The Latest Forex Analysis and Reviews: The Ultimate Resource for Technical and Fundamental Analysis, Forex Signals, and Forex Forecasts.
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Beige Book. USA, 20:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 17, 2024 | 09:00 amAt 20:00 (GMT+2), the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed) will publish the Beige Book economic report. It characterizes the state of the economy in the twelve federal districts of the country and contains information on all types of industry, agriculture, corporate and consumer spending, the real estate market, and other indicators at the moment. The document is published eight times a year before scheduled meetings of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Read more
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NZDUSD corrects modestly higher with more work to do to give buyers more confidence
Apr 17, 2024 | 08:39 amThe NZDUSD is higher on the day, but the move is still modest and there is work to do, to give the buyers more confidence after the recent move lower. IN this video, I outline the technical levels in play and explain what needs to be done, to give the dip buyers more confidence (or not). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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AUD/USD steadies ahead of employment data
Apr 17, 2024 | 08:34 amThe Australian dollar has stabilized on Wednesday, after a 2.2% decline over the past three days. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.62254, up 0.37% but remains close to five-month lows. Australian job growth expected to slide Australia’s employment is expected to post a small gain of 7,200 in March after a […]
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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 17-19, 2024: sell below $2,400 (21 SMA - double top)
Apr 17, 2024 | 07:49 amGold is trading around 2,386, within an uptrend channel, and below the strong resistance at 2,397. On the H4 chart, we can see a consolidation in the price after it reached the 61.8% Fibonacci at 2,395. Gold is currently bouncing and could try again to break this zone.In case gold breaks and consolidates above 2,395 and above the psychological level of 2,400, we could expect it to continue rising and the price could reach 2,422 and finally, 7/8 of Murray located at 2,437.On the contrary, in case there is a pullback towards 2,395, the instrument could form a double top pattern which could be a technical reversal signal and we could sell below this area.If this scenario occurs, the opportunity to sell at 2,395 will open up, with the target at 2,380. Additionally, a sharp break of the uptrend channel could give us a new entry to sell with the target at 2,346 (200 EMA).Technically, the eagle indicator is reaching exhaustion levels. Gold is likely to make a technical correction in the coming days. Our trading plan will be to sell below 2,400 or in case it trades below 6/8 of Murray located at 2,385 with the target at the psychological level of 2,300.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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USDCAD moves lower w/ the modest USD weakness today. Moves toward support target at 1.3765
Apr 17, 2024 | 07:23 amThe USDCAD has moved lower in trading today on USD weakness. In the process, the pair is moving away from topside resistance target between 1.3839 and 1.3855. The downside support comes near the 100-day moving average 1.3765. Devil also corresponds with the high of a swing area down to 1.37346.In this video, I outline the technical levels in play and explain why. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for April 17-19, 2024: sell below $3,125 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)
Apr 17, 2024 | 07:21 amETH/USD is trading around 3,046.92, below the 21 SMA, and inside the downtrend channel forming since late March. Ether could continue its fall as it comes under bearish pressure and is likely to find immediate support around 1/8 Murray located at 2,812.Technically, it is approaching an oversold zone. If a bounce occurs around 2,800, it could be seen as a signal to buy with the target at 3,700.On the other hand, if ETH/USD breaks and consolidates above 2/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA, the bearish outlook could change and we could expect more gains in Ether and it could reach the 200 EMA located at 3,370.A breakout of the bearish trend channel as well as consolidation above the 200 EMA and 3,400 will be seen as a signal to buy. So, we could expect 4/8 Murray to be reached at 3,750 and the crypto could finally reach the psychological level of $4,000.Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell ETH/USD below 3,100. As long as it trades below the 21 SMA, the token will remain under bearish pressure. For a consolidation above 3,150, we should avoid selling or wait for a confirmation for a technical rebound.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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NZ dollar rebounds on sticky inflation report
Apr 17, 2024 | 07:16 amThe New Zealand dollar has bounced back with strong gains on Wednesday, ending a nasty slide of 3.4% which started last week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5907, up 0.45%. New Zealand inflation falls less than expected New Zealand’s CPI continued to ease in the first quarter but the markets were […]
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Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks. UK, 18:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 17, 2024 | 07:00 amAt 18:00 (GMT+2), the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will give a speech, in which investors hope to hear comments on the steps already taken in the field of monetary policy aimed at slowing the rate of record inflation, as well as forecasts for the development of the national economy in the context of global instability. Read more
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Analysis for the EUR/USD pair on April 17th. Jerome Powell didn't help the dollar much
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:56 amThe wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair remains unchanged. Currently, we observe the construction of the presumed wave 3 in 3 or c from the downtrend section. If this is indeed the case, the decline in quotes will continue for quite some time, as the first wave of this section completed its construction near the 1.0450 mark. Therefore, the third wave of this trend section should end below.The market slowly reduces demand for the euro, although the news background fully supports the US dollar. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.0955 level, which equates to 61.8% Fibonacci, indicated the completion of the construction of wave 2 in 3 or c. Therefore, there is potential for a decline in the pair, and it is significant.Is there a probability of a different wave analysis? There is always a possibility. However, if since October 3 of last year, we have observed a new uptrend section, then the last downtrend wave does not fit into any structure, which cannot be. Therefore, an upward section is possible only with a strong complication of the wave analysis.The euro remains in an unfavorable position due to the news background.The EUR/USD pair rose by 20 basis points on Wednesday, but the movement in the pair has been horizontal for the third day in a row. We are not inside the third wave in 3 or c from the downtrend section. If this is true, the decline in the quote will continue anyway. However, the market can only reduce or increase demand sometimes. Sometimes, there are days like today or yesterday when the market is calm.It is strange, but today or yesterday, the market had compelling reasons to continue buying the US currency. On Tuesday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke; this was brief and concise: the US economy and labor market are strong, but progress on inflation has stalled. In my recent reviews, I have repeatedly said that we need to remember the FOMC interest rate cut in June. I said this even before the last inflation report indicated a new acceleration. The market has abandoned this idea (according to the CME FedWatch tool), and even Jerome Powell speaks of a lack of progress in reducing consumer prices. However, not so long ago, he noted the progress of 2023 and expected further slowing of price growth. And if there is no progress, then there is no reason to lower rates either. I feel that those analysts who expect a transition to a more "dovish" policy no earlier than December 2024 are right.General conclusions.Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the construction of a bearish wave set continues. Waves 2 or b and 2 in 3 or c are completed, so in the near future, I expect the continuation of the construction of an impulsive downward wave 3 in 3 or c with a significant decrease in the pair. I continue to consider selling with targets around the calculated mark of 1.0463, as the news background remains on the side of the dollar. The necessary sell signal near the 1.0880 mark was formed (an unsuccessful attempt to break through).On a larger wave scale, the presumed wave 2 or b, which in length exceeded 61.8% Fibonacci from the first wave, may be completed. If this is indeed the case, then the scenario with the construction of wave 3 or c and a decrease in the pair below the 4-figure has begun to be implemented.The main principles of my analysis are:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play, and they often change.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Remember protective stop-loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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USDCHF battles at key moving averages, hinting at short-term bias
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:55 amThe USDCHF as it drifted lower in trading today. Yields are down. The market digested the Fed comments yesterday. Nevertheless, the Swiss National Bank did cut rates at their last meeting. The Federal Reserve comments from Fed's Powell and Fed Gov. Jefferson yesterday suggested the Fed is on hold for an extended period of time. That should support the USDCHF all things equal.From a technical perspective however, the price is back below its 100-day moving average of 0.91216, but above it to hundred hour moving average 0.90897 (and moving higher). Those levels will help to define the short-term bias for the pair. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Analysis for GBP/USD pair on April 17th. British inflation overtakes American inflation
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:49 amThe wave analysis for the GBP/USD pair remains quite complex, but it may become simpler in the coming weeks. A successful attempt to break through the Fibonacci level of 50.0% indicates the market's readiness to build a downward wave 3 or c. If this wave continues to develop, the wave pattern will become much simpler, and the threat of complicating the wave analysis will disappear.As I noted, the wave pattern should be simple and understandable. However, simplicity and understanding have been lacking in recent months. For a long time, the pair has been in a sideways movement and only now has real chances of building an impulsive wave that has emerged.In the current situation, my readers can only hope for the formation of wave 3 or c, the targets of which are located below the low of wave 1 or a. Therefore, the pound should decline by another minimum of 500-600 basis points. The news background supports the US currency, and after breaking through the level of 1.2469 (50.0% Fibonacci), the psychological barrier for sellers has been lifted.The pound may continue to decline today. The GBP/USD pair rose by 35 basis points on Wednesday. The only report of the day released so far is inflation in the UK. And it must be said that the market had the right to react to it as it eventually did. The Consumer Price Index fell in March to 3.2% annually, and core inflation was 4.2%, also showing a slowdown. One might ask: why didn't demand for the British currency continue to decline? The answer is simple: the market expected an even greater slowdown in consumer prices.The market tends to get ahead and expect too much from central banks or individual indicators. So today, inflation and core inflation have decreased, which means that the Bank of England is one step closer to its first monetary policy easing. At the same time, the Fed has taken two steps back, and now the British regulator may start lowering rates earlier. Recall that at the beginning of the year, the market expected the Bank of England to start lowering rates by the fourth quarter. However, it has already become clear in April that the Fed's rates may start falling by the fourth quarter, and the Bank of England's rates may start falling this summer.Based on this, the pound has again become a hostage to overly high market expectations. It has started to build a new downward wave, but now it needs this wave to develop. If the market continues to believe that inflation should decrease by 0.5% per month, it will constantly be disappointed. Demand for the British currency continues to decline very reluctantly. The entire wave pattern may be complicated again, and we may not see a new upward wave towards the 1.29 figure within the extended 2 or b.General ConclusionsThe wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair still suggests a decline. At this time, I am still considering selling the pair with targets below the 1.2039 mark, as wave 3 or c is beginning to form. A successful attempt to break through the 1.2472 level, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci, indicates the long-awaited readiness of the market to build a downward wave.On a higher wave scale, the wave pattern is even more eloquent. The downward corrective phase of the trend continues to develop, and its second wave has acquired an elongated shape - at 76.4% of the first wave. An unsuccessful attempt to break through this level could have led to the beginning of the formation of 3 or c.The main principles of my analysis:Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play, and they often change.If there is confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to avoid entering it.There is never a hundred percent certainty in the direction of movement. Remember protective Stop Loss orders.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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USD/JPY: Simple Trading tips for novice traders on April 17th (US session)
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:41 amAnalysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe test of the price at 154.63 occurred when the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point into the market. However, as you can see on the chart, the dollar didn't go anywhere, and all I managed was to exit the purchases with minimal losses. There are no US statistics in the second half of the day, so approaching purchases at annual highs should be extremely cautious, and action should be taken after calculating all the risks. Any intervention by the Bank of Japan at current levels may make many traders regret buying the dollar. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when reaching the entry point around 154.80 (green line) to rise to 155.15 (thicker green line on the chart). I will exit purchases around 155.15 and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It's unlikely to count on the pair's rise today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.50 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 154.80 and 155.15.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 154.50 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.19, where I will exit sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of an unsuccessful breakout of the annual maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.80 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.50 and 154.19.What's on the chart:Thin green line – entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument.Thick green line – the presumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument.Thick red line – the presumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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GBP/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 17th (US session)
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:35 amAnalysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the British PoundThe price test at 1.2448 in the first half coincided with the moment of the MACD indicator's upward movement from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the pound to continue the pair's growth observed after the release of fundamental data on the UK. As a result, the pound rose by 20 points, and that was all. News that inflation in the UK turned out worse than economists' forecasts triggered purchases of the pound, but a significant upward surge against the trend did not occur, although it might happen – everything will depend on market sentiment against the backdrop of the absence of important statistics from the US. Usually, it goes like this: no statistics, movement, or movement continues toward the morning trend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.Buy SignalScenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when reaching the entry point around 1.2471 (green line on the chart) to rise to 1.2505 (thicker green line on the chart). I will exit purchases around 1.2505 and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Today, the pound's rise can be expected to continue the morning trend, but be cautious about buying against the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2445 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.2471 and 1.2505.Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the 1.2445 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2416, where I will exit sales and open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves against the backdrop of the absence of buyer activity around the daily maximum, similar to yesterday. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2471 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2445 and 1.2416.What's on the chart:Thin green line – entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument.Thick green line – the presumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument.Thick red line – the presumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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EUR/USD: Simple trading tips for novice traders on April 17th (US session)
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:28 amTrade Analysis and Tips on Trading the European CurrencyThe test of the price at 1.0638 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the euro against the trend, and it turned out to be correct. As a result, the pair didn't move anywhere, and the released data on inflation in the eurozone, which remained unrevised, did not lead to a surge in market volatility, leaving everything unchanged. The only plus in the current situation is the absence of important data on the US economy in the second half of the day, which may allow the euro to continue its upward correction with a new daily high. If buyers do not show themselves at the current levels, pressure on EUR/USD will likely return, and we may see a significant drop in the pair, similar to yesterday. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and#2.Buy SignalScenario #1: today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0652 (green line on the chart) with the target of rising to the level of 1.0685. At 1.0685, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Today, the euro's rise can be expected to continue the correction against the absence of US statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0634 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0652 and 1.0685.Sell SignalScenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the 1.0634 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0606, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro in the opposite direction immediately (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of a lack of buyer activity around the daily high. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0652 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the downward market. Expect a decline towards the opposite level of 1.0634 and 1.0606.Chart Analysis:Thin green line - entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line - entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line - the expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator. When entering the market, using overbought and oversold zones is important.Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be very careful when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 17th (analysis of morning deals)
