claims are expected to increase by 4,000, and that's incredibly small. So we can basically say that nothing will change. Such minor changes are not capable of influencing investor sentiment. In other words, the pair will likely correct higher on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair has started a long-awaited corrective movement. The support level at 1.0600 played a role, which the quote recently approached.The RSI has left the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart, and it has upwardly crossed the 50 moving average. This indicates an increase in the volume of long positions in the euro.On the same time frame, two out of three of the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, corresponding to a sign of a slowdown in the downtrend cycle.OutlookConsidering the extent of the euro's weakness, we can assume that there is still room for more movement. For this reason, the pair is expected to rise to the level of 1.0700.Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short- and long-term timeframes.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 18, 2024 | 00:10 am

Gold has been consolidating below the 2400 level since last week as the mix of geopolitical and macro drivers led to a rangebound price action. In fact, on the geopolitical front, we still have some fears of an Israeli retaliation against Iran, although they are slowly dissipating due to the lack of a follow-through since Monday. On the macro side, the real yields have risen notably in the past couple of weeks, which is generally a negative driver for the Gold market. That was not the case this time and it’s not yet clear if it’s just because of geopolitical fears or something else. If it’s indeed just because of geopolitical fears, we might see a quick drop at some point, so it will be important to monitor the technical levels. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold got stuck in a consolidation just beneath the 2400 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets and target a bigger drop into the next trendline around the 2100 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to pullbacks into the minor black trendline where the buyers keep on leaning onto to position for new higher highs. If the price were to break lower, the reversal would be confirmed, and the sellers will pile in more aggressively to target a drop into the trendline around the 2300 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 2395 level where the price got rejected from several times since last week. If the price were to get there again, the sellers will likely step in again with a defined risk above it to position for a break below the trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsToday we have the last important report of the week, that is the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Flag Pattern Points to More Downside - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:57 pm

The GBP/USD exchange stabilized as the recent sell-off took a breather after the latest UK inflation data and a statement by Andrew Bailey.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Technical analysis on April 18

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:51 pm

EUR/USDHigher TimeframesThe monthly boundary of 1.0611 is still the most important obstacle for developing bearish bias on this section of the chart. Yesterday, in the process of testing the monthly support (1.0611), the daily rebound was executed. Confirming and developing the rebound will direct the corrective rise to the target levels, which are now represented by the resistance levels of the higher time frames. The nearest important resistances can be found at 1.0744 (daily short-term trend) and 1.0756 (weekly Fibo Kijun).H4 – H1During the daily rebound, the bulls managed to rise above the key levels of the lower time frames, so they had a major advantage on the lower time frames. The rebound will strengthen the bullish bias. Resistance of classic Pivot points (1.0699 - 1.0726 - 1.0772) will serve as reference points for the intraday rise. The loss of key levels at 1.0653-60 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend) may return the bearish bias, whose focus for the day will be on the support of classic Pivot points (1.0626 - 1.0580 - 1.0553).***GBP/USDHigher TimeframesDaily consolidation continues to unfold. The levels at 1.2464 - 1.2481 (monthly short-term trend + weekly medium-term trend) are still being tested. A rise above the current resistance area of 1.2464-81 - 1.2503 could provide a solid basis for strengthening the bullish bias and may also support the pair with the upward correction. Additional prospects can be found at 1.2556 - 1.2577 (for the bulls) and at 1.2383 (for the bears).H4 – H1The bullish correction led the pair to test the key level of the lower timeframe - the weekly long-term trend (1.2471). The bulls can gain a main advantage using a breakout and reversal from this level. Resistance of classic Pivot points (1.2481 - 1.2513 - 1.2545) will become the reference points. A pullback from the weekly long-term trend will bring back bearish prospects, with support of the classic Pivot points (1.2417 - 1.2385 - 1.2353) serving as benchmarks for the intraday decline.***The technical analysis of the situation uses:Higher timeframes - Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levelsLower timeframes - H1 - Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Euro Crash Eases but More Downside Possible - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:50 pm

The EUR/USD exchange rate recovered slightly on Thursday morning, erasing some of the recent losses.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Breaks Below Key Support Ahead of Bitcoin Halving - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:43 pm

It was a sea of red in the cryptocurrency market as the countdown to the Bitcoin halving event continued.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:40 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0626; (P) 1.0653; (R1) 1.0700; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral at this point as consolidation from 1.0601 is extending. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:37 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.11; (P) 154.43; (R1) 154.71; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current retreat. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 155.20 fibonacci projection level. On the downside, break of 153.89 minor support will turn bias back to the downside […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:32 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2451; (R1) 1.2486; More… GBP/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.2404 and intraday bias remains neutral. Upside but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2404 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:30 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9088; (P) 0.9115; (R1) 0.9135; More…. USD/CHF is extending the consolidation pattern from 0.9151 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper pull back cannot be ruled out. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 0.9243 key resistance next. In the bigger picture, price […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:27 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3743; (P) 1.3790; (R1) 1.3821; More… A temporary top was formed at 1.3845 in USD/CAD after hitting 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for pull back to 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3711). But downside should be contained by 1.3660 support […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 17, 2024 | 23:01 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6407; (P) 0.6427; (R1) 0.6454; More… A temporary low is formed at 0.6388 in AUD/USD with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen. But upside should be limited by 0.6492 minor resistance. Below 0.6388 should resume larger fall from 0.6870 through 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378 […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:55 pm

Yesterday, the Russell 2000 extended the drop into new lows despite a lack of bearish catalysts. In fact, we had pretty much a down day for most markets with selloffs in the US Dollar, Treasury yields and some commodities. On the geopolitical front, not much has changed as the Israeli retaliation continues to be delayed and it’s not even sure if they will strike at all now. On the macro side, the market has priced out almost all the rate cuts in 2024 as it expects just one cut later in the year. On the data front, we don’t have much to work on in the next couple of weeks except the PCE, which the Fed has already indicated to be slightly higher but mostly unchanged. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 broke through the key support zone around the 2020 level and extended the selloff into the 1950 level. The 1920 support looks inevitable at this point. The buyers will likely step in there with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 2020 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 1820. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new cycle high. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor black trendline which has been defining the current downward momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. We can also notice that the price is starting to diverge with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the sellers will likely lean on the trendline again to position for the final push into the 1920 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the major trendline around the 2020 resistance. Upcoming EventsToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 Forecast: Finds Support Underneath - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:24 pm

The S&P 500 initially fell overnight in the electronic hours, but it looks to me as if we are trying to recover a bit.

GBP/JPY Forecast: Sees Upward Momentum - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:21 pm

The British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen. Yet again on Wednesday, as it looks like the ¥193 level continues on for a lot of resistance.

USD/MXN Forecast: Peso Attempts a Recovery - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:17 pm

The U.S. dollar has fallen just a bit during the trading session on Wednesday as the 17.10 level has offered a bit of resistance.

AUD/USD Forecast: Recovers, Looks to Resistance - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:11 pm

The Aussie dollar did rally a bit during the trading session here on Wednesday, but the 0.64 or 0.50 level above should offer a significant amount of resistance as it had previously been supported.

BTC/USD Forecast: Grinds at Bottom of Consolidation Area - 18 April 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:08 pm

Bitcoin has been all over the place during the course of the trading session on Wednesday. See where BTC/USD is headed today.

Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:06 pm

Analyzing Wednesday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD failed to surpass the level of 1.0618 for the third time and eventually started a bullish correction after last week's decline. This isn't exactly predictable since there were hardly any significant macroeconomic or fundamental events yesterday. However, just a day earlier, Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank will not lower interest rates in June. He said there's been a "lack of further progress" on tackling inflation in the US. Therefore, the interest rates will stay high to return inflation to the Fed's 2% goal.At the same time, it is almost certain that the European Central Bank will lower rates in June, providing the US currency with an excellent opportunity to continue its upward movement for several more months. Therefore, the fundamental background suggests a downward movement, and what we are witnessing now is merely a standard correction.EUR/USD on 5M chart There was one trading signal on the 5-minute timeframe that is worth highlighting. At the beginning of the European session, the price bounced off the range of 1.0611-1.0618, after which it managed to rise to the level of 1.0668 and even surpass it. Therefore, novice traders could open long positions in the morning, which brought them a profit of about 40 pips. Holding above the level of 1.0668 can be used for new long positions, but the current rise is corrective in nature.Trading tips on Thursday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists. We believe that the euro should fall further, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. The recent macro data have provided full support for the US dollar. The global fundamental background indicates that the ECB will start lowering rates at the next meeting, while the Fed pushes back its rate cut cycle.On Thursday, the euro may continue to correct higher since it has surpassed the level of 1.0668. You may consider small purchases. At the same time, sell signals will be more interesting as the pair is following a downtrend.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. There are no significant events scheduled in the European Union today, while the US will only release secondary reports on unemployment claims and new home sales. Most likely, we can expect low volatility again today and, as a result, weak movements.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 18. Simple tips for beginners

Apr 17, 2024 | 22:06 pm

Analyzing Wednesday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair continued to trade sideways on Wednesday. After the price broke out of the 1.25-1.28 sideways channel, the pair suddenly stopped falling. Unfortunately, in this case, the pair may correct higher. We still expect a new downward trend since the pound doesn't have any solid reasons to rise. However, it appears that the market is returning to its previous stance where the pound is untouchable, no matter what happens. The British currency continues to trade in an aloof manner, despite last week's decline.Yesterday, the Consumer Price Index in the UK showed that inflation decreased to 3.2% in March. In our opinion, this is enough for the pound to continue its downward movement, as it should fall further even without this report. However, the market was disappointed by the fact that inflation did not sharply fall, although the Bank of England is now closer to the first monetary policy easing than the Federal Reserve. So for now, the aloofness persists.GBP/USD on 5M chart Several trading signals were formed on the 5-minute timeframe, but due to the flat movement over the past few days, all the signals turned out to be false. Initially, the pair breached the level of 1.2457 from below, then rebounded from it from above (a duplicate signal), and finally settled below it. Beginners could open both long and short positions yesterday, but at best, they faced breakeven outcomes. Traders could only potentially earn 10-15 pips with the second trade by manually closing it closer to the evening.Trading tips on Thursday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair has real technical grounds for forming a downward trend. After breaking below the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar to a much greater extent than the British one. Therefore, we only expect downward movements from the pair. However, it seems that once again the market is not in a rush to sell the British pound...On Thursday, novice traders can look for new sell signals below the level of 1.2502. Unfortunately, the pound is in a flat phase this week, so we shouldn't expect logical movements. This week's macroeconomic backdrop is weak, so we shouldn't expect strong movements either.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. No important events scheduled in the UK, while the US will only release secondary reports on unemployment claims and new home sales. We can expect another boring day.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The Fed and global instability: a double blow to American markets

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:23 pm

On Wednesday, the US stock market showed a decline, which is associated with investors' assessment of the Federal Reserve's actions in managing interest rates and the observation of moderate financial results at the start of the reporting season. The US dollar and Treasury yields weakened, retreating from their highs in months, while gold retreated from record levels. The three main US stock market indices ended the day with losses, with the Nasdaq particularly affected, which suffered losses of 1.15% due to a decline in the value of shares in the technology sector. As the first quarter reporting season began, travel companies and USB Bank baffled the market by failing to report impressive earnings and interest income figures, respectively. Travelers shares fell 7.41%, one of the biggest declines in the S&P 500 index and a record loss for the Dow Industrials, after the insurance giant missed analysts' first-quarter earnings estimates. Prologis and Abbott Laboratories also weighed heavily on the S&P after their quarterly results, with Prologis down 7.19% and Abbott Laboratories down 3.03%, despite hitting quarterly targets but missing full-year guidance. After two months of gains at the end of 2023 that continued into the start of the current quarter, the stock market has struggled, with the S&P 500 recording its fourth straight decline and heading for its third consecutive weekly loss. This comes as investors are revising their expectations about the timing and extent of a possible Federal Reserve interest rate cut. At a press conference on Tuesday, Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, did not provide clear guidance on the possible timing of rate cuts, emphasizing that monetary policy should remain accommodative for longer. "The market is under pressure on multiple fronts: Inflation remains above expectations, forecasts for rate cuts are weakening, and geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, are rising," said Anthony Salmbene, chief strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan."This gives traders a reason to pull back and gives markets some breathing room after five months of strong gains," he added. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) lost 45.66 points, down 0.12% at 37,753.31. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fell 29.20 points, or 0.58%, to 5,022.21, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 181.88 points, or 1.15. %, closing at 15,683.37. The S&P 500's extended four-day selloff was the longest in four months, a similar situation last seen on January 4th. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Michelle Bowman and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester are scheduled to speak on the same day. The Fed's latest Beige Book economic report showed economic activity picking up moderately from late February to early April, but companies expressed concerns about a possible slowdown in progress against inflation. Coming off a start to the year when the market was reacting heavily to the Fed's expected June rate cut, the likelihood of such a 25 basis point cut is now pegged at just 16.8%, and the chance of a July cut at 46%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool . Losses in equity markets were partially offset by a further fall in U.S. Treasury yields following a successful 20-year bond auction, with the 10-year yield at about 4.59%. United Airlines (UAL.O) shares jumped 17.45% on better-than-expected quarterly results, boosting the NYSE Arca Airline Index (.XAL) 3.82%. This was the largest daily increase since February 6. JB Hunt Transport Services (JBHT.O) fell 8.12%, the worst performer on the S&P 500, after the logistics company missed Wall Street's first-quarter estimates. US Bancorp (USB.N) shares fell 3.61% after the bank cut its interest earnings expectations for the year and reported a 22% decline in first-quarter profit. Tensions remained high in the Middle East region as difficult ceasefire negotiations in Gaza continued, while the international community awaited Israel's possible response to Iran's missile strike over the weekend. European share markets rose marginally after sharp losses, helped by impressive financial results from consumer companies, while investors kept a close eye on developments in the Middle East. Europe's STOXX 600 stock index (.STOXX) was slightly firmer, up 0.06%, while the MSCI global index of shares around the world (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.34%. Shares in emerging markets registered a rise of 0.36%. MSCI's Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index .MIAPJ0000PUS closed up 0.38%, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 lost 1.32%. U.S. Treasury yields fell, ending last week's selloff that pushed benchmark yields to their highest since November after the Federal Reserve reconsidered the need to cut interest rates. Prices for benchmark 10-year notes rose to 18/32, pushing yields down to 4.5832% from 4.657% late Tuesday.Prices for 30-year bonds also increased to 27/32, cutting yields to 4.7012% from 4.757% last week. The dollar weakened for the first time in six days against a basket of global currencies, retreating from a five-month high as investors settled for a pause in the Federal Reserve's expected rate-cutting cycle. The dollar index (.DXY) was down 0.28%, while the euro rose 0.5% to $1.067. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.25% to 154.35 against the US dollar, while the British pound sterling rose 0.22% to trade at $1.2451. Oil prices came under pressure, falling in response to significant levels of commercial inventories in the United States and expectations of weaker demand in light of weakening economic data from China, allaying concerns about possible supply disruptions due to geopolitical instability. US WTI crude oil fell 3.13% to $82.69 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 3.03% to close at $87.29 per barrel. Gold retreated from its previous gains as falling interest rate expectations reduced the appeal of the safe-haven asset. The price of gold in the spot market decreased by 0.4% to $2,372.38 per ounce. On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered gainers by a ratio of 1.1 to 1. On the Nasdaq, the ratio was 1.54 to 1. The NYSE recorded 21 new highs and 103 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 240 new lows. Trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 10.8 billion shares, slightly below the average of 11.05 billion shares over the past 20 trading[…]

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday April 18 2024.

