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Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 02:39 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day positive amid a lack of bearish catalysts. It might have been one of those times when no news is good news as the geopolitical fears around the Israel-Iran escalation waned. It might also have been just a dead-cat bounce after an oversold market. Nevertheless, the US PMIs and the US PCE this week will be market moving catalysts, and it’s likely that more inflationary pressures could weigh on prices again given the recent shift in the Fed’s stance. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite yesterday bounced near the 15162 support and rallied into the 15453 resistance where we can also find the blue 8 moving average for confluence. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally back into the 15929 level. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rally into the 15453 resistance with the price rejecting the blue 8 moving average. There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we had a trendline defining the bearish momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. The price yesterday broke through it, which might be an early signal of a change in sentiment although we will need to see a continuation to confirm it. In fact, if the price were to fall back below the trendline, we can expect the sellers to pile in and position for a drop into new lows. Conversely, if the price were to continue higher, the buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the 15929 resistance. Upcoming EventsToday we have the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/CAD Forecast: Canadian Dollar Strengthens on Monday - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:38 am

The US dollar initially tried to rally against the Canadian dollar on Monday but gave back gains as it looks like we are going to continue to pullback.

EUR/GBP Forecast: Euro Punishes the British Pound - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:34 am

The euro is shot straight up in the air during the trading session on Monday, breaking well above the 200-Day EMA against the British pound.

DAX Forex Signal: DAX Shows Signs of Life - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:15 am

The German DAX gapped to the upside during the early hours on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to recover.

USDCAD Technical Analysis - We are near key resistance levels

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:12 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD came close to the top of the one-year range around the 1.3862 level but eventually rolled off back into the 1.37 handle. We can see that from a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.3620 level where we can find the confluence of the previous resistance turned support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the major trendline to turn the trend around and target a drop all the way back to the bottom of the range around the 1.3225 level. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price yesterday broke below the minor upward trendline turning the bias more bearish and opening the door for a drop into the 1.3620 support. We now have a minor downward trendline and the red 21 moving average defining the current bearish momentum. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 1.3620 support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into new highs. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have also the Fibonacci retracement levels on this timeframe adding some extra confluence to the bearish setup around the trendline. Watch out for the US Flash PMIs data today because it will be a market moving event.Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Flash PMIs. Tomorrow, we have the Canadian Retail Sales. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Silver Forecast: Silver Plunges to Kick off the Week - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 01:02 am

Silver markets have plunged drastically to kick off the week, as we have finally seen the lack of momentum take apart this market.

CAC Forecast: Starts off the Week with a Bang - 23 April 2024

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:55 am

The French CAC has been all over the place during the trading session on Monday, buyers were more than willing to step in and pick up the equity market in France.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 23, 2024 | 00:11 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY got stuck in some consolidation just beneath the 155.00 handle as the market might be awaiting some new catalyst to push into either direction. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support where we can also find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another trendline where the buyers can lean onto in case of a pullback. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 151.92 support zone and then target a break below it.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rangebound price action between the 153.90 support and the 154.80 resistance. We can expect the sellers to step in around the top of the range with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely pile in in case the price breaks higher, although they will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline. Upcoming EventsToday we get the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude the week with the BoJ Rate Decision, the Tokyo CPI and later in the day, the US PCE report. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:56 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.46; (P) 191.08; (R1) 191.84; More.. No change in GBP/JPY’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral as consolidations from 193.51 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 190.02 will indicate that it’s at least correcting the […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:54 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 164.55; (P) 164.82; (R1) 165.25; More… Range trading continues in EUR/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidation from 165.33 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.59 will argue that it’s at least correcting the […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:52 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8607; (P) 0.8626; (R1) 0.8645; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside and outlook is unchanged. Fall from 0.8764 has probably completed already. Further rally would be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8649). Decisive break there will solidify this bullish case and target 0.8764 resistance next. […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6479; (P) 1.6556; (R1) 1.6597; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. For now, further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.6368 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.6742 could have completed with three waves down to 1.6368. Above 1.6678 will target a retest on 1.6742 resistance […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:42 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9695; (P) 0.9711; (R1) 0.9732; More… No change in EUR/CHF’s outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, firm break of 0.9721 resistance will argue that correction from 0.9847 has completed already, and turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9847. However, break of 0.9563 will bring deeper fall […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Manufacturing and service PMI. UK, 10:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:30 pm

At 10:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the UK manufacturing and services sectors will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises. At the same time, their attitude to the current economic situation and prospects for further development is assessed. The manufacturing PMI may consolidate at 50.3 points, services PMI may drop from 53.1 points to 53.0 points, and the composite PMI may increase from 52.8 points to 52.9 points. Read more

GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Key levels in sight

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:02 pm

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the board.The market expects the first rate cut in August.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD pulled back into the broken support turned resistance around the 1.25 handle and extended the selloff into the 1.23 handle where we got a small bounce. We can notice that the price is again a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the minor black trendline where we can also find the confluence of the Fibonacci retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into the major trendline around the 1.25 handle. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the bearish setup around the 1.24 handle. Watch out for the UK and the US PMIs today as they will be market moving events and will likely trigger the outlined setups. Upcoming EventsToday we get the UK and the US Flash PMIs. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Manufacturing and service PMI. EU, 10:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 23:00 pm

At 10:00 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors of the EU countries will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 46.1 points to 46.5 points, the services PMI from 51.5 points to 51.8 points, and the composite PMI change from 50.3 points to 49.7 points. Read more

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:52 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0628; (P) 1.0650; (R1) 1.0675; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as range trading continues. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. In the bigger picture, […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:50 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2303; (P) 1.2347; (R1) 1.2395; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside at this point. Current fall from 1.2892 is in progress for 161.8% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2207 next. On the upside, above 1.2391 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:47 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9103; (P) 0.9113; (R1) 0.9131; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 0.9151 could extend, but further is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will turn bias to […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:44 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.57; (P) 154.71; (R1) 154.98; More… Intraday bias is mildly on the upside in USD/JPY with breach of 154.77 resistance. Larger up trend is extending. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the downside, break […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:41 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3673; (P) 1.3713; (R1) 1.3739; More… No change in USD/CAD’s outlook as retreat from 1.3845 is extending. Intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Downside should be contained by 1.3660 support to bring another rally. On the upside, firm break of 1.3845 will resume the whole rally from 1.3716 to 1.3976 key […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Manufacturing and service PMI. Germany, 09:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:30 pm

At 09:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Germany will be published. The indicators reflect the state of business activity in the national manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for further development. The manufacturing PMI may increase from 41.9 points to 42.8 points, the services PMI from 50.1 points to 50.6 points, and the composite PMI may change from 47.7 points to 47.0 points. Read more

AUD/USD Daily Report

Apr 22, 2024 | 22:24 pm

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6423; (P) 0.6439; (R1) 0.6465; More… AUD/USD’s recovery from 0.6361 continues today but stays below 0.6480 support turned resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Upside is still expected to be limited by 0.6480 support turned resistance to bring another decline. On the downside, break of 0.6361 will resume the fall from 0.6870 […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.