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:21 amIn my morning forecast, I focused on the level of 1.2450 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The breakout and reverse test from top to bottom of this range led to a signal to buy the pound in continuation of the morning trend, resulting in the pair rising by more than 30 points. The technical picture remained unchanged for the second half of the day.To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:News that inflation in the UK, although decreased, not as quickly as economists expected, led to the strengthening of the British pound in the first half of the day. This allowed the chances of an upward correction of the pair to be maintained, especially against the background of the absence of important US statistics today. Now, buyers will have to prove their presence in the market again, and the formation of a false breakout around 1.2450 will help with this, providing an entry point for buying with the target of rising to the resistance at 1.2493, which we did not reach in the first half of the day. A breakout and test from top to bottom of this range will strengthen the chance of recovery for GBP/USD, leading to new purchases and reaching 1.2539. In case of a breakout above this range, we can talk about a surge to 1.2575, where I plan to take profit. In the scenario of further decline of GBP/USD and absence of buyers at 1.2450 in the second half of the day, and this level has already been tested once today, sellers will have a chance for a larger decline of the pair further along the trend. In this case, I will look for buys around 1.2407. Forming a false breakout will be a suitable option for entering the market. I plan to open long positions on GBP/USD immediately on the rebound from 1.2375, with the target of a correction of 30-35 points within the day.To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:Despite the upward correction of the pair, the chances of growth for the pound are extremely low. Of course, it would be desirable to see how sellers will show themselves around the nearest resistance at 1.2493, where a false breakout will provide a suitable entry point for selling the pound in an attempt to push the intermediate support at 1.2450, which has the properties of the middle of the sideways channel, in which we may get stuck in the coming days. A breakout and reverse test from bottom to top at 1.2450 will increase pressure on the pair, giving bears an advantage and another entry point for selling with the target of updating 1.2407 and 1.2375. The ultimate target will be the low of 1.2340, where I will take profit. In the scenario of a GBP/USD rise and the absence of bears at 1.2493 in the second half of the day, bulls can build a fairly good correction with upward movement toward the resistance at 1.2359. I will also look for sales there only on a false breakout. If there is no activity there as well, I recommend opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2575 with the expectation of a pair rebound down by 30-35 points within the day.The COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9 showed a sharp reduction in long and short positions. Pound buyers left the market faster than sellers, and there are objective reasons for this: the first and main one is high inflationary pressure in the US, which will maintain demand for the dollar, exerting serious pressure on risky assets, including the British pound. The second reason is the soft policy of the Bank of England, which has yet to go anywhere. New statements by regulators could negatively affect the bullish prospects for the pound - especially after the clear position of the ECB last week, which consisted of lowering rates in the eurozone already in early summer this year. In addition, there is a need to maintain a tough stance from the Federal Reserve, and it is hardly worth expecting a strong bullish market in the GBP/USD pair. The last COT report stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 18,352 to 80,000, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 3,190 to 51,748. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,704.Indicator signals:Moving averages:Trading is above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a rise in the pound.Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger Bands:In case of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.2407 will act as support.Description of indicators:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9Bollinger Bands. Period 20Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Kickstart the FX trading day for April 17 w/ at technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:15 amIn the kickstart video for April 17, 2024, I take a look at the three major currency pairs - the EURUSD , USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective and outline the bias, risks, targets, and stories for each. EURUSD: The EURUSD is trading up and down this week, but staying below a swing area between 1.0655 to 1.0675. With the Fed shifting to waiting for longer and the ECB looking toward a June cut, it should keep a lid on the pair. However, you never know the story may change. So understanding the technicals in play is important.USDJPY: The USDJPY continues its move to the upside trading at the highest level since 1990. The caveat is the Bank of Japan may come in to limit the upside via intervention. Traders are looking at the 155.00 area as a ceiling/potential intervention area. Having said that, the buyers at the 38.2% retracement of the last move up (from Friday's low) comes in at 153.94. It would take a move below that level to give the sellers additional confidence. Absent that and the buyers are still winning and in full control.GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has been trading above and below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 2023 low. That level comes in at 1.24646. On the downside, a swing area between 1.2427 and 1.2449 needs to be rebroken to increase the bearish bias. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:11 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.48; (R1) 155.04; More… Intraday bias stays mildly on the upside with 153.89 minor support intact. USD/JPY is still in favor to rise towards 155.20 fibonacci projection level. But upside could be limited there, at least on first attempt, to bring pull back. On the downside, below 153.89 will turn […] The post USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:08 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9132; (R1) 0.9152; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9151 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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EUR/Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 17, 2024 | 06:04 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0625; (R1) 1.0648; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 1.0601 could extend further. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% […] The post EUR/Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 17, 2024 | 05:37 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2397; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2463; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Consolidation from 1.2402 is extending, but upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2538 support turned resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2404 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on April 17th (analysis of morning deals)
Apr 17, 2024 | 05:31 amIn my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.0647 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. Growth and the formation of a false breakout around 1.0647 led to a sell signal, which was not fully realized. After a downward movement of 10 points, the pair returned to 1.0647, where trading occurs. For this reason, I exited short positions and reviewed the technical picture.For opening long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:The inflation data in the eurozone for March of this year was not revised and fully coincided with economists' forecasts, allowing the European currency to somewhat recover its positions in anticipation of updating yesterday's high, which we have yet to reach. Obviously, in the absence of important statistics from the US, apart from speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, there is nothing else on our calendar; euro buyers will likely continue their attempts to push the pair higher. But remember yesterday's scenario, where an unsuccessful consolidation near the daily high led to a significant sell-off. Nevertheless, the trend remains downward. For this reason, I prefer to act only on declines after forming a false breakout around the new support level of 1.0605, formed based on yesterday's results. This will be a suitable option for buying in anticipation of another correction towards 1.0647. A breakout and update from top to bottom of this range will strengthen the pair with a chance of a surge to 1.0686. The ultimate target will be the high of 1.0728, where I will take profit. In the case of further decline of EUR/USD and lack of activity around 1.0605 in the second half of the day, pressure on the euro within the bearish market will only intensify. In this case, I will enter the market only after forming a false breakout around the next support at 1.0569. I plan to open long positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0545 with the target of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.For opening short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:Euro sellers have every chance of further decline. The formation of a false breakout around the new resistance of 1.0647, which has already helped sellers several times over the past couple of days, will be, albeit not perfect, but a scenario for entering short positions with the prospect of updating support at 1.0605. A breakout and consolidation below this range and a reverse test from bottom to top will provide another selling point, with the pair moving towards 1.0569, reinforcing the bearish trend. There, I expect more active participation from major buyers. The ultimate target will be the low of 1.0545, where I will take profit. In case of upward movement of EUR/USD in the second half of the day and the absence of bears at 1.0647, which is more likely, bulls will try to continue the correction. In this case, I will postpone sales until testing the next resistance at 1.0686. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on the rebound from 1.0728 with the target of a downward correction of 30-35 points.In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 9, there was a reduction in long and short positions. The European Central Bank meeting and the soft tone of policymakers, as well as a significant drop in the euro that followed, indicate the problems buyers of risky assets face and will continue to face. Considering that the Federal Reserve's position will remain tight for longer, there is no need to count on a return of demand for the euro. For this reason, I am betting on further development of the bullish trend in the US dollar and a decline in the euro. The COT report states that long non-commercial positions fell by 12,839 to 175,419, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 28,768 to 142,696. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 1,451.Indicator signals:Moving averages:Trading is slightly above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating attempts to push the euro higher.Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1, which differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.Bollinger Bands:In case of decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at around 1.0605 will act as support.Description of indicators:Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.Moving average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands. Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between non-commercial traders' short and long positions.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Crude oil inventories. USA, 16:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 17, 2024 | 05:30 amAt 16:30 (GMT+2), the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) will present a weekly report containing data on changes in the volumes of crude oil, as well as gasoline and distillates in the country. A correction from the current 5.841M barrels to 0.900M barrels is expected, supporting oil quotes. Read more
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USD/JPY Analysis: Strong Buying Saturation Levels - 17 April 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 05:29 amThe US dollar remained near its highest levels in several months against the pound, euro, and other major currencies after the release of more strong economic data.
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The NZD is the strongest, and the USD is the reduced as the NA session begins
Apr 17, 2024 | 05:09 amThe NZD is the strongest and the USD is the weakest as the North Ameican session begins. Yesterday, Chair Powell (and Fed Gov. Jefferson) declined to state that rate cuts were likely to be appropriate this year (omitting is just as good as saying it), which was a shift in the mindset of the Fed. The Chair and Vice Chair stated that inflation was not showing improvement. The market now has September as the month that the Fed may cut rates. In the European morning session today, the U.K.'s consumer price inflation fell to 3.2% YoY, marking the lowest rate in over two years, and lower than February's 3.4%. The reduction was primarily due to a slower rise in food prices compared to the previous year. However, fuel prices did increase. Core inflation also declined to 4.2% from February's 4.5%. Earlier this week, employment data showed a slowdown in core wage growth. The Bank of England has kept its interest rates at their highest since 2008. BOEs Bailey recently said that the U.K. economy is nearing a stage where interest rates could begin to be reduced, observing strong signs of disinflation at full employment. The weekly US mortgage data was released. Applications (and all of the other components) rose despite higher rates:. Mortgage Refinance Index: Increased to 500.7 from 498.3 (Stronger)Purchase Index: Rose to 145.6 from 138.7 (Stronger)US Mortgage Market Index: Grew to 202.1 from 195.7 (Stronger)Mortgage Applications: Jumped to 3.3% from 0.1% (Significantly stronger)30-Year Mortgage Rate: Increased to 7.13% from 7.01% Affordability is at its lowest level since 1980.US stocks are higher. US yield are little changed. In Israel, there was quiet. Yesterday, threats were made by Israel of a retaliatory strike in some form or fashion against Iran.Crude oil today is lower. The private inventory data released late yesterday showed a stronger than expected builder 4.09M barrels, but gasoline and distilates both showed declines. The EIA will release their inventory data at 10:30 AM with expectations of a buildup of 1.373M crude oil stocks. Gasoline is expected to show a drawdown of -0.889M. The private data yesterday came at:A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $0.57 or -0.67% at $84.80. At this time yesterday, the price was at a $84.96Gold is trading up $5.16 or 0.21% at $2387.80. At this time yesterday, the price was $2372.82Silver is trading up $0.40 or 1.41% at $28.46. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.26.Bitcoin currently trades at $62,846 – not far off of the level at this time yesterday. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $62,980In the premarket, the major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 85.03 points. Yesterday, the index gained 63.86 points or 0.17% at 37798.98 (thanks to a 6% gain in UnitedHealth).S&P futures are implying a gain of 15.34 points. Yesterday, the index fell minus 10.41.4 -0.21% at 505140Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 45.10 points. Yesterday, the index fell -19.77 points or -0.12% at 15865.25The European indices are trading higher:German DAX, +0.47%France CAC , +1.29%UK FTSE 100, was 0.66%Spain's Ibex, +1.34%Italy's FTSE MIB, +1.07% (delayed 10 minutes)Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly lower:Japan's Nikkei 225, but is 1.32%China's Shanghai Composite Index, +2.14%Hong Kong's Hang Seng index, +0.02%Australia S&P/ASX index, -0.09%Looking at the US debt market, yields are marginally higher. Yesterday yields moved higher on the back of flight to safety flows reversal, and then stronger retail sales2-year yield 4.964%, unchanged. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.944%5-year yield 4.674%, -0.7 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.658%10-year yield 4.651%, -0.6 basis points. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.682%30-year yield 4.757% unchanged. At this time Friday, the yield was at 4.752%Looking at the treasury yield curve spreads, the yield curve statement over the last 24 hours:The 2-10 year spread is at -31.1 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -30.1 basis pointsThe 2-30 year spread is at -20.8 basis points. At this time Friday, the spread was at -19.2 basis pointsEuropean benchmark 10-year yields are higher: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024 | 05:06 amYesterday, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day mostly flat as the market continues to remain on the backfoot waiting for the Israeli retaliation against Iran. The rising Treasury yields and the stronger US Dollar are also putting a lid on the gains. Fed Chair Powell yesterday didn’t add anything new on the monetary policy front, but he did state that if inflation were to persist, they would just hold rates steady for longer. This might give the market some relief as the bar for rate hikes is set very high. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the first key support level at 15929 following the hot US Retail Sales and the geopolitical news. The price ranged for the entire trading session yesterday as the risk sentiment remained negative. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the low to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking the low to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15453.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the 3-week long range and triggered more bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively to target a break below the 15929 support. After the breakout of the rising wedge, the market started to rollover from the highs and the chances of seeing a correction all the way down to the base of the pattern at 14477 increases by the day. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the red 21 moving average. If we get another pullback, we can expect the sellers to step in around the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for new lows. Alternatively, the sellers can wait for the price to break the low to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just one notable report left tomorrow as we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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GBP/USD Analysis: Upside Bounce Opportunities Still Weak - 17 April 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:49 amAccording to this week's trading, the pound sterling fell against the euro and the US dollar after Britain announced an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate.