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:22 pm

Even though currently on the 4-hour chart the Nasdaq 100 index has a Death Cross crossing between the 50 and 200 MAs, the appearance of the Descending Broadening Wedge pattern and the deviation between price movements and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator confirms that in the near future #NDX has the potential to be corrected upwards during The current decline does not fall below level 17124.2, so #NDX has the potential to strengthen again to level 17811.0 as the main target and if momentum and volatility support it, it is not impossible that level 18162.6 will be the next target to be achieved.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of GBP/USD Main Currency Pairs,Thursday April 18 2024.

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:22 pm

Based on what can be seen on the daily chart, the main currency pair GBP/USD seems that in the near future the Cable has the potential to strengthen upwards again, where this is confirmed by the appearance of a Failing Wedge pattern which also at the same time price movements are stuck at the level of the Bullish Fair Value Gap area so that as long as there is no sustained weakening where the 1.2264 level is broken below, GBP/USD has the potential to strengthen again to the 1.2708 level as the main target and the 1.2892 level as the next target to be aimed at if the momentum and volatility also support it.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trade Balance. Switzerland, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on Trade Balance in Switzerland will be published. This indicator captures the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The indicator is projected to decrease from the current 3.662 billion francs to 3.220 billion francs, which may put pressure on the exchange rate of the Swiss national currency. Read more

Forecast for AUD/USD on April 18, 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 20:12 pm

AUD/USDThe Australian dollar has recovered its losses from Wednesday and it seems that it will continue to rise towards 0.6480. However, today's report showed Australian unemployment ticked up to 3.8% from 3.7% in February.The Marlin oscillator has slowed down its upward movement on the daily chart. The price may not reach the target level of 0.6480.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator managed to enter the positive territory but it appears that it intends to return back below the zero line soon.The target level of 0.6480, reinforced by the MACD indicator line, serves as the limit for the corrective rise. If the price consolidates below the support at 0.6410, the price could fall to 0.6273 - the low of October 26, 2023.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for GBP/USD on April 18, 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 20:12 pm

GBP/USDYesterday, the British pound failed to settle above the level of 1.2427 and rose by 28 pips while the dollar temporarily showed broad weakness.The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the upper half of its own descending channel. Another drop below the support at 1.2427 makes it possible for the price to reach the target of 1.2370. The pair can correct higher once the price surpasses yesterday's peak at 1.2480 and moves towards the support area of February and March (1.2515/30).On the 4-hour chart, the price continues to consolidate above the level of 1.2427. During this time, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has entered the uptrend territory. Perhaps it is time for it to move downwards.If the upward movement persists, the bulls will face a serious challenge in fighting the MACD line (1.2497), which coincides with the April 15 high. Consolidation below the support level paves the way for the price to reach the nearest target at 1.2370.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 20:12 pm

EUR/USDYesterday, the euro was up 0.49%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.58%, gold fell 1.04%, and yields on US government bonds decreased. Even Israel's statement about a pending "retaliatory" strike against Iran did not dampen such a risky rise in the euro.We believe that the euro has used up all its strength. The single currency rose above the range of 1.0636/56, but it may return to this mark by today as representatives of the FOMC will speak in the evening (officials are not expected to show a dovish stance) and the Unemployment Claims data will also be released. Another drop below the lower boundary of the range at 1.0636 will open up the target of 1.0567.On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has entered the positive territory. The sharp rise is caused by the price breaking above strong technical resistance. The MACD indicator line marks the limit of the corrective movement, which is around the level of 1.0700. It may not reach the MACD line as the price's growth above the range and the oscillator's rise above the zero line seems to be a false move.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for EUR/USD on April 18. Euro has fallen into a new flat

Apr 17, 2024 | 18:03 pm

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M EUR/USD traded mostly sideways with low volatility on Wednesday. The low market activity can be attributed to the weak fundamental and macroeconomic background. There were no significant events during the day. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech on Tuesday evening, and he said there's been a "lack of further progress" on tackling the record-high inflation rates in the US. In our opinion, this means that the central bank will not lower rates in June, as we have repeatedly warned you.Powell's speech itself did not trigger any market reaction, and the dollar did not rise as it should have. Nevertheless, the fundamental background works in the dollar's favor. Therefore, we expect EUR/USD to fall further. This week, we see that the bears have decided to take a break after the sharp decline the previous weeks, but bulls lack the strength to start a minor correction. We believe that this is logical, considering the latest US macro data and the fact that the Fed is almost guaranteed not to lower the rate in June.No trading signals were formed on Wednesday. The price remains below the 1.0658-1.0669 area, and each rebound from it is a sell signal with good profit potential. However, the price barely reached this area by the evening. You may consider short positions if there is a rebound from it overnight or in the morning. But there were no trading signals.COT report: The latest COT report is dated April 9th. The net position of non-commercial traders has been bullish for quite some time. Basically, the number of long positions in the market is higher than the number of short positions. However, at the same time, the net position of non-commercial traders (red line) has been decreasing in recent months, while that of commercial traders (blue line) has been increasing. This shows that market sentiment is turning bearish, as speculators continue to sell the euro. Furthermore, we don't see any fundamental factors that can support the euro's strength, while technical analysis also suggests a downtrend. Three descending trend lines on the weekly chart indicate that there's a good chance of continuing the decline.At present, the red and blue lines are moving towards each other (indicating a trend reversal after a rise). Therefore, we believe that the euro will fall further. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the non-commercial group decreased by 12,800, while the number of short positions decreased by 28,700. Accordingly, the net position increased by 15,900. Overall, both the euro and the net position continue to decline. The number of buy contracts is higher than the number of sell contracts among non-commercial traders by only 32,700 (previously 31,000).Analysis of EUR/USD 1H On the 1-hour chart, EUR/USD resumed its downward trend but has remained in a flat phase for several consecutive days. Since expectations for a Fed rate cut in 2024 have significantly grown smaller, the US dollar can and should continue to rise for a couple more months at least. Especially in light of the upcoming ECB rate cut in June. Practically all the factors suggest downward movement for the pair. The market needs to take a break for some time, but we do not expect upward movements to be stronger than the correction.On April 18, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0530, 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0836, 1.0886, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0754) and Kijun-sen (1.0679) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be taken into account when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 15 pips. This will protect you against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.On Thursday, there are no significant events scheduled in the European Union, and the US will only publish a few minor reports. These are the number of initial jobless claims and the number of new home sales. Both reports have extremely low chances of triggering a market reaction of more than 20 pips. It seems we are in for another, fourth consecutive "boring day."Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Outlook for GBP/USD on April 18. Pound was not impressed by the inflation data