Market Insights Podcast – BOJ, AU inflation, US PCE and US Magnificent 7 stocks earnings in the focus

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:29 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, Australia’s monthly CPI (March) out on Wednesday (24 Apr) is expected to come in at a similar annualized pace of 3.4% as printed in February, its lowest reading since November 2021. Another set of soft inflation […]

BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Likely to Continue Consolidating for a While - 23 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Bitcoin continues to power higher during the Monday session as it looks like we are willing to step in and continue the overall consolidation.

USD/JPY Forecast: Greenback Continues to Punish the Yen - 23 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The US dollar continues to pressure the yen to the upside and as I look at the chart, it's easy to see that the market has shown itself to be very resilient.

S&P 500 Forecast: S&P 500 Continues to Look for Floor - 23 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The S&P 500 has shown itself to be somewhat bullish to kick off the week and that does make a certain amount of sense considering just how sold off we had gotten.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Looking for Buyers - 23 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:00 pm

The Nasdaq 100 rallied a bit during the early hours on Monday, as it looks like we are trying to bounce a bit from the massive sell-off that we had seen previously.

Gold Forecast: Gold Market Gets Crushed - 23 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 18:00 pm

Gold has fallen rather significantly during the course of the trading session on Monday, as it looks like we are going to perhaps take a bit of a breather in the uptrend.

Manufacturing and service PMI. Japan, 02:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 15:30 pm

At 02:30 (GMT+2), April data on business activity indices in the manufacturing and service sectors of Japan will be published. They reflect the state of business activity in the manufacturing and service industries based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading enterprises while assessing the attitude of purchasing and supply managers to the current economic situation and prospects for its further development. The manufacturing PMI may correct from 48.2 points to 48.0 points, and the services PMI from 54.1 points to 54.9 points. Read more

Cable sinks to a five-month low. What's next

Apr 22, 2024 | 07:34 am

Cable carved out a range from roughly 1.25-1.28 from December to early March in what was a slog of a market as we all weighed whether the BOE would keep its hawkish stance and the Fed would signal rate cuts.For a brief moment in March, it looked like the pair would break higher but it was quickly sucked back down and that was the first sign that sellers were in control.The fundamentals eventually took over as UK inflation faded and US growth/inflation continued to steam ahead. That's ultimately led to broad US dollar strength and cable hasn't been spared. The break below 1.2500 was strong at first and it consolidated for a week at 1.2430, retesting 1.25000 several times. However it Friday the break continued and it's now extended down to 1.2316. What's next?A 300-pip range deserves a 300-pip break. Given today's fall on light newsflow, there's a signal to sell that certainly is underscored by the poor sentiment in broader markets. There isn't much support until 1.2200 which should be interim support. Eventually, I think we go and retest the Oct/Nov lows near 1.2100.For now though, this move looks a bit stretched. There isn't a strong catalyst to press the pound lower or the US dollar higher. We will get some data on US GDP and PCE later this week that could be a driver. We also get the S&P Global PMIs tomorrow and those are good forward-looking indicators. I'll be looking for any hints there on relative economic shifts. This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 06:52 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0618; (P) 1.0648; (R1) 1.0686; More… EUR/USD is staying in consolidation from 1.0601 and intraday bias stays neutral. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. Break of 1.0601 will resume the fall from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to 1.0694 from 1.0980 at 1.0536 next. In the […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 06:42 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9032; (P) 0.9084; (R1) 0.9156; More…. USD/CHF is extending the consolidation pattern from 0.9151 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Break of 0.9151 will resume the larger rise from 0.8332 to 0.9243 resistance. However, firm break of 0.8996 will turn bias to the […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 06:40 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 153.93; (P) 154.30; (R1) 155.02; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 154.77 will resume larger up trend. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, strong resistance should be seen from 155.20 fibonacci level to bring correction on first attempt. On the […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 06:32 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2336; (P) 1.2402; (R1) 1.2437; More… GBP/USD’s decline extends further to as low as 1.2301 so far today. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 161.8% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at 1.2207 next. On the upside, above 1.2391 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Consumer Confidence. EU, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), April data on the consumer confidence index will be published in the Eurozone. The indicator is calculated based on a survey of 2.3K households that evaluate the prospects for the economy. This is a leading indicator for consumer spending, its high values indicate consumer optimism, and vice versa. If in April the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -14.9 points, this will put pressure on the position of the European currency. Read more

SPX 500: How low can the correction go?

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:12 am

The S&P 500 has recorded three consecutive weekly losses since its recent all-time high level of 5,265 printed on 28 March 2024. Last week’s decline of -3.05% was its worst weekly performance since early March 2023. A clear break below its upward-sloping 50-day moving average put its medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy. The current multi-week […]

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 04:04 am

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite broke through another key level at 15453 and extended the selloff into the 15162 support. We can also notice that the price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. The buyers might start to pile in more aggressively around these levels to position for a rally into a new all-time high with a better risk to reward setup. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into next support at 14477. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got overstretched on this timeframe as well. The buyers might want to start piling in around these levels or wait for a catalyst which could be either the Flash US PMIs tomorrow or the US PCE on Friday. The sellers should continue to sell the rallies though to position for the ultimate target around the 14477 level. There’s not much else to glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and position for a rally into the 15929 level. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

New Housing Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the new housing price index for March will be published in Canada; it allows analyzing the state of the national real estate market and assessing the impact of dynamics on the economy as a whole. The value is likely to be fixed at 0.1%, pushing the Canadian dollar quotes to an uptrend. Read more

Raw Materials Price Index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), the March commodity price index will be published in Canada. Unlike the index of prices for manufactured goods, this indicator includes purchase items that are not produced in the country, and all costs incurred by the buyer of raw materials, including the goods themselves, transportation costs, net taxes paid, customs duties, are involved in its calculation. If the value continues to show negative dynamics from 2.1% MoM and from -4.7% YoY, this will act as a driver of the depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Read more

USD/TRY Forecast: Turkish Treasury Tightens Tax Evasion Measures - 22 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:20 am

The US dollar against the Turkish lira pair recorded a rise during the European trading this Monday morning.

