Former Xerox CEO and the first black woman CEO of a Fortune 500 company, Ursula Burns, talks to CNN's Poppy Harlow about how Corporate America can address issues of racism and diversity.
Dan Rasmussen, the CIO and Founder of Verdad Capital Advisers, speaks with his colleague Greg Obenshain, Verdad's director of credit, to examine the credit market sell-off over the past two months. They focus on the recent widening of spreads and other areas of financial markets hit hardest by the recent acceleration. Rasmussen asks Obenshain what the biggest factors for returns in corporate credit are, the turmoil in the credit markets has impacted the energy sector, and where they see the biggest opportunities for investors will be coming out of the crisis. They also update Verdad's Fool's Yield thesis that the company has been writing about since January 2020 and that Rasmussen has presented to Real Vision members in the past few months. Filmed on March 17, 2020 over Skype.
Real Vision founder and CEO Raoul Pal is with Trevor Mottl discussing how AI can influence investment decisions. They go into the benefits of AI with regards to the advantages AI poses in modeling and analyzing. They discuss data sets, both public and private and how widespread data sets are throughout the financial industry. Mottl talks about his philosophy with regards to data and how they test possible pursuits. They conclude by discussing Mottl’s view on how he uses AI as an analyst.
Roger Hirst and Phil Cotter, Managing Director of Refinitiv's Risk Business, talk about money laundering and how new techniques are constantly evolving with new technologies because an increasing number of financial transactions are taking place online.
Trevor Mottl, managing director at Lazard Labs, speaks to Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal about how machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) can inform and transform the investment process – from idea generation to position sizing to risk management. He tells Raoul about the AI team he runs at Lazard Asset Management that uses machine learning to identify patterns in markets too complex for the human brain to recognize in order to reliably generate alpha too obscure for human investors to reliably capture. Mottl also breaks down his three-piece framework of finance – which includes pricing, time horizon, and liquidity – and explains how this framework has shaped his investment philosophy and informed his macro outlook. Filmed on May 5, 2020.
Raoul and James Aitken end their conversation with a discussion on how to deploy capital in a crisis. They discuss credit and equities, and Aitken believes that energy is within his circle of confidence. They conclude by talking about companies that we need to be able to restart the economy at a good place.
Raoul is back with James Aitken and they are back talking about the “liquidation phase.” They speak about what will happen if growth continues to trend down. There are fears of the largest “insolvency event.” They go into discussing the difficulties that bars and restaurants will face when deciding to reopen, and how we are looking for recovery. Aitken believes the global economy has turned off, and 1 billion people are waiting for a bailout at home. They end by discussing the possibility of state and local bailouts within the United States.
Raoul is back with James Aitken and they are discussing the currency markets. They discuss the US dollar and the Fed, and why the dollar isn’t weakening. Furthermore, they discuss the flow of dollar securities and the flow of them. They end by taking about Aitken’s trip to China, and the interesting aspects of the Chinese banking system.
Real Vision’s own Raoul Pal and James Aitken discuss the ECB, and the future plans for preventing fragmentation in Europe going forward. Aitken elaborates, saying that the ECB is receiving very cheap funding, and talks about their balance sheets. They then talk about bonds, and how there is a “colossal” amount of bonds to be issued. Aitken and Raoul discuss how the next few quarters are likely to be tough ones, with the possibility for Great Depression like numbers. They end by discussing a variety of topics, such as treasury securities and yields.
This week Real Vision use Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the latest conversations about monetary policies that continue to stack the rebound in favor of risk assets and large corporates, at the expense of the real economy. Are these policies continuing to damage the economy despite the recovery in equities? The Chatter looks at the sell-off in the US dollar and puts the bull vs bear debate in historical context. The Whisper looks at the potential rise of both bankruptcies and the zombie company.
James Aitken, partner at Aitken Advisors, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the intricate relationship between bond and FX markets and how this often overlooked connection is playing out at this critical juncture of the credit cycle. Aitken and Pal put the recently announced central bank policies – remarkably generous swap lines, sweeping repo facilities, and the revival of quantitative easing (QE) – in proper context and analyzes how central banks' commitment to be the "buyers of first resort" will affect cross-currency basis swaps, yields on corporates, and the U.S. dollar. Aitken also describes his investing framework to deploying capital in this unprecedented economic crisis.
Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and senior editor Ash Bennington discuss a roaring day on Wall Street as the U.S. labor market breathed a sigh of relief. Looking at everything from tech valuations to the AUD/USD trade, Raoul and Ash dive deeper into this jam-packed news day to see whether the economy really is on the mend. In the intro, Jack Farley touches on these themes and previews Raoul’s interview with Gerard Minack.
In a different type of interview, Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice end their conversation with some different questions. They delve into a myriad of personal questions, such as “If you could interview anyone who would it be?” and “What are you reading right now?” Dylan Grice a great and thoughtful response to what books are his favorites, and elaborates why. They also go into Grice’s heroes, and many other personal questions that are a very nice change of pace that give us a personal view.
Raoul Pal continues his conversation with Dylan Grice, this time talking about diversification with regards to bonds, uranium, and CLOs. Dylan Grice believes there is a potential return of 20% on CLOs. Raoul believes that many people balance risk vs. reward when deciding whether or not to invest in an asset management firm. They also talk about assets being liquid, specifically catastrophe bonds. With regards to uranium, there have been a good deal of mine shutdowns which Dylan Grice feels that investing in Uranium is more “event driven” and may be a good investment. In conclusion, Dylan Grice believes there is no substitute for “doing your homework” and stresses the need for people to be informed.
Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice discuss when and when not to hedge or go all in. Grice believes it is “easier to react than to predict.” Him and Raoul discuss this topic at length and more. He emphasizes the need to act now rather than later. With regards to asset classes, they get into which classes are interesting to see from a market perspective, and discuss how credit effects them. There is an emphasis to get hands on and get “down and dirty” with regards to the markets and understanding investments. Finally, they end with emerging markets and the possibilities surrounding them.
Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice discuss the launch of Dylan’s new asset management business and the potential risks involved with it. They then begin to discuss the potential economic ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic and the possibility of keeping borders closed for an extended period of time. The personal implications of COVID-19 are discussed, from just knowing people who have had to deal with the disease, to family who are presently dealing with it. They then go into the time period of the normal credit cycle, and how competitors can take advantage of it and how you must restructure your balance sheet because of it. Tying it all to COVID-19, Dylan Grice thinks we should “go low” and realize that we are 18-24 months away from making new highs in the market. Raoul then goes into discussion of how Dylan Grice sizes up the credit event, and he gives his thoughts on the matter.
Raoul Pal and Dylan Grice sit down to discuss his career, starting out as a banker to becoming a portfolio manager. Grice speaks on his journey on being an economist after graduating from the London School of Economics to becoming a prop trader on the equity desk, and then continuing on his career. Furthermore, Grice gets into his transition from being a “stock picker” to his next job in credit. To conclude, Dylan Grice talks on his responsibilities in his new job.
Dylan Grice, co-founder of Calderwood Capital, sits down with Raoul Pal, CEO and co-founder of Real Vision, to discuss the proper framework for successful investing in dark and uncertain times. While Grice believes that the coronavirus pandemic could trigger the "mother of all credit events," he is seeing bargains all across the asset universe, whether they're in well-known stocks, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), catastrophe bonds, or uranium. Investors are thus subject to conflicting emotions: wanting to sell everything in order to avoid a market catastrophe, as well as wanting to buy high-quality assets that are trading at fire-sale prices. Grice describes how sophisticated investors, who have been researching specific securities for years and have enough cash to take risk now, can reconcile these conflicting inclinations by holding on to enough cash and, if one must put capital to work, sticking to the mantra, "buy what you know" – staying within what Warren Buffett calls one's "circle of competence."
Roger Hirst and Sherry Madera, Refinitiv’s Chief Industry & Government Affairs Officer, talk about the details of the European rescue fund that was unveiled by Ursula Von Der Leyen, the European Commission President.