Apr 17, 2024 | 18:03 pm

Analysis of GBP/USD 5M GBP/USD continued to trade sideways on Wednesday. Volatility remains weak, and traders took a break after leaving the 4-month sideways channel. The price is currently 80 pips below the channel where it spent almost half a year. Therefore, we still expect the pound to fall, and take note that there has always been a reason to sell the pound since three months ago.Yesterday, the UK released its inflation report for March. It's hard to say if it pleased or disappointed traders. Judging by their reaction, they were pleased, but only for a brief moment. The pound managed to rise by 50 pips as inflation decreased less than forecasted. However, in general, this doesn't change anything. UK inflation is already lower than US inflation, which means the Bank of England may move to lower the key rate faster than the Federal Reserve. Consequently, the British currency, which was already expected to decline, even has more reasons to move lower. However, the market, as before, is in no hurry to sell the pound for dollars. Perhaps the BoE is still secretly conducting interventions.The trading signals on Wednesday were strange. At the very beginning of the European session, a sell signal was formed, but it should not have been executed as the UK inflation report was scheduled to be released in 15 minutes. When it was published, the price settled above the range of 1.2429-1.2445, and this signal could have been executed with a long position. However, the pair did not sharply rise, and the trade closed at breakeven with a Stop Loss. During the US session, the pair bounced off the level of 1.2445, but the upward movement was even weaker. Therefore, there were no profits on Wednesday since the movements were too weak.COT report: COT reports on the British pound show that the sentiment of commercial traders has frequently changed in recent months. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly intersect and, in most cases, remain close to the zero mark. According to the latest report on the British pound, the non-commercial group closed 18,400 buy contracts and 3,200 short ones. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 15,200 contracts in a week. The fundamental background still does not provide a basis for long-term purchases of the pound sterling, and the currency finally has a real chance to end the flat period. The trend line on the 24-hour TF clearly indicates what trend we are currently in.The non-commercial group currently has a total of 80,000 buy contracts and 51,700 sell contracts. The bulls no longer have a significant advantage. Therefore, the pound has a huge potential to fall. We can only hope that inflation in the UK will not start to accelerate, or that the Bank of England will not intervene.Analysis of GBP/USD 1H On the 1H chart, GBP/USD has left the sideways channel of 1.25-1.28. A downtrend may resume, and the pair has the potential to fall by at least 400-500 pips. The fundamental and macroeconomic background continues to support the dollar, as the US economy is much stronger than the UK, and the Fed keeps pushing back its first rate cut. As a result, even the BoE may lower its key rate sooner, and this will weigh on the pound.As of April 18, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2215, 1.2269, 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2786, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987. The Senkou Span B line (1.2610) and the Kijun-sen line (1.2490) lines can also serve as sources of signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to breakeven if the price has moved in the intended direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, so this should be taken into account when determining trading signals.On Thursday, there are no important events scheduled in the UK, and the US will only release secondary reports. Therefore, it is more likely that the flat will persist today, and volatility will be very low again. However, for now, the pound maintains a downward trend.Description of the chart:Support and resistance levels are thick red lines near which the trend may end. They do not provide trading signals;The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, plotted to the 1H timeframe from the 4H one. They provide trading signals;Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price bounced earlier. They provide trading signals;Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns;Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size for each category of traders;The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD. Correction or trend reversal?

Apr 17, 2024 | 17:32 pm

The GBP/USD pair shows that it is willing to fight, as it attempts to start a bullish correction. The bulls are not only counting on the greenback's weakness, but are also relying on the UK inflation report. The fact that inflation did not fall as expected made it possible for the bulls to push the pair to the boundaries of the 1.25 mark, although, in my opinion, the pound has no grounds to sustain an upward trend. On the one hand, all components of the inflation data came out in the "green". But on the other hand, inflation in the UK continues to slow. Therefore, the current rise in GBP/USD should be viewed with a dose of skepticism. Especially since it seems illogical for the greenback to show broad weakness. Most likely, this is a technical correction, as many fundamental factors continue to work in favor of the dollar. For instance, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the assumptions that the central bank will not lower rates in the near future. After his comments, the likelihood of maintaining the status quo at the June meeting increased to 86%. As for the prospects of the May meeting, market participants are 99% confident that the Fed will maintain a wait-and-see position.In other words, the current fundamental conditions do not support a significant drop in the dollar. Therefore, GBP/USD bulls cannot fully rely on the greenback - sooner or later, the correction will end, and the dollar will pull the pair down again.As for the latest UK inflation report, here too, "not everything is so straightforward."The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 3.2% in March, against an expected decline to 3.1%. On the one hand, the indicator was in the "green," but on the other hand, the CPI slowed down again. The reading was the lowest since September 2021. The indicator has been gradually declining since February 2023.The core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, dropped to 4.2% in March. Again, most experts expected a more significant decline (to 4.1% on an annual basis). However, firstly, the core CPI has been actively decreasing for the past two months (for comparison: in January, this indicator was at 5.1%), and secondly, the March result set a multi-month low. 4.1% is the weakest growth rate since January 2022.Another important point that needs to be mentioned separately: as of March, the growth in service prices slowed down. To only a small extent (from 6.1% to 6%), but this is quite important in light of the recent statements from the Bank of England (many central bank members have focused their attention on this component of the inflation report).The inflation rate for the Retail Price Index (RPI), which employers use when discussing wage issues, decreased to 4.3% on an annual basis, against an expected decline to 4.2%. And here, a similar picture emerges. In fact, the indicator set a multi-year low in March (the lowest growth rate since August 2021). Moreover, the RPI has been consistently decreasing for the past 7 months.Another inflation indicator, the Producer Price Index (PPI), remained in negative territory both on a monthly (-0.1%) and on an annual basis (-2.5%).Take note that the UK also released its wage data, reflecting a slowdown in the pace of wage growth excluding bonuses. Thus, average earnings excluding bonuses in the UK grew by 6.0% in February compared to 6.1% in January. This indicator demonstrates a consistent downward trend for six consecutive months.All this indicates that inflation in the UK continues to slow down, making it possible for the BoE to consider lowering interest rates in the foreseeable future. Currently, there is no consensus on when exactly the central bank will take the first step in this direction. According to most economists surveyed by Sky News, the central bank will cut rates as early as the June meeting. According to some other analysts, the BoE will not rush with this decision until August.At the end of March, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has signaled markets are right to expect more than one interest rate cut this year. At the same time, he said he is increasingly confident that inflation is heading towards the Bank's target. In my opinion, the latest inflation report fits into the framework of these expectations. Inflation is consistently decreasing, although not at an accelerated pace.Thus, the current fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair does not support sustainable and significant price growth. A kind of marker here is the level of 1.2500 (the upper Bollinger Bands line, coinciding with the Kijun-sen line on the 4-hour chart). If buyers do not overcome this resistance level in the short term, sellers may regain the initiative. Bearish targets are located at 1.2400 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the H4 timeframe) and 1.2350 (the middle Bollinger Bands line on the MN timeframe).The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Employment Change. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March employment data will be published in Australia, recording the change in the number of employed citizens. The indicator is expected to decrease from 116.5 thousand to 7.2 thousand. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Unemployment Rate. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in Australia, which records the percentage of the number of registered unemployed over the age of 18 to the total working-age population. The indicator is expected to adjust from 3.7% to 3.9%. Read more