USD/JPY Analysis: Eyes Are Turning Towards BoJ - 22 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 03:00 am

The Bank of Japan's policy decision will be closely scrutinized this week for clues on the future path of Japanese interest rates.

I am buying this dip, IMHO, at TSLA stock before its earnings tommorrow. Here's how.

Apr 22, 2024 | 02:52 am

I am eyeing Tesla stock before tommorow's earnings report, and starting to buy nowAs equity traders, we're always on the lookout for opportunities that promise a good return against measured risk. Tesla Inc. (TSLA), the innovative electric vehicle and clean energy company, presents such an opportunity. Ahead of its earnings release tomorrow, post-market close, let's delve into why Tesla stock might be gearing up for a favorable entry point.Tesla's stock performance has been a rollercoaster of highs and lows. Since its all-time peak — where the company's value skyrocketed by over 100% — the price has corrected significantly, hovering around 52% below that zenith. This correction has captured the attention of traders looking for discounted entries into high-potential stocks.The technical perspective at TSLA stock, see my videoFrom a technical analysis standpoint, there's an interesting setup forming. Tesla's price action is approaching the lower band of a Pitchfork pattern, coinciding with a gap formed post the earnings announcement on January 23. These technical indicators often attract traders who look for historical patterns to repeat themselves.A net of buy orders predefined and ready, with the Levitan MethodMost traders do not know the Levitan method for dip buying so here goes... Although they might see this as an auspicious moment to consider entry as the downtrend is in play, that is clear. As the video shows a range where we target our buys, one might look to initiate a position at $142.61, closely aligned with the current premarket price. The plan involves scaling into the position — buying more shares at calculated lower points — and employing a disciplined stop-loss and take-profit strategy to manage risk.A contrarian bet with calculated riskOne could argue that much of the negative news surrounding Tesla might already be priced in. If true, this contrarian approach might just pay off handsomely, especially for those willing to endure short-term volatility for long-term gains. With a stop loss set at 5% below the entry point and a take-profit target at a hefty 35% above, the risk-reward ratio stands at an attractive 7:1.Long-term optimism but sharp risk managementWhile traders might decide to take partial profits along the way, holding a portion of Tesla stock for the long haul could be wise. If Tesla were to revisit its all-time high — a prospect that is not out of the question — the upside could be substantial.You can enlarge the below image to see the details of the buying method and trade plan or TSLA stock.Trade Plan for TSLA using the Levitan MethodIdentify Potential Dip Points: Analyze the stock chart of TSLA to identify potential dip points below the current market price where demand may increase, using technical analysis indicators and historical price levels.Determine Buy Levels and Shares: Plan to enter three separate buy orders at these dip points, with the number of shares based on a Fibonacci series. For instance:First Buy Order: 33 shares (33 x 1)Second Buy Order: 66 shares (33 x 2)Third Buy Order: 99 shares (33 x 3)Calculate Weighted Average Entry Price: If all three buy orders are filled, calculate the weighted average price of the shares purchased. This price will serve as the reference point for setting stop loss and take profit levels.Set Stop Loss and Take Profit: Set a stop loss at 5% below the weighted average entry price to limit potential losses. Set a take profit level at 35% above the average entry price to lock in profits, aiming for a 7:1 reward-to-risk ratio.Adjustments and Partial Profits: Traders may choose to take partial profits at a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio if the price reaches a 20% gain. Additionally, consider leaving a portion of the position (e.g., 20%) to potentially benefit from long-term growth in TSLA stock.Risk Management: Allocate a specific portion of the trading budget to this strategy, and do not exceed it to manage risk effectively.Monitor the Trade: Keep a close eye on TSLA’s price action, news, and overall market sentiment, ready to adjust the trade plan as needed.Document and Review: Record the details of all trades and review them regularly to refine the strategy over time.Investing in Tesla right now is a classic contrarian bet, rooted in technical analysis and a belief in the company's market position. As with all trading, there's an inherent risk, and it's crucial to trade based on one’s own research and risk tolerance. For those with an appetite for risk and an eye for potential, Tesla's dip could be a launching pad for significant returns. Stay tuned to ForexLive.com for further analysis and updates on this developing story.Remember, trade at your own risk. This article is not financial advice but rather a perspective on market opportunities based on current conditions. Always conduct thorough research or consult with a financial advisor before engaging in equity trading. This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 02:46 am

Last week, the Dow Jones got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Dow Jones has been trading inside a rising channel and continued to diverge with the MACD for a long time. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. Recently, we got a breakout which opened the door for a bigger correction into the 37128 level. The sellers managed to break the second key support level and will now target a drop into the third and last one at 37128. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break the current downward trend to start targeting new highs. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got stuck in a consolidation just beneath the second key level. We also got a break above the downward trendline which might be an early signal for a bigger pullback. The buyers will need the price to break above the 38043 level to increase the chances for a bullish move and position for a rally into the 38464 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the 38043 level with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 37128 support. Dow Jones Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the resistance zone around the 38043 level with several rejections from it. The moving averages on this timeframe have crossed to the upside and we have a divergence with the MACD, which could be another early signal for a bullish move into the 38464 resistance. If the price were to break higher and reach the 38464 zone, we can expect the sellers to pile in more aggressively there as they will have an even better risk to reward setup to target a drop into the 37128 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Analysis: Geopolitical Tensions to Exacerbate Losses - 22 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 02:42 am

According to forex trading platforms, GBP/USD has plummeted to a five-month low of 1.2366 support after Israel launched a series of airstrikes on multiple military targets inside Iran.

EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Dominance Continues - 22 April 2024

Apr 22, 2024 | 02:06 am

Throughout last week's trading, the EUR/USD attempted to rebound but its gains were limited and failed to surpass the 1.0700 level.

Gold Analysis: How Far Will Gold's Gains Reach?