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GBP/USD rises as UK inflation higher than expected
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:46 amThe British pound has rebounded after sliding 2.1% over the past week. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2461, up 0.28%. UK inflation drops to 3.2% Inflation in the UK continues to decline but the March release was not as strong as expected. Inflation eased to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% in February […]
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EUR/USD Analysis: Eyes on Inflation Figures and ECB Policy - 17 April 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:39 amAhead of the release of inflation figures for the eurozone, expectations have increased about the proximity of the date of cutting interest rates with the exclusion of the US Federal Reserve.
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Gold Analysis: Is Gold's Bullish Run Over? - 17 April 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:26 amSince the start of trading this week, gold prices have retreated from their record high set on Friday, when they climbed towards the $2,431 an ounce resistance level.
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EUR/USD. April 17th. Jerome Powell supports the dollar
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:20 amOn Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair traded horizontally near the corrective level of 127.2%-1.0619. Consolidating quotes below this level will allow further decline towards the next Fibonacci level at 161.8%-1.0519. There was no retreat from the level of 1.0619. Bears continue to maintain the initiative and exert pressure on the European currency. The wave situation remains unchanged. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the previous wave (from March 21), while the new downward wave broke the last low (from April 2). Thus, we are currently dealing with a "bearish" trend, and there is no sign of its completion. For such a sign to appear, the new upward wave (which has not even begun its formation yet) must surpass the peak of the previous wave (from April 9). Or the new downward wave (which has also not yet begun) should fail to break the last low, which has not yet formed.The background information on Tuesday could have been stronger, but it was still important. Several reports in the European Union and the US did not significantly impact the EUR/USD pair. However, Jerome Powell's evening speech, although not reacted to by the market, could provide long-term support for the American currency. The Federal Reserve President noted that progress in further inflation reduction needs to be made. And this statement means a lot for the Federal Reserve, the market, and the dollar. It indicates that the Fed will postpone the rate cut to a later date. In recent weeks, traders expected monetary policy easing to start in June, but Powell clarified that this could be forgotten. Thus, the Fed will maintain the rate at its current level while the ECB gradually starts reducing it. The increasing difference in borrowing costs will support bearish traders. On the 4-hour chart, the pair fell to the corrective level of 23.6%-1.0644 and consolidated below it. The "bullish" divergence on the CCI indicator and the RSI indicator dropping below 20 suggested some growth, but it has not started yet, and the divergence has already been canceled. Consolidation of quotes below the level of 1.0644 increases the probability of further decline towards the next corrective level at 0.0%-1.0450.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:During the last reporting week, speculators closed 12839 long contracts and 28768 short contracts. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" group remains "bullish" but continues to weaken rapidly. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 175 thousand, while short contracts amount to 142 thousand. The situation will continue to change in favor of the bears. The second column shows that the number of short positions increased from 92 thousand to 142 thousand over the last three months. Long positions decreased from 211 thousand to 175 thousand during the same period. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong background in information to resume the "bullish" trend. In the near future, I do not see such a background.News Calendar for the US and the European Union:European Union - Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).On April 17, the economic events calendar contains only the inflation report in the EU in the final reading for March. The impact of the information background on traders' sentiment today may be weak.Forecast for EUR/USD and trader advice:Sales of the pair were possible upon consolidation below the level of 1.0644 on the 4-hour chart, with a target of 1.0519. These trades can be maintained now. I currently do not see potential points for forming buy signals.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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GBP/USD. April 17th. Inflation in Britain is falling, but not as much as the market wants
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:13 amOn the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair executed a new reversal in favor of the American currency on Tuesday and consolidated below the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2453). Thus, the process of the quotes' decline may continue toward the next level at 1.2370. If the pair's rate consolidates above the level of 1.2453, it will work in favor of the pound and show some growth towards the level of 1.2517. The situation with waves still does not raise any questions. The last completed upward wave failed to break the last peak (from March 21), and the new downward wave broke the previous wave's low (April 1). Thus, the trend for the GBP/USD pair remains "bearish," and there are no signs of its completion. The first sign of bulls transitioning to the offensive could be the breakout of the peak on April 9, but bulls need to cover a distance of about 290 points to the zone of 1.2705–1.2715, which is unlikely to happen in the coming days.On Tuesday, important reports on unemployment and wages were released in the UK, but the values did not become a reason for increased trading activity throughout the day. Today, the inflation report in Britain was published. On one hand, the consumer price index slowed down to 3.2% y/y. On the other hand, traders expected a slowdown to 3.1%. The bulls may try to launch another counterattack during the day, but it is unlikely to be successful and strong.The Bank of England is approaching when it will be appropriate to start discussing easing monetary policy. However, 3.2% inflation is still too much to expect a rate cut shortly. The information background has not changed; therefore, bearish traders may continue their attacks. On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the American after forming a "bearish" divergence on the CCI indicator and a decline to 1.2450. The "bullish" divergence on the CCI indicator was canceled, but a second one was immediately formed. The consolidation of the pair's rate below the level of 1.2450 allows counting on a continuation of the decline towards the next corrective level at 50.0% (1.2289). The descending trend channel characterizes the current sentiment of traders as "bearish." Bulls can only count on a slight rise in the pound.Commitments of Traders (COT) report:The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 18352 units, and the number of short contracts decreased by 3190. The overall sentiment of major players remains "bullish" but has been weakening in recent weeks. The gap between long and short contracts is now less than double: 80 thousand versus 52 thousand.There are still prospects for a decline in the pound, but over the last three months, the number of long positions has increased from 61 thousand to 80 thousand, while the number of short positions has hardly changed. Overs will start to unload their buy positions over time, as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been exhausted. The bears have demonstrated their weakness and complete reluctance to go on the offensive over the past few months, but the US inflation report could give them confidence and strength.News Calendar for the US and UK:UK - Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).UK - Speech by Bank of England President Andrew Bailey (16:00 UTC).Wednesday's economic events calendar contains only two entries. Both are important. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be moderate in strength.Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:Sales of the pound could be initiated upon consolidation below the level of 1.2453 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2370. Buys today are possible upon closing above 1.2453 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2517 and 1.2584.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Copper Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024 | 04:03 amCopper continues to be supported by favourable fundamentals although the latest rally is starting to look a bit exhausted. The supporting factors include the recent beat in the Chinese PMIs and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, with the latter jumping into expansion for the first time since 2022. Moreover, we have the PBoC expected to deliver more policy support this year while the other central banks continue to foresee rate cuts at some point although they are willing to keep rates higher for longer if needed. The current environment should be good for growth, so the things to watch will be signs of marked deceleration in growth indicators or increased risks of rate hikes. Copper Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Copper has been struggling to break the key 4.35 level. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 4.18 level where we can also find the confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, the red 21 moving average and the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around these levels to position for a drop into the trendline and eventually target a break below it. Copper Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would come right around the base of the divergent formation near the 4.18 support, although the price will need first to break below the black minor trendline to confirm it. Copper Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price rejected the 4.35 level and it’s now falling back to the minor trendline. The buyers will have another opportunity to step in around the trendline to position for a break above the 4.35 resistance. If the price were to break lower though, the sellers will gain control and take the price into the 4.18 support. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024 | 02:52 amThe recent price action in Crude Oil indicates that the market needs some rest as we haven’t seen a sustained rally despite the big geopolitical risk in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. Overall, the fundamentals remain supportive for the market as we’ve been seeing a pickup in economic activity, although the expectations for rate cuts continue to dwindle. The technicals will be important to monitor as a drop below the key $83 support zone could start to signal a turnaround in the bullish trend.WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that Crude Oil got stuck in a consolidation lately with a slight bearish tilt as the price continues to pull back into the key $83 support zone. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in as they will also find the confluence of the trendline, the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop back into the lows. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price is breaking below another minor trendline which should see some sellers piling in to target a drop into the major trendline for a pullback. There’s not much else we can glean from this chart, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation that’s been going on since last Monday. We can also see that we have a downward counter-trendline where the sellers piled in for a better entry to target a drop into the major trendline. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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Video market update for April 17, 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 02:46 amPotential for the further drop on NAS100The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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GBP/USD Forex Signal: High UK CPI Makes Consolidation Less Bearish - 17 April 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 02:45 amPotential short trade from $1.2500 area looks interesting.