Powell made a bold point, while Bailey did not report anything important

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:05 pm

Tuesday was interesting not only with a whole series of interesting reports in the US and the UK but also because of the speeches by Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell. The reports turned out to be quite dull and secondary, with the market hardly reacting to them. In general, the market ignored the speeches of both Powell and Bailey, with the only difference being that the governor of the Bank of England didn't provide any interesting information to the market, while Powell did.Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said there's been a "lack of further progress" on tackling the record-high inflation rates in the US. It's strange that it took Powell so long to understand the obvious. Most likely, optimistic expectations, in which both the market and the Fed itself are drowning in, played a role. Since the end of 2023, the market has been expecting the first rate cut by the Fed, and it just can't grasp a simple thing: if inflation doesn't decrease, the FOMC won't vote for rate cuts. The situation in America is more than favorable from an economic perspective. GDP is growing, the labor market is stable, and unemployment is low. So why rush events? After all, there are no particular deadlines for rate cuts. The Fed may start lowering rates next year, and nothing will change. Some analysts may say that the longer the rate remains at its peak, the more the US economy may slow down. This is true, but the past year has shown us that the slowdown is quite mild and manageable. Therefore, the US central bank can afford to wait under the current circumstances.Powell basically said the same thing. He highlighted the strength of the American economy and the stability of the labor market, implying that there is no reason to panic about high inflation. The Consumer Price Index stubbornly resists the Fed's actions, but sooner or later, it will retreat while the hawkish policy is maintained. This only means one thing: the US dollar should rise further, and the market should increase demand for it. Such a scenario fully corresponds to the current wave layout. Therefore, I expect both instruments to fall further. It's unlikely to be a daily decline, but gradually, the euro and the pound should move lower, with the euro likely to be affected more.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0463 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. The sell signal we need near 1.0880 was formed (an attempt at a breakthrough failed). Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will have started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is finally ready to build a downward wave.Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The FOMC will not lower rates in 2024

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:05 pm

As we have already mentioned, it no longer makes sense to expect a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. The latest inflation report exceeded the target mark almost twice. It will take at least 5-6 months for inflation to slow down to at least 2.5%, so that the Fed could finally start discussing monetary policy easing. And it should be clear that 5-6 months will only work if inflation starts to slow down in April. But what if it doesn't? The European Central Bank has reached an inflation rate of 2.4% y/y and they're not even in a hurry to lower interest rates. In June, when the first policy easing is planned, inflation in the EU could already reach 2% or slightly more. Therefore, we can understand the logic of the central bank: the rate should be lowered when inflation is very close to the target mark. That is, around 2%. The thing is, America is not even close to such results.Following the latest US inflation report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday, major companies and banks immediately revised their forecasts for FOMC policy easing in 2024. Now, Bank of America expects the rate to be cut 1-2 times at best this year, Barclays reduces its Fed rate cut view to one in 2024, and Societe Generale no longer sees a cut in Fed Funds until 2025. Quite a stark difference from market expectations at the beginning of the year, when 5-6 rate cuts were forecasted, isn't it? Based on the latest information, my conclusions remain the same as before. I only become more confident with each passing day. Demand for the US dollar should increase, and now it should increase for longer than before, as the Fed will keep the rate at its peak longer than the market previously assumed. There should be enough time for both instruments to complete their waves 3 or C. It is quite possible that the downtrend segments will even take on a five-wave pattern, but it is still too early to say. We need to see convincing waves 3 or C, and I can see that the pound is still reluctant to fall. It is easier to expect a continued downward movement from the euro.Wave analysis for EUR/USD:Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that a bearish wave set is being formed. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are complete, so in the near future, I expect an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c to form with a significant decline in the instrument. I am considering short positions with targets near the 1.0463 mark, as the news background works in the dollar's favor. The sell signal we need near 1.0880 was formed (an attempt at a breakthrough failed). Wave analysis for GBP/USD:The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument suggests a decline. I am considering selling the instrument with targets below the 1.2039 level, because I believe that wave 3 or c will have started to form. A successful attempt to break 1.2472, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates that the market is finally ready to build a downward wave.Key principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to work with, and they often bring changes.If you are not confident about the market's movement, it would be better not to enter it.We cannot guarantee the direction of movement. Don't forget about Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Will the euro take a risk?

Apr 17, 2024 | 15:57 pm

The IMF raises its GDP forecast for the US economy for 2024 by a significant 0.6 percentage points, to 2.7%. Goldman Sachs highlights the US as the only G10 nation where inflation is accelerating, suggesting potential for continued growth in the USD. American exceptionalism, coupled with the Federal Reserve's intention to keep the federal funds interest rate at 5.5% longer than expected, creates a strong foundation for the downward movement of EUR/USD. However, at the slightest pretext, the bulls indicate readiness to fight.Goldman Sachs is slightly mistaken. The US is not the only country where inflation is surprising Bloomberg experts. UK inflation fell less than expected in March. Consumer prices rose 3.2%, prompting the futures market to push back rate cut bets for the Bank of England. Derivatives suggest that the rate will only be lowered at one meeting, with a 50% chance of it happening again in December. The pound strengthened against major world currencies, pulling EUR/USD upwards.Inflation dynamics in developed countriesBloomberg economists say that inflation in the UK is on course to fall below 2% in coming months, and the BoE will likely start easing in the summer. However, it no longer expects an extended period of prices below the BoE's target. All the bulls' efforts to counterattack are doomed to fail.Indeed, when the eurozone economy is poised to grow by only 0.8%, according to the IMF, and inflation slowed to 2.4% in March, it is difficult to count on a significant EUR/USD correction. Especially since members of the Governing Council continue to insist on the start of the European Central Bank's monetary policy easing cycle in June. For instance, Mario Centeno said it's about time to change the monetary policy. The ECB will need to make further reductions to interest rates this year and next, following an initial move in June, according to Francois Villeroy de Galhau. Christine Lagarde asserts that in the absence of shocks, the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term.IMF forecasts for various countriesThus, the ECB is ready to start in early summer, and the futures market is pricing in expectations of three acts of policy easing in 2024 with a small probability of a fourth. Derivatives markets expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in September, with more than a 50% chance of a second step in this direction. However, it's quite possible that the different pace of policy easing is already factored into EUR/USD quotes. The main currency pair needs a fresh driver to break out of the consolidation range of 1.06-1.07.Will it be a stock market crash or an escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East? Or, on the contrary, will the rise of the S&P 500 and global risk appetite driven by strong corporate earnings push the euro higher?Technically, on the EUR/USD daily chart, the bulls are winning the battle for the key pivot level of 1.0635, which increases the risk of updating intraday highs at 1.0650 and 1.0665. A confident breakthrough could provide a basis for short-term buying.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECBs Lagarde says exchange rates matter and it leads to a rotation higher

Apr 17, 2024 | 12:54 pm

ECB's Lagarde said that:We monitor the exchange rateIt is obvious that exchange rates may have an impact on inflationThe truisms are not anything new, but given more illiquid afternoon markets, it did give a minor boost to the beaten down EURUSD. The move to the upside took the price into an briefly above a swing area between 1.0655 and 1.0675. The high price today has reached 1.0679. The current price trades at 1.0670.Technically if the price were to move above the 1.0675 level and stay above, the story comes against the Lowes from February at 1.0694 followed by the broken 61.8% at 1.07133. There is a swing area between 1.0722 and 1.07314 which would be another key target on increased buying. With the ECB looking to cut rate in June, and the Fed looking to put off cutting rates to later in the year, it does give the nod to selling the EURUSD pair. However, you never know when a central bank comment may give seller some cause for pause. The technicals will help tell the story as it is developed from the news headlines.The video above explains it all. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Beige Book. USA, 20:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 09:00 am

At 20:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed) will publish the Beige Book economic report. It characterizes the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and contains information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market, and other indicators at the moment. The document is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Read more

NZDUSD corrects modestly higher with more work to do to give buyers more confidence

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:39 am

The NZDUSD is higher on the day, but the move is still modest and there is work to do, to give the buyers more confidence after the recent move lower. IN this video, I outline the technical levels in play and explain what needs to be done, to give the dip buyers more confidence (or not). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]

USDCAD moves lower w/ the modest USD weakness today. Moves toward support target at 1.3765

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:23 am

The USDCAD has moved lower in trading today on USD weakness. In the process, the pair is moving away from topside resistance target between 1.3839 and 1.3855. The downside support comes near the 100-day moving average 1.3765. Devil also corresponds with the high of a swing area down to 1.37346.In this video, I outline the technical levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZ dollar rebounds on sticky inflation report