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:39 am

The strong breakout in gold prices in recent months has been noticeable. But the reason is not its rapid vertical rise to impressive record highs.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:23 am

Last week, the S&P 500 got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 continues to rollover with the trend now looking clearly bearish as the price keeps on printing lower lows and lower highs with the moving averages being crossed to the downside. The price has now reached another key support level at 4946. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 4846.S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous support now turned resistance at 5057 where they will also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the resistance to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. S&P 500 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor black trendline defining the current downward momentum with the red 21 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in again if we get a pullback into the trendline to position for a break below the 4946 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and target a rally into the 5057 resistance. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Industrial Orders Index from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI). UK, 12:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 22, 2024 | 01:00 am

At 12:00 (GMT+2), April data on the index of industrial orders from the Confederation of British Industrialists (CBI) will be published in the UK. It is calculated on the basis of a survey of representatives of leading British enterprises and is an important indicator of the state of British business. If the index continues its negative dynamics from the current -18.0 points, this may put pressure on the pound. Read more

GBP/CHF Forecast: British Pound Has a Wild Ride Against the Franc

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:40 am

I continue to watch the British Pound against the Swiss franc overall, as this is a pair that I think could enter the headline soon.

S&P 500 Forecast: Continues to Drift Lower

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:30 am

The S&P 500 continues to drift lower overall.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:25 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 190.16; (P) 191.44; (R1) 192.58; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as consolidations from 193.51 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 190.02 will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from 178.32, […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:22 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.51; (P) 164.27; (R1) 165.52; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral for the moment. Consolidation from 165.33 could extend further. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.59 will argue that it’s at least correcting the rise […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Continues to Consolidate Despite Volatility

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:20 am

The euro has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:19 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8569; (P) 0.8593; (R1) 0.8637; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside at this point. Fall from 0.8764 has probably completed already. Further rally would be seen to medium term trend line resistance (now at 0.8650). On the downside, below 0.8596 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

USD/ZAR Analysis: A Slight Turn Lower After Speculative Surge Upwards

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:18 am

From Tuesday onwards and throughout last week the USD/ZAR hovered mostly above the 19.00000 level.

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:16 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6551; (P) 1.6616; (R1) 1.6672; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD is turned neutral again with current retreat. But further rally will remain mildly in favor as long as 1.6368 support holds. Corrective fall from 1.6742 could have completed with three waves down to 1.6368. Above 1.6678 will target a retest on 1.6742 […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:11 am

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9606; (P) 0.9662; (R1) 0.9758; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. On the upside, firm break of 0.9721 resistance will argue that correction from 0.9847 has completed already, and turn intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 0.9847. However, break of 0.9563 will bring deeper fall to […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

BTC/USD Forecast: Bitcoin Finds Major Support

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:10 am

The bitcoin market has been all over the place during the trading session on Friday.

Gold Technical Analysis

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:07 am

Gold got stuck in a consolidation around the highs as a mix of geopolitical and macro drivers led to a rangebound price action. Last week, Israel eventually decided to proceed with a limited retaliation against Iran. Iran downplayed the airstrikes, which could be a sign that they do not want to escalate things further. We might finally put that episode behind our backs. On the macro side, the real yields have risen notably in the past couple of weeks, which is generally a negative driver for the Gold market. That was not the case this time and it’s not yet clear if it’s just because of geopolitical fears or something else. If it was indeed just because of geopolitical fears, we might start to see the price rolling over, so the technical levels and the next data will be crucial to monitor. Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Gold got stuck in a consolidation just beneath the 2400 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets and target a bigger drop into the next trendline around the 2100 level. Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it led to pullbacks into the minor black trendline where the buyers kept on leaning onto to position for new higher highs. This morning, we got a breakout, so the chances for a drop into the major trendline increased. The sellers will start to pile in with a defined risk above the most recent swing high to position for a fall into the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the minor trendline to position for a rally into a new all-time high. Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a strong resistance zone around the 2400 level where the price got rejected from several times last week, except the spike caused by the Israeli retaliation. We can see that we now have a minor downward trendline where we can also find the confluence of the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. If we get a pullback from the current levels, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline to position for a drop into the major trendline with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and position for a rally into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. Strong data is likely to weigh on Gold, while weak figures should give it a boost.See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USD/MXN Analysis: Higher Values Seen but Bearish Values Being Traced

Apr 22, 2024 | 00:00 am

The USD/MXN quickly recovered its equilibrium and went into the weekend near values it was traversing last Tuesday.

USD/NOK Forex Signal: Krone Shows Signs of Choppiness on Friday

Apr 21, 2024 | 23:48 pm

The market is kind of hanging around just above the 11 Norwegian Krona level. And I think at this point, we continue to go sideways.

USD/JPY Forecast: US Dollar Recovers Drastically Against the Yen

Apr 21, 2024 | 23:40 pm

The US dollar initially plunged overnight against the Japanese yen as the Israelis attacked the Iranians.

Bitcoin technical analysis, bulls looking fine

Apr 21, 2024 | 23:39 pm

Welcome to my latest BTCUSD technical update at ForexLive.com. In this Bitcoin-focused analysis, we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's price movements and provide strategic insights for both traders and investors. Below, we highlight key observations and trading tips from our analysis. Don't miss our accompanying video for a visual guide through the technical landscape.Bitcoin technical analysis video shows this wonderful mapChannel dynamics and BTCUSD movements 📉📈Recent patterns: We observed a significant double bottom pattern at the lower band of the BTCUSD channel, which has proven to be a strong reversal signal. The bounce from this point suggests a bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market.Channel overview: The current trading channel is defined by clear upper and lower bands, with the recent price action respecting these boundaries. The upper band has been touched twice, forming a speculative channel that needs cautious interpretation.Mid-level breakthrough: Bitcoin has recently breached the mid-level of the trading channel, enhancing the bullish outlook. This breakthrough is an encouraging sign for potential upward momentum.Key technical indicators for Bitcoin 🛠️EMA focus: The 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is a critical indicator widely utilized by algorithms and professional trading firms. Currently, Bitcoin's price is adhering to this moving average on the 4-hour chart, indicating a strong trend-following signal.Fibonacci levels: We've applied Fibonacci retracement levels specifically to the channel. The 50% Fibonacci level is now acting as a pivotal point, with the 61.8% level at around $67,000 possibly serving as the next target for partial profit-taking.Trading strategy tips for BTCUSD ⚡Potential entry points: For those looking to go long on Bitcoin, watching for a touch or near approach to the 20 EMA could provide a strategic entry point. Setting an alert for this event may enhance timing for entering trades.Price trajectory and targets: We anticipate movement towards the $71,000 to $72,000 range as Bitcoin tests the upper channel boundary. This journey might witness intermediate retracements but showcases the potential for significant gains.Market considerations and risks for Bitcoin trading 🌐External influences: It's important to keep an eye on broader market indices like NASDAQ, which can influence Bitcoin's price dynamics. A rebound in these indices starting the week of April 22 could also support a rise in Bitcoin prices.Bearish scenarios: Should the price drop below the lower channel band around $59,750, control would shift to the bears, altering the current bullish perspective.Concluding thoughts on BTCUSD analysis 💡Bitcoin's market is dynamic, and while current trends suggest bullish control, entry should be approached with caution, especially for new investors. The double bottom formation and subsequent 18% retracement offer a robust basis for potential upward movement. However, markets are unpredictable, and continuous monitoring is essential.Thank you for tuning into our analysis. Trade Bitcoin at your own risk and always stay updated with ForexLive for the latest in price actions and market dynamics. Happy trading! This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