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EUR/CHF Technical: Bullish exhaustion condition detected after 2-month of rallies
Apr 17, 2024 | 02:24 amA bolder dovish ECB increases the likelihood of a yield premium shrinkage of Eurozone sovereign bonds over Switzerland sovereign bonds. The recent 2-month of rallies seen in the EUR/CHF have been overstretched with bearish momentum conditions flashed out. EUR/CHF is at risk of shaping a short-term mean reversion decline within a medium-term uptrend phase. Watch […]
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Forex forecast 04/17/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold, Bitcoin and Ethereum from Sebastian Seliga
Apr 17, 2024 | 02:03 amWe introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.Useful links:My other articles are available in this section: https://www.instaforex.com/analytics_authors?author=46InstaForex course for beginners: https://www.instaforex.com/distance_training_programPopular Analytics: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysisOpen trading account: https://www.instaforex.com/fast_open_new_accountImportant: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseligaThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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GBPJPY Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024 | 01:33 amGBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with a big jump in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased.The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The market expects the first rate cut in August.JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading indicator for National CPI, came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.GBPJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY bounced on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around the lower bound of the rising channel and extended the rally into the 193.00 handle. The buyers are targeting the upper bound of the channel around the 195.00 handle, but they will need to break the cycle high first to extend the rally further. The sellers, on the other hand, might want to step in around the cycle high with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel targeting a break below it. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price is now at a key resistance zone around the 192.85 level where the pair got rejected from several times. The UK data has been pretty strong and continues to point to higher rates for longer for the BoE, so the buyers have the fundamentals on their side to try a breakout. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in again at this resistance to position for a drop back into the lower bound of the channel. GBPJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the pair printing higher lows recently which points to bullish momentum. If the breakout were to fail and the price were to fall below the black trendline, the sellers will regain control and push the price back into the lower bound of the channel as the buyers will likely fold at that point. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI and the UK Retail Sales. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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EUR/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 17
Apr 17, 2024 | 01:08 amOverview of yesterday's trading and tips on EUR/USDThe first price test of 1.0637 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply moved up from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential near the daily high. The second test of this price came at a time when the MACD was already in overbought territory. As a result, the pair fell by more than 20 pips. Good data on the ZEW business sentiment index for the euro area, as well as German reports on the ZEW business sentiment index, the ZEW current situation index and the balance of foreign trade supported the euro in the morning, while a weak US construction report, published during the US session, buoyed the single currency as well. However, the more expensive the euro became, the more there were those willing to sell it further down the trend.Today, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index may provide impetus, and I advise you to pay attention to the main CPI - the so-called basic prices. If it sharply decreases, this will strengthen the chances of a European Central Bank rate cut in the near future. If the market ignores the report, then the EUR/USD may correct higher. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No 1 and No 2.Buy signalScenario No 1. Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches 1.0638 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to the level of 1.0672. At the level of 1.0672, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro to rise today on the condition of good data on the eurozone. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.0615 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0638 and 1.0672.Sell signalScenario No 1. I plan to sell the euro after EUR/USD reaches the level of 1.0615 plotted by the red line on the chart. The target will be the level of 1.0585, where I am going to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from the level). Pressure on EUR/USD will increase if it fails to consolidate in the area of the daily high. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No 2. I am also going to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0638 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.0615 and 1.0585.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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GBP/USD: trading tips for beginners for European session on April 17
Apr 17, 2024 | 01:08 amOverview of yesterday's trading and tips on GBP/USDThe first price test of 1.2455 in the afternoon occurred at a time when the MACD indicator sharply moved up from the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. The second test of this price came at a time when the MACD was already in overbought territory, and traders could use the 2nd scenario to sell the pound within the downtrend. As a result, the pair fell by more than 30 pips. The weak UK unemployment report affected the bulls' mood, and only the mixed data on the US real estate market helped traders with the bullish correction. Today, the pound rose after the UK inflation data. The news that prices are not slowing down as much as economists expected fueled buying, as it may affect the Bank of England's plans to start cutting interest rates this summer. From a technical perspective, a correction is necessary, but don't forget that the pair is still following a downtrend. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.Buy signalScenario No. 1. I plan to buy the pound today when GBP/USD reaches the entry point around 1.2448 plotted by the green line on the chart, aiming for growth to 1.2499 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. In the area of 1.2499, I'm going to close long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). You can count on the pound's growth today within the framework of a bullish correction. Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price of 1.2415 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the instrument and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2448 and 1.2499.Sell signalScenario No. 1. I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.2415 has been tested (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be 1.2369, where I am going to close sell positions and also immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the upward direction from that level). You can sell the pound while the downward trend continues, especially after an unsuccessful attempt to grow in the first half of the day. Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.2448 at the time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite level of 1.2415 and 1.2369.What's on the chart:The thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.The thick green line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.The thin red line is the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.The thick red line is the price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD line: it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the marketImportant: Novice traders in the cryptocurrency market need to be very cautious when making decisions to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.Remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneously making trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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EURUSD Technical Analysis
Apr 17, 2024 | 00:10 amUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. EURThe ECB left interest rates unchanged as expected and opened the door for a rate cut in June.The recent Eurozone CPI missed expectations.The labour market remains historically tight with the unemployment rate hovering at record lows.The latest Eurozone PMIs beat expectations on the Services side while the Manufacturing one missed dropping further in contraction.The market expects the ECB to cut rates in June. EURUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke the key 1.07 support and extended the drop into the 1.06 handle as the divergence between the Fed and the ECB became stronger. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the 1.07 handle where they will find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the moving averages. The buyers, on the other hand, will need to break above that resistance zone to start targeting new highs. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price has started to diverge with the MACD around the 1.06 handle. This is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for a pullback after such a huge selloff. The buyers might start to pile in around these levels with a defined risk below the 1.06 handle to position for a rally into the 1.07 resistance. EURUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the divergence with the MACD and we can also notice that the recent price action formed what looks like a descending triangle. The price can break on either side of the pattern but what follows next is generally a sustained move in the direction of the breakout. In this case, if we get a break to the downside, we can expect the sellers to increase the bearish bets and take the pair into the 1.05 handle. On the other hand, if we get a break to the upside, the buyers should increase the bullish bets into the 1.07 resistance. Upcoming EventsThis week the only notable report left is the US Jobless Claims figures tomorrow. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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Consumer price index. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 17, 2024 | 00:00 amAt 11:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index of EU countries will be published. It is the main indicator of inflation and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc. It has a significant impact on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may change from 0.6% to 0.8% MoM and from 2.6% to 2.4% YoY, while the core reading may rise from 0.7% to 1.1% MoM and decrease from 3.1% to 2.9% YoY. Read more
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Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 17, 2024
Apr 17, 2024 | 00:00 amUS industrial production has stopped declining, but it has not grown either. The -0.2% decline was expected to be replaced by 0.6% growth. However, that didn't happen. What's remarkable is that although the US dollar is clearly overbought, the EUR/USD pair did not rebound after the data was published. The market continues to be stagnant. And this is likely due to the stark contrast between European and US macro data. Clearly, things are going much better in the US. Moreover, yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed all the hawkish statements made by his subordinates a week earlier. Of course, the head of the US central bank did not even mention the possibility of raising rates, but he did suggest that interest rates could stay high for a longer period. Overall, Powell didn't say anything new, but he did provide some moral support to the dollar.Today, the economic calendar is empty. There is no need to consider the eurozone inflation data, as this is just a final estimate, which should only confirm the preliminary estimate. Only in extremely rare cases do these data diverge. This is a kind of force majeure. So nothing should prevent a local rebound, which the market desperately needs.Although the euro is oversold and the dollar is overbought, the quote continues to stay at the low of the downward cycle. This indicates clear pressure from the information flow, which, contrary to technical analysis, does not provide the opportunity for the pair to start a correction. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI is hovering in the oversold zone, which suggests that the instrument should be due for a price correction.On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed downwards, corresponding to the direction of the downward cycle.OutlookIn order to increase the volume of short positions despite signs of oversold conditions, the price must settle below the level of 1.0600. In this case, the quote could move towards the 2023 local low. Otherwise, the area around the 1.0600 level may act as support, leading to a rebound.Comprehensive indicator analysis in the short-term and intraday periods indicates a downward cycle.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:57 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0595; (P) 1.0625; (R1) 1.0648; More… Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.0601 temporary low. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of 1.0601 will resume the decline from 1.1138 to 100% projection of 1.1138 to […] The post EUR/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:54 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 154.18; (P) 154.48; (R1) 155.04; More… Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays on the upside at this point. Current up trend should target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 153.89 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally. In the bigger picture, current […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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AUD/USD Forex Signal: Sell-Off Gains Steam - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:52 pmThe AUD/USD pair continued its freefall on Wednesday as the US dollar rally gained steam.
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GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:51 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2397; (P) 1.2435; (R1) 1.2463; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for more consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2404 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to 1.2538 from 1.2708 at […] The post GBP/USD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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Overview for the GBP/USD pair on April 17th. British inflation could weigh on the pound
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:50 pmThe GBP/USD currency pair also attempted to start an upward correction on Tuesday, but volatility throughout the day was again very low. As seen in the illustration below, what we mean by "low volatility" is clear. Out of the last 30 days, there were only nine days when volatility exceeded 90 points. Another nine days ended with volatility below 50 points, indicating a complete lack of movement. Thus, the British pound has been moving very weakly in recent months.Last week, the pair exited the sideways channel in which it had spent four months, which was an additional "joy" for traders. The market finally considered the entire fundamental and macroeconomic background, which has long been signaling the inevitable rise of the American currency. As with the euro, we want readers to understand us correctly. We do not believe that the dollar should always rise. Or that the dollar will rise for another year. But the current fundamental background, which indicates that the Fed will begin a cycle of easing at an unknown time, and the Bank of England - within the foreseeable future, supports only the dollar, as the Fed's monetary policy will remain "hawkish" even longer than the Bank of England's policy.Recall that the market was expecting the exact opposite at the beginning of the year. Everyone expected rate cuts from the Fed in March. Then, it became clear that March was a miss, and traders switched to June. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in June is 24%. This is when, before the US inflation report for March, the probability exceeded 65%, sometimes even reaching 80%. We have repeatedly said that the market is wrong in its expectations regarding the Fed and Bank of England rates. And based on this erroneous opinion, it conducts illogical trading, which only causes bewilderment. However, the market is starting to come back to earth, so movements become more logical. And if so, you can expect only a decline in the British pound and a rise in the dollar.Today, the inflation report for March will be published in the UK. According to experts' forecasts, the consumer price index will decrease to 3.1% y/y and core inflation to 4.1%. Thus, core inflation will officially be lower than in the US, whose Fed was supposed to cut rates as early as March. Which of the two central banks is then closer to easing monetary policy? If we had assumed earlier that both central banks could start cutting rates simultaneously, now we believe that the Bank of England would be the first, whose rate is already lower.Thus, the overall conclusion can only be one: the pair should continue moving to the south. From a technical point of view, on the 24-hour TF, the pair has been correcting upwards for about half a year, and now it may resume the downward trend that started last summer. If so, the targets for the decline of the British currency are around the 20th level and below. The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 103 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "average." Therefore, on Wednesday, April 17, we expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.2342 and 1.2548. The senior linear regression channel is still sideways, but the downward trend may have resumed. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone again, which may provoke a new rise in the pair. However, the key thing now is the completion of the 4-month flat.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.2421S2 – 1.2390Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.2451R2 – 1.2482R3 – 1.2512Trading recommendations:The GBP/USD currency pair presumably completed the flat on the 24-hour TF, which is the most important thing. We still expect movement only to the south, and now that the level of 1.2500 has been broken, it is possible to consider selling the pair with targets at 1.2390 and 1.2342. Purchasing the British pound under the conditions of the price exiting the sideways channel through the lower boundary is irrelevant. The pair may rebound upwards this week, as the CCI indicator twice entered the oversold zone, but we do not consider it advisable to trade this correction.Explanations for the illustrations:Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. The trend is strong now if both are directed in the same direction.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) means a trend reversal towards the opposite side is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:49 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9111; (P) 0.9132; (R1) 0.9152; More…. USD/CHF is extending consolidation from 0.9151 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium […] The post USD/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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AUD/USD Daily Report
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:46 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.6378; (P) 0.6413; (R1) 0.6437; More… Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment. Current fall is part of the larger down trend and should target 61.8% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6378. Decisive break there will pave the way to 0.6269 low, and possibly further to 100% […] The post AUD/USD Daily Report appeared first on Action Forex.