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:16 am

The New Zealand dollar has bounced back with strong gains on Wednesday, ending a nasty slide of 3.4% which started last week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5907, up 0.45%. New Zealand inflation falls less than expected New Zealand’s CPI continued to ease in the first quarter but the markets were […]

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 18:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:00 am

At 18:00 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech, in which investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more

USDCHF battles at key moving averages, hinting at short-term bias

Apr 17, 2024 | 06:55 am

The USDCHF as it drifted lower in trading today. Yields are down. The market digested the Fed comments yesterday. Nevertheless, the Swiss National Bank did cut rates at their last meeting. The Federal Reserve comments from Fed's Powell and Fed Gov. Jefferson yesterday suggested the Fed is on hold for an extended period of time. That should support the USDCHF all things equal.From a technical perspective however, the price is back below its 100-day moving average of 0.91216, but above it to hundred hour moving average 0.90897 (and moving higher). Those levels will help to define the short-term bias for the pair. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart the FX trading day for April 17 w/ at technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

Apr 17, 2024 | 06:15 am

In the kickstart video for April 17, 2024, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective and outline the bias, risks, targets, and stories for each. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading up and down this week, but staying below a swing area between 1.0655 to 1.0675. With the Fed shifting to waiting for longer and the ECB looking toward a June cut, it should keep a lid on the pair. However, you never know the story may change. So understanding the technicals in play is important.USDJPY: The USDJPY continues its move to the upside trading at the highest level since 1990. The caveat is the Bank of Japan may come in to limit the upside via intervention. Traders are looking at the 155.00 area as a ceiling/potential intervention area. Having said that, the buyers at the 38.2% retracement of the last move up (from Friday's low) comes in at 153.94. It would take a move below that level to give the sellers additional confidence. Absent that and the buyers are still winning and in full control.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has been trading above and below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 2023 low. That level comes in at 1.24646. On the downside, a swing area between 1.2427 and 1.2449 needs to be rebroken to increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 06:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.48; (R1) 155.04; More… Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside with 153.89 minor support intact. USD/JPY is still in favor to rise towards 155.20 fibonacci projection level. But upside could be limited there, at least on first attempt, to bring pull back. On the downside, below 153.89 will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 06:08 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9132; (R1) 0.9152; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9151 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 06:04 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0625; (R1) 1.0648; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 1.0601 could extend further. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:37 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2397; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2463; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 1.2402 is extending, but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2404 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Crude oil inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction from the current 5.841M barrels to 0.900M barrels is expected, supporting oil quotes. Read more

USD/JPY Analysis: Strong Buying Saturation Levels

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:29 am

The US dollar remained near its highest levels in several months against the pound, euro, and other major currencies after the release of more strong economic data.

The NZD is the strongest, and the USD is the reduced as the NA session begins

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:09 am

The NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North Ameican session begins. Yesterday, Chair Powell (and Fed Gov. Jefferson) declined to state that rate cuts were likely to be appropriate this year (omitting is just as good as saying it), which was a shift in the mindset of the Fed. The Chair and Vice Chair stated that inflation was not showing improvement. The market now has September as the month that the Fed may cut rates. In the European morning session today, the U.K.'s consumer price inflation fell to 3.2% YoY, marking the lowest rate in over two years, and lower than February's 3.4%. The reduction was primarily due to a slower rise in food prices compared to the previous year. However, fuel prices did increase. Core inflation also declined to 4.2% from February's 4.5%. Earlier this week, employment data showed a slowdown in core wage growth. The Bank of England has kept its interest rates at their highest since 2008. BOEs Bailey recently said that the U.K. economy is nearing a stage where interest rates could begin to be reduced, observing strong signs of disinflation at full employment. The weekly US mortgage data was released. Applications (and all of the other components) rose despite higher rates:. Mortgage Refinance Index: Increased to 500.7 from 498.3 (Stronger)Purchase Index: Rose to 145.6 from 138.7 (Stronger)US Mortgage Market Index: Grew to 202.1 from 195.7 (Stronger)Mortgage Applications: Jumped to 3.3% from 0.1% (Significantly stronger)30-Year Mortgage Rate: Increased to 7.13% from 7.01% Affordability is at its lowest level since 1980.US stocks are higher. US yield are little changed. In Israel, there was quiet. Yesterday, threats were made by Israel of a retaliatory strike in some form or fashion against Iran.Crude oil today is lower. The private inventory data released late yesterday showed a stronger than expected builder 4.09M barrels, but gasoline and distilates both showed declines. The EIA will release their inventory data at 10:30 AM with expectations of a buildup of 1.373M crude oil stocks. Gasoline is expected to show a drawdown of -0.889M. The private data yesterday came at:A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $0.57 or -0.67% at $84.80. At this time yesterday, the price was at a $84.96Gold is trading up $5.16 or 0.21% at $2387.80. At this time yesterday, the price was $2372.82Silver is trading up $0.40 or 1.41% at $28.46. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.26.Bitcoin currently trades at $62,846 – not far off of the level at this time yesterday. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,980In the premarket, the major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 85.03 points. Yesterday, the index gained 63.86 points or 0.17% at 37798.98 (thanks to a 6% gain in UnitedHealth).S&P futures are implying a gain of 15.34 points. Yesterday, the index fell minus 10.41.4 -0.21% at 505140Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 45.10 points. Yesterday, the index fell -19.77 points or -0.12% at 15865.25The European indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.47%France CAC , +1.29%UK FTSE 100, was 0.66%Spain's Ibex, +1.34%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.07% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower:Japan's Nikkei 225, but is 1.32%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +2.14%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.02%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.09%Looking at the US debt market, yields are marginally higher. Yesterday yields moved higher on the back of flight to safety flows reversal, and then stronger retail sales2-year yield 4.964%, unchanged. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.944%5-year yield 4.674%, -0.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.658%10-year yield 4.651%, -0.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.682%30-year yield 4.757% unchanged. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.752%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads, the yield curve statement over the last 24 hours:The 2-10 year spread is at -31.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -30.1 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -20.8 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -19.2 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:06 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day mostly flat as the market continues to remain on the backfoot waiting for the Israeli retaliation against Iran. The rising Treasury yields and the stronger US Dollar are also putting a lid on the gains. Fed Chair Powell yesterday didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front, but he did state that if inflation were to persist, they would just hold rates steady for longer. This might give the market some relief as the bar for rate hikes is set very high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the first key support level at 15929 following the hot US Retail Sales and the geopolitical news. The price ranged for the entire trading session yesterday as the risk sentiment remained negative. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the low to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking the low to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15453.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the 3-week long range and triggered more bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively to target a break below the 15929 support. After the breakout of the rising wedge, the market started to rollover from the highs and the chances of seeing a correction all the way down to the base of the pattern at 14477 increases by the day. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. Alternatively, the sellers can wait for the price to break the low to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just one notable report left tomorrow as we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Analysis: Upside Bounce Opportunities Still Weak

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:49 am

According to this week's trading, the pound sterling fell against the euro and the US dollar after Britain announced an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate.

GBP/USD rises as UK inflation higher than expected

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:46 am

The British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation eased to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% in February […]

EUR/USD Analysis: Eyes on Inflation Figures and ECB Policy

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:39 am

Ahead of the release of inflation figures for the eurozone, expectations have increased about the proximity of the date of cutting interest rates with the exclusion of the US Federal Reserve.

Gold Analysis: Is Gold's Bullish Run Over?

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:26 am

Since the start of trading this week, gold prices have retreated from their record high set on Friday, when they climbed towards the $2,431 an ounce resistance level.