NASDAQ 100 Forecast: Plunges After Israeli Strike on Iran

Apr 21, 2024 | 23:34 pm

The Nasdaq 100 fell rather hard during the early hours on Friday as the Israelis attacked the Iranians and of course you can expect a lot of people ran for cover.

Gold Forecast: Continues to Absorb Inflows

Apr 21, 2024 | 23:17 pm

Gold rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, which is not a huge surprise considering that it's been in an uptrend.

GBP/USD Forecast: British Pound Continues to Drop

Apr 21, 2024 | 23:09 pm

The British Pound initially tried to rally a bit against the US dollar during the trading session on Friday, but then plunged as Israel attacked Iran.

Russell 2000 Technical Analysis

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:57 pm

Last week, the Russell 2000 got under pressure amid geopolitical fears and a general risk off sentiment. The latest developments saw Israel retaliating against Iran but the latter downplaying the airstrikes. This episode might be behind our backs, although it’s worth to keep an eye on it if it were to become a concern again. On the macro side, the Fedspeak turned more hawkish, especially in the latter part of the week as the inflation progress looks to be stalled. Overall, the last week had plenty of bearish catalysts weighing on the market, so we will probably need some positive data on the inflation front this week to turn the sentiment around.Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Russell 2000 broke through the key support zone around the 2020 level extending the selloff into new lows with the price now trading near the key 1920 support zone. The buyers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 1820. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline where they will also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into a new cycle high. Russell 2000 Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the recent price action formed what looks like a descending wedge. Moreover, the price is diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. This might be a good signal for a reversal into the trendline. If the price were to break above the upper bound of the wedge, we can expect the buyers to pile in and target a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely lean on the upper bound of the wedge to position for a drop into the 1920 support zone. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just a few notable releases. We begin tomorrow with the US PMIs. On Thursday, we get the US Q1 GDP and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US PCE report. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD Forex Signal: More Downside as Bears Prevail

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:42 pm

The British pound continued its strong sell-off on Monday morning as all signs pointed to a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut as soon as in its next meeting.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Forecast as the Euro Crash Fades

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:35 pm

The EUR/USD pair stabilized last week.

BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bitcoin Sits and Waits for Next Catalyst

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:29 pm

Bitcoin price held steady on Monday after the network went through its fourth halving during the weekend.

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Hammer Pattern Points to More Upside

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:22 pm

The Australian dollar was flat against the greenback on Monday morning as traders refocused on Australia’s inflation report.

Consumer Confidence. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 22:00 pm

At 09:00 (GMT+2), Turkey will publish April data on the consumer confidence index, reflecting the degree of confidence in the strength of the national economy. If the indicator continues its positive dynamics from the current 79.4 points, this may support the lira's position. Read more

Rightmove Group Ltd. House Price Index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 21, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2) in the UK, the house price index for April from the research company Rightmove Group Ltd. will be published, recording the change in the average cost of houses for sale. If it continues its negative dynamics from the current 0.8%, this may put pressure on the pound's position. Read more

The weekend FX technical report for the week starting April 22, 2024

Apr 19, 2024 | 17:47 pm

In this vieeo, I take a look at all the major currencies vs the USD and outline the bias (bullish or bearish), risks and targets. Be aware and prepared for the new trading week.Below is the start and end times for each pair. Introduction 0:00 to 2:05EURUSD: 2:05 to 4:55USDJPY: 4:55 to 8:00GBPUSD: 8:00 to 11:55USDCHF: 11:55 to 15:50USDCAD: 15:50 to 19:00AUDUSD: 19:00 to 22:53NZDUSD: 22:52 to 25:30 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Gold on pace to close at a record level today

Apr 19, 2024 | 10:34 am

The price of gold is on pace to close at a new record level today. A. How close level is $2832.30 on Monday, April 15. The low this week was on Monday at $2324.42. The point today at $2417.89 was the highest price for the week. The high intraday price was reached last Friday at $2431.78.For the tree week the price is currently up around 2.37%.Looking at the hourly chart below, the price action has been up and down this week, but the 200-hour MA has been a good job stalling the falls recently. It would take a move below that MA level - and staying below - to increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Another flush lower in stocks

Apr 19, 2024 | 09:20 am

With key earnings being releases next week, the Nasdaq is flushing more to the downside. The NASDAQ index is now down -1.61% or -251 points at 15350.76.In the process, the price is running away from its 100 day moving average of 15489.71 and the 50% midpoint of the 2024 trading range at 15508.22. Bearish.Shares of Nvidia are breaking and falling away from the 50-day MA at 841.39. The price has not traded materially below the 50 day MA since November 2023. Next week, is pivotal with a number of large-cap stocks reporting including. Monday:VerizonSAPTuesday:GMTeslaVisaTexas InstrumentsWednesday:BoeingAT&TGeneral DynamicsMeta PlatformsIBMFordChipotleServiceNowThursday:American AirlinesCaterpillarSouthwest AirlinesBristol-Myers SquibbMicrosoftAlphabetIntelFridayExxon MobilChevron This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

As London traders look to exit, the GBPUSD is pushing lower

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:42 am

As London traders look for the exits, the GBPUSD has rotated back to the downside. The price is currently trading at 1.2405. The low for the day was at 1.2388 reached shortly after the Israeli attack on Iran. That is also the low for the trading week.The subsequent bounce off of that low, took the price of the GBPUSD back up toward its 50% midpoint of the pair's move up from the October 2023 low at 1.24646. The high price today reached 1.2467 just above that midpoint level before rotating back to the downside over the last two hours of trading. Finding willing sellers nearly 50% midpoint, keeps the sellers more in control.The price of the GBPUSD has also moved back below an old swing area between 1.24278 and 1.24497. That also increases the bearish bias.What next?Get below the low for the day 1.2388 and traders will look toward the 61.8% retracement of the same move higher from the October 2023 low. That level comes in at 1.23635. Move below that level and sellers can probe even lowerWith the 50% midpoint holding resistance today, getting and staying above that level is now needed to disappoint the sellers/bears.Sellers are in control in the GBPUSD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

NZDUSD finds swing area support this week and also swing area resistance.