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Overview for the EUR/USD pair on April 17th. There is no single reason for the euro to rise
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:45 pmThe EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Tuesday, although a significant amount of macroeconomic statistics was scheduled for the day. However, we warned yesterday that all reports of the day are secondary. They can provoke a local market reaction of 20–30–40 points but cannot globally influence market sentiment. And the market sentiment now is clearly "bearish." It should have been so for the past 4-5 months. And it has been so since last summer. It is enough to look at the 24-hour TF and see it yourself.Last summer, a peak was set around the level of 1.1275. Since then, we have seen a strong downward impulse, followed by a fairly strong upward correction, which many traders mistakenly took for the resumption of the global uptrend. However, we have repeatedly said that a corresponding fundamental background is required for a global trend. Not macroeconomic reports, the nature of which changes from month to month, but rather a fundamental background. Therefore, over the past months, we have constantly reiterated that the fundamental background supports only the US dollar.The foundation is like the Titanic in the Atlantic Ocean. It must change its course slowly and briskly. Even a slight deviation from the course takes quite a lot of time. It may seem to someone that we say the same thing every day: the dollar should rise, and the euro should fall. However, what else can be said if such a foundation has formed at this time?Moreover, the macroeconomic background also supports only the dollar. Reports in the European Union have long left much to be desired. The EU economy has been showing almost zero growth for several quarters. At the same time, the American economy is pleasing us practically every month with high indicators of labor market conditions, unemployment, business activity, and GDP.Moreover, if, at the beginning of the year, the European currency could show growth based on market expectations of the Fed's swift transition to a "dovish" monetary policy, now many major banks openly state that the first-rate cut could well happen in December 2024 or 2025. And what other conclusions can be drawn if inflation in the US rises and exceeds the target level by almost two times?Technically, the dollar is also on the side. On the daily TF, it is seen that the price is below all lines of the Ichimoku indicator. Yesterday, it tested the level of 1.0608, which equals 38.2% according to Fibonacci. Thus, an upward correction is possible, but the trend has been downward for almost a year. Therefore, in any case, we continue to expect only a decline from the pair. When the Fed is close to lowering rates for the first time, the American currency will depreciate. But until then, the ECB may lower its rates two or three times, significantly increasing the divergence with the Fed's rates. And the EUR/USD currency pair may have time to fall to price parity. We do not believe the euro should always be worth exactly 1 dollar. The euro should fall to this level, and then a new fundamental background may cause the currency of the European Union to rise.The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past five trading days as of April 17 is 80 points and is characterized as "average." We expect movement of the pair between the levels of 1.0559 and 1.0719 on Wednesday. The senior linear regression channel is still sideways, but the downward trend persists. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone, but we expect only a small upward correction. And it may start after a few days.Nearest support levels:S1 – 1.0620S2 – 1.0559S3 – 1.0498Nearest resistance levels:R1 – 1.0681R2 – 1.0742R3 – 1.0803Trading recommendations:As we expected, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its downward trend. The European currency should continue to decline in almost any case, so we continue to consider sales with targets at 1.0559 and 1.0498. We consider purchases impractical even if the price consolidates above the moving average line. The fundamental background is that growth can only be expected from the dollar.Explanations for the illustrations:Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. The trend is strong now if both are directed in the same direction.The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted now.Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.Volatility levels (red lines) - the likely price channel the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators.CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold zone (below -250) or the overbought zone (above +250) means a trend reversal towards the opposite side is approaching.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:44 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3787; (P) 1.3816; (R1) 1.3859; More… Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Decisive break of 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.3980. On the downside, below 1.3773 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and […] The post USD/CAD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:41 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 191.68; (P) 192.24; (R1) 192.84; More.. Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, break of 193.51 will resume larger up trend to 195.86 long term resistance. Nevertheless, decisive break of 189.97 support will indicate that it’s at least correcting the rise from 178.32, and target 38.2% […] The post GBP/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:39 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 163.77; (P) 164.22; (R1) 164.77; More… Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as range trading continues. On the upside, firm break of 165.33 will resume larger up trend towards 169.96 key resistance next. However, decisive break of 162.26 support will argue that it’s at least correcting the rise from 153.15, and target […] The post EUR/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:37 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9666; (P) 0.9704; (R1) 0.9733; More… Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains mildly on the downside. Correction from 0.9847 could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.9252 to 0.9847 at 0.9620. But strong support is expected from there to contain downside to bring rebound, and set the range for the consolidation pattern from 0.9847. […] The post EUR/CHF Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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EUR/AUD Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:33 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6502; (P) 1.6560; (R1) 1.6648; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.6368 would target 1.6677 resistance next. Break there will confirm that correction from 1.6742 has completed, and bring further rally through this high. On the downside, though, below 1.6511 minor support will […] The post EUR/AUD Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bearish Outlook as BTC Halving Nears - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 23:20 pmBitcoin price continued its sell-off on Wednesday as bears attempted to push it to the crucial support level at $60,000.
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USDCHF Technical Analysis
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:58 pmUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CHFThe SNB cut interest rates by 25 bps bringing the policy rate to 1.50% vs. 1.75% prior.The latest Switzerland CPI missed expectations by a big margin.The Unemployment Rate remains steady at cycle lows.The Manufacturing PMI improved further while the Services PMI saw a big drop. Both the measures are in contraction.The market expects the SNB to cut rates again in June.USDCHF Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCHF has been consolidating around the key resistance at 0.9112. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the red 21 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDCHF Technical Analysis – 4-hour TimeframeOn the 4-hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback would stand right around the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, but the price will first need to break below the 0.91 handle to confirm it. USDCHF Technical Analysis – 1-hour TimeframeOn the 1-hour chart, we can see that the price has been ranging between the 0.91 support and the 0.9145 resistance. The buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into new highs, while the sellers will want to see the price breaking lower to target a drop into the 0.90 handle. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we will get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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EUR/USD Forex Signal: Brief Rebound Likely as it Gets Overbought - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:54 pmThe EUR/USD exchange rate has crashed hard this week as investors predict that the Fed and the ECB will move in different directions this year.
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USD/MXN Forecast: USD Rallies Against Peso - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:42 pmThe US dollar shot higher during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking above the 17 MXN level, and breaking well above the 50-Day EMA.
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USD/NOK Forecast: USD Gains Strength - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:37 pmThe US dollar initially fell against the Norwegian krone but has turned around to show signs of life again.
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USD Runs Out of Momentum: Opportunities in USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:37 pmThe US dollar seems to be running out of a little bit of momentum, as we have seen a lot of gains recently, and now it looks like some consolidation could be coming into the picture.
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S&P 500 Forecast: Attempts to Stabilize - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:31 pmThe S&P 500 has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like we are trying to recover after the recent plunge.
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Dax Forecast: Looking for Buyers - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:28 pmThe DAX fell a bit during the early hours on Tuesday, but it does look like the 50 day EMA is going to have some type of influence.
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NASDAQ Forecast: Looks for Buyers at Support - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:28 pmThe NASDAQ 100 initially fell a bit during the trading session on Tuesday but has turned around to show signs of life.
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GBP/JPY Forecast: Stretching Higher Against JPY - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:21 pmThe British pound continues to grind higher against the Japanese yen as the interest rate differential by far is the biggest driver.
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Bitcoin Forex Signal: Bouncing Off $60K Support - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:17 pmBitcoin initially plunged during the trading session on Tuesday, breaking below the 50-day EMA, but has since seen buyers come back into the market in order to pick it up.
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ETH/USD Forecast: Pay Attention to Major Level - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:12 pmEthereum was fairly noisy during the trading session on Tuesday, but what has caught my attention is twofold.
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Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 17. Simple tips for beginners
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:11 pmAnalyzing Tuesday's trades:EUR/USD on 1H chart EUR/USD failed to either extend its downward movement or initiate a bullish correction on Tuesday. Volatility remained low for the second consecutive day, despite macroeconomic events and fundamentals. In particular, economic expectation indexes from the ZEW Institute were published in the EU. As we mentioned earlier, these reports were considered secondary of importance and were not expected to have any impact on the pair's movement. This turned out to be the case. In addition, Federal Reserve representative Mary Daly spoke, who said that there is "no urgency" to cut US interest rates, and interest rates will start to decline when inflation approaches the target level.In addition to this, the US published several reports. Data on the construction sector turned out to be worse than forecast, while industrial production was in line with expectations. Therefore, the dollar did not receive support, but neither did it decline. The downtrend persists.EUR/USD on 5M chart Two trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe, albeit not precise ones. The pair bounced twice from the area of 1.0611-1.0618, but it didn't make sense to execute the second signal as it was formed quite late. Nevertheless, it was still a signal, and traders could enter the market with long positions. Beginners could not earn profit from the first long position because the price did not reach the target level of 1.0668.Trading tips on Wednesday:On the hourly chart, the downtrend persists. We believe that the euro should continue to fall, as it is still too high, and in general, the trend is headed downwards. The recent macro data have provided full support for the US dollar. The fundamental background indicates that the European Central Bank will start lowering rates at the next meeting, while the Fed will do so much later.The pair may attempt another correction since the price has not breached the level of 1.0618. If the price consolidates below it today, then we can expect the euro to fall towards 1.0568.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.0483, 1.0526, 1.0568, 1.0611-1.0618, 1.0668, 1.0725, 1.0785-1.0797, 1.0838-1.0856, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940, 1.0971-1.0981. The final value of the euro area Consumer Price Index for March is due on Wednesday (which is always less interesting than the first), while there is nothing interesting in the US. Thus, most likely, we are in for a third consecutive dull day.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginning traders should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Trading plan for GBP/USD on April 17. Simple tips for beginners
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:11 pmAnalyzing Tuesday's trades:GBP/USD on 1H chart The GBP/USD pair generally maintained a downward bias on Tuesday and it even edged down. The UK released three relatively important reports, but it is difficult to highlight which one was the most significant. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, although it was forecasted to be no more than 4.0%. Average earnings increased by 5.6%, which is in line with forecasts. And the number of jobless claims turned out to be lower than expected. Therefore, we can't confirm whether these reports were disappointing for the pound or, conversely, strong.In the second half of the day, the US published mixed data as well. Of course, all these reports triggered a minor market reaction, but as we warned you, they did not affect the overall market trend and sentiment. Therefore, the pound may fall further.GBP/USD on 5M chart Only one sell signal was formed on the 5-minute timeframe, and it was around the level of 1.2457. The signal was not very accurate, but there were enough price reversals during the day due to the significant amount of macro data. After the signal was formed, beginners could enter the market with short positions. Overall, the pair fell by about 25-30 pips. The trade should have been manually closed as no other signals were formed. Therefore, it was possible to make a small profit from it.Trading tips on Wednesday:On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair finally has real technical grounds for forming a downward trend. After surpassing the level of 1.2502, traders may expect a significant decline from the pound. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop continues to support the dollar to a much greater extent than the British one. Therefore, we only expect downward movements from the pair.On Wednesday, novice traders can look for new sell signals below the level of 1.2502. Short positions can be opened based on yesterday's signal around the level of 1.2457. However, today, the pound will depend on the UK inflation report, which will be released in two hours. The pound can still rise.The key levels on the 5M chart are 1.2270, 1.2310, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2457, 1.2502, 1.2544, 1.2605-1.2611, 1.2648, 1.2691, 1.2725, 1.2787-1.2791. The UK Consumer Price Index for March will be published today. This is a crucial report that directly affects the Bank of England's monetary policy, so the market could show a strong reaction. The pound's movement will depend on how much inflation slows down in March.Basic trading rules:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Key events on April 17: fundamental analysis for beginners
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:11 pmAnalysis of macroeconomic reports: There are fewer macroeconomic events on Wednesday, but one of them is crucial. There won't be any interesting events in the European Union and the US. However, in the United Kingdom, the inflation report for March will be published. Why is it so important? Inflation in the UK may fall to 3.1%. If this happens, then UK inflation will be lower than that of the US. Therefore, the Bank of England may begin discussions about monetary policy easing in the near future. Recall that earlier, the market expected the Federal Reserve to be the first central bank to lower rates. However, objective reality shows that the BoE may act first. Therefore, a drop to 3.1% or even lower could trigger a serious collapse of the British currency.Analysis of fundamental events: There will be quite a few fundamental events on Wednesday. Firstly, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak. Yesterday he did not reveal anything important, but he might announce something significant today. Secondly, Isabelle Schnabel will speak, who may confirm that the European Central Bank is ready to start easing monetary policy in June. Thirdly, there will be speeches by representatives of the Federal Reserve, Loretta Mester and Michelle Bowman, who may comment on the latest US inflation report. However, the main event is the UK inflation report.General conclusion:Today, one key event is expected. Almost all the speeches are scheduled for the evening, so they will not have any impact on the pair's movement during the day. However, the inflation report in Britain could significantly affect the movement of the GBP/USD pair. We expect the pound to fall.Basic rules of a trading system:1) Signal strength is determined by the time taken for its formation (either a bounce or level breach). A shorter formation time indicates a stronger signal.2) If two or more trades around a certain level are initiated based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be disregarded.3) In a flat market, any currency pair can produce multiple false signals or none at all. In any case, the flat trend is not the best condition for trading.4) Trading activities are confined between the onset of the European session and mid-way through the U.S. session, after which all open trades should be manually closed.5) On the 30-minute timeframe, trades based on MACD signals are only advisable amidst substantial volatility and an established trend, confirmed either by a trendline or trend channel.6) If two levels lie closely together (ranging from 5 to 15 pips apart), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.How to read charts:Support and Resistance price levels can serve as targets when buying or selling. You can place Take Profit levels near them.Red lines represent channels or trend lines, depicting the current market trend and indicating the preferable trading direction.The MACD(14,22,3) indicator, encompassing both the histogram and signal line, acts as an auxiliary tool and can also be used as a signal source.Significant speeches and reports (always noted in the news calendar) can profoundly influence the price dynamics. Hence, trading during their release calls for heightened caution. It may be reasonable to exit the market to prevent abrupt price reversals against the prevailing trend.Beginners should always remember that not every trade will yield profit. Establishing a clear strategy coupled with sound money management is the cornerstone of sustained trading success.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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AUD/CHF Forecast: Looking for a Bounce - 17 April 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 22:06 pmThe Australian dollar has fallen during the trading session on Tuesday to reach the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA indicators simultaneously against the Swiss franc.
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EUR/GBP Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 21:45 pmDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8533; (P) 0.8541; (R1) 0.8555; More… Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 0.8529 support will argue that the corrective recovery from 0.8497 has completed at 0.8601. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 0.8497 low next. On the upside, break […] The post EUR/GBP Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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Consumer price index. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 21:00 pmAt 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on the consumer price index will be published in the UK. It is the main indicator of inflation in the country and determines changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services (food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, etc.), and also has a significant impact on decisions on monetary policy. It may change from 3.4% to 3.1% YoY and from 0.6% to 0.7% MoM. Read more
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Crude Oil Commodity Asset, Wednesday April 17, 2024.