Copper Technical Analysis

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:03 am

Copper continues to be supported by favourable fundamentals although the latest rally is starting to look a bit exhausted. The supporting factors include the recent beat in the Chinese PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, with the latter jumping into expansion for the first time since 2022. Moreover, we have the PBoC expected to deliver more policy support this year while the other central banks continue to foresee rate cuts at some point although they are willing to keep rates higher for longer if needed. The current environment should be good for growth, so the things to watch will be signs of marked deceleration in growth indicators or increased risks of rate hikes. Copper Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Copper has been struggling to break the key 4.35 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 4.18 level where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the red 21 moving average and the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position for a drop into the trendline and eventually target a break below it. Copper Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would come right around the base of the divergent formation near the 4.18 support, although the price will need first to break below the black minor trendline to confirm it. Copper Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price rejected the 4.35 level and it’s now falling back to the minor trendline. The buyers will have another opportunity to step in around the trendline to position for a break above the 4.35 resistance. If the price were to break lower though, the sellers will gain control and take the price into the 4.18 support. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:52 am

The recent price action in Crude Oil indicates that the market needs some rest as we haven’t seen a sustained rally despite the big geopolitical risk in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Overall, the fundamentals remain supportive for the market as we’ve been seeing a pickup in economic activity, although the expectations for rate cuts continue to dwindle. The technicals will be important to monitor as a drop below the key $83 support zone could start to signal a turnaround in the bullish trend.WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil got stuck in a consolidation lately with a slight bearish tilt as the price continues to pull back into the key $83 support zone. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in as they will also find the confluence of the trendline, the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop back into the lows. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is breaking below another minor trendline which should see some sellers piling in to target a drop into the major trendline for a pullback. There’s not much else we can glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation that’s been going on since last Monday. We can also see that we have a downward counter-trendline where the sellers piled in for a better entry to target a drop into the major trendline. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: High UK CPI Makes Consolidation Less Bearish

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:45 am

Potential short trade from $1.2500 area looks interesting.

EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish exhaustion condition detected after 2-month of rallies

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:24 am

A bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is at risk of shaping a short-term mean reversion decline within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch […]

GBPJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 17, 2024 | 01:33 am

GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The market expects the first rate cut in August.JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading indicator for National CPI, came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.GBPJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY bounced on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around the lower bound of the rising channel and extended the rally into the 193.00 handle. The buyers are targeting the upper bound of the channel around the 195.00 handle, but they will need to break the cycle high first to extend the rally further. The sellers, on the other hand, might want to step in around the cycle high with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel targeting a break below it. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price is now at a key resistance zone around the 192.85 level where the pair got rejected from several times. The UK data has been pretty strong and continues to point to higher rates for longer for the BoE, so the buyers have the fundamentals on their side to try a breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in again at this resistance to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the pair printing higher lows recently which points to bullish momentum. If the breakout were to fail and the price were to fall below the black trendline, the sellers will regain control and push the price back into the lower bound of the channel as the buyers will likely fold at that point. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI and the UK Retail Sales. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 17, 2024 | 00:10 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. EURThe ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and opened the door for a rate cut in June.The recent Eurozone CPI missed expectations.The labour market remains historically tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.The latest Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping further in contraction.The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke the key 1.07 support and extended the drop into the 1.06 handle as the divergence between the Fed and the ECB became stronger. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.07 handle where they will find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the moving averages. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above that resistance zone to start targeting new highs. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has started to diverge with the MACD around the 1.06 handle. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback after such a huge selloff. The buyers might start to pile in around these levels with a defined risk below the 1.06 handle to position for a rally into the 1.07 resistance. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the divergence with the MACD and we can also notice that the recent price action formed what looks like a descending triangle. The price can break on either side of the pattern but what follows next is generally a sustained move in the direction of the breakout. In this case, if we get a break to the downside, we can expect the sellers to increase the bearish bets and take the pair into the 1.05 handle. On the other hand, if we get a break to the upside, the buyers should increase the bullish bets into the 1.07 resistance. Upcoming EventsThis week the only notable report left is the US Jobless Claims figures tomorrow. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Consumer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index of EU countries will be published. It is the main indicator of inflation and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc. It has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may change from 0.6% to 0.8% MoM and from 2.6% to 2.4% YoY, while the core reading may rise from 0.7% to 1.1% MoM and decrease from 3.1% to 2.9% YoY. Read more

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 16, 2024 | 23:57 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0625; (R1) 1.0648; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.0601 temporary low. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Sell-Off Gains Steam

Apr 16, 2024 | 23:52 pm

The AUD/USD pair continued its freefall on Wednesday as the US dollar rally gained steam.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Outlook as BTC Halving Nears

Apr 16, 2024 | 23:20 pm

Bitcoin price continued its sell-off on Wednesday as bears attempted to push it to the crucial support level at $60,000.

USDCHF Technical Analysis

Apr 16, 2024 | 22:58 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CHFThe SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate to 1.50% vs. 1.75% prior.The latest Switzerland CPI missed expectations by a big margin.The Unemployment Rate remains steady at cycle lows.The Manufacturing PMI improved further while the Services PMI saw a big drop. Both the measures are in contraction.The market expects the SNB to cut rates again in June.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF has been consolidating around the key resistance at 0.9112. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4-hour TimeframeOn the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would stand right around the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but the price will first need to break below the 0.91 handle to confirm it. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1-hour TimeframeOn the 1-hour chart, we can see that the price has been ranging between the 0.91 support and the 0.9145 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to target a drop into the 0.90 handle. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Brief Rebound Likely as it Gets Overbought

Apr 16, 2024 | 22:54 pm

The EUR/USD exchange rate has crashed hard this week as investors predict that the Fed and the ECB will move in different directions this year.

Consumer price index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index will be published in the UK. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services (food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc.), and also has a significant impact on decisions on monetary policy. It may change from 3.4% to 3.1% YoY and from 0.6% to 0.7% MoM. Read more

Trade balance. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 14:50 pm

At 01:50 (GMT+2), March trade balance data will be published in Japan. This indicator records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods, and its increase is a positive factor for the yen. The negative dynamics may accelerate from −379.4B yen to −810.2B yen, putting pressure on the yen. Read more

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index will be published in New Zealand, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may increase from 0.5% to 0.6% QoQ and consolidate at 4.7% YoY. Read more

US major stock indices close mixed

Apr 16, 2024 | 13:22 pm

The major US stock indices are ending the day with mixed results. The Dow industrial average closed modestly higher helped by a surge in UnitedHealth. Its shares rose $23.26 or 5.22% to $468.89. The S&P and NASDAQ index both fell modestly. A snapshot of the market closes shows:Dow industrial average rose 63.84 points or 0.17% at 37798.98S&P index fell -10.41 points or -0.21% at 5051.40NASDAQ index fell -19.77 points or -0.12% at 15865.25.The small-cap Russell 2000 was the worst performer with a decline of -8.23 points or -0.42% at 1967.47.Technically looking at the S&P index, the low prices seen this week stalled near the 38.2% retracement and swing area between 5042.24 and 5056.92. Holding support against that level keeps the buyers in play. Moving below the 5042.24 level going forward, would likely lead to more selling/corrective momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Silver bounces off 200 hour MA on the last 2-tests