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:31 am

The NZDUSD has found a swing area support this week between 0.5851 and 0.58699. The trader also found swing area resistance at another swing area between 0.5933 and 0.5941. Those extremes helped to confined the ups and downs this week. Admittedly, with the price trading to new lows for the year and the lows going back to November, the sellers are more in control. However the support swing area held on three separate runts the downside, suggesting that buyers are interested at the area.In this video I take a look at the pair from a technical perspective and outline the key levels in play. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 19, 2024 | 08:00 am

At 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report records changes in the amount of oil production capacity in the United States. The number of towers was last down to 506 units, and a continuation of this trend could support oil prices. Read more

NASDAQ index down another 1% today

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:50 am

The NASDAQ index is down near 1% in trading today. The tech heavy index is now down 6 straight trading days. Nvidia shares are down -3.03%. Amazon is down -1.49%. Meta Platforms is down -2.42%. Apple is down -1.06%. If you want to buy a dip, the market is dipping.The index is now down -4.35% for the week. That's the largest decline going back to March 6, 2023, when shares fell -4.71%. The Nasdaq is on pace for the 4th week in a row lower. The price has moved down around 6.76% from its all-time high.Technically, the price has traded below the 50% of the 2024 trading range at 15508.22, and also below its 100-day moving average of 15491.05. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Euro edges higher, ECB eyes June cut

Apr 19, 2024 | 07:14 am

Euro recovers after dip The euro fell as much as 0.30% earlier but has recovered and edged higher. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0666, up 0.21%. The euro remains under pressure from the strong US dollar. Last week, EUR/USD fell 1.8% and dropped as low as 1.0601 this week, its lowest […]

USDCHF falls sharply and rebound sharply on Isreal's retaliation. What next?

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:49 am

The USDCHF fell sharply after the Israeli attack on Iran overnight. That move to the downside tested the broken 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2022 high at 0.9025, and bounced as report of the extent of the attack were reported. The subsequent reversal to the upside so the pair moved back up to target resistance at 0.9095 and find willing sellers. The pair has defined its technical trading range. In this video I outline the moves and the technical levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kickstart your FX trading for April 19 w/ a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY & GBPUSD

Apr 19, 2024 | 06:10 am

There is increased volatility after Israel's retaliation against the Iran's weekends drone attack. The EURUSD and GBPUSD moved lower (higher USD) initially, but has since rebounded. The USDJPY fell on flight into the relative safety of the JPY initially after the report, but as stocks have rebounded so has the USDJPY.In this video I take a look at the technicals that are driving the three major currency pairs. In it, I take a look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD and outline bias and risk defining levels in play. It is Friday, the calendar is void of any economic data. Focus will be on the headlines and any weekend risk for retaliation. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The CHF is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest as the NA session begins

Apr 19, 2024 | 05:11 am

The CHF is the strongest (flight to safety) and the NZD is the weakest (risk off)as the North American session begins. The USD is mixed with the greenback losing -0.34% vs the CHF and gaining +0.25% vs the NZD. Other than that, the major currencies are within 0.14% of the closing levels from yesterday to start the trading day with the EUR, GBP, JPY and CAD trading near unchanged in the US morning snapshot. The modest moves come despite Israel's limited retaliatory strike against Iran following Iran's significant drone and missile attack on its territory last weekend. The Israel response targeted the Isfahan area in central Iran, where nuclear facilities and an air base are located. Despite reports of explosions and the activation of air-defense systems across Iranian provinces, Iranian state media downplayed the incident, indicating no substantial damage or disruptions at nuclear sites. Reports are that the U.S. was informed of the attack just before its launch, but was not involved. This action by Israel seemed aimed at avoiding a larger conflict escalation and Iran's reaction has so far been limited, which has investors hoping the conflict tension is over. US stocks have moved lower in overnight trading on the back of the Israel strike, but has rebounded from the lowest levels. The Dow futures implied a decline of over 300 points but is now down about -60 points now. The S&P is on pace for its 3rd weekly decline. The Nasdaq index is on pace for its 4th straight weekly decline and given the premarket decline, on pace to the worst week since March 2023. After the close yesterday, Netflix beat earnings and revenues expectations, and also showed strong new customer numbers, but the stock is still down over around -5.5% in pre-market trading as investors worry about the future. The company announced they would stop reporting membership numbers starting Q1 2025 and projected revenues lower than analysts expectation for the current quarter - both are not sitting well with investors. The major earnings today, are not impressing investors:American Express Co AXPEPS: 3.33 reported vs. 2.95 expected – BEATRevenue: 15.8 billion reported vs. 15.79 billion expected – BEATShares are trading down -1.15% in premarket tradingProcter & Gamble Co PGCore EPS: 1.52 reported vs. 1.41 expected – BEATRevenue: 20.2 billion reported vs. 20.41 billion expected – MISSEDShares are trading down -4.14% in premarket tradingSchlumberger SLBEPS: 0.75 reported vs. 0.75 expected – METRevenue: 8.71 billion reported vs. 8.69 billion expected – BEATShares are trading down -1.45% premarket trainingNext week is a key release week with Tesla,Visa, Boeing, Meta, IBM, Ford, Chipotle, Intel, Microsoft, Alphabet, Exonn Mobile and Chevron all scheduled to report. As for today, there are no key economic releases scheduled in Canada or the US. Today is the last day before the quiet period starts for the Fed ahead of their May 1 interest-rate decision.A Reuters poll released overnight, indicated that while no economists expect the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates before the end of June 2024, there is some anticipation of rate hikes later in the year. Specifically, 21 out of 61 economists predict a rate increase in the third quarter, and 17 out of 55 foresee it in the fourth quarter of 2024. The consensus median forecast places the upper end of the overnight call rate at 0.25% in the fourth quarter, where it is expected to remain until late 2025.In a more detailed breakdown from a subset of 36 economists, 19% predict a BOJ rate hike in July 2024, but the majority, about 36%, anticipate this will happen in October 2024. Another 31% believe the rate increase will occur in 2025 or later.Meanwhile, ECBs Simkus said that it is possible the ECB will lower rates three or four times and rate cuts could be back to back. A number of ECB officials indicated that they are focused on June for a rate cut, but add the caveat that it is still being data dependent. They are also chirping that the ECB is not Fed dependent.A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $-0.48 or -0.58% at $81.62. At this time yesterday, the price was at $81.67. The high price overnight reached up to $85.64.Gold is trading down -$2.50 or -0.10% at $2376.02. At this time yesterday, the price was higher at $2382.41. It's high price reached up to $2417.89, before rotating back to the downside.Silver is trading down -$0.13 or -0.49% at $28.07. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.43. It's high price overnight reached as high as $28.93Bitcoin currently trades at $65,051 which is well off the low at $59,629 and after the reports of the strike by Israel. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,800In the premarket, the US major indices are trading mostly lower:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a fall of -61 points. Yesterday, the index rose 22.07 points or 0.06% at 37775.39S&P futures are implying a fall of -7.37 points. Yesterday, the index fell -11.11 points or -0.22% at 5011.11Nasdaq futures are implying a fall of -45.23 points. Yesterday, the index fell -81.87 points or -0.52% at 15601.50The European indices are trading lower ahead of the US open:German DAX, -0.65%France CAC , -0.17%UK FTSE 100, -0.83%Spain's Ibex, -0.55%Italy's FTSE MIB, -0.15% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were lower after the Israeli attack on IranJapan's Nikkei 225, -2.66%China's Shanghai Composite Index, -0.29%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, -0.99%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.98%Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower:2-year yield 4.966%, -2.6 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.931%5-year yield 4.639%, -4.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.615%10-year yield 4.589%, -5.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.584%30-year yield 4.687%, -5.7 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.699%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads moved more inverted:The 2-10 year spread is at -37.6[…]