Apr 16, 2024 | 20:20 pmWith the existence of Crude Oil commodity price movements in the Equisidant Channel which have a downward slope and the appearance of hidden deviations on the 4-hour chart, #CL in the near future has the potential to fall to test level 84.73. If this level is successfully broken downwards then level 84.07 will be the target The main thing he will aim for and if the momentum and volatility are supportive then level 82.61 will be the next target but all of these weakening scenarios will automatically cancel if #CL suddenly strengthens again until it breaks above level 87.63.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of USD/JPY Main Currency Pairs, Wednesday April 17, 2024.
Apr 16, 2024 | 20:20 pmEven though the condition of the main currency pair USD/JPY on the 4-hour chart is in a strengthening condition, which is confirmed by its price movement moving above WMA 30 Shift 2, the appearance of deviations between price movements and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator gives a clue that in the near future USD /JPY has the potential to be corrected downwards, as long as it does not return to its initial bias (strengthening) until it breaks above the 155.00 level, then USD/JPY has the potential to weaken down to the 153.94 level and if the momentum and volatility are supportive then the 1552.61 level will be the next target to be aimed at.(Disclaimer)The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Forecast for GBP/USD on April 17, 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 20:07 pmGBP/USDAfter the pound fell below the target support at 1.2427 on Tuesday, this morning it is trying to consolidate below it. Such consolidation is particularly important at the moment, as the Marlin oscillator is trying to leave the upper half of its own descending channel, which could push the price to consolidate above the level of 1.2427. This would provide an opportunity for the price to correct higher so it can reach the 1.2530 area, where February support levels are located.Consolidation below 1.2427 will make it possible for the price to fall towards 1.2370. Next, the target range of 1.2287-1.2307 will come into play. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD indicator line (1.2510) acts as resistance for the bulls, noticeably below the resistance area of 1.2530. Perhaps the correction will not be as high.The price and the oscillator have formed a convergence. At the very least, consolidation above the level of 1.2427 is probable before the pound falls further.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 17, 2024
Apr 16, 2024 | 20:07 pmEUR/USDYesterday, the euro attempted to return to the range of 1.0636/56, but the bears were stronger, and eventually the price settled below the range. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is turning upwards on the daily chart, prompting the price to make another attempt to penetrate the range.However, the target support at 1.0567 is already close, so the euro may test it before embarking on a corrective rise into the mentioned range. In this scenario, it will stay in the range of 1.0636/56. On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating below the range of 1.0636/56 while the Marlin oscillator is rising.If the oscillator continues to exert pressure and it enters the positive zone, the price may attempt to break above this range for a corrective rise. The bullish target is the level of 1.0724, which is near the MACD line. If Marlin turns downwards from the zero line, the price will continue to fall towards the target support at 1.0567.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
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Trade balance. Japan, 01:50 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 14:50 pmAt 01:50 (GMT+2), March trade balance data will be published in Japan. This indicator records the difference between the amount of payments for exported and imported goods, and its increase is a positive factor for the yen. The negative dynamics may accelerate from −379.4B yen to −810.2B yen, putting pressure on the yen. Read more
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Consumer price index. New Zealand, 00:45 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 14:00 pmAt 00:45 (GMT+2), the Q1 consumer price index will be published in New Zealand, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on. It has a significant influence on the decisions of regulators in monetary policy. It may increase from 0.5% to 0.6% QoQ and consolidate at 4.7% YoY. Read more
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US major stock indices close mixed
Apr 16, 2024 | 13:22 pmThe major US stock indices are ending the day with mixed results. The Dow industrial average closed modestly higher helped by a surge in UnitedHealth. Its shares rose $23.26 or 5.22% to $468.89. The S&P and NASDAQ index both fell modestly. A snapshot of the market closes shows:Dow industrial average rose 63.84 points or 0.17% at 37798.98S&P index fell -10.41 points or -0.21% at 5051.40NASDAQ index fell -19.77 points or -0.12% at 15865.25.The small-cap Russell 2000 was the worst performer with a decline of -8.23 points or -0.42% at 1967.47.Technically looking at the S&P index, the low prices seen this week stalled near the 38.2% retracement and swing area between 5042.24 and 5056.92. Holding support against that level keeps the buyers in play. Moving below the 5042.24 level going forward, would likely lead to more selling/corrective momentum. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Silver bounces off 200 hour MA on the last 2-tests
Apr 16, 2024 | 13:13 pmThe price of silver moved to a high on Friday at $29.79. That got within $0.30 of the 2021 high at $30.09. The 2020 high reached $29.86. So there are 3 highs from 3 different years with $0.30. Those highs are the highest since 2013. Getting above them would open the door to the upside. After reaching the high on Friday, the price started to rotate lower. That move day the price move below the 100 hour MA (blue line) and then the 38.2% of the move up from the March 2024 low (see hourly chart below). However, buyers came in against the 200-hour MA and bounced. The high price on Monday reached up to $29.01 before rotating back lower. Today, the price once again fell below the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below), but found willing buyers at the 200-hour MA for the 2nd time this week (green line on chart below). Once again, buyers leaned and pushed the price higher. So technically, the ceiling is clearly near $30. The technical support is near 200-hour MA (at $27.98). Those technical levels gives traders the targets that need to be broken to either increase the bullish bias (on a break above $30), OR give the sellers some confirmation and confidence on a break below the rising 200-hour MA.Be aware This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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USDCHF consolidates near highs
Apr 16, 2024 | 12:23 pmThe USDCHF has gone nearly an entire day now and only trades in a 31 pips trading range. The average over the last 22-trading days was nearly twice that amount at 60 pips. So buyers and sellers are sparring with each other. Neither one has landed anything close to a knockout blow.Looking at the hourly chart, the ups and downs has now allowed the 100-hour MA to catch up to the price. That MA is at 0.91239. The price is currently trading right around that level. On the downside, there is a swing level at 0.9112. Yes.... the price moved below the level on Friday and Thursday last week, but held the level on Wednesday last week, and again on Monday and Tuesday this week.On the topside, the 0.91469 to 0.9151 area is home to a number of different highs over the last 5 days. At some point, there will be a break and run. The buyers - given the right to left move higher over the last month+ - has the advantage. However, that does not mean a correction can't happen if the lower swing level is broken followed by a break of the 200-hour MA at 0.9081 level. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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API weekly crude oil stocks. USA, 22:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 11:30 amAt 22:30 (GMT+2), a weekly report on the amount of oil reserves, gasoline, and distillate volumes from the American Petroleum Institute (API) will be published. The continuation of the correction from 3.034M barrels may put pressure on oil quotes. Read more
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The NZDUSD reaches toward the Asian session low and lowest level since November 2023
Apr 16, 2024 | 08:49 amThe NZDUSD has been trending to the downside since last week's high near 0.6080. The low price today reached 0.5872. That is just above a swing area between 0.5851 and 0.58699.Support buyers are leaning against the wing area. There is topside resistance near 0.5936 if the buyers can't stay above the 0.58699 level down to 0.58512. A move below 0.58512 would open the door toward the October low at 0.57723. Find out the details of the technicals driving the NZDUSD pair by watching the above video. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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NZ dollar slips ahead of New Zealand inflation
Apr 16, 2024 | 08:42 amThe New Zealand dollar is down for a third straight day and has plunged 3.4% in less than a week. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5881, down 0.36%. New Zealand inflation expected to fall to 4.3% New Zealand’s inflation rate has been dropping and the trend is expected to continue on […]
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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks. USA, 19:15 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 08:15 amAt 19:15 (GMT+2), the head of the US Federal Reserve System (US Fed), Jerome Powell, will give a speech. The official can share his vision of the current situation in the American economy against ongoing geopolitical tensions and hint at the regulator’s further actions in the monetary policy. Read more
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USDCAD stretches toward 2023 and 2022 highs. Key resistance near 1.3859 area.
Apr 16, 2024 | 07:42 amThe USDCAD is continuing its move to the upside after breaking above a key ceiling area near 1.3623 last week. The price today is stretching toward the next resistance targets near 1.3859. Get above that and the 2023 high price at 1.38989 would be the next focus. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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Canadian dollar extends losses as Canada’s inflation rises
Apr 16, 2024 | 07:16 amThe Canadian dollar is down for a fifth straight day and has slipped 1.9% during that time. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3840, up 0.37%. Canada’s inflation rises to 2.9% Canada’s inflation rate for March rose to 2.9% y/y, ticking up from 2.8% in February and above the market forecast of […]
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USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:57 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3744; (P) 1.3769; (R1) 1.3814; More… USD/CAD’s rally from 1.3176 is in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside. Decisive break of 100% projection of 1.3176 to 1.3540 from 1.3477 at 1.3841 will pave the way to 138.2% projection at 1.3980. On the downside, below 1.3773 minor support will turn intraday […] The post USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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USDJPY tumbles but quickly rebounds
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:50 amThe USDJPY hit a downside air pocket after reaching another new high going back to 1990 at 154.76. That is getting close to what people think is a level that the Bank of Japan might look to intervene at 155.00.Anyway the market quickly fell to a low of 153.896 but has since bounced back up toward 154.40.Technically, the price low found support buyers near the 38.2% retracement of the last run to the upside (from the low price on Friday to the high price today). That 38.2% retracement came at 153.929.In the morning kickstart video, I commented that with the USDJPY trading at the highest level since 1990, the sellers have to prove that they can take control. When benchmark target would be to get below the 38.2% -50% retracement of the last trend moved to the upside (see yellow area on the chart above). This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:43 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 153.34; (P) 153.89; (R1) 154.83; More… USD/JPY’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current up trend should target 155.20 fibonacci projection level next. On the downside, below 154.12 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations again, before staging another rally. In the bigger […] The post USD/JPY Daily Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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Kickstart your Forex trading for April 16 w/a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:41 amKickstart your Forex trading for April 16 with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD by watching the above video. What is the bias? What are the risks and targets?. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:32 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9101; (P) 0.9126; (R1) 0.9141; More…. Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation continues below 0.9151. But further rally is expected as long as 0.8996 support holds. Firm break of 0.9151 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8550 to 0.8884 from 0.8728 at 0.9268. In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 […] The post USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:31 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.2421; (P) 1.2460; (R1) 1.2484; More… Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral at this point and more consolidations could be seen. Recovery should be limited by 1.2577 minor resistance to bring another fall. On the downside, firm break of 1.2407 will resume the decline from 1.2892 to 100% projection of 1.2892 to […] The post GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Apr 16, 2024 | 06:11 amDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0608; (P) 1.0636; (R1) 1.0653; More… A temporary low is in place at 1.0601 in EUR/USD with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 1.0723 support turned resistance. On the downside, break of […] The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.