Apr 16, 2024 | 13:13 pm

The price of silver moved to a high on Friday at $29.79. That got within $0.30 of the 2021 high at $30.09. The 2020 high reached $29.86. So there are 3 highs from 3 different years with $0.30. Those highs are the highest since 2013. Getting above them would open the door to the upside. After reaching the high on Friday, the price started to rotate lower. That move day the price move below the 100 hour MA (blue line) and then the 38.2% of the move up from the March 2024 low (see hourly chart below). However, buyers came in against the 200-hour MA and bounced. The high price on Monday reached up to $29.01 before rotating back lower. Today, the price once again fell below the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below), but found willing buyers at the 200-hour MA for the 2nd time this week (green line on chart below). Once again, buyers leaned and pushed the price higher. So technically, the ceiling is clearly near $30. The technical support is near 200-hour MA (at $27.98). Those technical levels gives traders the targets that need to be broken to either increase the bullish bias (on a break above $30), OR give the sellers some confirmation and confidence on a break below the rising 200-hour MA.Be aware This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

USDCHF consolidates near highs

Apr 16, 2024 | 12:23 pm

The USDCHF has gone nearly an entire day now and only trades in a 31 pips trading range. The average over the last 22-trading days was nearly twice that amount at 60 pips. So buyers and sellers are sparring with each other. Neither one has landed anything close to a knockout blow.Looking at the hourly chart, the ups and downs has now allowed the 100-hour MA to catch up to the price. That MA is at 0.91239. The price is currently trading right around that level. On the downside, there is a swing level at 0.9112. Yes.... the price moved below the level on Friday and Thursday last week, but held the level on Wednesday last week, and again on Monday and Tuesday this week.On the topside, the 0.91469 to 0.9151 area is home to a number of different highs over the last 5 days. At some point, there will be a break and run. The buyers - given the right to left move higher over the last month+ - has the advantage. However, that does not mean a correction can't happen if the lower swing level is broken followed by a break of the 200-hour MA at 0.9081 level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The continuation of the correction from 3.034M barrels may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 am

The New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. USA, 19:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:15 am

At 19:15 (GMT+2), the head of the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed), Jerome Powell, will give a speech. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the American economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at the regulator’s further actions in the monetary policy. Read more

Canadian dollar extends losses as Canada’s inflation rises

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:16 am

The Canadian dollar is down for a fifth straight day and has slipped 1.9% during that time. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3840, up 0.37%. Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% Canada’s inflation rate for March rose to 2.9% y/y, ticking up from 2.8% in February and above the market forecast of […]

Industrial production. USA, 15:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in the United States. The indicator records changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country. Its calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 0.1% to 0.4% MoM, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Currency war and geopolitical risk are deadly concoctions for risk assets

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:00 am

The odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be forced to enact “beggar-thy-neighbour” typed monetary policies to deliberately weaken their respective currencies. […]

Housing starts. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present March data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month. It is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may decrease from 1.521M to 1.480M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Building permits. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the US government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the sector. It may change from 1.524M to 1.514M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more

Consumer price index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) in Canada, March data on the consumer price index will be published, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and also significantly influences the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. It may change from 0.3% to 0.7% MoM and from 2.8% to 3.1% YoY. Read more

GBP/USD dips after weak employment data

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:10 am

The British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job growth took a hard hit in the three months to February as […]

ZEW economic conditions. Germany, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the April index of current economic conditions in Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the prevailing sentiment among financial analysts in Germany, and the subject of the study is the most important indicators: inflation, interest rates, stock indices, exchange rates, and oil prices. It may continue its negative trend from −80.5 points to −82.0 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more

Trade balance. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the EU will publish February trade balance data, recording the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. It may increase from 11.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more

ZEW economic sentiment. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), the April EU business sentiment index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. It may rise from 33.5 points to 37.2 points, supporting the euro. Read more

Unemployment rate. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), February unemployment data will be published in the UK, recording the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may adjust from 3.9% to 4.0%. Read more

Claimant count. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the UK. The rate measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given month. It may change from 16.8K to 17.2K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Employment change 3M/3M. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK will publish February employment data for the previous three-month period, showing changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. It may continue its negative trend from –21.0K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Market Insights Podcast – Pause in oil rally, UK and Japan inflation, China Q1 GDP are the focus for this week

Apr 15, 2024 | 18:38 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, the possible scenarios on the trajectory oil prices after its 13% rally seen in the past month amid geopolitical tensions in Middle East with fears of tic-for-tact retaliation moves between Israel and Iran. Secondly, the adverse […]

Industrial production. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in China, reflecting changes in the volume of production of goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may decrease from 7.0% to 6.4% YoY, putting pressure on the yuan. Read more

Gross domestic product. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), Chinese data on Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) will be published. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, considering domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may consolidate at 1.0% QoQ and drop from 5.2% to 4.8% YoY. Read more

Retail sales. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be presented in China. The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). It may adjust from 5.5% to 5.1% YoY. Read more

Unemployment rate. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pm

At 04:00 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in China, reflecting the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may fall from 5.3% to 5.2%. Read more

GBP/USD eyes UK employment release

Apr 15, 2024 | 08:12 am

The British pound is steady on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.05%. US retail sales climb 0.7% US consumers continue to shop and spend as March retail sales was stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, up from a revised 0.9% gain in February and above the […]

Euro ends slide as industrial production rebounds

Apr 15, 2024 | 05:14 am

The euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low. Eurozone industrial production rebounded 0.8% m/m in February following […]

Retail Sales. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2) March data on retail sales will be published in the United States. The indicator captures the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on a sample of stores of different types and sizes, and is an important indicator of consumer spending with a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The value is expected to correct from 0.6% to 0.8% in March, while the core indicator will rise from 0.3% to 0.5%. Read more

NZ dollar slides to five-month low

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:13 am

The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after as sharp decline of 1% on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5945, up 0.14%. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as 0.5927 earlier, its lowest point since November 14. NZ Services PSI declines New Zealand’s services sector had a dismal March, […]

Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:12 am

Commitments of Traders aggregate net bullish open positions of large speculators in the Gold futures market have flashed a bearish contrarian condition. The recent rally in Gold (XAU/USD) has been primarily driven by an increase in geopolitical risk premium arising from Middle East tensions. A lack of fresh catalysts after the latest Iran retaliation offensive […]

Industrial Production. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 15, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2) February data on the volume of industrial production of eurozone countries will be published, which reflect changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. On an annualized basis, the figure is expected to correct from -6.7% to -2.9%, and on a monthly basis - from -3.2% to -1.8%, putting pressure on the euro's position. Read more

NZ dollar slips as manufacturing softens

Apr 12, 2024 | 06:02 am

The New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Friday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5956, down 0.68%. The US dollar has moved higher against the majors and NZD/USD has declined about 1% this week. NZ manufacturing PMI contracts for 13th straight month Manufacturing has been an Achilles heel for many of […]

Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pause

Apr 12, 2024 | 04:20 am

The euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. ECB holds rates, hints at a June cut The European Central […]

US DJIA Technical: Major US banks’ Q1 earnings in the focus over adverse macro factors

Apr 12, 2024 | 02:57 am

Three major US banks; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report their Q1 2024 earnings results today. JPMorgan Chase is ranked 13th in terms of component weightage in the DJIA. Analysts’ Q1 earnings estimates for these three US banks have been lowered which increases the possibility of positive earnings surprises. Technical analysis suggests a […]

Pound slips to 4.5-month low, UK GDP ticks higher

Apr 12, 2024 | 02:55 am

The British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.47%. The pound is down 1.1% this week and fell to 1.2489 earlier today, its lowest point since November 23. UK economy ekes out a 0.1% gain It wasn’t a spectacular GDP report but a gain is […]

Private Area Login

POPULAR MT4 TOOLS

Forex Analysis, Reviews, Signals and Forecasts

The Latest Forex Analysis and Reviews: The Ultimate Resource for Technical and Fundamental Analysis, Forex Signals, and Forex Forecasts.