USD/JPY jumpy as Japan’s core CPI eases

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:54 am

The Japanese yen showed some promise earlier, gaining as much as 0.48% against the US dollar as it rose to 153.59. However, it has pared those gains and is trading in Europe at 154.58, down 0.04%. Japan’s core CPI falls to 2.6% Japan’s nationwide CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 2.6% y/y in March, down […]

USDCAD Technical Analysis - Key levels to watch for a pullback

Apr 19, 2024 | 04:47 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measures eased further.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD pulled back into the blue 8 moving average and bounced as the buyers stepped in to position for a rally into new highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and even better around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as they will also find the confluence of the previous resistance now turned support. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that besides the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, we can also find a trendline adding confluence around the 1.37 handle. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and target a drop into the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. The price broke below the trendline support, so we have higher chances to see a drop all the way down to the major trendline. We have a black counter-trendline acting as resistance now, so if the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in to position for a drop into the major trendline. If the price were to break to the upside though, the buyers will likely pile in to position for a rally into new highs. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 03:41 am

Yesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended another day negative with the buyers struggling to find some footing. It could have been a mix of hawkish Fed’s Williams comments where he didn’t rule out a rate hike if the data called for such a move, and some jitteriness due to some rumours of an Israeli retaliation in the following 24/48 hours. Tonight, Israel did retaliate as it carried out airstrikes on Iran, but eventually it was seen as a limited retaliation with even Iran downplaying it. This might finally put this thing behind our backs, and we could see some positive risk sentiment today. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite is now getting very close to the key 15453 level. We can also notice that the price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price got overstretched on this timeframe as well. If we were to get a final push into the 15453 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally back into the 15929 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15162. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the red 21 moving average for confluence. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in and position for a rally into the 15929 level. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

GBP/USD edges higher after flat retail sales

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:35 am

The British pound dipped 0.30% earlier today but has managed to recover the losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2451, up 0.12%. Retail sales misses estimate The UK release retail sales were flat in March, after a revised 0.1% gain in February and missing the market estimate of 0.3%. Fuel sales were […]

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 02:25 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. NZDThe RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion. The market expects the first cut in August.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD is struggling to break below the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the low at 0.5780, although they will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a spike lower tonight following the news of Israeli retaliation against Iran but the market faded the move completely as Iran downplayed the airstrikes. We can also notice that we have a strong divergence with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a bigger reversal, and it might even end up being a double bottom with the major trendline as the target. In fact, the buyers will likely increase the bullish bets into the major trendline if the price were to break above the neckline at 0.5933. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the divergence with the MACD which has been going on since the 0.60 handle. We can also notice that we have a minor resistance zone around the 0.59 handle where we can also find the red 21 moving average for confluence. This is where the sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a break below the key support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Apr 19, 2024 | 01:06 am

USDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY got stuck in some consolidation just beneath the 155.00 handle as the market might be awaiting some new catalyst to push into new highs. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support where we can also find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another trendline where the buyers can lean onto in case of a pullback where they will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the 151.92 support zone and then target a break below it.USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the rangebound price action between the 153.90 support and the 154.80 resistance. We got a spike lower tonight following the Israeli retaliation against Iran, but the move was completely erased as Iran downplayed the airstrikes. We might now continue to see the market playing the range with selling pressure around the resistance and buying pressure around the support until we get a catalyst for a breakout. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.

Retail sales. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be published in the UK. The indicator monthly records the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). The rate is expected to adjust from 0.0% to 0.3% MoM and from –0.4% to –0.7% YoY, while the core figure is likely to fall from 0.2% to −0.1% MoM and from −0.5% to −0.9% YoY, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

Producer price index. Germany, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), Germany will publish the March producer price index, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting the monthly change in prices for goods and services provided by producers, and has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. The figure is likely to adjust from –0.4% to 0.0% MoM and from –4.1% to –3.8% YoY, supporting the euro. Read more

Nationwide Core Consumer Price Index. Japan, 01:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 14:30 pm

At 01:30 (GMT+2), the March national core consumer price index will be published, recording changes in the cost of goods and services, except food and energy. It is a key way to determine purchasing trends and inflation in Japan. It is expected to decline from 2.8% to 2.7% YoY. Read more

Consumer Confidence Index from GfK Group. UK, 01:01 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 14:01 pm

At 01:01 (GMT+2), data on the consumer confidence index from GfK Group will be published in the UK. The indicator evaluates the spending of the country’s residents, which is part of economic activity. The negative dynamics are expected to slow down from −21.0 points to −19.0 points, putting pressure on the pound. Read more

GBP/USD eyes retail sales

Apr 18, 2024 | 08:33 am

The British pound is having a quiet week and that trend has continued on Thursday . In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2450, down 0.04%. Will UK retail sales improve? The UK release retail sales for March on Friday. The market forecast for March is 0.7% y/y after a decline of 0.4% […]