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The EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as the NA session begins
Apr 16, 2024 | 05:11 amAs the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The USD is mostly stronger. Geopolitical risk is still at red hot levels as Isreal War Cabinet meets today to discuss a response to the Iranian attack over the weekend. Meanwhile in the US, the administration is preparing economic sanctions in support. "How far can you push without going too far?" is the tightrope walk that is unwinding. In Europe today there was a dump of data with mixed results. Below is a summary:German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) m/m (EUR): Actual data showed a 0.2% increase, slightly higher than the forecast of 0.1%, and an improvement from the previous -0.1%. This indicates a modest rebound in wholesale prices.UK Claimant Count Change (GBP): The actual change was 10.9K, lower than the forecasted 17.2K but higher than the previous 4.1K. UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP): Actual growth was 5.6%, slightly above the forecast of 5.5% and consistent with the previous 5.6%. This shows stable wage growth over the past three months.UK Unemployment Rate (GBP): The actual unemployment rate was 4.2%, higher than the forecast of 4.0% and the previous 3.9%. Overall, a weakening job picture in the UKItalian Trade Balance (EUR): Italy posted a trade surplus of 6.03 billion euros, surpassing the forecast of 3.44 billion euros and the previous 2.50 billion euros. This significant improvement suggests stronger-than-expected trade performance.Trade Balance (EUR): The actual trade balance was 17.9 billion euros, lower than the forecasted 27.3 billion euros and a decrease from the previous 27.1 billion euros, indicating a weaker trade surplus than expected. German ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR): The sentiment index rose to 42.9, well above the forecast of 35.9 and the previous 31.7, showing increased optimism among financial analysts and institutional investors regarding Germany's economic outlook.EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR): Overall European economic sentiment measured by ZEW increased to 43.9, higher than the forecast of 37.8 and previous 33.5, reflecting an improvement in overall economic confidence.These indicators suggest mixed economic conditions across Europe, with signs of improving sentiment and trade performance in some areas, but issues like rising unemployment in the UK present challenges.In China overnight, they reported stronger GDP at 5.3% vs 4.8% (and up from 5.2% last month). However, Industrial Production (4.5% vs 6.0% est.), and Retail sales were weaker (3.1% vs 5.1% est.). The earnings calendar this morning showed mostly better-than-expected results.Morgan Stanley (MS) Q1 2024 (USD):EPS: $2.02 vs. expectations of $1.66 (BEAT)Revenue: $15.14 billion vs. expectations of $14.41 billion (BEAT)Bank of America Corp (BAC) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $0.83 vs. expectations of $0.77 (BEAT)Revenue: $25.82 billion vs. expectations of $25.46 billion (BEAT)PNC Financial Services Group Inc (PNC) Q1 2024 (USD):EPS: $3.10 vs. expectations of $3.02 (BEAT)Revenue: $5.145 billion vs. expectations of $5.19 billion (MISSED)Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $1.29 vs. expectations of $1.19 (BEAT)Revenue: $4.53 billion vs. expectations of $4.39 billion (BEAT)Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $2.71 vs. expectations of $2.64 (BEAT)Revenue: $21.383 billion vs. expectations of $21.4 billion (MISSED)UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH) Q1 2024 (USD):Adj. EPS: $6.91 vs. expectations of $6.61 (BEAT)Revenue: $99.80 billion vs. expectations of $99.26 billion (BEAT)What earnings are ahead this week? Below is a list of some of the major releases:Tuesday after the close:United Airlines,Interactive Brokers,JB HuntWednesday before the openAbbott,Travelers, U.S. BancorpWednesday after the close:Alcoa,Kinder Morgan,Discover, CSXThursday before the openTSMC (Taiwan semi conductor), Nokia, DH WhartonThursday after the close:Netflix, Intuitive SurgicalFriday before the open:American Express, P&GEuropean Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn recently affirmed that the ECB is on track for a potential interest rate cut in June, provided that there are no inflation setbacks and the economic conditions align with their targets. Rehn emphasized that a decision to cut rates would be contingent on the June assessment confirming that inflation is converging towards the ECB's target. He noted that this outlook assumes there will be no further geopolitical or energy price setbacks that could affect inflation. Additionally, Rehn stated that any future rate decisions would maintain a policy that is sufficiently restrictive to manage inflation effectively, indicating a cautious approach to ensure stability. The forthcoming wages data for Q1, expected next month, will play a crucial role in solidifying this outlook and potentially reinforcing the case for a rate cutToday, several key speeches by Federal Reserve officials will be made as the clock ticks toward the so-called quiet period ahead of the May 1 interest decision on Friday after the close. At 9:00 am, FOMC Member Jefferson will speak, likely addressing current economic conditions or monetary policy.FOMC Member Williams will follow with a speech at 12:30 pm.At 1:00 pm, FOMC Member Barkin is scheduled to speak.Shortly thereafter, at 1:15 pm, Fed Chair Powell will also make remarks.US stocks in premarket trading are higher. US yields are modestly higher after rebounding higher yesterday after better than expected retail sales data. Oil prices are lower to start the US trading day despite the Middle East conflict(s).A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins currently shows.:Crude oil is trading down $-0.45 or -0.49% at $84.96. At this time yesterday, the price was at $84.95Gold is trading down $-9.30 or -0.39% at $2372.82. At this time yesterday, the price was $2359.67Silver is trading down $0.58 or -2.0% at $28.26. At this time yesterday, the price was at $28.52Bitcoin currently trades at $62,980. At this time yesterday, the price was trading at $66,097. Bitcoin has not been the safe haven, but the risk-off this time:In the premarket, the major indices are trading higher:Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 239.89 points. Yesterday, the index fell -248.13 or -0.68% at 37735.12S&P futures are implying a gain of 11.43 points. Yesterday, the index fell -61.59 points or -1.20% at 5061.81Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 28.17 points. Yesterday, the index fell -290.08 points or -1.79% at 15885.02The European indices are trading lower:German DAX, -0.96%France CAC , -0.96%UK FTSE 100, -1.24%Spain's Ibex, -0.82%Italy's FTSE MIB,[…]
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NZDUSD Technical Analysis
Apr 16, 2024 | 05:09 amUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. NZDThe RBNZ kept its official cash rate unchanged as expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period.The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.The labour market report beat expectations across the board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in expansion. The market expects the first cut in August.NZDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD sold off hard following another hot US CPI report and dropped into the key support zone around the 0.5870 level. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the low at 0.5780, although they will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the 50% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can also find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the blue 8 moving average. If we get a pullback from the support zone, we can expect the sellers to lean on the minor trendline to position for a break below the support with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and increase the bullish bets into the major trendline around the 0.6040 level. NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the minor trendline where we will find the sellers waiting to increase the bearish bets into new lows. If the price were to break higher though, a reversal will be confirmed, and we could see a rally into the 0.60 handle as the buyers will increase the bullish bets. Upcoming EventsTomorrow we have the New Zealand CPI, while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/JPY Analysis: Surpassing Japanese Intervention Levels
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:22 amThe sharp uptrend in the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen USD/JPY continued, with gains reaching the resistance level of 154.44, the highest for the currency pair in 34 years.
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Industrial production. USA, 15:15 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:15 amAt 15:15 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in the United States. The indicator records changes in the volume of output of industrial goods and utilities in the country. Its calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may change from 0.1% to 0.4% MoM, supporting the American dollar. Read more
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GBP/USD Analysis: Strong Selling Pressure
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:13 amFor the second week in a row, the GBP/USD pair has been completing its strong downward correction path, which has pushed it towards the 1.2425 support level, its lowest in five months.
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AUDUSD Technical Analysis
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:11 amUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. AUDThe RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and finally dropped the tightening bias.The last Monthly CPI report came in line with expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior month.The latest labour market report missed expectations by a big margin.The wage price index surprised to the upside as wage growth in Australia remains strong.The latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI falling further into contraction while the Services PMI continue to increase and remain in expansion.The market expects the first rate cut in November.AUDUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD fell below the 0.6440 low and extended the selloff into the 0.64 handle. The price is a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. In this case, the pullback would also coincide with the support now turned resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which will be a nice zone for the sellers to enter the market again with a better risk to reward setup. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current downward momentum with the blue 8 moving average acting as dynamic resistance. We can expect the sellers to lean on this trendline with a defined risk above it to position for further downside. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the 0.65 resistance zone. AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, if get a pullback, the sellers should lean on the trendline where they will also find the confluence of the trendline, the Fibonacci retracement levels and the red 21 moving average. If the price were to break higher though, the reversal will be confirmed, and the buyers will pile in for a rally into the 0.65 resistance zone. Upcoming EventsOn Thursday we get the Australian jobs data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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Gold Analysis: Uptrend May Continue for Long Time
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:05 amAt the start of trading this week, gold traded below the new high it hit last week, even after Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend.
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US Dollar Breaks Resistance: Opportunities in USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:01 amThe US Dollar has continued to advance following its bullish breakout in late March from a consolidating triangle formation.
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Currency war and geopolitical risk are deadly concoctions for risk assets
Apr 16, 2024 | 04:00 amThe odds have inched higher for a currency war scenario where the Chinese yuan may be weakened further to drive export growth due to its latest decelerating growth trend in China’s retail sales and persistent weak housing prices. Export-oriented countries may be forced to enact “beggar-thy-neighbour” typed monetary policies to deliberately weaken their respective currencies. […]
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EUR/USD Analysis: Nearest Buying Levels
Apr 16, 2024 | 03:54 amAmid a pessimistic outlook, the heavy losses suffered by the euro price last week against the US dollar open the door to further declines in the coming days.
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Housing starts. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 amAt 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will present March data on the number of new houses, the construction of which began in the reporting month. It is one of the most important indicators of the American construction market. It may decrease from 1.521M to 1.480M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more
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Building permits. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 amAt 14:30 (GMT+2), the US will publish March data on the number of building permits issued. The indicator records monthly changes in the number of applications registered by the US government for the construction of real estate and is one of the most important indicators of the sector. It may change from 1.524M to 1.514M, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more
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Consumer price index. Canada, 14:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 03:30 amAt 14:30 (GMT+2) in Canada, March data on the consumer price index will be published, which is the main indicator of inflation in the country, reflecting changes in retail prices for a certain “basket” of goods and services: food, transport, utility costs, healthcare, and so on, and also significantly influences the decisions of regulators in the field of monetary policy. It may change from 0.3% to 0.7% MoM and from 2.8% to 3.1% YoY. Read more
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GBP/USD dips after weak employment data
Apr 16, 2024 | 03:10 amThe British pound dropped 0.30% after today’s UK employment report but has recovered most of these losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2452, up 0.05%. UK job growth slides, unemployment rises The UK employment report was weaker than expected. Job growth took a hard hit in the three months to February as […]
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Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis
Apr 16, 2024 | 02:54 amYesterday, the Nasdaq Composite opened higher as we got some risk on sentiment following the news of de-escalation between Iran and Israel after the Iran retaliation. The market came under pressure at the open as the US Retail Sales beat expectations by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures. The data continues to run hot and therefore push backword rate cuts expectations. In the second half of the trading session, we got news of Israel intending to retaliate shortly triggering another wave of risk off flows which led to some key technical breaks exacerbating the selloff. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nasdaq Composite sold off into the first key support level at 15929 following the hot US Retail Sales and the geopolitical news. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the next support at 15453.Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke out of the 3-week long range and triggered more bearish momentum as the sellers piled in more aggressively to target a break below the 15929 support. After the breakout of the rising wedge, the market started to rollover from the highs and the chances of seeing a correction all the way down to the base of the pattern at 14477 increase by the day. Nasdaq Composite Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we now have a trendline defining the current downward momentum where we can find the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the blue 8 moving average. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. Upcoming EventsThis week is a bit empty on the data front with just one notable report left on Thursday as we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Watch out also for hawkish signals from Fed speakers throughout the week and Fed Chair Powell today. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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NASDAQ Forecast: Continues to See Buyers Overall
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:43 amThe Nasdaq 100 has rallied a bit during the early hours on Monday, as perhaps there's been a big sigh of relief that the Middle Eastern conflict hasn’t expanded.
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GBP/CHF Forex Signal: Swiss Franc Weak
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:34 amThe British pound has rallied rather significantly during the trading session here on Monday, and the Swiss franc continues to be a funding currency.
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USDCAD Technical Analysis - Key levels to watch for a dip-buying opportunity
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:34 amUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. CADThe BoC left interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected changing a line in the statement that indicated less concern about inflation and thus the possibility of a cut in June if the trend remains intact.The latest Canadian CPI missed expectations across the board with the underlying inflation measures falling.On the labour market side, the latest report missed expectations across the board although we saw an uptick in wage growth which is something that the BoC is watching closely.The Canadian Manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March while the Services PMI weakened further. Both the measures remain in contractionary territory. The market expects the first rate cut in June.USDCAD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDCAD broke through the key 1.3620 resistance following another hot US CPI report and extended the rally into the 1.38 handle. The price got a bit overstretched as depicted by the distance from the blue 8 moving average. In such instances, we can generally see a pullback into the moving average or some consolidation before the next move. In this case, a pullback would also coincide with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level where the buyers will likely step in to position for a rally into a new cycle high. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor trendline defining the current upward momentum with the red 21 moving average adding some extra support. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline to position for another rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a drop into the next trendline around the 1.3660 level where there will also be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level adding extra support. USDCAD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of a weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the minor trendline where we can also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. A break to the downside would confirm a reversal though and trigger a drop into the base of the divergent formation around the 1.3660 level.Upcoming EventsToday we will see the Canadian CPI, while on Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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USD/SGD Analysis: Near-Term Trend Higher Resembles a Staircase Climb
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:29 amThe climb higher in the USD/SGD has continued this morning and values are being sustained.
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USD/BRL Analysis: Burst Higher Has Brought Long-Term Values into Play
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:14 amThe upwards track of the USD/BRL likely has some in Brazil nervous.
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DAX Forecast: Strong with a Bounce
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:08 amThe German Dax has shown the market to show upward pressure with the €18,000 level, an area that a lot of people will be looking at as and an area of interest.
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CHF/JPY Forecast: Carry Trade Currencies Battle on Monday
Apr 16, 2024 | 01:05 amThe Swiss franc in the Japanese yen are both very low yielding currencies and are quite often used to fund so-called “carry trades.”
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CAC Forecast: Paris Gives Up Early Gains
Apr 16, 2024 | 00:49 amThe Parisian CAC 40 has initially rallied during the training session on Monday, but has given back in the early gain.
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USDJPY Technical Analysis
Apr 16, 2024 | 00:16 amUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. JPYThe BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates policy as expected at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place.The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it continues to hover around cycle lows.The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in contractionary territory.The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.The Tokyo CPI, which is seen as a leading indicator for National CPI, came in line with expectations.The market expects another rate hike from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.USDJPY Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY finally broke out of the consolidation following another hot US CPI report. This breakout opened the door for much higher prices with no real resistance in sight until the 160.00 handle. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the previous resistance now turned support where we can also find the confluence of the trendline and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to invalidate the bullish setup and position for a drop into the next major trendline around the 146.00 handle. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have another trendline where the buyers can lean onto in case of a pullback where they will also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level for confluence. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to position for a break below the 151.92 support zone with a better risk to reward ratio. USDJPY Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it could be a signal for a pullback into the trendline and the Fibonacci retracement level around the 152.50 level. The price will need to break below the most recent swing low at 153.87 to confirm the bigger pullback as the sellers will likely pile in more aggressively to target the 152.50 level. Upcoming EventsOn Thursday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI. See the video below This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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ZEW economic sentiment. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 amAt 11:00 (GMT+2), the April EU business sentiment index from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of institutional investors and analysts who are optimistic and pessimistic. It may rise from 33.5 points to 37.2 points, supporting the euro. Read more
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Trade balance. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 amAt 11:00 (GMT+2), the EU will publish February trade balance data, recording the difference between payments for exported and imported goods. It may increase from 11.4B euros, supporting the euro. Read more
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ZEW economic conditions. Germany, 11:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 16, 2024 | 00:00 amAt 11:00 (GMT+2), the April index of current economic conditions in Germany from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) will be published. The indicator reflects the prevailing sentiment among financial analysts in Germany, and the subject of the study is the most important indicators: inflation, interest rates, stock indices, exchange rates, and oil prices. It may continue its negative trend from −80.5 points to −82.0 points, putting pressure on the euro. Read more
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GBPUSD Technical Analysis - Key levels to watch for a pullback
Apr 15, 2024 | 22:52 pmUSDThe Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the unemployment rate lower.The US CPI beat expectations for the third consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts.The US NFP beat expectations across the board although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to the lowest level in 4 years.The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures.The market now expects the first rate cut in September. GBPThe BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. The employment report missed expectations with an uptick in the unemployment rate and an easing in wage growth.The UK CPI missed expectations across the board but with Services inflation remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance.The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI missing expectations slightly and the Manufacturing PMI beating. The market sees a 50/50 chance of a rate cut in June.GBPUSD Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that GBPUSD finally broke out of the 4-month range and extended the drop into the 1.24 handle before finding some support. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a much better risk to reward setup around the trendline where they will also find the confluence with the red 21 moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Alternatively, they might also lean on the support turned resistance around the 1.2510 level where they will find the confluence of the blue 8 moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we got a fakeout above the trendline last week and then the huge selloff following the US CPI release. We can also see that we have a minor trendline defining the current downward momentum. The sellers might lean on this trendline with a defined risk above it to position for further downside although the risk to reward wouldn’t be optimal. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a rally into the major trendline and eventually target a break above it. GBPUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price has been diverging with the MACD, which is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, the target for the pullback should be the minor trendline while a break to the upside would confirm a reversal and trigger a rally into the base of the divergent formation around the 1.2570 level. Upcoming EventsToday we will see the UK jobs data. Tomorrow, we have the UK CPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales. This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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Employment change 3M/3M. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pmAt 08:00 (GMT+2), the UK will publish February employment data for the previous three-month period, showing changes in the number of employed citizens in the country. It may continue its negative trend from –21.0K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more
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Unemployment rate. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pmAt 08:00 (GMT+2), February unemployment data will be published in the UK, recording the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may adjust from 3.9% to 4.0%. Read more
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Claimant count. UK, 08:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 21:00 pmAt 08:00 (GMT+2), March data on changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be published in the UK. The rate measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time in a given month. It may change from 16.8K to 17.2K, putting pressure on the pound. Read more
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Market Insights Podcast – Pause in oil rally, UK and Japan inflation, China Q1 GDP are the focus for this week
Apr 15, 2024 | 18:38 pmOANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong joins Jonny Hart to discuss this week’s key economic data and events. Firstly, the possible scenarios on the trajectory oil prices after its 13% rally seen in the past month amid geopolitical tensions in Middle East with fears of tic-for-tact retaliation moves between Israel and Iran. Secondly, the adverse […]
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Unemployment rate. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pmAt 04:00 (GMT+2), March unemployment data will be published in China, reflecting the percentage of registered unemployed people over 18 years to the total working-age population. It may fall from 5.3% to 5.2%. Read more
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Retail sales. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pmAt 04:00 (GMT+2), March data on retail sales will be presented in China. The indicator records the monthly volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on samples of retail stores of different types and sizes. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and has a significant impact on gross domestic product (GDP). It may adjust from 5.5% to 5.1% YoY. Read more
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Gross domestic product. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pmAt 04:00 (GMT+2), Chinese data on Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) will be published. It is the main indicator reflecting the state of the national economy, considering domestic consumption, investment, government spending, and exports. It may consolidate at 1.0% QoQ and drop from 5.2% to 4.8% YoY. Read more
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Industrial production. China, 04:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 17:00 pmAt 04:00 (GMT+2), March data on industrial production will be published in China, reflecting changes in the volume of production of goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It may decrease from 7.0% to 6.4% YoY, putting pressure on the yuan. Read more
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GBP/USD eyes UK employment release
Apr 15, 2024 | 08:12 amThe British pound is steady on Monday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2445, up 0.05%. US retail sales climb 0.7% US consumers continue to shop and spend as March retail sales was stronger than expected. Retail sales rose 0.7% m/m, up from a revised 0.9% gain in February and above the […]
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Euro ends slide as industrial production rebounds
Apr 15, 2024 | 05:14 amThe euro has stabilized on Monday after sustaining sharp losses on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0656, up 0.14%. The US dollar posted strong gains last week against the majors and surged 1.8% against the euro, which fell to a six-month low. Eurozone industrial production rebounded 0.8% m/m in February following […]
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Retail Sales. USA, 14:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 03:30 amAt 14:30 (GMT+2) March data on retail sales will be published in the United States. The indicator captures the volume of all goods sold by retailers, based on a sample of stores of different types and sizes, and is an important indicator of consumer spending with a significant impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The value is expected to correct from 0.6% to 0.8% in March, while the core indicator will rise from 0.3% to 0.5%. Read more
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NZ dollar slides to five-month low
Apr 15, 2024 | 03:13 amThe New Zealand dollar has stabilized on Monday after as sharp decline of 1% on Friday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5945, up 0.14%. The New Zealand dollar dropped as low as 0.5927 earlier, its lowest point since November 14. NZ Services PSI declines New Zealand’s services sector had a dismal March, […]
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Gold Technical: At risk of mean reversion corrective decline after 19% gain
Apr 15, 2024 | 00:12 amCommitments of Traders aggregate net bullish open positions of large speculators in the Gold futures market have flashed a bearish contrarian condition. The recent rally in Gold (XAU/USD) has been primarily driven by an increase in geopolitical risk premium arising from Middle East tensions. A lack of fresh catalysts after the latest Iran retaliation offensive […]
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Industrial Production. EU, 11:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 15, 2024 | 00:00 amAt 11:00 (GMT+2) February data on the volume of industrial production of eurozone countries will be published, which reflect changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country, taking into account the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electricity sector. On an annualized basis, the figure is expected to correct from -6.7% to -2.9%, and on a monthly basis - from -3.2% to -1.8%, putting pressure on the euro's position. Read more
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Unemployment Rate. Turkey, 09:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 14, 2024 | 22:00 pmAt 09:00 (GMT+2) February data on the Unemployment Rate will be published in Turkey. This indicator records all persons aged 15 years and older who were not employed during the reporting period, who used at least one of the job search channels in the last three months, as well as citizens who are already employed or have become self-employed, but are awaiting registration of the necessary documents. If the value continues to rise in February from the current 9.1%, this could put pressure on the lira's positions. Read more
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Producer Price Index. Switzerland, 08:30 (GMT+2)
Apr 14, 2024 | 21:30 pmMarch data on the Swiss Producer Price Index are due at 08:30 (GMT+2). The indicator records changes in the cost of goods, components and raw materials on the wholesale market and is one of the most important indicators of inflation. If it continues its negative trend from -2.0% on a monthly basis and from 0.1% on an annual basis, this will act as a driver for the decline in franc quotes. Read more
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Baker Hughes oil rig count. USA, 19:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 12, 2024 | 08:00 amAt 19:00 (GMT+2), data on the number of active oil rigs from Baker Hughes will be published. The weekly report records changes in oil production capacity in the United States. It rose to 508 units earlier, and a continuation of the trend will put pressure on oil prices. Read more
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NZ dollar slips as manufacturing softens
Apr 12, 2024 | 06:02 amThe New Zealand dollar is down sharply on Friday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5956, down 0.68%. The US dollar has moved higher against the majors and NZD/USD has declined about 1% this week. NZ manufacturing PMI contracts for 13th straight month Manufacturing has been an Achilles heel for many of […]
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Michigan consumer sentiment. USA, 16:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 12, 2024 | 05:00 amAt 16:00 (GMT+2), the US will publish April data on changes in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, based on a telephone survey of at least 500 American households and records of consumer spending that is part of economic activity. The value is expected to decrease from 79.4 points to 79.0 points, putting pressure on the American dollar. Read more
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Euro can’t find its footing after ECB pause
Apr 12, 2024 | 04:20 amThe euro continues to stumble and is down for a fourth straight day. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0653, down 0.67%. The euro has fallen 1.7% this week as the US dollar continues to flex its muscles against the major currencies. ECB holds rates, hints at a June cut The European Central […]
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US DJIA Technical: Major US banks’ Q1 earnings in the focus over adverse macro factors
Apr 12, 2024 | 02:57 amThree major US banks; JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will report their Q1 2024 earnings results today. JPMorgan Chase is ranked 13th in terms of component weightage in the DJIA. Analysts’ Q1 earnings estimates for these three US banks have been lowered which increases the possibility of positive earnings surprises. Technical analysis suggests a […]
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Pound slips to 4.5-month low, UK GDP ticks higher
Apr 12, 2024 | 02:55 amThe British pound has edged lower on Friday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.47%. The pound is down 1.1% this week and fell to 1.2489 earlier today, its lowest point since November 23. UK economy ekes out a 0.1% gain It wasn’t a spectacular GDP report but a gain is […]
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Industrial production. UK, 09:00 (GMT+2)
Apr 11, 2024 | 22:00 pmAt 09:00 (GMT+2), February data on industrial production will be published in the UK. The indicator records changes in the volume of production of industrial goods and utilities in the country. The calculation considers the manufacturing and mining industries, as well as the electric power industry. It is expected that it will be adjusted from 0.5% to 0.7% YoY and from –0.2% to 0.0% MoM. Read more
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Australian dollar steadies after sharp slide
Apr 11, 2024 | 07:28 amThe Australian dollar has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6524, up 0.19%. The Aussie plunged 1.75% a day earlier after US inflation accelerated and beat expectations. Fed expected to delay rate cut after hot US CPI US inflation has hit a bump, as March CPI accelerated to 3.5% […]
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Canadian dollar gets spanked, BoC holds rates
Apr 11, 2024 | 05:07 amThe Canadian dollar is almost unchanged on Thursday, after sliding 0.8% a day earlier. In the European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3569, up 0.04%. BoC holds interest rates There were no surprises from the Bank of Canada, which maintained the cash rate at 5%. This marked a sixth straight pause as the BoC continues […]
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Euro stabilizes ahead of ECB decision
Apr 11, 2024 | 02:39 amThe euro is steady on Thursday, after sliding over 1% on Wednesday following the hot US inflation report. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0745, down 0.03%. ECB widely expected to hold rates The European Central Bank meets later today and is widely expected to hold the deposit rate at 4% for a […]
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