US, Japan express concern over Japanese yen

Apr 18, 2024 | 06:45 am

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.44, up 0.03%. It’s a light data calendar today. US unemployment claims were unchanged at 212,000 and the Philly Fed Manufacturing index surged to 15.5 in April, up from 3.5 in March and crushing the market estimate of […]

Existing Home Sales. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 05:00 am

At 16:00 (GMT+2), March data on sales in the secondary housing market in the United States will be published, which reflect the number of existing residential buildings sold during the past month, and are one of the most important indicators of the construction market. The figure is expected to decrease from 4.38 million to 4.20 million. Read more

Australian dollar shrugs off soft job numbers

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:55 am

The Australian dollar is steady on Thursday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6442, up 0.12%. Australia’s employment declines Australia’s job growth hit the breaks in March and fell by 6,600. This missed the market estimate of a gain of 7,700 and follows a blowout gain of 116,500 in February. Still, the drop […]

Initial Jobless Claims. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 18, 2024 | 03:30 am

At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on Initial Jobless Claims in the USA will be released. The indicator measures the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the past week. These data are collected by the Department of Labor and published in a weekly report. Initial Jobless Claims indicator is used to measure the state of the labor market, since an increase in the indicator means that fewer people are hired. A correction is expected from 211.0 thousand to 214.0 thousand. Read more

Trade Balance. Switzerland, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on Trade Balance in Switzerland will be published. This indicator captures the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods. The indicator is projected to decrease from the current 3.662 billion francs to 3.220 billion francs, which may put pressure on the exchange rate of the Swiss national currency. Read more

Unemployment Rate. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in Australia, which records the percentage of the number of registered unemployed over the age of 18 to the total working-age population. The indicator is expected to adjust from 3.7% to 3.9%. Read more

Employment Change. Australia, 03:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 16:30 pm

At 03:30 (GMT+2), March employment data will be published in Australia, recording the change in the number of employed citizens. The indicator is expected to decrease from 116.5 thousand to 7.2 thousand. The realization of the forecast can put pressure on the Australian currency. Read more

Beige Book. USA, 20:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 09:00 am

At 20:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed) will publish the Beige Book economic report. It characterizes the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and contains information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market, and other indicators at the moment. The document is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Read more

AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data

Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 am

The Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]

NZ dollar rebounds on sticky inflation report

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:16 am

The New Zealand dollar has bounced back with strong gains on Wednesday, ending a nasty slide of 3.4% which started last week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5907, up 0.45%. New Zealand inflation falls less than expected New Zealand’s CPI continued to ease in the first quarter but the markets were […]

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 18:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 07:00 am

At 18:00 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech, in which investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more

Crude oil inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 05:30 am

At 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction from the current 5.841M barrels to 0.900M barrels is expected, supporting oil quotes. Read more

GBP/USD rises as UK inflation higher than expected

Apr 17, 2024 | 04:46 am

The British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation eased to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% in February […]

EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish exhaustion condition detected after 2-month of rallies

Apr 17, 2024 | 02:24 am

A bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is at risk of shaping a short-term mean reversion decline within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch […]

Consumer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 17, 2024 | 00:00 am

At 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index of EU countries will be published. It is the main indicator of inflation and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc. It has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may change from 0.6% to 0.8% MoM and from 2.6% to 2.4% YoY, while the core reading may rise from 0.7% to 1.1% MoM and decrease from 3.1% to 2.9% YoY. Read more

Consumer price index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 21:00 pm

At 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index will be published in the UK. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services (food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc.), and also has a significant impact on decisions on monetary policy. It may change from 3.4% to 3.1% YoY and from 0.6% to 0.7% MoM. Read more

Trade balance. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 14:50 pm

At 01:50 (GMT+2), March trade balance data will be published in Japan. This indicator records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods, and its increase is a positive factor for the yen. The negative dynamics may accelerate from −379.4B yen to −810.2B yen, putting pressure on the yen. Read more

Consumer price index. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 14:00 pm

At 00:45 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index will be published in New Zealand, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may increase from 0.5% to 0.6% QoQ and consolidate at 4.7% YoY. Read more

API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 11:30 am

At 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The continuation of the correction from 3.034M barrels may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more

NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 am

The New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. USA, 19:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 08:15 am

At 19:15 (GMT+2), the head of the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed), Jerome Powell, will give a speech. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the American economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at the regulator’s further actions in the monetary policy. Read more

Canadian dollar extends losses as Canada’s inflation rises

Apr 16, 2024 | 07:16 am

The Canadian dollar is down for a fifth straight day and has slipped 1.9% during that time. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3840, up 0.37%. Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% Canada’s inflation rate for March rose to 2.9% y/y, ticking up from 2.8% in February and above the market forecast of […]

Industrial production. USA, 15:15 (GMT+2)

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:15 am

At 15:15 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in the United States. The indicator records changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country. Its calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 0.1% to 0.4% MoM, supporting the American dollar. Read more

Currency war and geopolitical risk are deadly concoctions for risk assets

Apr 16, 2024 | 04:00 am

The odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be forced to enact “beggar-thy-neighbour” typed monetary policies to deliberately weaken their respective currencies. […]

GBP/USD dips after weak employment data

Apr 16, 2024 | 03:10 am

The British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job growth took a hard hit in the three months to February as […]

Market Insights Podcast – Pause in oil rally, UK and Japan inflation, China Q1 GDP are the focus for this week

Apr 15, 2024 | 18:38 pm

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, the possible scenarios on the trajectory oil prices after its 13% rally seen in the past month amid geopolitical tensions in Middle East with fears of tic-for-tact retaliation moves between Israel and Iran. Secondly, the adverse […]

GBP/USD eyes UK employment release

Apr 15, 2024 | 08:12 am

The British pound is steady on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.05%. US retail sales climb 0.7% US consumers continue to shop and spend as March retail sales was stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, up from a revised 0.9% gain in February and above the […]

Euro ends slide as industrial production rebounds

Apr 15, 2024 | 05:14 am

The euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low. Eurozone industrial production rebounded 0.8% m/m in February following […]

NZ dollar slides to five-month low

Apr 15, 2024 | 03:13 am

The New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after as sharp decline of 1% on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5945, up 0.14%. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as 0.5927 earlier, its lowest point since November 14. NZ Services PSI declines New Zealand’s services sector had a dismal March, […]

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